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ESG and the Media Sector AMP Capital Investors Limited ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497 ESG and the media sector: staying clear of the value traps Mans Carlsson-Sweeny Sustainable research analyst MAY 2012 The media sector as a whole is facing significant The challenges, implications and responses challenges, from media fragmentation to forthcoming regulatory change. Here we look at some of the key Media fragmentation – more competition for the changes happening in the sector and analyse what advertising pool these mean for investors. The rebound in total advertising spending immediately after the GFC masked significant media fragmentation. In short, media fragmentation means an increasing number of media Key points channels for advertisers to reach their target customers • Media fragmentation and the growth in online through. The explosion of radio and TV channels in the last advertising and social media are posing a number decades has been supplemented with a fresh wave of ‘new’ of challenges for the media sector. media channels, driven by technology change. • Media companies are being forced to innovate, In some cases media fragmentation leads to more effective with many currently transforming from traditional to marketing as advertisers can reach specific target groups digital media companies. through providers of niche content. However, on the whole, it leads to greater competition for the total pool of • Forthcoming regulatory change and an increased advertising money, particularly during times when the key focus on ethics are also expected to be catalysts advertisers - the discretionary retailers - are facing tough for change in the sector. markets. Before investing, it is important to understand not just Magazines and free-to-air TV are typically the victims of companies’ business models and balance sheets but also media fragmentation. Free-to-air TV companies like Ten their risk management and corporate governance practices. Network Holdings are facing increased competition for Media companies have certainly made the news headlines advertising from Pay TV and now face the challenge of re- over the last 12 months, although often for the wrong inventing themselves to adapt to the new fragmented media reasons. Perhaps this is not unusual given the fundamental world. challenges, exacerbated by some serious corporate In our view, Ten is in a particularly challenging vicious circle governance issues which the industry is facing. with falling TV ratings, which leads to lower advertising The core of the media business model is quite simple: offer revenue, which in turn means less money to buy compelling appealing content to attract an audience and sell the space content. In contrast, Seven West Media is outperforming to advertisers. However, areas that used to be monopolised both Channels Ten and Nine. by traditional media companies are subject to increased Pay TV has been a driver of media fragmentation and competition and there are a number of other cracks showing penetration in Australia remains relatively low compared to in the media business model. eg the US and the UK. That said, the Pay TV industry is So while advertising (and thereby revenue for media also facing competition from new technologies and needs to companies) is highly cyclical, there are several structural invest in innovation. The combined Foxtel and Austar are in changes at play, which means investors need to do their a relatively good position. homework and stay clear of potential value traps before The circulation of magazines keeps falling as much of the rushing in to take advantage of the next upswing in the content can be accessed for free online at anytime. Three advertising cycle. listed companies Fairfax Media, and Seven have exposure to magazine publishing but this exposure is very small. Radio companies Southern Cross Media Group and, to a lesser extent, Fairfax have remained relatively resilient to // 1 the ongoing media fragmentation, at least so far. However, Social media – challenging the need for advertisers to the total advertising revenue is trending downwards. go through media companies The social media sector is expected to be a game changer. Printed newspapers are facing some of the toughest While its name suggests it is the forte of media companies, conditions as media fragmentation is slowly but surely investors need to think twice before buying into the social breaking down their previous advertising monopoly areas. media strategies of media companies. While media This trend is strongly linked to the internet. companies have been quick to jump on the bandwagon, the key question remains how they are going to make money The internet – a headache for traditional media from it. Online advertising is growing relatively faster than other mediums and is forecast to continue to do so, particularly at While media companies used to be the obvious the expense of printed newspapers. However, it is also intermediary between customers and advertisers, social expected to take some market share from free-to-air TV, media enables advertisers to shift from one-way radio and cinema while Pay TV and outdoor advertising are communication to active engagement with their customers, expected to be relatively resilient. effectively circumventing the media companies. According to social research, active engagement is what consumers While the rise of online advertising should not come as a are increasingly demanding. surprise to anyone, the biggest surprise is probably the speed of this growth. Online advertising is expected to So, rather than being the next big thing for media exceed that of printed newspapers or free-to-air TV in just a companies, social media can be a significant threat to many few years as advertisers follow their customers online. companies’ earnings unless they can successfully re-invent themselves and become part of the new value chain. Advertising spend in Australia ($m) Australian media companies are at particular risk as 14,000 Australians are relatively significant users of social media in 12,000 an international perspective. 10,000 8,000 To illustrate the significance of the intensified competition 6,000 for the pool of advertising spend and the reduced reliance 4,000 on paid media for brands, consider the recent change in 2,000 Unilever’s advertising strategy. The company is planning to - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 reduce the proportion of their marketing impressions from Newspapers Magazines FTA TV Pay TV Radio Outdoor / Transport Cinema Internet paid media from 80% to 60% by 2015, while increasing that from ‘owned and earned’ media from 20% to 40%. In Source: CEASA, broker estimates Australia, Unilever is one of the top 10 single biggest advertisers. The growth in online advertising is linked to a myriad of drivers, including higher number of internet users, faster At this point we struggle to see any winners from social internet, more time spent online, better connectivity through media among the traditional Australian media companies. mobile broadband/ internet devices, such as tablets and However, we believe advertising companies such as STW smart phones, more content available online as well as Communications Group are in a good spot to help changing consumer behaviour, such as increased direct advertisers to improve their direct engagement with consumption online. customers. The trend poses a structural challenge for companies with Media convergence – increases the value of content printed newspaper operations (Fairfax, APN, Seven and ownership Newscorp), which are facing direct competition from As a response to media fragmentation, the media sector is specialised online competitors, such as realestate.com.au undergoing convergence where media companies are and carsales.com.au in areas that used to be monopolised. increasingly cross-selling advertising space to offer Newspapers have responded by establishing their own advertisers cost-effective multiple delivery platforms to specialised publications. reach their target audiences. Convergence is driven by Like other newspapers all over the world, Australian technology change, eg digitalisation and the internet as well newspapers have extended their mastheads online. as higher consumer demand for quality, customisation and However, by rushing out online without charging for their personalisation. content, newspapers are now faced with a big dilemma. Convergence means that companies that generate a high While online newspapers are cheaper to operate, the costs proportion of their own content, eg Newscorp and Seven, for printed newspapers (printing and distribution) need to be are in a relatively better position as their content can be covered. However, relying solely on online advertising broadcast over a wider range of platforms. Also, companies revenue is unlikely to suffice and convincing readers to pay that sell the advertising will have this displayed over a for content will be a big challenge. Among the daily greater audience. In contrast, buyers of content, e.g. Ten broadsheets, only The Australian (Newscorp) has dipped and Prime Media Group, need to increasingly invest to their toes in while others are waiting cautiously. The become multi-platform providers without cannibalising success rate for overseas newspapers’ paywalls is very existing advertising revenue. mixed. Digitalisation lowers production costs, which is positive for content producers. However, it also lowers the barriers to entry, for instance in the areas of news and factual content, //
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