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american academy of arts & sciences summer 2006 Bulletin vol. lix, no. 4 Page 6 Is Science Under Siege? Harold Varmus

Page 12 Active Liberty: Interpreting Our Democratic Constitution Stephen G. Breyer

Page 36 Innovation: The Creative Blending of Art and Science George Lucas, Rob Coleman, and John Hennessy

Page 44 Threats to the Rule of Law: State Courts, Public Expectations, and Political Attitudes Margaret H. Marshall and Ronald M. George

inside: New Academy Leaders, Page 1 Remembrance of Jaroslav Pelikan by Martin E. Marty, Page 5 Tax Reform by James Poterba and Michael J. Graetz, Page 17 Preparing for Pandemics by Barry R. Bloom and Howard Koh, Page 28 american academy of arts & sciences Norton’s Woods 136 Irving Street Cambridge, ma 02138-1996 usa telephone 617-576-5000 facsimile 617-576-5050 email [email protected] website www.amacad.org Calendar of Events

Thursday, Saturday, September 7, 2006 November 11, 2006 Meeting–New York Stated Meeting–Chicago Cohosted by New York University’s John War and Peace in the Operas of Giuseppe Verdi Brademas Center for the Study of Congress Contents Speaker: Philip Gossett, University of The Broken Branch: How Congress is Failing Chicago America and How to Get It Back on Track Academy News 1 Location:Gleacher Center, University of Speakers: Norman Ornstein , American Chicago A Remembrance 5 Enterprise Institute, and Thomas Mann, Brookings Institution Time: 5:30 p.m.

Academy Lectures Location: Kimmel Center for University Life, Thursday, New York University December 7, 2006 Is Science Under Siege? Harold Varmus 6 Time: 4:00 p.m. Meeting–New York City The Future of News Active Liberty: Interpreting Our Saturday, Democratic Constitution October 7, 2006 Speakers: Ann Moore, Time, Inc.; Norman Stephen G. Breyer 12 Stated Meeting and Induction Pearlstine, Time Warner; John Carroll, Joan Ceremony–Cambridge Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics & Tax Reform: Current Problems, Possible Public Policy, Harvard University; Geneva Solutions, and Unresolved Questions Location: Sanders Theatre, Overholser, University of Missouri School James Poterba and Harvard University of Journalism; Jeff Jarvis, BuzzMachine.com Michael J. Graetz 17 and cuny; and Jill Abramson , New York Time: 3:30 p.m. Times Preparing for Pandemics Location:Time-Life Building Barry R. Bloom and Monday, Howard Koh 28 October 30, 2006 Time: 5:30 p.m. Meeting–Cambridge Innovation: The Creative Blending of Our Undemocratic Constitution: Where the U.S. Wednesday, Art and Science December 13, 2006 George Lucas, Rob Coleman, Constitution Goes Wrong (and How We the and John Hennessy 36 People Can Correct It) Stated Meeting–Cambridge Speaker: Sanford Levinson, University Speaker: Ellen T. Harris, mit Threats to the Rule of Law: State Courts, of Texas at Austin Public Expectations, and Political Attitudes Location:House of the Academy Margaret H. Marshall and Respondents: Robert C. Post, Yale Ronald M. George 44 University, and Barney Frank, U.S. House of Representatives For information and reservations, contact Noteworthy 54 Location: House of the Academy the Events Of½ce (phone: 617-576-5032; email: [email protected]). From the Archives 56 Time: 6:00 p.m.

Wednesday, November 8, 2006 Stated Meeting–Cambridge Location: House of the Academy Academy News New Of½cers and Councilor

The results of the spring ballot for the election of Of½cers, Councilors, and Members of the Membership Committee have been tabulated. Brief biographies of the new Of½cers and Councilor are printed below. We thank the Fellows who participated in the election process. The positions open in 2007 are listed on page 4.

in which the central nervous system gener- Vanderbilt University. After serving a resi- ates voluntary movement. His current re- dency and a National Institute of Health search centers on understanding how motor postdoctoral fellowship at Yale-New Haven skills are learned. Bizzi’s laboratory has de- Hospital, he continued his nih-sponsored veloped a theoretical and experimental research in metabolism and endocrinology framework to describe the way in which the at ucsd. During his tenure there, he served central nervous system transforms planned as Chief of the Division of Endocrinology movements into muscle activations. His and Metabolism, Chair of the Faculty of Basic work is of critical importance in the design Biomedical Sciences, Dean for Scienti½c of neuroprosthetics for amputees or in- Affairs, and interim Director of the Moores dividuals with motor disabilities. He has Comprehensive Cancer Center. He is received several honors for his research and presently Dean for Translational Medicine academic work, including the W. Alden and Director of the College of Integrative Spencer Award, the Hermann von Helmoltz Life Sciences. He has been a member of Award for Excellence in Neuroscience, and, numerous scienti½c boards and of the in 2005, the President of Italy Gold Medal editorial board of many professional Emilio Bizzi for achievements in science. journals. A member of the National Academy of Gill’s laboratory studies hormoneaction and President Sciences, the Institute of Medicine, and the signal transduction, the molecular mecha- Italian National Academy (Accademia nisms through which information is received Emilio Bizzi, a leading brain scientist Nazionale dei Lincei), Bizzi was elected to and translated into biological responses. As and Institute Professor at the Massachu- the American Academy in 1980. He served as a key participant in the growth of medical setts Institute of Technology, has been Secretary of the Academy from 1998– 2005 research at ucsd with a commitment to elected to serve as the 44th President of and is a member of the Academy Trust. In improving graduate medical education, Gill the Academy. He will take of½ce at the 2004, he organized a joint meeting of the has advocated efforts to strengthen the role Induction Ceremony in Cambridge on American Academy and the Lincei in Rome. of the physician-scientist and the active October 7, 2006. involvement of clinical investigators in Born in Rome, Bizzi received his M.D. and biomedical research. Ph.D. (Docenza) from the University of Vice President, Rome. He came to the United States in 1963 Western Region to conduct research at Washington Univer- Gordon N. Gill, a physician and researcher, sity in St. Louis and at the National Institute is the new Vice President of the Academy’s of Mental Health. In 1969 he joined the mit Western Region. A member of the Academy faculty where he has served as Director of for the past ten years, Gill has served as Chair the Whitaker College of Health Sciences, of the membership section for medicine and Technology, and Management (1983–1989) public health and as Cochair of the Western and as Chair of the Department of Brain and Region. Cognitive Sciences (1986–1997). Gill is Emeritus Professor of Medicine and Bizzi’s early career work included a study of Cellular and Molecular Medicine at the of the neurophysiological mechanisms of University of California, San Diego. He sleep. Subsequently, he investigated the way received his B.A. and M.D. degrees from

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 1 Councilor In addition to teaching at ucla, and the Of½cers of the New Membership he was Dean of the Weinberg Academy: Committee Chairs: Eric Sundquist, a leading scholar College of Arts and Sciences at of American literature and cul- Northwestern University from President Patricia Meyer Spacks Edward A. Feigenbaum, I:6 ture and African American stud- 1997–2002. (University of Virginia) Stanford University ies, has been elected to the Acad- emy Council as a representative President-elect Emilio Bizzi Thomas W. Cline, II:2 of Class IV: Humanities and Arts. Members of the Council (mit) University of California, A Fellow of the Academy since include: Berkeley 1997, he is ucla Foundation Chief Executive Of½cer Professor of Literature and a Robert Alberty(mit) Leslie C. Berlowitz Michael Gazzaniga, II:3 member of the Department of University of California, English at the University of Cali- Gerald Early (Washington Vice President and Chair of the Santa Barbara fornia, Los Angeles. He received University in St. Louis) his B.A. from the University of Academy Trust Louis W. Cabot (Cabot-Wellington ) Jean D. Wilson, II:5 Kansas and his Ph.D. from Johns Carol Gluck llc University of Texas Hopkins University. (Columbia University) Treasurer John Reed Southwestern Medical Center Sundquist is the author or editor (New York City) Linda Greenhouse of nine books including Strangers Phoebe C. Ellsworth, III:1 (The New York Times) in the Land: Blacks, Jews, Post- Secretary Jerrold Meinwald University of Michigan Holocaust America (2005) and To Charles M. Haar (Cornell University) Wake the Nations: Race in the Mak- III (Harvard University) Alan Krueger, :2 ing of American Literature (1993), Editor Steven Marcus Princeton University which received the James Russell Jerome Kagan (Columbia University) Lowell Prize from the Modern (Harvard University) Kathleen M. Sullivan, III:4 Language Association for the Librarian Robert C. Post Stanford University best book published during the John Katzenellenbogen (Yale University) year and the Christian Gauss (University of Illinois at Jane A. Bernstein, IV:5 Award from Phi Beta Kappa for Urbana-Champaign) Vice President, Western Region Tufts University the best book in the humanities. Gordon N. Gill (University of Recognized for his breadth of Neal Lane(Rice University) California, San Diego) knowledge of both American history and literature, his other Richard Meserve (Carnegie Vice President, Midwest Region works include Home as Found: Institution of Washington) Geoffrey Stone (University of Authority and Genealogy in Nine- Chicago) teenth-CenturyAmerican Literature David D. Sabatini (nyu) (1979), Faulkner: the House Divided (1983), and The Hammers of Crea- Randy Schekman (University tion: Folk Culture in Modern African- of California, Berkeley) American Fiction (1992). His con- tribution to Volume 2 of the Eric Sundquist (University Cambridge History of American of California, Los Angeles) Literature (1995) has recently been reprinted as Empire and Slavery in American Literature, 1820–1865 (2006). He has also edited essay collections and anthologies on American realism, Frederick Douglass, Mark Twain, W.E.B. DuBois, and Ralph Ellison. From 1991–1997, Sund- quist was general editor of the Cambridge University Press series Studies in American Litera- Gordon N. Gill Eric Sundquist ture and Culture . Vice President, Western Region Councilor

2 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 University Af½liates Visiting Scholars Program A growing group of colleges and universities throughout the Postdoctoral and Junior Faculty country are collaborating with the Academy by participating in its studies on higher education and helping to support its Visiting Fellowships Scholars Program. The Academy is grateful to these University Af½liates for their con½dence in the Academy’s efforts to support 2007–2008 interdisciplinary research and to expand opportunities for postdoctoral scholars and junior faculty. Postmark Deadline: October 16, 2006 American University–Cornelius Kerwin, Interim President Boston University–Robert A. Brown, President Brandeis University–Jehuda Reinharz, President The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an international Brown University–Ruth J. Simmons, President learned society and research institute in Cambridge, Massa- The City University of New York–Matthew Goldstein, Chancellor chusetts, invites postdoctoral scholars and untenured junior Columbia University–Lee C. Bollinger, President faculty to apply for research fellowships for the 2007–2008 Cornell University–David J. Skorton, President year. Dartmouth College–James Wright, President Duke University–Richard H. Brodhead, President The Academy is especially interested in proposals that relate to Emory University–James W. Wagner, President its current projects in the following areas: Humanities & Culture, George Washington University–Stephen J. Trachtenberg, President Science & Global Security, Social Policy & American Institu- Harvard University–Derek Bok, Interim President tions, and Education. For more information on these studies, Indiana University–Adam W. Herbert, President please visit the Academy’s website (www.amacad.org/ Johns Hopkins University–William R. Brody, President projects.aspx). Projects that address American cultural, social, –Susan Hock½eld, President Massachusetts Institute of Technology or political issues from the founding period to the present are Michigan State University–Lou Anna K. Simon, President eligible, as are studies that consider developments in public New York University–John Sexton, President Northwestern University–Henry S. Bienen, President policy from a multidisciplinary and/or comparative perspec- Ohio State University–Karen A. Holbrook, President tive. Projects that relate to the history of the Academy, drawing Pennsylvania State University–Graham Spanier, President on its historic holdings, and to the history of science and tech- Princeton University–Shirley Tilghman, President nology from the late eighteenth century to the present are en- Rice University–David W. Leebron, President couraged. Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey– Richard L. McCormick, President Visiting Scholars are expected to participate in conferences, Smith College–Carol T. Christ, President seminars, and events at the Academy while advancing their Stanford University–John L. Hennessy, President independent research; they must be in residence during their Syracuse University–Nancy Cantor, President and Chancellor fellowship year. Tufts University–Lawrence S. Bacow, President University of California, Berkeley–Robert J. Birgeneau, Chancellor Terms of Award: Up to $35,000 stipend for postdoctoral schol- University of California, Davis–Larry N. Vanderhoef, Chancellor ars; up to $50,000 for junior faculty (not to exceed one-half of University of California, Irvine–Michael V. Drake, Chancellor salary). University of California, Los Angeles–Norman Abrams, Acting Chancellor University of California, San Diego–Marye Anne Fox, Chancellor For details, contact: The Visiting Scholars Program, American University of Chicago–Robert J. Zimmer, President Academy of Arts and Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign–Richard Herman, Chancellor ma02138-1996; phone: 617- 576-5014; fax: 617-576-5050; email: University of Iowa–Gary Fethke, Interim President [email protected]. University of Maryland–C. D. Mote, Jr., President University of Michigan–Mary Sue Coleman, President Application information is available on the Academy’s website University of Minnesota–Robert Bruininks, President at www.amacad.org/visiting.aspx. University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill–James Moeser, Chancellor University of Notre Dame–Rev. John I. Jenkins, President Fellows are asked to encourage students and colleagues to apply. University of Pennsylvania–Amy Gutmann, President University of Pittsburgh–Mark A. Nordenberg, Chancellor University of Southern California–Steven B. Sample, President University of Texas, Austin–William Powers, Jr., President University of Virginia–John T. Casteen III, President University of Wisconsin-Madison–John D. Wiley, Chancellor Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University– Charles W. Steger, President Wellesley College–Diana Chapman Walsh, President Yale University–Richard C. Levin, President

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 3 A Remembrance

The Academy did not and could not have Foreign Honorary Members of the Academy Professor Pelikan to itself. He was also Presi- can testify to the ease with which he spoke dent of the American Academy of Political their languages. My most vivid recall was of and Social Sciences as well as president of an occasion when we were being shuttled to several religious historical societies. He was the National Humanities Center in North the ½rst Chairman of the Council of Scholars Carolina. As we got off, I could not resist at the Library of Congress, where he was asking what language he’d been using to awarded the Kluge Prize in 2004, the “Nobel- converse with a seatmate, a guest of the level” award in the humanities. The National Center. “Oh, that was Albanian.” (This was Endowment for the Humanities recognized when Albania was the most closed-off state his many contributions to the humanities by behind the Iron Curtain.) How could he do naming him the twelfth Jefferson Lecturer. that? This proud son-of-a-Serb said, “Oh, if He also delivered the Gifford Lectures on you know one of those languages, you know Christianity and Classical Culture at the them all.” University of Aberdeen in 1992–1993. He was Dean of graduate studies at Yale from Though a popular writer, he did not court 1973–1978, where he mentored many grad- popularity, a fact that is evidenced by his uate students and excelled as an undergrad- choice of subject matter. Words like “Tra-

Photo credit: John Earle uate lecturer. dition,” “Orthodoxy,” “Dogma,” and “Doc- trine” are hardly candidates for inclusion in A scholarly prodigy, he received his Ph.D. at titles of bestsellers. His works on Jesus Jaroslav Jan Pelikan the University of Chicago in 1946, when he Through the Centuries and Mary Through the was twenty-four years old–he’d been typing Centuries, however, were very widely circu- Jaroslav Pelikan, who died May 23, 2006, for twenty-one years by then–the same year lated and translated into numerous lan- was the kind of intellectual colleagues might he received the Bachelor of Divinity degree guages. Like few other scholars in his time, call “a scholar’s scholar” or “an historian’s and married Sylvia Burica. She shared his in- he straddled the zones often marked “sec- historian.” If such titles characteristically terest in the humanities and was a familiar ular” and “religious,” was at home in both, connote devotion to a specialty at the ex- ½gure at Academy events. and fostered informed conversation among pense of awareness of or service to a larger fellow scholars who had felt more at ease in world, they would be too con½ning for That “many” regarded him the foremost his- only one of them. Fortunately, through his Pelikan. torian of Christianity in the past half century, long career of teaching ½rst at the Universi- as some obituaries had it, is a safe generali- ty of Chicago and then at Yale, he nurtured Fellows of the American Academy of Arts zation; it is hard to think of a peer. His exem- and stimulated generations of scholars who and Sciences would be the ½rst to attest to plum, Adolf Harnack, with whom he had fun- continue to work in the ½elds he cultivated, his administrative skills, his vision for insti- damental disagreements, would be the only so his influence will only grow. tutional programs, his collegial spirit, and challenger to his superior reputation. Peli- his devotion to his responsibilities. He served kan’s main mark in that ½eld was his magis- Martin E. Marty as the Academy’s President (1994– 1997), terial ½ve-volume History of the Christian Tra- University of Chicago having previously participated in numerous dition. programs and served in various advisory ca- Those who worked in ½elds similar to his pacities. were awed at the knowledge and equipment A familiar ½gure at Academy gatherings, he he brought to them. I have had sixty years to could cross disciplines with ½nesse and con- observe and reflect, all the way back to the verse on an astonishing range of subjects. time when the newlywed Martys in the 1950s The Sterling Professor of History at Yale was babysat for the Pelikans. What dazzled me capable of performing on the piano, and once most, as it has astounded others, was his abil- shared a stage with cellist Yo-Yo Ma. While ity to read, speak, and write in many lan- producing his book Bach Among the Theologians, guages. For his role in editing twenty-two he formed a close relationship with the late volumes of Luther’s Works, he handled late- conductor Robert Shaw. A humanist, he took medieval Latin and early-modern German seriously the scienti½c enterprises in the Acad- as any scholar in that ½eld would. For History emy and impressed the Fellows with the gen- of the Christian Tradition, he put his reading erous ways he recognized their achievements knowledge of more than ten languages to and featured them in programs. work.

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 5 At the start of this new century, science continues to be exhilarating. In my own ½eld of cancer research, these are extraordinary times. By learning the genetic damage that drives cells to become cancerous, we can classify cancers more accurately and, for a few important conditions, treat them more effectively. Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center is not alone in showing enthusiasm for science by expanding our research facilities, building new programs, and training more people to study these diseases. From this perspective, it may seem surprising that we are gathered here tonight to worry about the scienti½c enterprise in America. But–despite the successes of the past century and despite the optimism about what science can achieve in the next–science seems to be under attack on several fronts. Scientists report anxiety about their career prospects and a sense of alienation from the dominant culture and politics of our society. Anxiety and alienation are not new to science, but they are perceived as more acute and more intense now than in recent memory and driven by many things: by an under- appreciation of science as an essential feature of our culture, by declining budgets for science, and by sharpened conflicts with religion in education and science policy. Illustration of an influenza virus partially cut away to reveal the internal structures. © Russell Kightley I have been asked to speak to you today about these anxieties–their causes, the objective Is Science Under Siege? reality, and some remedies. To do this, I must Harold Varmus talk about topics on which I must confess not to be truly expert: political science, ethics, This is an updated and edited version of a presentation given at the 1895th Stated Meeting, economics, history, and even theology. But I held at Rockefeller University on November 16, 2005. can give you a personal account of the concerns; I can try to categorize and analyze them as a working scientist perceives them; Harold Varmus is President of Memorial Sloan- one quarter of the members of the National and I can make some judgments about their Kettering Cancer Center. He has been a Fellow of Academy of Sciences were born abroad. seriousness and reversibility. the American Academy since 1988. American scientists have been central to the discoveries of the twentieth century that have transformed our understanding of the Immediate targets of The cardinal attributes of science–discov- world, driven our economy, and radically concern among scientists ery, innovation, rejection of dogma, explor- altered and dramatically extended our lives– ation of frontiers–have been emblematic of atoms and genes; new vaccines, medicines, At least four interwoven topics are prominent our nation’s character from the outset. Many and chemicals; airplanes, televisions, cell in conversations among scientists who are of those who founded our country thought phones, lasers, computers, and pacemakers. worried about the status of science in Amer- of themselves as scientists. And when the ica today: the diminished role of science in Midway through the twentieth century, after American Academy was established in 1780, the formulation of policy by the current ad- science helped us win the Second World War it chose to include the sciences in its title. ministration; the actual policies that have with quinine, radar, and atomic bombs, our been developed in the scienti½c arena; the Science has thrived here, and we have become federal government assumed responsibility diminishing resources for funding science the nation most advanced in virtually all ½elds for a massive expansion of research, especially and for the training of scientists; and the of science and technology. As a nation of im- basic research; the bargain may have had intrusion of religion into science policy and migrants, we have attracted bright people Faustian aspects, but the dividends have education. who studied and stayed here; even today, been handsome.

6 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Evidence that the current administration ing a uni½ed national program to pursue this as 10 to 20 percent, even for new applicants, does not adequately incorporate scienti½c new work, we are creating a patchwork quilt such as those who have ½nally taken faculty advice in the process of formulating its of state policies that range from prohibitions positions aftermany years of undergraduate, of work permissible elsewhere to state ½- graduate, and postdoctoral training. Such nancing of work ineligible for federal dollars. stiff competition produces poor or arbitrary Despite the successes of the California illustrates the latter extreme: vot- decisions and demoralizes the frustrated ers strongly endorsed stem cell research by applicants and reviewers alike. It should also past century and despite the passing a bond measure that will provide $3 worry the public that paid for much of the optimism about what sci- billion over ten years, if the multiple legal training of new investigators and wants challenges to the initiative can be resolved. them to be working in the laboratory, not ence can achieve in the A few other places, including New York City, rewriting grant applications. have bene½ted from private philanthropy next, science seems to be for stem cell work. These pockets of afflu- Although many excellent students are train- ence will inevitably and inequitably distort ing in the sciences in the United States at under attack on several the distribution of stem cell investigators present, the budget forecasts transmit a dis- across the nation, and these precedents couraging message to prospective trainees. fronts. could provide incentives to further fragment For several years American undergraduates the historically successful federal oversight have been steering away from math and policies has been widely promulgated and funding of medical research. some of the physical sciences. And, as has by the Union of Concerned Scientists been widely publicized, foreign students since February 2004 (www.ucsusa.org/ Such policy issues are important, but for who had taken their places have been apply- scienti½c_integrity/). Many experienced most scientists in the trenches the most ing to our graduate schools in smaller num- advisors for previous administrations, immediate and daily concern is ½nancial bers for the past few years. support for their disciplines and the ability Democratic or Republican, argue that this There is yet another widespread and pro- to attract bright trainees to work with them. shift away from a full review of the available foundly troubling phenomenon affecting The United States still leads the nations in facts has produced policies affecting many the climate for science in the country: the total support for science, and it remains domains of governance that lack a strong intrusion of religion into the domains of among the top few when science funding is evidentiary basis and run counter to the science. No one in this audience can be measured as a fraction of the Gross National long-term interests of the country. oblivious to the efforts by components of Product. But budget projections for science the religious right to undermine the teach- Consider the case of human embryonic stem agencies are flat, without even inflationary ing of evolution in high-school science cell research. For those of us–scientists and increases, at a time when the promise of sci- classes. Indeed, hardly a day goes by without citizens alike–who are impressed with the ence and the need for science are unprec- a prominent article in our leading news- prospects for discoveries and, ultimately, edented. Federal support for the physical papers about one of the battlegrounds or bene½cial changes in medical practice sciences has been unchanged or declining about the resurgence of creationism mas- through such research, the present rules that for many years, with no improvements in querading under the pretentious name of govern federal spending on embryonic stem sight. Funding for elementary particle phys- “intelligent design” ( ). For anyone who cell research are troubling and unduly re- ics, for example, has been in steady decline id has not heard, proponents of try to dis- strictive. They have slowed the pace of prog- for several years, and leadership of a ½eld id credit Darwinism by pointing to human ress here, given advantage to other countries that we once dominated is now at least shared eyes or bacterial flagella as examples of (such as the United Kingdom) with more en- with European physicists, who are hosting lightened policies, and discouraged young the Large Hadron Collider in Geneva, where scientists from contemplating careers in this the next major discoveries are likely to be For most scientists in the exciting new ½eld. made after it opens in 2007. The decision to limit federal funding of hu- Even the nih, with the biggest budget trenches the most immedi- man embryonic stem cell research to cell lines among the federal science agencies, about ate and daily concern is derived before President Bush’s speech on $28 billion, is facing trouble. The Bush ad- August 9, 2001, seemed politically calculated, ministration ful½lled its pledge to ½nish a ½nancial support for their rather than scienti½cally reasoned, even at ½ve-year doubling of the budget that began the time. So some of the consequences have in the Clinton era. But for the past two years disciplines and the ability been predictable. For instance, the number –and almost certainly for the coming year as of useful lines was never as large as claimed, well–the nih budget has been flat, without to attract bright trainees to has diminished with time, and never included even an inflationary increase. With this pro- lines that could be used in patients. gressive loss of purchasing power, fewer work with them. grants can be awarded at a time when the Other consequences would have been dif- number of active investigators has grown “irreducible complexity” that evolution ½cult to anticipate. The most important, in signi½cantly. This means that the success can’t fully explain, implying they must be the long run, may be a fragmentation of the rates for grant applicants will be low, as low products of a supernatural force. nation’s research effort. Rather than build-

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 7 Those who defend the concept that religious The underlying causes enti½c realms and the religious precepts. ideas, such as id, have no place in science of current concerns Most areas of science do not confront reli- classrooms took heart, at least briefly, after gious teachings as directly as reproductive November’s elections. In Dover, Pennsylva- How do we account for the many troubling biology, evolutionary sciences, or cosmology nia, where efforts by the local school board features of the landscape that I have just can. And some religions are much less dog- painted? In my view, there are at least three matic and prescriptive than others. underlying causes of our woes: the uncertain There is yet another wide- and poorly guarded boundaries between re- Many who turn to religion for help are seek- ligion and state; the failure to recognize sci- ing some sense of purpose for the bad things spread and profoundly ence as a foundation of our social and eco- that happen. But one of the dominant ideas troubling phenomenon nomic well-being; and ambivalent attitudes that emerges from the scienti½c study of the toward the rest of the world. cosmos, evolution, and reproduction is that of chance. For many scientists, chance hap- affecting the climate for Limiting the influence of religion. The bound- penings can seem as remarkable as a god’s science in the country: the aries between religion and state have be- purposes. The idea that chance, over billions come increasingly blurred over the past of years, could lead to our universe, our gal- intrusion of religion into several years, to the point where the grow- axy, our earth, life forms, the human species, ing political force of evangelical Christians, and, especially, the human brain, is, in itself, the domains of science. often known as the “religious right,” is af- breathtaking. Jacques Monod, one of the fecting science (stem cell policy), the teach- founders of molecular biology, said it well: to present id in biology classes were chal- ing of science (intelligent design), and public “. . . like the man who has just won a mil- lenged in the courts, voters replaced their health (opposition to Plan B, the drug that lion, we still feel the strangeness of our con- entire school board with new members can prevent unwanted pregnancies resulting dition.”A god may be an intruder on this pledged to keep science separate from reli- from recent unprotected sex, and opposition landscape. to the use of condoms in hivprevention gion. Then, a month later, a federal judge Just as science and religion need to de½ne strategies). In the category of public health, issued a remarkably well-reasoned ruling their differences, they also need to seek religious dogma is trumping life itself. that supported the contentions of the new common ground. It is often said that scien- board members (www.pamd.uscourts.gov/ It is ironic that some in this country have be- tists need to show more tolerance of religion. kitzmiller/kitzmiller_342.pdf). come captive to a relatively narrow segment Yes, but religious groups, especially those in the fundamentalist sector, need to show But these battles are far from over. New of the religious spectrum at a time when the more tolerance of secular humanism–a standards that weaken the teaching of evo- breadth of that spectrum has grown dramat- creed common among scientists. As recent lution have been approved (but not yet im- ically, particularly with increasing immigra- plemented) in Kansas; other efforts to un- tion from Asian countries. But we as citizens dermine instruction in evolution, the gov- have been lax in our responsibility to the Just as science and religion erning principle for all of modern biology, First Amendment to ensure the separation are ongoing in many of our states; and polls of religion and state. And we as scientists need to de½ne their differ- by the Pew Trust indicate that as many as 38 have not been adequately engaged in efforts percent of Americans would like to see cre- to understand and explain the relationship ences, they also need to ationism replace evolution, not just coexist between religion and science. seek common ground. with it, in the high-school curriculum. Any ½rst step in those efforts is to describe Still, I have been encouraged by the excellent science and religion as largely separate reports in the New York Times indicate, some and frequent coverage of these developments spheres of activity: science asking How, re- components of the religious right are collab- in our leading newspapers and magazines; ligion asking Why; science invoking Reason, orating with environmental activists to pro- by the bold warnings by some of our uni- religion invoking Faith; science depending tect the earth against global warming, and versity presidents, especially Shirley Tilgh- on objective evidence from the natural world, others are working with public-health advo- man of Princeton and Hunter Rawlings of religion depending on subjective feelings and cates for more spending to combat disease Cornell; and by the actions of many scien- thoughts. Seen in this way, as many have in Africa. The world needs more such col- tists, religious leaders, and other citizens noted, they are compatible and even comple- laborations. concerned about the erosion of First Amend- mentary. Such distinctions help to explain ment principles, who have joined organi- why creationism (or id) should not be men- Current worries about the possibilities of an zations formed to defend those principles. tioned in science classrooms: it makes no impending epidemic of avian influenza, one testable predictions and is supported by no as terrible as the epidemic of 1918, may offer evidence. It is not science. another platform for an enlarged understanding. During his remarks about the in- But we also need to acknowledge that science fluenza situation last fall, President Bush and religion can be in conflict–and have been referred to the idea that “from time to time, throughout history–depending on the sci- changes in the influenza virus result in a

8 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 new strain to which people have never been describe how we teach science to children in We cannot afford to respond to these condi- exposed. These new strains have the potential the United States. We don’t have a pipeline tions with xenophobia or isolationism. Ini- to sweep the globe. . . .” This is pure Darwin- that all students flow through, with a subset tially, after 9/11, immigration procedures be- ism: natural variation and selection. The in- emerging as working scientists at the end. came tougher, even for students and visiting fluenza virus (pictured at the start of this Instead, we have a diamond mine in which scientists. Although the U.S. Immigration article) may look like a complex machine, we prospect, even at very early stages, for and Naturalization Service has responded to with its spiked globe and multiple chains of the gems who can win Westinghouse (now complaints from the academic community nucleic acid, but no one is arguing that it or Intel) Prizes and then go on to even greater and eased visa procurement, impressions its derivatives are the “irreducibly complex” glory after attending schools on scholarships. are hard to erase. While the declines in ap- products of intelligent design. When the We have done well with this method, foster- plications from abroad are not large, they stakes are high, almost everyone turns to ing innovation, making discoveries, winning are indisputable and worrisome: students, real science for help. Nobel Prizes, building great universities and especially from Asia, are shifting their sights, industries, and accumulating national wealth. mainly to other English-speaking countries Recognizing the economic bene½ts of science. But at the same time we have ignored the with strong science programs. Scientists have largely themselves to blame need for that large pipeline of students with for a second problem: we have failed to keep This is a loss for us and a change in inter- the public adequately apprised of the crucial national reputation that we must work to links between science and the social and We are now in danger of restore. We may have squandered the sym- economic bene½ts enjoyed in the developed pathetic goodwill that we enjoyed after 9/11. world. This failure has been especially dam- losing our position at the But, at only modest cost, we can use our sci- aging in the current administration, which enti½c skills to reestablish our good char- has allowed our budget de½cits to mount head of the global pack acter. There are many ways to do this–by and our science budgets to fall. Because the helping to coordinate international surveil- investments in science and technology are unless we make substantial lance against infectious diseases, like influ- crucial to the economic health of the nation, enza, sars, and hiv; by increasing our in- producing well-documented returns of 130 investments to support the vestments in science done abroad, especially to 150 percent, the administration may prove teaching and practice of in poor countries and especially on topics to be less of a friend to American business that promise local bene½t (medicine, agri- than is commonly thought. science. culture, energy production, and environmental remediation); by promoting connec- In the long run, our attitudes and policies tivity through the Internet and assuring that threaten our future productivity and com- strong skills in computation and technology scienti½c reports are made readily accessible petitive stature. This message is central to a as well as knowledge of scienti½c principles. to all. The essential internationalism of sci- report recently issued by the National Acad- This is the method that also generates science is a powerful force that we can and emies, Rising above the Gathering Storm ence-savvy citizens. should harness: to defend against global epi- (www.nap.edu/books/0309100399/html). As the report explains, we are now in danger demic diseases, to diminish threats to the The report is critical of the low status ac- of losing our position at the head of the global world’s climate and environment, and to corded to science teachers in our elementary pack unless we make substantial investments improve the well-being of people who live in and high schools; of the erratic and largely to support the teaching and practice of sci- the developing world, while also reversing declining investments we are making in basic ence. But this news comes at a time when we our declining reputation. science; and of our failure to recognize that lack the ½nancial resources to respond to the industrial productivity depends on scienti½c report’s expensive recommendations with pro½ciency and incentives for innovation. anything other than a resigned shrug. Is science under siege? The authors–who are themselves captains of industry, presidents of universities, and Reestablishing bene½cent internationalism. So how should we answer my rhetorical title? prize-winning scientists–reflect the influ- America’s status in the world has changed. Is science under siege? I am sorry to say: ence of Tom Friedman’s new book, The Earth We are now a feared and unequaled military Yes and No. “Siege” is probably too strong. is Flat , emphasizing the competitive challenge power, neither faced off against the Soviets “Stress” or “duress” might be more appro- that we now face from India, China, and nor joined in harmonious alliances. In the priate words, although they might have at- other Asian nations where students excel in eyes of many peoples around the world, we tracted a smaller audience. And, of course, science and math, where governments rec- have become both a despised invader and a science has always been under suspicion or ognize that their futures depend on a highly vulnerable target for terrorism, not the be- even attack from various quarters, some- skilled work force, and where high-technol- nevolent promoter of democracy we may times even from liberal academics. So how ogy businesses are growing rapidly. aspire to be. And, while we remain the world’s do we judge our current position? industrial leader, we are now being challenged First, it is important to acknowledge our In reading the report, I was reminded of an by rising productivity in Asia and a united continued strengths. There is still consider- essay written several years ago by David Europe. able federal ½nancing of science, and, unlike Goodstein, a physicist at Caltech. Goodstein scienti½c institutions in most other coun- observed that we use the wrong metaphor to

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 9 tries, our academic institutions enjoy addi- of science; politically dif½cult to confront fairly. Portrayals of science in the arts have tional ½nancing from industry and from the growing influence of the religious right; blossomed on the stage (Copenhagen, Wit, philanthropy. The science done here is still and hard to get the attention of a public dis- Proof, QED), occasionally in the movies, and outstanding, and the United States remains tracted by terrorism, the war in Iraq, and even this year in opera (Dr. Atomic); the the leader in most areas. In general, the pub- many economic worries in order to explain Sloan Foundation and others are encourag- lic has con½dence in science and scientists, the importance of science to the nation’s ing more of this. New York’s American Mu- especially in moments of crisis, even though future. seum of Natural History has opened its new large parts of it are ill-informed about sci- Darwin exhibit and is holding public dis- ence and misguided about how we should My own anxieties are tinged with optimism. cussions of evolution. And effective popu- teach it. No signi½cant exodus of our sci- Some university leaders, scientists, clergy, larizers of science, like Brian Greene, a cos- entists has occurred, and we continue to and politicians have boldly spoken up to de- mologist at Columbia, are proposing Inter- attract many excellent students from abroad. fend the First Amendment, evolution in sci- national Science Festivals in our cities, sim- ence curricula, the integrity of science policy- ulating events that have been successful in But it is equally important to recognize other making, and many other things. In some Europe. All of us can and should become troubling features of the landscape: the fra- states, the public is ahead of government cheerleaders for science. gility of the scienti½c enterprise, the impor- leaders in appreciating the value of science, tance of even subtle shifts in the research especially in controversial areas such as stem environment, and the dif½culty of reversing cell research and climate change. Science © 2006 by Harold Varmus downward trends. Furthermore, it is expen- journalism has improved in the past few sive and takes time to improve our teaching decades and generally presents our issues

Harold Varmus (Memorial Sloan-Kettering Patricia Meyer Spacks (University of Virginia) and Nannerl Overholser Keohane Cancer Center) (Princeton University)

10 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Gerald Rosenfeld (Rothschild North America) and Leslie John Brademas (New York University) and Frances Degen Horowitz (City Berlowitz University of New York)

Pierre Hohenberg (New York University), Lawrence Shepp (Rutgers University), and Elihu Abrahams (Rutgers University)

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 11 Bill of Rights, © Bettmann/Corbis John Kenneth Galbraith Honor Lecture Active Liberty: Interpreting Our Democratic Constitution

Stephen G. Breyer

This presentation was given at a joint meeting of the American Academy and the Cambridge Public Library, held at the House of the Academy on May 18, 2006.

Stephen G. Breyer is Associate Justice of the Su- be played in the great man’s honor at the Ken paid a visit to the White House, sat down preme Court of the United States. He has been a funeral. Afterward, one of Rossini’s friends with Jack Valenti and Lyndon Johnson, and Fellow of the American Academy since 1982. came up to the nephew, and the nephew said, “Arthur Goldberg is not very happy at asked, ‘Did you like my composition?’ ‘Yes,’ the Supreme Court. You better ½nd him the friend said, ‘I did. But I could not help another job.” And Johnson said to Valenti, It is a great privilege to deliver a lecture but think how much better it would have “We need a new secretary of hew. See if named in honor of Ken Galbraith. Among been if you had died and Rossini had com- Arthur’s interested in the job.” Valenti called his many considerable talents, Ken pos- posed the music.’”[Laughter] up Goldberg, and Goldberg declined. sessed a terri½c sense of humor. I remember running into Ken after he attended a friend’s That is vintage Ken Galbraith. He was–as I know this happened because I distinctly memorial service. And though Ken was in a many in this room can attest–a champion remember Goldberg saying to me: “People foul mood because he did not much care for meddler, and he affected my life the year I in this administration are always calling and speeches, the service reminded him of a story. was clerking for Arthur Goldberg. Ken had asking me if I want another job. I have a job.” “When Rossini died,” Ken told me, “his come to visit Justice Goldberg, and Gold- And he truly was–despite periodic com- nephew decided to compose some music to berg was complaining about life at the Court. plaints–quite ful½lled at the Court. But then

12 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Adlai Stevenson passed away, leaving open I have been a judge on the Court for about the role of U.S. Ambassador to the United twelve years now. Incidentally, if Justice John Kenneth Galbraith Nations. Perhaps, at that point, Ken placed Alito had arrived one month later, I would another call to the White House. In any event, have held the record for longest tenure as In opening remarks at the John Kenneth Johnson thought appointing Goldberg to the junior justice, now held by Joseph Story. Galbraith Honor Lecture on May 18, 2006, United Nations position was a great idea, and I missed, by one month, immortality as an Chief Executive Of½cer Leslie Berlowitz took Valenti talked to Goldberg. Based on what I answer to a trivia question. [Laughter] In note of the death of John Kenneth Galbraith later heard, I understand that the ensuing the book, I explain a major difference be- only a few weeks earlier: conversation could be distilled to the fol- tween my job on the Supreme Court and my As all of you know, Professor Galbraith lowing: “Arthur, the most important prob- previous job as a judge on the Court of Ap- passed away on April 29, and tonight’s lem facing the country is Vietnam. I intend peals. Where a Court of Appeals judge con- lecture is a small but ½tting way for us to solve this problem with the United Na- siders constitutional matters only sporad- to pay tribute to his life and spirit. I’d tions. And you’re the only one who can do it.” ically, Supreme Court work involves a steady like to say a few words about his special diet of constitutional questions, which allows relationship with the Academy. Goldberg would have believed all three of a Justice to develop a view of the Constitution those statements. According to Sol Linowitz, as a whole. In addition to being a valued Fellow of Johnson might have added something along the American Academy, he was our these lines: “And you know, Arthur, the man Another motivation for writing the book oc- next-door neighbor. After returning to curred about eighteen months ago, when Jus- Cambridge from his service as Ambas- The Constitution estab- tice O’Connor, Justice Kennedy, and I went sador to India, Ken and Kitty were fre- to meet with Mrs. Annenberg and Vartan quently present at Academy meetings. lishes a system of govern- Gregorian. In an effort to develop a curricu- On one October afternoon in partic- lum to teach high-school students about the ular, just a few days after Ken’s ninety- ment that offers a way for Constitution, they surveyed the American ½fth birthday, he attended a luncheon Law Institute, which consists of lawyers from here. Richard Parker was discussing his ordinary Americans to ex- all over the country. When those lawyers forthcoming biography of Ken. It won’t were asked what part of the Constitution surprise any of you who knew Ken to press themselves regarding was most important to teach students, most hear what he said on that occasion: responses centered primarily around three “Nothing has given me more pleasure how their communities different areas: freedom of speech, freedom over the years than this excellent and should function. of religion, and equal protection of the laws. elegant organization. While we do not But far down on the list of responses was a live at a great distance, the journey over word that all three of us who are Justices be- here was my longest in nearly a year. I who solves that problem can do anything.” lieve captures the Constitution’s funda- hope that travel marks my affection, my Goldberg might well have believed that, too. mental principle: democracy. respect, and my admiration for all that I know from Justice Brennan that Goldberg The Constitution establishes a system of the Academy does in revealing life’s consulted some of his fellow justices about government that offers a way for ordinary deeper lessons. For that, we are all in- the offer. All of them got along very well with Americans to express themselves regarding debted.” Goldberg, but they thought that the U.N. po- how their communities should function. sition was a momentous undertaking and Our indebtedness, affection, and ad- The Constitution does not, of course, estab- that he should accept the offer–even if it miration were mutual. Ken was a tow- lish a pure democracy in the sense of a Greek was unheard of to leave the Court. ering intellect and the epitome of an city-state or a New England town meeting. engaged citizen. When John Adams Goldberg did leave, and while we regret it, But that ours is a delegated democracy does and the other Founders established the he certainly did try. In his autobiography, not undermine its basic democratic nature. Academy 225 years ago, they recog- Johnson wrote that Goldberg had asked for nized that it would take public-spirited the U.N. job. That suggestion infuriated Democracy is central in understanding the Constitution because that document creates scholars and leaders to ful½ll its lofty Goldberg, prompting him to return various purposes. I think they had in mind peo- presents that Johnson had given him over a governmental system with certain boundaries. It is the Supreme Court’s job to police ple like Ken Galbraith. He was a trea- the years. Goldberg could not understand sured friend of the Academy, the coun- Johnson’s motivation for asserting that he those boundaries. Deciding whether a law is on the far, forbidden side of the rails or on try, and the world, and we will all miss had requested the U.N. position, but it is not him. inconceivable that Johnson thought that the the near, permissible side presents a dif½cult statement was accurate. It all depends on task. But, regardless, in between those boun- what transpired during that conversation daries is a vast area where people must deter- with Ken Galbraith, who was a master of mine for themselves–through legislatures, tact. city councils, and various institutions–the kinds of rules they want to govern themselves. Now let me turn to my book, Active Liberty. It is not the Supreme Court’s job to mandate I wrote this book about the Supreme Court those rules, but to determine whether the de- for several reasons. The ½rst reason is that sired rules cross over into forbidden territory.

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 13 Two examples illustrate how my views have Campaign-½nance laws must be deemed un- in fact be equal. Though that is an admirable been influenced by the fundamentally dem- constitutional, under this view, because they antecedent, it is dif½cult to know what the ocratic nature of the Constitution. I should limit speech. term “color-blind” now means when state universities seek to use color not to exclude In assessing whether campaign-½nance laws racial minorities, but to create a more inte- Democracy is central in are permissible, it is helpful to bear in mind grated society. the Constitution’s democratic objective. The understanding the Consti- First Amendment is but part of a larger doc- In contrast to the color-blind view, the pur- ument, one that guarantees democratic in- posive view considers whether the policy is tution because that docu- stitutions and provides for democratic elec- designed to help or hurt racial minorities. tions. Indeed, the First Amendment plays an Rather than merely reading the Fourteenth ment creates a governmen- important role in ensuring that people hear Amendment’s guarantee of “equal protection tal system with certain different points of view and, through hear- of the laws,” the purposive view considers ing those different points of view, are able to the history that produced this guarantee. boundaries. It is the make informed choices in elections. That history, of course, is grounded in the nation’s efforts to end slavery. Though the Considering the Constitution in context purposive view forbids laws based on a lack Supreme Court’s job to suggests that there may be problems with of respect for the disfavored race, it may having campaign ½nance receive absolute police those boundaries. permit laws that consider race in certain, protection under the First Amendment. To limited circumstances. take an extreme example: imagine that a city note at the outset that I am not offering a has a very wealthy political family that pur- The color-blind view and the purposive view theory of constitutional law. A theory, I chases all of the television advertising time. collided in Grutter v. Bollinger, where we learned long ago at Harvard Law School, is It would be extremely dif½cult for candi- weighed whether the University of Michi- a complicated matter that invites logical de- dates who were not as well ½nanced to deliver gan could consider a law school applicant’s ductions. Although lawyers on both sides of their messages to the public. race in its admissions process. The briefs in a case may frame their arguments as logical Gruttercame from a wide array of sources, deductions, they invariably deduce opposing As soon as we recognize that both sides of including universities, trade unions, major conclusions. [Laughter] Instead of a theory the controversy have attendant First Amend- corporations, and former of½cials of the of the Constitution, I offer a theme of the ment interests, we shift from asserting abso- armed forces. The retired military of½cials document. lutes to asking questions: What is the effect indicated that without af½rmative action in of this campaign-½nance rule? Will unregu- of½cer training schools, racial minorities My ½rst example, campaign ½nance, focuses lated money serve to drown out voices? How would be excluded from the top cadres in on laws that restrict either the amount of might a law restricting campaign expendi- the Army. Similarly, the unions, corpora- money an individual may give to a candidate, tures introduce more voices into the forum? tions, and universities expressed a desire or the amount that a candidate may spend These are the questions that the Court con- on an election. The Supreme Court upheld sidered in Buckley v. Valeo in 1976 and more the most recent federal law, McCain-Feingold, recently in McConnell v. FCC. People may not The First Amendment by a vote of ½ve to four–an outcome indi- necessarily agree with the Court’s answers cating that this issue is a complex one. De- to the dif½cult questions posed by campaign- plays an important role in spite this closely divided decision, some peo- ½nance laws, but considering the Constitu- ple believe that this issue is straightforward tion’s democratic theme can help us to ask ensuring that people hear because campaign ½nance addresses money, better questions. and money is not speech. If money is not different points of view speech, they ask, how does regulating it in- Af½rmative action provides another instance terfere with freedom of expression? I ½nd of how this democratic theme can help re- and, through hearing those that reasoning totally unsatisfactory because solve dif½cult constitutional questions. Un- even though money is not speech, the ex- derstanding how democracy applies in this different points of view, are penditure of money enables speech. If a can- context is less obvious, but it applies none- able to make informed didate has no money, that candidate’s ability theless. As you all know, the Fourteenth to speak during an election will be severely Amendment provides that no state shall choices in elections. constrained. “deny any person . . . the equal protection of the laws.” There are two predominant views On the other side, many people also believe contesting the meaning of that phrase as ap- to maintain af½rmative action programs that campaign ½nance is an easy question, plied to af½rmative action. Under the ½rst so that they could diversify workplaces but for different reasons. Given that money view, af½rmative action would be deemed and schools. enables speech, these people contend, cam- unconstitutional because state activity must Justice O’Connor’s opinion for the Court paign-½nance regulations impermissibly be “color-blind.” This term comes from Jus- in Gruttercaptures the democratic nature of limit freedom of expression. The First tice Harlan’s dissenting opinion in Plessy v. af½rmative action when she argues: “Effec- Amendment reads: “Congress shall make Ferguson, where he disputed the majority’s tive participation by members of all racial no law . . . abridging the freedom of speech.” notion that racially separate facilities could

14 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 and ethnic groups in the civic life of our Na- did understand commerce. When I have a English. The ½rst clause, “a well-regulated tion is essential if the dream of one Nation, case addressing the Commerce Clause, I con- militia being necessary to the security of a indivisible, is to be realized. . . . [Indeed], the sider the basic purposes of the Clause, and free state,” is a subordinate clause that does path to leadership [must] be visibly open to then apply those purposes to the modern not make its meaning explicit (but it appears talented and quali½ed individuals of every world. Although applications may change, to be intended as if it had, since, at the front, I believe that purposes endure. it says you need a well-regulated militia), and then the main clause is clearly “the right to Purpose and consequence If I am correct about how our Constitution bear arms shall not be infringed,” but it does are complimented by four works, then at its heart is an insistence upon not say who shall not do the infringing. I look creating institutions that reflect the demo- at that and say: “It is too badly written to additional tools that judges cratic will. The Framers erred in excluding work with.” I wonder if you ever have that large segments of the population from civic feeling about that or any other provision. have at their disposal in participation, but they did understand that civic participation was necessary to ensure Breyer:Fortunately, I do not think that the deciding cases: text, history, democracy. There are, of course, many ways Supreme Court has heard a case on the Sec- of participating: become a member of a local ond Amendment since I arrived in 1994. I do tradition, and precedent. school board; run for Congress; and, at the not generally approach cases from a gram- very least, vote. But if you do not participate, matical point of view, in part because the race and ethnicity. All members of our het- the Constitution will not work because it is a Constitution is written with such broad erogeneous society must have con½dence in document that foresees democratic partici- phrases. These broad phrases, even presum- the openness and integrity of the educational pation. We do not need activist judges, but ing meticulous punctuation, do not de½ne institutions that provide this training.” With- we desperately need activist citizens. themselves. out af½rmative action, Justice O’Connor sug- For instance, the Constitution permits Con- gested, too many citizens would believe that gress “to regulate commerce with foreign na- leading institutions–and, indeed, the nations, and among the several states, and with tion’s governmental processes as a whole– Discussion Session the Indian tribes.” Suppose that the Framers belonged only to people that were different spelled out precisely what they meant by from themselves. That consequence would, Q:Justice Breyer, there are some colleges in “commerce.” That approach would have I believe, threaten the democratic form of this country where you cannot get a degree worked quite well for a brief period, but then government that the Framers sought to es- without being able to swim four laps. Yet I the steam engine would have been invented tablish. have had college-age students who do not and complicated matters signi½cantly. Not long after that, electricity would have fol- Grutter illustrates how judges may examine know the difference between a grand jury lowed and complicated matters further still. the purposes embodied in a particular text and a jury. I wonder if it is our constitutional More recently, the twentieth century saw and consider the consequences of various right to remain ignorant of the Constitution, the invention of two types of highway–auto- interpretive decisions. Those two tools– or if the Constitution should be made a man- motive and informational–which would purpose and consequence–are compli- datory course for high school and college mented by four additional tools that judges graduation. have at their disposal in deciding cases: text, Breyer: When I was in high school in San Following the trajectory of history, tradition, and precedent. Although Francisco, we took a course called twelfth- all judges have access to these six tools, a grade civics. It was a basic class that provided the rule of law in the Unit- very real divide exists among judges today. students with a pragmatic understanding of Some judges, who call themselves “origi- ed States reveals that we our democratic system. Indeed, we learned nalists” or “textualists,” reach judicial deci- how the state government worked by going sions relying almost exclusively upon text, have now arrived at the to Sacramento and seeing it in action. I am history, tradition, and precedent. They ac- told that, since the time I attended high knowledge that the other two tools exist, point where people will school, there are fewer classes that study the but they generally do not use them. Other processes of government. That decline is follow decisions even if judges–and I include myself in this second deeply unfortunate, and I believe that it is group–take a different approach by placing intimately connected to the decline in civic they disagree with them. greater emphasis upon purpose and conse- participation in our nation. After all, we can- quence. not expect people to participate if they know In many other countries, I think that this emphasis is appropriate be- nothing about how the government operates. people do not share such cause one cannot go back and determine ex- Q:Do you always feel that the Constitution actly what the Framers thought about af½r- is written well enough for you to do your job? reverence for the law. mative action. Nor can one determine the I have in mind the Second Amendment. Framers’ views concerning radios or auto- have rendered a speci½cally worded Com- When I look at it, as a grammarian, I get rid mobiles or the Internet. But, whatever their merce Clause utterly meaningless. If the of the ½rst comma and the third because predictive limitations, the Framers certainly Constitution’s phrases had been too precise, they would not be grammatical in modern

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 15 I may have found them easier to read as a land in northern Georgia. The Supreme an opinion reaf½rming that racially segre- grammarian, but I would have found them Court, in an opinion written by Chief Justice gated public schools were unconstitutional. much harder to apply in today’s world. John Marshall, determined that the land was But even if there were nine thousand justices, in fact owned by the Cherokee Indians. Many they would have been powerless to stop the Q: After Bush v. Gore, is the traditional con- of you know this case because President state militia. What stopped Governor Faubus cept of federal government deferring to the Andrew Jackson is purported to have said, was President Eisenhower, who ordered para- state courts in the interpretation of their own “John Marshall has made his decision; now troopers to take those black children by the constitutions still intact? let him enforce it.” And Jackson sent federal hand and walk them into that white school. Breyer: People often ask whether I was dis- Many people were deeply upset with the appointed with the outcome in Bush v. Gore. Court’s decision in Bush v. Gore. And though Of course, I was disappointed. I am always The rule of law does not that case has spawned many assessments of disappointed when I am in the dissent. I oc- the Court’s decision, I have yet to read about casionally say to my wife, Joanna: “I’ve writ- come merely from the words the need for paratroopers. Following the tra- ten a devastating dissent that is going to con- in the Constitution . . . . jectory of the rule of law in the United States vince them. I will get ½ve votes for sure.” And reveals that we have now arrived at the point she says, “I’ve heard that one before.” The rule of law does not where people will follow decisions even if [Laughter] come only from judges or they disagree with them. In many other coun- I do not convince my colleagues every time, tries, people do not share such reverence for but it is a great privilege of my job to write even from lawyers. It fun- the law. another opinion in an effort to convince The rule of law does not come merely from them. We do not always see things the same damentally comes from the words in the Constitution, whether they way, and we often feel strongly about our are general or speci½c, grammatical or un- views. But not in Bush v. Gore, nor in any ordinary people who follow grammatical. The rule of law does not come other case during my twelve years on the the rules. only from judges or even from lawyers. It Court, have I heard a voice raised in anger fundamentally comes from ordinary people in our conference room. And I have never who follow the rules. It is one of the reasons heard one judge in that room say anything troops to Georgia not to enforce the decision, I wrote this book and why I believe so strongly slighting about another. We are professionals but to evict the Indians. The result was the that we must teach our grandchildren about who understand the signi½cance of our un- Trail of Tears, on which many Indians died. civics in school. The rule of law is not just dertaking. the responsibility of lawyers and judges–it Now consider Cooper v. Aaron, a Supreme is everyone’s. I cannot say more about Bush v. Gore than I Court case that followed Brown v. Board of wrote in dissent in that case. But I would like Education. Arkansas Governor Orval Faubus to place that case in historical context. In the vowed to prevent the integration of schools 1830s, the Supreme Court decided Worcester in Little Rock, and called in the state militia © 2006 by Stephen G. Breyer v. Georgia, a case considering who owned the to support that vow. All nine justices signed

Justice Stephen G. Breyer (United States Supreme Court) Catherine Galbraith and Justice Stephen G. Breyer

16 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 which amounts to about 7,500 pages or 24 megabytes. Whether debating macroeconomic theory, predictions about the future performance of markets, or any other subject, economists are well known for having different points of view. Yet virtually all of them agree that our nation’s system of taxation could be made both simpler and fairer. We are fortunate to have two speakers this evening who are authorities on U.S. tax policy. James Poterba and Michael Graetz are eminently quali½ed to examine the challenges and choices facing policymakers in Washington. Michael will introduce Jim and then offer his own views on tax reform. Michael Graetz is the Justus S. Hotchkiss Professor of Law at Yale University. An expert on taxation and tax policy, he has authored or edited six books and many articles on the topic. In addition to a distinguished career in academia, he has served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy in the U.S. Treasury.

Michael J. Graetz © Royalty-Free/Corbis. This is the ½rst time I’ve ever been asked to introduce a speaker, tell you how wonderful he is, and then tell you why he’s wrong. But Tax Reform: Current Problems, that seems to be my mission tonight. Possible Solutions, and Unresolved Jim Poterba has taught at mit since 1982. He is the Mitsui Professor of Economics and Questions Head of the mit Economics Department. He has authored or edited numerous books James Poterba and Michael J. Graetz on how taxation affects the economic deci- Introduction by John S. Reed sions of households and ½rms.

This presentation was given at the 1898th Stated Meeting, held at the House of the Jim’s presentation is based on his recent Academy on February 9, 2006. work as a member of the President’s Advi- sory Panel on Tax Reform–a group of nine people who spent much of 2005 reviewing James Poterba is Mitsui Professor of Economics John S. Reed the tax code and developing ways to im- and Head of the Economics Department at the prove it. Since Jim was the only member of Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has the panel who did not use a paid tax-return been a Fellow of the American Academy since In a couple of months–sixty-½ve days from preparer, he has an intimacy with the tax law 1996. today to be precise–most of us will ½le fed- that was missing elsewhere in the panel. eral income tax returns, or at least ask for Michael J. Graetz is Justus S. Hotchkiss Professor extensions. Beyond the effect that taxes have A graduate of Harvard College, Jim received of Law at Yale University. He has been a Fellow on each of us personally, the structure of the his Doctor of Philosophy degree as a Mar- of the American Academy since 2004. country’s tax policy has a direct impact on shall Scholar at Oxford. He is among the most decent, thoughtful, generous, serious, John S. Reed, Treasurer of the American Acad- the national economy and on the govern- and engaging people I’ve ever met. He will emy, is former Chairman and Chief Executive ment’s actions and programs. Title 26 of the ultimately help put the lie to the widespread Of½cer of Citigroup. He has been a Fellow of the U.S. tax code, the Federal Internal Revenue notion that economics is the dismal science. American Academy since 1998. Code, contains more than 3.4 million words,

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 17 James Poterba sober analysis of tax policy and tax law. There were occasional moments of levity, Beyond the broad concern however. Our chair was the former Senator The Academy’s archivist reports that tax Connie Mack of Florida. His namesake is his that the current tax system policy has never before been discussed at a grandfather, the Baseball Hall of Famer and discourages labor supply Stated Meeting of the Academy. Let me legendary manager of the Philadelphia Ath- therefore begin with some historical back- letics. At one point, a witness was testifying and investment more than ground. Colbert, the ½nance minister to about a reform proposal that would change Louis xiv, de½ned the art of taxation as how we tax capital gains, so that small cap- some alternative systems “the plucking of the goose, so as to obtain ital gains would be untaxed and very large the largest amount of feathers with the capital gains would be taxed very heavily. might, there are speci½c smallest amount of hissing.” Last year, I was The witness labeled this plan the “home run part of a tax-reform panel that studied how tax.” Senator Mack stopped him in mid- concerns with distortions to collect feathers without hissing and sug- sentence and said, “With my heritage, I am gested several options for tax-reform. This deeply opposed to any plan for taxing home and ef½ciency costs created evening, I will discuss three broad issues in runs.” by the tax code. tax policy and tax reform. First, I will consider some of the dif½culties in the current As we studied the current tax code, our tax code. These are elements that are cited panel was able to identify three key prob- In 1986, the watershed tax-reform year of as major problems and that motivate the lems: the increasing complexity of the in- the postwar period, the federal income tax quest for alternatives to the system we now come tax; the expanding reach of the alter- was dramatically simpli½ed and reformed. have in place. Second, I will outline several native minimum tax; and tax-induced dis- Since then there have been more than ½fteen potential directions for tax reform, includ- tortions in economic activity, which might thousand changes to the tax code. Many ing both options suggested by the Presi- involve labor supply, saving, or ½nancial have added complexity. Until recently, for dent’s Tax Panel and other alternatives that choices. example, there were ½ve different de½nitions of “child” in the tax code. There were dif- were not suggested. Finally, I will address The ½rst issue that motivates many tax- ferent de½nitions for when a child was a de- some of the practical dif½culties of reform reform discussions is the complexity of the pendent, when she could be used to qualify that plague both current and future attempts current system. This is the easiest problem her household for the Earned Income Tax to change the tax code. to describe, but it is probably the least im- Credit ( ), and when she could receive a portant of the three justi½cations for reform. eitc childcare dependency credit. The current Today, more than 60 percent of taxpayers, tax code also includes more than a dozen The tax code is complicated, ½nding the tax code just too dif½cult to grap- different ways to save, in a tax-preferred ple with on their own, use a paid preparer to and it has become more way, for retirement, education, and health- help ensure the accuracy of their tax returns. care needs. complicated over time. Estimates suggest that, as a nation, we spend about $140 billion collecting taxes and com- Some of the tax changes since 1986 have Let me start by saying just a word about the plying with the income tax code. We raise involved “rifle shot” provisions: specialized tax panel that was appointed in January about a trillion dollars from the income tax, rules that are trying to provide tax relief or a 2005. The group consisted of two former so we’re spending about 15 percent of the tax incentive, often for just a small part of Senators and a Congressman, three aca- revenue yield on compliance. This ½gure the economy. Other provisions offer favor- demics, and three others with various per- includes not just the checks people write to able tax treatment to substantial sectors of spectives, including a former head of the tax preparers but also the time spent collect- the economy. A witness who testi½ed before Internal Revenue Service. We were charged ing records, preparing returns, and getting the tax panel illustrated one such provision, with proposing revenue-neutral ways to ½nancial affairs in order. the current tax provision for a lower corporate tax rate on ½rms in manufacturing than make individual and corporate income taxes The tax code is complicated, and it has be- in other industries. The witness delivered a simpler, fairer, and more pro-growth. The come more complicated over time. We have box of donuts to the chairman of the tax revenue-neutral element of our charge must done more and more social engineering panel, explaining that the donuts had been be underscored, because true reform of the through the tax system, for example, by try- purchased at a bakery, where they had been tax system doesn’t mean tax cuts. It means ing to encourage conservation by providing baked on the premises. Because of this, the changing the structure to try to ½nd a better special incentives such as education savings bakery did not qualify as a manufacturing way to raise revenue. Tax reform can be accounts, by using health savings accounts to establishment. However, a mass producer combined with raising or lowering the level encourage particular types of insurance pur- of donuts, which baked its donuts at a com- of taxation. chases, and by providing incentives for var- mon site and delivered them to grocery ious kinds of business investments. Each Most of the tax panel’s work consisted of stores, would qualify for a lower tax rate provision of this type moves us away from a holding hearings and working with Treasury under the special manufacturing tax credit simple system toward one that is more cum- staff as well as with our own staff to develop enacted in 2003. Thus the playing ½eld was bersome to comply with and to understand. reform options. The work usually involved not level across donut providers. Provisions

18 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 100

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Figure 1: Distribution of Federal Income Tax Payments by Household Income Categories, 2006. Source: President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform like this have complicated the tax code while The second issue that motivates many current The amt was designed to apply to a broad- distorting the economic behavior of house- discussions of tax reform is the recent ex- er income base than the regular income tax, holds and ½rms. pansion of the Alternative Minimum Tax, and thereby to levy tax on some taxpayers the amt. The United States today has two with high gross income but large deductions In part because of new tax provisions that parallel tax systems operating in tandem: who face very low regular income tax liabil- reduce the tax liability of low-income wage the regular income tax, which speci½es tax ities. The amt base includes some things earners with children, a large fraction of that are traditionally excluded from the in- households pays no, or very little, income come tax base, such as state and local tax tax, while a small fraction pays the lion’s The ½rst approach involves deductions. Business and some medical share. Figure 1 demonstrates this. reforming the income tax expenses are also added back to taxable The ½rst ½ve bars in the ½gure represent the income in computing the amt base. After quintiles of income distribution. The top 20 by lowering rates, broad- excluding a threshold amount of amt tax- percent of taxpayers, ranked by income, able income, a taxpayer applies the amt currently accounts for about 85 percent of ening the base, and re- rates, usually 26 or 28 percent, to Alternative the taxes paid under the income tax. The Minimum Taxable income. Because of its four bars on the right side of Figure 1 pro- moving as many of the high level of state and local taxes, Massa- vide more detail on the tax payments by distortions as possible chusetts has one of the highest fractions of those at the top of the income distribution. resident taxpayers facing the amt. The top 1 percent pays about 37 percent of while preserving some Of the 130 million households that ½led the taxes, while in aggregate tax ½lers in the income tax returns in 2005, about 4.5 mil- bottom half of the income distribution re- sense of fairness. lion paid the amt. If Congress does not act ceive a refund because of the eitc and the soon to increase the amt threshold, then exemptions that absolve households with liability as a function of income and tax- more than 20 million taxpayers will pay the low incomes from income tax liability. The payer characteristics, and the amt, which amt in 2006. Going forward, the growth of payroll tax, which ½nances Medicare and calculates tax liability in a different way. the amt is even more striking. By 2015, 50 Social Security, begins to raise revenue from After doing both calculations, the taxpayer million taxpayers, or nearly one in three, households at a much lower income level is asked to ½gure out which is greater, and will pay the amt, and about two-thirds of than the income tax. Even combining the then to pay that amount. One of the reasons taxpayers with incomes between $50,000 payroll and income taxes, however, taxpayers the amt is so unpopular is simply because and $100,000 will pay the amt. Virtually in the top quintile of the income distribution the last step in the calculation involves pay- everyone with incomes between about account for a very large fraction of total ing the maximum, not the minimum, tax $100,000 and about $400,000 will be taxed taxes paid. liability.

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 19 under the amt rather than the regular in- scheduled to do, repealing the amt would Beyond the broad concern that the current come tax. The cost of repealing the amt still cost about $700 billion over ten years. tax system discourages labor supply and in- will exceed the cost of repealing the regular vestment more than some alternative sys- income tax. By recommending amt repeal, the tax pan- tems might, there are speci½c concerns with el created a large revenue gap that needed to distortions and ef½ciency costs created by The second involves reduc- be ½lled. That is why the panel recommend- the tax code. The current system treats dif- ed many base-broadening reforms of the ferent types of corporate entities, such as S ing the revenue yield from current tax code, such as tightening the lim- and C corporations, differently, and thereby its on mortgage-interest deductions and tax- provides incentives to structure business ac- the income tax, and making a fraction of employer-provided health tivity in one way versus another. Debt and insurance. Each of those reforms could help equity, capital gains and dividends, partner- ing up the lost revenue with ½nance amt repeal. ships and corporations are treated different- an alternative tax source. The third justi½cation for tax reform focuses ly. Housing is treated differently from other on the incentive effects of the income tax investment assets. All of these distortions system, and the ef½ciency costs associated create incentives for taxpayers to change The growing role of the amt motivates dis- with the current structure. The tax system their behavior to reduce their tax liability. cussions of tax reform for two reasons. First, influences behavior of both households and the amt creates extra complexity. Some Having outlined three concerns with the ½rms. It affects a wide range of decisions, protest that the amt requires taxpayers to current tax system, namely its complexity, including how much to work, how much to do their taxes twice. For many taxpayers, the role of the amt, and its effect on ef½- save, and for ½rms, how much to invest. A this may overstate the burden. I use a com- ciency and growth, the next question is what central proposition in tax economics is that puter program to prepare my taxes, and do we do? What are the possible solutions? lower marginal tax rates go along with lower once I have typed in all of my data, it’s really There are three broad types of reform. The distortions. Raising revenue with a broad only one more step to get the program to cal- ½rst involves reforming the income tax by tax base and low rates is not nearly as distor- culate my amt liability as well as my regu- lowering rates, broadening the base, and tionary as raising the same revenue with a lar income tax liability. For some taxpayers, removing as many of the distortions as pos- smaller tax base and higher rates. however, the burden is much greater, be- sible while preserving some sense of fair- cause the amt may require recordkeeping The impact of tax rules on some household ness. That’s one of the options the tax panel or information reporting that is not required and ½rm decisions is dif½cult to determine proposed. The second involves reducing the under the regular income tax. The second, solely on the basis of economic theory, so revenue yield from the income tax and mak- and larger, issue is that the amt compli- empirical evidence plays a central role. Con- ing up the lost revenue with an alternative cates tax planning. A taxpayer’s marginal sider, for example, the effect of taxes on la- tax source. The value-added tax (vat) is rate differs under the regular income tax bor supply. In theory, there are two effects of often considered for such a role. A vat is a and the amt. The top amt rates are lower taxing earnings. An income effect makes the type of sales tax: it collects revenue by tax- than the top rates under the regular income taxpayer poorer and encourages additional ing consumption. If we supplemented the tax. Uncertainty about which tax system a work, while a substitution effect recognizes taxpayer will face complicates many deci- the lower after-tax wage rate and the asso- The third possibility is to sions, such as charitable gift planning. Both ciated reduction in work incentives. Empir- of these considerations have placed the ical evidence, based on studies of the 1986 go further and literally amt at the top of the Treasury Department tax reform in the United States and of the Taxpayer Advocate’s list of the most impor- 1990 tax reform in Sweden, suggests that replace the income tax tant problems in the income tax code. when there are sharp reductions in marginal with a consumption tax. The problems created by the growth of the tax rates on earnings, labor supply increases. This suggests that the substitution effect amt could be addressed either by repealing current system with a vat, we would be the amt, or by modifying it so that it once dominates the income effect with regard to labor-supply behavior. able to reduce income tax rates while still again applies only to the very top of the in- collecting the current level of revenue. The come distribution. The tax panel recom- Tax policy can also distort savings and in- United States is the only major industrial mended repealing the amt–a very expen- vestment. Theoretical studies that compare country that does not rely to a signi½cant sive action that set the stage for most of our different tax structures suggest that eco- extent on a vat structure at the federal other recommendations. Under the assump- nomic growth would rise if the tax burden level. tion that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are per- on capital was reduced. Yet these ef½ciency manent, which is built into the administra- gains may come at a cost in the distribution The third possibility is to go further and tion’s baseline budget, repeal of the amt of tax burdens. Because the ownership of literally to replace the income tax with a would cost $1.2 trillion over the next ten capital is concentrated among a small share consumption tax. This could be done in a years. Most of the cost falls in the years be- of taxpayers, lowering capital tax burdens variety of ways; the vat is one of them. tween 2012 and 2016, when the amt ac- may make it dif½cult to achieve what some Another approach that is receiving a fair counts for a signi½cant share of total reve- would view as a fair distribution of tax lia- amount of popular attention at the moment nue. Even if we assume the 2001 and 2003 bility. is the National Retail Sales Tax. Such a tax tax cuts expire in 2010, as they are currently could replace either the income tax or the

20 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 combination of the income tax and the pay- system, by adopting a hybrid structure that structure of consumption and income taxes roll tax. The retail sales tax is sometimes combined a consumption tax with a flat rate could come close to replicating the current promoted in the United States as an example tax on household capital income. distribution of tax burdens throughout most of an “American” tax because the United of the income distribution. States uses the retail sales tax at the state The challenge in the ½rst approach is that to lower rates, one must broaden the base to Many have heard the description of the var- raise enough revenue to offset the lost rev- ious tax-reform alternatives and have asked In considering tax reform, enue that rate-reduction implies. That what gains would justify such reforms. Esti- means attacking some of the expensive and mates by leading tax economists, including it is essential to recognize popular deductions that are currently in the Larry Kotlikoff of Boston University who is tax code. Take the favorable treatment of here this evening, suggest that aggregate that the three objectives owner-occupied housing, for example. To- economic output could rise by as much as 5 day, the failure to tax the imputed rent of percent, after twenty years, if we moved to that our tax panel was owner-occupied housing, while still per- a consumption tax rather than the current mitting deductions for mortgage-interest income tax system. That gain dwarfs the charged to achieve–to payments and property-tax payments, ac- differential costs of complying with differ- simplify, to be fair, and to counts for about $142 billion of lost rev- ent tax systems. Ultimately, the tax panel enue. To place this in perspective, we collect realized that growth was the key issue to improve economic growth– about a trillion dollars each year from the consider in tax reform, subject to the con- corporate and individual income tax. Em- straints of preserving a fair distribution of are often in conflict. ployer-provided health insurance accounts burdens. for another revenue hit of $126 billion. Pen- One of the dif½cult realities of tax reform is sions, iras, and 401(k) contributions are level. The vat, on the other hand, is some- that it is hard to get from where we are to another $118 billion; state and local taxes, times portrayed as a European tax because some of the more attractive alternatives. another $56 billion. “Base broadening” is a France was the ½rst country to adopt it. If First, it is very hard to explain to the public popular concept, but when the speci½cs of one reads the history more carefully, though, how to think about these different tax sys- lost deductions become apparent, the politi- it turns out that something very similar to tems and their effects. There is broad con- cal economy of achieving it is very dif½cult the vat was proposed by a Yale economics fusion about a central point in tax econom- because of the need to limit some of these professor in 1921, in a paper published in the ics, namely that taxes collected from ½rms very popular deductions. Quarterly Journal of Economics, which is edited ultimately are paid by individuals, either in at Harvard. We cannot credit the Europeans The second approach recommended by the their role as investors or as workers. This for getting there ½rst! tax panel, which combines a consumption creates a political bias toward collecting tax structure with a vestigial income tax, is taxes from ½rms rather than individuals. In Another approach to consumption taxation more complicated to explain than the ½rst a similar vein, there appears to be some con- would involve a progressive consumption recommendation. It involves a cash-flow fusion about the differences between var- tax, a tax with a long history. This requires tax, a tax that is similar to a but allows ious types of consumption tax reforms. The tracking consumption at the household vat for a deduction for wage payments at the , which is collected in steps throughout level, so that the tax burden can be levied vat business level. At the household level, this at different fractions of consumption de- proposal combines a progressive tax on pending on total household spending. In wage income with a flat-rate tax on capital Ultimately, the tax panel the United States, a detailed plan for imple- income. Thus the proposal involves elements mentation was developed by David Bradford of both consumption and income taxation. realized that growth was and the U.S. Treasury staff in their 1977 report Blueprints for Basic Tax Reform. David, as One of the traditional challenges in design- the key issue to consider in many of you know, died tragically last spring ing a consumption-based tax-reform pro- in a ½re. There were many times during the posal has been achieving distribution goals. tax reform, subject to the work of the President’s Tax Panel when we Consumption taxes tend to fall more heavily constraints of preserving a kept wishing that we could call David and on those who consume a lot relative to their ask how best to handle a particularly dif½- income, typically those near the bottom of fair distribution of burdens. cult problem of expenditure tax design. the income distribution, than on those with Our limited time this evening does not per- lower consumption-to-income ratios. One the production and marketing process, is mit me to describe the detailed provisions of way to address this problem is to give each ultimately very similar to a retail sales tax any of the speci½c proposals that were devel- household a rebate from the government to that is collected only at the point of pur- oped by the tax-reform panel. However, I can cover tax payments on a bundle of necessi- chase. Yet many who oppose one of these offer a rough sense of the panel’s two reform ties. But options like that complicate the tax taxes favor the other, which raises an educa- proposals. The ½rst called for simplifying structure, require much more recordkeep- tional challenge for economists and tax- the income tax by broadening the base and ing at the household level and on the part of policy practitioners of all kinds. lowering rates. The second called for mov- the tax administrator, and may create oppor- ing toward a consumption-oriented tax tunities for evasion. One of the discoveries A simple example can illustrate the differ- of the tax panel’s research was that a hybrid ence between a retail sales tax and a vat. If

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 21 a wheat farmer sells $100 worth of wheat to In considering tax reform, it is essential to To describe the income tax today, I want to a baker, and the baker sells $200 worth of recognize that the three objectives that our refer back to Jim’s ½gure about the distribu- bread to a consumer, a retail sales tax at 10 tax panel was charged to achieve–to sim- tion of the income tax burden. The income percent would collect $20 from the consum- plify, to be fair, and to improve economic tax has changed. Prior to World War II, it er at the point of purchase. The vat is es- growth–are often in conflict. There are affected only a very thin slice of high-in- sentially a retail sales tax that is collected in trade-offs among these goals, and it is dif- come earners. In order to ½nance World stages. It would collect $10 from the baker ½cult to ½nd reforms that achieve all three. War II, however, the income tax was extend- and $10 from the farmer because each of If we want to have a system that is fair, we ed to the masses. As recently as the 1986 re- them added $100 to the total value. Thus the may need to complicate the structure a bit. form, it was still a mass tax. But in the past vat and the retail sales tax have similar eco- If we want to promote growth, it may mean two decades, largely through the expansion nomic effects. moving toward taxing capital income less, of the Earned Income Tax Credit (eitc) which could have distributional conse- and child tax credits, more and more people An even larger problem, however, is the need quences that some might brand as unfair. have come off the income tax rolls. to consider transition relief in tax reform. It’s very likely that if we put a bipartisan Colbert knew that designing a tax system Of the 130 million returns ½led each year, group of nine economists and tax lawyers was hard. Louis xiv didn’t have much suc- nearly a quarter are not taxable. Most of in a room and said, “Design a tax system,” cess with the systems that he tried. The them collect money from the government. they would come up with a system that dif- United States has had a relatively stable tax Thus, the irsis not only a tax-collection fers from the one we currently have in place. system, and one that by and large has worked agency; it is our principal check-writing Whether it would look exactly like the pro- well. Yet there is a never-ending chorus of agency. The amount of refunds paid out for posals of the tax panel, I’m not sure. But it calls for reform, but little action. Bill Archer, would not look like what we have today. the former Chairman of the Ways and Means However, the challenge is to get from where Committee, said, “There’s a tremendous ap- In terms of collecting we are to any of these reform options. The petite for tax reform in Washington until key problem is the entrenched interests that people ½nd out what it really is.” Perhaps money, we’re now back to have taken action based on the current tax that explains this paradox! a situation where most of system and would lose under some of the alternatives. the money is coming from A standard canon of tax economics holds Michael J. Graetz that taxes on things that cannot be changed a thin slice of upper-income are very ef½cient taxes. Imagine, for exam- Americans, not from the ple, that you’ve just built a new rental apart- Jim and I agree entirely on what’s wrong ment building. You’ve got a long stream of with the existing system. My list is pretty masses who used to pay it. tax-depreciation claims that you’re hoping much the same as his, beginning with com- to get under the current system. Now say we plexity. I would also add the fact that neither the eitc now exceeds, by a factor of two, eliminated those and said, “Tomorrow the public nor the overwhelmed irscan the amounts that are paid for welfare, the we’re going to adopt a new tax rule. You comply with the existing system. I also so-called tanf provisions. There are more can’t take those claims anymore. But, be- agree with his points on the amt. refunds now in earned income tax credits cause we don’t have those deductions, we’ll I do want to add what I call the problem of than in Supplemental Security Income tax your income at a lower rate.” To an econ- chicken soup. It refers to the fact that the (ssi), which provides income for low-in- omist, this plan seems like a way of collect- Congress and presidents of the United States come people. So the eitc has become our ing revenue without any distortion because now use the tax code the way my mother largest social-welfare program, and it is in the building will not change–it is the result used chicken soup, as a remedy for whatever the tax code. And it is enormously compli- of past investment. To most other partici- ails society. For example, whenever we have cated, not only for reasons that Jim has sug- pants in the economic system, however, a crisis in health insurance, the President in gested, but also because it creates huge mar- including all the business people on the tax his State of the Union address will propose a riage penalties for people at the bottom. panel, this example seems like a route to new tax incentive–this time for health-sav- bankruptcies, disruption, and all kinds of ings accounts. Everyone has a different idea For the middle-income group, tax credits other problems. These are important and about how to go about solving these social also add complexity. Do I take this edu- valid concerns, and they raise the challenge and economic problems, complicating cation credit? If I draw money out of my of determining how to change the tax sys- matters further. education ira, I lose my credits. Who can tem without creating a great many distor- ½gure this out? Maybe TurboTax or a tax tions. If we provide generous relief to those Jim mentioned the ½ve de½nitions of a child preparer can, but this complexity alienates who lose tax bene½ts that they had previous- in the tax code. There are also thirteen dif- the public from the government when they ly counted on, then it is more dif½cult to ferent provisions that provide incentives for ½le their tax returns. Paying taxes is no long- reduce tax rates in the reform environment. higher education, including two tax credits er an act of patriotic pleasure. It’s not a pa- This means the ef½ciency gains are smaller for higher education: one is available if you triotic act of ½guring out your share of fund- than they might be if transition relief was were convicted of a felony drug crime; the ing civilization, except for the few econo- more limited. other one is not.

22 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 mists who do their own returns. Most peo- would put a lot of money on crossing the the debt ceiling of the United States to $9 ple don’t look forward to April 15–and not ½nish line. trillion. We have hundreds of billions of because they owe money. Many are receiv- dollars in annual de½cits as far as the eye can ing refunds. The other proposal is the so-called growth- see, and we have a tax system that is not well and-investment tax. I love the label. The designed to raise money going forward. Fur- At the same time, the bottom-half of the income tax, as we know, is a tax on income, ther, we have a demographic problem: the population is not paying income taxes but is but the growth-and-investment tax is not a population is aging. The Social Security receiving checks. And two-thirds of the in- tax on growth and investment. We don’t problem, where George W. Bush spent his come tax revenue is coming from the top 10 know what kind of tax it is: it’s a mystery political capital, is a very small problem X tax. David Bradford used to call it the tax, compared to the Medicare and Medicaid which also had a little mystery about it. We need a tax system that problems. Estimates predict that about 27 The growth-and-investment tax is a hybrid percent of our nation’s gdp will be spent could actually produce some between an income tax and a consumption on the bene½ts we currently receive from tax. What’s most interesting to me about those programs. Historically, we’ve spent 20 more revenue, if we need this consumption-tax exercise is the empha- percent of gdp on all federal spending. Per- sis on American exceptionalism. Bob Hall haps we can keep it at 20 percent or 21 per- more in the future. and Alvin Rabushka had to invent the so- cent by restructuring spending programs. called flat tax. David invented the X tax. The However, our current tax system is raising panel invented the growth-and-investment only 17.5 percent of gdp. The tax panel has percent. In terms of collecting money, we’re tax. The fair-tax people proposed a sales tax come up with a revenue proposal that’s rev- now back to a situation where most of the at rates much higher than those used any- enue-neutral: it gets rates down by 2 per- money is coming from a thin slice of upper- where in the world. But, lo and behold, there centage points, but it doesn’t raise any more income Americans, not from the masses is actually a very well-functioning consump- revenue for us. So, we have a gap between who used to pay it. tion tax used not just in Europe but in 150 17.5 percent here and 20 or 21 percent there. The panel has come up with two tax-reform countries throughout the world: the value- It doesn’t add up. proposals. The ½rst is a really thoughtful re- added tax, which collects the money that it’s We need a tax system that could actually form of the income tax; I compliment them supposed to collect at very low compliance produce some more revenue, if we need on it. But it is not surprising to me that no costs compared to ours. Nobody wants to more in the future. People fear a vat because politician in America, including the presi- talk about the because it’s the “French vat it just might work. If we need revenue, we dent who commissioned them to undertake tax,” or the “European tax,” or something could get it. I’ve come up with a four-step this assignment, has picked up on this plan else. But it has the advantage of working plan that says, “Let’s use the vat,” because and said, “Let’s have it.” The reason: the well. I testi½ed before the President’s panel, I’m in the same camp that says, “We ought slaughtering of sacred cows. People focus suggesting that what we needed was a third to be taxing consumption a little more than on the loss of deductions– home-mortgage plan that involves a . vat we do now, and income a little less.” deductions, particularly, but also charitable deductions. People would also lose their Let me say something about the vat . I do First, instead of repealing the amt, I would state- and local-tax deductions, which not believe that we can have a revenue-neu- repeal the regular tax. Why? Because the makes a difference in what are called the tral tax system for very long. Jim empha- amt’s rates are lower and its base is broad- blue states, most of which, including this sized that we cannot have any more tax cuts, er, two objectives that the panel is struggling one, have Republican governors. So, when because the panel assumed all of the Presi- you start repealing state and local taxes, it’s dent’s tax cuts are permanent. In January a bipartisan problem. 2001, Alan Greenspan famously testi½ed to We ought to be taxing con- the Budget Committee of the U.S. Senate What would people get out of this reform? that the surpluses, which were then estimat- sumption a little more than One bene½t is the repeal of the amt. How- ed to be $5 trillion over the coming decade, ever, only four million people are paying it were so large that we would pay off all the we do now, and income a right now, with only the threat that every- nation’s debt and have so much money left body will have to pay it down the road. The over that we would have to invest public little less. typical political response is to “wait and dollars in private assets, including corporate see.” The other bene½t is that the panel stock. And he–and I agree with him–said: to achieve with its tax-reform proposal, would lower the tax rate from 35 percent to “The government shouldn’t buy corporate which only gets the income tax rate down to 33 percent. Ronald Reagan lowered the top stock; it shouldn’t be in that business.” So, 33 percent. I would get it down to 28 percent tax rate from 70 percent to 28 percent; when he added, we need a tax cut. Well, the good by repealing the regular tax. Also, in 2015, you make that kind of reduction, you can news is now that Alan Greenspan has left with all the people paying the amt, it’s slaughter a few cows along the way and sim- the government, that problem has been cheaper to repeal the regular tax than it is to plify the law. But when you’re lowering the solved. repeal the amt. So I would repeal the regu- top rate from 35 percent to 33 percent, please The bad news is that we have more than $8 lar tax, keep the amt, and then raise the leave my cows in the yard. The income tax trillion of debt. The Secretary of the Trea- exemption to $100,000 for a married couple proposal, while worthwhile, is not one that I sury is back before Congress, asking to raise (indexed for inflation). Thus, no married

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 23 couple with a combined income of less than the need to tax capital for the same reasons. them. Enacting a vat is not easy, politically. $100,000 would pay the tax. I would then I would also tax capital, but at low rates. Tax reform will involve many hard choices. lower the rate further to 25 percent, maybe less. One ½nal point: I do not think that the growth-and-investment tax can work. Two James Poterba I would also apply similar measures to the types of individuals missing from the panel corporate tax. In the last two decades, this were a practicing tax lawyer and a tax ac- nation has gone from having the lowest countant. As a result, the panel lacked cer- Michael has done an outstanding job of corporate-tax rate in the oecd to having tain practical experience. The responsibility outlining some of the open issues and one of the highest. Corporate-tax rates have for this shortcoming belongs to Alberto shortcomings of the proposals offered by been coming down around the world be- Gonzales. He told tax lawyers and tax ac- the tax-reform panel, and of explaining his cause people can move money around and countants that if they served on this panel, own alternative reform proposal. His plan the international income tax system is so they could have no dealings with the irs involves a vat, and I should comment brief- archaic that it cannot, now, effectively during the panel’s life because of the appear- ly on that element. The tax-reform panel collect high corporate taxes. One way to ance of impropriety. That mandate pretty spent a good deal of time thinking about the decrease the incentives for corporations to well ruled them out. vat and learning about how it would work. move money to countries with lower tax I think there was broad agreement that it, in rates is to become one of those countries. fact, is a very ef½cient way of raising rev- So, countries throughout the oecd have In order to move forward enue. Michael accurately portrayed the lowered their tax rates. I would lower the concerns that worked against recommend- corporate-tax rate also to 25 percent, or politically, we’re going to ing this tax: some panel members were ex- lower. tremely worried that this would be such an have to think about alter- effective revenue-raising device that it When we lower the individual and corpo- would lead to growth in the size of govern- rate income tax rates, these taxes in the Unit- natives beyond those in the ment. As one of the jokes about the vat ed States as a percentage of gdp would com- goes, “the reason we don’t have one is be- prise about 4 percent, compared to their cur- panel’s report. . . . Tax cause the Republicans think it’s a money rent 10 or 11.8 percent, of gdp. These two machine and the Democrats think it’s re- measures would make these income taxes as reform will involve many gressive, and as soon as they switch sides, a percentage of gdp lower in the United we’ll enact one immediately.” States than in any of the oecd countries. hard choices.

Then I would enact a vat. As a percentage The growth-and-investment tax–and the of gdp, the United States relies much less panel recognizes this–has two major prob- Questions and Answers heavily on consumption taxes than any of lems. First, it doesn’t work for ½nancial the other countries in the world with whom institutions because of a number of tech- Question: Judging by the reaction to your we compete. The vat would replace the nical issues. The bigger problem is that the thoughtful report, there seems to be a dif- revenue lost by taking all of these people out tax doesn’t work internationally. The growth- ference between what may be economically of the income tax structure, raising the tax- and-investment tax would require us to re- sensible and what may be politically possi- free level to $100,000, and lowering the rate negotiate all 86 of our bilateral income tax ble. One of the concerns about a consump- to 25 percent. We would need somewhere treaties throughout the world because this tion or value-added tax must be the 76 mil- between a 10 and 14 percent vat to do that, tax prohibits a deduction for interest at the lion baby boomers, who have made a lot of depending on our value-added tax and corporate level. Our treaties provide that, in income that’s been taxed and who are now income tax bases. That 14 percent tax would order to have an income tax, a country has entering their retirement years. They’re put us at about the same level as consump- to have a deduction for interest. The tax going to spend that income, and it’s going to tion taxes in the oecd and Europe. would also be border adjustable (meaning it be taxed again as they consume. Moreover, assesses imports and exempts exports), but I also would suggest a substitute for the these are the politically active people who we can’t legally put that into effect under the eitc: refund some payroll taxes and do not vote. Could you talk about the political reali- General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs require people to ½le tax returns in order to ties and what might be possible, especially ( ). So, we would have to convince get their refunds. Here’s the payoff: of the gatt as you transition from an income- to a con- Congress as well as all other countries to 130 million tax returns now being ½led, 100 sumption-based tax? million disappear, leaving roughly 30 mil- renegotiate the gatt–a transition problem lion returns and making April 15 just another that is very different from the usual trans- Poterba: Let me start by explaining the basis day for about 150 million people. ition problems in tax reform. for this question, just to make sure everyone understands the problem it alludes to. Envi- In order to move forward politically, we’re I wouldn’t get rid of the income tax com- sion a situation in which you earned income going to have to think about alternatives pletely, as many people want to do. I keep it last year and paid the 35 percent income tax beyond those in the panel’s report. I pro- to avoid the shift in the distribution of in- on it. You’ve got $10,000 saved outside an posed the changes I have just discussed to come that would result if we didn’t tax some ira to help fund your retirement spending. of the income at the top. Jim talked about the panel, and it did not unanimously accept

24 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 elderly that they will be double-taxed under are higher? In most of those cases, there’s a Taxing old saving again these systems. Thus, politically, it may be body of evidence that is not absolutely con- very dif½cult to tax the existing assets. vincing, but that suggests that if we had has some appeal from the lower tax burdens, we would see more sav- standpoint of economic Graetz:I just want to emphasize one thing ing and investment, which would lead to that Jim said. It’s only a double-tax for the more growth. income that’s already been taxed and not for ef½ciency, but it may be income that’s going to be taxed. If you have One of the important challenges to recognize viewed as unfair and it investment income, it would be taxed under is that in an increasingly global economy, the income tax. If you have pension income, encouraging saving and encouraging invest- does raise the problem that it would be taxed under the income tax. If ing are different things. In a closed economic you have Social Security income, and you’ve system such as a single isolated country, taxpayers may fear future got more than $25,000 of income, it would when individuals save, the resources get in- be taxed under the income tax. Consequently vested in the economy. This leads to a larger double taxes. these people are going to pay a lot of income productive capital stock and higher pro- taxes. At least under my plan, the taxes bal- ductivity. In an open economy, however, And now Congress announces that it is ance out because if they pay lower income when policy encourages individuals to save going to eliminate the income tax and re- taxes, they pay higher consumption taxes. –in the United States, for example, by build- place it with a national sales tax at a rate of The people at the very top-end are paying ing bigger 401(k)s and bigger iras–the 30 percent. In some sense, your $10,000 in more than they would because it’s basically most productive place to invest those new the bank has just been reduced in value, be- a 39 percent total rate, rather than a 35 per- resources may be in another nation. In this cause now you’re going to have to pay the cent total rate, if they consume everything. setting the saving country does not get a sales tax at 30 percent, whereas you used to But somebody’s got to pay for government. larger capital stock. Instead, its residents receive the return, later on, on their capital think of the sales tax as a nominal state-level Question:My question goes to the longer investment abroad. In the U.S. case, these tax. Those who have accumulated assets history of taxes and growth since World insights suggest that we could encourage under the old rules are hit by the consump- War II and the observation that some have investing without encouraging saving by tion tax going forward. Notice, by the way, made that during the ½rst thirty years after making it more attractive for foreign corpor- that if you had put the money into an ira or World War II, when tax rates were sub- ations to invest here. The open global capital a 401(k) where it wasn’t taxed the ½rst time stantially higher at the margins, we had market can make it dif½cult to interpret sta- out, then you’re all right, because instead much better growth than we’ve had in the tistics like the ones that your question men- of paying the income tax when you make a last thirty years, when tax rates have been tioned. withdrawal from one of these accounts, you lower. So, is the appropriate growth-and- now pay the consumption tax instead. But investment tax one with higher marginal for those with retirement saving or other rates? wealth in taxable accounts, there would be One of the important chal- a double tax. Poterba: Economists love to point out the dif½culties of drawing strong inferences lenges to recognize is that in Taxing old saving again has some appeal from what are called time-series correla- from the standpoint of economic ef½ciency, tions. Yours is an example of how it’s hard an increasingly global eco- but it may be viewed as unfair and it does to control for all the other factors that were raise the problem that taxpayers may fear contributing to growth: the stock of knowl- nomy, encouraging saving future double taxes. Taxing past saving edge accumulated in World War II, the baby and encouraging invest- makes it possible to lower all marginal rates boomers entering into a highly productive going forward because it yields revenue that period, the growth in the U.S. educational ing are different things. would otherwise have been collected from system. taxes on wages or future capital income. Un- fortunately, such a tax would also lower the Economists draw information by looking standard of living of the people who saved at more narrowly focused experiments. For Question: The vat does influence trade, before. Now, there are some who will argue example, when we enact bonus depreciation thus affecting the trade de½cit, per se. One that that has some appeal because the baby for a couple of years, do we see more plant of the primary reasons the Europeans de- boomers are the ones who, as Michael’s and equipment investment? When we com- cided to push more on the vat is because it comments suggested, are going to put tre- pare countries with higher versus lower tax helps their trade. When I talk to people in mendous ½scal strains on our system when burdens on capital income, do we see some- other countries, including in the United they receive Social Security and Medicare what higher investment rates in places Kingdom and France, they’re very much and Medicaid. To ½nance some of that with where the tax burdens are somewhat lower? aware that the vat gives them a big advan- a consumption tax as they draw down their When we ½nd rare experiments that are gen- tage in world trade. Right now, the United assets may be a way of getting them to pay erated by either tax reform or by circum- States has a huge trade problem. Would you for that on a pay-as-you-go basis. But the stances that individuals face, do we see them speak to the one point you didn’t discuss– aarp has ½gured this out, and they are basically saving a bit more when the tax the trade de½cit. actively explaining to the elderly and not-so- burdens are lower than when these burdens

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 25 Graetz: Just so everybody understands, a being shipped abroad. That’s the standard people making incomes below $100,000 value-added tax gives you a trade advantage argument made for a sales tax or a vat : we from the tax system, though, politicians compared to a corporate income tax because collect the tax on the imported goods and do would lose the bene½t of saying, “Well, you’re taxing imports and exempting ex- not collect the tax on the exports; therefore, we’re going to give you a tax break for this.” ports. So you’ve increased the price of im- the tax promotes exports. ports relative to exports. Today, we’re im- In completing a book on social insurance, porting so much more than we’re exporting The economists in the audience can see that I discovered that doing social insurance with flexible exchange rates, the exchange through the tax system doesn’t work. You rate can undo the effect of taxing the goods end up rewarding the top-half of the income . . .a value-added tax gives coming into the country and not taxing the scale and creating all sorts of strange incen- goods going out. Michael’s comment about tives. The health-insurance system is a per- you a trade advantage be- what happens when the exchange rate is not fect example. We have this tax-preferred free is the ½rst important argument. way of doing health insurance–what are the cause you’re taxing imports results? We’ve got the highest health costs There’s a second one, though. Consider a in the world, more uninsured people than and exempting exports. world with no taxes, and then ask if putting elsewhere, and no better health outcomes. in place a or a sales tax would help your vat Health insurance is the Titanic of domestic that changing that price looks like some- trade balance. Many economists would say, policy. It doesn’t work. thing you might do. I’ve had these debates “The answer to that question is no,” and with economists endlessly, and the econo- expect rather to see changes in the exchange We have to change the political incentives. mists will tell you that it doesn’t matter be- rate. But ask, “What if I replace the corpo- In order to do so, we have to get masses of cause exchange rates will shift and wash out rate income tax or the individual income tax people out of the income tax because that’s the difference completely. But this assumes with the sales tax, and I reduce the tax bur- where all of this politicking has been taking that exchange rates move freely, and at least dens currently levied on capital income in place. If we had a pure income tax, or a some of our big trading partners–China the United States, putting a tax on consump- growth-and-investment tax, or even the flat comes to mind–don’t seem too willing to tion instead?” Then–and this is the part tax of Hall and Robushka–where people let their exchange rates move quite so freely. that doesn’t get emphasized enough–the would supposedly ½le postcard returns be- economists will line up with the business cause we would tax only wages for individ- Although it didn’t count the revenue from people and say, “Yes, in fact, this is a system uals–it wouldn’t be a postcard for very the tax on imports that it would get, the that is going to promote capital investment long. Because if all of those people are pay- panel decided to make this growth-and- and exports because it’s lowering our cost of ing taxes and ½ling returns, the incentives investment-tax proposal border-adjustable doing business.” So you’re right: there would for U.S. politicians are just too great to re- in the same way that the vat is. The prob- be some pro-export effect of moving to these ward them with a tax break for this or that. lem, which they acknowledge, is that border kinds of systems, but it is not because we do And politics will continue, and reform will adjusting is illegal under the gatt, because not tax the exports. It is because we replace unravel, just as the 1986 Act has unraveled in there is a deduction for wages. Here is another taxes that burden exports with the the last two decades. other argument for going to the standard sales-tax structure. vat. I don’t think there’s a solution short of Poterba: Let me begin by clarifying the Question:The difference between the really narrowing the scope of the income tax standard economic analysis of border ad- European systems and the American one is so that it really does become a special- justments. Think about the current world of that the chicken-soup effect is far smaller interest issue and not one for the broad an income tax, and the decision of whether there. You don’t use the tax system to solve public. to buy a doll produced in China versus a doll various social ills. I think this is probably produced in Arkansas–there’s a level play- more important than the vat . What do you ing ½eld there. Now move to a world where think about that? © 2006 by John S. Reed, James Poterba, and we have a sales tax. The sales tax, presum- Graetz:I have two things to say about it. Michael J. Graetz, respectively. ably, gives you the same level playing ½eld– First, the reason the United States uses the everything’s getting taxed, so there’s no tax system in instances where the rest of the greater incentive to buy something pro- world uses other forms of social insurance is duced in one place versus another. Even a political and historical story, not an ana- when goods come into the country from lytical one. I think it’s very important to China, provided they are charged the sales- eliminate the ½ling of tax returns by a very tax rate, the neutrality proposition remains large swath of Americans in part because true. Note that the tax is collected on goods most of these very costly provisions–sacred coming into the country, but not on goods cows, including education expenses, the that are shipped abroad. This observation health accounts, and so forth–are not spe- implies that the retail tax would be collected cial-interest provisions; they’re general- on goods coming into the country, but not interest provisions. They’re enacted to help on domestically produced goods that are the broad taxpaying public. If we removed

26 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Michael J. Graetz (Yale University), John S. Reed (Citigroup), and James Poterba (MIT)

Benoit Mandelbrot (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) and Herman Chernoff Elias Gyftopoulos (MIT) and George Hatsopoulos (Pharos, LLC) (Harvard University)

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 27 Barry Bloom is Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health and the Joan L. and Julius H. Jacobson Professor of Public Health. He received his B.A. from Amherst College, his M.A. degree from Harvard University, and his Ph.D. from Rockefeller University. Wide- ly recognized in the ½eld of infectious diseases, vaccines, and international health, he was elected President of the American Asso- ciation of Immunologists in 1984, and Pres- ident of the Federation of American Soci- eties for Experimental Biology in 1985. Formerly a Howard Hughes Investigator at the Albert Einstein School of Medicine, Bloom came to Harvard seven years ago to become Dean of the School of Public Health. Howard Koh is Harvey V. Fineberg Professor of the Practice of Public Health and Director of the Harvard School of Public Health Cen- ter for Public Health Preparedness. He grad- uated from Yale College and Yale Medical School; trained in residencies at Massa- Courtesy of the National Museum Health and Medicine, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Washington, D.C. (Reeve 2707). chusetts General Hospital and at Boston City Hospital; received a Master of Public Health from Boston University; joined the Preparing for Pandemics faculty there; and, in 1997, was appointed by Governor Weld as the Commissioner of Barry R. Bloom and Howard Koh Public Health for the Commonwealth of Introduction by Joseph Boyd Martin Massachusetts–a position he held for six years. As Commissioner, Dr. Koh led the This presentation was given at the 1899th Stated Meeting, held at the House of the Department of Public Health, which en- Academy on March 8, 2006. compasses a wide range of services, four hospitals, and a staff of over 3,000 public- health professionals. Barry R. Bloom is Dean of the Faculty of Public in general. Today, I received the March 3, Health and Joan L. and Julius H. Jacobson Pro- 2006, issue of Science. The two lead articles fessor of Public Health at the Harvard School of in the news section are on H5N1 avian flu. Public Health. He has been a Fellow of the Amer- The ½rst comes from an investigator in Italy, Barry R. Bloom ican Academy since 1990. Ilaria Capua, who is concerned that data collected on migratory patterns of birds af- Howard Koh is Harvey V. Fineberg Professor of fected by the flu are not published quickly We live in a world where about 1.2 billion the Practice of Public Health and Director of the enough to develop the science of migration. people live on less than a dollar a day, and Harvard School of Public Health Center for Instead, she argues, the need to gain recog- almost half of the global population lives on Public Health Preparedness. nition for one’s work and elevate one’s less than two dollars a day. The disparities– in health as well as income–are probably Joseph Boyd Martin is Dean of the Faculty of status in academia is delaying the publication of the databases that would give us a sense greater now than they were in 1970. More Medicine and Caroline Shields Walker Professor people are living in poverty, and half a bil- of Neurobiology and Clinical Neuroscience at of how this potential pandemic might emerge. The second article focuses on the clear evi- lion kids in this world are hungry. At the Harvard Medical School. He has been a Fellow same time, 200,000 people are born every of the American Academy since 1980. dence we now have implicating migratory birds in the H5N1 spread; we now know that day. Another important demographic factor sick birds can fly to distant sites, where they to consider when examining infectious dis- may then transmit the problem to other eases is the formation of megacities–cities Joseph Boyd Martin birds. with more than 5 million people. By 2015, the world will have 37 of those. Tonight, we have two experts, Barry Bloom It’s dif½cult to get through the day without and Howard Koh, who will approach the Some other social, environmental, and po- reading about influenza, bird or avian flu, topic of pandemics from different perspec- litical realities to consider: In a very large pandemics, flu shots, or impending disasters tives. number of countries, over 40 percent of the

28 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 population is under the age of 15; if not Figure 1: Influenza Pandemics 1700–Present healthy and educated, they will not contri- bute to the economic and cultural development of those countries. Global warming is going to have profound effects on the patterns of infectious and vector-borne diseases; and, as the oceans rise because of the melt- ing of the polar cap, many countries, like China and those in the Middle East, are going to have real problems with shortages of water. And don’t forget, we are trying to deal with health problems in a world that has had about 30 civil and foreign wars, 35 million displaced people, and 127 failed states in the last 40 years. It’s tough to do public-health work in those circumstances. So what does an epidemic look like? Let’s begin with a hypothetical situation: Imagine that, on September 12, we detect a case of a flu-like illness. A week later, there are 6,500 cases. A week after that, 12,000 cases and Average frequency: 3–4/100 years Adapted from KD Patterson, Pandemic Influenza, 1700–1900 627 deaths. In a few months, this agent in- (Rowman & Little½eld, 1986) fects a quarter of the civilian population. And in six months, 20 to 40 million people people think we can count on a pandemic or reemerged (from rotavirus to Legionnaires’ die. It turns out this case is not hypothetical. occurring, and why we ought to be prepared: disease to lyme disease) and that we didn’t Those are real data from Camp Devens, Mass- time is running out. know about before 1982: hiv; helicobactor achusetts, in 1918. During that time, in this pylori, which causes ulcers; bird flu in 1998; Until recently, people have largely discounted country, a half percent of the people infected West Nile in New York; anthrax; and sars infectious diseases, with attention going to with the great flu died from it. Globally, the are just some better known examples. cancer and to chronic diseases–cardiovas- number of deaths was probably on the order cular, diabetes, and neuropsychiatric dis- Is this a new problem for our era? In order of 4 percent, somewhere upwards of 50 mil- eases. The Surgeon General of the United to answer this question, I looked up some lion people–more than all the deaths of States in 1968 wonderfully exempli½ed how past infectious diseases. I saw that pandemics World War I. wrong government of½cials can be in pre- and epidemics have occurred throughout One of the reasons we are here tonight is be- dicting the future: “We can now close the history. Some looked like flu, or conceiv- cause of the resurrection of those strains ably, an early historical precedent for SARS: from the Alaskan tundra in a museum jar in smallpox, the Black Death, the White Death, the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology. It has been 28 years since the Great Pox, syphilis, the Red Sickness, Molecular genetics reconstructed the 1918 scarlet fever, jail fever, malaria. So when one virus and revealed it was a strain of bird flu. we last faced a pandemic. asks what is the likelihood that we will face new emerging infectious diseases, the an- Pandemics occur. We would love to be able That’s why a lot of people swer is high. We just don’t know what and to know when they will occur, but we don’t. when. As you can see in ½gure 1, pandemics occur think we can count on a on an irregular basis. Most scientists believe pandemic occurring, and Now let us consider the impact of pandemics that, sooner or later, a strain that we haven’t on demography by taking the worst-case seen before and that we aren’t immune to why we ought to be pre- scenario–the 1918 flu. If we look at the mor- will be transmitted between people and be tality rates for the United States from 1900 carried around the world. Different strains pared: time is running out. to the 1980s, we see a very striking spike dur- have arisen since the 1918 H1N1 Spanish flu: ing the 1918–1919 period, indicating the devastating impact of the flu on survival in the Asian flu in 1957, a quite different strain; book on infectious diseases.” Yogi Berra had the United States (see ½gure 2). It’s clear and the Hong Kong flu in 1968, again a dif- it right when he said, “It’s tough to make pre- that these infectious diseases, if we don’t ferent, or partially different, strain. These dictions, especially about the future.” represented major shifts in the composition deal with them, have tremendous potential of the virus; and since we hadn’t seen them Are emerging infections and epidemics a to do enormous damage. before, we didn’t have prior immunity to real threat to the world? Or is it an epidemic The deaths that occur each year from sea- them. In none of those cases was there, at of the press? During the last 30 years in the sonal flu can help us understand the destruc- the time, a vaccine. It has been 28 years since United States, there have been 32 major in- tion a pandemic could potentially wreak. we last faced a pandemic. That’s why a lot of fectious diseases that had either never existed

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 29 Figure 2: Infectious Disease Mortality, We are very fortunate in the case of H5N1 United States – 20th Century and the avian viruses because these viruses don’t easily enter human beings directly. Otherwise, we would have been “done in” when they ½rst emerged a few years ago. In order for them to get into humans, they have to infect an intermediate host, like a pig. Pig viruses do get into humans. If a pig has a bird virus and a human or swine virus, the genes of the different viruses can shuffle, creating a new virus with the virulence genes of the bird virus and the transmission to humans of the swine or human strain. In countries like China, where people live in close contact with chickens and pigs, a perfect cycle can occur–the viruses get from the bird to the pig and from the pig to humans. Thus, new viruses are being made 0 constantly. And when they have an h and an n we’ve never seen before, we have a scenario for a pandemic.

Source: Adapted from GL Armstrong, LA Conn, and RW Pinner, “Trends in infectious disease mortality in the United States during the 20th century,” JAMA 281 (1) (January 1999): 61–66. How do we plan to prevent the spread of bird flu H5N1? We know, already, that China We actually know a lot about seasonal flu and the elderly. But when you look at the has something on the order of 13 to 15 billion and have learned quite a bit from it. One pandemics of 1918, 1957, etc.–the spike in chickens. So the idea of running around important fact to note about seasonal flu is deaths occurs in young adults, during their China, vaccinating every chicken, may not that it occurs every year–usually in the most productive years. This is a signi½cant be feasible. Yet this idea of stopping it in its autumn, shortly after summer. Every year, difference between the seasonal flu and a place of origin is a major part of the U.S. we can pretty much count on a set of new pandemic strain for which we have no prior strategy. The magnitude of chickens in Asia strains to which we are not fully immune immunity. The devastation that a pandemic is not the only problem with this plan. Mi- emerging (usually in Asia) and coming to flu can create is clear. But how do new strains grating birds can also carry the virus around the United States. With few exceptions, a of flu arise every year? And how do we think the world, disseminating it through drop- group of reference labs that reports to the about preparing for them? pings or when they drop dead. Ducks–or at World Health Organization has done a mar- least certain kinds of ducks–are also quite velous job picking up on the most prevalent Even with good vaccines, dangerous. For reasons not clear to me, they strains anticipated to spread around the can carry and shed the virus, and not get sick world. Thanks to their surveillance work 34,000 people in the Unit- at all–and China has lots of ducks. and the sophisticated vaccine industry, this country has, within nine months, the vac- ed States die from influen- Bird flu, mercifully, isn’t easily transmitted cines to prevent seasonal flu. Yet, even with between humans yet. There are a couple of good vaccines, 34,000 people in the United za. If we can’t even protect mutations that would enable facile trans- States die from influenza. If we can’t even mission. There have still been only 174 hu- protect everyone against seasonal flu, how everyone against seasonal man cases and 94 deaths. These numbers are we going to deal with a pandemic? are quite different from those of the 1918 flu, flu, how are we going to when the mortality rate was 0.5 percent do- In addition, these numbers do not reflect the mestically and 4 percent worldwide. We deaths that were probably indirectly caused deal with a pandemic? know that many of the genes that were mu- by flu but not scored as influenza-related. It tated in the 1918 strain are out there in birds, is fascinating that there appears to be a tem- When we say “H5N1” and “H7N2,” the letters but not in the same virus. Whether a new poral correlation between cases of pneumo- indicate the two major outer proteins in the pandemic strain will incorporate these genes, nia and influenza and deaths from cardio- virus, against which we have to develop a or others, remains unclear. vascular disease and stroke. So the deaths good immune response to avoid getting the attributable to infectious disease extend flu: the “H” refers to the hemagglutinin We didn’t know until recently how this beyond those directly caused by the infec- protein; the “N” refers to neuraminidase. virus could spread around the world so tious disease itself. There are at least 15 H’s and 9 N’s in birds we quickly. Now we know part of the answer know about. The flu is also different from lies in migratory bird patterns that are well The sheer number of possible fatalities is many other viruses in that it has not just a known to people who study veterinary not the only reason people should be fright- single chromosome, but comes in multiple medicine: the East Asian flyway; the East ened of pandemic flu. Ordinary flu, as you segments, which move around or segregate Africa–West Africa one; the Black Sea– well know, is pretty tough on young children independently in host cells. Mediterranean one. The East Atlantic

30 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 flyway is of particular interest. It’s very like- there are two parameters that really count. 1918 flu, the R0, would be far greater than in ly that if the virus gets past Europe into our One is “R0,” the basic reproductive number. the case of sars because the flu killed so hemisphere, it will take this path and this This number tells you how many secondary many people. In fact, the R0 was no greater travel is going to be very hard to stop. We infectious cases derive from a single infec- than that of sars, maybe even a little less. tious case. For example, an R0 of 4 tells you My response: “We didn’t really know how that a single infectious case will infect 4 peo- serious sars could have been.” But it could Obviously, the fact that we ple. Each of them, in turn, will affect 4 more. also mean, in the case of the bird flu, that if haven’t a clue about what Any R0 greater than 1 means that 1 person is we knew what to do and could do it, we could infecting more than 1 other individual and, get an R0 of less than 1 and eventually squash the next pandemic is going inevitably, the epidemic will spread. So the the epidemic. challenge of public health is to reduce the to consist of has major im- R to less than 1. But there’s a catch. The major difference be- 0 tween the 1918 flu and sars is not the trans- plications for preparedness. The second parameter is v, the serial interval, missibility–the R0. It’s the serial interval v. or the time between the development of the In the case of the 1918 flu, the v was 2 to 4 may be able to vaccinate chickens in chicken ½rst case and a secondary case. The public- days–people were transmitting the flu before farms, but it’s not easy to get your hands on health system has to work within this time they even knew they were sick. So the idea migratory birds. frame. of identifying sick people, isolating them, and quarantining their contacts, as we did What are the R and for flu? Until Harvard Where has the virus gone since 2003? It has 0 v with sars, becomes very dif½cult. epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch’s work, nobody been found in birds in over 30 countries, and really knew. After all, if you were a really What would a pandemic, not as bad as in many of those countries, small numbers good academic, why would you waste your the 1918 flu but still pretty bad, look like? of cases have involved direct animal contact. time trying to model last year’s flu, when According to the U.S. government’s pro- It’s all over Asia and Russia and is now mov- next year’s flu would be different? Because jections, 200,000,000 people would be ing into Europe. It’s also in Africa, which is the strains of flu changed every year, no one infected, with perhaps 75 million sick, 50 quite worrisome because the health infra- ever believed that we could generalize a million needing outpatient care, 500,000 structures in those countries are not in a model. In this context, Marc’s idea of taking needing hospital care that we can’t provide, position to deal with this crisis. Here, it’s the worst-case scenario was brilliant. Why and 100,000 dead. As for the economy, a important to note that migratory routes are not model the transmission of the 1918 flu? mild epidemic, according to the Congres- circular. Whatever has moved into Africa or No epidemiologist had ever done it–so he sional Budget Of½ce, would cost us about Europe would be predicted to move back did it. There were weekly and monthly data $60 billion. In the worst case, it would im- into Asia, picking up stuff along the way. showing the number of flu cases in 1918 in pact by $500 billion. These reintroductions, which occur multi- gdp fortysome U.S. cities–an extraordinary ple times in multiple places, make the flu database from which one can estimate the What can we do? By isolating the infected, dif½cult to control. We talk about the H5N1 number of people who died in each of those quarantining contacts, screening borders, strain because it is spreading in birds, but cities and then model what would happen if improving hospitals, closing schools and there are other flu viruses that are also in a similar pandemic strain got loose. public gatherings, and increasing social birds, like H5N2 and H7N2, and have killed distance, we were able to stem sars. My or infected people in Canada, New York, the During the course of the sars epidemic, Netherlands, and China. Marc and colleagues and a group in London So if there is a pandemic, we don’t know also modeled an infection in real time for Currently, we have good whether it’s going to be H5N1 or not. There the ½rst time in history. They estimated an vaccines against regular are flu experts who say that the ubiquity of R0 of 3 for sars. Their model told us that the H5N1 is such that if it were really going by both isolating patients and quarantining flu. We need a similar to jump into humans, it would have done so those exposed to others with sars, and already. They’re worried about other strains. with a little luck, we could get an R0 of less vaccine against bird flu. Obviously, the fact that we haven’t a clue than 1, and the epidemic would disappear. about what the next pandemic is going to When China ½nally got its act together to do But how do you make a consist of has major implications for pre- both, the epidemic went away. paredness. Unfortunately, the United States Since sars had a serial interval somewhere vaccine against a strain and most of the world seems to want to com- of between 8 and 10 days, there was time to that doesn’t yet exist? bat H5N1 in Asia by getting our hands on all identify people who were sick. In addition, the birds in an infected flock and killing there was no evidence of transmission by sense is that travel restrictions and local them off. But this strategy will be ineffec- people who were infected but appeared quarantine alone are very unlikely to work tive, unless we pay a decent compensation healthy; only when they actually showed in the event of a pandemic flu. We will cer- to the farmers whose birds are being culled. signs of sickness were they able to transmit. tainly try them, but we know they’re likely Before we can counter an epidemic, we need Now compare the 1918 flu to sars. I would to fail because of asymptomatic travelers to characterize how severe it will be. Here, have guessed that the transmissibility of the whom we have no way of detecting but who

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 31 will inevitably spread the disease. There is produce? Would we have enough for every- Second, we can try to prevent the spread of the added problem of smuggled birds and body in the country? If not, what would the disease between animals and humans. Euro- pets. With half a million people crossing the market be like for the vaccine? Would only peans now keep all chickens in houses that U.S. borders every day, it’s going to be very the rich be able to afford it? How would we have roofs to keep droppings from contam- tough to keep the virus out of here. distribute it? inating them. Otherwise, we don’t have many options, except good hygiene–hand wash- Today, we only have enough seasonal-flu ing or even masks. To contain the disease, vaccine for a quarter of the people in the country, and we know from research trials In the event of an emergency, we also need we have to know, in a on bird-flu strains that it takes at least four mechanisms to inform the public truthfully times as much, under present circumstances, about what we know and don’t, and to keep crisis, who’s sick from bird to get a comparable immune response. Pro- their social distance. Medically, we must duction will be a problem. Companies won’t stockpile antivirals to keep people from dy- flu and who has any of a make this vaccine if they’re not given immu- ing, and we must contain the disease to the nity from liability, and that’s hard to do un- extent that we can. We can give people some slew of flu-like illnesses. less you guarantee everybody who takes it vaccines even now. For many older people, that they’re going to receive indemnity if the major consequence of flu is death from What about drugs? Can Tamiflu or Zana- they experience any adverse effects. We pneumonia. We already have very good pneu- mivir prevent a pandemic in this country? know what the adverse effects are for child- mococcal vaccines, so we can be more effec- By reducing viruses and the viral load, they hood vaccines, which enables us to have a tive in preventing this type of death. We will keep people who have a serious case of compensation program based on what we could also administer more flu-vaccine strains. the flu from dying. But it is almost incon- know are appropriate symptoms of adverse If we had a vaccine for a new flu, I would add ceivable to me, except under the most fav- effects. But we have no idea what the ad- this fourth strain–an avian strain–to the orable conditions, that they could stop an verse effects of a bird-flu vaccine are. Final- three seasonal strains we give out every year epidemic in one place, not to mention mul- ly, even if we had a vaccine, we would have and start building up immunity to bird strains. tiple sites simultaneously. We couldn’t get dif½culty getting it out there and getting Even if it’s the wrong strain, it could be them out quickly enough. Since only one people to take a new strain. helpful. company makes Tamiflu, we don’t have How might a pandemic affect us? Right off To contain the disease, we have to know, in a enough, nor will there be enough, at least in the bat, we know that it will make a lot of crisis, who’s sick from bird flu and who has the near future. While drugs are important people sick, disrupt the health-care system, any of a slew of flu-like illnesses. Currently, tools for treating people who do get sick, and, if it’s really serious, cause a huge num- Harvard University and most of the hospitals and can prevent people from dying, I don’t ber of deaths. It’s going to wipe out the trav- don’t have diagnostics. We must develop see drugs as a way of preventing an epidem- el and hospitality industries. It’s going to them if we want to be able to distinguish be- ic in the United States. interfere with business supply and demand, tween seasonal flu and a pandemic strain. Currently, we have good vaccines against particularly if an industry relies on a just-in- regular flu. We need a similar vaccine against time approach that depends on a steady, bird flu. But how do you make a vaccine balanced flow of materials throughout the Our highest priority should against a strain that doesn’t yet exist? And production process. If everybody is home be to work really hard to when we do know what that strain is, how sick, you’re in trouble. A pandemic will also do we tool up the vaccine industry so that affect essential services and human resources. get a vaccine against all we can actually produce a vaccine in a time- It’s going to disrupt government; legislatures ly fashion? Everybody who died in 1919 died will not function. Kids will not go to school. kinds of strains because in 5 or 6 months. Right now, we can’t get a There will be public protests. When we ob- vaccine for seasonal flu in fewer than 9 tain vaccines and drugs, they’re always go- one of them may be the months. We don’t have enough seasonal flu ing to be scarce, at least the way we’re going vaccine, let alone the potential to create about it now, and this scarcity will cause right one and it could be massive amounts of vaccine against a new nightmarish disputes. strain. And we don’t have that potential too late to develop it once because there aren’t enough fertilized eggs So, what’s our strategy? We have a couple the epidemic is underway. in the world, which we currently use to cul- of options we can think about now. Clearly, tivate vaccines. A big thrust in research is to one of them is to reduce the risks through ½nd an alternative method of growing flu surveillance–get an early warning of what’s We must raise “surge” capacity by increasing vaccine so that we can produce more vac- coming. Right now, surveillance in poor the number of hospital beds as well as avail- cine than we are capable of at the moment. countries is particularly ineffective because able antivirals and ventilators for people in we have not provided them with adequate respiratory distress. Massachusetts has spec- And if we had a vaccine, we would still face laboratories, training, and research oppor- tacular respiratory surge capacity, but it still signi½cant dilemmas: How much could we tunities. doesn’t have enough ventilators. Finally, we need people who consider the risks and chal-

32 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 lenges of a pandemic, including what to pri- Howard Koh are disproportionately affected. In this case, oritize when resources and knowledge are this vulnerable population was overwhelm- limited. ingly African American, poor and without In the twenty-½rst century, some extraor- insurance, and/or without the ability to mo- Most scientists believe there will be muta- dinary public-health challenges have already bilize and move. We should consider these tions in some bird-flu strain that will enable confronted us. In 2001, the United States ex- issues with respect to preparedness for any it to jump between humans. It has happened perienced bioterrorism and anthrax, which disaster, particularly pandemic flu. before. It’s just not clear to me whether it’s culminated in 22 cases and 5 tragic deaths. going to be H5N1, but we do have time. De- Then, the global community suffered through Why should we be concerned about this dis- veloping a strain that picks up all the bad sars in 2003–over 8,500 cases; the Indian parity? Because in this shrinking world, what genes from 1918, or its equivalent, in a single Ocean tsunami in 2004–300,000 dead or happens to some of us concerns and affects virus could take time. However, no one knows missing; and Hurricane Katrina in 2005– all of us. Consider, for instance, the known where the 1918 flu came from. It did not come over 1,300 dead. Now, the ongoing threat of practice of Asian farmers sleeping with their from any known source that accumulated pandemic flu is upon us. With all these chal- poultry. Infections in such farmers, a trage- bad genes over time. It appeared out of lenges and many more to come, the question dy in and of itself, could potentially ignite nowhere. is: how do we build the best public-health disease in broader populations around the system possible, one that will protect all world. As the columnist James Carroll has On the systems side, we people, all the time? written, “Avian flu makes the point. A disease that incubates among the world’s most should recognize that all The World Health Organization (who) impoverished people can threaten the most describes six potential phases for pandemic privileged. We humans are all down river epidemics, like politics, are flu. According to this framework, we are from the same coming flood. No one is safe currently in phase three: human infections unless everyone is.” local. They may spread documented, but no, or rare, instances of human-to-human spread. To date, who Second, we need better surge capacity. The globally, but we ½ght them has con½rmed about 175 cases and about 95 Health Resources Services Administration deaths worldwide. Everyone fears that we (hrsa) de½nes surge capacity as “a health- locally. will, at some point, move through phases care system’s ability to rapidly expand beyond four and ½ve, and then, ultimately, into normal services to meet the increased demand The tactics that worked with sars–like phase six–a pandemic period–marked by in the event of large-scale public-health isolation, quarantine, and closing borders– increased, sustained human transmission. emergencies or disasters.” In the event of a are not going to be particularly serious op- disaster, are we truly capable of further ramp- tions for a disease that has a serial interval So, as we live and work in the midst of a pan- ing up our health-care system, which is cur- of two days and a transmission rate even as demic-alert period–phase three–what rently operating at full capacity? We have low as three, nor are drugs likely to prevent should be our priorities? I would like to pro- no choice but to build that capacity to pre- the spread of the pandemic. This means our pose ½ve teaching points: vent suffering and death from pandemics. highest priority should be to work really hard · First, pandemics, and disasters in general, to get a vaccine against all kinds of strains expose global disparities. because one of them may be the right one How do we build the best and it could be too late to develop it once the · Second, we must create better surge capac- public-health system possi- epidemic is underway. On the systems side, ity. we should recognize that all epidemics, like ble, one that will protect all politics, are local. They may spread globally, · Third, we need ongoing risk communication but we ½ght them locally. Unfortunately, we to rebuild trust in our public-health system. people, all the time? have degraded our local public-health systems · Fourth, all preparedness starts locally, so and infrastructure over a long period of time. building social capital is essential. We need more space, staff, and supplies. According to the hrsa, communities Can we prepare? I’m always optimistic. One · Fifth, and most important, preparedness should aim for an additional 500 hospital of the leaders of the Manhattan Project, Leo means reinvesting in a rejuvenated public- beds per million people (urban settings); Szilard, later became a key ½gure among sci- health system. more decontamination facilities, portable entists opposing the use of the A-bomb, and and ½xed; more isolation facilities per First, Hurricane Katrina exempli½ed tragi- he gave what is my favorite de½nition of an health-care system; more doctors, nurses, cally the fact that pandemics and disasters optimist: “An optimist is someone who be- and other allied health-care workers; and expose global disparities. Instead of affect- lieves the future is uncertain.” more supplies and equipment, such as ven- ing all people equally, Hurricane Katrina tilators and personal protective equipment exposed disparities in terms of race/ethnicity, (ppe). socioeconomic status, age, mobility and dis- ability level, and many other dimensions. How does our society build surge capacity We witnessed what happens when prepar- for a possible pandemic tomorrow when edness does not work: the most vulnerable there are so many pressing medical needs

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 33 today? That is a challenge when the health- the Secretary of Public Safety, fbi of½cials, community level. In his fascinating book, care system is already at full throttle. In and U.S. Postal Service leaders. Our common Bowling Alone, Harvard professor and world- Massachusetts, statewide hospitals have mission was to keep the public informed renowned author, Robert Putnam, argues through a very uncertain time and coordinate that the cohesion of the American community protection for all 6.5 million people in this has declined dramatically to the point that Pandemics and disasters Commonwealth. we don’t know our neighbors and don’t invest in building social capital as we did in expose global disparities. Now, recent public-health events have again the past. The threat of a pandemic offers an underscored the critical importance of high- opportunity to reinvest in our communities, 16,500 licensed acute-care beds, but only level risk communication. One prominent rebuild trust, and create better social net- 13,000 of them are staffed, reflecting ongoing example centers on the challenges our coun- works so that no one is “bowling alone.” nursing shortages. The state also has about try has faced in distributing seasonal flu vac- 5,000 icu beds. In addition, hospital and cine. Last year, during the 2004–2005 season, On the local level, hospitals and medical public-health of½cials are working diligently an England-based Chiron facility shut down professionals are wrestling with the issue of to identify level-two and level-three surge- and ceased flu-vaccine production. As a result, how to de½ne appropriate standards of care capacity beds. About 4,400 level-two beds Sano½ Pasteur was left as the sole producer in a crisis. In our society, we expect unlimited could be freed up if hospitals canceled elec- of the national flu vaccine–about 61 million medical resources to be made available for tive surgery and other procedures. Creating doses that year. This overall shortage forced our loved ones in a time of need. In a time of level-three beds would require clearing out the Centers for Disease Control and Preven- mass casualties, however, society may need hospital cafeterias, chapels, and other spaces tion (cdc) to promulgate priority groups of to employ the public-health ethic of the to allow for patient care. In addition, state those who should be vaccinated ahead of the greatest good for the greatest number. What’s and city of½cials need to identify appropriate general population. Those prioritized includ- an acceptable standard of care in such an community spaces for care, if needed. This ed people over 65 years of age, young children instance? aged 6–23 months, and people with chronic occurred in New Orleans during Hurricane Meanwhile, hospitals are not the only insti- health conditions. Katrina when the Superdome and the Astro- tutions that need to plan ahead. Businesses dome were employed. In the aftermath of that flu season, Cait Des- should have continuity-of-operations plans, beginning with the assumption that up to Mobilizing staff poses yet another challenge. Roches and Robert Blendon from the Harvard 40 percent of their workers may be out sick. Our state has 29,000 physicians and about School of Public Health polled over 1,200 Schools and religious organizations also 75,000 registered nurses. But an emergency adults in the United States and asked, “Were need to plan as well. such as pandemic influenza would require you con½dent in the fair distribution of the many more doctors, nurses, and allied health 2004 flu vaccine?” About 60 percent of re- professionals. Our country is just beginning spondents replied, “Yes, we are somewhat How does our society build to address how health volunteers can be (or very) con½dent.” But about 40 percent readily recruited, mobilized, trained, and said, “No, we’re not very con½dent (or not surge capacity for a pos- deployed in a time of pressing need. The con½dent at all) in this triage process.” In a Harvard School of Public Health (hsph) similar survey, recently published in Health sible pandemic tomorrow Center for Public Health Preparedness, like Affairs by Professor Blendon and his col- many organizations around the country, is leagues, people in four countries were asked, when there are so many helping to enlist health volunteers in the “Do you trust government public-health pressing medical needs Medical Reserve Corps, a national effort authorities as a source of useful and accurate sponsored by the U.S. Surgeon General. In information about an outbreak?” In Taiwan, today? collaboration with the Boston Public Health Hong Kong, and Singapore, over 50 percent of the people responded af½rmatively (“Yes, Commission, we are actively encouraging Planning can be enhanced by working at the we trust government public-health author- available health professionals to volunteer regional level. This can be challenging in ities a lot”) while in the United States only and receive online training in preparation for states such as Massachusetts, where there 40 percent responded similarly. a disaster. In addition, all countries are mo- are 351 cities and towns but no county or re- bilizing supplies such as antiviral agents. All So in the event of a pandemic, when govern- gional form of public-health structure. With these efforts are integral to increasing surge ment public-health authorities propose pri- the recent infusion of federal preparedness- capacity to protect people in a time of need. ority groups for vaccine prophylaxis or social- related funds, many states have emphasized Third, we must improve risk communication distancing measures, will the American public the public-health opportunity offered by to rebuild public trust. As the Massachusetts comply? During sars, of½cials in Toronto regional planning. For example, ½re depart- Commissioner of Public Health during the quarantined 23,000 people, all but 27 volun- ments have long bene½ted from mutual-aid anthrax crisis of 2001, I was charged with tarily. To assure such levels of public cooper- agreements. In the event of a major ½re in delivering risk communication through ation in the event of a crisis, of½cials need to one town, colleagues from neighboring daily press conferences with the Governor, be afforded the highest levels of trust. This cities and towns in the region can join in to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, theme is particularly important at the local help. For public-health of½cials in cities and

34 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 towns, such agreements are still in a state of emphasized drills and exercises as a highly be contacting you? Does your family have evolution. Regional planning can offer an effective means of role-based training. In an emergency plan? Do you have backup ef½cient way for adjoining hospitals, emer- such simulations, gathered leaders from food and medical supplies for your family? gency-medical services, and public-safety local government, the community, schools, Such burning questions haunted us during and indeed all sectors of society are asked to Hurricane Katrina and will undoubtedly arise We must improve risk respond to an unfolding set of pandemic again in any emergency. scenarios. Many concrete issues immediate- communication to rebuild ly arise. If an outbreak occurred at a univer- Finally, preparedness represents an oppor- sity, for example, what would be the appro- tunity to reinvest in a rejuvenated public- public trust. priate trigger to administer prophylaxis, in- health system. The media has focused much stitute social-distancing measures (if pos- attention on the need for better vaccines and organizations to build a common web of sible), cancel classes, or send students home? an antiviral supply. In addition to more shots protection. Each community and region And what would be the most effective and and pills, however, we also need a compre- must know how to report cases to state and appropriate risk communication messages hensive system that works ef½ciently and federal authorities; administer prophylaxis to students, faculty, and families? This hands- effectively to protect all people. Public health or vaccines on a community-wide basis; on method of teaching people highlights the protects every life and, indeed, every day of obtain more personal protective equipment importance of uni½ed command and under- every life. Public health adds years to all of for community members; and effectively standing roles and responsibilities–all in a our lives and quality of life to all of our years. communicate information in a timely and safe environment. If we maximize this crucial opportunity to transparent manner that builds trust. promote public health–what it is, why it’s In these exercises, we pose some very basic important–then we will all enjoy the Preparedness is not simply a theoretical questions to assess readiness, such as: Does promise of a healthier future. issue but rather an area of concrete imple- your business have an emergency plan of mentation and practice. As part of our operation? Who would be in charge? Do © 2006 by Joseph Boyd Martin, Barry R. educational mission, therefore, the HSPH you know your role within an emergency Bloom, and Howard Koh, respectively. Center for Public Health Preparedness has plan? Whom will you contact or who should

Barry R. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health), Howard Koh (Harvard School of Public Health), and Joseph Boyd Martin (Harvard Medical School)

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 35 . ilm © Lucas½lm Ltd. & TM. All Rights Reserved. Digital work by Innovation: The Creative Blending of Art and Science Featured Speaker: George Lucas; Remarks: Rob Coleman; Discussant: John Hennessy Introduction: Warren Hellman

This presentation was given at the 1900th Stated Meeting, held at the Letterman Digital Arts Center in the Presidio of San Francisco on March 18, 2006.

George Lucas is Chairman of Lucas½lm, Ltd. He I know that we all arrived at the same en- nies, and the visionary leadership that has been a Fellow of the American Academy since trance and got to experience a tiny taste of George has exhibited his entire career, I 2000. the wonderful design, one-of-a-kind arti- know we can count on achieving that goal. facts, and lovely architecture of this place. On behalf of the Academy, I want to say how Rob Coleman is Animation Director of Lucas½lm But what we’ve seen barely scratches the pleased we are to be here tonight and have Animation. surface of what’s here at this campus. For George Lucas as our featured speaker. As we those of us who live in San Francisco, we Warren Hellman is Cofounder and Chairman of celebrate our 225th anniversary, no one remember well that the Digital Arts Center Hellman & Friedman LLC. He has been a Fellow could better exemplify the American Acad- sits on 23 acres of a national park: the Pre- of the American Academy since 2005. emy’s ideals. Elected in 2000 to the Acad- sidio of San Francisco. An asphalt parking emy, George has pushed the known bound- John Hennessy is President of Stanford University. lot and a closed and crumbling Army hos- aries of science and technology. He started He has been a Fellow of the American Academy pital used to sit on this site. Now it consists the digital revolution in the late seventies, since 1995. of 17 acres of park space open to the public and continues to lead the charge today. He 365 days a year, a café overlooking the Palace is one of cinema’s most influential and suc- of Fine Arts, and 5 acres of some of the most cessful directors and producers. His ½lms, Warren Hellman sophisticated, technologically advanced including American Graf½ti, Willow, the buildings for the employees of Lucas½lm, Indiana Jones series, and the Star Warssaga, Industrial Light & Magic, and LucasArts. As a recently elected Fellow, I recognize have delighted audiences for years. that while the Academy draws inspiration It has already become a landmark. from the past, it is always focused on the But it’s not just a pretty place. One of George’s As one of the directors of Twentieth Cen- future. The place where we are meeting primary goals in the building of this campus tury Fox, the company that produced the tonight, like the city that surrounds us, was to put a stake in the ground for the fu- ½rst Star Wars, I witnessed the beginning of certainly inspires thinking about the future. ture of the digital arts and to foster the next Star Wars. I recall the screening Fox held for On behalf of everyone at the Academy, we generation of creative minds. With the state- the directors. There were eleven of us, and are honored to be here tonight. Thank you, of-the-art technology that drives this place, we were each handed a ballot. At the time, George, for opening your new home to us. the thirty-year legacy of the Lucas compa- Twentieth Century Fox was in dire ½nancial

36 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 straits. The ballot had three boxes: 1) “This People say, “Oh, you work in the high-tech which are obviously extremely important. will be a breakout ½lm”; 2) “We may get our end of movies, and movies are so technical.” But those really are the “hows”; the human- money back”; and 3) “We’re going to lose all But art has always been technical. One char- ities show us the “whys.” It’s one thing to our money.” The ½lm obviously turned the acteristic of human beings is to be able to build a bomb; it’s another thing to know studio around. It and its successors were the when to use it and why. Of course, the “whys” most pro½table movies ever made in the his- have a tendency to get pushed aside. For tory of Hollywood. Art is one way of commu- those of us in the humanities, we would like to see the humanities catch up with science Recently, the President presented George nicating emotions . . . ; it and technology so that we can have a better with a National Medal of Technology for sense of why we’re learning how. thirty years of groundbreaking work at conveys beauty, which ap- Industrial Light & Magic. ilm has pio- With that, let me introduce one of our key neered the dazzling visual effects that have pears in nature and which animators, the man behind Yoda. become the signature of such ½lmmakers science is still trying to ½g- Everybody talks about the art of acting, and as Steven Spielberg, James Cameron, and whether or not digital technology will ever Robert Zemeckis. ure out. replace the actor. That’s not going to happen. George is also deeply committed to educa- With a character like Yoda, you have an ex- tion. The George Lucas Educational Foun- transform and to use devices according to tremely talented actor in Frank Oz, who does dation focuses on school-community part- our will; one of the ½rst events that sepa- the voice and acts in front of a video camera. nerships, project-based learning, technolo- rated us from apes, I think, was when man But then you also have another group of art- gy, and intertechnology integration. It also picked up a piece of charcoal and started ists–the animators–who take that acting provides through its website a multimedia drawing on a wall. This technology, drawing and make it into an actual character. Anima- resource center for educators. on a wall, was followed by the technology of tion is a whole art, a ½eld that is half acting, drawing in color–½guring out how to get half art. So, in a way, a digital character takes The format for tonight’s program will in- colors and where to put them. And the ½ve or six people, instead of just one, to make clude remarks by George, during which he struggle to improve art-making technology –which means it costs ½ve to six times more will invite one of the key collaborators at has continued since. to make a digital character than to hire the Lucas½lm to join him for some demonstra- Brad Pitts of the world. So I don’t think Every time we have had a technological de- tions. After that, President John Hennessy of digital characters are ever going to replace velopment in the arts, we have been able to Stanford, himself a distinguished innovator human beings because human beings are express ourselves with more freedom. Con- in computer technology, will join in a con- unique; they’re crazy, and it’s going to be a sider, for example, in music, the discovery versation with George. long time before computers get crazy in that and development of instruments; or, in interesting, rather than frustrating, way. theater, the development of the proscenium Now, here is my good friend and the head of George Lucas (one of the biggest problems Shakespeare our animation department, Rob Coleman, had was getting people on and off stages). to explain animation a bit. Likewise, the technologies of writing and t’s a pleasure to host this West Coast meet- I the printing press allowed a writer to gain a ing of the American Academy. larger audience and to move the art of Rob Coleman I’m going to begin with a few remarks on writing forward. art, because there always seems to be this dichotomy between science and the arts. I Every time we have had a I remember looking at some early footage don’t really see that dichotomy because I of George talking about the decision to have work in both ½elds. From my point of view, technological development Yoda as a character in the movie. I’m para- technology and art have always gone hand- phrasing here, but I recall him saying: “If in-hand. in the arts, we have been he’d looked like a silly Muppet, then the whole experience would have been a disas- Art, at least in my de½nition, is one way of able to express ourselves ter.” Of course, it wasn’t a disaster. We all communicating emotions, things we can’t fell in love with this wise old sage, and we directly communicate in other ways, wheth- with more freedom. completely believed his interaction with er through mathematics, an essay, a technical Skywalker. drawing, or a blueprint. Art conveys beauty, So, to me, art and science are very closely which appears in nature and which science linked. Science gives us the “how,” and art I’ve had the opportunity and the honor to is still trying to ½gure out. No other animal gives us the “why.” At the last Academy work with George since 1993. In 1995 George has, at least consciously, our ability to create meeting I attended in Boston, the discussion came to Industrial Light & Magic and said beauty, to stir the same emotion in a human was, is there hope for the humanities. I be- we were ready to open up the Star Wars tril- being that a rose might inspire. lieve there is. I’ve been very involved in edu- ogies again. It’s been a privilege to be able to cation, and one of the main parts of the edu- take characters as important as Yoda and cational program today is math and science, bring them into the digital age. I knew from

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 37 the beginning how special this character As an attempt to help a key animator work This may come as a surprise: Christopher was, and I didn’t want to be known as the out a scene in the movie, I once hung off the Lee can’t actually jump off a ledge. Initially, guy who wrecked Yoda. So I studied frame- stairwell at ilm. By looking at the strain in we wanted Count Dooku to levitate and come by-frame the footage George had done with my own face–and I was hanging about a over. But George said, “No. He doesn’t fly. his earlier collaborators, trying to distill the foot off the ground–we were able to make He’s got to jump.” So I went back and had essence of Yoda. Who was he? How could I Yoda’s action more subtle than it was when the animator draw the character jumping. breathe a little bit of my humanity into this we started animating. And George said, “Come on! It’s got to be new digital character? more active than that!” So we tried some- A character will go through various stages, thing else. He said, “No, no. You don’t un- getting rough lighting and cloth on it, until derstand. He’s got to flip. He’s got to jump.” It’s been a privilege to be we achieve the ½nal image. George works up So I showed him another variation, and this at Skywalker Ranch with the layout team, time he said, “That’s good.” able to take characters as which roughly places the character in the scene. We’re not looking at or judging per- George and I were sitting in a room with important as Yoda and formance at this place, just composition and about ten other people as we reviewed the timing. My crew then gets involved and animation. George was happy. But when I bring them into the digital starts adding in the performance, the acting. left the room, the clothing specialist imme- This is what we call cari (the ilm facial diately grabbed me and said: “No, no! You age. animation software) render. The color is don’t understand! We’ve been doing tests! only there to help us see the movement of There’s no way we can do that shot! Look! I want to take you through some of the tech- the skin; in no way do we deem it realistic. This is all we’re getting!” niques we used in those early days to illus- Not until the technical directors and com- Although our work is an art and a science, trate how we’ve stood on the shoulders of positors get involved do we start to see a there’s also some magic involved. After a the people who came before us, and how we realistic image, one that will make the audi- little bit of time–and we never fully tell use computer technology to serve the story ences say, “Yes, that’s alive. That’s real.” George how long we’re at the computers late and our ½lmmaker. In certain sequences in the movie, some of at night–we were able to work it out and to I’ll start with Yoda. Behind Yoda–and our actors–like Samuel L. Jackson–need to show him the “red” version–revealing how George alluded to this–are character design- be digital doubles. ilm has been pioneering our digital cloth is interacting–and then the ers; sculptors; painters; computer modelers; a technique to generate models that use ten ½nal image. specialists who put the bones into the char- digital cameras, which are slaved to the exact acters; animators; clothing specialists (of same nanosecond and surround a live person. I can recall other times when we didn’t think course, all the clothing is digital); lighting we were going to need a digital character technical directors, who make sure the light We have to do this because some of our key until we got into the editing room and George looks real; compositors who blend the digi- actors–Ian McDiarmid, for example–are started cutting the sequence together. When tal character into the live action; and visual- not swordsmen, which may or may not sur- he came to a point where he wanted a high- effects supervisors, who collaborate with prise you. We actually do a shot with a stunt- angle shot looking down at two Jedi with George on a daily basis. man made up to look as much like Ian as their swords locked, he found that he didn’t possible. We don’t really worry about the actually have that footage. So he came to me, We’ve been working on creating an animat- facial structure, of course, because we have and we talked about whether my department ed character for a long time. The biggest chal- Ian and Ian plays a double role. We use laser could handle creating digital characters. I lenge, of course, is blending our character technology that scans the entire head and said, yes, of course we could. Because we are into the scenes with live actors. Our audi- compiles a volume of images inside the ences judge the realism of a ½lm on a moment- computer, which our digital modelers use to by-moment basis. They know what cloth create a digital version of Ian McDiarmid. The biggest challenge, of looks like when you tumble on the ground. Our painters and match-movers then get in- So, because this is completely fabricated in- course, is blending our volved. The ½rst thing they do is track where side the computer, a lot of very talented peo- the head was. The blue lines tell us whether ple must ½gure out how to make fabric look character into the scenes our virtual camera–our computer camera– real, how to incorporate the subtlety of the is locked into the real camera that Lucas used motion of our little hero sliding on the with live actors. on the day we shot. Our painters then get rid ground. of our poor stuntman’s head, painting it going to undercut the digital characters with For my team, it starts with video reference. frame-by-frame. My crew gets involved at the real actors, we have to match our cloth The idea here is to key in on what is subtle the same time, animating a performance by to the costumes the real actors are wearing– and what is realistic movement. So we study using the stuntman’s actual expressions as a so the clothing team gets involved. In the ourselves a lot. All of the animators have guide. We move the digital face so that it is end, we have an image that’s cut into the mirrors at their desks; we videotape our- emoting. Finally, the compositors get in- sequence, and the audience can’t tell those selves; and we study our images. volved and blend them together. aren’t real people.

38 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 We can also use digital technology with real As well as studying humans, we also observe The person who could create the best colors, characters, not just with digital characters. the animal world. In the latest movie, we who had that technology, could do the most In this example, we only had ½ve Wookiees– have this running, galloping lizard, which I beautiful work–in theory. Chewbacca is a Wookiee. We take an old was very worried about initially. But a couple idea: put the ½ve Wookiees in front of the of friends in the art department said, “We Film is the most technological of all our art camera, shoot some footage, then move were watching the Discovery Channel, and forms. In contrast, with literature, a writer there’s this crocodile that runs! You’ve got can bring about a psychological experience to see this!” I had no idea crocodiles ran. But using just words. After reading the words, a A character will go through as an animator, I was fascinated by the foot- reader translates them into mental images. various stages, getting age and studied it carefully. Eventually, we In movies, it’s tougher because we actually used it as the starting point to envision how have to make viewers believe for a brief our lizard was going to run and jump. second–twenty-four frames–that what rough lighting and cloth they are watching is real. We have to physi- I’m giving you all my secrets, ones that I cally make something. We can’t just write on it, until we achieve the haven’t even shared with George before. the words down as we do in a script and say, “This is it.” ½nal image. The last tool that I’ll tell you about tonight is motion capture, which I referred to earlier. Having gone to ½lm school, studied ½lm, them and give them different weapons. Shoot First, you put an actor in a special suit in a and learned how all the various pieces of them again and again, until you have a num- special room. Cameras surround the room; ½lm go together, I knew the story I wrote ber of passes that can then be combined in the suit itself has markers on it. The cameras could only go so far in conveying what I was the compositing. We knew that we could can triangulate where an elbow or a knee is. imagining when I started Star Wars. I knew I only do so many passes, and we also knew We then take that real movement–in this was playing with ½re because science ½ction that George wanted lots of characters. So case, a retired Navy Seal–and apply it to the and fantasy are basically literary genres. we started to create digital Wookiees and character to get realistic motion. Prior to They aren’t really cinematic because it’s placed them in the background. Episode III, a bunch of overweight anima- impossible to recreate in real life what we tors and I were running around being clones, can imagine. That’s the whole magic of it. Meanwhile, my friends on the visual-effects and George pointed out–rather correctly– That’s why science ½ction and fantasy are side created a miniature beach and a mini- that the clones were not quite as aggressive such wonderful literary mediums: we can go ature wall, both of which are matched to the as he’d originally planned. I took that to to places we can’t go to in reality. But in ½lm, real camera. The people responsible for ½g- heart and now we have our Navy Seal taking we’re stuck. uring out how digital fur works then applied out our crowd of droids–a marked improve- “motion capture”–in which the cameras ment over Episode II. capture an actor in motion–to a digital Film is the most technolog- character. The result is some digital jumping I hope this has been an entertaining perspec- jacks checking digital fur. Then we create a tive on our world. ical of all our art forms. In chorus line in which we change the mapping or the color of the fur to create one model, contrast, with literature, a or a lot of different Wookiees that are then Conversation with John blended together. The result is two rows of Hennessy and George Lucas writer can bring about a real Wookiees combined with digital psychological experience Wookiees running out to battle. John Hennessy: George, you said earlier One of the joys of being in the animation that you don’t see a separation between the using just words. In movies, group was creating the new villain for the technology and the creative storytelling. But, it’s tougher because we ac- latest movie: General Grievous. Grievous certainly, when you imagine something, and was fully animated, and like all the other I am thinking back to those early Star War tually have to make view- characters I’ve been showing, he had digital movies, whether it was the light saber or cloth. When trying to create a character, I that memorable image from the very begin- ers believe for a brief sec- always like to start with some kind of touch- ning of Star Wars, how do you contemplate stone. In the early days of developing Griev- what might be possible with the special ef- ond–twenty-four frames– ous from the animation side, we were actu- fects when they become such a key part of ally inspired by Willem Dafoe’s portrayal of the storytelling? What comes ½rst here? that what they are watch- Nosferatu. For a period of time, Grievous was going to be more vampire-like; he end- George Lucas: It’s always the story that ing is real. ed up sort of sickly and with a cough. I really comes ½rst, but the technology also deter- liked Dafoe’s performance, so I actually had mines the story. It has always been that way Also, when I wrote those scripts, I didn’t one of the animators do an early test using it with art, especially in the more physical art have much money. For all artists, available to get all those high-frequency actions that of painting, where the idea of developing resources are an issue, whether you’re later became part of Grievous’s library. color was a major part of art for a long time. Michelangelo or you’re working in a cave.

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 39 The amount of resources limits your imagi- do you make a two-foot green guy believable? in the second, it was creating a realistic green nation. With ½lm, I knew how I could do I could barely make him move because he’s Muppet. everything. I wasn’t pushing the envelope obviously a man’s hand. So the whole thing too far. But even though I basically had was shot in close-up. We did one shot of a Hennessy: Jabba the Hutt? Episodes I, II, and IIIin mind (they were midget in a Yoda suit with trick photography Lucas:Yes, Jabba the Hutt was a lot easier in written ½rst, as the back story), I knew I to make him look small. a way because he kind of just rolled around. By that time, the technology that we had de- Those technological ceilings determined veloped for Yoda could be used for other In motion pictures, we how much I could imagine. I was extremely people. For Yoda, I had Jim Henson, the frustrated as an artist because I had this idea most brilliant puppeteer ever, and Frank Oz, have to ½gure out the tech- of a much bigger world and many more fun who worked very closely with him. We all things, but I was very, very limited. This worked together with Stuart Freeborn and a nology in order to let our happens with a lot of art unless you sit down whole lot of people to develop the technol- and say, “I’m going to ½gure out a different ogy to make Yoda look real. Most of the real- imagination roam freely. way of doing this.” Think about Leonardo ism–to be very honest with you–in the ½rst da Vinci trying to cast the largest bronze The greatest thing about three movies is Frank Oz. Puppeteering is an horse ever created. Even artists back then art form; it’s acting to make a little sock on had to solve technological puzzles such as digital technology is that it your hand look like a real character and how to set a ½ve-ton globe on top of a chapel. really does enable cinemat- Frank is brilliant at it. Now, Frank bows to And we’re still in that business. In motion Rob, which embarrasses Rob. Frank says, ic artists, those who work pictures, we have to ½gure out the technol- “Gosh, I don’t have to sit there with my arm ogy in order to let our imagination roam up; it doesn’t hurt anymore. And I look in the moving image, to freely. The greatest thing about digital tech- better than ever!” nology is that it really does enable cinematic imagine anything they artists, those who work in the moving image, No matter what movie we’re working on– to imagine anything they want. Before Star especially in terms of special effects–we’re want. Wars, resources in the movie business were pushing the envelope. We’re doing things dwindling because of television; and, of that have never been done before, and peo- couldn’t ½lm them. I couldn’t actually go to course, people were getting paid more, so we ple depend on us to make it seem real. If we the city-planet Courasant. The number of couldn’t have thousands of extras in epic failed, we would eventually go out of bus- aliens that all those worlds required made it movies. The ½lms of the 1950s and 1960s iness. But I don’t think we’ve ever really impossible to ½lm back then. were mostly street ½lms and psychological failed. We may have had a few shots here thrillers–very small in scope–with a few So I started with an episode that was very Westerns thrown in here and there. Film- con½ned: it takes place on a desert planet, a No matter what movie makers couldn’t think of doing another Death Star. I had to cope with only one tech- Cleopatra because, basically, the epic genre we’re working on– especi- nology: panning with spaceships. It seems was dying. But once digital technology came like a very simple thing to do. Stanley Kubrick around, suddenly epics were available. We ally in terms of special ef- did the most monumental and technically could do Gladiator. We could make giant most advanced science-½ction ½lm with 2001, World War II movies. We could do almost fects–we’re pushing the but his camera had to stay static because of anything we dreamed. the matte paintings, and he had to make envelope. We’re doing many passes because his cameras had to Hennessy:I’m dying to ask whether your match up perfectly. So the shots were all imagination has ever outstripped the tech- things that have never very slow. They’re very realistic, and they nology. What would you have done if Yoda been done before, and show how boring space really is. hadn’t looked real, or the Death Star hadn’t I wanted to show how exciting space could looked like the really terrifying thing it was? people depend on us to be, but this world isn’t real–it’s imaginary. Lucas: This place wouldn’t be here. I wouldn’t I wanted to be able to move the camera, do be here. make it seem real. short shots with ships flying around, and shoot dog½ghts–things that we just couldn’t Hennessy:But did you ever encounter a cir- and there that aren’t quite as good as they do then. So I set my sights on solving that cumstance where you had to rewrite the story should be, but we’ve always managed to technological problem and found the so- to live within the domain of the technology? keep the illusion going. That success owes lution by combining computers with cam- as much to engineering and science as to the Lucas: The ½rst three Star Wars were written eras. Ultimately, it involved taking an ani- creative arts of painting, sculpture, etc. Cre- within the domain of the technology. I would mation camera, turning it, and, instead of ating an illusion and telling a story really re- take a chance with one technological leap. In shooting pictures, shooting models. In the quires collaboration between artists and sci- the ½rst one, it was panning with spaceships; second ½lm, I had another challenge: how entists.

40 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Hennessy: Rob mentioned motion capture. as well as Phil Tippett, the world’s premier In addition to making it unbelievably beau- I found that interesting because when you stop-motion animator, who also works for tiful, da Vinci had to deal with all this tech- use motion capture, you’re basically imi- us. Stop-motion animation is a very esoteric nology. He had to build scaffolding, and tating human motion; otherwise, it’s hard art form, and they were just going to do the someone had to bring the stuff up and make to make it look natural without a lot of work. dinosaurs in stop motion, as usual. But sure it didn’t dry. What is it that makes motion capture such a Dennis said, “You know, I think maybe we useful technology? can do these digitally now.” And so we got Filmmaking used to be like that. Because we together, and Steve said, “Well, I’ll look at used a lot of people, we couldn’t change any- Lucas: Let’s face it: artists aren’t a dime a something if you do it.” I said, “We’ll ½nance thing once we did it. But with digital, it’s al- dozen. Nowadays, we need a lot of anima- it on our own to see if we can accomplish most as if we invented oil painting. Sudden- tors, and a really brilliant animator, given this.” When that ½rst test came up in the ly, if we don’t like what we’ve painted, we enough time and money, could create a per- screening room, people were crying, espe- can paint over it, get the light just right, etc. fect movement by drawing every little cially Phil Tippett. It was a milestone. I And I can catch it while I’m making it. Digi- movement, as animators did with Bugs shoot my ½lms digitally, manipulate them tal gives us the same freedom that oil paint- Bunny and Daffy Duck. Of course, they digitally, and show them digitally. That is ing gave artists, especially in the Impression- were drawn in such a way that the animators the big technological change–the sound of ist movement, to go outside and see the way didn’t have to deal with detail. our era. It happened quite a while ago. Com- light played on things. They could stand there and watch it while they were painting. But when we start animating human mo- puters were created a while ago too, but the Before, they were trapped in a chapel or art tion, it requires an entirely different level of ½lm industry hasn’t caught up yet; we’re the studio somewhere. Digital helps the artist animator. Motion capture enables us to do a only ones who are using this technology. by allowing him to change his mind, manip- lot of the hard work of capturing the detail ulate his images, and do things so that they’re that an animator may or may not remember. Digital helps the artist by not ½xed. There’s no longer a giant crew sit- Polar Express was done with motion capture, ting there, waiting, at the expense of some which sped things along. With motion cap- allowing him to change ungodly amount of money; the Pope com- ture, the animator can focus on the acting, ing in every ½ve seconds saying, “Get it the emotion, rather than the details like his mind, manipulate his done, Guido. We’ve got a release date. The what the hair is doing back there or how the studio’s going to go bankrupt!”; the board ear is moving. images, and do things so saying, “When are you guys going to get this Hennessy: What do you see on the horizon that they’re not ½xed. thing done?”; and the artist saying, “Well, in terms of technology that might take movie my God! I’m going as fast as I can! I’m doing making and storytelling to the next step? We’ve been making digital ½lms in San this, but it’s hard! I don’t have the tools, really, to make this work.” Lucas: I think we’ve made that leap. We Francisco for ten years; they still don’t make made it when we developed digital technol- them in Los Angeles. One of the reasons I That’s the wonder of technology, because, ogy, which was accomplished over a long wanted this digital center was to say, “Hey, in a lot of cases, an artist’s creativity is self- period. The real breakthrough was Jurassic this is where everything started. This is where limiting. If it’s absolutely impossible, the Park, where we took a completely animated this whole art form began.” It is a step up artist doesn’t even attempt it because why character and made it look completely real. from the photochemical process. Those are would you? But the more possibilities tech- The best example now is the old King Kong, our roots, but we’re in another era now. nology breaks open, the more we can think, “Oh, we could do this, and we could do where we know King Kong is a little puppet Hennessy: We hear a lot of talk about how that.” We start imagining bigger pictures. moving around–that was the ½rst time that technology and the creative arts cannot fuse, kind of art was done–to the new King Kong , yet you can’t make your movies unless you Hennessy: When you think about your which is just amazing to watch. It’s hard to can fuse the two and unless you can build ½lms, how do you think about this whole believe that’s a computer character. That working teams with people who come from issue of timelessness? If you look at the level of detail, emotion, and sensitivity in a very different backgrounds and think very Sistine Chapel, or at Michelangelo’s David, basically unreal character has pushed up the differently. Do you ½nd that’s a challenge? or at Brunelleschi’s Dome in Florence, they level of ½lmmaking very far. Or does the story inspire everybody? have a sort of timelessness to them. You see Hennessy: I grew up in New York, and, as a Lucas: Working with people to move an ar- them even today, hundreds of years later, kid, I remember going to the Museum of tistic vision forward has always been a chal- and you recognize they are aesthetically just National History and seeing the dinosaurs in lenge. Leonardo da Vinci is the perfect ex- incredible. How do you think about that in those fake poses, never moving. I’ll never ample of a scientist/artist who had to work ½lm, where the media is constantly chang- forget that opening scene in Jurassic Park with a lot of people. Painting a fresco was ing and improving? when we see a dinosaur actually move. hard work. You had various people involved: Lucas:Ultimately, all art is a product of its “Here is the guy who does blue; it’s the best Lucas: This is how it came about. Dennis time. Most art up to the modern day was il- blue in all of Italy. Here’s the guy who does Muren, our special-effects guru, has been lustrative. You were hired by somebody to green, and here’s the guy who does the plas- with me since the beginning of the com- tell a story, to bring out the emotion, even if ter. I have to do this one piece before it dries, pany. Steve Spielberg was doing this movie, it was simply a portrait like the photographs and then we have to match it and move on.”

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 41 we have now. Every time I look at a photo- it as from that time. It’s the same with ½lm. the Greeks, we’re now able to study John graph of my kids, I say, “Aww.” The same You can look at a ½lm now and say, “Oh, that Ford and the great directors of the thirties idea applied back then. If I wanted a portrait was done in the thirties. That was done in and forties. of my wife, I would hire you to paint her por- the Golden Age.” trait. Or the Church, the largest corporation of the day, would hire you, saying, “We want The age we’re now in is postmodern. I was © 2006 by Warren Hellman, George Lucas, to experience God.” shocked when I heard that. But I guess we Rob Coleman, and John Hennessy, are the ½rst age of cinema to actually have respectively. Anybody who knows a lot about art can look studied cinema. Before, ½lmmakers studied at a painting from that period and recognize literature. But just as Michelangelo studied

John Hennessy (Stanford University) and George Lucas (Lucasfilm Ltd.) Warren Hellman (Hellman & Friedman LLC) and George Lucas

Rob Coleman (Lucasfilm Animation)

42 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Walter B. Hewlett (William and Flora Hewlett Foundation) and Leslie Robert Birgeneau (University of California, Berkeley) and Randy Berlowitz Schekman (University of California, Berkeley)

Louis Cabot (Cabot-Wellington, LLC), Peter Bing (Los Angeles, CA), and Jesse Choper (University of California, Berkeley)

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 43 Noteworthy

Select Prizes and Awards Award in Chemistry, given by Frances Daly Fergusson (Vassar Other Stories. Nan Talese, Sep- the Welch Foundation. College) has been appointed to tember 2006 the Board of Directors of Mattel. Seymour Benzer (California Benoit Mandelbrot (Yale Univer- Ward Just (Martha’s Vineyard, Institute of Technology) was sity) has been promoted to the Alice P. Gast (mit) has been Massachusetts). Forgetfulness. awarded the Albany Medical rank of Of½cer of the Légion appointed President of Lehigh Houghton Mifflin, September Center Prize in Medicine and d’Honneur. University. 2006 Biomedical Research. Claire Max (University of Cali- James D. Meindl (Georgia In- Richard Powers (University of E. L. Doctorow (New York Uni- fornia, Santa Cruz) is the recip- stitute of Technology) has been Illinois, Urbana-Champaign). versity) was awarded the 2006 ient of the 2006 Chabot Science named Director of Georgia In- The Echo Maker.Farrar, Straus Michael Shaara Prize for Excel- Award, given by the Chabot stitute of Technology’s Nano- & Giroux, October 2006 Space and Science Center. technology Research Center. lence in Civil War Fiction for Anna Quindlin (New York City). The March. James D. Meindl (Georgia Insti- Ira M. Millstein (Weil, Gotshal Rise and Shine. Random House, M. Judah Folkman (Harvard tute of Technology) was awarded & Manges, llp) has been named August 2006 the 2006 ieee Medal of Honor Director of the Yale Center for Medical School) was awarded John Updike (Boston, Massa- the Warren Alpert Foundation by the Institute of Electrical and Corporate Governance and Per- Electronics Engineers. formance. chusetts). Terrorist. Knopf, June Prize. 2006 Carol Gluck (Columbia Univer- John Meurig Thomas (University Jessie Ann Owens (Brandeis sity) was awarded The Order of of Cambridge) has been awarded University) has been named Non½ction the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with the Sir George Stokes Gold Med- Dean of Humanities, Arts and Neck Ribbon by the Japanese al of the Royal Society of Chem- Cultural Studies at the Univer- istry. sity of California, Davis. Kwame Anthony Appiah government. (Princeton University). Cosmo- Linda Greenhouse (New York Ellen S. Vitetta (University of politanism: Ethics in a World of Times) was awarded the 2006 Texas Southwestern Medical Select Publications Strangers. W. W. Norton, Jan- Radcliffe Institute Medal. Center) has been named to the uary 2006 Texas Women’s Hall of Fame. Michael Ashburner (University Don Harran (Hebrew University Poetry of Cambridge). Won for All: How of Jerusalem) has been made Marvalee Wake (University of the Drosophila Genome was Se- Knight of the Order of the Star California, Berkeley) is the re- Charles Bernstein (University of quenced. Cold Spring Press, of Italian Solidarity (Cavaliere cipient of the Past President’s Pennsylvania). Girly Man. Uni- April 2006 dell’Ordine della Stella della Award, given by the American versity of Chicago Press, Sep- Institute of Biological Sciences. Solidarietà Italiana). tember 2006 Roger S. Bagnall (Columbia Uni- Geoffrey Hartman (Yale Univer- George M. Whitesides (Harvard Donald Hall (Wilmot, New versity) and Raffaella Cribiore sity) received the 2006 Truman University) was awarded the Hampshire). White Apples and (Columbia University). Women’s Capote Award for Literary Criti- 2007 Priestley Medal by the the Taste of Stone: Selected Poems, Letters from Ancient Egypt, 300 bc cism for The Geoffrey Hartman American Chemical Society. 1946–2006. Houghton Mifflin, –ad 800. University of Michi- April 2006 gan Press, March 2006 Reader. Frederick Wiseman (Zipporah Alan Hastings (University of Films) was awarded the 2006 Geoffrey Hill (Boston Univer- Leonard Barkan (Princeton Uni- California, Davis) received the George Polk Career Award and sity). Without Title. Yale Univer- versity). Satyr Square: A Year, a 2006 Robert H. MacArthur the 2006 American Society of sity Press, November 2006; Se- Life in Rome. Farrar, Straus & Award from the Ecological Cinematographers Distinguished lected Poems. Yale University Giroux, October 2006 Achievement Award. Society of America. Press, November 2006 Robert N. Bellah (University of California, Berkeley) and Steven John G. Hildebrand (University Paul Muldoon (Princeton Uni- M. Tipton (Emory University). of Arizona) is the recipient of New Appointments versity). Horse Latitudes: Poems. The Robert Bellah Reader. Duke the Outstanding Service Award, Farrar, Straus & Giroux, Octo- University Press, October 2006 given by the American Institute ber 2006 of Biological Sciences. Mildred S. Dressselhaus (mit) David P. Billington (Princeton has joined the Scienti½c Advisory C. K. Williams (Princeton Uni- Thomas Kailath (Stanford Uni- versity). Collected Poems. Farrar, University) and David P. Billing- Board of Nextreme Thermal So- ton, Jr. (Santa Monica, Califor- versity) was awarded the Jack S. lutions. Straus & Giroux, November Kilby Signal Processing Medal 2006 nia). Power, Speed, and Form: by the Institute of Electrical and Larry R. Faulkner (University of Engineers and the Making of the Electronics Engineers. Texas at Austin) has been named Twentieth Century. Princeton Chairman of the National Math Fiction University Press, October 2006 Daniel E. Koshland, Jr. (Univer- Panel by the Bush administra- Lawrence D. Bobo (Stanford sity of California, Berkeley) is Margaret Atwood (Toronto, tion. University) and Mia Tuan (Uni- the recipient of the 2006 Welch Canada). Moral Disorder: and versity of Oregon). Prejudice in

54 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Politics: Group Position, Public Owen Gingerich (Harvard Uni- Benjamin Franklin. Yale Univer- on the Philosophy of Morality. Har- Opinion, and the Wisconsin Treaty versity). God’s Universe. Harvard sity Press, November 2006 vard University Press, May 2006 Rights Dispute. Harvard Univer- University Press, September sity Press, April 2006 2006 Linda Nochlin (New York Uni- E. O. Wilson (Harvard Univer- versity). Bathers, Bodies, Beauty: sity). The Creation: A Meeting of T. J. Clark (University of Califor- Kent Greenawalt (Columbia The Visceral Eye. Harvard Univer- Science and Religion. W. W. Nor- nia, Berkeley). The Sight ofDeath: University). Religion and the Con- sity Press, May 2006 ton, September 2006 An Experiment in Art Writing. Yale stitution: Volume I: Free Exercise University Press, August 2006 and Fairness. Princeton Univer- Sherry B. Ortner (University of William Julius Wilson (Harvard sity Press, August 2006 California, Los Angeles). Anthro- University) and Richard P. Taub Francis S. Collins (National Hu- pology and Social Theory: Culture, (University of Chicago). There man Genome Research Insti- James Oliver Horton (George Power, and the Acting Subject. Goes the Neighborhood: Racial, tute). The Language of God: A Washington University) and Duke University Press, Novem- Ethnic, and Class Tensions in Four Scientist Presents Evidence of Belief. Lois E. Horton (George Mason ber 2006 Chicago Neighborhoods and Their Free Press, July 2006 University), eds. Slavery and Meaning for America. Knopf, Oc- Public History: The Tough Stuff Richard A. Posner (U.S. Court tober 2006 James Cuno (Art Institute of of American Memory. New Press, of Appeals, Chicago). Uncertain Chicago). Notable Acquisitions at May 2006 Shield: The U.S. Intelligence System the Art Institute of Chicago. Yale in the Throes of Reform. Rowman Exhibitions University Press, June 2006 Michael Kammen (Cornell Uni- & Little½eld, April 2006; Not a versity). Visual Shock: A History Suicide Pact: The Constitution in a Robert A. Dahl (Yale Univer- of Art Controversies in American Time of National Emergency. Ox- Chuck Close (New York City): sity). On Political Equality. Yale Culture. Knopf, October 2006 ford University Press, August “Chuck Close Prints: Process University Press, August 2006 2006 and Collaboration” at the Or- Justin Kaplan (Cambridge, ange County Museum of Art, William Theodore de Bary (Co- Massachusetts), When the Astors Kenneth Prewitt (Columbia Uni- Newport Beach, California, lumbia University), ed. Living Owned New York: Blue Bloods and versity), D. Sunshine Hillygus January 21–April 22, 2007. Legacies at Columbia. Columbia Grand Hotels in a Gilded Age. Vik- (Harvard University), Norman University Press, June 2006 ing, June 2006 H. Nie (Stanford Institute for the Bruce Nauman (Galisteo, New Daniel C. Dennett (Tufts Uni- Quantitative Study of Society), Mexico): “Mental Exercises” at George Kateb (Princeton Uni- and Heili Pals (Stanford Univer- versity). Breaking the Spell: Reli- versity). Patriotism and Other nrw-Forum Kultur und Wirt- gion as a Natural Phenomenon. sity). The Hard Count: The Polit- schaft, Düsseldorf, Germany, Mistakes. Yale University Press, ical and Social Challenges of Census Viking, February 2006 November 2006 September 9, 2006–January 14, Mobilization. Russell Sage Foun- 2007. E. L. Doctorow (New York Uni- Thomas H. Kean (Robert Wood dation, May 2006 Frederick Wiseman (Zipporah versity). Creationists: Selected Johnson Foundation) and Lee H. Francine Prose (New York City). Films): upcoming ½lm retro- Essays, 1993–2006. Random Hamilton (Woodrow Wilson In- Reading Like a Writer: A Guide for spective at La Cinémathéque House, September 2006 ternational Center for Scholars). People Who Love Books and for Française and the Centre Without Precedent: The Inside Sto- Mary Douglas (University Col- Those Who Want to Write Them. Georges Pompidou, Paris, ry of the 9/11 Commission. Knopf, lege London). Thinking in Circles: HarperCollins, August 2006 France, October 28–Decem- August 2006 An Essay on Ring Composition. ber 31, 2006. Theda Skocpol (Harvard Univer- Yale University Press, January Nikki R. Keddie (University of 2007 sity), Ariane Liazos (Harvard California, Los Angeles). Women University), and Marshall Ganz Ronald Dworkin (New York in the Middle East: Past and Pres- (Harvard University). What a University). Is Democracy Possible ent. Princeton University Press, Mighty Power We Can Be: African Here? Principles for a New Political December 2006 American Fraternal Groups and the Debate. Princeton University Donald Keene (Columbia Uni- Struggle for Racial Equality. Prince- Press, September 2006 versity). Frog in the Well: Portraits ton University Press, September 2006 Gerald M. Edelman (Scripps Re- of Japan by Watanabe Kazan, 1793 search Institute). Second Nature: –1841. Columbia University Fritz Stern (Columbia Univer- Brain Science and Human Knowl- Press, July 2006 sity). Five Germanys I Have We invite all Fellows and edge. Yale University Press, Oc- Roderick MacFarquhar (Harvard Known. Farrar, Straus & Giroux, Foreign Honorary Members tober 2006 University) and Michael Schoen- August 2006 hals (Lund University). Mao’s to send notices about their Richard A. Epstein (University Immanuel Wallerstein (Yale recent and forthcoming pub- of Chicago). Overdose: How Ex- Last Revolution. Harvard Univer- University). European Univer- sity Press, August 2006 lications, scienti½c ½ndings, cessive Government Regulation salism: The Rhetoric of Power. exhibitions and performances, Stifles Pharmaceutical Innovation. Edmund S. Morgan (Yale Uni- The New Press, June 2006 and honors and prizes to Yale University Press, October versity),ed. Not Your Usual Found- [email protected]. 2006 David Wiggins (University of ing Father: Selected Readings from Oxford). Ethics: Twelve Lectures

Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 55 From the Archives

The early members of the Academy made meteorology one of their special concerns, along with agriculture and “the various soils of the Country. . . .” Henry L. Eustis, a professor of engineering at Harvard University and a Fellow of the Academy (elected in 1850), drew a “Plan exhibiting the Ravages of the Tornado of August 22d 1851, Embracing so much of its course as is included between the base of Wellington Hill in Waltham and Mystic River” to illustrate his article on the tornado (an excerpt is reprinted below). The pupils of the Engineering Department of the Lawrence Scienti½c School assisted Eustis in creating the map. Unfolding to over 14 feet, the map is mounted on linen and shows the path of the tornado in great detail (tree by tree); a portion of the map also appears below.

Meteorology is every day gaining a stronger foothold, and taking a higher rank among the sciences of modern times. It would be no great tax upon our powers of retrospection, to look back to the period when its deductions were regarded, by most persons, as the mere speculations of scienti½c enthusiasts, having no tests whereby their fallacy or accuracy could be demonstrated, and therefore possessing little practical value. . . . To those who have lived where the hurricane or the tornado is an event of common occurrence, it would be impossible to convey any idea of the intense excitement caused in this community by the tornado of August 22, 1851. It swept through the towns of Waltham, West Cambridge, and Medford, prostrating in its path orchards, fences, forest-trees, and buildings, and involving in a few instances the loss of human life. While multitudes visited the scene of its ravages from mere motives of curiosity, and stood appalled before the exhibition of such wondrous power, scienti½c men sought to explore its mode of action, and to ½nd there a corroboration or a refutation of their preconceived views. It was in obedience to the call of many of this latter class, that I undertook the survey whose results are embodied in the accompanying map.

Reprinted from the Memoirsof the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1888, volume 11, part 2.

56 Bulletin of the American Academy Summer 2006 Norton’s Woods, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma02138 telephone 617-576-5000, facsimile 617-576-5050, email [email protected], website www.amacad.org academy officers Patricia Meyer Spacks, President Leslie Cohen Berlowitz, Chief Executive Of½cer Louis W. Cabot, Vice President and Chair of the Academy Trust John S. Reed, Treasurer Jerrold Meinwald, Secretary Steven Marcus, Editor Geoffrey Stone, Vice President, Midwest Center Gordon N. Gill, Vice President, Western Center Robert C. Post, Librarian publications advisory board Jesse H. Choper, Denis Donoghue, Jerome Kagan, Steven Marcus, Jerrold Meinwald, Patricia Meyer Spacks editorial staff Alexandra Oleson, Editor Phyllis S. Bendell, Director of Publications Esther Yoo, Assistant Editor Peter B. Estes, Layout & Design Initial design by Joe Moore of Moore + Associates Bulletin Summer 2006 Issued as Volume lix, Number 4 © 2006 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences

The Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences (issn 0002–712x) is published quarterly by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. Periodicals rate postage paid at Boston, ma, and additional mailing of½ces. Postmaster: Send address changes to Bulletin, American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma02138.

The views expressed in the Bulletin are those held by each contribu- tor and are not necessarily those of the Of½cers and Fellows of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. photo credits Steve Rosenthal inside front cover Martha Stewart pages 1, 27, 35, 52–53

Wendy Barrows pages 10–11

Gail Oskin page 16

Mike Fox pages 42–43 erratum In an essay by Veerabhadran Ramanathan on “Global Warming,” published in the Spring 2006 issue of the Bulletin , it incorrectly stated that the world population increased by over 60 percent in the 1950s. It should have read “the world population increased by over 60 percent since the 1950s.”