Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia

Post Deyr ’ 09/10 Assessment Analysis

Northwest Regions

27th January – June 2010

EUROPEAN COMMISSION Field Access and Field Data Locations Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal Valley, and Golis/ Guban Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase  Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat • 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods ( and Northwest Agro-pastoral)  Togdheer Agro-Pastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self- employment (fodder sales), main source of food: purchase  Northwest Agro-pastoral are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchase. Climate Performance of the Deyr ‘09 Season

Deyr Seasonal Rains (Oct- Dec ) • Start of Season: Rains started early in September 09 in most parts of the regions. • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration of rainfall was short and localized in terms of distribution and frequency  Dry spell regions: Togdheer, Sool and Sanag

• Near normal rains in livelihood zones: near normal rains received in lower Nugal and Hawd of Sool region (80-120%LTM). • Poor rains in livelihood zones: Hawd of Togdheer, Hawd of Hargeisa, upper Nugal valley, Sool plateau, Golis/Guban and Agro-pastoral of Togdheer, Hargeisa and Borama (20-40% LTM) • Poor to average pasture conditions in Lower Nugal and Hawd of Sool region, but the rest of poor condition. Karan Rain (July – Sept’09.) • Start of Season:Karan rains started Late in August’09 , but normally starts in late July • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Karan rains were Limited to west agro-pastoral areas of W/galbeed and regions • Near normal rains: district • Poor rains: Borama, Hargeisa and Togdheer Agro-pastoral. RFE Standardized difference from LTA 3 Hudun NDVI 2 Hudun 1 0 -1

-2Z-scores -3 gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr

19821983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year

Standardized difference from LTA Standardized difference from LTA RFE 3 Burao RFE 3 NDVI Elafwey 2 Burao 2 n 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 Z-scores Z-scores -2 -2 -3 -3 gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu gu deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr deyr 19821983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 19821983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Year Civil Insecurity

Civil Security Situation:  The security of the Northwest zone remains stable.  Land dispute tension between Gabiley & Dila farmer commuities is diffused and is under the control of the government.

Source: FSAU & Protecon Cluster Agriculture Northwest Cereal Production

Gu-Karan Cereal Production Estimates in (North West)

Gu 2009 Production in MT Gu- Karan Gu-Karan 2009 Gu-Karan 2009 as 2009 as as % of Gu- % of 5 year Regions % of Karan PWA average Gu- (1998-2008) (2004-2008) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal Karan 2008

Awdal 60 825 885 56% 28% 22%

Togdheer 5 200 205 23% 36% 21%

Woqooyi Galbeed 175 9,500 9,675 64% 65% 56%

240 10,525 10,765 61% 58% 49% TOTAL Agriculture Gu Karan ‘09 Crop Harvest Estimate Trends

Gu Karan ‘09 Gebiley Crop Harvest Estimate 85% Regional Distribution Hargeisa Togdheer 5% 2% Awdal 8%

Long Term Trends in Gu Karan Crop Production (1996-2009)

30,000 Sorghum Maize PWA 5 year Avrg 25,000

20,000

15,000 MT

10,000

5,000

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year Agriculture Gu/Karan ‘09 Cereal Crop Harvest

Crop Failure –Burao-Togdheer Agro-pastoral- Good Crop harvest –Gebiley-West Agro-pastoral- Ahmed –Nov. 09 Ahmed –Nov. 09 Agriculture

Deyr ‘09 Commercial Cereal Flow Dec. ’09 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

RED SORGHUM PRICE BURAO 12,000 Five Year 10,000 Monthly average 8,000

6,000 Regional Trend in

SoSh 2008 4,000 Cereal Prices 2,000 (Sorghum) ‐ 2009 July May June April er er er March August January October Decemb Novemb Septemb February

TOT Cereal(Sorghum) to Labour BURAO

Five Year 14 Monthly Regional Trends in 12 average Terms of Trade: 10 8 Cereal to Labor 2008 6 4 (Sorghum kg 2 0 /daily wage) 2009 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

White SORGHUM PRICES ‐ HARGEYSA 8,000 Five Year 7,000 Monthly 6,000 average 5,000 4,000 Regional Trend in SoSh 2008 3,000 Cereal Prices 2,000 1,000 (Sorghum) ‐ 2009

Average of TOT white Sorghum 1kg To Labour Hargeisa

20 Five Year 18 Monthly 16 average 14 12 Regional Trends in Terms of 10 Trade: Cereal to Labor

SoSh 2008 8 6 4 (Kg of Sorghum/daily wage) 2 ‐ 2009 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

IMPORTED RED RICE‐Erigavo Five Year 50,000 Monthly average 40,000

30,000 2008

20,000 Sosh

10,000

0 2009 t y July er ary May June April Dece Nove mber mber mber Septe Febru Octob Augus March Januar Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor

TOT Cereal(Rice) to Labour‐Erigavo Five Year 9 Monthly 8 7 average 6 5 2008 4 3 2 1 0 2009 Livestock

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration Dec. ’09

• Poor performance of Deyr ’09 season

• Negatively affected both pasture/browse and water conditions

• Resulting in average to poor livestock body conditions and poor production

• Leading to stressed abnormal migration Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production

Milk Expected Conception Calving/kidding Trends in Herd Size (June’10) Region production calving/ kidding (Deyr ‘09) (Deyr ‘09) (Deyr ‘09) Jan-July ’09 Livelihoods Livestock species

NW Hawd Hawd All Species: Hawd: Camel: Hawd Camel : Decreased to 43% in Dec. ‘09 Camel: medium Camel: Low to none Below None-Low and projected 72% of baseline in Jun ‘10 Sheep/goats: Sheep/goats: Low Average Sh/goats: Sheep/goats: Decrease to 41% in Dec09 medium to Low Medium- low and projected 57% of baseline in June, 10 Nugaal valley Nugaal Valley Below Nugaal valley: Camel: medium- Camel: none -low Average Camel: Nugaal Camel: Decrease to 49% in Dec’09 and to low Sheep/ Sheep/goat: none- medium-low Valley maintained 49% of baseline in June’10) goat: Medium- low Sh/goats: Sheep/goats:Decreased to 59% in Low Medium-low Dec09 and projected 49% of baseline in June’10 Sool plateau Sool Plateau Below Camel: none –low Camel: none Average Sool plateau: Sool Camel: Decrease to 1% in Dec’09 and Sheep/ Sheep/goats: none Camel: non- Plateau maintained 1% of baseline inJune,10 goat :none-low Low Sheep/goats: Decreased to 32% in W.Golis/Guban Dec’09 and projected as 31% of W.Golis/Guban: Camel: low-none Below W.Golis/Guban: baseline in June ,10 Camel :none- Sheep/goat: low Average Camel:low-none Low Sheep/goat: Sh/Goat: Camel: 123% above baseline in Dec’09 medium medium W/Golis- and projected145% of baseline by June. E/Golis-guban guban 10. Camel: none-low Sheep/goats: decreased to 55% in E/Golis:Guban Sh/goat: none-low Below E/Golis guban: Dec’09 and projected 62% of baseline in Camel; none-low Average Camel: None-low June10 Sh/goat: low- Sh/goat: low- E/Golis- Camel : decreased to 33% in Dec’09, and none None guban maintained 33% of baseline in June10 Sh/goat: Decreased to 65% in Dec and maintained 65% of baseline in June,10 Livestock Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade

LOCAL GOAT QUALITY‐Burao Five Year 500,000 Monthly 400,000 average 300,000 2008 200,000 Sosh 100,000 0 2009 Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat ( rice kg/head)

TOT Cereal(Rice) to L. Goat‐Burao

70 Five Year Monthly 60 average 50 40 30 2008 20 10 0

2009 Livestock Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade

LOCAL GOAT QUALITY‐Erigavo

Regional Trend in Goat Prices

TOT Cereal(Rice) to L. Goat-Erigavo Five Year 60 Regional Trends in Monthly 50 average Terms of Trade: 40 Cereal to Goat ( rice 30 2008 kg/head) 20 10 0 2009 Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port

Berbera: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Livestock figures exported via Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) 900 70 Lawya-Addo (Aug-Dec.09) Shoats Cattle Camel Hargesia Burao 800 60 700 50 16,000 600 Thousands 14,000 500 40 12,000 400 30 10,000 300 8,000 20 Shoats 200 Price Per Head (US$) 6,000 10 Camel 100 4,000 Cattle 2,000 0 0 0 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Dec-12 Nov-13 Dec-13 Sep-13 Aug.09 Aug-13 Sept.09 Oct.09 May-13 Nov.09 Month Dec.09 Livestock Exports (Heads) Livestock Situations -Photos

Early Water Trucking in Sool Plateau, region, Dec. ’09 Abdullahi Warsame Livestock Livestock Body Condions & Pasture: Camel & Cale

Poor camel condition in Hawd of Togdheer, Dec’09-Yusuf Livestock death at Hagaa -Sool plateau- Sanaag Region Dec’09- Abdirizak Markets Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates

Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices: Northwest: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate Decreases/or Increases 14000 PETROL 1 Litre • RICE IMPORTED RED 12000 SUGAR VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre • Appreciation of SLSh (Imports 10000 SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR expensive) 8000 • Decreased Global Prices 6000 • Low Supply only Sugar and V. 4000 Oil Price per Unit (SlSh) 2000 • Low local Commodity supply 0 • Tariffs and Taxations

Month Summary of Nutrition Findings

Region Nutrition Surveys Rapid MUAC Health Information System TFC/OTP/ Other relevant Summary of analysis and (Oct-Dec. 09) Screening (% Info SFC information – Key change from Gu 09 <12.5cm) (Source: HIS data R=3) driving factors

Pastoral – WestGolis/Guban 5.6 (1.7-9.4) HIS TRENDS: Low and stable OTP and SFP by MORBIDITY: No West Golis/Guban GAM:6.8% Pr=0.90 number of acutely UNICEF, disease outbreaks. Improved from Serious to SAM: Pr<1% malnourished children WV,MC,SRCS interventions by Alert and MOHL WFP, SRCS, UNICEF , HIS nutrition trend: high and DD is good Hawd Of Galbeed and Hawd of Galbeed remains Sool 8.1 (4.4-11.7) increasing no. of acutely malnourished children MORBIDITY: No Serious no change, Hawd of GAM:9.4% Pr=0.90 disease outbreaks. Sool improvement to Alert SAM: <1% HIS nutrition trend: high and DD is good in Sool, poor in Galbeed Hawd of Togdheer increasing no. of acutely OTP & SFP in Improvement from Critical to Hawd of Togdheer 8.8 (4.2-13.5) malnourished children( Burao show Serious (PPS) admissions from MORBIDITY: 48.4%, GAM= 10.4% (7.8-13.7) HIS nutrition trend: high and rural areas Diarrhoea-27.7%, DD East Golis of Sanaag/Gebbi SAM= 1% (0.4-2.4) increasing no. of acutely –Critical (24.9% Slight Improvement from malnourished children consuming <4 food Critical to Serious groups a day 6.1 (3.0-9.2) Sool Plateau East Golis of Sanaag HIS nutrition trend: high and MORBIDITY: 19.8% Stable at Serious compared to and Gebbi Valley increasing no. of acutely Diarrhea – 9.6%, DD Gu 09 GAM:7.9% Pr=0.90 malnourished children is poor, no milk SAM: Pr<1% 4.5 (1.6-6.7) Nugal Valley HIS nutrition trend: high and Stable at Serious compared to MORBIDITY: No Sool Plateau increasing no. of acutely Gu 09 malnourished children disease outbreaks. GAM:9.1% Pr=0.90 DD is poor, no milk SAM: Pr<1% 5.0 (2.2-7.4) • HIS nutrition trend: low but Galbeed and Awdal increasing numbers of Agropastoral Nugal Valley malnourished children MORBIDITY: No Improvement from Critical to GAM:9.2% Pr=0.90 disease outbreaks. Serious SAM: Pr<1.9% DD is poor, no milk 3.5 (1.9-6.0) HIS nutrition trend: high and Agro- increasing numbers of Togdheer Agro pastoral - Pastoral Stable at Critical Galbeed- and Awdal malnourished children MORBIDITY: 29.8%, agro pastoral. GAM: DD: Is fair, milk and 9.8% Pr=0.90 cereal available SAM: Pr<1% 8.7 (5.7-11.7) MORBIDITY: 36.8%, Togdheer Agro-pastoral Diarrhea 21.0%, DD – GAM:16.1% (13.1-19.1) Serious 14.7% SAM: 2.9 (1.5-4.4) Estimated Nutrition Situation, Northwest Regions, July 2009

Estimated Nutrition Situation, Northwest Regions, Jan 2010 Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation

MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2009 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2009/10 MAP 3: Livelihood Zones

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: HE: (100% of Poor and 25% of Middle in Togdheer Agro-pastoral LZ and 100% of poor in Pastoral Sool-Sanag Plateau) • Acute malnutrition: Critical and stable in Agropastoral • Food Access: severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day • Water Access: accessed via livelihood asset striping • Destitution/Displacement: emerging destitution in Sool, Togdheer , Sanaag regions • Coping: distress strategies and increasing • Livelihood Assets: accelerated and near complete Main Causes: • 4-5 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to:  consecutive seasons of crop failures  limited livestock production and high livestock off-take • High food and non-food prices, high water prices • Reduced household income from own production Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2009 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2009/10 MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: AFLC: (100% of Poor in North-West Agro-pastoral LZ, Hawd, Nugal valley; 75% in Golis Guban) • Acute malnutrition: serious and Alert • Food Access: lack of entitlement, 2100 kcal ppp day via livelihood asset striping • Water Access: accessed via livelihood asset striping • Destitution/Displacement: emerging, diffuse • Coping: crisis strategies and increasing • Livelihood Assets: accelerated and critical depletion

Main Causes: • 3-4 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to:  consecutive seasons of crop failures  limited livestock production and high livestock off-take • High food and non-food prices, high water prices • Reduced household income from own production IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE

Assessed and High Risk Populaon in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Rural GU 09 Deyr 2009‐10 NW Regions Affected Districts Populaon Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarian Emergency Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarian Emergency Crisis (AFLC) (HE) Crisis (AFLC) (HE) Awdal Baki 16,923 2,000 0 2,000 0 Borama 132,695 17,000 0 17,000 0 Lughaye 22,094 2,000 0 2,000 0 Zeylac 22,801 2,000 0 2,000 0 Sub‐total 194,513 23,000 0 23,000 0 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera 18,683 1,000 0 1,000 0 Gebiley 53,717 5,000 0 3,000 0 Hargeysa 137,513 26,000 0 26,000 0 Sub‐total 209,913 32,000 0 30,000 0 Togdheer Burco 191,748 53,000 2,000 52,000 2,000 Buuhoodle 28,821 8,000 0 8,000 0 Owdweyne 30,924 8,000 1,000 8,000 1,000 Sheikh 27,400 7,000 1,000 7,000 1,000 Sub‐total 278,893 76,000 4,000 75,000 4,000 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn 53,638 16,000 1,000 14,000 1,000 Ceerigaabo 83,748 23,000 4,000 18,000 6,000 Laasqoray/Badhan 76,902 34,000 11,000 28,000 15,000 Sub‐total 214,288 73,000 16,000 60,000 22,000 Sool Caynabo 24,026 7,000 0 7,000 0 Laas Caanood 50,606 15,000 0 15,000 0 Taleex 20,983 7,000 1,000 7,000 2,000 Xudun 15,528 6,000 1,000 5,000 1,000 Sub‐total 111,143 35,000 2,000 34,000 3,000 Grand Total 1,008,750 239,000 22,000 222,000 29,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 261,000 251,000 IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE

Assessed and High Risk Populaon in AFLC and HE Esmated Populaon of Affected GU 09 Deyr 2009‐10 NW Region Affected Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Humanitarian Emergency Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarian (AFLC) (HE) Crisis (AFLC) Emergency (HE) Awdal NW Irrigated: Vegetables 1,133 Fishing 1,149 0 0 0 0 Golis Pastoral 74,592 3,000 0 3,000 0 Guban Pastoral 42,612 3,000 0 3,000 0 NWAgro‐past: Sorghum, cale 75,026 17,000 0 17,000 0 Sub‐total 194,513 23,000 0 23,000 0 Woqooyi Galbeed Fishing 1,437 0 0 0 0 Golis Pastoral 67,455 2,000 0 2,000 0 Hawd Pastoral 70,830 20,000 0 20,000 0 NWAgro‐past: Sorghum, cale 70,191 10,000 0 8,000 0 Sub‐total 209,913 32,000 0 30,000 0 Togdheer Golis‐Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 23,698 6,000 0 6,000 0 Hawd Pastoral 223,347 62,000 0 63,000 0 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 11,984 4,000 0 4,000 0 Togdheer Agro‐past: Sorghum, cale 19,864 4,000 4,000 2,000 4,000 Sub‐total 278,893 76,000 4,000 75,000 4,000 Sanaag Coastal Deeh: sheep 8,819 0 0 Fishing 6,374 0 0 0 0 Golis‐Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 56,596 15,000 0 15,000 0 Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 30,415 7,000 0 0 0 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 37,396 11,000 0 11,000 0 Potato Zone & Vegetables 7,052 1,000 0 0 0 Sool‐Sanag Plateau Pastoral 67,636 39,000 16,000 34,000 22,000 Sub‐total 214,288 73,000 16,000 60,000 22,000 Sool Hawd Pastoral 30,108 8,000 0 8,000 0 Nugal valley‐lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel 72,608 22,000 0 22,000 0 Sool‐Sanag Plateau Pastoral 8,427 5,000 2,000 4,000 3,000 Sub‐total 111,143 35,000 2,000 34,000 3,000 GRAND TOTAL 1,008,750 239,000 22,000 222,000 29,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 261,000 251,000 IPC Analysis Templates Gender Analysis Deyr 09

Income sources are: Livestock sales and livestock product sales , petty trade , charcoal, frankincense and crop sales and men take more control of the income except the petty trade and income decreased for both genders; • 80% of Livestock sales is done by men, • 70% livestock product sales is done by women • 100% of charcoal and frankincense is exclusively by men. • 90% of the petty trade is done by women • Crop sales is both men and women( small portions for women) • Men collect frankincense and women sell but give income to men. Fishing is done and sold by men. Increased domination of livestock / product sales in this season by men (normally more shared) Change of roles : Increased domination of livestock/product sales this season by men (normally more shared). • Loan • Food & non-food 90% by men ( including clothes & health) • Water & livestock drugs 85% by men and 15% by women. • Transport 100% by men • Business 100% by women( petty trade) Northwest - Deyr 2009/10 Gender Analysis Summary Table

LZ Types of income Changes in Loan Changes in Roles Income Agro-pastoral Agricultural Decrease of • Increased loan taking for labour, income from staple food by men and No change in livestock sales Livestock sale livestock sales, women (men sell livestock , women Livestock product crop and petty • Water , animal drugs and sell products small sales and petty trade. transport is also done by ruminants);men and women trade men. do s for crops sale.

Sool- sanaag, Livestock sales, Income from Men take loan farming Normally men do the livestock Togdheer, labour , livestock livestock sales activities . Food and non- sales and women do products product sale and carried by men, food is done by both men sales. No changes in roles Awdal, charcoal and petty charcoal by and women. Galbeed trade men and petty pastoral trade by women East /west Frankansice, Low income for Due to lack of production Men collect frankincense and Golis fishing , livestock both genders; has decreased income for women sell but give men and petty trade men take both gender (men and income. Fishing is done and pastoral more control of women). Loan is for food, sold by men. Increased income from transport, and non-food by domination of livestock/

livestock and both;social support for both product sales this season by frankincense ; men (normally more shared petty trade (women)