“The Dynamics of Executive Approval in Fifth Republic France: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis”* Richard S. Conley Assistant Professor Department of Political Science University of Florida 234 Anderson Hall P.O. Box 117325 Gainesville, FL 32611 (352) 392-0262 x 297
[email protected] http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/rconley Abstract This article is the first to develop a theoretical framework for systematically testing the dynamics of aggregate, monthly presidential and prime ministerial approval in Fifth Republic France (1959-2003). The empirical model combines general economic trends, “rally effects” from presidential foreign policy/military actions, socio-cultural factors specific to French political life, including domestic strife and strikes, as well as the three experiences of cohabitation or “divided government,” to gauge changes in monthly public approval for the five French presidents spanning de Gaulle to Chirac and their prime ministers. The results of the time-series analysis suggest that many of the factors presumed to affect presidential approval in the U.S., notably the state of the economy, impact French presidents’ approval in a similar way. However, French presidents do not gain a significant short term boost from either foreign/military actions or from their annual Bastille Day interview. Instead, domestic strife, such as terrorist attacks in the homeland by international groups or regional independence movements (e.g., Corsica, Brittany), produce a more substantive short-term rally effect. National strikes, frequently provoked by governmental policies opposed by France’s formidable unions, drive down approval significantly in the short-term for both the president and the prime minister. Finally, caeteris paribus, both Mitterrand and Chirac won the public opinion duel vis-à-vis opposition prime ministers.