Climate Change and Hungary: Mitigating the Hazard and Preparing for the Impacts (The “Vahava” Report)
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUNGARY: MITIGATING THE HAZARD AND PREPARING FOR THE IMPACTS (THE “VAHAVA” REPORT) Budapest 2010 vvahava-2010-12.inddahava-2010-12.indd BB11 22010.12.08.010.12.08. 111:26:251:26:25 The VAHAVA Report is the outcome of the VAHAVA Project, which was implemented in the period of 2003-2006 with some follow-up activities during 2007-2008. The basic objective of the Project was the synthetisation of the scientifi c results on the climate change hazard, assessment of its impacts in our region, and the science-based national mitigation and adaptation response policy options. Edited by TIBOR FARAGÓ, ISTVÁN LÁNG, LÁSZLÓ CSETE The VAHAVA Report is based on the contributions of the following experts: István LÁNG (Foreword) Tibor FARAGÓ (1. International climate policy cooperation and Hungary) Judit BARTHOLY and Rita PONGRÁCZ (2. Climate change scenarios for the Carpathian Basin) István LÁNG (3. The “VAHAVA” project) Gábor VIDA (4. Nature conservation and the climatic factors) Kornél HARKÁNYI (5. Water management and climate change) Márton JOLÁNKAI (6. Agriculture, soil management and climate change) György VÁRALLYAY (7. Soil functions, soil management and the climatic factors) Ernő FÜHRER (8. Forestry and climate change) Tamás JÁSZAY (9. Energy and climate change) Bálint PETRÓ (10. Architecture: climatic impacts and response measures) Katalin TÁNCZOS (11. Traffi c, transportation and the climatic factors) Anna PÁLDY (12. Health, health protection and the climatic factors) Ágnes SALLAY (13. Climate change and tourism) István BUKOVICS (14. Tasks of catastrophe defence in light of global climate change) László CSETE (15. Creating reserves) Zoltán DEZSÉNY (16. Insurance implications of climate change) Viktória SZIRMAI (17. Climate-conscious thinking and the Hungarian society) Ferenc LIGETVÁRI (18. Climate change and the tasks in research and development) Zsolt HARNOS (19. Climate change and risk) János SZLÁVIK and Mária CSETE (20. Climate change and economics of rehabilitation and reconstruction) Miklós ZÁGONI (21. The national strategy on climate change) The editors express their gratitude to Géza Jolánkai for preparation of the English version of several chapters of this publication. ISBN vvahava-2010-12.inddahava-2010-12.indd BB22 22010.12.08.010.12.08. 111:26:321:26:32 CONTENTS FOREWORD ............................................................................................................................ 3 1. INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY COOPERATION AND HUNGARY .............4 2. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE CARPATHIAN BASIN ..................... 12 3. THE “VAHAVA” PROJECT ...........................................................................................22 4. NATURE CONSERVATION AND THE CLIMATIC FACTORS ................................ 27 5. WATER MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................... 32 6. AGRICULTURE, SOIL MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE ......................38 7. SOIL FUNCTIONS, SOIL MANAGEMENT AND THE CLIMATIC FACTORS ..... 46 8. FORESTRY AND CLIMATE CHANGE .......................................................................50 9. ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ...........................................................................55 10. ARCHITECTURE: CLIMATIC IMPACTS AND RESPONSE MEASURES ..............61 11. TRAFFIC, TRANSPORTATION AND THE CLIMATIC FACTORS .........................66 12. HEALTH, HEALTH PROTECTION AND THE CLIMATIC FACTORS .................... 70 13. CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM .........................................................................76 14. TASKS OF CATASTROPHE DEFENCE IN LIGHT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE .........................................................................................................................82 15. CREATING RESERVES ............................................................................................... 85 16. INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...........................................89 17. CLIMATE-CONSCIOUS THINKING AND THE HUNGARIAN SOCIETY ............94 18. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE TASKS IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT .. 100 19. CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISK ................................................................................104 20. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECONOMICS OF REHABILITATION AND RECONSTRUCTION .......................................................................................... 109 21. THE NATIONAL STRATEGY ON CLIMATE CHANGE .........................................114 22. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS ............................................................................118 vvahava-2010-12.inddahava-2010-12.indd 1 22010.12.08.010.12.08. 111:26:321:26:32 vvahava-2010-12.inddahava-2010-12.indd 2 22010.12.08.010.12.08. 111:26:321:26:32 FOREWORD Climatic variability and the occurrence of various extreme meteorological and hydrometeorological events had always their signifi cant imprints on socio-economic activities and the natural systems in the Carpathian basin. According to observations, the number and intensity of these extreme events have increased for the recent decades. Such a tendency could be detected especially for droughts, fl oods, heavy rainfalls and heat waves. Concerning the longer-term tendencies, there is a clear increasing trend in the annual average surface temperatures detectable from the beginning of the systematic observations in the region. These tendencies well coincide with the regional characteristics derived from the climate change scenarios, which are developed by means of various global and regional climate models. The research community called attention long ago to the hazard of global climate change, its man-made factors and its potential adverse implications. Based on the scientifi c results, high-level decisions-makers agreed on initial measures in order to cope with this hazard and adopted a framework convention on climate change in 1992 with the subsequent Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The latter one included concrete emission control commitments for the developed countries. After acceding to the European Union, Hungary fulfi ls the relevant national mitigation policies by taking into account the specifi c Community instruments, such as the EU’s emission trading scheme (by specifying emission quotas for various installations), provisions regulating the use of renewable energy sources etc. Mitigation measures should be set and implemented for quite many economic sectors, for instance, for energy management (both production and consumption), transport, industry, agriculture, forestry (in terms of its carbon sequestration capacity). Besides mitigation approach, it is already unavoidable to make preparations for adaptation to the anticipated changing environmental conditions. It is essential also for many sectors, which are especially vulnerable to the impacts of the above-mentioned extreme events; these include for example water management, agriculture, forestry, health. Obviously, these measures can be implemented effi ciently only if their interrelations are taken into consideration and there are also proper mechanisms for coordination. In June 2003 the Hungarian Ministry for the Environment and Water Management and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences have launched a joint research project under the title of “Global climate change, Hungarian impacts and responses”. The name “VAHAVA” of this project is an abbreviation of the Hungarian fi rst letters of the key words ”Changes-Impacts- Responses” (VÁltozás-HAtás-VÁlaszadás). The primary purpose of this endeavour was to consolidate the scientifi c basis for policy-making in context of the climate change hazard. The project mobilized the experts representing all key scientifi c disciplines. Apparently, the project considerably contributed to raising the public awareness on this critical issue and it also resulted in elaboration of a national climate change strategy. This publication presents the basic thematic areas and it also summarizes the main fi ndings of the project. István Láng member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences principal coordinator of the VAHAVA project vvahava-2010-12.inddahava-2010-12.indd 3 22010.12.08.010.12.08. 111:26:321:26:32 1. INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY COOPERATION AND HUNGARY Scientists had long ago called attention to the possibility of the global climate change, caused by human activities, but nearly a century had to be elapsed until politicians and decision makers also started to deal seriously with this issue. From the early 1970s some high ranking politicians recognized the signifi cance of this hazard and took more seriously the increasing amount of information from the scientifi c circles on the changes of quantities of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long-term trends of global climate characteristics and the scenarios derived from the simple early numerical models. At the UN Conference on Human Environment held in Stockholm in 1972 and in the documents adopted by the participants, the risk of the changing climate as caused at least partially by anthropogenic activities was mentioned already in very general terms. The need to cooperate at international level on emerging large-scale environmental problems – that time primarily focusing on the acidifi cation - has been reinforced in the Final Act of the Helsinki Conference in 1975. Complex fi eld experiences and dynamic climatological modelling studies were carried out in the second half of the 1970s in the framework of the interdisciplinary and intergovernmental Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) that was