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Hazards Volume IU: Risk Analysis PB93199040 Hazard Analysis of Com,mercial Sp,ace Transportation V,olume I: Operations Volume II: Hazards Volume IU: Risk Analysis Prepared for: Office of Commercial Space Transportation Prepared by: Transportation Systems Center Cambridge, MA 02142 May 1988 Cover illustration: Near Earth Satellite Population of July 1,1987 Compliments of Teledyne Brown Engineering REPRODUCED BY, NJlI u.s. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service Springfield, Virginia 22161 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VOLUME I: SPACE TRANSPORTATION OPERATIONS 1. THE CONTEXT FOR A HAZARD ANALYSIS OF COMMERCIAL SPACE ACTIVITIES 11 POLICY AND MARKET CONTEXT 1-1 1.2 REGULATORY CONTEXT FOR COMMERCIAL SPACE OPERATIONS 1-2 1 3 PU RPOSE AND SCOPE OF REPORT: HAZARD ANALYSIS OR RISK ASSESSMENT , 1-3 1.4 APPROACH TO HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR COMMERCIAL SPACE OPERATIONS 1-4 15 OVERVIEW OF THE REPORT ORGANIZATION 1-6 2. RANGE OPERATiONS, CONTROLS AND SAFETY 2 1 RANGE CHARACTERISTICS FOR SAFE OPERATION " ... ... .. .. ... .. ... .. 2-1 2.1.1 US Government Launch Sites ' " 2-1 2.1.2 Ground Operations and Safety 2-2 21.3 Range Safety Control System 2-3 22 LAUNCH PLANNING 2-6 221 Mission Planning 2-7 2.2.2 Standard Procedures to Prepare for a Launch 2-9 3. EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHKlE (ELV) CHARACTERISTICS 31 GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS 3-1 32 LAUNCH VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY 3-4 3_2.1 Propulsion Systems 3-5 3.2.2 Support Systems and Tanks 3-9 3T3Guloa-n-ceSystems 3-10 3.2.4 UpperStages 3-10 33 REPRESENTATIVE ELV's 3-11 33.1 Titan. ......... .... .... .. .... ................. .... 3-11 33.2 Delta. ...... ....... ................................. ...... 3-11 3.3.3 Atlas/Centaur '... ...... ..... ..... .. ' .. ,. 3-12 3.3.4 Scout 3-12 3.35 VehietesUnderDeve!opment 3-12 3.4 ELV LAUNCH EXPERIENCE 3-19 III 4. LAUNCH AND ORBITAL OPERATIONS 4 1 PHASES OF LAUNCH THROUGH ORBITAL OPERATION ... 4-1 41.1 Launch Phase . 4-1 412 Orbital Insertion and Orbital Operations 4-3 4.1 3 Orbital Decay and Re-entry .. 4-3 42 BASIC ORBITAL CHARACTERISTICS 4-5 VOLUME II: SPACE TRANSPORTATION HAZARDS 5. PRE-LAUNCH AND LAUNCH HAZARDS 5 1 INTRODUCTION ,. 5-1 51 1 Background and Objectives . 5-1 512 Major Information Resources on Rocket Propellant Hazards .... 5-2 52 EXPLOSION HAZARDS 5-3 521 Blast Waves 5-5 5.2.2 TNT Equivalency Analysis . 5-7 52.3 DamageCriteria................................................ 5-12 52.4 Variation of Explosion Hazards with Time from Liftoff 5-12 53 DEBRIS HAZARDS . 5-20 54 FIRE HAZARDS . 5-23 541 Fireballs . 5-24 542 Pool Fires 5-24 5.4.3 Vapor Cloud Fires . 5-26 55 TOXIC VAPOR CLOUDS 5-26 5.5.1 Atmospheric Dispersion 5-27 5.5.2 Rocket Exhaust Products 5-28 55.3 Releases During Accident Conditions . 5-2-9 56 OFF-RANGE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH ELV OPERATIONS 5-32 57 PERSPECTIVES ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ELV PROPELLANTS ..................... 5-35 6. ORBITAL COLLISION HAZARDS 6.1 ORBITING SPACE OBJECTS . 6-1 6.2 SPACE LAW AND SPACE DEBRIS ISSUES . .... 6-6 6.21 The Regulatory Framework for Orbit Allocation and Space Debris 6-6 IV 6.2.2 Orbital Debris Issues 6-8 63 ORIGIN OF OR81T1NG DEBRIS 6-9 6-3.1 Hypervelocity Collisions _. _ _ '. 6-9 63.2 Explosions and Spacecraft Breakups _ 6-9 6.3.3 Orbiting Nuclear Payloads ., _ _. 6-13 6.4 ASSESSMENT OF COLLISION HAZARDS IN ORBIT . 6-13 6.4.1 Collision Hazard in LEO . 6-13 6.4.2 Collision Probabilities in LEO 6-15 6.4.3 Collision Hazard in Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) 6-17 6.4.4 Gravitational Drift Forces in GEO __ '. .. 6-22 6.45 Collision Encounters in Geosynchronous Orbits 6-24 7. RE-ENTRY HAZARDS 7.1 DEFINITION AND NATURE OF RE-ENTRY """"""""'" _ 7-1 7.2 ORBITAL DECAY 7-2 7.3 RE-ENTRY SURVIVABILITY _ 7-7 7.4 RE-ENTRY IMPAaPREDICTION _ '" _ 7-9 75 IMPACT DISPERSIONS _ 7-11 76 RE-ENTRY HAZARD ANALYSIS 7-11 VOLUME Ill: SPACE TRANSPORTATION RISK ANALYSIS 8. RiSK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 8 1 WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS? ,. _. .. .. .. .. .. .. 8-1 8.2 RISK PERCEPTION AND RISK ACCEPTABILITY 8-2 83 EXPEaED RISK VALUES AND RISK PROFILES 8-5 8.4 IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS, PROBABILITY ESTIMATION AND CONSEQUENCE MODELING _ -............................ _. _. __ ' _ .8-.10 85 UNCERTAINTIESANDRELlABILlTY _ __ 8-11 86 RELIABILITY VERSUS SAFETY __ '" 8-13 87 RISKASSESSMENTMETHODS ._ 8-14 9. APPLICATiONS OF RISK ANALYSIS TO SPACE LAUNCH OPERATiONS 91 LAU NCH RISK ANALYSIS OBJ ECTIVES __ .. __ _. __ . .. 9-1 9.1.1 System Failure Modes and Probabilities , _.. _.' _., _.. .. 9-5 9 1.2 Impact Probabilities .. _. _ __ . .. _____.. _.. 9-6 v 9.1.3 Debris Lethality . 9-7 914 The Meaning of Casualty Expectation 9-7 91 5 Population/Structures Data 9-8 916 Launch and Mission Planning 9-9 92 LAUNCH RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS 9-9 921 Pre-launch Safety Requirements 9-9 92.2 Risk Models and Safety Criteria Used at National Ranges 9-11 10. A GENERIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE LAUNCH SCENARIOS 10 1 INTRODUCTION . .. 10-1 102 RISKS DURING DIFFERENT PHASES OF A TYPICAL MISSION 10-1 1021 Pre-launch Hazards 10-1 1022 Launch Hazards 10-2 1023 Pre-orbital Hazards . 10-10 103 LAU NCH SITE RISK CONSTRAINTS . 10-13 lOA VARIATION OF RISK DUE TO MISSION PROFILE, LAUNCH VEHICLE, AND PAYLOAD 10-15 104.1 Relative Risks of Missions 10-15 104.2 Hazardous Characteristics ofTypical ELV's . 10-15 lOA.21 Titan . 10-16 10.422 Atlas/Centaur . 10-17 1042.3 Delta . 10-20 10A.3 Payload Contributions to Launch and Mission Risk 10-21 105 BENEFITS OF RANGE SAFETY CONTROL 10-22 1051 Range Safety Control System Reliability . 10-22 105.2 Loss and Casualty Potential When Range Safety Controls Are Not Used . 10-22 1053 Comparison of Risk Acceptability.............. 10-24 APPENDIXA. GLOSSARY AND DEfiNITION OF TERMS APPENDIX B. FUEL PROPERTIES AND CHARACTERISTICS VI TABLES 1-1. PHASES OF COMMERCIAL LAU NCH OPERATIONS 1-6 3-1. CHARACTERISTICS OF US EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES _. _ _ . 3-2 3-1. CHARACTERISTICS OF US EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES (CONT) _.. _.. _.. _. 3-3 3-2 US ELV's EVOLVING LIFT CAPABILITY . __ . _. __ .... _.. _. _. __ . _.. _ __ .. _. __ . _... _. 3-4 3-3. SPECI FIC IMPU LSE OF SOLID PROPELLANT COMBINATIONS _ _ __ . _. _. .. 3-6 3-4 SPECIFIC IMPULSE OF LIQUID PROPELLANT COMBINATIONS _.. _ _.. _.. _. .. 3-7 3-5. ELV LAUNCH RELIABILITY _. _.. " __ . _ _ _.. _'" .. _.. _ 3-21 4-1 MISSION VELOCITY REqUiREMENTS .... _. _.. .... __ . ... _......... 4-11 4-2. COMPARISON OF RELATIVE ACCELERATION (IN G's) FOR AN EARTH SATELLITE AT 200 NM ALTITU DE .... _.. _. _... __ . __ . _. _.. _.... __ ...... _.. _.... __ . __ . .. ... 4-14 5-1. ESTIMATED SHUTILE MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EXPLOSIVES EQUIVALENCES . _. _.. _ _.. 5-9 5-2 LIQUID PROPELLANT HIGH EXPLOSIVE (TNT) EQUIVALENT YIELDS . __ .. _. _. _ 5-10 5-3. ESTIMATED UPPER BOUNDS ON TNT-EQUIVALENT WEIGHTS OF ELV PROPELLANTS 5-11 5-4. CONDITIONS OF FAILURE OF PEAK OVERPRESSURE-SENSITIVE ELEMENTS . _.. _. .. 5-13 5-5. AIR-BLAST CRITERIA FOR PERSONNEL STANDING IN THE OPEN _..... _. _...... " .. ' 5-14 5-6 MINIMUM CRITICAL RADIANT EXPOSURES NECESSARY TO IGNITE OR DAMAGE VARIOUS TARGETS .. ,. _.... _.... __ ... __ . __ . _., . __ . _. _. _. _. _.. _. __ ... __ . __ . _. _. _.... 5-25 5-7. EXPOSU RE CRITERIA FOR SOME COMBUSTION PRODUCTS AND PROPELLANTS .. _. .. 5-30 5-8. ADVERSE OFF-RANGE ACCIDENT IMPACTS FOR VARIOUS PHASES OF SPACE LAUNCH OPERATIONS . _.. _... _.. _. _.. _. __ . _. __ . _.. __ ... __ ... _. __ . __ . __ .. _.. 5-33 5-9. SELECTED PROPERTIES AFFECTING THE HAZARDOUS BEHAVIORS OF LIQUID PROPELLANTS AND CHEMICALS .. ,. __ __ . _ __ . _ _ _. _.. _ 5-36 5-10. COMPARISON OF CHEMICAL ENERGY CONTENTS OF SPACE VEHICLES AND OTHER INDUSTRIAL OPERATIONS . __ . __ _. __ . _.. _.. _. _ _.. .. _.. _ _ 5-37 5-11. EXAMPLE OF MAJOR ACCIDENTAL EXPLOSIONS OF FUELS AND CHEMICALS AND THEIR TNT EQU IVALENT WEIGHTS (ESTIMATED FROM ACTUAL DAMAGES) _. __ . _.. __ . _. __ . ___ 5-39 5-12. HISTORY OF LARGE SRM EXPLOSIONS AND THEIR TNT EQU IVALENT WEIGHTS __ . __ ., 5-40 6-1. FRAGMENTS GENERATED IN HYPERVELOCITY COLLISIONS _ .. _.. _. _ _. 6-9 6-2. YEARLY LEO LAUNCH ACTIVITY __ . _.. __ . _.. _ _ _.. __ . _.. __ , 6-15 6-3. COLLISION TIMES FOR A SHUTILE ORBITER WITH LEO DEBRIS .. __ . __ .... _., 6-17 VII 6-4 TIME BETWEEN ON ORBIT COLLISIONS VERSUS LEO ALTITUDE 6-17 6-5 GEO LAUNCH ACTIVITY ........... 6-19 7-1 RE-ENTRIES OF SPACE NUCLEAR POWER SUPPLIES ............. .. 7-16 8-1 INDIVIDUAL RISK OF ACUTE FATALITY BY VARIOUS CAUSES . 8-4 8-2 ANNUAL RISK OF DEATH FROM SELECTED COMMON ACTIVITIES . 8-4 8-3. GENERAL FORM OF OUTPUT FROM THE ANALYTIC PHASE OF RISK ANALYSIS . 8-8 8-4. NUMBER OF TESTS THAT MUST BE PERFORMED WITHOUT A FAILURE TO PROVIDE A SPECIFIC MINIMUM RELIABILITY AT ANY CONFIDENCE LEVEL . 8-12 8-5 RELIABILITY USED AS PERFORMANCE PREDICTOR FOR A HYPOTHETICAL LAUNCH VEHICLE . 8-14 8-6. COMPONENT FAILURE RATES . 8-15 8-7. HUMAN FAILURE RATES . 8-15 8-8. STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF SELECTED RISK QUANTIFICATION TECHNIQUES .. 8-16 8-9 MALFUNCTIONS AND FAILURES .
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