Innovative Research Group, Inc. www.innovativeresearch.ca :: Vancouver

Public Opinion Research 

Ontario This Month

Provincial Liberal Leadership

Field Dates: October 17 – 22, 2012 Sample Size: n=600; MoE ±4.0%

October 2012 © 2012 Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc. 2 Key Takeaways

Leadership race and OLP renewal . The leadership race moves many non-Liberals onto the fence; many indicated with the right leader, they are willing to give the party a second look. . Four-in-ten Ontarians only looking for minor changes from government. . Ontarians are looking for a new Liberal leader who will reduce unemployment and create new jobs, have a more honest and accountable governance style and focus on social policies.

Potential candidates . Even best-known candidates not well-known among general public. . Among those tested, does best among core Liberals, and does best among potential Liberals.

McGuinty’s legacy . McGuinty legacy depends on current political preference. 3 Methodology

• Telephone survey of approximately 600 adults, 18 years and older conducted (Prior to April 2003 approximately 650 adults): – 2000 – April 14-25; May 15-27; June 21-29; July 15-23; Aug 16-21; Sept 22-Oct 3; Oct 27-Nov 1; Nov 24-28; Dec14-18. – 2001 – Jan 15-17; Feb 27-March 2; March 22-26; April 26-30; May 25-30; June 22-28; July 19-26; Aug 23-30; Sept 20-27; Oct 18- 25, Nov 23-29, Dec 13-20. – 2002 – Jan 15-21; Feb 22-28; March 12-17; April 10-14; May 16-21; June 21-26; July 18-23; Aug 20-26; Sept 16-23; Oct 18-23; Nov 18-22; Dec 11-14. – 2003 – Jan 17-22; Feb 13-19; March 15-20; April 9-15; May 7-13, June 18-23; July 16-21; Aug 13-20; Sept 12-19; Oct 15-20; Nov 12-16; Dec 5-11. – 2004 – Jan 9-15; Feb 6-12; March 8-14; April 14-20; May 19-23; June 17-21; July 8-14; Aug 12-18; Sept 20-26; Oct 13-18; Nov 15- 20; Dec 10-15. – 2005 – Jan 14-18; Feb 11-16; March 11-16; April 8-11; May 13-18; June 10-14, July 8-14, Aug 15-21, Sep 15-21, Oct 13-20, Nov 10- 22, Dec 8-14 – 2006 – Jan 12-17; Feb 13-19; March 17-23; April 17-25; May 10-15; June 8-14; July 20 – 25; Aug 10-16; Sept 19-25; Oct 12-18; Nov 16-22; Dec 7-13 – 2007 – Jan 12-18; Feb 12-18; Mar 22-28; April 12-17; May 10-16; June 14-20; July 17-24; Aug 10-16; Sept 11-16; Oct 12-18; Nov 8- 15; Dec 6-12. – 2008 – Jan 10-16; Feb 6-13; March 22-28; April 22-27; May 12-17; June 12-18; July 10-16; Aug 14-27; Sept 19-25; Oct 15- Nov 6; Nov 20- Dec 13; Dec 13-19. – 2009 – Jan 10-17; Feb 19-25; Mar 8-14; April Mar 29- April 4; May 21-26; June 16-30; Jul 26-Aug 2; Aug 21-27; Sept 30-Oct 9; Oct 26- Nov 4; Dec. 30 - Jan 2. – 2010 – Jan 30-Feb 8; Feb 27-Mar 4; Mar 26– April3; April27– May 9; May 28-June 9; Aug 27-Sept 3; Oct 27 to Nov 7; Nov 1-11 (Online); Nov 30--Dec 5, – 2011 - Jan 21-27, 2011; Feb 11-17; March 30 –April 4; May 11-17;June 29 – July 3, July 30 to Aug 5, Aug 12-18, Sept 19 -24, Oct 28 to Nov 6, Nov 30 to Dec 4 – 2012 – Jan 16 to 22, Feb 16-24, March 15 to 19, April 28 to May 1, May 31 – June 1, 2012, July 18-Aug 1, 2012, Aug 28-Sept 2, Oct. 17-22 • Margin of error approximately +4.0. • Margin of error prior to April 2003 approximately +3.84. • Data weighted according to 2006 Census to reflect actual demographic breakdown. • Prior to February 2003 data weighted according to 1996 Census. • Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. 4

Provincial Vote Vote + Lean: Main party support has converged to create a 5 very tight race

Q If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party? In that case, which party’s candidate do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean]

23% 21% 22%

15%

6%

0%

Jul '04Jul Jul '00Jul '01Jul '02Jul '03Jul '05Jul '06Jul

Jan'01 Jan'02 Jan'03 Jan'04 Jan'05 Jan'06 Jan'07 Jan'08 Jan'09 Jan'10 Jan'11 Jan'12

Oct Oct '00 Oct '01 Oct '02 Oct '03 Oct '04 Oct '05 Oct '06 Oct '07 Oct '08 Oct '09 Oct '10

Apr Apr '03 Apr '09 Apr '00 Apr '01 Apr '02 Apr '04 Apr '05 Apr '06 Apr '07 Apr '08 Apr '10

July '10 July July'07 July'08 July'09

May'11

April'12

August'11 August'12 PC Liberal NDP Green Other Undecided 6 Decided vote: Liberals continue to decline as NDP rises

Q If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party? In that case, which party’s candidate

do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED VOTE]

Election

Election Election

32% 28% 31%

9%

Jul '10Jul

Jun-99

Jan'08 Jan'09 Jan'10 Jan'11 Jan'12

Jun'00 Jun'01 Jun'02 Jun'03

Oct Oct '07 Oct '08 Oct '09 Oct '10

Apr '08 Apr '09 Apr '10

Sep'00 Sep'01 Sep'02 Sep'03 Feb'04 Feb'05 Feb'06 Feb'07

July'08 July'09

Dec'00 Dec'01 Dec'02

Aug'04 Aug'05 Aug'06 Aug'07

Nov '03 Nov '04 Nov '05 Nov '06 Nov

Mar '01 Mar '02 Mar '03

May'04 May'05 May'06 May'07 May'11

April'12 August'12 PC Liberal NDP Green August'11 7

McGuinty’s Legacy McGuinty legacy: Liberals, NDP view most favourably, PCs 8 and undecided voters less so

Q After serving as Premier for the past 9 years, do you think Dalton McGuinty has made things better or worse for people like you in ? [asked of all 600 respondents]

GenPop 3% 26% 21% 20% 23%

Liberal voters 12% 52% 22% 10% 2% n=101

Undecided voters 3% 21% 26% 21% 19% n=157

PC voters 10% 18% 24% 46% n=125

NDP voters 28% 13% 28% 27% n=121

A lot better Somewhat better No difference Somewhat worse A lot worse

Note: ‘’Don’t know’ / ‘Refused’ not shown 9 McGuinty’s “good job” in minds of those saying he made things better, many reasons for those who think he made things worse

Q In what way has Dalton McGuinty made things better/worse for people like you? Better Worse

General - good job 25% Economy / unemployment worse 15%

General - bad job 14% Improved finances / the 13% economy Education not handled well 12%

Improved education 13% Higher taxes 12%

Increased deficit / wasted money 10% Improved healthcare 8% Made healthcare worse 7% Improved environment / 6% energy programs Is dishonest 6% Labour disputes handled badly 5% Improved social programs 3% Bad energy policies 4% How well he has handled 2% unions HST 4%

Seniors worse off Other 9% 1% Other 4% None / don't know / refused 22% Don't know / refused 6%

Note: Responses from those who say ‘better’; n=175 Note: Responses from those who say ‘worse’; n=262 10

Leadership Race and OLP Renewal 11 Pre-test: Likelihood to vote Liberal How likely is it that you will be voting Liberal in the next Ontario election? Q [asked of all 600 respondents]

18% likely 46% unlikely to voting Liberal vote Liberal

30% 31%

15% 11% 8% 6%

Definitely voting Probably voting Not sure one Probably not Definitely not Don't know Liberal Liberal way or another voting Liberal voting Liberal Ontario Liberal Policies: Four-in-ten Ontarians believe 12 policies work well or only need minor changes

Q Which of the following statements regarding the policies and programs of the come closest to your own views? [asked of all 600 respondents]

GenPop 42% 36% 13% 8%

Liberal voters 3% 80% 12% 4% n=101

Undecided voters 3% 39% 41% 8% 11% n=158

PC voters 27% 40% 26% 7% n=124

NDP voters 33% 49% 15% 3% n=120 Their policies and programs are working well and need no change Their policies and programs are working OK, but need minor changes Their policies and programs are NOT working and need major changes Their policies and programs are FUNDAMENTALLY wrong and should be reversed Don't know Changes by new leader: Economic/fiscal changes, 13 governance style, and social policies important

Q When the Liberals elect a new leader, what is the single most important change you hope the new leader will make? Reduce unemployment/create more jobs 10% Honesty/accountability 8% Better health care 5% Lower taxes/surcharges 5% Economic policy 5% Balance the budget/fiscal responsibility 5% Listen to the voters 4% Reverse Bill 115 (Teachers) 3% Better environmental policies 3% Reduce deficit/debt 2% Policy on public sector workers 2% Better leadership 2% Energy policy 2% Improve Education system 2% Improve social programs 2% Education funding 2% Improved working with unions 1% Other 15% Don't know 24% 14

Potential Candidates Potential leadership candidates: David McGuinty, Duncan 15 and Matthews best recognized, but bring most baggage

Q Below are some names that have been mentioned as potential candidates to be leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. For each of these people, please indicate if you would be a lot more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely or a lot less likely to vote for the Liberals in the next Ontario election if that person was their leader? If you don’t recognize the person, just say so. [asked of all 600 respondents] David McGuinty 2% 8% 11% 11% 23% 42% Dwight Duncan 2% 11% 12% 8% 16% 46% 3% 7% 9% 9% 17% 51% Chris Bentley 2% 4% 9% 6% 15% 60% Kathleen Wynne 3% 7% 7% 6% 13% 60% Jim Watson 2% 5% 9% 5% 12% 61% 1% 5% 8% 4% 13% 64% 2% 5% 8% 4% 12% 64% 1%5% 8% 6% 12% 64% John Wilkinson 1%4% 7% 5% 12% 66% 2% 6% 7% 3% 11% 67% 1%5% 6% 4% 12% 68% A lot more likely Somewhat more likely Neither more or less likely Somewhat less likely A lot less likely Do not recognize Note: ‘’Don’t know’ / ‘Refused’ not shown Top potential leadership candidates: Duncan doing better 16 than expected given his level of name recognition

70%

60% McGuinty

Duncan

50% Matthews

40% Bentley Watson Wynne Duguid Murray Naqvi Hoskins Wilkinson Sousa 30%

20% % Who Recognize Candidate Who % Recognize

10%

0% -25pp -20pp -15pp -10pp -5pp Net Positive Impact (% "More likely" - % "Less likely") Top potential leadership candidates: Most don’t know who 17 they prefer as new OLP leader

Q And who would you prefer as the new leader of the Ontario Liberal Party? [asked of all 600 respondents]

42%

26%

10%

5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Top potential leadership candidates: Kathleen Wynne has 18 best potential to bring in new Liberals while holding base

Q And who would you prefer as the new leader of the Ontario Liberal Party? [asked of all 600 respondents]

15% 15%

12%

8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Core Liberals Potential Liberals Show-me voters Ambivalent Opponents Vulnerable Liberals

Dwight Duncan Deb Matthews David McGuinty Jim Watson Kathleen Wynne

Note: Any potential candidates where n<10 have been removed. Pre-to-post test: Leadership race moves non-Liberals to 19 reconsider OLP And if your preferred candidate becomes their leader, how likely is it that you would vote for the Ontario Liberal Q party in the next election? +6% likely -17% unlikely to voting Liberal vote Liberal

30% 31% 27%

21% 21%

15% 13% 12% 11% 8% 8% 6%

Definitely voting Probably voting Not sure one Probably not Definitely not Don't know Liberal Liberal way or another voting Liberal voting Liberal

Pre Post Research-based strategic advice. Public Affairs • Corporate Communications • Fundraising

For more information, please contact: All intellectual property rights, including without limitation all copyright and know-how in the research techniques, research specifications or any information Greg Lyle or material provided in this document, shall remain the property of, and are Managing Director confidential to Innovative Research Group Inc. As such, any information Innovative Research Group Inc. contained herein may not be reproduced or translated, stored in a retrieval 56 The Esplanade, Suite 310 system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, Toronto ON | M5E 1A7 photocopying or otherwise to third parties without the prior written permission of Innovative Research Group Inc. (t) 416-642-6429 (f) 416-640-5988 (e) [email protected] © Copyright 2012 Innovative Research Group Inc. www.innovativeresearch.ca