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China Education China Education Quick Learners: Initiating on the Sector EQUITIES INTERNET August 2016 By: Terry Chen and Chi Tsang https://www.research.hsbc.com China Education China China Education Quick learners: Initiating on the sector The pressure to do well in standardised exams in China has spawned a USD50bn after-school tutoring industry Our proprietary survey shows that exam reforms will support further growth and increase spending by parents Equities // Internet Initiate coverage with Buys on New Oriental Education and TAL Education – the two strongest brands that are best placed to expand their market share in this highly fragmented industry August 2016 August Disclaimer & Disclosures: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it EQUITIES INTERNET 5 August 2016 ✔ Vote in Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2016 4 July - 12 August If you value our service and insight, vote for HSBC Click here to vote Why you should read this report China has more than 150m pupils. The majority of parents pay for after-school tutoring and expect to spend even more in future Our survey shows that education reforms are likely to increase demand for these services We explain why the two market leaders are so well-placed to benefit How to be top of the class. Enormous pressure on students to perform well has turned Chinese education into big business. Millions of anxious parents will spend USD50bn this year on everything from one-on-one tutoring to late-night cram schools and online classes to help their children prepare for the country’s all important exam, the Gaokao. We look at the size, shape and style of China’s tutoring business and highlight how two companies, New Oriental Education (EDU) and TAL Education (TAL), are the only established national brands. While they command just 3% of the business, being top of the class gives them a considerable advantage and we believe their combined market share will rise to around 10% by 2025. Favourable policy changes. Reforms to the Gaokao, the national college entrance exam, are aimed at relieving pressure on students. The students will be allowed to take the English and elective exams earlier and more than once. We think the impact on the after-school tutoring industry will be positive as the changes will prolong the exam preparation cycle. Our survey. We also report the findings of an online proprietary survey we conducted into the spending, expectations and preferences of more than 1,000 sets of parents across China. They said family spending on tutoring will continue to increase every year and favour stronger tutoring brands that have online education services. Initiate. We initiate on EDU (EDU US) and TAL (XRS US) with Buy ratings. EDU and TAL are up 35% and 26% y-t-d and are trading at a leading PE of 23x and 41x, based on Bloomberg consensus, higher than their two-year average of 14x and 25x. But we think the high multiples are justified. We believe that the reforms will further stimulate the sector and that EDU and TAL can maximise the benefits of their strong brands and long track records while improving the quality, technology and delivery of their services. This should differentiate them from competitors while consolidating and expanding the now fragmented market. On an ex-cash basis, EDU and TAL are trading at 17x and 32x FY17e PE against EPS CAGR of 22% and 37% over FY17-20e. Key downside risks to our view include failing to gain market share and the emergence of a new disruptive O2O model. Company Stock Currency 2-Aug Market cap TP ADTV Rating Upside FY17e ex- FY18e ex- FY17e EPS FY18e EPS code price (USDbn) (USD) (USDm) cash PE(x) cash PE (x) growth growth New Oriental Education EDU US USD 42 6.6 56 64 Buy 32% 17 12 13% 23% TAL Education XRS US USD 58 4.7 75 40 Buy 28% 32 20 3% 45% Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates 1 EQUITIES INTERNET 5 August 2016 Contents Why you should read this report 1 Investment summary 3 Substantial demand but highly fragmented supply 12 Recent policy changes are favourable to tutoring 23 Our survey: Parents to spend more on tutoring services 30 TAL Education (XRS US) 35 New Oriental Education (EDU US) 59 Disclosure appendix 77 Disclaimer 80 2 EQUITIES INTERNET 5 August 2016 Investment summary Already a USD50bn industry, after-school tutoring is set for further growth, reflecting the results of our parent survey The sector is highly fragmented but the two leaders will strengthen their positions as the industry develops further Initiate coverage with Buys on both New Oriental Education (EDU) and TAL Education (TAL) There is only one right answer to the question, Does it matter how well a Chinese student does After-school tutoring industry to reach USD50bn in 2016 in the country’s standardised examination system? There is also only one conclusion to be drawn from that: despite its already large size, revenues generated by the country’s after-school tutoring industry will continue to grow from the current level USD50bn. This is a long-term structural growth story and, as detailed below, our survey found that a majority of parents expect recent Gaokao reforms to either maintain or increase pressure on students to perform in these exams. As such, we estimate the industry will exceed USD60bn in revenues in 2018e and reach more than USD75bn in 2025e. There is not, however, only one, or even a few, tutoring companies at the top of the class. It is 18% 10-year revenue CAGR for the two market leaders currently a very fragmented sector. But we think the two current leaders are going to carry on getting the best scores, even though they together only command around 3% of the market. This is because they have well-established brands, their teaching quality is ever improving and they have plans to expand, including through their various online initiatives. So we expect New Oriental Education (EDU) and TAL Education (TAL) will continue to outpace the smaller tutoring agencies and that their combined market share is likely to grow from 3% in 2016 to 10% in 2025, translating into a 18% revenue CAGR. In addition, advances in technology will allow EDU and TAL to further widen the gap in teaching quality with the smaller players, which will in turn accelerate market consolidation. Exhibit 1: EDU’s student enrolment Exhibit 2: TAL’s student enrolment (000) 8,000 (000) 30% 8,000 60% 6,589 25% 50% 6,000 5,387 6,000 5,016 4,808 20% 40% 4,222 4,000 3,645 15% 4,000 3,603 30% 2,896 10% 2,310 20% 2,000 2,000 1,494 5% 10% - 0% - 0% FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Total student enrolments (000) Total student enrollments (000) YoY growth (%) YoY growth (%) Source: EDU, HSBC estimates Source: TAL, HSBC estimates 3 EQUITIES INTERNET 5 August 2016 How the virtuous business model works In this report, we examine the strategies of companies seeking to lead this burgeoning industry. Better teaching quality, better academic results, stronger We see a ‘virtuous cycle’ for the tutoring business model which entrenches the position of those demand companies which successfully implement it. This starts with the hiring of high quality teachers. Normally the new supply comes from the annual pool of graduating university students. EDU and TAL compete to recruit the best teaching talents from high-tier universities and then spend up to six months training them. The relatively superior teaching capability in turn allows them to attract more students with higher academic potential. As a result, quality leads to better results over time and better results to more demand as the brands are reinforced. This is a proven business model for both EDU and TAL and they are already trying to replicate in lower-tier cities the success they are having in the high-tier ones. While we expect the industry to consolidate over the medium to longer-term, we think it is unlikely Education business relies on viral marketing that a third pan-national player will emerge in this industry given the difficulties involved and investments required to build a strong, large-scale and competitive education franchise. In particular, while barriers to entry may be low at the localised lower end of the value chain, they rise rapidly as the scale of the operation increases and as the service offering becomes more complex. In fact, increasing scale provides a number of benefits for the after school tutoring companies. For example, smaller tutoring agencies may have to pay more to attract quality teachers than stronger brands such as EDU and TAL, which will lead to further relative margin pressures. The brands of EDU and TAL are now so well-established that they do not need to incur significant marketing spending to support their already strong revenue growth. Low selling and marketing expenses reflect their reliance on word-of-mouth referrals. Furthermore, the relative scale of EDU and TAL allows them to invest in new products, technologies and delivery models and develop new competitive differentiators. Exhibit 3: How to build a successful tutoring business model High quality teachers Strong demand, Larger scale, more selective better pay in student admission Outstanding academic results, better reputation Source: HSBC 4 EQUITIES INTERNET 5 August 2016 Exhibit 4: After-school tutoring market size 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e CAGR growth 2025e 2014-18 Primary a 95 95 95 95 95 100 Middle school b 44 42 41 40 40 42 High school c 24 23 21 20 20 20 Total K-12 student base d = a + b +c 162 159 156 154 155 -1% 162 Urbanization ratio e 55% 56% 58% 60% 62% 66% Urban student
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