Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia Cica

CONFERENCE ON INTERACTION AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN ASIA CICA 2018 UFRGSMUN | UFRGS Model United Nations ISSN 2318-3195 | v. 6 2018 | p. 88 - 131 POWER PROJECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN: COOPERATION OR QUEST FOR DOMINANCE? Camilla Martins Pereira1 Daiana Winter Jung2 Gabriela de Mendonça Lima Penna3 ABSTRACT The main goal of the present study guide is to address the impacts and the per- sistent dynamics of the militarization of the Indian Ocean as a situation of power projection. By setting a stage of complex competition, the interactions in the Indian Ocean Region can transform not only Asian, but also global economic and political conditions, contributing to the emergence of the Asian protagonism. At first, the historical background presents an analysis dating back to the imperialist period (1870-1914), insofar as the region has long been a stage for challenges and threats until current times. Then, we expose how the current Indian Ocean situation re- presents an example of a security dilemma4 in some aspects, whilst actions taken by U.S., China and India intend to expand influence in the region. We also discuss the major strategic interests behind the militarization of the Indian Ocean, as exempli- fied by politics taken attempting to control the channels and other paths connected to the ocean. Afterwards, we highlight the main actors involved in this competition through the presentation of strategic points taken by the states or under their military influence – each one aiming at placing a secure basis for economic or military purposes – as well as the importance of Asian countries’ participation in the overall military spending of the region. 1 Camilla is a third-year student of International Relations at UFRGS and CICA’s Director. 2 Daiana is a fourth-year student of International Relations at UFRGS and CICA’s Director. 3 Gabriela is a second-year student of International Relations at UFRGS and CICA’s Assistant-Director. 4 A security dilemma may be described as a case in which a state, seeking to guarantee its own security, increases its military capabilities, being, due to this move, followed by others. This concept will be better approached in the section two of the present study guide. 89 UFRGSMUN | CONFERENCE ON INTERACTION AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN ASIA 1 INTRODUCTION By current projections, the Indian Ocean and its adjacent waters will be a cen- tral geopolitical theater in the 21st century, although some aspects of this scenario are already visible, given the number of regional actors involved, their broad range of interests and the competition amongst China, India and the U.S. The region is one of the most complexes in the world, being a space that melds commercial, energetic and security dilemmas. It is also composed by a wide variety of races, ethnicities and religions, along with socioeconomic problems and a high level of political instability and sectarian tensions (Cordner 2010; Kaplan 2010). For analytical purposes, before starting to discuss the settings involved in the unfolding security issues in the Indian Ocean, we shall establish a few key-concepts. First, there is the definition of the geographic space under analysis. Although being a controversial subject, some authors have defined the Indian Ocean as the area between 25-degree North and 60-degree South latitudes, while, longitudinally, it ex- tends from 20-degree East to 147-degree West (Cordesman and Toukan 2014). Besi- des being the third largest ocean of the world, the Indian Ocean encompasses the eastern coast of Africa, the Gulf States, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia. The Indian Ocean Region, from now on referred to as IOR, is surrounded by 56 littoral and hinterland nation-states, totaling 66,526 kilometers of coastline (Cordner 2010). In order to better understand the main risks and trends within this region, we will divide the IOR into five sub regions and refer to them throughout the article. Namely, they are: the Middle East and Gulf; the Red Sea and Horn; East Africa and Sub-Sahara; South Asia; and Southeast Asia/Oceania. The official perimeters can be seen in the image below, and include the “Andaman Sea, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Flores Sea, Great Australian Bight, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, Java Sea, Mozam- bique Channel, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Savu Sea, Strait of Malacca5, Timor Sea, and other [...] water bodies” (Cordesman and Toukan 2014, 19). The present article, thus, aims at illustrating and analyzing the current situation in the IOR. In this sense, we will present the contradictions of this scenario, including not only an historical retrospective to the imperialist years, but also an examination of the challenges and threats that persisted throughout the 20th century. Following that, we shall proceed with a statement about the current “Cold War” in the region, exposing the concerning actions taken by the U.S., China and India, respectively. Also, we will highlight the strategic importance of this ocean to the concerned states, and the cooperative measures able to mitigate tensions and build trust between the states, as well as the ones taken regarding the problems among them and non-state actors. Finally, we present a short chapter regarding the pre- vious international actions taken until now, finishing with the presentation of the position of CICA’s members on this issue. 5 The Strait of Malacca is a narrow, 805 km stretch of water between the Malay Peninsula and the In- donesian island of Sumatra. It is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world despite being only 2.8 km wide. This strait is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking major Asian economies such as India, China, Japan, and South Korea. Over 60,000 vessels pass through the strait each year, carrying about one-fourth of the world’s traded goods, including oil, Chinese manufactured products, and products from other countries. About a quarter of all oil carried by sea passes through the Strait, mainly from Persian Gulf suppliers to Asian markets. In addition, it is also one of the world’s most congested shipping choke points (Zhong 2018). 90 POWER PROJECTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN: COOPERATION OR QUEST FOR DOMINANCE? IMAGE 1: THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION (IOR) Source: Kaplan 2010 2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND In order to better understand the impacts of the challenges that surround the IOR, we must analyze the regional dynamics since imperialism until the late 20th century. According to Pant (2012), the Indian Ocean has been, for a long time, the center of great power antagonism, and the battle for its governance has been a longstanding element of global politics. Geographically, the Indian Ocean has been the “home to four critical access waterways – the Suez Canal, Bab-el Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca – the Indian Ocean connects the Middle East, Africa and East Asia with Europe and the Americas” (Pant 2012, 364). It contains not only the major oil shipping lanes, but also some of the main choke points of the world – important for the international business –, being, therefore, the busiest interstate ocean according to some analysts (Kaplan 2010). Hence, economic interactions across the Indian Ocean have a long history: Since times immemorial, the IOR has been characterized by peace and pros- perity, added to an open and mutual dependence on trade. Colonial powers present since the 16th century, like the Portuguese, Dutch, French and the British, transformed it into an arena for securing their trade interests and gaining influence in the region (Chowdhury et al. 2014, 61). In the period of the colonial expansion, the Indian Ocean became the bastion of the global hegemony of the British Empire. India was a British pearl and, in many ways, was the main responsible for the economic and geopolitical rise of English hegemony (Anievas and Nisancioglu 2015). 91 UFRGSMUN | CONFERENCE ON INTERACTION AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN ASIA 2.1 A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE INDIAN OCEAN HISTORY: FROM IMPERIALISM TO THE POST-WORLD WAR II PERIOD The Indian Ocean has constituted a stage set for Western conquest going back more than five hundred years. These Western conquerors came largely for commercial reasons. Throughout the 19th century, the British became the intermediates of all the traffic amongst the Atlantic and Indian oceans. This control of sea routes was deepened with the construction of the Suez Canal (1867), in addition to the esta- blishment of military bases across the ocean, which would be capable to ensure the entrance and exit paths – especially those in Singapore (Malacca Strait) and in the Gulf of Aden. Besides, the rise of the Royal Navy in the Atlantic and in the Mediterra- nean, as well as the Industrial Revolution fueled the British Indian Ocean enterprise. Under the British East India Company administration, traditional Indian manufac- turing centers, ports and trade patterns fell into decline with the emergence of new geo-economics relations. The Indian subcontinent, which used to be economically prosperous, turned into the biggest demander of British goods and gradually lost its autonomy (Ribeiro and Otávio 2017). In the period following World War I, the hunt for oil in the Arab countries around the Gulf was intensified. Indeed, American and British companies positio- ned themselves on the region in such a way to allow them to control the world oil provisions and, consequently, its prices. Britain’s hegemony in the Indian Ocean continued until World War II, when the country’s relative economic decline and the war efforts undermined its ability to maintain a fleet of global reach, overseas colo- nies and control of distant sea routes (Ribeiro and Otávio 2017).

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