UNDERSTANDING VIOLENT CONFLICT: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TAJIKISTAN AND UZBEKISTAN Idil Tuncer Kilavuz Submitted to the faculty of the University Graduate School in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Central Eurasian Studies, Indiana University August 2007 UMI Number: 3278200 Copyright 2007 by Tuncer Kilavuz, Idil All rights reserved. UMI Microform 3278200 Copyright 2007 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346 Accepted by the Graduate Faculty, Indiana University, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. __________________________ William Fierman, Ph.D. __________________________ Gardner Bovington Doctoral Committee __________________________ Henry E. Hale __________________________ Nazif Shahrani April 16, 2007 ii © 2007 Idil Tuncer Kilavuz ALL RIGHTS RESERVED iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I have to thank a lot of people for the help, support and encouragement that they gave so generously during the planning, research, and writing stages of this project—both during my studies in Turkey and the United States, and during my field research in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Since these amount to hundreds of people altogether, I unfortunately cannot name everyone. Also now, at the end of a difficult and hectic process of dissertation-writing, I am afraid that I will probably forget someone that I should have named. In any case I am, and always will be, truly grateful for their help. I would like to start by thanking my professors in the Political Science Department of Marmara University, which I entered as an undergraduate, and in which I am proud (and fortunate) to now teach as a lecturer. First, Gunay Goksu Ozdogan gave me invaluable guidance during my studies there. I received from her my initial education on how to do research: how to ask questions, look for answers, and write papers. Her encouragement and support while I was away from home was very touching. Busra Ersanli’s marvelous classes on Central Asia, together with the passion and generosity with which she shares her knowledge, inspired my interest in the region. She too was very supportive and encouraging throughout my undergraduate and graduate years. I owe special thanks to Ayhan Aktar, who encouraged me to pursue a Ph.D. in the US. I am grateful to him for his support and confidence in me and my work, which I would never have attempted without his encouragement. Sule Kut and Gencer Ozcan, outstanding former members of the Marmara University faculty, also inspired me during my studies. I learned a lot from all these professors. They were true mentors as well as friends, and I am thoroughly grateful to them. They inspired me to teach. I will be happy if I can be half as good a teacher and researcher. Also I would like to thank my friend and colleague Erhan Dogan for all his encouragement. When I had doubts as to whether I would ever be able to finish this project, he believed in me, and made me believe in myself. iv I was very fortunate in having wonderful professors in the US as well. First, I’d like to thank the chair of my dissertation committee, William Fierman. He served as my advisor throughout my graduate studies at Indiana University, and was always there to help. He was very generous in sharing his knowledge of Central Asia and its people. His support during my research in Uzbekistan was extremely significant. He carefully read these chapters, and his invaluable comments helped me to clarify my arguments. He provided wonderful editorial support as well. Without him, this project would have been impossible. I am also grateful to Nazif Shahrani. I learned a lot from him during my graduate studies at IU, and his comments greatly benefited this dissertation. He taught me to pay attention to empirical details, to carefully listen to and report what people say, and (most importantly) to constantly ask questions and pursue answers. The input of Henry Hale during my graduate studies, and during this project, was enormous. He taught me to think in terms of scientific puzzles, and ways to solve them. He always reminded me to think about the broader theoretical implications of this project. I am grateful to Gardner Bovington for serving on my committee. His invaluable insights, comments, and ideas helped this dissertation a lot. During my field research in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, I greatly benefited from the contributions of many people in the region. It is very unfortunate that I cannot name them, but I am sure they understand that I acknowledge them and their support. It is no exaggeration to say that without their help, this dissertation would have been very different, and perhaps would not have been written at all. I owe many thanks to friends and colleagues in various universities, institutes and research centers in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. They had long discussions with me about their countries; helped me to better understand the politics and society of the region; helped me arrange interviews with political leaders; hosted me in their homes (and made me feel at home); helped me during my journeys, and through various difficulties in the field; showed concern for me when I was late in returning from an v interview, or visiting a place they considered dangerous; and also fed me with delicious Central Asian meals. I miss them and their countries, and would like to go back again very much. I consider them my families in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and will always be indebted to them. I am also grateful to all those who assisted me in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan—for example by helping me arrange interviews, or traveling with me to difficult, distant regions of their countries. My fellow IU graduate students Halim Kara and Yilmaz Bingol (now teaching at different universities in Turkey) are wonderful friends and brilliant colleagues that anyone would be blessed to have. I am grateful to them for their friendship, support, encouragement and academic inspiration. I am grateful to another IU graduate student, David Bell, for his friendship in Bloomington, and for helping to edit this dissertation. Thanks also to Emily Kara for being such a good friend, and for supporting me during the dissertation-writing stage. She too helped edit this dissertation, for which I owe her special thanks. This dissertation was in a very different shape before Emily and David contributed their superb editorial skills. Micah Aki, another IU graduate student, was a great friend and great companion to have in Bloomington. I am grateful to many other people whom I met in Bloomington, and who became lifelong friends. Kadir Cakmak and Erica Vagedes are truly the most wonderful friends that one can have. Their support, encouragement, and friendship were outstanding during my stay in Bloomington. I consider myself very lucky to have met Tuba and Tohan Hazinedar and Gunsel Bingol during my studies in Indiana University. Whenever my studies became too stressful, Tuba’s cheerful personality would remind me of the joyful side of the world. Tohan was always there to help when I needed, and I am thankful to Gunsel for her friendship and generous nature. vi It was great to have the company of brilliant and enthusiastic colleagues in the field. I was very lucky to meet Ebru Erdem in Tashkent. I am also grateful to my friend Thomas Welsford, a fellow graduate student in IU who was also in Tashkent during my fieldwork there. Looking back on our discussions of our projects and difficulties, I greatly enjoyed the cheerful conversations that we had together. They were great companions and great friends. I would also like to thank April Younger, Indiana University’s CEUS Department Secretary, who was great at supporting me in technical and administrative matters. She was always there to help me, and always had solutions and answers to my questions. Special thanks go to my husband, Mehmet Kilavuz, who was very supportive during my graduate studies in Indiana University, and during the dissertation-writing process. I am grateful to him for his love, trust, and encouragement, and for being such a good husband. Mehmet was truly great during the ups and downs of this project. I also want to thank our son, Mustafa Mert (who was born during the writing stage), for being the great little guy that he is. If not for their patience and understanding, I know that it would have been much, much harder to finish this project. Finally I would like to thank my parents, Sema and Aygun Tuncer, for their constant love, support, and confidence. They helped me in every way possible during life, and encouraged my studies—all the way from primary school, to this last step of the education ladder. At last I understand that raising a child is the most difficult undertaking in the world. I hope I can be as good as a parent to my child as they were to me. I dedicate this dissertation to them. Idil Tuncer Kilavuz Bloomington, Indiana, April 2007 vii Idil Tuncer Kilavuz UNDERSTANDING VIOLENT CONFLICT: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TAJIKISTAN AND UZBEKISTAN This dissertation asks how we can explain the occurrence of civil war in Tajikistan and, contrary to what the theories and explanations of violent conflict in the literature lead us to expect, its absence in Uzbekistan. The factors cited in the literature on violent conflict in general and on the Tajikistan civil war in particular as the causes of violent conflict were present both in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, nevertheless only the latter experienced civil war.