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Causesand Consequences of Higher Education Non CAUSESAND CONSEQUENCES OF HIGHER­ EDUCATION NON­ COMPLETION IN GERMANY The effect of pre-tertiary educational pathways on higher-education non­ completion and the labour market out­ comes of higher-education dropouts Inauguraldissertation zur Erlangung des akade­ mischen Grades eines Doktors/einer Doktorin der Sozialwissenschaften der Universität Mannheim Vorgelegt von Mirte Schollen Dekan der Fakultät für Sozialwissenschaften Prof. Dr. Michael Diehl Gutachter/in Prof. Dr. Irena Kogan (Universität Mannheim) Prof. Dr. Steffen Schindler (Universität Bamberg) Prof. Dr. Tobias Wolbring (Universität Mannheim) Tag der Disputation 21.04.2017 Erklärung gemäß § 9 Absatz 1 Buchstabe e) der Promotionsordnung der Universität Mannheim vom 27. Juni 2013: Ich versichere, diese Dissertation selbständig und ohne Hilfe Dritter verfasst zu haben. Sämtliche Quellen und Belege sind im Text deutlich gemacht und als solche gekennzeichnet. Diese Arbeit hat in gleicher oder ähnlicher Form noch keiner Prüfungsbehörde vorgelegen. Acknowledgment I would like to thank all persons who supported me during the time I worked on my dissertation with their knowledge, time, confidence and love. Content Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Motivation ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Overview of the chapters ..................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2 Part I – Causes of Higher-education Non-completion .................................... 7 2.1. Theory – Part I ..................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1. Sociological theories .................................................................................... 7 2.1.2. Psychological theories .................................................................................. 8 2.1.3. Economic theories ...................................................................................... 10 2.1.4. Summary .................................................................................................... 11 2.2. The institutional setting – Part I ......................................................................... 14 2.2.1. German education and training system ...................................................... 14 2.2.2. Pathways to higher-education entry qualification ...................................... 15 2.3. Previous research – Part I .................................................................................. 17 2.3.1. Guiding research question – Part I ............................................................. 21 Chapter 3 Part II – Consequences of Higher-education Non-completion ..................... 22 3.1. Theory – Part II .................................................................................................. 22 3.1.1. Human capital theory ................................................................................. 22 3.1.2. Signalling and screening theory ................................................................. 24 3.1.3. Matching and job competition theory ........................................................ 25 3.1.4. Credentialism theory .................................................................................. 27 3.1.5. Summary .................................................................................................... 27 3.2. The institutional setting – Part II ....................................................................... 29 3.2.1. Specificity of the German education and training system .......................... 29 3.2.2. Specificity of the West German labour market system .............................. 30 3.2.3. Structural changes in the education and labour market system .................. 31 3.3. Previous research – Part II ................................................................................. 33 3.3.1. Guiding research question – Part II ............................................................ 35 Chapter 4 Data .............................................................................................................. 36 4.1. The National Educational Panel Study .............................................................. 36 4.2. Starting Cohort 6 ................................................................................................ 36 4.3. Starting Cohort 5 ................................................................................................ 37 4.4. Why use the NEPS ............................................................................................. 39 Chapter 5 Pathways in and out of Higher Education: Effects of Prior Educational and Vocational Experiences on Higher-Education Non-completion in Germany ...................................................................................................................... 41 5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 41 5.2. Theory and hypotheses ...................................................................................... 43 5.2.1. Vocational training ..................................................................................... 44 5.2.2. Track mobility ............................................................................................ 45 5.2.3. Alternative pathways .................................................................................. 45 5.3. Data and analytical approach ............................................................................. 46 5.3.1. Data ............................................................................................................ 46 5.3.2. Analytical approach ................................................................................... 47 5.3.3. Dependent variable ..................................................................................... 49 5.3.4. Independent variables ................................................................................. 49 5.3.5. Control variables ........................................................................................ 50 5.4. Results ................................................................................................................ 53 5.4.1. Descriptive overview ................................................................................. 53 5.4.2. Competing risk models .............................................................................. 54 5.5. Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 58 Chapter 6 Higher-Education Non-Completion in Germany – Gender Differences in STEM Fields ................................................................................................. 61 6.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 61 6.2. Previous research ............................................................................................... 63 6.3. Theory ................................................................................................................ 64 6.3.1. Pre-tertiary experiences .............................................................................. 65 6.3.2. In-college experiences ................................................................................ 67 6.4. Data and analytical approach ............................................................................. 69 6.4.1. Data ............................................................................................................ 69 6.4.2. Variables .................................................................................................... 70 6.4.3. Analytical approach ................................................................................... 72 6.5. Results ................................................................................................................ 74 6.5.1. Descriptive overview ................................................................................. 74 6.5.2. Logistic regressions .................................................................................... 76 6.6. Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 81 Chapter 7 Labour Market Outcomes of Higher-Education Dropouts in Germany: How Formal Vocational Qualifications Shape Transitions and Occupational Status ...................................................................................................................... 84 7.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 85 7.2. Previous research ............................................................................................... 86 7.3. The German post-secondary educational system ............................................... 87 7.4. Theories on education-to-work transitions ........................................................ 89 7.5. Data and analytical approach ............................................................................. 91 7.5.1. Data ............................................................................................................ 91 7.5.2. Variables ...................................................................................................
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