Transitions and the Modern Presidency1
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Of Hazards and Opportunities: Transitions and the Modern Presidency1 Roger B. Porter Harvard University In 1980, Richard Neustadt added three essays to his original study of presidential power, one of which he entitled "The Hazards of Transition." The subject of presidential transitions has continued to engage his interest and he has articulated a well developed view of both the importance of transitions and the challenges and difficulties they present. His subsequent work reflects the view expressed in his 1980 essay that transitions are times full of hazards.2 He warns of pitfalls; his counsel is caution. I argue for postponement.... Transitions are not forever, ignorance wears off, hopefulness cools down....it should be worth a forfeit of presumptive gains to skirt the losses lurking when one's ignorance and hopefulness combine.3 On what do his concerns rest? What accounts for his emphasis on risks and his celebration of caution? How do his views on transition fit into the larger tapestry of his conception of the Presidency? I The original edition of Presidential Power, not surprisingly, contained little about transitions. Since the early 1930's when Franklin Roosevelt became President until late 1959 when Neustadt was putting the finishing touches on Presidential Power, there were but two presidential transitions, only one of which involved a change of party. The thirty six years following the 1960 publication of Presidential Power have produced eight presidential transitions,4 five of them involving a change of parties.5 1 Paper prepared for Conference on Presidential Power Revisited, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C., June 13, 1996. 2 In addition to chapter 11 of Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership from FDR to Carter (New York: John Wiley, 1980), Richard E. Neustadt's other writings on transitions include: "The Reagan Transition," Presidency Research 3, 2 (April 1981); "Memo on Presidential Transition," The American Prospect Issue 11 (Fall 1992), pp. 53-60; "Can Clinton Govern?" The American Prospect Issue 14 (Summer 1993), pp. 7-10; and "Presidential Transitions: Are the Risks Rising?" Miller Center Journal Vol. 1 (Spring 1994), pp. 3-12. Three Neustadt memorandums in the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library also deal with aspects of transitions: "Organizing the Transition: A Tentative Check-List for the Weeks between Election and Inaugural;" "Staffing the President-Elect" (October 30, 1960); and "Cabinet Departments: Some Things to Keep in Mind" (November 3, 1960). 3 Richard E. Neustadt, Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership from FDR to Carter (New York: John Wiley, 1980), p. 231. All future references will be to the 1980 edition unless otherwise noted. 4 1961, 1963, 1969, 1974, 1977, 1981, 1989, and 1993. 5 1961, 1969, 1977, 1981, and 1993. 2 Moreover, transitions have grown not merely in frequency, but arguably in importance as scrutiny by the media and the public has risen, party changes have increased, and previous experience in Washington by newly elected presidents has declined.6 Neustadt's contributions to our understanding of transitions begin with his effort to define the term with some precision: A President's transition can be defined in two ways, narrowly by the time-span between election and inaugural, broadly by the time until he and his principal associates become familiar with the work they have to do, including what to ask of one another and what to expect in response. Transition in the first sense lasts approximately eleven weeks. Transition in the second stretches on until about the time, two years after election, when the "new" Administration has experienced both sessions of a Congress, along with friends and adversaries overseas, and begins to see the shape of the events, hence commitments, that will dominate the presidential term.7 By contrasting the relatively short pre-inaugural transition period with a much longer post-inaugural transition, Neustadt underscores his conviction that the Presidency involves much experiential learning. During transitions presidents acquire a feel for people and institutions, for events and needs, for friends and foes, for possibilities and priorities. Transitions, defined in this sense, extend well beyond an initial honeymoon period; indeed, the settling in may last for upwards of half a term. II Given this view of transitions, Neustadt, not surprisingly, finds the time for modern presidents between their election and inaugural as too short. "The eleven weeks are hazardous because they are so few.”8 He longs wistfully for a longer pre-inaugural transition noting approvingly that presidents before Franklin Roosevelt's second term had four months between their election in early November and their swearing-in on March 4 in which to plan and prepare.9 6 In the period between 1929 and 1977 every President had some claim on significant experience in Washington -- Herbert Hoover as Secretary of Commerce, Franklin Roosevelt as Secretary of the Navy, Harry Truman as a Senator and Vice President, Dwight Eisenhower whose military career included extensive experience in Washington, John Kennedy as a member of the House and Senate, Lyndon Johnson as a member of the House and Senate and Vice President, Richard Nixon as a member of the House and Senate and Vice President, and Gerald Ford as a member of the House and Vice President. Since 1976, only George Bush as a member of the House, CIA Director, and Vice President had significant previous Washington experience before assuming the Presidency. 7 Presidential Power, p. 217. 8 Ibid. 9 The change was occasioned by the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution ratified on February 6, 1933. Before the Twentieth Amendment presidents traditionally delivered their State of the Union address in December after Congress had convened on the first Monday of that month. 3 Moreover, since the Congress by tradition departed on March 3 and did not reconvene until December unless the President called it into special session, presidents were provided an equally ample post-inaugural settling-in period. Furthermore, presidents could learn outside the glare of television cameras as they and the administration they had assembled began the tasks of governing. Given that an extended pre-inaugural period is gone, certain urgent tasks for presidents loom large: "a pattern for the presidential staff and initial appointments to suit... Cabinet and sub-Cabinet appointments... a legislative program or at least a holding action with a start upon specifics... a point of view toward diplomatic and defense initiatives left dangling by the previous Administration...(a point of view on the budget of) the outgoing regime...(and) a 'memorable' Inaugural Address." Furthermore, "the new look of the President-elect... has to be impressed upon a temporarily attentive public and an insatiably curious Washington."10 The president-elect will almost certainly undertake this necessary and unquestionably challenging array of tasks following a lengthy, intense, and exhausting campaign. Some rest as well as reflection seems in order. Instead of rest and reflection, however, the weeks between election and inauguration are frenetic and a time for misjudgments that later come to haunt presidents after they are in office. Neustadt's examination of Jimmy Carter's transition does not fill him with hope. Rather, he describes the Carter transition as characterized by: battles between parallel campaign and transition organizations; an overly large transition staff fueled by excessive public funding for pre-inauguration salaries and expenses; a long delay in appointing White House staff with too little time to permit them to plan, organize and establish working relationships before being thrust into their jobs; an overemphasis on the importance of department heads which resulted in an unhealthy competition between White House staff and executive departments; and a failure to cultivate the press who were bored covering Carter in Plains, Georgia.11 Using these criteria Neustadt assesses the 1981 Reagan transition as substantially more successful than Carter's with less internal friction and more time devoted to establishing working relationships among the President's key aides and between them and him, and to planning for the early weeks after taking office. Having a successful model, however, is no guarantee that one can imitate it. His verdict on the Clinton transition mirrors his assessment of Carter's 1977 experience: With the best of intentions, no doubt, Clinton essentially ignored Reagan's experience and reproduced Carter's. When the Clinton campaigners rebelled at his initial choice for White House chief of staff, he scrambled to find a substitute who then took a month to decide whether to accept the position. Halfway through the eleven weeks, Clinton named the man then in charge of personnel selection to be secretary of education. Two-thirds of the way through, Clinton named Warren Christopher, then acting chief of staff, for most intents and purposes, to be secretary of state. The President entered office with a late appointed White House staff that had not worked together in their new jobs or become familiar with each other and with Clinton's organizational needs in their new setting.12 10 Presidential Power, p. 217. 11 Ibid., pp. 218-219. 12 "Presidential Transitions: Are the Risks Rising?" p. 10. 4 Having accepted the reality of an approximately eleven week period before the inaugural, Neustadt's recommendations for the pre-inaugural period are modest. A presidential aspirant should: keep transition planning "informal and anonymous before election;"13 spend more time with his staff before inaugural; and "organize his staff soon after election and insulate it thereafter."14 Simpler is often better. Building an effective team to govern requires time, care and attention. Few uses of his energy will pay as high a dividend for a president-elect as tending to these tasks. III It is with respect to the period following the inaugural, however, that Neustadt devotes his greatest attention.