A Survey on Tidal Analysis and Forecasting Methods
Science of Tsunami Hazards A SURVEY ON TIDAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING METHODS FOR TSUNAMI DETECTION Sergio Consoli(1),* European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, TP 680, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy Diego Reforgiato Recupero National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Cognitive Sciences and Technologies, Via Gaifami 18 - 95028 Catania, Italy R2M Solution, Via Monte S. Agata 16, 95100 Catania, Italy. Vanni Zavarella European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, TP 680, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy Submitted on December 2013 ABSTRACT Accurate analysis and forecasting of tidal level are very important tasks for human activities in oceanic and coastal areas. They can be crucial in catastrophic situations like occurrences of Tsunamis in order to provide a rapid alerting to the human population involved and to save lives. Conventional tidal forecasting methods are based on harmonic analysis using the least squares method to determine harmonic parameters. However, a large number of parameters and long-term measured data are required for precise tidal level predictions with harmonic analysis. Furthermore, traditional harmonic methods rely on models based on the analysis of astronomical components and they can be inadequate when the contribution of non-astronomical components, such as the weather, is significant. Other alternative approaches have been developed in the literature in order to deal with these situations and provide predictions with the desired accuracy, with respect also to the length of the available tidal record. These methods include standard high or band pass filtering techniques, although the relatively deterministic character and large amplitude of tidal signals make special techniques, like artificial neural networks and wavelets transform analysis methods, more effective.
[Show full text]