Warsaw, May2016 relation to thepost1989, so called3 especially European, policy. ThoughPiS’s political project has beenusually analysed in terms of its foreign, influences also extent great a to Change”, “Good the as presented and Kaczyński, Jarosław The deepreformby ofthestate announced LawandJusticeparty(PiS) and its unquestioned leader, Eugeniusz Smolar–Centre forInternationalRelations Grzegorz Gromadzki –StefanBatoryFoundation Piotr Buras –European CouncilonForeign Relations Adam Balcer–WiseEuropa Institute foreign policy Assumptions ofLawandJusticeparty Change inPoland,butwhatchange? cance ofNATOpartnership withtheUSA,relations membership, withRussiaaswell as supportfor signifi- fundamental the like areas, key in interests strategic Polish exception. no was case this and coexist, to tend continuity and change of Elements 1989. in like circumstances, exceptional in unless Foreign policy is not an area in which changes take place at revolutionary pace or on a very great scale ments whatever theirpoliticalcolour. Polish transformation after1989.Theseaimswere effectively realised by allpresidents andgovern- of doctrine the was “Europeanisation” Union. European the words other in structures, economic and anchor Polandpermanentlyinthewesternsecuritysystem –i.e.NATO, andEuropean political, legal The generally accepted strategic aim after 1989 was to avoid the “twilight zone” of uncertainty and to a whole after1989. that shaped not only policy but also the imagination of the Polish political elite and broad society as assumptions key of number a of abandonment the implies supporters intellectual their and circles quarter last the in policy of a century, which,atthelevel ofpolicy declarations madeby representatives of thegovernment foreign in reorientation far-reaching most the implies concept Change” “Good The role. vital a plays it, in place Poland’s and Europe world, the of perception the Poland, for socio-economic transformation ofthe last25years,there isnodoubtthatinitsalternative concept

rd rd Republic institutional-political model andtheresults ofthe

1 Stefan Batory Foundation tion of Poland’s role in international relations. The results of suchchangesat the level of perceptions ence therealisation of theparty and national interest) but alsothelong-termperception andevalua- Polish politics are not only immediate choices and decisions (though these do of course directly influ- in change current this in stake At representation. perfect their not is action actual if even sentiments and attitudes social shape actively also may but zeitgeist of expression an only not are they matter; We shall concentrate on the ideological and conceptual dimension of this policy because ideas do text is change and so it does not address the abovementioned elements of foreign policy continuity.foreignpolicy of abovementionedelements addressthe not does it so and change textis this of centre the At consequences? possible and expressions basis, ideological its are What Europe. This report isanattempttosummarisethecurrent foreign policyreorientation, especiallyasregards process ofPoland’s future modernisation. developmental requirements of the Polish economy and the role played by the European Union in the cal and socio-cultural model dominant in western Europe. Of significance is also the perception of the foundations ofthe ruling party, its understanding of the nation, sovereignty and attitude to the politi analysis of the situation of the EU and the world, but is also to a great extent built into the ideological for asanopportunity fromwhich, PiS’sPoland, view,of point result eventhe an or threat.is of risk a shift a This as appears perceived unambiguously been hitherto had that Europe of redefinition a – is in this perception that lies perhaps the most fundamental difference essential to the “good change” the PiS political-intellectual community and to a significant extent influences foreign policy strategy. It ble disintegration andbasically doomed to failure, at least in its current form, shapesthe mind-set of pessimism asregards thefuture ofEuropean integration. Thevision of theEUasundergoing inevita The most significant element of Poland’s foreign policy paradigm redefinition by PiS is based on a the priorityofradical rebuilding ofstateandsociety. tance. Evensuchdamageininternational relations is presumably perceived assecondary, setagainst considered asPoland’s mainally, whichinthePiSsecuritypolicy vision is ascribedaparticularimpor- the vast majority of theEuropean Parliament,it also caused serioustensionswiththeUnitedStates, to Tribunal, Constitutional mention an obvious example, the resulted not only over in a confrontation with dispute the European Commission and The expectations. their to adapt to willing or opinions cepted legal-institutional commitments initscalculations.Norisitsoready toacceptforeign partners’ previouslyac- account into take to likely not is paradigm,“Europeanisation”strong the operated that previousunlikeadministrations,government, PiS the that means all above institutions the of change It is,webelieve, adirect consequenceofradicalism indomesticpolicy;thenecessityoffundamental cerned notsomuchatthedeclarative level but atthatofconcrete policy pronouncements andactions. domestic objectives. This assumptionis not, ofcourse,openly declared, butthe order may be dis- to secondary as policy foreign treats administration PiS the government, post-1989 other any Unlike tive nature. Itisnotjustsymbolicorrhetorical. we believe thereorientationdespite, theseelements,isofaqualita- alongside, orperhaps occurring all in the PiS slogan: “We’re rising from our knees”. We do not question some aspects of continuity, but above expressed policy, foreign in discontinuity of aspect the emphasises strongly itself party ruling the because only not and case, the not is this But superficial. is change the that suggest might That in somecaseshasdefactocontinuedmanypoliciesofitspredecessors.tain importantdecisionsand Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations, remain unchanged. The PiS government has also not reversed cer- ses. 1 The problems andchallengesofPolishforeign policyinvarioussectors shallbetheobjectofseparate analy deep - 1 - -

2 Stefan Batory Foundation life as the main reference point defining the sense of every living human being’s human living existence. of every sense the referencedefining main point the as life ers over the head of Poland”. of head the over ers pow- of concert distinctive a create Germany and “Russia 2015 February in interview an in stated ter, Minis- Foreign nowWaszczykowski, Witold MP then the As Poland. to unfavourable especially affairs political categories, of the balance of power as well as of the “concert of powers” considered a state of geo- in bythinking stronglydetermined EU) the relations(evenwithin international of vision a is This national interests withintheEU framework. of fusion or merging the is there where cases the or result referendum by confirmed nation the of the EU and its other members from the moment of accession on the strength of a sovereign decision with sovereignty state of sharing “everyday” of consequences the of matters around skirts rationale ital “N” in its programme documents). organisingThe nationisthefundamental principle ofthePiSpartyideology(writtenmainlywitha cap- Nation andSovereignty stronger thaninthetimehorizonlimitedtoonegovernment’s terminoffice. and sensitivities, bothinthenationalandinternationaldimension,maybefeltlongterm 5 4 Ibid. democratic mechanismthenationstatehasalsogainedsovereignty Ibid. inthecommunity”. 3 likacji-prezesa-pis. pl/polityka/111772-jaroslaw-kaczynski-raport-o-stanie-rzeczypospolitej-tylko-u-nas-fragmenty-programowej-pub- with RomanCatholicism.SeeJarosław Kaczyński:“RaportostanieRzeczypospolitej”,31.03.2011,http://wpolityce. semiotic system,culture, historicalfate andsolidarity.” Asshown further,thissemioticsystemiscloselyidentified 2 eignty if there is a possibility of leaving the EU by unilateral decision of the national authorities”. sover- of loss no is “there opinion Kaczyński’s Jarosław in membership, EU vs. sovereignty national in relations withotheractors,will the smallest concessions possible.Inthematterofrelation of advantages gaining of capability the so and influence effective its about is this member, EU a of case interest. its national realise and A stronger sovereignty increases define the importance ofa given state on the international arena. Inthe to state a of capacity the or independence”, of dimension “real the as sovereignty define can one speeches, Kaczyński’s Jarosław of basis the On powerment. em- and sovereignty are nation fully-fledged a of features important most two the PiS, to According else. all above defended be to ought “Polishness” of model this that belief the of expression an is geneity, Catholic religion to the national identity (see below), as well as the value of cultural and ethnic homo- the of significance the experience, historical Polish of nature specific the on emphasis The citizens). nation isabove allanorganic cultural andhistorical community, notapolitical entity (a communityof orientation) could differ in particular cases. There is also the Visegrad Group within which, often not often which, within Group Visegrad the also is There cases. particular in differ could orientation) agreement instrategic matters onthebasicassumptionthatpartners’interests (andtheirgeopolitical the defenceofcommoninterests butonthesearch forcommon ground,compromise andnegotiated the Weimar Triangle, which has been built on another philosophy: not on geographical proximity and ern European countries. This is being promoted in parallel to an emphasison distancing itself from as an attempt to balance out the influence of Germany and Russia with an alliance of central and east- ek,47653.html. http://www.fronda.pl/a/witold-waszczykowski-dla-frondapl-potrzeba-mezow-stanu-a-nie-politycznych-gier Thanks tothenation,„theindividualcouldexist asa person,lifehastaken onameaningandthrough the According toPiS,„The Nationisareal communityconnectedby tiesoflanguageandby anentire broad 5 It is within this worldview that PiS promotes its “Intermarium” concept “Intermarium” its promotes PiS that worldview this within is It 2 From this perspective, the nation also plays a key role in social 3 Here the 4 This -

3 Stefan Batory Foundation national minorities’ rights and regional identity (e.g. in Silesia and Kashubia), which might undermine possible withinacentralised and homogeneouscountry. HencePiS’s suspicionofdecentralisation, as unified as be to ought nation Polish the PiS, of opinion the in that, means arena international the on state the of position the of weakening the and affairs internal in involvement external of fear The other states and international subjects”, international and states other to regards as state nation a of sovereignty “the means relations international in which, sovereignty, ests. Themostimportantpurposeofthestate,according toPiS ideology, istheprotection of national keyinter- a national realisationis the the Accordingstate of Jarosławfor the to instrument Kaczyński, whose currently strongest bondisacommonoppositiontoEuropean refugeepolicy andmigration. but realised are projects sectoral valuable interest, of differences from resulting difficulties without 9 Ibid. 8 (in Polish). 7 6 Ibid. Kaczyński defines the internal opposition as German’s fifth column. According to this logic,Berlin tothis defends, with the aid of its JarosławPolish pro-German forces, its influence and economic interests in Poland. today column. According fifth that as German’s means dimension opposition internal external the defines the Kaczyński and internal the between relation close The PiS wontheParliamentaryelections. able, dangerous to the nation and a threat to Polishness in the current and historical dimension”. unaccept - areexistencesovereignty or its undermining of form any and order, highest the of value a for existed state Polish sovereign no 123 – meaning another got also has state own our Poles us “for independent, sovereign and autonomousstate is proven by history. The PiS programme states that the economy and media. in dominance “condominium”)German German-Russian permitted a it into as arena(or international ing to Jarosław Kaczyński, the previous government had turned Poland into a vassal of Germany in the in thefuture, they opposethestrengthening ofPolish sovereignty ininternational relations. Accord- (especially German) as well as a large part of the American establishment because, either currently or encounter resistance of external actors defined by Jarosław Kaczyński as the European establishment the elimination of the possibility of external interference. According to PiS, internal changes in Poland the international level is the sine qua non condition for conducting essential internal changes through racy as the guarantee of autonomous foreign policy. However, the securing ofPolish sovereignty at consolidation ofpower inthecountryby therulingpartybasedonmodelofmajority rule democ- gramme documents indicate a close identification of internal and external sovereignty. The first is the pro- party and politicians PiS of statements The country”. the inside mechanism democratic efficient On the other hand, national sovereignty has an internal dimension as it signifies “the functioning of an to bea unionofnationstatesorcommunitynations. believes that the state can only be national and in effect the European Union, if it is to survive, ought https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCK_biZe_KU. ProgrammeThe LawandJusticeParty’s 2014,p.11,http://old.pis.org.pl/dokumenty.php?s=partia&iddoc=164 years. We couldnotdecideonourown fate,whichiswhywehaverecognised thePolishstateas 8 This dominance was supposed to This dominancewassupposed have ended on25th October 2015 when 6 inotherwords practically against theEU. Thevalueofthe 7 PiS 9

4 Stefan Batory Foundation support orwhetherthisiswhatthey actuallybelieve. It isanopenquestionwhetherleadingPiS politicians treat theseviews instrumentally to gainpolitical power.in governmentthen Polish the cooperationof the with President’sSmolensk aeroplanethe at down brought that conspiracy Russian a was there 2010 in that belief the is thinking of type this of conspiracyof theforeign theoriesintheunderstanding domestic situation.Themainsymptom and Macierewicz,(Antoni leaders PiS declaredcertain the of with support sociated Jarosław for Kaczyński) the overt, and in particular covert, cooperation between internal and external enemies have been as- dominant inWestern Europe seenasathreat totraditional Polishvalues. about thequestioningofpoliticalon liberalmodel based democracy andsocio-cultural values also but principle, Europe” more “the along integration of idea the about or “hegemony”, or ination dom- overcomingGerman the the about much so just not is this all because is This politics. domestic has not only a conceptual and political basis but also a cultural one, deeply rooted in the soil of the partners), closest as France also and Germany (with mainstream Union’s the with cooperation close nition somewhatAs aresult, differ. thecurrently observedreversal ofpro-Europeanfor policy setup defi- by must assumptions, earlier the of some least at questions which PiS, by lead transformation democraticthe socioculturalalso and policy economic rolesystem, their then model), “second”the in of terms (in model” “western the to directed adaptation country transformation to the of “first” the in the process set in motion. In other words, in-so-far as Europe and the West fulfilled a certain function to a new stage–theerosion of thehitherto Polish consensus appearsasaunavoidableside-effectof wards certainelementsofthetransformation modeloritseffects–maybealsoasymbolic passage If onecaninterpret theresult ofthe2015 elections as thestrongest voice of oppositionafter1989 to- policy, ofplacingitselfattheverycentre oftheEuropean Union. Poland’s real long-term, strategic interests. This wasthe deep meaningofconductinga ‘mainstream’ did assumethenegotiationofdifferences andtheachievement ofcompromise fortherealisation of sation. This approach accepted the existence of the differences of some particular interests, though it tegration thatwere notonlyachoiceofinternationalorientationbutonecivilisation and moderni- of itsstages.There isnodoubtthatit concerned thebasicdirections of European andtransatlantic in- each accompanied that narrative a was West” the of “myth the and transformation, Polish the drove assumption thatthere wasabasicconsensusinPolandaround suchstrategic aims.Thisconsensus Polish foreign policy since 1989 was defined and realised by the political elite on the basis of a default the recognition oftheEuropean integration asahistorical opportunity andapillarofmodernisation. “Poland’sof necessity NATO.the and returnof Europe”EU West, cept to the the in in embedded Thus criticism bybeen subjecttofundamental PiS,wasclosely relatedcon- fundamental toaunambiguous eign policy should comeasnosurpriseatleast because thewholepost1989 transformation, thathas The interrelation betweenthe domestic political agenda forradical change andthenew courseinfor- The critiqueofthewesternmodel all. above Germany powers, external of advantage the to used be and unity national acji-prezesa-pis. polityka/111772-jaroslaw-kaczynski-raport-o-stanie-rzeczypospolitej-tylko-u-nas-fragmenty-programowej-publik- regions, ofwhichaparticularaspectisDonaldTusk’s http://wpolityce.pl/ emphasisonhisKashubianidentity”. their disloyalty toPoland.PiScriticisedPO(CivicPlatformParty) for„strongly underlining theimportanceof ouflaged Germanallegiance.”However, activistsostentatiouslydemonstrate atleastsomeofthisminority’s identity isjustanotherwayofdefiningoneselfotherthanas Polish andpr 10 According toPiS,„Historically, there isnosuchthingastheSilesiannation.Onemightaddthat esumably theacceptanceofcam 10 The vision of -

5 Stefan Batory Foundation is bestinEuropean tradition: truefreedom ofspeech.Itisuswhoare thebulwarkofreal Europe”. is threatened in western Europe, defending real freedom of speech, Polandis also defending what that religion of defence the “in more, is What Poland. in permission” no is “there which for West the nation, it also protected it”. Jarosław Kaczyński believes that there are certain tendencies flowing from a specific role in our history that differs from that of other nations. It not only created and civilised the distinguishing it from all the other EU members. According to PiS programme, “the Church has played declared intentionto introduce the Hungarian modelin Poland oughtto be considered. often leader’s PiS the that context this in is It judiciary). Tribunal(the Constitutional the by limited be may circumstances exceptional in only which legislative), (the majority parliamentary the by ported sup- position dominant and first the assumes executive the as apply, not does model pluralistic the this, In model. democracy majoritarian the with party ruling the of identification the as well as ances They confirm the critical position of PiS to liberal democracy based on the rule of law, checks-and-bal- liamentary majority. Thesechangeswere implemented with the electoral victory of October 2015. a byexecutive supported the of activity the unblock would which competences, its limit radically This iswhenPiS developed aproject therulesofTribunal’sfor changing functioninginorder to TribunalConstitutional the that impossibilism”.decided source“legal Kaczyński main such the of was Jarosław (2006–2007), minister prime a and leader PiS a As permitted”. being nothing the to leading law interpreting of way specific “as words other in Poland, governing with problems the the of sourceat opinion his in being impossibilism”, “legal the criticised Kaczyński Jarosław ago, years Many above all in the Copenhagen Criteria, the fulfilment of which is a necessary condition for EU accession. Hungary) and EU institutions as a standard political model for the community. This model is expressed aspects of the liberal significant democracy model accepted by all member states (recently with with the exception of conflict in is threats, external of face the in also government, effective for capacity According toPiS,theneedstrengthen theinternalsovereignty ofthestate and its institutional na=2. rowniez-pozbawienie-pewnych-srodowisk-przywilejow-mamy-bunt-korporacji-to-swojego-rodzaju-rokosz?stro- 13 against theChurch isahandraised againstPoland”.http://info.rp.pl/artykul/998743.html?print=tak&p=0. without theChurch”. „The foundationofthePolishidentityisChurch anditsteachings.Any handraised doubt andtohavelosttheirfaithbutstillremained aPolishpatriot,they wouldhavetoadmitthere isnoPoland the PolishidentityandCatholicismispresent inmanyofJarosław Kaczyński’s speeches„Evenifsomeonewere to http://old.pis.org.pl/dokumenty.php?s=partia&iddoc=164 (inPolish).Thisbeliefinthecloseconnectionbetween Poland theonlymoral alternativetothechurch isnihilism”. Programme TheLawandJusticeParty’s 2014,p. 11, moral teachinginPoland. Ithasnocompetitioninwidersocialterms,whichiswhyitfullytruetosaythat 12 years. TheHungarianmediahavealready beenassignedtothiscategory. free” category. TheassessmentofHungariandemocracy hasbeensystematicallydeteriorating foranumberof though inthelastreport (Freedom intheWorld 2016)witha detailed score at alevel veryclosetothe„partially 11 ish nationalidentity, morality, lawandstate, ing it strictly with the Roman Catholic faith. Party’s position is that the Church is the bulwark of the Pol- PiS defines the Polish nation not in citizenship but above all in the ethnic and religious terms, associat- ment adoptedacriticalresolution onthesubjectofPoland by avastmajorityon13thApril2016. mechanism formonitoringtheruleoflawwasinitiated in January2016. Also, theEuropean Parlia- as criticism from the majority of European political opinion. As a result, the European Commission which has become the main source of conflict between the PiS government and EU institutions as well the matter of thedeterioration of therulelawandalso more widely in relation to liberal democracy, http://wpolityce.pl/polityka/276606-jaroslaw-kaczynski-w-radiu-maryja-dobra-zmiana-o-ktorej-mowimy-to- According tothePiSprogramme „theChurch remains todaythehostandadvocateofgenerally accepted Hungary isconsidered by Freedom House(the Americanindependentpublicfoundation)asafree country 12 making Poland, in their eyes, a specific case in the EU, the in case specific a eyes, their in Poland, making 11 It is exactlyis It par- 13

6 Stefan Batory Foundation ness, presenting an entirely un-national, European point of view”. correct- political “European supporting groups by within from also but outside from threatened only from the end of the 19th and the first half of the 20th Centuries. 20th the of half first the and 19th the of end the from Party Democratic National of ideology the and party this between similarities significant notes one differences, basic certain ignoring without and world-view, PiS the of roots historical the seeking In PiS electorate thanthatofothercentre orleftwingparties). of part hard-core the by shared extent greater a to are that opinions authoritarian and nationalistic in Polish history and is also a result of changingattitudes in Polish society (a rise in the support of PiS’s system of values, also shaping its foreign policy, is not of transient character. It has deeproots “a special significance – a universal significance” due to the universal character of the Church. the of character universal the to due significance” universal a – significance special “a Kaczyński, Jarosław to according identity, this lends Church Catholic Roman the with identity Polish ic, xenophobic andopenlyanti‑Semiticpolicies. to do with traditional Polish values”. Waszczykowski in the „Bild” interview, is “a mixture of cultures and races” and a disease “with nothing western Europe is, according to PiS, the “multi-culti” ideology that, according to Foreign Minister Witold Another threat totheethnical,cultural andreligious homogeneityofPolishidentity stemming from Its leaderwasRomanDmowski, who,asmuchhis party, particularlyin1930 18 ducing adultfilms.Theseare tolerated by thestateandare thesource oftax revenue. Budapest isknown astheEuropean capitalofthepornindustryduetoverynumerous Hungarianfirmspro- abortions isoneofthehighestinEurope. Extra-marital partnershipsare legalandthere are manygayclubs. practices andidentificationismuchweaker thaninPoland.There isaliberal abortionlawandthenumber of ys-wartosci,628650.html. InHungary, despitetheconstitutionemphasizingstate’s Christian values,religious 17 piej. sie-pis-polacy-maja-dosc-systemu-tuska-trzeba-zadac-pytanie-czy-po-szesciu-latach-rzadow-po-zyje-sie-wam-le­ 16 (in Polish). 15 versionToLogin.bild.html#remId=1513236873310483946. 14 those valuestoWestern Europe andtodefend thosevaluesagainstalltheattacksweface”. carry to mission and responsibility great our today is “it nations both of case the in that claimed and values” retainedthose “have Hungarians and Poles the that added He being”. human the and manity Europe. They are beingforgotten andtrampled by otherideologiesthatdebasetheessenceof hu- a civilisation with Latinrootsby supported Christianity, (…) all these idealsare beinglost in today’s about thinking am I and built, been has civilisation European which on values of crisis a doubt, out Duda, during his visit to Hungary in March 2016, stated that “in today’s Europe, in which there is, with- Andrzej President mission. historical a this makes policy foreign Polish current the of nature unique international conspiracies against Poland in which foreign enemy powers were involved, including in- civilizational and economic terms. Another very characteristic feature of this ideology was the belief in Europe. The National Democrats treated Germany (and not Russia) as the greatest threat to Poland in tinuation of Western tradition. Thisis why Polandhadthemissiontorestore thetraditional values to Poland wastreated asbasicallythemostwesterncountryinEuropeconsidered and con- thegenuine spoilt, clearly different from Poland and as a threat to traditional Polish values. At the same time, multi-cultural state, international organisations andwestern liberal democracy. It saw the West as the of critical highly was Democracy National Catholicism. Roman with identified closely was nation tance was the nation and its most important attribute was the homogeneous nation state. The Polish National Party(known inPolishasNarodowa Demokracja orendecja)–politicalmovement created in1897. http://www.tvn24.pl/wiadomosci-ze-swiata,2/prezydent-andrzej-duda-w-budapeszcie-w-europie-panuje-kryz- http://wpolityce.pl/polityka/185711-tylko-u-nas-pelne-przemowienie-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-na-kongre- ProgrammeThe LawandJusticeParty’s 2014,p.29, http://old.pis.org.pl/dokumenty.php?s=partia&iddoc=164 http://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/polen/hat-die-regierung-einen-vogel-44003034,var=a,view=con- 14 According to PiS programme, the Polish national identity is not 15 18 The complete identification of the In these terms, of central impor- s , increasingly advocatedautocrat- 17

16 The

7 Stefan Batory Foundation only somespecificpoliciesbutalsoasocio-cultural model. also havingperceived an usurpationofpower inthepolicies of Brusselsthrough theimposition of not grow from a group of states, governments and political forces ready to side with Warsaw’s position, of EU institutional influence are being defined. In this dispute, the PiS government expects support to belief thatit is an arena inwhichtodaythelimits of sovereignty of EUmembersandtheboundaries The reluctance togiveground inthe disputewiththeEuropean Commission may becausedby the sailing withthewindofchangeinEurope. tic and nationalistic sentiment in Europe is considered asignofthis. This gives PiS the sensethat it is values, therole ofnationsandstates, sovereignty andliberalism are concerned.TheriseofEuroscep- as far as also but terms institutional in only not end an to drawing is Europe“old” the that belief the in thepurely political dimension, butalsoasan economicandsociocultural model.PiS leaders follow only not leadership, German rejectionof the particular in concerns growingThis Europe.throughout mocracy are tendenciesformingthespineofPiS’s political vision. Its popularity, asPiS underlines, is EU integrationpolitics, theoppositiontodeeper on theeconomyand the criticismofliberal and de- strengthening ofthenationstate, renationalisation of theeconomy, the limitation of external factors the all, Above future. the for project a as vanguard, the in located is critics) its by backward-looking it also assumes thatat least in certain aspects, its cultural project (seen asarchaic, 19th Century and PiS not only sees today’s European political reality in terms of the conflict of values and identities, but mainstream andaffectstheshapingofPole’s attitudesandopinions. the answer to the question, this approach situates Poland in opposition to the western European bilisation vehicle of theirs electorate, or in fact represent the ruling elite’s genuine beliefs. Whatever fears aboutglobalisation, the condition of Europesociety’s and loss of identity, serving also as a government representatives, andparty’s is onlyarhetoricaldevice addressed toatleastasectionof Of course,thequestionremainsextent towhat approach, such strongly present inthestatementsof could hardly becontrolled. media, and are not seen as the transfer of cultural models by osmotic, people-to-people contacts that that theinspiration ofsuchtrends are considered thegovernments, European institutions and foreign (at times called the “moral revolution”). The source of PiS mistrust of foreign influence lies in the views Influences flowing from the West are perceived as threats to the changes PiS would like to implement multiculturalism. and cosmopolitanism minorities, of glorification ecology, secularisation, with ated social left-wing engineering that ploughed through western society in accordance with a vision of progress of associ - theme oft-returning the features rhetoric PiS aims. and values definite some of of therealisation, by thestatesorby intellectual currents, ofprojects to rebuild society in thename companied by theclearbeliefthatsocialorcultural changesare notorganic processes buttheresult ac- is It PiS. of supporters the and leaders of discourse the in present strongly is factors external of This element of perceiving intentional activity levelled at Polish culture and tradition in the influences Kaczyński allowed himselftopublicallycallmembersoftheopposition“second categoryPoles”. ternal Polish political opponents defined as the “half-Polish race”. Knowingly or unknowingly Jarosław Union is a failing utopia. We were told that the European identity will be postmodern basedmainly on The main theme of PiS foreign policy is the belief in the decline of the EU as we know it. “The European Europessimism mo-

8 Stefan Batory Foundation is ending before our eyes” says a PiS intellectual and an MEP. European institutions and universal principles of human rights, but it has not worked out. This utopia to-jest-utopia-ktora-upada-ta-utopia-na-naszych-oczach-sie-konczy. 19 may in this context be regarded as a sign of cold calculation: the EU project (including Schengen) shall crisis (accentuation of the reluctance to accept migrants and the priority of maintainingsovereignty), gration of the zone in order to improve its functioning, as well as the passive attitude in the migration inte- deeper of possibility the also but Eurozone, an joining Poland of goal the of come to years for rejectionfuture.The near the undertakein should EU the metamorphosis a as Community Economic European old the to return a supported even has Waszczykowski Minister malaise. European the to solution today’s is Union” closer “ever from retreat that maintaining instead integration, deepening government is one ofthose countries that most loudly and effectively formulate theoppositionto seem apolitical option duetotheresistance ofsomesocieties andgovernments. PolandwithaPiS a The dilemma of the EU is that further integration, especially in economic policy and migration, is functioning oftheEuropean Unionbelongexactly tothecategoryofsuchinvestments. seem tobeunworthy investment. Almost all activities that couldleadto qualitative changes inthe ing to prevent such a fiasco (above all Germany) and in endeavours requiring expensive compromises demise of the European utopia, PiS leaders believe, involvement in close relations with partners seek- ty designed to prevent the realisation of the disintegration scenario. Since we are facing the inevitable basis of European policy, an element of which is the already mentioned reluctance to undertake activi Secondly, this pessimistic assumption about the EU’s future encourages a redefinition of the strategic but toaggravate thedisintegration processes. individual states of their own accord (e.g. closure of the Balkan route), in effect serving not to alleviate a common policy apart from suggesting a strengthening of external borders and supported activity by character of the crisis (suggesting it was just a German problem), failed to involve itself in developing threat of the crisis to the whole EU, the Polish government openly has beenquestioningthe European on thecriticiseddisintegrationbearing crisis couldhaveafundamental processes. Inemphasisingthe time same migration the to relation in Poland’s activity reflection that a by accompanied the not are warnings these At crisis. migration the of because exactly disintegration into descending is EU the of thewholeUnionandforPoland.Representatives ofthegovernmentand supporters proclaim that EU’s effectiveness while the evident deficits in this area are considered serious threats to the integrity the of test a as seen is it hand one the On crisis. refugee the to attitude Poland’s is example good A of faithintheeffectivenessone’s own activity. stressed, in the context of the EU, this doctrine of empowerment is apparently accompanied by a lack the proper statusintheinternationalrelationsone ofPiS’s being mainaims.Meanwhile,itshouldbe of “regaining” the with earlier, mentioned empowerment of principle the of context the in especially jective and unavoidable fact, one must adapt to as being beyond Poland’s influence. This is interesting Firstly, the disintegration and decomposition of the EU as we know it is considered by PiS to be an ob- for itsfuture. political dimension ofPiSeuropessimism goesbeyond thecriticalanalysisofEUactivity concern and tude intheEUbothamongits opponents andsupportersoftheintegration project. Nonetheless, the and the criticism of its inability to manage successive crises can be of no surprise andis a general atti condition of further effective functioning of the Union, but this “more Europe” approach does not does approach Europe” “more this but Union, the of functioning effective further of condition Professor ZdzisławKrasnodębski inhttp://wpolityce.pl/polityka/286970-prof-krasnodebski-unia-europejska- 19 TheconcernabouttheEuropean Union - -

9 Stefan Batory Foundation sceptical about deeper integration (or to a large extend, even membership as such) and critical of critical and such) as membership even extend, large a to (or integration deeper about sceptical country a Kingdom, United the be to on now from is partner strategic Poland’sWaszczykowski, ister sources of this significant redefinition of Poland’s alliances in the EU. According to statements by min- In thisanalysisoftheEU’sits perspectivesfordevelopment,and functioning to notethe oneought of nationalinterests ofmember stateswithobvious advantagesforall. 1945 achievements as the foundation of peace in Europe but also the merging andinterdependency of nature in Hobbesian terms as war of each against the other. It misses out not only the EU’s post a state as EU the sees it other; each with conflict in bydefinition egoisms, national of hardgame a as sovereignty, thenecessity of decisive reversal of theEuropean integration process andseestheEU soon befacedwiththeneedofareferendum inPoland”(toexit theEU). also shall we expertise, and tact political such with acting on carry politicians EU Tribunal:“If tutional Consti- the over tensions of context the in advisors, PiS influential the of one Krasnodębski, Zdzisław academic, an of Twitter on expressed opinion the mention could one prophecy.example an filling As in thefuture. Sucheuropessimism maytherefore becalledfatalismthatcarriesfeatures ofself-ful- limit a damageto Poland inorder to lay the foundation forasbroad aspossibleindependentaction not survive in the current form, so Polish policy ought to focus on defensive activities calculated to ister-witold-waszczykowski-14029077.html. maine Zeitung,23.01.2016.http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/europaeische-union/artikel-von-polens-aussenmin- 21 J. Kaczyński haslaterpublicallyrejected suchcallsforareferendum callingthem‘damaging’. 20 Polish interest. the with accordance in is such as and prosperity”, create and differencesother each with compete disputes, overcome and to it to thanks able are “nation-states, of union tight a as existence its while egoisms”, national of sum “a than more is EU the that admitted Waszczykowski Witold that true is It a perspectiveis,inthePiSview, fundamentallydifferent. been taking care of the integrity of the Union and equalising opportunity of development, today such as an ally by Poland and by other smaller, including “new”, member states, as an institution that has serves also to strengthen such opposition. While in the past the European Commission was perceived but example, classic a only not is Tribunal Constitutional the over conflict The Parliament. and sion Commis- the like institutions Union supra-national by states member in situation internal influence the Polish interest. PiS’s sovereignty-based policy leads also to the automatic rejection of attempts to with incompatible and pointless as rejects government PiS the which policy), asylum and (Eurozone integration deeper of patrons today are Commission European the and Germany both that fact the ropean Commission played a key role. Distancing itself from this model of EU functioning stems from Council and large countries, especially Germany), at the cost of the community model in which the Eu- the EU has started to work more on an intergovernmental basis (with the domination of the European years. Under the influence of successive crises and also the changes introduced by the Lisbon Treaty, it ispossibletonoticeareactionin how tochanges over theEUhasbeenfunctioning thelastfew European Commission to be an instrument by which these states realise their interests. In this critique Thirdly, theEuropean Unionisconsidered by PiS to beanorgan dominatedby large states and the Witold Waszczykowski, wollenführende “Wir RollebeimAufbaueinesstärkeren Europas“, Frankfurter Allge- https://twitter.com/zdzkrasnodebski/status/719599903119405056 Itshould,however, benotedsuch 21 However PiS, in its vision of Europe constantly underlines the principle of maximum of principle the underlines constantly Europe of vision its in HoweverPiS, 20

10 Stefan Batory Foundation with GermanybutalsoFrance, whichwasthebasisofprevious governments’ European policy. recruited perts of the Sobieski Institute, a think tank from which many members of the government have been ropean Union. On the other hand, membership in the Union is hampering this process”, wrote the ex- the search for Poland’s new course of modernisation. “Poland shall not be modernised without the Eu- In circles close to PiS, doubts are expressed more strongly about the role the EU is supposed to play in Platform (PO)government, atleastinwords. Civic previous the by even initiated was kind this of Policy rules. EU by allowed extent the to tionism champions andallocation of agreater role tothestateineconomicpolicywithelementsofprotec- patriotism, understood as the necessity of building andpromoting large Polish companies as national cism not only from PiS but also other political options. It is accompanied by highlighting economic A part of this discourse is the questioningofpurely (neo)liberal economic model receiving criti trap, toachieve development basedmore oninnovationnot somuchonlow and EU funding. payand middle-income so-called the avoid to is concern The sympathies. political their whateverexperts and economists many byperceived problems the to solution a seeking is PiS dimension, economic the In basis ofPolishsocietyandculture. its modernisation25yearsfollowing thestartoftransformation andeven thevaluesystemat centralthe mostbasicdisputetodayover toperhaps Poland’s modelofdevelopment –theshapeof 2016: “Foreign investments – Do we still need them?”. need still we Do – investments “Foreign 2016: on these matter was the title of the debate held by the Freedom Institute (Instytut Wolności) in March discourse changing the of Characteristic PiS). to close both Institute, Sobieski the and Club iellonian doubts astotheeconomicachievementsfundamental ofEUmembershiphavebeenraised by theJag- mentary commission to assess that account (on the initiative of the opposition party Kukiz ’15), though membership intheEUis questioned more orless openly, asignofwhichis the setting up oftheparlia- criticism bysubject tofundamental PiSandcircles closetotheparty. Thepositive account ofPolish are continuation its of perspectives the and process this both Today, model”. “western the towards last 25 years boundupwiththetransformation process, whichit was assumedleadingPoland ropean policy, iseconomicmodernisation.Aswementioned,thepro-European coursewasover the assessment of the future of the EU in which there has beenanideological reorientation of Polish Eu- and model western the to attitude nation/sovereignty, the of matters from apart aspect, fourth The The European Unionasarisktomodernisation? international institutions. org.pl/unijna-pulapka/. 24 23 homosexuality, the character oftherelation between stateandchurch andits supportforliberal democracy). treated with great caution.TheTories clearlydifferfrom PiSintermsofworldview (relation toIslam,abortion, 22 PiS view, paradoxically is supposed to hamper entry on a more dynamic path of modernisation based in which, rules, certain imposing but funds, structural of aid the with e.g. it stimulating frameworks, tration especially among the young section of society. The European Union defines the developmental (especially Germany). Its basis are low production costs including low pay that have been causing frus- ternal actors,foreign investment and demandcomingfrom amongPoland’s largest foreign partners a result of participation in the integration process development model, one that is dependent on ex- on dependent is that one model, development process integration the in participation of result Łukasz Hardt, Tomasz GrzegorzGrosse, Unijnapułapka, Rzeczpospolita,14.02.2014,http://www.sobieski. See http://www.instytutwolnosci.pl/index.php/wydarzenia/347-inwestycje-zagraniczne-relacja-z-debaty-2. It isworthemphasizingthatPiS’s claimstobeingapartysimilartheBritishConservativesoughtbe 24 . This assessment is based on a belief that a strongly exogenous economy has arisen as arisen has economy exogenous strongly a that belief a on based is assessment This . 22 Thisdeclaration also means anabandonmentofclose relations not only 23 Assuch,theproblem oftheEUhasbecome - 11 Stefan Batory Foundation a backwater of the German market, which will mean a lack of opportunity to develop the country”. the develop to opportunity of lack a mean will which market, German the of backwater a of the Polish economy with Germany: “this will be the source of our demise as we shall really become portant problems ofPoland’s modernisationwithintheEUisvery strong andasymmetrical bond benefiting Poland’s developmental aspirations. According to PiS experts and politicians, one ofdiversification the im- greater for opportunity the offer may China, with example relations economic for closer EU, through the beyond going that hope of sources the of one is development, Polish further The beliefthat the European Unionshouldnotbethesingle or perhapseven the main vehicle of map”. European the on nature peripheral and dependency our cement even may (“europeization”) EU the in involvement and wasted be may that chance a only is this But to improveadvance from itsinternationalpositionand theperipherytohalf-peripheryofEurope. opportunity historical the gained has “Poland model. western the of imitation not and innovation on 25 than Poland between 2007 and 2014. and 2007 between Poland than growthinnovation the times 2.5 over Commission, European the to accordingachieve, to Czechs the much more integrated with the German economy than Poland while this symbiosis has not prevented is example for Republic Czech The opportunities. developmental of loss automatic an meant not has this and Germany with economically integrated strongly very are economies European Central the together in terms of investments and services with the remaining EU members. Whatis more, all linked strongly are and EU the to services and goods their of most export still one, Polish the than globalised more much are which UK), the or France Germany, (e.g. economies European large the that mentioning worth is it However, diversification. demands export Polish while model economic its for courses innovative more new find must and impulses developmental new needs Poland tion, There is a general belief in Poland that after ten years of EU membership and25 years of transforma investment anduseofEUfundsinitsrealisation. means ofPolishmodernisationinthecomingyears,assumesenormousrole offuture foreign and aims the defines which Minister, Development a Morawiecki, Mateusz PM Deputy by presented Plan, Morawiecki so-called the Also Union. European the outside trading from business Polish stop throughneither dotheyand EU membership attempttopresent one.Ineffect, there isnobarrierto than other modernisation to alternative good no is there that assumes It speak. politicians PiS which of and about write Institute Sobieski the of experts the that Europeanisation” “paradoxof the is This products confirmsthis. of justoneeconomicarea”. cycle business the on dependent so are we that concern of source a is it other the one but markets, global difficult most the of one on well so doing entrepreneurs Polish see to glad are we hand, one the On trade. foreign our of percent 60 over for accounts which market, European the to ties strong has Poland “today that Waszczykowskistated Witold minister Foreign politicians. PiS of as experts of 29 p. 92, http://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/innovation/facts-figures/scoreboards/files/ius-2015_en.pdf. innovation intheCzechRepublicover thatperiodwasthefourthhighestinEurope. Innovation Scoreboard 2015, for Polanditwas0.292.By2014 ithadrisento0.447intheCzechRepublicandPoland0.313. Therisein 28 template=restricted. 27 msz.gov.pl/en/foreign_policy/goals_of_foreign_policy/annual_address_2011/. 26 iza InstytutuSobieskiegonr68,kwiecień2014,http://www.sobieski.org.pl/analiza-is-68/. Tomasz GrzegorzGrosse, „Złotykaftan europeizacji” –refleksje po 10-ciulatachobecnościPolskiwUE,Anal In recent yearsitwaseven 1:2totheadvantageofCzech Republic. In 2007,theeconomicinnovation coefficientstoeconomicactivitiesfortheCzechRepublicwas0.373while http://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/311139990-Witold-Waszczykowski--Jestem-jastrzebiem-o-golebim-sercu.html?- Information oftheMinisterForeign AffairsonthePolishGovernment’s foreign policyin2016,http://www. 29 26 28 The much bigger share of Czech advanced technology export technology advanced Czech of share bigger much The 25 Thisisasmuchtheopinion - 27 -

12 Stefan Batory Foundation after national security, priority of foreign policy in her parliamentary speech in November 2015. about Poland’s empowerment in Europe, the development of which PM Szydło defined as the second, debate a generates discussion such extent great a to but thinking sovereignty-oriented a just not is 70% of Poles opposed the common currency, while only 25% were supporters of its adoption its of supporters were 25% only currency,while common the opposed Poles of 70% Without doubt,theoppositiontoadoptionofEuro isafragment ofthisperception (inMay2015, target. desirable sole the presents longer no and crisis economic the by questioned extent great a to been has aspired, Poland which to EU) the and West the by (symbolised model economy market causes. Manyoftheactivists and especially sympathisers ofthegoverning partyalso believe that the deeper has Germany and EU the with relations towardscircleseconomic PiS in attitude sceptical The en/policy-statement-by-prime-minister-beata-szydlo-stenographic-record.html. We shallbepushingforastrong Poland’s positionontheinternationalarena”, Seehttps://www.premier.gov.pl/ yond. We shallstrivetoempower notonlyourpolicybutalso thepolicyofentire region towhichwebelong. shall beactiveandself-assertive. We shallopposethedivisionofEurope, bothwithin the European Unionandbe- 31 adzeniu-euro. 30 our room formanoeuvre withintheEU, butwill also harmourinterests beyond it, especially as far Brussels (relative to other countries) wanes. Poland’s marginalisation in the EU shall not only influence eration in controversial matters important to Poland will be more difficult while Warsaw’s influence in EU lawtotheadvantageordisadvantageofamember state.ThegainingoftheCommission’s coop- rial policies andmanyothercasesinwhichtheCommissionhasalarge scopeoffree interpretation of review ofthe current EU budget,assessmentofPolish budgetary policy, state support in some secto- include that of the construction of Nord Stream 2 and the reform of the European energy market, the These important. especially is Commission the of support the Poland, for matters key many in that An example is the relations with the European Commission. The dispute with the EC obscures the fact a situation contrary tothebasicaimofPiSpolicy –therebuilding ofPoland’s internationalinfluence. on thatofindividualmemberstatesinaccordance withPolishnationalinterests, whichwillmean and policies Poland’s EU limit on marginalisationwill influence EuropeanThis the Union. in especially years. This is going to lead to Poland’s marginalisation in the structures of the western world and with Washingtonstates) and with certainmember that willonlyintensifyinthecomingmonthsand time in (also Parliament European the Commission, European the with conflicts to leading are order liberal-democratic the of foundations other and media public the of over taking check-and-balances, institutional of weakening constitution, the of infringement involving state the of reconstruction the First which istheredefinition of relations withtheEU),impliesa range ofconsequences. EU sectorial policies, the political change initiated by the PiS government (a very important part of concerning discussions the in take to going is Poland position the prejudging Without unlikely. very on ideological beliefs means that a return to previous governments’ European policy assumptions is reconstructionThe prioritygiventodeep of PiSforeignthe dependency ofdomesticpoliticsand policy Conclusions andperspectives perhaps key elementofthechangeinapproach toEurope proposed by PiS. another, is model, economic new,Polish sovereigna of shaping the blocks and development further protection, energy policyandcompetitionlaw,the creation hampering ofnationalchampions)limits belief that the current model of European integration (e.g. restrictive legislation on environmental “Under theruleofLawandJustice,underunitedright wing,Polandshallbecomeempo http://www.polskieradio.pl/42/273/Artykul/1450258,Badanie-CBOS-Polacy-zdecydowanie-przeciwni-wprow- wered. We 30 ). This 31 The 13 Stefan Batory Foundation al separateness mightthreaten theirown integration withintheEU. contributors) to direct their taxpayers’ money to this country as they realise that politics of civilisation cooperation with that very core. This will inevitably weaken the readiness of our hitherto partners (net European “hard core”, while Poland’s basic strategic developmental and security interests depend on the and Poland between ties of weakening inevitable the be will functioning EU of principles the of rejection a of consequence A significance. particular on take gain) partners and loss of main calculation as with well (as relations settling of mode and place Poland’s about questions context, this In tween participatingmembers. policy) within thehard core ofthe Union.Theseprocesses shall result in new formscooperation be- asylum or migration of sphere the in (e.g. integration of centres new of creation the and Eurozone) likely mean a deepening of the integration of its part already functioning as partially autonomous (the between eachmemberstate but only change theircharacter. Thedisintegration oftheEUshallmost ening of the EU or the loosening ofthe ties fundamental to its functioning shall not remove relations which the predictions concerning EU disintegration would turn out to actually be accurate. The weak- declarations of government representatives, there is a lack of a long-term reflection on the scenario in future anddirection ofdevelopment deemedtothreaten Polishinterests. Atthesametime,in PiS’s attitude to the European Union is particularly defensive due to the assumption of its uncertain Second, may serveasanexample ofthis. Union’s policy as Polandhadatleast some capability of formingsaidpolicy. TheEasternPartnership Eastern EuropeUp untilnow, isconcerned. apartofourinterests inthisregion were realised through tries, that astrong andintegrated European Unionis in the interest of theUnitedStates. A hostile coun- other at also but UK, the directed of at Washington calls the significant treatas also We should to exist despiteitscrisesandremains thebestguarantee ofPoland’s securityandprosperity. and the rule of law also means the undermining of the foundations of the community that continues democracy liberal of questioning the words, other In position. and context international Poland’s to the crisis remains in force and still functions, wouldbringaboutlongterm and negative consequences cult. Abandonment ofthe liberal and community-based model of the EU, which despite its faults and the most important Polish interests, for example policy towards Russia, is going to be extremely diffi- A Europe dominatedby anationalistic and anti-liberal rightwill also beoneinwhichtherealisation of difficult. more much be shall EU the of survival the element, last this Without EU. the strengthen and compromises ontheimportantassumptionthatmemberstatesare unitedintheirdesire tomaintain European integrationinterests isaplatformandaninstrumentfornegotiatingdiffering andachieving stronger thanPoland. on animmediatecollision course withtheidenticaltendenciesofothernationstates,includingthose taken from the PiS catalogue of values, Polish national sovereignty, if not egoism, is going to find itself renationalisation of policies), PiS appears not to appreciate that in Europe that would follow principles and Euroscepticism of rise democracy, liberal of (crisis Europe of whole the in place taking changes maximally of union a towards strong sovereign nationstates is at odds with the Polish interest. Seeing itself in thevanguard ofthe PiS by preferred direction the to according EU the of evolution the Third, - 14 Stefan Batory Foundation of transatlantic ties, is not going to find much understanding of its needs in Washington, and this and includes itssecurityneeds. Washington, in needs its of understanding much find to going not is ties, transatlantic of weakening a to leading so Germany, of mistrust and disintegration European on policy its build to going is that partner a easy,but been never have US the and Europe between Relations context. this in significant especially France is and Germany of significance the in security.rise for The sponsibility re- the of part a on take to ready and capable ally, cohesive internally an Union European the in and NATO in seek president) is who of (independent US the that requires world the in threats various of bothin security of Polish guarantor bilateral terms and within NATO. Thenecessity of preventing final or limiting the negative consequences the as 1989 since regarded been has States United The quences forPoland. in thepoliciesofUS,withnegativeconse- to cause,ineffect,changes attitude totheEUisgoing been up to now a lack of any initiatives from the PiS government on the matter of policy relations policy of matter the on government PiS the from initiatives any of lack a now to up been All the more soas,despitetheroutine assurances ofthecontinuationeastern policy, there has transformation butasanimportantparticipantintheEU’s eastern foreign policy. of success appreciated greatly enormous, the inspiration of example of and transformation source pro-European the a for as Poland of role serious the weaken this does only Not east. the in ocrats dem- the than Belarus or Azerbaijan of government authoritarian the and Putin Vladimir by sented Apart from that,theviews represented by PiSare closertothevisionofinternationalrelations pre- nationalists andEurosceptics thatwere alsointhevastmajoritypro-Russian. parties, opposition were PiS of “defenders” main The PiS. with voted country EU any in power in or Eurosceptic openly not were that groupTories, serious the no and Fidesz counting Not EMPs. of 18% resolution on changesin Poland on13 April 2016. PiS could count onthe support ofnomore than the on Parliament European the in voting the was this of example An EU. the of principles the with political model represented by PiS as archaic, and also, as regards the rule of law, as incompatible course withthevast majority of theEuropean establishment, whichregards thevalue system and to be combated. This locates that party, and together with it the Polish government, on a collision PiS sees this model as an expression of an imposed left-wing “political correctness” project that needs erance, xenophobia, nationalismandofclericalism. for acertain model ofpolitical culture. It is characterised by respect for diversity and rejection of intol - and greens, butallarefor liberal unitedinnotonlysupport democracy andtheruleoflaw, butalso varied and is made upofconservatives, centre-right, Christian Democrats, liberals, social democrats open society (e.g. the German AfD and Austrian FPÖ). The main current of European public opinion is that are not so much conservative (e.g. the Tories) as openly hostile to the European Union and the Europe“decadence”in bythe parties today to used opposed language as today.the dominant is This Under thePiSgovernment, Polandwantstopresentof thereal, itselfasthedefender traditional West and asuccumbingtowestern“fashion”. imitation” of “policy a as PiS by questioned been have Europe in credibility of source a and society of majority great a of aspirations historical the expressionof an as West-Europeanmodel socio-cultural in thePolishsoftpowerparadigm. Thesuccessfulwesternorientationandmovement towards that PiS policy signifies not only a redefinition of the EU’s place in Poland’s foreign policy but a total change Fourth, 15 Stefan Batory Foundation serve to support the argument that the EU’s eastern expansion was a mistake and politicised become quickly may assessment this crisis, EU of conditions In years. 25 last the over that the deep differences in the value systems of the two parts ofthe continent have not disappeared country serving as an example of the renewed harmful division between east and west in Europe and main the is Poland Today, significance. political great of is factor This such). as Poland to gradually al distance to Poland’s political elite among a large partofwesternsocieties and establishments (and Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric is certainly much more an important reason for the growing sense of cultur- Westthe of critique bythe conducted of similarity Jarosław Putin’sVladimir the to Kaczyński Recep or the symbolism of Volhynia or Bandera, without significance remains the greater emphasis placed by PiS on ‘historical on policy’, the past and presencetalks withMoscowof other formats supported negotiations, and intheMinsk Kiev. and Not Poland’s of lack the and government former the of initiatives of lack alleged the protested activists PiS main the campaign, election the during because noteworthy is This Ukraine. and Russia towards 35 it-negative. 34 fehler-der-eu-osterweiterung-kolumne-a-1071041.html. 33 Ukrainian nationalisticmovement. and self‑defenceunitskilled several thousandUkrainians. StefanBandera wasoneofthetopleaders future independentUkrainian state.About 100000Polesdied.Inretaliation Polishunderground organisations regions ofVolhynia andinEasternGalicia1943–1944.Theobjectivewastopurge allnon‑Ukrainians from the 32 would lower Poland’s rating. Moody’s May 13th on that expected analysis Financial agencies. remaining the byPoland’s creditworthiness of lowering effect domino a to lead to likely is decision S&P the that suggests Experience a has also rating new The BBB+. to A- from when rating the place changed took Poor’s & This Standard agency years. largest 20 the in time first the for rating credit Poland’s of lowering the was ena phenom negative these of portent A market. predictable and stable a as arena international the on spite the good macroeconomic indicators. This is because they seriously damage Poland’s credibility questioning theruleoflaw, may have important negative consequences forPoland’s economy, de- change” “good the as well as partners western other and Commission European the with conflict to foreign policy based ontheprinciplesof‘sovereignty’ and of‘empowerment’ that hasbeenleading Fifth, to deepencooperation onlywiththecountriessharingsamevalues. EU coffer. the to net-payers other mention to not position, its support to France and Germany like players EU these negotiations,aconflictedPolandwillhavemuch harder themostimportant tasktopersuade In 2020–2026. for framework financial the of subject the on and perspective financial current the in ing by Poland ormay Polish not support interests in negotiations on the revision of the EU budget consequences forPoland.TheCommission may bemore scrupulousinits control of EUfundsspend negative other have may players main EU’s the and Commission European the with conflict the Also, a rise inthecostofforeign debtservicing. and zloty the of weakening a Exchange, Stock Warsaw the from investments portfolio of outflow an islation. rising fiscal risks and the new conservative government’s shift to more unpredictable policies and leg- negative perspective, which means a 33% likelihood of a further lowering within the next two years. http://www.reuters.com/article/poland-ratings-moodys-idUSL5N18A62L. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/moody-s-warns-polish-constitutional-crisis-is-cred- See Wolfgang Muenchau’s commentaryinDerSpiegel,http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/polen-der- Exploiting Germans’‘neutrality’ theUkrainian Insurgent Armycarriedoutethniccleansing ofPolesinthe 35 These rating moves may lead to a reduction in the flow of foreign investment into Poland, into investment foreign of flow the in reduction a to lead may moves rating These 34 In effect, Moody’s only cut the outlook on Poland’s A2 rating, citing rating, A2 Poland’s on outlook the cut only Moody’s effect, In 32 than the need to provide Ukraine with effective aid today. The 33 andthatit is necessary - - 16 Stefan Batory Foundation prove tobeimpossible. may security, Poland’s benefiting flank, eastern its on presence permanent NATO the of increase er great- significantly to inadequate) as Poland in (considered plan Plus” „Newport the least at of 2016 Syria has greatly promoted this view. In these conditions, the realisation at the Warsaw summit in July inevitable ispresent inalarge sectionoftheEuropeanUS elite.Russia’sand military involvement in main source of the wave of migration and terrorism, some form of future cooperation with Russia is of events in the Middle East (radical Islam, war in Syria and the state of affairsin Libya), which are the European foreignThe beliefthatbecauseoftheoverriding andsecuritypolicyagenda. importance and theterrorist threat have meant that the matter of the Russian threat has ceasedto dominate the but also lifted the odium ofRussophobichysteria ascribed to Warsaw. However, the migration crisis bourhood not only contributed to the internationalisation of the fate ofthe Eastern Partnershipstates neigh- eastern on perspective its as war Russian-Ukrainian the of beneficiary paradoxical a way cific from Russiaeven ifthey are undernoillusion as to the nature ofPutin’s politics. Poland wasinaspe- Most EU and NATO members do not share today the same sense of direct threat (especially military) tion oftheirpolicies. defini- the in power) in party the (whatever interests Polish particular consider extent lesser even an during thecrisis years above its realout. Poland’s weight isrunning mostimportantpartnersshallto cess and the slowing ofother member states’ development that elevated Poland’s position in Europe membership would have anyway been more difficult than the first. The bonus from the economic suc- in thegovernmentchanges andthenew foreign policy paradigm. TheseconddecadeofPoland’s EU Poland’s honeymoon thatlastedforagoodfewof independent yearsafterEUaccessionhasended Sixth, surance-deterrence. Assurance toDeterrence, GMFBlogPost, 15.12.2015,http://www.gmfus.org/blog/2015/12/15/nato-right-path-as 36 Poland’s hitherto strong international position and the loss of goodwill of our European partnersto of weakening the to contributed have elements these All reactions. negative partners’ and Warsaw from coming signals or the of understanding aims of lack the pragmatic strengthened has This concrete, projects. policy foreign formulated of lack the note we policy, security of exception the with Seventh, been treated intheEUasextreme. count oncertainsupportintheregion, butits position asacountrythatoverrelies on coalhaslong security or Russia policy. Already now, such an area is energy and climate policy, where Poland may of sphere the in only not policy government PiS of result a as place take may periphery sion-making deci- EU’s the to Poland of shifting involuntary the or marginalisation” “structural the more, is What matter couldbeashard to acceptasimpossibleprevent. this in concessions importance, fundamental of is sovereignty the and state whom Ukraine’s of for strengthening Poland, For circles. government other and French German, in heard been haven voic- es such and grow shall implementation, full their not and accords Minsk the of implementation in January2016. The pressure toloosensanctionsortheirwithdrawal togetherwithprogress inthe months six by extension their accompanied it, behind hiding countries other some with opposition, Also onthematteroffurthersanctionsRussia,group ofstrong advocatesisnotgreat. Italian southern flankofNATO isamuchmore urgent issue. On thereform ofthealliancefrom the PolishperspectiveseeTomasz Kowalik, NATO onthe RightPathfrom 36 From thepointofview ofmanymemberstates,theneedtostrengthenthe - 17 Stefan Batory Foundation the StefanBatoryFoundationandEugeniuszSmolarof the Centre forInternationalRelations. Buras from the Warsaw office of the European Council of Foreign Relations, Grzegorz Gromadzki from Piotr Institute, WiseEuropa from Balcer Adam – organisations and tanks think various from persons Foundation. Their mission is monitoring and reflecting on Poland’s foreign policy. The group includes Batory Stefan the by 2016 in appointed experts of group prepared a reports by of series a in first the is policy The report Changein Poland, but whatchange?Assumptionsof Law andJusticeparty foreign expectations shouldbetaken intoaccount. besetting theEuropean Unionanditsveryfuture –apartnerworthyofinvestmentintoandwhose an important,trustworthy, predictable actorwithapositive attitude tonumerous problems currently as perceived be to care take to needs Poland all, Above now. to up case the been has that partners, with cooperation and relations good words, other in or, coalitions, effective build to ability and skills In thecomingyears,realisation of Polishinterestseven isgoingtodemand more diplomatic * hardening oftheleadershiponinternationalarena. tion of thePiS electorate, who havebeenpromised assertive new policies, and asaresult to a further and compromises, especially within the EU, may lead to the frustration of radical activists and a sec- negotiations inevitable the as situation domestic the affect may Warsaw.This with compromise seek www.batory.org.pl [email protected] fax (48-22)5360220 tel. (48-22)5360200 00-215 Warszawa Sapieżyńska 10a Stefan BatoryFoundation

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18 Stefan Batory Foundation