The Evolution of Hybrid Warfare. Case Study – the Conflict in Ukraine
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Strategies XXI – ACNDC Bucharest, June 25, 2021 THE EVOLUTION OF HYBRID WARFARE. CASE STUDY – THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE. Colonel Constantin POPA101 Abstract: A brief foray into history shows us that hybrid warfare has been present since ancient times, through various forms of expression, in conflicts between states. Therefore, "hybrid warfare" is developing in multiple areas, being increasingly adopted at the level of some states that base their military doctrines or security strategies on methods and tools unconventional or unusual in the classical sense of war. So, hybrid warfare can be seen as a complex, integrated representation of classical warfare. But is such an approach a correct one? Keywords: hybrid warfare, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Crimean Peninsula, NATO. Hybrid warfare can be seen as a complex, integrated representation of classical warfare. But is such an approach, a correct one? The explanatory dictionary of the Romanian language provides, for the term “war” – “…(Lasting) armed conflict between two or more states, nations, human groups, for the realization of economic and political interests…”. The dictionary also includes the phrase "total war", which means "armed struggle in which the aggressor state uses all means of destruction, not only against the armed forces, but also against the entire population." It is noted that the definition of the word "war" is strictly related to the term "armed". For the term “hybrid” the explanation in the dictionary resides in “1. (About plants and animals) - Derived from the natural or artificial crossing, sexual or vegetative of two individuals of different species, varieties, races; 2. (About ideas, facts) Made up of inappropriate, disparate elements; without harmony”. The phrase "hybrid war" has not yet been enshrined in the explanatory dictionary. Moreover, the meaning in which that phrase is certainly not used can be obtained by formally considering the definitions of the terms in its composition. 1. THEORY&PRAXIS IN THE EVOLUTION OF HYBRID WARFARE 1.1. Short history A brief foray into history shows us that hybrid warfare has been present since ancient times, through various forms of expression, in conflicts between states. 101 Mr. Constantin Popa is engineer of tanks and wheeled vehicles, Senior Officer / Colonel in the Logistics Directorate of the Romanian Defense Staff (Head of the Logistics Support Service / Logistics Department). 95 Strategies XXI – ACNDC Bucharest, June 25, 2021 Thus, the use of elephants (3rd century BC) by Hannibal's army against the Roman army was an element of absolute novelty on the battlefield. The psychological effect of the presence of enormous pachyderms was the real blow against the Roman army, far superior to the military (elephants could be assimilated to today's armor, providing maximum protection, mobility and force of impact). The Carthaginian approach, by its unconventional nature, can be interpreted as a hybrid tool for waging war. Therefore, it can be appreciated that, since ancient times, actions and operations have been used / carried out with an unconventional, irregular nature or that were not usually part of the rules and customs of war. Later, in the Middle Ages, the actions of pirates in the service of Queen Elizabeth I of Great Britain, against Spanish ships, were, in fact, hybrid methods of waging war. In the same logic, of the use of unconventional tools for waging war, we can mention the collaborative actions of George Washington's army with local militias during the American War of Independence, from 1775 to 1783. Moreover, the contribution of local militias to the effort the war of the 13 colonies that declared independence from the British Crown was substantial, given that the regular U.S. military had only just been established and its operational capability was, for much of the War of Independence, at a high level. quite low. Another example of the hybrid component of a war is the collaboration of the British regular army with the Spanish army and Spanish guerrilla forces in the fighting against the Napoleonic armies during the "Peninsular War" of 1807-1814. In the First World War, at least two types of weapons that were used by the German army and that constituted a shock to the Entente can be considered from the category of hybrid arsenal: submarines and toxic gases (mustard gas). Thus, the fear and sentiment of inferiority to the British Naval Forces pushed the German military leadership to approach a more than cautious attitude in engaging the German Imperial Navy's War Fleet in large-scale battles with British enemies. As a result, the attention of the German admirals turned to the impetuous development of the submarine fleet and implicitly to the total submarine warfare, nothing more than a form of "unrestricted" warfare. An example-rich and well-argued presentation on the use of hybrid methods in conflicts in history can be found in the work of the American military historian Peter R. Mansoor, entitled "Introduction Hybrid Warfare in History". Through this study, the author demonstrates that hybrid warfare has a long history, starting in ancient Greece and being present in many of the conflicts on various meridians. At the same time, the American historian points out that hybrid warfare has evolved substantially, becoming, in the 21st century, a complex manifestation by combining 96 Strategies XXI – ACNDC Bucharest, June 25, 2021 different approaches to war, which essentially reflects strategic cultures, historical legacies, geographical realities and economic means of the protagonists102. Therefore, "hybrid warfare" is developing in multiple areas, being increasingly adopted at the level of some states that base their military doctrines or security strategies on methods and tools unconventional or unusual in the classical sense of war. 1.2. Fundamental elements of the concept If we consider the “hybrid war”, as the war of all possibilities or the war without restrictions, we can also establish those who, throughout history, have contributed to the foundation of the concept. Thus, in "The Art of War", more than 2,500 years ago, Sun Tzu opens horizons for approaching war by other means and tools than those that are strictly military or that include only armed actions. Thus, at least the following citations may be submitted for example: "He who fights for victory with the sword alone is not a good general."103 Therefore, Sun Tzu expresses with the utmost clarity that a war is waged with other means, and even these are the recipe for success. Then, with the quote "Attack where the opponent does not expect"104 the great strategist invites to find any opportunity, even too little in the military field, to hit an opponent. Basically, it is not, stricto senso, about a place or a position but about identifying the vulnerabilities of the opponent. Moreover, Sun Tzu states that "Those who are experts in the art of war subdue the enemy army without a fight."105 Or "submission of the army without a fight", even if it seems to be a paradox, actually expresses the value and supreme force of other means and methods of conquest, but which are part of the game of war, battle and confrontation. And last but not least, the quote “In war the best policy is to conquer the state intact; destroying it is the last resort."106 It can be deduced that the main effort should not be the military one, on the contrary, this being the last solution. There must be a constant threat of military force, but victory must be achieved by other means and methods. In an arc over the millennia, we find another famous expression of war or somehow a definition of it. General Carl von Clausewitz, in his famous work "On War", entitled a subchapter with the following phrase: "War is only a continuation 102 Peter R. Mansoor, Introduction Hybrid Warfare in History, in Williamson Murray, Peter R. Mansoor, eds., Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present, Cambridge University Pres, 2012, https://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/26087/excerpt/9781107026087_excerpt.pdf, , accessed 15.05.2021. 103 Sun Tzu, Arta războiului, cap. III Strategia ofensivă, pct. 6 pag. 23, Editura Antet XX Press, Regia Autonomă a Imprimeriilor, Imprimeria CORESI București. 104 Sun Tzu, op.cit., cap. I Evaluări, pct. 26, p. 13. 105 Sun Tzu, op.cit., cap. III Strategia ofensivă, pct. 10, p. 24. 106 Sun Tzu, op.cit., cap. III Strategia ofensivă, pct. 1, p. 22. 97 Strategies XXI – ACNDC Bucharest, June 25, 2021 of politics by other means"107. The author develops the content of this title, which became famous over time, in the following form: "We see, therefore, that war is not a political act, but a real political instrument, a continuation of political relations, their realization by other means"108. With the clear and assumed mention that the quote should not be broken from the overall context of the paper and without entering into the almost philosophical complexity of the meanings and interpretations of the great military theorist's thought, the question can still be asked: What can be understood by “other means” syntagma? And it is clear that the answer does not refer only to strictly military means, but to all the forms, methods and actions that, in a war, can contribute to victory. Continuing the approach regarding the theorists of the concept of "hybrid war" we will mention the contribution of the two Chinese officers, Colonel Qiao Liang and Colonel Wang Xiangsui, who in the work entitled "Unrestricted War", published in 1999 by PLA Literature and Arts, develops the subject of open thinking in order to discover new ways to fight with any opponents and against any abilities. The two theorists thus state the basic feature of hybrid warfare - war without rules and restrictions.