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NW Region Deyr09-10 Final Presentation

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NW Region Deyr09-10 Final Presentation Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia Post Deyr ’ 09/10 Assessment Analysis Northwest Regions 27th January – June 2010 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Field Access and Field Data Locations Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal Valley, and Golis/ Guban Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat • 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agro-pastoral) Togdheer Agro-Pastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self- employment (fodder sales), main source of food: purchase Northwest Agro-pastoral are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchase. Climate Performance of the Deyr ‘09 Season Deyr Seasonal Rains (Oct- Dec ) • Start of Season: Rains started early in September 09 in most parts of the regions. • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration of rainfall was short and localized in terms of distribution and frequency Dry spell regions: Togdheer, Sool and Sanag • Near normal rains in livelihood zones: near normal rains received in lower Nugal and Hawd of Sool region (80-120%LTM). • Poor rains in livelihood zones: Hawd of Togdheer, Hawd of Hargeisa, upper Nugal valley, Sool plateau, Golis/Guban and Agro-pastoral of Togdheer, Hargeisa and Borama (20-40% LTM) • Poor to average pasture conditions in Lower Nugal and Hawd of Sool region, but the rest of poor condition. Karan Rain (July – Sept’09.) • Start of Season:Karan rains started Late in August’09 , but normally starts in late July • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Karan rains were Limited to west agro-pastoral areas of W/galbeed and Awdal regions • Near normal rains: Gabiley district • Poor rains: Borama, Hargeisa and Togdheer Agro-pastoral. -3 -2 -1 0 2 3 Z-scores 1 1982 1983 gu deyr 1984 gu deyr 1985 gu deyr 1986 gu deyr n Elafwey RFE 1987 gu deyr 1988 gu deyr 1989 gu deyr 1990 gu deyr 1991 gu deyr Standardized differencefromLTA 1992 gu deyr 1993 gu deyr 1994 gu Year Year deyr 1995 gu deyr 1996 gu deyr 1997 gu deyr 1998 gu deyr 1999 gu deyr 2000 gu deyr 2001 gu deyr 2002 gu deyr 2003 gu deyr 2004 gu deyr 2005 gu deyr 2006 gu deyr 2007 gu deyr 2008 gu deyr 2009 gu deyr gu deyr -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 2 3 1 2 3 0 Z-scores Z-scores 1 1982 1982 gu 1983 gu deyr 1983 deyr gu 1984 gu deyr 1984 deyr 1985 gu gu 1985 Hudun NDVI Hudun RFE deyr Burao NDVI Burao RFE deyr gu 1986 gu deyr 1986 deyr gu Standardized differencefromLTA 1987 gu deyr 1987 deyr gu 1988 gu deyr 1988 deyr gu 1989 gu deyr 1989 deyr gu 1990 gu deyr 1990 deyr gu 1991 gu 1991 deyr deyr Standardized differencefromLTA gu 1992 gu deyr 1992 deyr gu 1993 gu deyr 1993 deyr gu 1994 gu 1994 Year Year deyr deyr Year Year 1995 gu gu deyr 1995 deyr gu 1996 gu deyr 1996 deyr gu 1997 gu deyr 1997 deyr gu 1998 gu deyr 1998 deyr gu 1999 gu deyr 1999 deyr gu 2000 gu deyr 2000 deyr gu 2001 gu deyr 2001 deyr gu 2002 gu deyr 2002 deyr gu gu 2003 deyr 2003 deyr gu gu 2004 deyr 2004 deyr 2005 gu gu deyr 2005 deyr gu gu 2006 deyr 2006 deyr gu gu 2007 deyr 2007 deyr gu gu 2008 deyr 2008 deyr gu gu 2009 2009 deyr deyr gu gu deyr deyr Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation: The security of the Northwest zone remains stable. Land dispute tension between Gabiley & Dila farmer commuities is diffused and is under the control of the government. Source: FSAU & Protecon Cluster Agriculture Northwest Cereal Production Gu-Karan Cereal Production Estimates in SomaliLand (North West) Gu 2009 Production in MT Gu- Karan Gu-Karan 2009 Gu-Karan 2009 as 2009 as as % of Gu- % of 5 year Regions % of Karan PWA average Gu- (1998-2008) (2004-2008) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal Karan 2008 Awdal 60 825 885 56% 28% 22% Togdheer 5 200 205 23% 36% 21% Woqooyi Galbeed 175 9,500 9,675 64% 65% 56% 240 10,525 10,765 61% 58% 49% TOTAL Agriculture Gu Karan ‘09 Crop Harvest Estimate Trends Gu Karan ‘09 Gebiley Crop Harvest Estimate 85% Regional Distribution Hargeisa Togdheer 5% 2% Awdal 8% Long Term Trends in Gu Karan Crop Production (1996-2009) 30,000 Sorghum Maize PWA 5 year Avrg 25,000 20,000 15,000 MT 10,000 5,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Agriculture Gu/Karan ‘09 Cereal Crop Harvest Crop Failure –Burao-Togdheer Agro-pastoral- Good Crop harvest –Gebiley-West Agro-pastoral- Ahmed –Nov. 09 Ahmed –Nov. 09 Agriculture Deyr ‘09 Commercial Cereal Flow Dec. ’09 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade RED SORGHUM PRICE BURAO 12,000 Five Year 10,000 Monthly average 8,000 6,000 Regional Trend in SoSh 2008 4,000 Cereal Prices 2,000 (Sorghum) ‐ 2009 July May June April er er er March August January October Decemb Novemb Septemb February TOT Cereal(Sorghum) to Labour BURAO Five Year 14 Monthly Regional Trends in 12 average Terms of Trade: 10 8 Cereal to Labor 2008 6 4 (Sorghum kg 2 0 /daily wage) 2009 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade White SORGHUM PRICES ‐ HARGEYSA 8,000 Five Year 7,000 Monthly 6,000 average 5,000 4,000 Regional Trend in SoSh 2008 3,000 Cereal Prices 2,000 1,000 (Sorghum) ‐ 2009 Average of TOT white Sorghum 1kg To Labour Hargeisa 20 Five Year 18 Monthly 16 average 14 12 Regional Trends in Terms of 10 Trade: Cereal to Labor SoSh 2008 8 6 4 (Kg of Sorghum/daily wage) 2 ‐ 2009 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade IMPORTED RED RICE‐Erigavo Five Year 50,000 Monthly average 40,000 30,000 2008 20,000 Sosh 10,000 0 2009 t y July er ary May June April Dece Nove mber mber mber Septe Febru Octob Augus March Januar Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor TOT Cereal(Rice) to Labour‐Erigavo Five Year 9 Monthly 8 7 average 6 5 2008 4 3 2 1 0 2009 Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration Dec. ’09 • Poor performance of Deyr ’09 season • Negatively affected both pasture/browse and water conditions • Resulting in average to poor livestock body conditions and poor production • Leading to stressed abnormal migration Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production Milk Expected Conception Calving/kidding Trends in Herd Size (June’10) Region production calving/ kidding (Deyr ‘09) (Deyr ‘09) (Deyr ‘09) Jan-July ’09 Livelihoods Livestock species NW Hawd Hawd All Species: Hawd: Camel: Hawd Camel : Decreased to 43% in Dec. ‘09 Camel: medium Camel: Low to none Below None-Low and projected 72% of baseline in Jun ‘10 Sheep/goats: Sheep/goats: Low Average Sh/goats: Sheep/goats: Decrease to 41% in Dec09 medium to Low Medium- low and projected 57% of baseline in June, 10 Nugaal valley Nugaal Valley Below Nugaal valley: Camel: medium- Camel: none -low Average Camel: Nugaal Camel: Decrease to 49% in Dec’09 and to low Sheep/ Sheep/goat: none- medium-low Valley maintained 49% of baseline in June’10) goat: Medium- low Sh/goats: Sheep/goats:Decreased to 59% in Low Medium-low Dec09 and projected 49% of baseline in June’10 Sool plateau Sool Plateau Below Camel: none –low Camel: none Average Sool plateau: Sool Camel: Decrease to 1% in Dec’09 and Sheep/ Sheep/goats: none Camel: non- Plateau maintained 1% of baseline inJune,10 goat :none-low Low Sheep/goats: Decreased to 32% in W.Golis/Guban Dec’09 and projected as 31% of W.Golis/Guban: Camel: low-none Below W.Golis/Guban: baseline in June ,10 Camel :none- Sheep/goat: low Average Camel:low-none Low Sheep/goat: Sh/Goat: Camel: 123% above baseline in Dec’09 medium medium W/Golis- and projected145% of baseline by June. E/Golis-guban guban 10. Camel: none-low Sheep/goats: decreased to 55% in E/Golis:Guban Sh/goat: none-low Below E/Golis guban: Dec’09 and projected 62% of baseline in Camel; none-low Average Camel: None-low June10 Sh/goat: low- Sh/goat: low- E/Golis- Camel : decreased to 33% in Dec’09, and none None guban maintained 33% of baseline in June10 Sh/goat: Decreased to 65% in Dec and maintained 65% of baseline in June,10 Livestock Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade LOCAL GOAT QUALITY‐Burao Five Year 500,000 Monthly 400,000 average 300,000 2008 200,000 Sosh 100,000 0 2009 Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat ( rice kg/head) TOT Cereal(Rice) to L. Goat‐Burao 70 Five Year Monthly 60 average 50 40 30 2008 20 10 0 2009 Livestock Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade LOCAL GOAT QUALITY‐Erigavo Regional Trend in Goat Prices TOT Cereal(Rice) to L. Goat-Erigavo Five Year 60 Regional Trends in Monthly 50 average Terms of Trade: 40 Cereal to Goat ( rice 30 2008 kg/head) 20 10 0 2009 Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port Berbera: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Livestock figures exported via Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) 900 70 Lawya-Addo (Aug-Dec.09) Shoats Cattle Camel Hargesia Burao 800 60 700 50 16,000 600 Thousands 14,000 500 40 12,000 400 30 10,000 300 8,000 20 Shoats 200 Price Per Head (US$) 6,000 10 Camel 100 4,000 Cattle 2,000 0 0 0 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Dec-12 Nov-13 Dec-13 Sep-13 Aug.09 Aug-13 Sept.09 Oct.09 May-13 Nov.09 Month Dec.09 Livestock Exports (Heads) Livestock Situations -Photos Early Water Trucking in Sool Plateau, Sanaag region, Dec.
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