Modelling Coastal Vulnerability Design and evaluation of a vulnerability model for tropical storms and floods Modelling Coastal Vulnerability Design and evaluation of a vulnerability model for tropical storms and floods Proefschrift Ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof.dr.ir. J.T. Fokkema, voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 10 november 2009 om 12.30 uur door Marcel MARCHAND Doctorandus wis- en natuurkunde geboren te Hoek van Holland Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: Prof.dr.ir. W.A.H. Thissen copromotor: Dr. J.H. Slinger Samenstelling promotiecommissie: Rector Magnificus voorzitter Prof.dr.ir. W.A.H. Thissen Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Dr. J.H. Slinger Technische Universiteit Delft, copromotor Prof.dr. E. Penning-Rowsell Middlesex University, United Kingdom Prof.dr. A. van der Veen Universiteit Twente Prof.dr. P. van der Zaag UNESCO-IHE, Delft Prof.dr.ir. H.J. de Vriend Technische Universiteit Delft Prof.dr.ir. M.J.F. Stive Technische Universiteit Delft Copyright © 2009 Marcel Marchand and IOS Press All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys- tem, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. ISBN 978-1-60750-069-8 Publisher IOS Press BV Nieuwe Hemweg 6B 1013 BG Amsterdam Netherlands tel: +31 20 688 3355 fax: +31 20 687 0019 e-mail: [email protected] www.iospress.nl LEGAL NOTICE The publisher is not responsible for the use which might be made of the following in- formation. PRINTED IN THE NETHERLANDS Preface The Andhra Pradesh Cyclone Hazard Mitigation Project commenced in August 1999 as part of a World Bank loan to the Government of Andhra Pradesh, India. This pro- ject became unique in several ways. A Real Time Operational Early Warning System for cyclone related storm surges was developed. The wind hazard and rainfall that ac- company such storms were addressed. The reduction in the long term vulnerability through integrated coastal zone management also received attention. Indeed, an Ex- pert Decision Support System (EDSS) for ICZM for the analysis of the various policy options that could reduce vulnerability in the long term was developed. In September 2006 I began this PhD research at the Faculty for Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology with co-financing from my em- ployer Deltares. By then the EDSS – ICZM was already completed by an interdisci- plinary team which I had the privilege of leading. The experience of developing and finalising the model inspired me to undertake this PhD research focussing on both the design process and the evaluation of the model. By reflecting critically on the model design and its applicability, this research generates new knowledge on the integration of vulnerability aspects in long term sustainable development. Hence, the model in this research is the object of enquiry, not its result. Therefore the thesis consists of three parts: Part 1 describes the experience, Part 2 is a literature study and Part 3 con- sists of the evaluation of the model. This structure reflects the somewhat unconven- tional character of the research set-up as reported in this thesis. v CONTENTS Preface............................................................................................................................... v Summary............................................................................................................................1 Samenvatting .....................................................................................................................7 1 Introduction............................................................................................................13 1.1 Coastal hazards, damage and human suffering ..............................................13 1.2 Coastal vulnerability and disaster management .............................................14 1.2.1 Disaster management: global initiatives......................................................14 1.2.2 Disaster management in practice broadens its scope..................................16 1.2.3 Vulnerability reduction as an ill-structured problem..................................16 1.3 The need for new knowledge and tools ..........................................................17 1.4 The differential nature of vulnerability...........................................................19 1.5 Research objective............................................................................................19 1.6 Research questions ...........................................................................................20 1.7 The research strategy........................................................................................21 1.7.1 Three research perspectives..........................................................................22 1.7.2 The Model perspective .................................................................................23 1.7.3 The Applications perspective.......................................................................24 1.7.4 The Context perspective ...............................................................................24 1.8 Structure of the thesis.......................................................................................25 Part 1: Describing the Experience .............................................................................. 29 2 Design and application of an Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) for coastal Andhra Pradesh.......................................................................................31 2.1 Describing the process: the Andhra Pradesh Cyclone Hazard Mitigation Project (APCHMP) ..........................................................................................31 2.1.1 The assignment..............................................................................................31 2.1.2 The study approach .......................................................................................32 2.1.3 Towards integration ......................................................................................34 2.2 Design of the EDSS.........................................................................................36 2.2.1 The design process........................................................................................36 2.2.2 Main features of the EDSS...........................................................................37 2.2.3 Functional design of the EDSS ....................................................................38 2.3 Application of the EDSS for the Godavari Delta...........................................44 2.3.1 Brief introduction to the Godavari Delta.....................................................44 2.3.2 Input data.......................................................................................................49 2.4 Calibration of the DSS .....................................................................................60 2.4.1 Calibration of the Socio-economic Assessment Module (SAM)...............60 2.4.2 Calibration of the Environmental Assessment Module (EAM).................62 2.4.3 Calibration of the Cyclone Vulnerability Module (CVM).........................67 2.5 Scenario and strategy analysis with the EDSS...............................................72 Part 2: Literature Study............................................................................................... 77 3 Defining vulnerability...........................................................................................79 3.1 Definitions ........................................................................................................79 3.2 Theories on vulnerability.................................................................................83 3.2.1 Causes of vulnerability .................................................................................83 3.2.2 Theories .........................................................................................................87 vii Contents 3.3 Making vulnerability operational – a conceptual model................................95 3.3.1 Hazard............................................................................................................96 3.3.2 Exposure ........................................................................................................99 3.3.3 Sensitivity......................................................................................................99 3.3.4 Resilience.......................................................................................................99 3.3.5 A working definition of vulnerability........................................................101 3.4 Measuring vulnerability.................................................................................101 3.4.1 Existing vulnerability assessment methods...............................................101 3.4.2 Evaluation of existing methods..................................................................104 3.5 From assessment to modelling ......................................................................105 3.5.1 Why should we model vulnerability? ........................................................105 3.5.2 What makes vulnerability modelling difficult?.........................................106 3.5.3 Model building blocks ................................................................................107