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ASPI Counterterrorism Yearbook 2021

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ASPI Counterterrorism Yearbook 2021 COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2021 S OF AS AR P E I S Y T Y R T A T N E E G Y W T 2 0 1 01 - 2 0 2 ABOUT ASPI The Australian Strategic Policy Institute was formed in 2001 as an independent, non‑partisan think tank. Its core aim is to provide the Australian Government with fresh ideas on Australia’s defence, security and strategic policy choices. ASPI is responsible for informing the public on a range of strategic issues, generating new thinking for government and harnessing strategic thinking internationally. ASPI’s sources of funding are identified in our Annual Report, online at http://www.aspi.org.au and in the acknowledgements section of individual publications. ASPI remains independent in the content of the research and in all editorial judgements. It is incorporated as a company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPI’s core values are collegiality, originality and innovation, quality and excellence and independence. ASPI’s publications—including this paper—are not intended in any way to express or reflect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reflect the personal views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position of ASPI on any particular issue. ABOUT THE COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY CENTRE ASPI’s Counter‑Terrorism Policy Centre (CTPC) was established in late 2015. The centre undertakes research across the spectrum of counterterrorism topics, facilitates dialogue and discussion amongst stakeholders, and provides advice to government, community and industry stakeholders, with a particular focus on what can be done to counter terrorism. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ASPI would like to thank the authors for their contributions, insights and recommendations, as without them the Counterterrorism yearbook 2021 could not have been compiled. Special thanks to the Hon Peter Dutton, MP, Minister for Home Affairs for providing the preface to this 5th edition of the yearbook. The editors would also like to thank Michael Shoebridge for his additional editorial recommendations; as well as Steve Clark, Emily French and James Dixon, the ASPI publication team, for their assistance with the production of this publication. Finally, thanks to everyone at ASPI for their ongoing support. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in relation to the subject matter covered. It is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering any form of professional or other advice or services. No person should rely on the contents of this publication without first obtaining advice from a qualified professional person. No specific sponsorship was received to fund production of this report COUNTERTERRORISM YEARBOOK 2021 Edited by Leanne Close and Daria Impiombato © The Australian Strategic Policy Institute Limited 2021 ASPI This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Level 2, Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, 40 Macquarie Street mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, Barton ACT 2600 stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Australia Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. Notwithstanding the above, Educational Institutions (including Schools, Independent Colleges, Universities, Tel + 61 2 6270 5100 and TAFEs) are granted permission to make copies of copyrighted works strictly for Fax + 61 2 6273 9566 educational purposes without explicit permission from ASPI and free of charge. [email protected] www.aspi.org.au First published March 2021 www.aspistrategist.org.au Facebook/ASPI.org Published in Australia by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute @ASPI_org ISSN 2209‑2420 Contents PREFACE 05 THE HON PETER DUTTON MP INTRODUCTION 07 LEANNE CLOSE THE CURRENT TERRORISM ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2020: THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF TERRORISM 11 THOMAS MORGAN, OLIVIA ADAMS AND DR DAVID HAMMOND TERRORISM IN NEW ZEALAND: HOW A DIFFERENT APPROACH MIGHT HAVE PREVENTED THE CHRISTCHURCH MOSQUE ATTACKS 15 DR JOHN BATTERSBY LONE ACTOR TERRORISM IN 2019 AND 2020: TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS 19 CHRISTOPHER WINTER AND RAMÓN SPAAIJ EVOLVING TERRORISM THREATS AND COUNTERTERRORISM RESPONSES DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 23 JEREMY DOUGLAS AND NIKI ESSE DE LANG THE IMPACT OF ONLINE PLATFORMS, SOCIAL MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY ON TERRORISM THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON EXTREMISM 29 LEVI J WEST BOOGALOO BOIS: THE BIRTH OF A ‘MOVEMENT’, FROM MEMES TO REAL-WORLD VIOLENCE 33 ELISE THOMAS ASSESSING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREATS POSED BY HOAX DEVICES IN TERRORIST ATTACKS AND EFFECTIVE COUNTERMEASURES 39 DR JOSHUA SINAI TERRORISM FINANCING, SUPPORT AND THE ORGANISED CRIME NEXUS TERRORIST FINANCING: GLOBAL POLICY CHALLENGES AND INITIATIVES IN 2020 43 DR GORDON HOOK COUNTERING TERRORIST FINANCING: STRENGTHENING INDONESIA–AUSTRALIA COLLABORATION 49 SYLVIA LAKSMI DEMYSTIFYING THE TERROR–CRIME NEXUS IN AUSTRALIA 55 DR JOHN COYNE FIGHTING ORGANISED CRIME, PREVENTING TERRORISM: THE ITALIAN CASE 61 DARIA IMPIOMBATO REVISITING THE TERROR–CRIME NEXUS IN LATIN AMERICA: MILITANT PROTO-STATE GOVERNANCE AND CHALLENGES TO STATE SECURITY 67 DR ALEXANDRA PHELAN 03 COUNTERING AND PREVENTING VIOLENT EXTREMISM 71 AN EVOLUTION OF TERRORISM: THE INTERSECTION OF CYBERCRIME AND TERRORIST ACTIVITY 71 DR ANNE ALY MP THE EVOLUTION OF RESILIENCE TO VIOLENT EXTREMISM 77 PROFESSOR MICHELE GROSSMAN OPERATIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM AND MANAGING THE RISK 83 COMMANDER SANDRA BOOTH AND ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DR NATALIE DAVIS UNDERSTANDING TRANSITIONS TO VIOLENCE AND THE ROLE OF PRACTITIONER–ACADEMIC PARTNERSHIPS 87 DEPUTY COMMISSIONER ROSS GUENTHER AND ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DEBRA SMITH COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM: THE NEW SOUTH WALES APPROACH 91 PIA VAN DE ZANDT, AFTAB MALIK AND MADELEINE COOREY THE NEW FAR RIGHT: CONSTRUCTION OF HATRED AGAINST THE ISLAMIC COMMUNITY IN MULTICULTURAL AUSTRALIA 97 ANGEL ADAMS YOUNG PEOPLE AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM IN THE COVID-19 CONTEXT 101 PETA LOWE THE IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON VIOLENT EXTREMISM 107 LYDIA KHALIL THE IMPORTANCE OF INTER-OFFICE COORDINATION IN COUNTERTERRORISM: THE ISRAELI CASE STUDY 113 PROFESSOR BOAZ GANOR ABOUT THE AUTHORS 119 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 127 Preface THE HON PETER DUTTON MP Minister for Home Affairs Terrorism poses an enduring and evolving Over that time, the Australian Government threat requiring a coordinated and collaborative has invested an additional $2.3 billion to approach between governments, the private strengthen our national response and support sector and community. Addressing the threat the outstanding men and women of our security, requires sustained effort and responsive policies police and intelligence communities. It is thanks that are informed by a robust understanding of to their efforts that Australians can live safely, the changing risk environment and operational enjoying the freedoms we do. experience of law enforcement. As we learned from the horrific 2019 London As the Director‑General of ASIO has observed, Bridge attack and 2020 Streatham attack in the the threat from Islamic extremism endures, with UK, convicted terrorists can pose a very real and groups including the Islamic State of Iraq and ongoing threat to public safety when they are the Levant and al‑Qaeda continuing to inspire released back into the community after serving attacks globally and in Australia. However, this their sentences. In Australia, we have introduced does not mean our agencies are blind to other a presumption against parole for all convicted extremist threats. Unfortunately, there are groups terrorist offenders, as well as critical measures of individuals in Australia motivated by Nazism, providing for the continued detention of high‑risk white supremacy and other hateful ideologies. terrorist offenders after the conclusion of their We will not tolerate any form of extremism that custodial sentences, and control orders, where a resorts to intimidation or violence to spread a court finds that relevant thresholds are met. message of hate. With 15 high‑risk terrorist offenders due for At the time of writing, the Australian Government release in the next five years, the government is in the process of listing Sonnenkrieg Division has sought to further strengthen these laws as a terrorist organisation under the Criminal by introducing a Bill to establish an extended Code. Sonnenkrieg Division’s encouragement, supervision order scheme. The scheme will promotion and glorification of terrorism has provide a robust alternative in circumstances inspired UK‑based extremists, and has the where continued detention is not available, potential to similarly inspire Australia‑based ensuring that high‑risk terrorist offenders who are extremists. Listing ensures that Criminal released into the community are subject to close Code offences with penalties of up to 25 years supervision in proportion to the level of risk they imprisonment apply to this organisation. pose to community safety. The Parliamentary Joint Committee on The Australian Government continues to work in Intelligence and Security is also undertaking an partnership with our regional and international inquiry into extremist movements and radicalism allies to assess and counter the threat of in Australia. Once the inquiry is complete, terrorism. The government has put
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