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The Illusion of Control Ready to Tip Some Sacred Cows?

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The Illusion of Control Ready to Tip Some Sacred Cows? Spring 2016 ▲ Vol. 6 Issue 1 ▲ Produced and distributed quarterly by the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center The Illusion of Control Ready to tip some sacred cows? By Travis Dotson n the wildland fire service, we suffer from an “Illusion of Control”. This illusion is so pervasive it’s never even acknowledged, let alone discussed. The ever I present assumption that complete control is possible puts us in a constant cognitive struggle to make sense of the frequent evidence to the contrary. We are not in control of the elements influencing fire, we are not in control of the other humans influencing our situation, and we are not even in control of our own perception of what the situation is. In spite of all this uncertainty, as we step into this dynamic and complex environment, we convince ourselves we are in control of our own safety. This unconscious self-deception—the illusion of control—is feeding our well-intentioned efforts to “get better” at our current way of doing things. What if we dropped the illusion and accepted all the instances in which we gamble? Could this acknowledgment provide a new perspective on when and where we are willing and not willing to take chances in this line of work? Maybe. In spite of all this uncertainty, as we step into this Good old Wikipedia says: “The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events.” Notice that the illusion stems dynamic and complex environment, we convince from overestimating one’s ability to control. This is an important distinction. ourselves we are in control of our own safety. Complicating the matter, Wikipedia goes on to inform: “The illusion is more common in familiar situations, and in situations where the person knows the desired outcome.” I am rather familiar with the fire line. When I’m there I know what the desired outcome is. If I come upon a stretch of line dotted with sketchy leaner snags I tell myself to be “super heads-up” when I walk through. If I scramble down that piece of dirt and don’t get smashed—especially if a snag creaks and wobbles and I pick up the pace—when I’m back at the truck I can give myself credit for surviving (overestimating the extent of my control). But let’s face it, I was just rolling the dice. And I got lucky. Sticks and Stones For the most part, we accept the gambling involved with heavy things falling down onto us. Tops of trees and granite masses of multiple sizes whiz by us on a fairly regular basis. When someone does get mangled by forest shrapnel, we typically attribute this to “wrong place/wrong time”—which means chance (bad luck). [Continued on Page 3] In this Issue Changing the Way You Think About “Zero” Page 2 Four Receive Paul Gleason Lead By Example Award Page 7 Jeremy Bailey: Promoting a Prescribed Fire Workforce Page 8 YOUR FEEDBACK Page – Our readers speak out Page 13 1 Ground By Travis Dotson Fire Management Specialist Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center Truths [email protected] The Problem with Zero t’s the latest cool guy thing to complain about, it’s “impossible to be surprised by fire if you have LCES in along with skinny jeans, smart phones, and place”. Of course, the only way to measure this is to wait I drones—in the catch-all category of “kids these until an entrapment occurs and then use the entrapment days”. (“Get off my lawn!”) Oh how we love to rail as proof of inadequate LCES. Circular reasoning at its against the goal of Zero fatalities and what it finest. illustrates. Why Can’t We Do It? Get any two Ops-Nazis (Opsies?) with dirty Nomex Back to the question: If the goal is altered from Zero together and you can have hours of perfectly pleasant fatalities to Zero entrapments, do you now support it? conversation about overtime and ridiculous conjecture Probably not, because something deep down tells you this about the certain enormity of fire season somewhere. isn’t possible either. But drop the “Zero” turd and the punch bowl gets After all, there is the data—by which I mean the absence punchy. Eyes roll immediately. Heads shake. Well- of an entrapment-less fire season. My point is, if it’s as easy as LCES, practiced snorts escape nostrils. why can’t we do it? “It’s just not possible!” “This job is inherently dangerous!” The answer to that is “them”: The bad firefighter who can’t seem to “It’s just like driving a car . .” get LCES right. OK, if that’s the case, why do we have so many of “them”? I’ve participated in my fair share of that predictable public performance, but lately I can’t stomach it. Even with our haphazard reporting, in just the past 25 years we have recorded over 130 entrapment incidents (nearly twice the number I can’t help but notice the irony of our well-scripted tirades. For, in of “Hit by Tree” incidents) involving more than 800 individuals. the very next breath, we switch gears right into how we need to That’s quite a few sisters and brothers to write off as bad apples. “get back to basics”. This is code for old-timer fuzzy math which goes like this: Even more telling than these numbers are I’m a good firefighter + I’ve never been the individuals. I have a hard time believing entrapped = Entrapments are entirely I’m a better firefighter than Dave Ruhl, avoidable. Mark Loutzenhiser, Rick Lupe, or countless other dialed-in folks who’ve seen the flames This perspective would support the notion close over them. that zero entrapments is possible—just be good. So the next time you roll your eyes at “Zero” and start to robotically repeat the What if the Goal was Zero Entrapments? “inherently dangerous” line, include In the debate over Zero, the distinction no entrapments in the “inevitable” category. one is talking about is fatalities vs And believe it, because as long as we entrapments. When we get angry about the anchor, flank, and pinch, it’s gonna happen. unrealistic nature of the golden goose egg in the sky, what we cite is all the instances of death from above Change the Way You Think (trees and rocks), vehicle accidents, and the apparently inevitable What does this mean for you? It means change the way you think. phenomena of big machines falling out of the sky and rolling down This will change the way you talk. Changing the way we talk will alter hillsides. Those are the losses we point to as unavoidable. But what young firefighters hear. entrapment? That’s just bad firefighting. Bad decision-making. Bad deciders. The way we currently do business, entrapments are normal outcomes—just like fatal trees, rocks, and rollovers. Acknowledging So what if we kept Zero but changed the goal? this permits our youth to imagine a different approach. What if the goal was Zero entrapments? Is it any different now? Do Who knows, it could even move us toward Zero. you all of a sudden cheer and stomp with support? After all, it’s so simple. Just make damn sure you have LCES in place. I’ve been told Think Change, Toolswingers. 2 [Continued from Page 1] To be realistic, on any given day it’s a good bet to go into the woods with the expectation of not getting hit by a tree or rock, but it’s still a bet. Now, enter all the elements we typically face: fire weakened trees, wind, compromised root systems, bug kill, poor visibility, tough ground, etc. The odds get worse, but then we “mitigate” right? Send fallers in ahead of time, set a wind speed threshold, avoid really bad areas, etc. Being anywhere in there is still a gamble. We don’t even need to go into any detail about rocks. If there’s slope and chunks of solid mineral material, gravity does its finest work and we just cross our fingers and stay “super heads up”. Again, with trees and rocks, most of us accept the fact that we’re rolling the dice. We are instructed to believe that our own ability to “keep our head on a swivel” is solely responsible for our continued existence, which further escalates our commitment to the illusion of control. Entrapped By Our Beliefs We love to rail against the goal of “zero fatalities” and drone on and on about the “inherently dangerous” nature of our business. But right out of the other side of our mouth comes a long list of things that can “guarantee” us not being entrapped by fire. Ready to tip some sacred cows? I’m not saying all the advice dispensed in the long list of lists isn’t helpful. I’m just saying we need to acknowledge all the assumptions that are baked into them. Let’s go right to the king of the lists: The Ten Standard Fire Orders Assumption One: All of these actions are POSSIBLE (within our control). Have you ever KNOWN what your fire was doing at ALL times? Think of all the simple and complex ways you have been surprised by fire. Assumption Two: Humans are capable of flawless performance (it’s possible to get everything right all the time). When I’m not thinking clearly due to the carbon monoxide in my brain from the smoke I’ve been living in for a week without adequate rest and extreme physical exertion, having a list tell me to “think clearly” doesn’t remedy the situation.
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