Quarterly Report to Members, Subscribers and Friends

First Quarter, 2020 Q1 Highlights: Impactful Policy Research & Outreach

Q1 Research  14 research papers  3 Monetary Policy Council releases  1 Competition Policy Council release

Q1 Policy Events  20 policy events and special meetings, including:  Roundtable – Ben Gully  Calgary Roundtable – The Hon Travis Toews  Ottawa Roundtable –Jason Kenney  9 Inside Access conference calls featuring the authors of Institute research summarizing their work

Policy Outreach in Q1  141,055 website page views  6 policy outreach presentations  68 National Post and citations  Citations in more than 800 media outlets  40 media interviews  15 opinion and editorial pieces  74 Intelligence Memos

2 Q1 Policy Influence

Commentary “Healthcare Spending Overshoots a Threat to Sustainability” by William B.P Robson  C.D. Howe report cited in CIHI national expenditure trends 1975-2019 report.

Commentary “Future Shock? The Impact of Automation on Canada’s Labour Market” by Rosalie Wyonch and Matthias Oschinski  C.D. Howe Institute commentary cited in a Future Skills Centre report.

E-Brief “Funding for Results in Higher Education” by Alex Usher  Alberta government announce large-scale performance-based funding systems for universities.

Commentary “Productivity and the Financial Sector – What’s Missing” by Jeremy Kronick  Finance decides to proceed to stage 2 of consultations on whether to proceed with open banking, citing C.D. Howe research in its deliberations.

Intelligence Memo “Is There a Big Mortgage Debt Problem?” by Paul M. Jacobson  Benchmark rate used to determine the minimum qualifying rate for insured mortgages changed to the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate from mortgage insurance applications, plus 2%.

Intelligence Memo “The Economy Needs a Big, Strong COVID Bridge” by Kevin Milligan  Canada Student Loans deferred payment with no interest accrual in the meantime during crisis.  The Canada Child Benefit was increased by $300 for this year as part of the government’s stimulus package.

3 Q1 Policy Influence

Intelligence Memo “Crisis Relief for Canadian Savers” by William B.P. Robson and Alexandre Laurin  Government reducing the minimum withdrawal rate for registered retirement income funds (RRIFs) by 25% for 2020.  announced on March 19, 2020 that it will harmonize with the federal government concerning its measure to reduce by 25% in 2020 the amount of mandatory withdrawal from a registered retirement income fund (RRIF).

Intelligence Memo “For More and Swift Action, Just Look to Germany” by Thorsten Koeppl  Small-business owners will receive a temporary wage subsidy from Ottawa that will be equal to 10 percent of salary paid to employees for a period of three months during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Intelligence Memo “Provincial Economic Policy Responses to COVID-19” by Benjamin Dachis  Planned property tax reassessment postponed for 2021.  The City of Toronto is waiving all penalties on late property tax and other bill payments for two months, retroactive to March 16 in response to the unprecedented economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Globe and Mail Op-Ed “During this pandemic, Canadians are feeling real financial stress. Here’s how governments can help” by William B.P. Robson  Allow businesses, including self-employed individuals, to defer all Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax (GST/HST) payments until June.  Quebec has announced additional delays to certain tax filings and payments due to the COVID-19 outbreak, harmonized with new federal changes.

4 Q1 Policy Influence

Various Publications “Canadian businesses need much bigger subsidies for salaries during this crisis - Globe and Mail Op-Ed;” “Subsidize Wages, Backstop Credit, Protect Supply Chains: C.D. Howe Institute Business Continuity and Trade Crisis Working Group;” “Wage Subsidies and Emergency Financial Support Needed: Crisis Working Group on Household Income and Credit Support”  75 percent wage subsidy for qualifying small and medium businesses, for up to three months, retroactive to March 15.

Working Group Report “Enhanced Government Credit Facility Needed: Crisis Working Group on Monetary and Financial Measures”  The newly created Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA), will provide capital to small businesses who need it to cover their operating costs, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Various Publications “Filling the Gap: Emergency Funding Programs and Asset-Based Finance in Times of Economic Crisis” “Enhanced Government Credit Facility Needed: Crisis Working Group on Monetary and Financial Measures”  New Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Loan and Guarantee program launched, that will enable up to $40 billion in lending, supported through Export Development Canada and Business Development Bank.

5 Q1 Publications

1. A Work in Progress: Measuring Wage Gaps for Women and Minorities in the Canadian Labour Market, January 9, 2020 – Tammy Schirle, Moyosoreoluwa Sogaolu

2. Work-Ready Graduates: The Role of Co-op Programs in Labour Market Success, January 14, 2020 – Rosalie Wyonch

3. One More Case for Longer-Term Mortgages: Financial Stability, January 21, 2020 – Michael K. Feldman

4. Monetary Policy, Income Inequality, and Inflation – What’s the Link?, January 28, 2020 – Jeremy Kronick, Francisco Villarreal

5. Water in the Wine? Monetary Policy and the Impact of Non-bank Financial Intermediaries, February 4, 2020 – Jeremy Kronick, Wendy Wu

6. Predicting Financial Crises: The Search for the Most Telling Red Flag in the Economy, February 13, 2020 – Jeremy Kronick, Steve Ambler

7. What You See is Not What You Get: Budgets versus Results in Canada’s Major Cities, 2019, February 20, 2020 – Farah Omran, William B.P. Robson

8. Quantifying CUSMA: The Economic Consequences of the New North American Trade Regime, February 21, 2020 – Dan Ciuriak, Ali Dadkhah, Jingliang Xhao

9. There is No Try: Sustainable Healthcare Requires Reining in Spending Overshoots, February 27, 2020 – William B.P. Robson 6 Q1 Publications

10. Supporting Growth, Restoring Confidence: A Shadow Federal Budget for 2020, March 5, 2020 – William B.P. Robson, Alexandre Laurin

11. The Era of Digital Financial Innovation: Lessons from Economic History on Regulation, March 12, 2020 – David Longworth

12. Conference Report - Vaping and E-Cigarette Regulation in Canada, March 17, 2020

13. The Power of Postponed Retirement, March 24, 2020 – Joseph Nunes

14. Filling the Gap: Emergency Funding Programs and Asset-Based Finance in Times of Economic Crisis, March 31, 2020 – David Powell

7 Our Website’s Five Most-Visited Publications in Q1

1. Work-Ready Graduates: The Role of Co-op Programs in Labour Market Success, January 14, 2020 – Rosalie Wyonch

2. A Work in Progress: Measuring Wage Gaps for Women and Minorities in the Canadian Labour Market, January 9, 2020 – Tammy Schirle and Moyosoreoluwa Sogaolu

3. What You See is Not What You Get: Budgets versus Results in Canada’s Major Cities, 2019, February 20, 2020 – Farah Omran and William B.P. Robson

4. Predicting Financial Crises: The Search for the Most Telling Red Flag in the Economy, February 13, 2020 – Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler

5. Kevin Milligan – The Economy Needs a Big, Strong COVID Bridge, March 17, 2020 – Kevin Milligan

8 Q1 Opinion Pieces

January Op-Eds  There are better, cheaper ways to get Canadians the medications they need - Financial Post Op-Ed– Financial Post Op-Ed, January 11

 Fighting the next recession with ‘unconventional fiscal policy’ - Globe and Mail Op-Ed, January 21

 U.S., China are going rogue on trade deal - Globe and Mail Op-Ed, January 22

 For the Bank of Canada, what a difference a few months makes - Globe and Mail Op-Ed, January 28

February Op-Eds  Regulations alone won’t fix Alberta’s potential oil-and-gas well crisis - Globe and Mail Op- Ed, February 5

 Ottawa should use principles, not politics, in Frontier decision - Globe and Mail Op-Ed, February 18

 CUSMA: Let's get on with it - Financial Post Op-Ed, February 20

 Canada's shadow banks are now too big to ignore - National Post Op-Ed, February 21

 There should not be a U-turn on Alberta's fiscal journey - Calgary Herald Op-Ed, February 27

9 Q1 Opinion Pieces

March Op-Eds  There's a better barometer for determining Canadians' financial fragility - Financial Post Op- ed, March 4

 Bank of Canada should have kept more of its powder dry in case things get worse - Financial Post Op-Ed, March 11

 During this pandemic, Canadians are feeling real financial stress. Here’s how governments can help - Globe and Mail Op-Ed, March 15

 Bill Robson: Give businesses a break on GST/HST payments during COVID-19 pandemic - National Post Op-Ed, March 20

 Canadian businesses need much bigger subsidies for salaries during this crisis - Globe and Mail Op-Ed, March 22

 Job subsidy is key to getting through the COVID-19 crisis – Op-Ed, March 25

10 Q1 Intelligence Memos

January Intelligence Memos 1. Glen Hodgson - Five Key Issues for 2020, January 6 2. William B.P. Robson – A Professional Nag Pauses to Reflect, January 7 3. Jon Johnson – CUSMA Auto Rules of Origin, the Protocol and US Implementing Legislation – Part One, January 8 4. Jon Johnson – CUSMA Auto Rules of Origin, the Protocol and US Implementing Legislation – Part Two, January 9 5. William B.P. Robson – Toronto’s property tax hike - because a $1.4 billion surplus isn’t big enough?, January 10 6. Nick Pantaleo – Improving Ottawa’s Changes to the Tax Treatment of Employee Stock Options – Part II, January 13 7. Don Drummond – Improving on a Mandate Letter, January 14 8. Robin Boadway – The Case Against Enhancing Fiscal Stabilization for Resource Revenues, January 15 9. Robert Siddall – With a Little Help From Our Friends, January 16 10. Slattery, Zidar – The costs and limited benefits of firm-specific subsidies, January 17 11. Jon Johnson – Reconciling US Implementing Legislation and CUSMA Uniform Regulations, January 20 12. William B.P. Robson – Net Debt, Capital Assets and Net Worth – Making Sense of the Numbers, January 21 13. Joanne De Laurentiis – Modernizing the Regulation of Financial Advice, January 22 14. Rosalie Wyonch – Analyzing How Co-op Programs Boost Incomes, January 23 15. Frank Swedlove – CUSMA: What Does It Mean for Financial Services?, January 24 16. Robson, Omran – Budget Numbers in Canadian Cities: Progress and Hurdles, January 27 17. Bhatia, Falk, McCready, Tepper – Responding to the Coronavirus: Building Capacity through Virtual Care, January 28 18. Benjamin Dachis – Fixing oil and gas property tax problems through regional governance reform, 11 January 29 Q1 Intelligence Memos

January Intelligence Memos (continued) 19. Patrick Gill – Jumpstarting Municipal Investment Returns: The Prudent Thing to Do, January 30 20. John D. Murray – Central Banks and the Future of Money, January 31

February Intelligence Memos 21. Marcel Boyer – Putting CEO Pay in Perspective, February 3 22. Jack Mintz – The Little-Noticed Tax Deductibility Attack on Corporations, February 4 23. Rosalie Wyonch – Nudging Health: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, February 5 24. Grant Bishop – Boon or Bane? The Mandated Broadband and Wireless Access Debate, February 6 25. John Gruetzner – What to do about Huawei, February 7 26. Robert Siddall – Assessing Climate Change Impacts on P3s, February 10 27. Martin Eichenbaum – Going Unconventional on Fiscal Policy as a Recession-Fighting Tool, February 11 28. Lawrence Herman – The Unsettling US-China Trade Armistice, February 12 29. Jon Johnson – A 16-year Review Process Can Help Avoid CUSMA Headaches, February 13 30. Bishop, Dachis – Let’s Get the Private Sector into Orphan Well Cleanup Pricing, February 14 31. Blomqvist, Wyonch – A Voucher Model for Long-Term Care, February 18 32. Allan Lanthier – Ottawa Should Forget about Limiting Interest Expense Deductibility, February 19 33. Schirle, Sogaolu – The Broad and Persistent Wage Gaps in Canada’s Labour Market, February 20 34. Dan Ciuriak – The New NAFTA: Better Than No NAFTA but Curb Your Enthusiasm, February 20 35. David Johnson – Disadvantaged Students Suffer from School Strikes , February 21 36. Alexandre Laurin – Building on the Early Success: Time for a TFSA Tune-Up , February 24 37. Jim Feehan – The Muskrat Falls Electricity Project: A Hard Lesson, February 25 38. Omran, Robson – City Budgets Are Not What They Seem, February 26 39. David Johnson – Time Travelling in the Ontario Elementary School System, February 27 40. Kronick, Omran – Coronavirus and Supply-side Shocks, February 28

12 Q1 Intelligence Memos

March Intelligence Memos 41. Kronick, Wu – Shadow Banking is Growing Up and Needs Adult Attention, March 2 42. Edward Glaeser – Solving the Housing Price Crisis, Part I, March 3 43. Edward Glaeser – Solving the Housing Price Crisis, Part II, March 4 44. Jon Johnson – Combatting Climate Change with Carbon Border Taxes: Good or Bad Idea? March 5 45. Gillian Brown – The Need for More Gender Diversity in Investment Management, March 6 46. Helen Sinclair – Why the Slow Track is the Wrong Track, March 9 47. Wyonch, Drummond – Caring for the Elderly: A Health Human Resource Problem, March 10 48. Kronick, Robson – The Bank of Canada and COVID-19, March 11 49. Alberto Alesina – Explaining Austerity, March 12 50. Ambler, Kronick – The COVID-19 Monetary Policy Problem, March 13 51. Hodgson, Schwanen: Looking Beyond Macro-Economic Policies to Address Consequences of COVID-19, March 16 52. Thorsten Koeppl – For More and Swift Action, Just Look to Germany, March 16 53. William B. P. Robson – COVID-19: How Canada’s Governments Can Really Help, March 16 54. Laurin, Robson – Crisis Relief for Canadian Savers, March 16 55. Glen Hodgson – The Role of Crown Financial Institutions During a Pandemic, March 17 56. Kevin Milligan – The Economy Needs a Big, Strong COVID Bridge, March 17 57. Kronick, Ambler – The Path Forward for the Bank of Canada, March 18 58. Dwight Duncan – Extraordinary Events Call for Extraordinary Responses, March 18 59. Tammy Schirle – The Next Piece of the Puzzle, March 19 60. Benjamin Dachis – Provincial Economic Policy Responses to COVID-19, March 20 61. William B. P. Robson – Give Businesses a Lifeline: Relief on GST/HST Remittances, March 20 62. Glen Hodgson – What Will a Pandemic Mean for Economic Performance? March 20

13 Q1 Intelligence Memos

March Intelligence Memos (cont.) 63. Samuel, Robson – The Economy Needs a Timeline, March 23 64. Robson, Bishop – Coronavirus Crisis Shows Value of Robust Digital Infrastructure, March 24 65. Gillezeau, Petit, Tedds – Recommendations for Immediate Provincial Policy Responses to COVID-19, March 24 66. Glen Hodgson – The Other Canadian Threat: The Oil Sector Price Shock, March 25 67. William B.P. Robson and Grant Bishop – Job Subsidy from Ottawa is Key to Getting Through the COVID- 19 Crisis, March 25 68. William White – The Recession and the Pandemic: Cause or Trigger? March 26 69. David Powell – Filling the Gap: Emergency Funding Programs and Asset-Based Finance in Times of Economic Crisis, March 27 70. Dachis, Bishop, Robson – An Ounce of Layoff Prevention is Worth a Pound of Income-Support Cure, March 27 71. Phil Oreopoulos – An Evidence-Based Approach to Education During a Pandemic, March 30 72. Edward Waitzer – Fairness to Tenants: The Urgent Need for a Nationally Coordinated Policy Response, March 30 73. Ambler, Kronick – Financing the COVID Deficit: Short and Long Runs, March 31 74. Kevin Milligan – Fortifying the CERB, March 31

14 Q1 Member Events & Special Meetings

1. Sound Mortgage Underwriting: Foundation for Stability Roundtable – Luncheon with Ben Gully, Toronto, January 24.

2. Fighting the Unseen Enemy: Update from the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force – Webinar with Dr. David Naylor, January 29.

3. Canada’s Communications Future: Time to Act – Roundtable Luncheon with Janet Yale, Toronto, February 6.

4. Austerity and the Economy: Spending Cuts Versus Tax Increases – The Annual Jack Mintz Lecture with Alberto Alesina Toronto, February 12.

5. The Hon. Travis Toews, Minister of Finance of Alberta and President of the Treasury Board – Roundtable Luncheon, Calgary, March 2.

6. Debt Watch: The Outlook for Provincial Credit Ratings – Roundtable Luncheon with Adam Hardi, Paul LeBane and Stephen Ogilvie, Toronto, March 5.

7. The Honourable , Canada’s Minister of Finance – Roundtable Breakfast in Partnership with Canadian Club Toronto, Toronto, March 6.

8. Making Headway: The TTC’s Capital Investment Priorities – Roundtable Luncheon with Rick Leary, CEO, Toronto Transit Commission, Toronto, March 12.

9. A Fair Deal for Alberta in the Federation – Roundtable Luncheon with Jason Kenney, Premier of Alberta, Ottawa, March 12.

15 Q1 Member Events & Special Meetings

10. The Promise and Perils of Drug Pricing Regulations – Webinar with William Comanor and Kimberly Robinson, March 23.

11. Ask Me Anything… About the Canadian Governments' Responses to COVID-19 – Webinar with William B.P. Robson, March 26.

16 Q1 Selected Media Coverage

17 Q1 Selected Media Coverage

18 Q1 Policy Outreach by Institute Staff

1. Benjamin Dachis was a panelist on TVO’s The Agenda discussing municipal finances, Toronto, January 20.

2. Benjamin Dachis gave a quest lecture at the University of Toronto’s School of Public Policy, January 28.

3. Benjamin Dachis gave a presentation to the Government Relations Committee of the Toronto Region Real Estate Board, February 19.

4. Daniel Schwanen participated in an invitations-only seminar on data markets with academic and government experts at the University of Waterloo, February 28, 2020.

5. Rosalie Wyonch gave a lecture titled: Research Methods (Applied Policy Analysis) at University of Waterloo, March 12.

6. Jeremy Kronick gave a briefing to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the Department of Finance, March 31.

19 Examples of Academics Using the Institute’s Research in Their Courses

1. John Richards, Professor, School of Public Policy, Simon Fraser University 2. Carolyn Tuohy, Professor Emeritus, School of Public Policy & Governance, University of Toronto 3. Ian Irvine, Professor, Economics, Concordia University 4. Paul Jenkins, Senior Distinguished Fellow, Faculty of Public Affairs, Carleton University 5. Jonathan Rhys Kesselman, Professor, School of Public Policy, Simon Fraser University 6. Kevin Milligan, Professor, Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia 7. Ugurhan Berkok, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University 8. Pierre Siklos, Professor, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University 9. Zachary Spicer, Assistant Professor, Brock University 10. William Watson, Professor, Department of Economics, McGill University 11. Jim Davies, Professor, Department of Economics, Western University 12. Patrick Fafard, Associate Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ottawa 13. Joerg Wittenbrinck, Lecturer, Ryerson University 14. Thorsten Koeppl, Professor and RBC Fellow, Queen’s University 15. Anindya Sen, Professor of Economics and Director of the Master of Public Services, University of Waterloo 16. David Johnson, Professor of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University

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21 About the C.D. Howe Institute

• The C.D. Howe Institute is a national, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that aims to improve Canadians’ standard of living by fostering sound economic and social policy.

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