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Red Lines for a Green China: Adaptation, Negotiation and Experimentation in China’S Efforts to Transform Sustainably

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Red Lines for a Green China: Adaptation, Negotiation and Experimentation in China’S Efforts to Transform Sustainably Red Lines for a Green China: Adaptation, Negotiation and Experimentation in China’s Efforts to Transform Sustainably By Jessica A. Gordon Master of Environmental Science Yale University New Haven, Connecticut (2014) Bachelor of Arts Brown University Providence, Rhode Island (2006) Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Policy and Planning at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2019 © 2019 Jessica A. Gordon. All Rights Reserved The author hereby grants to MIT the permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of the thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Author________________________________________________________________________ Department of Urban Studies and Planning August 12, 2019 Certified by ___________________________________________________________________ Professor Lawrence Susskind Department of Urban Studies and Planning Dissertation Supervisor Accepted by____________________________________________________________________ Professor Lawrence Vale Chair, PhD Committee Department of Urban Studies and Planning 2 Red Lines for a Green China: Adaptation, Negotiation and Experimentation in China’s Efforts to Transform Sustainably By Jessica A. Gordon Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning on August 12, 2019 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Policy and Planning ABSTRACT After years of rapid economic growth and unbridled urbanization, China is now attempting to transition to an “ecological civilization,” the nation’s term for sustainable development. A foundational element of China’s approach is the development and enforcement of “ecological conservation red lines” (ERLs). As the most comprehensive conservation plan in China’s history, for up to 35% of its territory, ERLs define strictly controlled boundaries for ecosystem services and ecologically sensitive areas in order to safeguard natural resources and human health and to address climate risks. Globally, this is the largest effort ever undertaken to plan land uses across geographic scales based on the optimization of ecosystem services. Based on extensive fieldwork and the application of multiple qualitative research and analysis methods, this dissertation is the first comprehensive study of the politics of the ERL. It examines the development of the ERL at the national level and within two localities to address two puzzles: (1) How and why did China create the world’s most comprehensive ecosystem-based land planning strategy? (2) How and why would China which is applying top-down command and control environmental regulation, and is increasingly politically centralized, be able to support local variation? The ERL is an integrated science and practice policy model that produced a paradigmatic idea which changes the conceptualization of land use planning in China. The ERL process combines a historical adaptive “guerilla policy style,” with a more recent command and control environmental regulation in which targets are set by the central government for local implementation. This apparent contradiction in the ERL’s design as dynamic with binding targets has produced an ERL process that was more adaptive, negotiated and flexible than expected. The main determinants of the shape and size of the ERL in each locality were political economy, existing levels of environmental quality, ongoing planning processes, and long-standing institutional dynamics. The ERL outcome has been shaped primarily by interactions among existing institutions in the face of political, economic and moral incentives as understood by local officials. This analysis suggests advances in future studies of institutional change, especially in regards to sustainable transitions. Thesis Supervisor: Lawrence E. Susskind Title: Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning 3 Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................... 6 ACRONYMS ...................................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER 1 ....................................................................................................................... 9 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 9 I. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................. 9 II. THE PROBLEM: ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND URBANIZATION ..... 13 III. SOLUTION: ECOSYSTEM-SERVICE BASED SPATIAL PLANNING ................................................ 16 IV. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK............................................................................................... 23 V. RESEARCH QUESTIONS ..................................................................................................... 33 VI. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 34 VII. INTRODUCTION TO THE CASE STUDY AREAS ....................................................................... 39 CHAPTER 2 ..................................................................................................................... 42 COMBINING SCIENCE AND PRACTICE: ORIGINS AND INSTITUTIONALIZATION ............ 42 I. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 42 II. THE SCIENCE-POLICY STORY ............................................................................................. 45 III. ERL AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT TOOL ............................................................. 55 IV. POLICY-SCIENCE STORY: 2011-2018 ................................................................................. 59 V. A NEW PARADIGM ........................................................................................................... 73 CHAPTER 3 ..................................................................................................................... 78 LOCALIZED: ANHUA COUNTY ........................................................................................ 78 I. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 78 II. CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................ 83 III. ERL PROCESS .................................................................................................................. 85 IV. VISION, FRAMING, KNOWLEDGE ...................................................................................... 100 4 V. NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES ............................................................................................. 105 VII. LAYERING WITH EXISTING INSTITUTIONS ........................................................................... 112 VII． CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................... 117 CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................... 120 LIMITED: JIAXING ......................................................................................................... 120 I. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 120 II. CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................... 123 III. ERL PROCESS ................................................................................................................ 127 IV. VISION, FRAMING, KNOWLEDGE ...................................................................................... 144 V. NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES ............................................................................................. 146 VI. CHALLENGES ................................................................................................................. 150 VII. LAYERING WITH EXISTING INSTITUTIONS ........................................................................... 152 VIII. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................... 155 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 157 I. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 157 II. IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORY............................................................................................. 161 III. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE .......................................................................................... 167 IV. CONTINUAL CHANGE ..................................................................................................... 170 V. FINAL THOUGHTS .......................................................................................................... 171 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 173 APPENDICES ...............................................................................................................
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