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Chapter 4. China and Yamal Lng

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Chapter 4. China and Yamal Lng Table of Contents ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………………....4 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 1. RUSSIAN-CHINESE COOPERATION IN OIL BUSINESS .......................... 9 Russian-Chinese Trade: Oil & Oil products ............................................................................................................. 9 Russian-Chinese Contracts: crude oil supply ......................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 2. RUSSIA-CHINA COOPERATION IN COAL BUSINESS ............................ 17 Russian-Chinese Trade: Thermal & Coking coal ................................................................................................... 17 Russian-Chinese Contracts: Coal supply ................................................................................................................ 21 CHAPTER 3. RUSSIA-CHINA COOPERATION IN GAS BUSINESS ............................... 24 CHAPTER 4. CHINA AND YAMAL LNG .............................................................................. 29 CHAPTER 5. CHINESE COMPANIES ENTER SIBUR ....................................................... 32 CHAPTER 6. CHINA'S POLICY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE .............. 34 CHAPTER 7. CHINA PARTICIPATES IN OFFSHORE PROJECTS IN RUSSIA ........... 37 CHAPTER 7.1 CHINA’S PARTICIPATION IN OTHER ENERGY PROJECTS IN RUSSIA ........................................................................................................................................ 38 CHAPTER 8. SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT ..................................................................... 40 CHAPTER 9. DYNAMICS OF RUSSIA-CHINA ECONOMIC RELATIONS ................... 44 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................ 52 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………………………....54 1 Abstract The report deals with the status of Russia-China relations, primarily economic ones. The main task is to understand how economic co-operation with China develops (primarily in the energy sector), what it is based on and motivated by, how sincere the U-turn to the East is, and whether Russia is doomed to constant switching of its geopolitical priorities from the Western to the East and back. It is important to analyse if Russia is being able to follow a harmonious Eurasian policy when its relations develop with both its Western and Eastern neighbours. The significance and timeliness of this study is obvious: today the future of the global economy and global politics depends to a considerable extent on China’s development. In turn, very important to China is co-operation with Russia. It is a source of reliable supply of energy resources and other raw materials; a significant element of supply chains in the defence industry; an important territory in terms of transport logistics; a market; and an opportunity for investment. Therefore, development of co-operation between Russia and China is a topic of interest not only to these two countries by any means. This is not to mention the fact that particularly the neighbours of Russia and China would like to understand what their partnership will lead to in the medium term. How sincere and long-term it is. Today Russia-China relations are in a very important point. On the one hand, the events of 2014 when the US and Western Europe introduced sanctions against Russia made Moscow count on accelerating co-operation with China. But on the other, Trump’s victory in the US presidential election brought hope for normalisation of relations with the West because it is China that he openly considers the main geopolitical opponent of the US. Debate began in Russia at once over whether Trump will make Russia some offers concerning China and whether they should be accepted. In any case, everyone understands that Russia is an important country to Trump exactly because of the need to develop new policy towards China. However, it is in any case extremely important that Russia’s relations with China develop to a great extent not by themselves, but specifically under the influence of the West. When the West exerts pressure on Russia, Moscow tries to step up co-operation with China, exactly as a reaction. Even in the energy sector, the U-turn to the East began when the EU, historically the main market for Russian energy resources, announced the need to diversify supply of energy resources. In response, Russia dramatically intensified negotiations with China on oil and gas supply. A system of oil pipelines to the east was built and today Russia is the largest supplier of oil to China. The latter, in turn, is the world’s number one oil importer. The construction of a trunk gas pipeline to China is in full swing now and a new LNG project on the Yamal Peninsula, oriented towards China among other markets, is expected to start operating in 2017. However, the energy projects in the east of Russia would not develop at such a rate if Europe had not been set against expansion of the energy dialogue with Russia for political reasons. The report is based on Russian and Chinese official economic and customs statistics; information from reports published by Russian think tanks also dealing with the problem of Russia-China relations; reports by Russian companies trading with China; data published by the International Energy Agency and other international entities specialising in energy matters; and publicly available media reports. Chapter 1 presents an analysis of trade in oil and petroleum products between Russia and China. It describes the structure of Russian export of oil and petroleum products and gives an idea of the role China plays in it. The report discusses competition between Russia and other oil suppliers to the Chinese market, primarily Saudi Arabia and African countries. It shows what has enabled Russia to outstrip its competitors and become the leading oil exporter to China. The history of oil contracts between Russia and China is described in detail and the volumes and terms of supply are presented. The chapter also analyses the structure of Chinese demand based on an analysis of the condition of the Chinese refining sector. Chapter 2 studies supply of Russian coal to China. It contains the structure of coking and steam coal import from Russia and provides an understanding of the share of the Chinese 2 market. Steam coal accounts for virtually 90% of Russian supply, therefore the analysis focuses primarily on this type of coal. Russia’s competition with other suppliers is discussed as well as the structure of Russian contracts and the main Russian companies selling coal to China. The focus of attention in Chapter 3 is co-operation between Russia and China in the gas sector, first of all in terms of supply of gas by pipeline. The chapter describes in detail the negotiations on both the western and eastern routes of gas supply to China. The details of the 2014 contract and the reasons why it was successfully signed are explained. The Power of Siberia project is described: its volume, deadlines, and supply sources. The difficulties of the western route are explained, including an analysis of the geographical distribution of demand for gas in China and competition on the part of Central Asian gas. The chapter also considers opportunities for gas supply to China from Sakhalin. Chapter 4 is dedicated to the Yamal LNG project which must bring Russian liquefied gas from the Yamal Peninsula to the Chinese market. It describes the support given to the project by the state; the acquisition of a stake in the project by Chinese companies; the key difficulties faced by Yamal LNG which will nonetheless send the first tanker with LNG to a foreign market in 2017. Chapter 5 describes the major investment of Chinese companies in Russian petrochemistry, primarily the purchase of a stake in Sibur. You will find in it a detailed Sibur ownership structure and the history of relations between its shareholders and Chinese corporations. Chapter 6 describes both China’s policy towards the Northern Sea Route and the Russian side’s efforts to develop the project. One can learn from it what interest China has in developing this transport route and how quickly Russia can reanimate this artery the use of which began as far back as the USSR period. It also gives an idea about the condition of the Russian icebreaker fleet and the programme to develop it. Chapters 6 and 7 are dedicated to Chinese investment in Russian energy projects: one can learn from it about Chinese corporations’ acquisitions both in energy projects on the continental shelf and in onshore production projects. Chapter 8 analyses the Silk Road Economic Belt project. Russia’s participation in new schemes for freight deliveries from China to Europe and development of high-speed rail communications in Russia with the participation of Chinese companies is a debatable and important subject. Chapter 9 deals with the overall status and dynamics of Russia-China economic relations. One can learn from it the trade balance structure: it describes in detail both export from Russia to China and export of Chinese goods to Russia. There is an obvious imbalance in trade: hydrocarbons account for over 60% of Russian export. Meanwhile, mechanical engineering and textile products play the key role in import from China. At the same time, this structure indicates that the two economies are complementary,
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