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Professor Guy L. F. Holburn Energy Leaders Conference | April 5, 2013

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Professor Guy L. F. Holburn Energy Leaders Conference | April 5, 2013 Professor Guy L. F. Holburn Suncor Chair in Energy Policy Director, Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre Ivey Business School University of Western Ontario Energy Leaders Conference | April 5, 2013 OECD Countries Ontario Agencies Agencies / Boards / Boards Legislature Legislature Ministry (205 FTEs) Courts Executive Courts 100 90 10 13 80 70 30 40 60 50 40 12 30 52 clauses and powers clauses 20 29 10 4 0 Number of new ministerial directive ministerialNumber of new directive OEB Consumer Electricity Energy Green Energy Energy Total (2003- Protection and Restructuring Conservation Act (2009) Consumer 2010) Governance Act (2004) Leadership Act Protection Act Act (2003) (2006) (2010) OEB and OPA directive clauses Ministerial power clauses Other directives 3 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Number of Directives 4 2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Directives to OPA Letters to OPA Directives to OEB Directives to H1 and OPG 4 . Risk of costly policy mistakes . No public consultation needed, not transparent . No rationale or cost-benefit analysis required . Expert agency advice can be ignored . Policy surprises and instability . No notice required . Policy exposed to short-term political pressures and ministerial rotation . Fixes needed when mistakes become apparent 5 15700 MW Suspends 10700 MW 2700 MW by 2025 MW targets 10700 MW by 2015 by 2010 by 2018 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 Starts Stops Starts RESOP Modifies RESOP Re-instates new FIT Reduces RESOP RESOP FIT rates for biogas Minister of Energy Party Dates Duration (months) Deputy Minister Duration (months) Lyn McLeod Liberal Aug 89 - Oct 90 14 Jenny Carter NDP Oct 90 - Jul 91 9 William Ferguson NDP July 91 - Feb 92 7 Brian Charlton NDP Feb 92 - Feb 93 12 Bud Wildman NDP Feb 93 - Jun 95 28 Brenda Elliott PC Jun 95 - Aug 96 14 Norm Sterling PC Aug 96 - Oct 97 14 Jim Wilson PC Oct 1997 - Apr 2002 54 Bryne Purchase 44 Chris Stockwell PC Apr 2002 - Aug 2002 4 John Baird PC Aug 2002 - Oct 2003 14 Dwight Duncan Liberal Oct 2003 - Oct 2005 24 James Gillis 37 Donna Cansfield Liberal Oct 2005 - May 2006 7 Dwight Duncan Liberal May 2006 - Oct 2007 17 Peter Wallace 15 Gerry Phillips Liberal Oct 2007 - Jun 2008 8 George Smitherman Liberal Jun 2008 - Nov 2009 17 Saad Rafi 16 Gerry Phillips Liberal Nov 2009 - Jan 2010 2 Fareed Amin 7 Brad DuGuid Liberal Jan 2010 - Oct 2011 21 David Lindsay 19 Chris Bentley Liberal Oct 2011 - Feb 2013 16 Serge Imbrogno Average 16 23 Median 14 18 Ratings of stability of renewable energy policy by province Very Somewhat Somewhat Very unstable unstable Neutral stable stable Quebec 19 Saskatchewan 10 Nova Scotia 15 Alberta 17 New Brunswick 15 British Columbia 22 Ontario 41 Source: Ivey/U Calgary 2012 survey of energy firms active in wind power in Canada 8 Importance of factors in wind firms’ investment location decisions Ranking Factor 1st Natural wind conditions 2nd Policy stability 3rd Transmission capacity availability 4th Presence of MW capacity target Source: Ivey 2008 survey of energy firms active in wind power in Ontario ‘Down-size’ the Ministry of Energy • Move all staff to OPA, OEB or IESO Remove ministerial directive authority Strengthen agency appointment processes Specify major energy policy objectives in legislation (e.g. long term energy supply mix) 10 Improved policy consistency and predictability Increased investor confidence Lower cost of capital -> lower consumer rates More investment in infrastructure, improved reliability 11.
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