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Situation Report #3 March 15, 2011 5PM Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

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Situation Report #3 March 15, 2011 5PM Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Situation Report #3 March 15, 2011 5PM Japan Earthquake and Tsunami A 9.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in Japan on 11 Mar 2011 at 12.46.23 EST (USGS), followed by several aftershocks and triggering a powerful tsunami of more than 10m. Three explosions have been confirmed in the nuclear power plant Fukushima till now. The following impacts are reported from various sources: 3,100 persons have died, another 1,885 persons are injured and more than 15,000 persons are missing. These figures are feared to rise as rescue and relief operations are going on. 416,300 people have been evacuated from the tsunami and earthquake affected areas and are being sheltered in 2,050 evacuation centers. Initial loss estimates range between USD 15 billion and USD 35 billion. 3,385 buildings are destroyed and another 55,000 damaged by the earthquake and tsunami. Essential services such as electricity, gas and water remain disrupted, with more than 843,000 households facing power shortages and over 1.4 million households going without water. Technical background and parametric data A 9.0 magnitude earthquake occurred 11 Mar 2011 in Japan at 05.46.23 UTC (USGS), followed by several aftershocks and triggering a powerful tsunami that reached the coast 30 minutes after the event, with waves up to 10 meters tall on the northeast coast. It occurred about 70-80 kilometers off the coast of Honshu, 373 km northeast of Tokyo at a shallow depth of 24 km. It was the largest earthquake since recordkeeping in Japan began and the fifth strongest ever recorded. The worst affected areas are the prefectures along the north-eastern coast, including Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibraki and Chiba. Large coastal areas have been submerged and entire villages washed away. Government and International Response The Japanese government has mobilized specialized agencies and 100,000 troops for relief and rescue efforts across central and northern parts of the country. 102 countries have offered support to Japan. 15 international teams are already on ground to support the Government response. These include Australia, Germany, France, New Zealand, USA, People’s Republic of China, Taiwan, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland, UK and Turkey. Apart from rescue and salvage, food, drinking water, blankets, latrines, fuel and medical items for the affected population remain the main challenges. Nuclear Emergency On March 15, the nuclear reactor emergency deteriorated significantly with a third explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant exposing nuclear fuel rods for several hours. Within three hours the amount of radiation at the plant rose to 163 times the previously recorded level, according to Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency. According to latest IAEA readings, the radiations levels have fallen since the explosion. The Government has ordered a no-fly zone 30 km around the plant and expanded to 30 km the range within which people should remain indoors and warned that further leaks are possible. 1 On March 13, following an explosion at reactor No. 3 at Fukushima, radiation levels were said to have reached 400 times the "annual legal limit". Subsequently, a fire erupted at reactor No. 4 of the plant and a hydrogen explosion occurred at No. 4 reactor as well. A US expert team is supporting Japanese counterparts in dealing with the nuclear crisis. On 12 March there was an explosion at the Fukushima reactor no. 1 which triggered the declaration of a state of nuclear emergency and a mass evacuation of people located within 20 km of the Fukushima nuclear power facility. The explosions have been caused by the hydrogen buildup which blew the concrete building housing. Officials flooded the reactor with seawater in an effort to avoid a reactor core meltdown, but that a partial meltdown may have already occurred. Damage and loss information Based on currently available information, AIR estimates that insured property losses from Friday's earthquake will range between 1.2 trillion JPY to 2.8 trillion JPY (March 12). This translates to a range of between USD 15 billion and USD 35 billion1. Equecat, a risk consultancy, estimated over the weekend that the economic losses from this earthquake would total more than $100bn. Around the northern coastal region of Tohoku, the Government reported that 2,852 buildings were destroyed and over 40,000 damaged either by earthquakes, tsunami or fire. The tsunami waves caused the greatest destruction; and an estimated 5,000 houses remain inundated with water in Iwate. In Sendai city of Miyagi 2,700 houses have been washed away, and 1,800 houses destroyed in Fukushima. The number of houses destroyed is also expected to increase as Government assessment teams gain access. The damage to infrastructure is significant. The National Police Agency’s latest assessment reports 827 roads, 47 bridges, and seven railways damaged. On March 15, 128 roades and 29 bridges have been restored for traffic. Transportation systems remain paralyzed. Communication is down for more than 20,000 people in Minami-Sanriku-cho and Matsuyama of Miyagai prefecture, as well as Otsuchi in Iwate Prefecture. The earthquake has also triggered multiple fires throughout Honshu. Japan's Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA) reported a total of 193 fires spawned by the earthquake, 56 of which have been extinguished. More than 50 fires were reported in Miyagi prefecture alone, among them a fire in an oil refinery. In Tokyo prefecture, 20 fires were reported. A large fire, with flames shooting in excess of 30 meters (100 feet) in the air, is burning at the Cosmo oil refinery in Ichihara City in Chiba Prefecture near Tokyo after an unknown number of storage tanks exploded. Dozens of additional fires were reported in northern prefectures of Fukushima, Sendai, Iwate and Ibaraki after gas lines exploded. Both the electrical and transportation infrastructures have also been heavily affected. Due to the outage of the nuclear power plants, controlled power outages began on March 11 in Tokyo and elsewhere. Power shortages would be prolonged as about half of Japan’s nuclear reactors will have to be inspected, reducing the nation’s power generating capacity by 15%. The Government is trying to cover the shortfall by running gas power plants that are usually used only for peak loads to offset the base load shortfall. Telecommunications (including mobile phone service) has been virtually shut off as mobile networks were downed. In terms of transportation, many sections of the Tohoku Expressway serving northern Japan were severely damaged. Tokyo’s main Narita International Airport and its secondary Haneda Airport were both closed and passengers were quickly evacuated. Media footage from Sendai’s airport showed cars, trucks, buses and thick mud deposited over its runways. At the one-year-old Ibaraki Airport in the city of Omitama in Ibaraki Prefecture, a large section of the main terminal ceiling 1 AIR's loss estimates reflect insured shake and fire-following damage to onshore residential and commercial buildings and contents, and to properties in AIR's agricultural line of business. They are net of Japan Earthquake Reinsurance (JER) recoveries. They do not include demand surge. 2 collapsed to the ground. Ports along coastal sections have also sustained major flood inundation. Underground subway trains and Shinkanzen (bullet train) service was also halted throughout the country. Financial implications The whole northeastern region of Tohoku accounts for about 8 per cent of the Japanese economy. With hundreds of factories shut across Japan, power and water blackouts, some economists predict that the disaster would push the country into recession. The huge cost of rebuilding the affected areas will push up Japan's public debt, which is already the largest among advanced economies. Earthquake insurance penetration in Japan is relatively low (ranging between 14 to 17 percent nationwide). About 70% of all residential construction is estimated to be of wood and about 25% of concrete. Commercial construction consists of more than 50% concrete, about one-third light metal or steel, and less than 10% wood. Several insurance experts have said that the Fukushima nuclear power plant operator, Tokyo Eclectic Power Co., will be responsible for any clean-up costs associated with radiation contamination, but that insurance is likely to have been purchased by the company directly from the Japanese government. Analysts said one of the Bank of Japan's priorities was to advance "soft" loans to commercial banks to make sure they do not run out of cash as customers in the affected areas rush to withdraw savings. The central bank is expected to flood money markets with more cash than usual, partly to stop the yen from rising too much. Catastrophe bond payouts are possible but no information is currently available. Asian stock markets have taken a serious beating in the post-disaster selloff. Bank of Japan released JPY 7 trillion (USD 86 billion) into the economy to shore up the sentiment on March 13. Bank response President Zoellick and the EAP Vice President James Adams have expressed their condolences and offered Bank’s fullest support. This could include knowledge and support exchange missions following the humanitarian phase. GFDRR and EAP DRM teams are closely monitoring the developing situation in real-time. It reviewed the situation and possible response options on March 11. GFDRR is on maximum alert for immediate rapid response through Bank’s Quick Reaction Team (QRT) and DRM Global Expert Team (GET). The Head of GFDRR is currently in Beijing and would be moving to Tokyo for consultations with Government counterparts at the earliest. Bank-GFDRR has already commenced liaison with counterpart Ministries in the Government of Japan on possible areas of support to Japan include coordination of international assistance, knowledge exchange on disaster damage and loss data management, damage and loss assessment, relocation expertise, reconstruction performance management and risk assessment, reduction and transfer solutions.
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