Munich Personal RePEc Archive March 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear disaster - impacts on Japanese agriculture and food sector Bachev, Hrabrin and Ito, Fusao Institute of Agricultural Economics, Sofia, Tohoku University, Sendai 2015 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99865/ MPRA Paper No. 99865, posted 27 Apr 2020 06:15 UTC March 2011 Earthquake, Tsunami, and Fukushima Nuclear Disaster. Impacts on Japanese Agriculture and Food Sector Hrabrin Bachev and Fusao Ito On March 11, 2011 the strongest ever recorded in Japan earthquake occurred which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in one of the world’s largest nuclear plant stations. The triple disaster has been having immense impacts on people’s life, health and property, social infrastructure, economy, policies, natural and institutional environment, etc. in the affected regions, Japan, and beyond. This book is a first attempt to present a comprehensive assessment of the multiple impacts of the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear accident on the Japanese agriculture and food sector. First, it identifies and assesses diverse impacts (radiation, displacement, health, physiological, production, economic, technological, organizational, environmental, institutional, political, direct, indirect, etc.) of the disasters including all stages (inputs supply, farming, storage, wholesaling, transportation, processing, distribution, retailing, consumption) and components (natural resources, labor, biological and material assets, intangibles, technology, production structure, finance, waste disposal, information, management) of agri-food chain, and all temporal (immediate, short-term, long-term) and spacial (local, regional, national, trans-national) scales. Next, it summarizes responses of individuals, households, farms, businesses, communities, consumers, stakeholders, and authorities as well as assesses the progress and challenges in the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. Finally, it withdraws lessons from the Japanese experiences and suggests recommendations for effective risk management in Japan and around the globe. The book is a result of long-term research cooperation between two leading experts in the area – Professor Fusao Ito, Tohoku University, Sendai and Professor Hrabrin Bachev, Institute of Agricultural Economics, Sofia. The study is based on a wide range of information from various organizations (governmental, academic, farmers, industry, international, media) as well as original experts assessments and in-deep interviews with leading experts, stakeholders, and affected agents. Findings are presented in a popular way in order to reach a larger audience of researchers, educators, students, experts, farmers, businessmen, administrators, policy makers, professionals, non-governmental and international organizations, consumers, victims, and public at large. Contents Preface ………………………………………………………………………………. 4 Introduction ………………………………………………………………………….. 7 Part 1. Overall impacts of March 2011 triple disaster …………………….. 12 Chapter 1. Description of events ………………………………………………... 12 Chapter 2. Human damages and health effects ………………………………. 32 Chapter 3. Evacuation and migration …………………………………………… 46 Chapter 4. Economic damages and impacts …………………………………... 63 Chapter 5. Environmental impact ……………………………………………… 105 Part 2. Impacts on agri-food organizations, products, markets and regulations ………………………………………………………………… 128 Chapter 6. Affected farms and agricultural resources ………………………. 128 Chapter 7. State of restoration of agricultural organizations, lands, and infrastructure ……………………………………………………………….. 149 Chapter 8. Impact on food industries …………………………………………. 197 Chapter 9. Radioactive contamination of agri-food products ………………. 205 Chapter 10. Effects on markets, consumers and international trade ……… 226 Chapter 11. Effects on food regulation and inspection system …………….. 252 Chapter 12. Farms and agri-businesses damages from nuclear accident ... 265 Part 3. Impact on agri-food production, distribution and consumption ……………………………………………………………………. 280 Chapter 13. Impact on farms number, farmland use, and agricultural employment ……………………………………………………………………… 280 Chapter 14. Impact on agricultural productions ……………………………… 287 2 Chapter 15. Impact on agricultural output and income ……………………… 305 Chapter 16. Impact on farm economy ………………………………………… 317 Chapter 17. Expert assessments on impacts and factors of March 2011 disasters …………………………………………………………………………. 342 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… 380 References ……………………………………………………………………… 389 3 Preface On March 11, 2011 the strongest ever recorded in Japan earthquake occurred (known as the Great East Japan Earthquake) which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in one of the world’s largest nuclear plant stations (Fukushima Daichi). That was the “costliest” disaster in human history and the first one that included an earthquake, a tsunami, and a nuclear power plant accident. The triple disaster has been having immense impacts on people’s life, health and property, social infrastructure, economy, policies, natural and institutional environment, etc. in the affected regions, Japan, and beyond. Almost four years after the disasters the lives of many are still to be rebuilt, and socio-economic and environmental implications of the disasters fully understood. There has been a huge public, media and experts’ interest, and a growing number of publications on the (effects, responses to, challenges associated with) 2011 disasters, including badly affected agriculture and food sector. Most information and publications are in Japanese, which make it difficult for foreigners to get a full insight on the scale and diverse implications of the disasters. Besides, there are few comprehensive studies on the overall impacts of the disasters on agri-food chains. Our motivation to write this book was to fill that gap and assess multiple impacts of the March 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster on Japanese agriculture and food sector. We have included all type of impacts (radiation, displacement, health, physiological, production, economic, technological, organizational, environmental, institutional, political, direct, indirect), all stages (inputs supply, farming, storage, wholesaling, 4 transportation, processing, distribution, retailing, consumption) and components (natural resources, labor, biological assets, material assets, intangibles, technology, production structure, finance, waste disposal, information, management) of agri-food chain, and all temporal (immediate, short-term, long-term) and spacial (local, regional, national, trans-national) scales. We have used a huge amount of data from various organizations (governmental, academic, farmers, industry, non-governmental, international, media) and original experts’ assessments and in-deep interviews with leading experts, stakeholders, and affected agents. Our goal is to present a wide range of information, stakeholders’ positions, and experts’ assessments, and summarize responses of different agents, and assess the progress and challenges in post-disaster reconstruction, and withdraw lessons for effective risk management in Japan and around the globe. Our findings are presented in an easily understandable way in order to reach a large audience of researchers, educators, students, experts, farmers, businessmen, administrators, policy makers, professionals, non-governmental and international organizations, consumers, victims, and public at large. This book is a result of long-term research cooperation between us, which started in 2012. It presents the current findings of a “study in progress” giving international readers a “better” picture about the agri-food chain implications of the March 2011 disasters. We are aware that the final assessments are difficult and require multidisciplinary, large team and long- term efforts due to the scales of the disasters, the numbers of affected agents, the effects’ multiplicities, spillovers, and a long time horizon, the nuclear crisis constant evolution, the post disaster reconstruction challenges, the lack of “full” information and models of analysis, etc. We would like to express our gratitude to the Japan Foundation for funding this project and cooperation, and Tohoku University for hosting this 5 research. We also want to thank all individuals and organizations providing valuable information and expertise as well as all participants in the expert assessments and interviews. We are enormously thankful to LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing for giving us the extraordinary opportunity to present our work to the larger world audience. Hrabrin Bachev and Fusao Ito Sendai, January 15, 2015 Fusao Ito and Hrabrin Bachev, Fukushima, May 2013 6 Introduction On March 11, 2011 the strongest recorded in Japan earthquake off the Pacific coast of North-east of the country occurred (also known as the Great East Japan Earthquake, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and the 3.11 Earthquake) which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Plant Station. It was the first disaster that included an earthquake, a tsunami, and a nuclear power plant accident. The triple 2011 disaster has had immense impacts on people life, health and property, social infrastructure and economy, natural and institutional environment, etc. in North-eastern Japan and beyond [Abe, 2014; Al­Badri and Berends, 2013; Biodiversity Center of Japan, 2013; Britannica,