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CENTRE for REGIONAL STUDIES of HUNGARIAN ACADEMY of SCIENCES DISCUSSION PAPERS No. 28 Climate History of Hungary Since 16Th Cent Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28. Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future CENTRE FOR REGIONAL STUDIES OF HUNGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES DISCUSSION PAPERS No. 28 Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future by Lajos RACZ Series editor Zoltan GAL Pecs 1999 Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28. Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future Publishing of this paper is supported by the Research Fund of the Centre for Regional Studies, Hungary Translated by Rita Konta Translation revised by Neil MacAskill Figures Katalin Molnarne Kasza Technical editor Mihaly Fodor Tiberias BT ISSN 0238-2008 © 1999 by Centre for Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Typeset by Centre for Regional Studies of HAS Printed in Hungary by Siimegi Nyomdaipari, Kereskedelmi es Szolgaltato Ltd., Pecs Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28. Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future CONTENTS Foreword 5 Acknowledgements 6 1. Territorial Variations of the Hungarian State since 1000 AD 7 2. Sources for Hungarian Climate History Research 12 2.1. Documentary Sources of Rethly's Source Book 14 2.1.1. Chronicles, Annals 15 2.1.2. Records of Public Administration 17 2.1.3. Private Estate Records 18 2.1.4. Personal Papers 18 2.1.5. Early Journalism 20 2.1.6. Early Instrument Based Records 20 2.1.7. Meteorological Instrument Records 21 2.2. Method of Analyzing the Source Documents 22 3. Climate Characteristics of the Carpathian Basin 25 3.1. Temperature Conditions of Hungary 25 3.2. Precipitation in Hungary 27 4. Climate Variations by Month in Hungary during the Little Ice Age 29 and Recent Global Warming 4.1. January 29 4.1.1. January Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 29 4.1.2. January Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 33 4.1.3. January Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 34 4.2. February 36 4.2.1. February Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 36 4.2.2. February Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 40 4.2.3. February Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 41 4.3. March 43 4.3.1. March Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 43 4.3.2. March Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 46 4.3.3. March Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 47 4.4. April 49 4.4.1. April Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 49 4.4.2. April Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 52 4.4.3. April Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 53 4.5. May 55 4.5.1. May Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 55 4.5.2. May Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 58 4.5.3. May Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 60 4.6. June 62 4.6.1. June Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 62 Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28. Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future 4.6.2. June Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 64 4.6.3. June Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 66 4.7. July 68 4.7.1. July Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 68 4.7.2. July Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 71 4.7.3. July Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 73 4.8. August 75 4.8.1. August Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 75 4.8.2. August Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 78 4.8.3. August Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 80 4.9. September 82 4.9.1. September Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 82 4.9.2. September Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 84 4.9.3. September Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 86 4.10. October 88 4.10.1. October Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 88 4.10.2. October Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 90 4.10.3. October Climate Change Characteristics over the Centuries 92 4.11. November 94 4.11.1. November Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 94 4.11.2. November Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 96 4.11.3. November Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 97 4.12. December 99 4.12.1. December Temperature Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 99 4.12.2. December Precipitation Anomalies and Medium Term Trends 102 4.12.3. December Climate Change Trends over the Centuries 103 5. Seasonal Climate Trends of the Decades and Centuries 105 5.1. Winter 105 5.2. Spring 109 5.3. Summer 112 5.4. Autumn 115 6. Half-Yearly and Yearly Climate Change Trends 118 6.1. Winter Half-Year 118 6.2. Summer Half-Year 122 6.3. Yearly Temperature and Precipitation Time Series 125 7. Climate Change Characteristics in Hungary during the Little 128 Ice Age and the Recent Warming 7.1. Correlation Study of the Climate History and Meteorological 128 Monthly Time Series 7.2. Hungarian Features of the Climate Changes 132 References 134 Appendix 142 Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28. Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future In memory of Antal Rethly FOREWORD The history of this booklet begins as far back as March 1985 when, as a second-year university student of both geography and history, I was trying to find a topic for my research work that was related to both sciences. My university professors, Lciszlo Makra and Gyorgy Peczely introduced me to the reference work of Antal Rethly. During my university studies Gcibor Mezosi acted ,as my tutor, while the first studies I made were commented on by Vera Zimcinyi, Agnes R. Vcirkonyi, Scindor Gyimesi, Lciszlo Katus, Lciszlo Kordos, Jcinos Mika and Jcinos Justycik. In 1990 I was fortunate enough to make contact with the prominent actor and coordinator of European climate history research, Professor Christian Pfister, who played a very dominant role in my profession- al career. At Prof. Pfister's invitation I worked at the Department of Regional and Environmental History of the University of Bern in the 1990's. During my studies in Bern Christian Pfister and Hannes Schule introduced me to the method of using docu- mentary sources, while the availability of adequate software and hardware resources further supported me in my ongoing research work. In addition to the climate history work completed in Bern, I enjoyed the benefit of considerable assistance in my research from historians such as Bernard Lepetit and Jean-Yves Grenier of `Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales' in Paris. The final impetus to produce this booklet was provided by the Hungarian Scholarship Committee ensuring a two-month scholar- ship in the Czech Republic at the end of 1998. The manuscript of this edition was pre- pared at the Geographic Institute of the Masaryk University in Brno with the assistance of Professor Rudolf Brcizdil and Petr Dobrovolny. Brno, 12 December 1998 Lajos Racz 5 Discussion Papers 1999. No. 28. Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past, Present and Future ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The study was realized with the financial support of the OTKA Foundation (F 20829, F 22261 and T 29183), the OKTK Foundation (1089/III.b. and 1502/III.b.) and Eotvos Fellowship Foundation. This paper contains the results of Alfold-2 Research Program' of Hungarian Academy of Sciences. 6 Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p. Discussion Papers, No. 28. 1. TERRITORIAL VARIATIONS OF THE HUNGARIAN STATE SINCE 1000 AD The Hungarian tribes reached their final homeland, the Carpathian Basin during one of the last migrational waves at the end of the 9' century. The 300,000 square kilo- meter area of the Carpathian Basin became the geographical site of the Hungarian State for centuries. Figure 1 Central Europe in the 11th century 0 SOOkin \ I. ) GRAND PRINCEDOM I I OF KIEV / i %.,. 1 s...C ..... e C...4,.• POLISH ( 4. ;.. GERMAN-ROMAN JKIKODOM • .0' , 't EMPIRE .7. s ) • i..i t tirmisom f .+•.......; ._. —•-• ! HUNGARIAN .k C.." KINGDOM j C nit7 t......•.'*".. ..r ' 4 1‘1 N % s.' 4VP/,b, I ' se (St.) Stephen I (Istvcin) (997-1038) officially adopted Christianity in 1000 AD and founded the Hungarian Kingdom. In the Middle Ages the area of the country gradual- ly expanded following several conquests and inheritances. In the 12' century the Croatian crown went to the Hungarian king as the Croatian royal family died out. The Croatian-Hungarian personal union endured until the beginning of the 20" century. The Hungarian State occupied the largest amount of territory in the Middle Ages when, in the 14' century, the Hungarian King Lajos I the Great took the title of King of Poland. 7 Rácz, Lajos: Climate History of Hungary Since 16th Century: Past Present and Future. Pécs: Centre for Regional Studies, 1999. 160 p. Discussion Papers, No. 28. Figure 2 Borders of the Hungarian Kingdom in the 14th century I . , . . L i 1 r ./ 1 - - - :-.:. .1' 0 • c.., • s ■ • • .,. v . 1 5 .A.7 . .....% ‘. L• 4"' ‘ .4. .." t . ••••••., ..0 'A. .,. r 7 C. s''''' I.; 0)„ GERMAN- 1. ' • ROMAN '""1E HEEZ.../4.6 00 4;; EMPIRE (KINGDOM HUNGARIAN Y, to, • KINGDOM rvii % •••• • — ••••• NptlAC":::* %e • .1" e•—• 1 00474'%, S . In the 15th century the Turks appeared at the southern border of Hungary and con- quered the southern and central territory of the country after a struggle of one and a half centuries, while the eastern territory, Transylvania, became a Turkish satellite- principality. The Hungarian Kingdom was then limited to the northern and northwest- ern regions of the Carpathian Basin and became part of the Central European Habsburg Monarchy together with Croatia.
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