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Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post–Fukushima: Zarrar Niazi Alternatives and Their Impact on Japan’S GHG Emission Targets

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Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post–Fukushima: Zarrar Niazi Alternatives and Their Impact on Japan’S GHG Emission Targets Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 153 Post–Fukushima: Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post–Fukushima: Zarrar Niazi Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets Zarrar Niazi Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences Master Thesis E, in Sustainable Development, 30 credits Printed at Department of Earth Sciences, Master’s Thesis Geotryckeriet, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 2013. E, 30 credits Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 153 Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post–Fukushima: Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets Zarrar Niazi Supervisor: Gloria Gallardo Evaluator: Katharina Brinkert Contents 1.0 Introduction............................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Climate Change......................................................................................................................................................1 2.0 Purpose & Methodology........................................................................................................................................8 2.1 Limitations………………………………………………………………………………………………………..8 3.0 The Case of Japan………………………………………………………………………………………………..9 3.1 Thesis Statement………………………………………………………………………………………………...10 3.2 History of Nuclear Power in Japan…………………………………………………………………………….11 3.3 Chronology of Events………………...………………………………………………………………………….11 3.4 Plant Shutdowns………...……………………………………………………………………………………….12 3.5 Public Opinion……………………………………...…………………………………………………………....14 3.6 Role of Government……………………………………………...……………………………………………...16 3.7 Impact on Environment........................................................................................................................................21 3.8 Impact on Economy..............................................................................................................................................22 4.0 New Energy Policy................................................................................................................................................25 4.1 Renewable Energy................................................................................................................................................26 4.2 450ppm Scenario..................................................................................................................................................29 5.0 The German Experience......................................................................................................................................31 6.0 Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................................34 7.0 Bibliography..........................................................................................................................................................37 Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post – Fukushima: Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets ZARRAR NIAZI NIAZI, Z., 2012: Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post – Fukushima: Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets. Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden. No. 153, 42 pp. 30 ECTS/hp. Abstract The purpose of this paper, “Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post – Fukushima: Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets”, is to emphasize that Japan’s expected new energy policy must be in accordance with its existing environmental targets with regards to GHG emissions. The main research question is how Japan can continue to meet its emissions targets in the aftermath of the Fukushima crisis, where public opinion—gauged through newspaper articles—in Japan has now become outright anti-nuclear, and Japan has become compelled to adopt a new nuclear-free energy policy built around renewable energy. However, given the extremely low share of renewable energy in Japan’s existing energy mix, an extremely pro-nuclear government, an influential energy lobby and an overall lack of suitable infrastructure; this goal does appear ambitious. The framework of analysis in this paper will be of ‘sustainable development’, entailing an analysis of the three pillars of sustainability – environment, economy and social factors. In addition to these factors, security of supply will also be considered as a vital measure to determine the policy’s overall sustainability. The paper will show that while it is indeed possible for Japan to meet its GHG emissions targets by replacing nuclear energy with renewable energy, Japan’s ability to deploy renewable energy at such a large scale remains inadequate. Through a comparison with the German experience in renewable energy, any withdrawal from nuclear energy without properly propping up renewable energy will only result in a greater shift towards primary fossil fuels – jeopardizing Japan’s emission targets, security of supply and incurring heavy import costs to its economy. The result of this analysis is to suggest measures such as an expansive Feed-in tariff system, grid integration and stability and investment in R&D as major components of a focused and long term energy policy up till 2030, to promote renewable energy. This paper will also posit steps required to improve the safety and efficiency of its nuclear reactors during the interim period when renewable energy grows in its share of Japan’s energy mix. Key words: Sustainable Development, GHG emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy, Security of Supply. Zarrar Niazi, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden. Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post – Fukushima: Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets ZARRAR NIAZI NIAZI, Z., 2012: Role of Nuclear Energy in Japan Post – Fukushima: Alternatives and their Impact on Japan’s GHG Emission Targets. Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden. No. 153, 43pp. 30 ECTS/hp. Summary In the aftermath of the Fukushima crisis in 2011, Japan has been forced to reevaluate its use of nuclear energy, especially in the face of intense opposition from the Japanese public. Japan is thus forced to explore new sources of non-nuclear renewable power to meet its energy needs. However, this move towards exploring non-nuclear sources of energy needs to be seen in the context of sustainable development and Japan’s GHG emissions environmental targets. This thesis aims to evaluate Japan’s ability to move away from nuclear energy while still meeting its GHG targets, concluding that Japan’s ability to deploy renewable energy at such a large scale remains inadequate. It is also posited that if Japan hopes to increase renewable energy, it should take measures such as an expansive feed-in tariff system, grid integration and stability and investment in R&D as major components of a focused and long term energy policy up till 2030. Key words: Sustainable Development, GHG emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy, Security of Supply. Zarrar Niazi, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden. Abbreviations AR4 Assessment Report 4 CCS Carbon Capture and Storage Co2 Carbon Dioxide FIT Feed-in Tariff GHG Greenhouse Gasses IEEJ Institute of Energy Economics Japan IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LNG Liquefied Natural Gas METI Ministry of Economy, Technology and Industry MOEJ Ministry of Environment Japan NISA Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PV Photovoltaics TAR Third Assessment Report TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Company UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change List of Tables Table Number Description Page Number Table 1 World Primary Energy Demanded by Fuel 12 Table 2 A Nuclear History of Japan 17 Table 3 Location of Japan’s Reactors (as of 2012) 19 Table 4 Closure of Plants 19 Table 5 Previous Accidents in Japan 21 Table 6 Anti-Nuclear Opinions 22 Table 7 Government debate/ stance over the future of nuclear 25 technology in Japan Table 8 Four Options for Power Generation (%) 26 Table 9 Expected Feed-in Tariff 26 Table 10 Economic Impacts Summary 29 Table 11 Renewable Energy Outlook and Projected Potential 33 List of Figures Figure Number Description Page Number Figure 1 Changes in Temperature, sea level, Northern Hemisphere 9 snow cover Figure 2 Global anthropogenic GHG emissions 11 Figure 3 Key drivers or contributors of GHG’s around the world 11 Figure 4 Greenhouse gas emissions 13 Figure 5 Japan’s Projected Electricity Mix for 2009 16 Figure 6 Grid Inter-Connectivity 35 1 1.0 Introduction A sustainable energy policy should ideally be sensitive to notions of security of supply, economic costs and environmental impacts. For a country like Japan which has very limited domestic energy sources, this is not an easy task. Japan is only 18 percent self-sufficient in terms of energy (non-nuclear self-sufficiency is only 4 percent) and the third largest net-importer of crude oil in the world. This heavy reliance on foreign sources of energy sources such as oil, coal and gas is not only expensive but also requires careful management of stocks to maintain a safe and secure supply for the economy. In addition to this, fossil fuels have major environmental
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