Food Chain Crisis Early Warning BullEtin Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions

No. 35 April–June 2020

Food Chain Crisis | EmErgEnCy PrEvEntion systEm

Food ChAiN Crisis EArly WArNiNg BullEtiN Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions

No. 35 April–June

Food and agriculture organization oF the united nations rome, 2020 Required citation Fao. 2020. Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions. Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin. no. 35, april–June 2020. rome.

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CoNtENts

NotE to thE rEAdEr page iv

Food ChAiN Crisis ForECAstiNg MEthodology page 1 highlights page 2 oVErViEW: FCC Forecast for the period April–June 2020 page 3

rEgioNAl oVErViEW: Forecast for the period April–June 2020 page 5

Food ChAiN Crisis thrEAts ForECAstiNg At CouNtry lEVEl page 19 glossAry page 65 iNForMAtioN sourCEs page 66

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NotE to thE rEAdEr

The purpose of the FCC (Food Chain Crisis) Early Warning Bulletin is to inform the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and other international organizations, countries, scientific experts, and decision makers of forecasted threats to animal and plant health and food safety that may have a high impact on food and nutrition security for the three months ahead. These threats are transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases, including forest pests and aquatic diseases, and food safety threats.

The bulletin contains official and unofficial information from various sources that has been collected and analysed by FAo experts.

The FCC Early Warning Bulletin is a product of the collaboration between the Intelligence and Coordination Unit of the Food Chain Crisis Management Framework (FCC-ICU), the FAO Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases and food safety threats, the FAO Global Early Warning System for transboundary animal diseases, including zoonoses (GLEWS), and the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). FCC-ICU coordinates and produces the bulletin.

iv Food Chain Crisis Early Warning BullEtin Food Chain Crisis Early Warning BullEtin April–June 2020 No. 35 April–June 2020 No. 35

Food ChAiN Crisis ForECAstiNg MEthodology

Transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases, including forest pests and aquatic diseases, and food safety threats are raising public awareness due to their potentially high impact on food security, human health, livelihoods, and trade. These threats have highlighted the need to predict them in a comprehensive and integrated manner, oriented towards the whole food chain. Predicting threats will allow for timelier implementation of preventive and control measures, and will thus reduce their impact and limittheir geographic spread.

The FAO Food Chain Crisis-Intelligence and Coordination Unit (FCC-ICU) has developed an integrated forecasting approach to assess the likelihood of the occurrence of threats to the food chain (FCC threat) for the upcoming three months. Based on this approach and on the availability of FAO data, a number of forecast events are presented at country level. Data are collected, analysed and further presented in this quarterly FCC Early Warning Bulletin (see country section, page 19). The food safety threats will be included in future bulletins.

The likelihood of occurrence of an FCC threat in a country is defined according to the result of the assessment of two main epidemiological parameters: Parameter 1: likelihood of introduction of the threat from another country and its further spread within the country (calculated as shown in table 1), and Parameter 2: likelihood of its re-emergence (amplification) within the country, if a threat is already present there

Based on a conservative approach, the likelihood of occurrence of the threat will be considered equal to the higher level of the two parameters.

tABlE 1: Crossing table of likelihood of introduction and likelihood of spread (Parameter 1) Level of likelihood of spread 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 Level of Level likelihood of likelihood introduction 3 2 2 2 3

The likelihood of occurrence, the likelihood of introduction, the likelihood of spread, and the likelihood of re- emergence of a FCC threat can be rated as Nil, Low, Moderate or High, as shown in table 2.

tABlE 2: FCC likelihood scale Likelihood Definition Nil (0) Very unlikely Low (1) Unlikely Moderate (2) Likely High (3) Highly likely

1 Food ChAiN Crisis EArly WArNiNg BullEtiN april–June 2020 no. 35 highlights

dEsErt loCust Widespread rains that fell in late March could allow a dramatic increase in locust numbers in East Africa, eastern Yemen and southern Iran during the coming months. in East Africa, a dramatic increase in Desert Locust numbers is expected in the Horn of Africa, where more swarms are expected to form; some of these will remain and breed again, while others will move northwards. in West Asia, an increase in Desert Locust numbers is expected, due to spring breeding in the interior areas of Oman, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Swarms may form in these regions. in south Asia, a substantial increase in Desert Locust numbers is expected due to spring breeding, followed by the threat of swarm invasion along the India-Pakistan border from the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Horn of Africa. This is forecasted to occur in approximately June. riFt VAllEy FEVEr Rift Valley fever (RVF) was reported for the first time in libya in December 2019. This introduction may pose a threat to the surrounding northern African countries. Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal marketing of infected animals, as well as current and forecasted suitability for vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. in Central and East Africa, during the past three months, above-average and heavy rainfall and flash floods have occurred in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, and to a lesser extent in southeastern Ethiopia, parts of Somalia and southwestern South Sudan. Above-average rainfall also occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, except for the northern region, which was drier than normal. The precipitation forecasts predict above-average rains for the coming period (April–June 2020) for the entire region, including Chad and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool, the areas suitable for RVF vector amplification persist in the region, particularly in Burundi, south and central Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, and to a lesser extent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea and the Sudan. AFriCAN sWiNE FEVEr in Asia, the risk of further spread of ASF within countries is considered high where countries have already been infected; these also pose a risk of ASF introduction into other countries in East and Southeast Asia as well as in the Pacific region, through the movement of live pigs and pork products. As the majority of pigs in the world are produced in Asia, especially China, the recent escalation of the ASF epidemic is likely to have devastating consequences for animal health and food security, as well as a noticeable impact on the pig industry and related businesses, not only in the region but worldwide. in Europe, ASF outbreaks and transmission are likely to continue to occur in the affected countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Slovakia, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and, recently, Greece). Introduction of the disease into currently unaffected neighbouring countries is likely to occur (particularly in the Balkan peninsula, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo*, Montenegro and North Macedonia), without ruling out longer jumps such as those observed in Czechia or Belgium. Czechia was the first country in the EU to be officially declared free from ASF in February 2019 after no new outbreak had been found in the country since April 2018. * References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999).

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oVErViEW fCC foReCasT foR THe PeRiod aPRil–June 2020

During the period April to June 2020, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe where they can persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify.

The dynamics and likelihood of the occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change and variability (droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño- Southern Oscillation – ENSO –), changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, human behaviour (cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.

In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (April to June 2020), FAO estimates that, globally, 44 countries (34 in Africa, eight in Asia, and two in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.

MAiN Food ChAiN thrEAts Thirty two plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period April to June 2020. A total of 279 forecasts were conducted in 131 countries.

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oVErViEW foReCasT foR THe PeRiod aPRil–June 2020 tABlE 3: Potential (moderate-high likelihood) food Chain Threats forecasted for april to June 2020 FCCs Plant pests Forest pests aquatic animal Continent threats and diseases and diseases locusts animal diseases diseases AFriCA 17 Fall armyworm Blue gum chalcid Desert Locust Rift Valley fever (FAW) red gum lerp Migratory Locust (RVF) Cassava Mosaic psyllid Foot-and-mouth disease (CMD) Bronze bug disease (FMD) Cassava swollen Poly phagus Avian influenza shoot disease shot hole borer (AI) (CBSD) (PSHB) Banana fusarium wilt disease (BFWD) - Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) Cocoa Swollen shoot disease Anthracnose diseases Wheat rust AMEriCAs 6 Banana fusarium Bark beetles African swine wilt disease fever (ASF) (BFWD) Avian Influenza - - Citrus greening (AI) disease Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) AsiA 19 Fall armyworm Boxwood blight Desert Locust African swine Tilapia Lake virus (FAW) Boxwood moth Italian Locust fever (ASF) disease (TiLV) Banana fusarium Dry cone Migratory locust Foot-and-mouth wilt disease syndrome disease (FMD) (BFWD) Moroccan locust Western conifer Avian Influenza Cassava mosaic seed bug (AI) disease (CMD) Lumpy skin Wheat rust disease (LSD) Coffee disease Rice blast disease euRoPe 8 Xylella fastidiosa Pine Italian Locust African swine on olive processionary Moroccan locust fever (ASF) moth Avian Influenza - Bark beetles (AI) Lumpy skin disease (LSD) oCEANiA 2 Fall armyworm African swine - - - (FAW) fever (ASF) totAl by 12 10 4 5 1 FCC category

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AFriCA

In Africa, 120 FCC events in 46 countries were forecasted, comprising plant pests and diseases, locusts, animal and aquatic diseases, and forest pests. The likelihood of occurrence varies from Moderate to High. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

PlanT PesTs and diseases fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in East Africa, fall armyworm (faW) presence has been officially confirmed in all East African countries except Djibouti. In most East Africa countries, the forecast period (April – June) coincides with the major growing season of maize, the pest’s preferred host, and the maize crop will be at risk. Unless appropriate action is taken, the likelihood of spread and damage will be high because the pest will have full access to the susceptible maize crop. in North Africa, Egypt has officially reported presence of FAW on maize fields in southern Egypt, and the pest continues to spread northwards. The Sudan has reported introduction of the pest since 2017. The climate in Egypt and the Sudan allows for the continuous planting of many host plants, which increases the likelihood of pest spread and damage. Mauritania is highly susceptible to FAW introduction, principally in its border regions with suitable climatic conditions: Trarza, Brakna, Gorgol, Guidimaka, Assaba, Hodh El Gharbi, and Hodh Ech Chargui Regions, and particularly the irrigated farms in the Senegal River basin that grow host plants. in southern Africa, during this forecast period, most countries will be in the end of the growing season; therefore, there will be a likelihood of FAW amplification and spread. in Central Africa, the likelihood of FAW spread and amplification of FAW depends on the availability of the host plant in different countries. If the growing season starts or is under way during the forecast period, then there is a moderate likelihood of amplification. Otherwise, if the growing season is ending or the crop is in the harvest period, then there will be a moderate likelihood of FAW spread. in West Africa, FAW is established in all 15 countries. The forecast period will coincide with the starting of the maize season in most of the countries. Therefore, FAW populations that have survived through the dry season are likely to re-emerge and amplify on the fresh crop. in East Africa, Cassava mosaic disease and Cassava brown streak disease continue to affect countries and may amplify where weather conditions are favourable. Banana diseases such asbacterial wilt and bunchy top disease might also occur. in North Africa, Tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) will have a moderate possibility of spread as tomato host plants are grown in open fields between April and June. in Central Africa, Banana bunchy top disease, Cassava brown streak and Cassava mosaic diseases continue to affect the region and may escalate.

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AFriCA loCusts in East Africa, a dramatic increase in Desert Locust numbers is expected in the Horn of Africa, with more swarms forming. Some of these are expected to remain and breed again, while others will move northwards. in southern Africa, after fledging, red locust adults could form groups and small swarms from May, as vegetation will dry out or be burned. In Madagascar, hopper development of the third generation of the Malagasy Migratory locust will end from mid-April, and adult groups and swarms are expected to form, which could lead to a crisis.

ANiMAl disEAsEs

avian influenza (ai) H5N1 and H5N8 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) viruses may sporadically cause new outbreaks in countries where HPAI is known to be endemic (e.g. Nigeria). However, the risk is considered low to moderate for the forecast period, given the observed seasonality of the disease. In some countries, the risk will even be nil. H9N2 Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) is considered endemically circulating in some African countries (Côte D’Ivoire, Ghana and Senegal), causing losses to poultry production. - in North Africa, circulation ofH5n1 HPai, H5n2 HPai, H5n8 HPai and H9n2 lPai is expected to continue in Egypt at a moderate intensity until June 2020. - in West Africa, after sustained circulation in 2016–2017, H5n8 HPai re-emerged in Nigeria in February 2018. Since then, the country has reported sporadic outbreaks (January–March 2019), so that continuing circulation of the virus cannot be ruled out. In November 2019, H5n6 HPai was reported for the first time in the country: it had been detected in June 2019 in birds of a live bird market located in Sokoto State. The risk of re-emergence of H5 strains for the period April–June 2020 is therefore considered low to moderate. - in Central and East Africa, reports of H5n8 HPai virus have ceased since december 2017, and the risk for the period April–June 2020 is considered nil. - in southern Africa, no H5n8 HPai outbreaks have been observed in South Africa and Namibia since October and June 2019, respectively. Nevertheless, as the colder season is approaching in this hemisphere, the risk for the period April–June 2020 is still considered low in Namibia and in South Africa. It should be noted that this assessment is based on relatively scarce data, given that, for example, LPAI viruses are not notifiable to the OIE and countries with endemic circulation of HPAI viruses arenot required to report every individual Avian influenza event.

foot-and-mouth disease (fMd) FMD is likely to continue to occur in North, West, Central, East and southern Africa.

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AFriCA

foot-and-mouth disease (fMd), serotype o Circulation of FMD serotype O (topotype EA-3) is ongoing in North Africa (Algeria, Libya and Morocco) and West and Central Africa. Virus sequences analysis shows a close relationship between the FMD strains that circulated in North Africa and West and Central Africa in 2018–2019, suggesting the importance of cross-Saharan livestock movements in FMD spread and maintenance in the region. Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and throughout the region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Algeria, Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Senegal, Tunisia, etc.). The disease is likely to continue to occur in the region. - in southern and East Africa, FMD serotype O was recently detected in Ethiopia and Kenya. FMDV serotype O (topotype EA-2), reported in Zambia until July 2019 and which seems to correspond to a southern movement of the virus, can sporadically re-emerge in Zambia (in non-vaccinated areas). These events may be of concern due to the possible spread of the disease into the Southern African region, reaching countries that have never been affected by this particular serotype before (e.g. Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe). If this happens, the impact on the subregion’s beef-exporting countries would be serious. - in Comoros, an FMD serotype O (topotype EA-2) outbreak was reported for the first time in March 2019, the sequences of which were most closely related to sequences from the United Republic of Tanzania. FAO and its partners are taking control measures through an emergency TCP and other actions; therefore, the risk of re-occurrence can be considered low. foot-and-mouth disease (fMd), saT 2 In November–December 2019 in south Africa, in Limpopo Province, FMD SAT2 outbreaks were reported. Although control measures were applied, the origin of the outbreak remains unknown. There is a low risk of disease re-occurring in the area. Recent outbreaks due to serotype SAT2 were reported in Zimbabwe; however, no genotyping has been reported. A new incursion of SAT2/VII lineage into Egypt was reported, most closely related to sequences from Ethiopia. Rift Valley fever (RVf) - Central and Eastern Africa: During the past three months, above-average and heavy rainfall and flash floods occurred in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania and, to a lesser extent, in southeastern Ethiopia, southwestern South Sudan, and parts of Somalia. Above-average rainfall also occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, except for the northern region, which was drier than normal. The precipitation forecasts predict above-average rains for the coming period (April–June 2020) for the entire region, including Chad and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool, the areas suitable for RVF vector amplification persist in the region, particularly in Burundi, south and central Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, and to a lesser extent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea and the Sudan. In addition, a few hotspots are also predicted in Cameroon, the Central African Republic, southern Chad, bordering the Niger, Nigeria and the Sudan. In October–November 2019, cases of RVF in humans and animals were confirmed in River Nile and Red Sea States (northeastern Sudan), and sporadic cases in humans were reported in White Nile, Gedaref, Kassala and Khartoum States.

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AFriCA

RVF was reported for the first time in Libya, in December 2019. This may pose a threat to the surrounding northern African countries. Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal marketing of infected animals, as well as the current and forecasted suitability of prevailing environmental conditions for vector amplification, the entire sub regions remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. - southern Africa: Since the beginning of the year, many areas of Southern Africa have received average and below-average rainfall. Above-average rainfall and floods have occurred in northern Malawi, northern Madagascar, and parts of Angola, southern Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia. In Southern Africa, the rainy season lasts from November to March. Historically, RVF outbreaks have occurred from January to March. For the coming period (April–June 2020), the precipitation forecasts predict rains well below average for the whole Southern African region. The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights some hotspots at risk of RVF vector amplification in eastern Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Small localized risk areas for vector amplification are also predicted in Madagascar and Malawi. The risk of RVF occurrence is from moderate-to-low in Angola, Botswana, Madagascar, Namibia and South Africa. - West Africa: During the past three months, average and below-average rainfall has been observed over much of West Africa, except for Mauritania and parts of Mali. The precipitation forecasts for April–June 2020, which coincides with the onset of the wet season, predict average and above-average rains, particularly in northern Mali, northern Mauritania, the Niger and northern Nigeria. Below-average rainfall is predicted in Senegal. According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool, the areas suitable for RVF vector amplification occur in central Mali, along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Senegal, in small localized areas of the Niger, and southern Senegal. These areas may be at low to moderate risk of RVF occurrence in the coming three months. foResT PesTs and diseases in Eastern Africa, Blue gum chalcid, Bronze bug and Red gum lerp psyllid insect pests are likely to continue spreading, causing severe damage in eucalyptus plantations. Applications of biological control agents to reduce these insect pest populations are in progress in some countries. The Polyphagous shot hole borer is likely to spread from South Africa to neighbouring countries.

AquAtiC disEAsEs in southern Africa, Zambia is at risk of the fish diseasee pizooticu lceratives yndrome (eus) re-emerging. The United Republic of Tanzania is at risk of EUS introduction because the disease is present in neighbouring countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia). Water temperatures during the period April–June in these countries range between 18°C to 25°C, which are optimal temperatures for the development of the oomycete fungus that causes the disease.

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AFriCA

Tilapia lake virus (TilV) may have a wider distribution than presently known. Based on an expert knowledge elicitation risk assessment for TiLV (available at http://www.fao.org/3/CA2864EN/ca2864en.pdf), the risk of TiLV spreading (in the absence of any controls) within a country where it is already present was found to be very high, whereas the risk of TiLV spreading from infected countries to other countries in the African region was found to be high. High awareness and vigilance for TiLV are required in tilapia-producing countries in North Africa (which includes Egypt, the world’s third largest tilapia producer and Republic of the Sudan), East Africa (which includes major tilapia-producing countries such as Kenya, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania, etc.), and Southern Africa (which includes major tilapia-producing countries such as Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, etc.). A surveillance plan may be necessary to determine the geographical extent and to prepare mitigation measures to limit its spread. Appropriate diagnostic testing is encouraged when unexplained mortalities of tilapia occur; testing is needed especially when clinical signs similar to those reported for TiLV and when permissive water temperatures (between 22°C and 32°C) are present. Public information campaigns are recommended, to advise aquaculturists on the threat posed by TiLV and on the need to report unexplained large-scale mortalities to biosecurity authorities. TiLV is likely to occur in countries where water temperatures range between 22°C and 32°C (usually between May and November, in some countries). The following farmed tilapia species are susceptible: Hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus hybrids), Nile tilapia (O. niloticus) and Red tilapia (Oreochromis sp.).

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AMEriCAs

In the Americas, 9 FCC events in 9 countries were forecasted, comprising aquatic diseases and forest pests. The likelihood of occurrence varies from Moderate to High. The following FCC events have significant regional implications.

PlanT PesTs and diseases in Central america, Citrus greening disease (also known as Huanglongbing – HLB) continues to be a major challenge. For bananas, the outbreak of Banana fusarium wilt disease caused by tropical race 4 is a major concern, although it has been reported only in Colombia.

ANiMAl disEAsEs african swine fever (asf) A risk of AsF spread in the Americas from Asian or European infected countries cannot be excluded. The major risk factors for the Americas are: (1) illegal or uncontrolled imports of pig meat products, either accidentally by tourists, farm workers, exchange students or hunters returning from endemic countries; (2) intentional smuggling of meat products for personal or commercial use; and (3) contaminated feed or feed ingredients. Producers should purchase swine feed only from trusted sources that apply appropriate biosecurity controls. The level of risk is from moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic); it survives in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the weak border inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries in Americas must be noted. avian influenza (ai) Only Mexico has reported HPAI outbreaks in the Americas region over the last forecast period (January–March 2020). Given the increasing temperatures during the current forecast period (April–June 2020), decreasing numbers of Avian Influenza outbreaks in poultry are generally expected. Nonetheless, a moderate risk of occurrence of H7n3 HPai in Mexico remains. Since April 2019, 41 H7N3 HPAI outbreaks have been reported in domestic birds in the central-southern part of the country, 19 of which from April to June 2019. Despite the onset of warmer temperatures 7N3 HPAIH7N, sporadic outbreaks are likely to be reported in the country given the endemicity of the disease. foot-and-mouth disease (fMd) The circulation of FMd in Venezuela, also due to the lack of adequate veterinary control and biosecurity caused by the political instability faced by the country in 2018–2020, is a potential reservoir for incursions into neighbouring countries, and a potential source for free zones in central and southern America.

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AMEriCAs

AquAtiC disEAsEs Based on an expert knowledge elicitation risk assessment for Tilapia lake virus (TilV) (available at http://www.fao.org/3/CA2864EN/ca2864en.pdf), the risk of TiLV spreading (in the absence of any controls) within a country where it is already present was found to be very high, whereas the risk of TiLV spreading from infected countries to other countries in the South American region was found to be high. Surveillance plans, control measures and awareness campaigns in tilapia-producing countries are required. Public information campaigns are recommended, to advise aquaculturists on the threat posed by TiLV and on the need to report unexplained large-scale mortalities to biosecurity authorities. TiLV is likely to occur in countries where water temperatures range between 22°C and 32°C. The following farmed tilapia species are susceptible: Hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus hybrids), Nile tilapia (O. niloticus), and Red tilapia (Oreochromis sp.). According to the scientific literature, TiLV is already present in Colombia and Ecuador, whereas an OIE notification states that it is present in Mexico, Peru and the United States of America; it may become a threat to other tilapia-producing Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries.

foResT PesTs and diseases Severe infestations ofBark beetles, in particular theDendroctonus frontalis species, are occurring in the dry corridor of Central america and will continue in the pine forests of Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Pine species Pinus caribea, Pinus oocarpa, and Pinus patula, within natural forests and plantations, have become more vulnerable to the beetles’ attacks because they are already stressed by prolonged drought and weakened due to poor forest management practices.

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AsiA

In Asia, a total of 93 FCC events were forecasted in 42 countries, comprising plant pests and diseases, locusts, animal and aquatic diseases, and forest pests. The likelihood of occurrence varies from Moderate to High. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

PlanT PesTs and diseases in south Asia, fall armyworm (faW) has been causing limited damage in most countries; however, even this relatively modest level of damage is economically important and a high alert has been activated. The chances of FAW spreads in the coming season is very high, given that most of the countries in South Asia and some in the Pacific region are easy to invade. The long dry spell is also favouring this pest, despite the modest level of control options and preparations put in place. Tomato leaf miner (Tuta absulata) is another increasingly threatening pests in most playhouse vegetable Solanaceous crops, such as tomato. It has been becoming increasingly been serious in Nepal and in certain parts of india. The pest also appears to be significantly important in protected vegetables, because of its faster multiplication. Almost all countries in South and Southeast Asia have been affected by the pest, and emergency and TCP project activities are being undertaken in 10 countries. Most recently, the pest has been detected in Australia; PNG has therefore operationalized a TCP to fund preparedness and early warning capacities. in West Asia, Yemen officially declared the introduction of FAW in 2018. This increases the risk of introduction of the pest into countries such as Oman and Saudi Arabia. The border between Yemen and Oman have a continuous range of vegetation featuring host plants that favour pest spread to farms in Dhofar Governorate, Oman. In addition, the suitable climatic conditions and vegetative cover along the western part of the shared border will encourage pest introduction into the Jazan, Najran and Asir Regions in Saudi Arabia. in Central Asia, Wheat rust disease outbreaks, particularly yellow rust, are likely in countries receiving high amounts of precipitation. in southeast Asia, Banana fusarium wilt disease, Tropical Race 4, has been present in Southeast Asia. It was recently reported in Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar and Viet Nam, and may further spread and cause damage. in south Asia, Banana fusarium wilt disease, Tropical Race 4, has been present in the region and may spread further and cause damage. Wheat rust disease epidemics may also occur in some locations. loCusts in West Asia, desert locust numbers are expected to increase because of spring breeding in the interior of Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Oman, where swarms could form. in south Asia, a substantial increase ofdesert locust numbers is expected, due to spring breeding followed by a threat of swarm invasion along the India-Pakistan border from the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Horn of Africa, approximately in June.

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in Central Asia, Moroccan locust hopper development will occur in April/May, with adults appearing from late May onwards, according to the countries’ reports. Hatching of italian and Migratory locusts will start from April, with hopper development taking place in May/June. Overall, it is expected that the infested areas will be similar to those covered in 2019.

ANiMAl disEAsEs avian influenza (ai) Based on seasonal patterns and the increasing temperatures during this forecast period, a decrease in the number of avian influenza outbreaks in poultry is generally expected during the period April–June 2020. However, five mainHighly Pathogenic avian influenza (HPai)subtypes (H5N1, H5N2, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8) with different H5 clades are still circulating in West, East, South, and Southeast Asia, and the risk of new outbreaks occurring in affected countries can be considered low to moderate for the period April–June 2020; a decrease in the number of outbreaks is expected towards June 2020. H9n2 low Pathogenic avian influenza (lPai) is considered to circulate endemically in many Asian countries, causing losses to poultry production. - H5n1 HPai continues to endemically circulate in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, and re-emerged in Bhutan and Nepal in April–May 2019. As of March 2020, this subtype continues to be reported in China, India and Viet Nam, and is known to circulate endemically in Bangladesh and Indonesia. - H5n2 HPai is circulating in Taiwan, Province of China and was last observed in February 2020. - In September 2019, H5n5 HPai was reported in domestic birds in Taiwan, Province of China. It was the first time Asia reported an H5N5 HPAI virus. By the end of February 2020, a total of 14 outbreaks were reported in Taiwan, Province of China alone. - The latest observations of H5n6 HPai occurrence in Asia were in February 2020, in both domestic and wild birds in China and in domestic birds in Viet Nam. - the H5n8 HPai virus, which emerged in China in May 2016, has spread to India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Nepal and the Republic of Korea (October–December 2016); Kazakhstan (January 2017); Saudi Arabia (December 2017); and Iraq and Pakistan (January 2018). The latest reports of H5N8 HPAI in Asia (Middle East) were recorded in February 2020, in a wild bird in Israel and in poultry in Saudi Arabia. It should be noted that this assessment is based on relatively scarce data, given that, for example, LPAI viruses are not notifiable to the OIE and countries where HPAI viruses circulate endemically are not required to report every individual AI event. african swine fever (asf) AsF continues to be reported in Asia. In particular, the following countries have reported outbreaks in domestic pigs and sporadic cases in wild boar: China (since August 2018); Mongolia (January 2019); Viet Nam (February 2019); Cambodia (April 2019); the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (May 2019);

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the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (June 2019); Myanmar (August 2019); the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Timor-Leste (September 2019) and Indonesia (December 2019). In January–February 2020, outbreaks continued to be reported in domestic pigs in China, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. A new front of LSD may open in Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, after the LSD outbreaks reported in China, right on the border with Kazakhstan In Indonesia, ASF was reported in domestic pigs in North Sumatra Province in December 2019 and in East Nusa Tenggara in February 2020. The disease was also reported in wild boar in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces in China in December 2018 and in Shaanxi in December 2019, and continues to be reported in Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces in the Republic of Korea. particularly Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, after the LSD outbreaks reported in China, right on the border with Kazakhstan front of LSD may open in Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, after the LSD outbreaks reported in China, right on the border witOver the last few months, there have been numerous detections of ASF virus in pork samples brought to countries in the region (e.g. Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines and Thailand). The risk of further spread of ASF within countries is considered high in countries that have already been infected. This also poses a risk of ASF introduction into other countries in East and Southeast Asia as well as the Pacific region, through the movement of live pigs and pork products. As the majority of pigs in the world are produced in Asia, especially China, the recent escalation of the ASF epidemic is likely to have devastating consequences for animal health and food security, as well as a noticeable impact on the pig industry and related businesses, not only in the region but worldwide. foot-and-mouth disease (fMd) FMd is likely to continue to occur in West, East and southeast Asia. FMD, serotype O (topotype ME-SA/ Ind-2001e) has been reported in three provinces of Pakistan in December 2019, where emergency and preventive vaccinations were carried out. These outbreaks raise concern because it is the first time that this lineage has been detected in a West Eurasian country, from which it may spread into countries such as the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey. FMD serotypes A, O and Asia1 are also reported to circulate in many countries in West and South Asia; in particular, in 2019, a high incidence of these serotypes was observed in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, the Syrian Arab Republic and Turkey. lumpy skin disease (lsd) - In West and Central Asia, outbreaks of lsd are likely to re-emerge in Turkey (which is considered endemic for the disease), in Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic (where the last outbreaks were reported in July 2019), and in neighbouring Central Asian countries (i.e. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Georgia), due to the increasing temperatures, which determines favourable weather conditions for vector amplification during the forecast period. In particular, in Central-East Asia, sporadic events may re-emerge, as observed in China, at the border with Kazakhstan, in August 2019. Though sporadic occurrence of the disease can be observed, the impact of the disease is considered low, because it can be mitigated through prevention measures (i.e. vaccination).

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- In south Asia, lsd was reported for the first time in September 2019 in Bangladesh and in November 2019 in India. The means through which the disease was introduced into the country remains unknown. The risk of the disease spreading is considered high within Bangladesh and India, as well as in neighbouring countries such as Nepal and Pakistan.

AquAtiC disEAsEs Based on an expert knowledge elicitation risk assessment for tilapia lake virus (TiLV) (available at http://www.fao.org/3/CA2864EN/ca2864en.pdf), the risk of TiLV spreading (in the absence of any controls) within a country where it is already present was found to be very high, whereas the risk of TiLV spreading from infected countries to other countries in the Asian region (including East and South Asia, which include the world’s major tilapia-producing countries such as Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam, etc.) was found to be high. TiLV is likely to occur in countries where water temperatures range between 22°C and 32°C (usually between May and November). The following farmed tilapia species are susceptible: Hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus hybrids), Nile tilapia (O. niloticus), and Red tilapia (Oreochromis sp.).

FoResT PesTs and diseases Boxwood blight (Calonectria pseudonaviculata) and Boxwood moth (Cydelima pesrpectalis) will spread and bear an impact in Georgia and in the Caspian forest of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In Lebanon, dry cone syndrome and Western conifer seed bug pest damage will continue at moderate and high levels; additionally, the activities of Western conifer seed bug will increase. In Turkey, Chestnut gall wasp is causing damage to chestnut trees and threatening the livelihoods of local communities. It is expected that pest pressure will decrease due to pest control activities. Biological control to reduce pest populations is in progress.

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In Europe, 48 FCC events are forecasted in 26countries, comprising locusts and animal diseases. The likelihood of occurrence varies from Moderate to High. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

PlanT PesTs and diseases in southern Europe, Wheat rust disease outbreaks, particularly yellow rust, are likely in countries receiving high amounts of precipitation. Olive decline caused by the Xylella fastidiosa bacterium continues to be a threat to olives in the Mediterranean coasts of Italy and France. loCusts in Eastern Europe, in the Russian Federation, italian, Migratory and Moroccan locusts will start hatching from late April. Hopper development followed by fledging will occur from May onwards. Overall, a slight increase in locust-infested areas is expected in 2020, compared to 2019.

ANiMAl disEAsEs african swine fever (asf) ASF outbreaks and transmission are likely to continue to occur in the affected countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Slovakia, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and, recently, Greece). Introduction of the disease into currently unaffected neighbouring countries is likely to occur (particularly in the Balkan peninsula, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo*, Montenegro and the Republic of North Macedonia), without ruling out longer jumps such as those observed in Czechia or Belgium. Czechia was the first country in the EU to be officially declared free from ASF in February 2019 after no new outbreak had been found in the country since April 2018. In September 2018, the virus affected the wild boar population in Belgium, where infected carcasses were last found in August 2019. In November 2019, some ASF-infected wild boar were found in Lubuskie province in Poland, approximately 40 km from the border with Germany. This increased the possibility of introduction of the disease into neighbouring Western European countries (e.g. France, Germany and Luxembourg). In all affected countries, ASF is likely to persist and become endemic due to the presence of wild boar populations. avian influenza (ai) the H5n8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPai) subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In accordance with seasonal patterns (increasing temperatures and northwards wild bird spring migrations), the overall risk for the period April–June 2020 is considered moderate, with an expected decrease to low towards June 2020. Since the virus was first introduced into Eastern Europe in mid-October 2016, it has been detected in 30 out of 43 European countries, particularly in West and Eastern Europe. In late December 2019, a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. So far, the disease has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight European countries, including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite increasing temperatures, additional outbreaks may be observed during the forecast period.

* References to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999).

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lumpy skin disease (lsd) lsd is likely to re-emerge in previously affected countries in Southern Europe (i.e. Albania, Greece, Kosovo*, Montenegro, the Republic of North Macedonia and Serbia) and to continue to occur in the Russian Federation (where last outbreak was reported in November 2019). In fact, during the forecast period, temperatures will increase, determining favourable weather conditions for vector amplification. Control measures in place (i.e. vaccination) can mitigate the impact of the disease.

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In Oceania, 9 FCC events are forecasted in 8 countries, comprising locusts and animal diseases. The likelihood of occurrence varies from Moderate to High. The following FCC events have significant regional implications:

PlanT PesTs and diseases Banana fusarium wilt disease, Tropical Race 4 has been found in two locations in Australia and continues to be a major concern.

ANiMAl disEAsEs african swine fever (asf) A risk of african swine fever (asf) spreading into Oceania from Asian or European infected countries cannot be excluded. The major risk factors for the Pacific islands and Australia are: (1) illegal or uncontrolled imports of pig meat products, either accidentally by tourists, farm workers, exchange students or hunters returning from endemic countries; (2) intentionally by smuggling meat products for personal or commercial use; and (3) contaminated feed or feed ingredients. Producers should only purchase swine feed from trusted sources that apply appropriate biosecurity controls. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic). It survives in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the weak border inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries in Oceania must be noted.

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Food ChAiN Crisis thrEAts ForECAstiNg At CouNtry lEVEl

This section provides, at country level, for the upcoming three months, forecasting of FCC threats having potential high impact on food and nutrition security. It also provides, when available and appropriate, background information on other factors impacting food and nutrition security. The country section includes countries for which information are available. This section assigns countries and areas to geographic regions on the basis of the current composition of macro geographical (continental) regions of the United Nations Statistics Division (United Nations Statistics Division – Standard Country and Area Codes Classification (M49); http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm). The assessment of the likelihood of occurrence was performed using fao data and information available at the time of preparation of this bulletin and might be subject to change at a later stage.

legend

likelihood of occurrence threat category high Moderate

animal and zoonotic diseases

aquatic diseases

Forest pests and diseases

locusts

Plant pests and diseases

high: an event is highly likely to occur Moderate: an event is likely to occur

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AFriCA

AlgEriA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. pest being introduced into Algeria because of the natural barrier Context: FMD, serotype O, circulated widely in 2018 and 2019 in of the Sahara desert. In addition, no North African countries North African countries (with more than 350 outbreaks reported sharing borders with Algeria have reported the pest. The pest in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia). The virus has been has particular biological and behavioural characteristics that circulating in Algeria since 2014 (topotype EA3). Further spread allow it to spread and cause damage as soon as it is introduced. of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and Context: The pest has been reported in Mali and the Niger in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against (countries neighbouring Algeria). However, the warm this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main semi-arid zone in the south of Mali and the Niger, and the risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD is a highly semi-arid and Mediterranean climatic zone in northern contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that Algeria, are separated by an arid desert climate area (over can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition 1 500 km wide), that forms a natural barrier against spread of to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal the pest. No other North African country sharing borders with disease for livestock trade. Algeria has reported the pest. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Locusts Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Desert Locust likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is forecast (april-June 2020): Small-scale breeding may occur near considered very likely, given animal movement and informal irrigated perimeters and areas of rainfall in central Sahara; no marketing of infected animals from neighbouring countries. significant developments are expected. Context: In December 2019, RVF was reported for the first time Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) in southern Libya, mostly due to movement of infected animals populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, from neighbouring countries. This event is of concern, because the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food the disease can spread to other North African countries (such security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s as Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia) through movements of infected population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert animal. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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ANgolA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification. amplification. Context: The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights Context: The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights some hotspots at risk of RVF vector amplification in eastern some hotspots at risk of RVF vector amplification in eastern Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Small localized risk Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Small localized risk areas for vector amplification are also predicted in Madagascar areas for vector amplification are also predicted in Madagascar and malawi. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that and malawi. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

BENiN threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be at the end of the forecast (april-June 2020): The main maize season should growing, and then of the harvesting, stages. Therefore, there is a start by the beginning of May. The availability of maize in the possibility of FAW spreading. vegetative stage increases the likelihood of FAW re-emergence Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the and amplification. 2016/2017 season. The pest continued to cause serious damage Context: Benin was among the first countries to be affected by to the maize crop during the 2017/2018 production season. FAW, in April 2016. Actions to monitor and manage the pest are ongoing through various projects. BurkiNA FAso threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases BotsWANA threat category: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth likelihood of occurrence: Moderate disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. forecast (april-June 2020): Foot-and-mouth disease, serotype Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating O, is likely to occur in the country, through introduction from a widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa, (with more than neighbouring country. 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, Nigeria, Zambia until July 2019 and may sporadically re-emerge in Senegal and Sierra Leone). Further spread of the disease is likely non-vaccinated areas. These events are of concern because to occur within the infected countries and in the entire region, the disease may spread into Southern Africa (for example, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain in Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe, which has never been of the virus. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants affected by this particular serotype). FMD is a highly contagious (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. livestock trade.

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BuruNdi threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable Context: The disease is currently present in the southern part environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal of the country and has already affected banana production in movement and informal marketing of infected animals. recent years. Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) is transmitted Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks through infected cuttings or aphids, causing stunting and occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal a bunchy appearance. If any fruit is produced, it would be marketing of infected animals, as well as current and deformed. forecasted suitability of the environmental conditions for vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of ChAd RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) abortion of RVF-infected livestock. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth threat category: Plant pests and diseases disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa, (with more likelihood of occurrence: high than 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, forecast (april-June 2020): There will be sufficient maize to Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, sustain high FAW populations. FAW is also likely to survive on Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to alternate hosts and to spread to other parts of the country. be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Context: In Burundi, the pest has infested all 17 provinces of the Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread country. In agricultural season B (from March to June), maize is of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and grown in some parts of the country. in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. FMD has also been observed in FMD is a highly CAMErooN small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal likelihood of occurrence: Moderate disease for livestock trade. forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa, (with more than likelihood of occurrence: high 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, Nigeria, forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence Senegal and Sierra Leone). Further spread of the disease is likely is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable to occur within the infected countries and in the entire region, environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain movement and informal marketing of infected animals. of the virus. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly contagious occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a marketing of infected animals, as well as current and sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality forecasted suitability of the environmental conditions for in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of livestock trade. RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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CoNgo dJiBouti threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be in the vegetative, forecast (april-June 2020): FAW is likely to be introduced into and then in the harvesting, stages in some areas, Therefore, the country from neighbouring Ethiopia. Nevertheless, its there will be a possibility of FAW spread, re-emergence and spread will be limited because of the arid conditions prevailing amplification. and the limited availability of its preferred host (maize). Context: In July 2017, FAW was reported in the country. The pest Context: In Djibouti, the pest is suspected to be present. was identified in four maize production areas in the northern, However, this has not been confirmed. central and southern parts of the country. It has also been observed in sugar cane. Smallholder farmers, experimental threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases farms in agricultural centres and large private farms have been affected. Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: high CôtE d’iVoirE forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence threat category: Plant pests and diseases is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) movement and informal marketing of infected animals. likelihood of occurrence: high Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): The maize season will start by the occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal beginning of May. FAW recorded from the previous seasons will marketing of infected animals, as well as current and re-emerge and amplify on the new maize crop. forecasted suitability of the environmental conditions for Context: FAW prevalence in the country has been assessed, and vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of some regions may have not been infested by FAW yet. However, RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that FAW is highly likely to spread to the entire country. primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. deMoCRaTiC RePuBliC of THe Congo threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) threat category: Locusts likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Desert Locust forecast (april-June 2020): The potential risk of RVF occurrence likelihood of occurrence: Moderate is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable forecast (april-June 2020): Swarms may appear in the south environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal and along the northeast coast, where they are likely to transit movement and informal marketing of infected animals. through the country. Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks in Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) the region, animal movement and the informal marketing of populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, infected animals, as well as current and forecasted suitability the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food of environmental conditions for vector amplification, the entire security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s region remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be in the vegetative and harvesting stages in some areas. Therefore, there will be a possibility of FAW re-emergence, amplification and spreading, Context: FAW was reported for the first time in the country in December 2016. Actions to manage the pest are ongoing.

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egyPT EritrEA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): H5N1 and H5N8 Highly pathogenic forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence avian influenza (HPAI) and H9N2 Low pathogenic avian influenza is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable (LPAI) outbreaks are expected to continue to occur. environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal Context: H5N1 HPAI is endemic in Egypt. H5N8 HPAI has been movement and informal marketing of infected animals. present in the country since November 2016. In addition, H9N2 Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks LPAI is sporadically reported in the country. HPAI is a highly occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting marketing of infected animals, as well as current and in severe production losses that have an impact on food security forecasted suitability of the environmental conditions for and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) abortion of RVF-infected livestock. likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is threat category: Plant pests and diseases considered very likely, given animal movement and informal Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) marketing of infected animals from neighbouring countries. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: In December 2019, RVF was reported for the first time in southern Libya, mostly due to movement of infected animals forecast (april-June 2020): Although no maize will be available from neighbouring countries. This event is of concern, because during the forecast period, FAW could be introduced from the disease can spread to other North African countries (such Ethiopia and feed on other hosts. as Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia) through movements of infected Context: The presence of FAW was confirmed in all regions of animal. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily the country in 2018. The great efforts made by the Government affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, and communities to manage the pest resulted in a decline in causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of 2019, compared to 2018. RVF-infected livestock. threat category: Locusts threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Desert Locust Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Breeding will decline on the Red Sea forecast (april-June 2020): The season for growing the main coast. However, there is a threat of swarms from the Horn of host crop – maize – has started in southern Egypt, which Africa arriving in the western lowlands in June. increases the possibility of pest spread. In addition, the warm Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) weather conditions prevailing in April–May will encourage the populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, reproduction cycle of the pest. the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food Context: The pest was reported officially in Egypt in May 2019, security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s in three governorates in the south (latitude: 26°12’N), with a population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert low to medium infestation rate in maize fields. The pest has Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to not been reported to attack other crops. However, it has been swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. reported to spread northward, reaching latitude line 26°17’N. The Government has imposed measures based on monitoring and delivering recommendations to farmers.

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eTHioPia threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Locusts threat category: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Desert Locust likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): During this period, maize will be forecast (april-June 2020): Egg-laying, hatching, and formation present (at different vegetative stages except in Southwestern of hopper bands and swarms will continue. A re-invasion is Ethiopia and FAW infestation of maize is expected to be high. expected from the south, by swarms that will spread northwards Context: In Ethiopia, FAW attacks maize planted in all seasons: throughout the country in May/June. during the short rainy season (belg) and the main rainy season Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) (meher), as well as irrigated maize. In the country, over 458 populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, maize-growing districts (woredas) were affected by FAW. These the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food months fall within the main rainy season (meher season), security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s and are thus characterized by widespread sowing of maize, population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert covering most of the country. Irrigated maize will also be in the Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to reproductive growth stage; maize planted earlier may reach the swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. mature green cob stage. gABoN threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth forecast (april-June 2020): During the forecast period, maize disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. will be in the vegetative and harvesting stages in some areas. Context: FMD, serotype O was recently detected in Ethiopia Therefore, there will be a possibility of FAW spread, and Kenya. These events are of concern because the disease re-emergence and amplification. may spread into the Eastern African region, which has never Context: In late July 2017, FAW infestations were reported in been affected by this particular serotype before. FMD is a highly the Estuaire and Haut Ogooué Provinces. However, no official contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that declaration has been made by the Government and no control can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition measures have been undertaken to date. The country is to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal implementing a TCP-F project to map FAW distribution and to disease for livestock trade. confirm the status of the country. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable Context: The disease is currently present in the northern part environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal of the country and has already affected banana production in movement and informal marketing of infected animals. recent years. Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) is transmitted Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks through infected cuttings or aphids, causing stunting and occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal a bunchy appearance. If any fruit is produced, it would be marketing of infected animals, as well as current and deformed. forecasted suitability of the environmental conditions for vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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ghANA guiNEA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa, (with more widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa (with more than than 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, Nigeria, Senegal Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to be genetically very be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and to occur within the infected countries and in the entire region, in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of this particular strain of the virus. FMD has also been observed in the virus. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Mali, small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly contagious disease contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. disease for livestock trade. threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): FAW is likely to amplify during the forecast (april-June 2020): The main maize season will start forecast period as the maize season will start in most by the end of March, in the coastal and rainforest areas. It is agro-ecological zones of Guinea. expected that FAW will attack new maize crops that are in the Context: The country has benefitted from various projects to vegetative stage, which will increase the likelihood of FAW strengthen its capacities in FAW management. A recently signed amplification. project, which is funded by the African Development Bank and Context: FAW was first spotted in the Yilo Krobo District in the is due to start soon, includes a significant component on FAW Eastern Region of Ghana in 2016. Reports indicate that the surveillance and management. country has lost US$64 million due to FAW infestation, which covered 20 000 ha of farmland in 2018 alone. guinea-Bissau threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Cocoa swollen shoot disease likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth forecast (april-June 2020): Cocoa swollen shoot disease is likely disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. to spread and cause further damage. Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating Context: Cocoa swollen shoot disease caused by a viral agent is widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa (with more than currently present in the country. It has spread widely and has 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, affected over 17 percent of cocoa producers. The virus spreads Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, Nigeria, Senegal with infected planting materials and mealybugs. Therefore, crop and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to be genetically very sanitation, eradication and use of virus-free planting materials close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 are critical for disease management. (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade.

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guinea-Bissau threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Locusts Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Desert Locust likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): FAW is likely to amplify during the forecast (april-June 2020): New swarms will form, forecast period as the maize season will start in most supplemented by another invasion from the north in April, and agro-ecological zones. threaten crops. Some of the swarms are expected to move north Context: The country’s FAW management capacities have been while others remain in place, mature and lay eggs that would developed through a TCP and a project funded by the African hatch and cause hopper bands to form. Development Bank. Its capacities for biological control are being Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) developed thanks to cooperation with EMBRAPA. populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food kENyA security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert threat category: Plant pests and diseases Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): The forecast period (April to June) threat category: Plant pests and diseases coincides mostly with the main maize cropping season,and FAW Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) infestation of maize is expected to be high. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: FAW has been reported in all 47 counties (100 percent) of the country. forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. Context: The disease is present in the northern part of the country on a limited scale. Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases is considered one of the most damaging diseases of cassava Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Africa. It is caused by a virus that causes chlorosis and likelihood of occurrence: Moderate distortions of the leaves, resulting in yield reductions. It is forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth transmitted by infected cuttings and whiteflies. Thus, use of disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. virus free planting materials is critical for disease control. Context: FMD virus, serotype O was recently detected in Ethiopia and Kenya. These events are of concern because the liBEriA disease may spread into the Eastern African region, which has threat category: Plant pests and diseases never been affected by this particular serotype before. FMD is Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and likelihood of occurrence: high pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive forecast (april-June 2020): FAW was found in the country animal disease for livestock trade. in maize crops at the end of 2017. Recently, FAW has caused serious damage to various vegetable crops. The pest populations are likely to increase during the forecast period as the main threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases maize season will be ongoing in all agro-ecological zones. Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Context: The country has had to face serious infestations of likelihood of occurrence: high vegetable crops (cabbages, eggplants, etc.). Although maize forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is not an important crop, it will be necessary to continue is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable surveillance of FAW infestation of vegetables. environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of infected animals. Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal marketing of infected animals, as well as current and forecasted suitability of the environmental conditions for vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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liByA MAdAgAsCAr threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the Context: FMD, serotype O circulated widely in 2018 and 2019 in presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector North African countries (with more than 350 outbreaks reported amplification. in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia). The virus has been Context: The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights circulating in Algeria since 2014 (topotype EA3). Further spread some hotspots at risk of RVF vector amplification in eastern of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Small localized risk in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against areas for vector amplification are also predicted in Madagascar this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main and malawi. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD is a highly primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition abortion of RVF-infected livestock. to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. threat category: Locusts Threat name: Migratory Locust threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high threat category: Rift Valley fever (RVF) forecast (april-June 2020): Adults of the third generation of likelihood of occurrence: high the 2019/2020 rainy season should start to appear during the forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF spread is considered second half of April. It is expected that these adults will form very likely, given the current outbreak in the southern region, groups and swarms, which could lead to a crisis. presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector Context: Madagascar is prone to frequent Migratory Locust amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of crises, which affect the livelihoods as well as the food and infected animals. nutrition security of the population. The last plague occurred Context: In December 2019, RVF was reported for the first time from April 2012 to July 2016 and threatened 13 million persons. in the country, in southern Libya, mostly due to movement of infected animals from neighbouring countries. This event MAlAWi is of concern, because the disease can spread to other North African countries (such as Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia) through threat category: Plant pests and diseases movements of infected animal. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity likelihood of occurrence: Moderate to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be at the end of the death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. growing, and then of the harvesting, stages. Therefore, there is a possibility of FAW spreading. threat category: Plant pests and diseases Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) 2016/2017 main rainy season (November–March). The pest has caused serious damage to maize across the country, off-season likelihood of occurrence: Moderate irrigated maize (April–October), and other crops such as wheat. forecast (april-June 2020): There is a moderate probability of The Government declared a state of disaster due to the pest during the pest being introduced into Libya because Egypt – which the 2017/2018 rainfed cropping season (November–March). shares a border with Libya – has reported it. However, to date, the pest has been reported only in southern Egypt. The pest has particular biological and behavioural characteristics that allow it threat category: Forest pests and diseases to spread and cause damage as soon as it is introduced. Threat name: Blue gum chalcid Context: The pest may spread from the location in Egypt (Suhag likelihood of occurrence: high Governorate) to Libyan farms in Butnan District (approximately forecast (april-June 2020): Outbreaks of the Blue gum chalcid 1 000 km away), through the Nile Valley and then to the insect pest are likely to continue causing damage in eucalyptus Mediterranean coast. This is not as likely to happen, because nurseries and young plantations. of the wind direction (north and northwest). However, the khamasen wind blowing in April/May (towards south and Context: Blue gum chalcid continues to cause severe damage in southeast) may have favour pest spread to Libya. nurseries and young eucalyptus plantations in Malawi. Blue gum chalcid (Leptocybe invasa) is a major insect pest of young eucalyptus trees and seedlings.

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MAlAWi threat category: Forest pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: red gum lerp psyllid Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Red gum lerp psyllid is likely to forecast (april-June 2020): The maize season will start by spread in eucalyptus plantations. mid-April, which could increase the likelihood of the FAW Context: The combination of climate change, the general decline re-emergence and amplification. of forest conditions and the occurrence of Red gum lerp psyllid Context: The presence of FAW in the country was officially continues to damage plantations and small woodlots in Malawi. declared in early 2018. A FAO emergency project is being Red gum lerp psyllid (Glycaspis brimblecombei) nymphs and implemented to enhance the country’s FAW management adults feed on sugar-rich phloem. Excessive feeding pressure capacities. causes premature leaf drop. Extensive and repeated defoliation events caused by psyllid weaken trees and cause premature MAuritANiA death in the highly susceptible eucalyptus species. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) MAli likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa, (with more disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. than 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa (with more than Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, Nigeria, Senegal Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to be genetically very of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and close to the virus that has been circulating in Algeria since 2014 in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease is likely this particular strain of the virus. FMD has also been observed in to occur within the infected countries and in the entire region, small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that the virus. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Mali, can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly contagious disease to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp disease for livestock trade. drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) forecast (april-June 2020): The potential risk of RVF occurrence likelihood of occurrence: Moderate is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the forecast (april-June 2020): The potential risk of RVF occurrence presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector infected animals. amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of Context: According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning infected animals. tool, the areas suitable for RVF vector amplification are in Context: According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning central Mali, along the Senegal River between Mauritania and tool, the areas suitable for RVF vector amplification are in Senegal, in small localized areas of the Niger, and in southern central Mali, along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Senegal. These areas may be at low to moderate risk of RVF Senegal, in small localized areas of the Niger, and in southern occurrence in the next three months. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is Senegal. These areas may be at low to moderate risk of RVF a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the occurrence in the next three months. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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MAuritANiA threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The pest is reported to be present forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the in countries sharing borders with Mauritania: Senegal and Mali. pest being introduced into Morocco because no neighbouring The pest has high migratory and reproductive abilities that will North African countries have reported it. The pest has particular allow for fast spread. biological and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread Context: The pest has not been officially reported in Mauritania and cause damage as soon as it is introduced. yet. However, the climatic zones in southern Mauritania (which Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly are warm semi-arid) continue across the borders with the high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory infested countries of Senegal and Mali. ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize MAyottE and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. Morocco cultivates over 150 000 ha of maize every year, mostly by threat category: Plant pests and diseases small-scale farmers. Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Plant pests and diseases forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the Banana fusarium wilt Threat name: Wheat rust disease is likely. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: Tropical race 4 (TR4) of the Banana fusarium wilt disease was recently reported on the island of Mayotte forecast (april-June 2020): Wheat rusts are likely to spread, as (a French overseas territory), off the coasts of Mozambique. per the seasonal pattern. The disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it Context: Wheat rust diseases, particularly yellow rust, are becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants recurrent threats to wheat. Stem rust has also become a of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then problem in recent years. The disease infects especially the causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and vegetative parts of the plant, reducing photosynthesis and grain water, and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools weight. Excessive rains support disease development. Regular and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain surveys and timely actions are essential. viable in soil for decades and containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. MozAMBiquE threat category: Plant pests and diseases MoroCCo Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: A new race of the causal fungus of the disease forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) has affected two farms in Nampula disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. Province. Banana fusarium wilt disease is a soilborne disease Context: FMD, serotype O, circulated widely in 2018 and 2019 in caused by a fungal pathogen that cannot be eradicated once North African countries (with more than 350 outbreaks reported it becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia). The virus has been plants of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the circulating in Algeria since 2014 (topotype EA3). Further spread leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. Thus, use of of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and certified planting materials and prevention of spread is crucial. in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade.

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NAMiBiA NigEr (the) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Foot-and-mouth disease, serotype forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth O, is likely to occur in the country due to introduction from a disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. neighbouring country. Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa (with more Zambia until July 2019 and may sporadically re-emerge in than 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, non-vaccinated areas. These events are of concern because Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, the disease may spread into Southern Africa (for example, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to in Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe, which has never been be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in affected by this particular serotype). FMD is a highly contagious Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk livestock trade. factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the likelihood of occurrence: Moderate most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) amplification. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights some hotspots at risk of RVF vector amplification in eastern forecast (april-June 2020): The potential risk of RVF occurrence Angola, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Small localized risk is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the areas for vector amplification are also predicted in Madagascar presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector and malawi. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect infected animals. humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and Context: According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning abortion of RVF-infected livestock. tool, the areas suitable for RVF vector amplification are in central Mali, along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Senegal, in small localized areas of the Niger, and in southern threat category: Plant pests and diseases Senegal. These areas may be at low to moderate risk of RVF threat category: Fall armyworm (FAW) occurrence in the coming three months. Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: high is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be in the vegetative stage, capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses so there will be a high possibility for FAW re-emergence and due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock. amplification as well as spreading at the end of season on June. Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the 2016/2017 season. The pest continued to cause serious damage to the maize crop during the 2017/2018 production season, from November to March.

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NigEriA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): H5 Highly pathogenic avian influenza forecast (april-June 2020): The main maize season has already (HPAI) outbreaks may occur. started in almost all agro-ecological zones. Therefore, there will Context: The H5N1 HPAI virus has been circulating in Central be maize crops all over the country and FAW populations are and West Africa since December 2014, and Nigeria was the most very likely to amplify during this quarter. affected country. However, the most recent outbreak of H5N1 Context: Capacities for FAW management have been HPAI was reported at the end of May 2017. After sustained strengthened through the implementation of various projects. circulation in 2016–2017, H5N8 HPAI re-emerged in the region However, more efforts will be required as the country is one of in February 2018 in Nigeria. Since then, the country reported the most important maize producers in the region. sporadic outbreaks in 2019; therefore, continuing circulation of the virus cannot be ruled out. In November 2019, H5N6 HPAI threat category: Plant pests and diseases was reported for the first time in the country, detected in June 2019 in birds of a live bird market located in Sokoto State. The Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) risk of re-emergence of H5 strains for the period April–June likelihood of occurrence: Moderate 2020 is therefore considered low to moderate. HPAI is a highly forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting Context: The disease is already affecting cassava production in severe production losses that have an impact on food security in the country, especially in Bauchi and Delta States. CMD is and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. considered one of the most damaging diseases of cassava in Africa. It is caused by a virus that causes chlorosis and threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases distortions of the leaves, resulting in yield reductions. It is Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) transmitted by infected cuttings and whiteflies Thus, use of virus-free planting materials is critical for disease control. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth rWANdA disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. threat category: Plant pests and diseases Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa (with more Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) than 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, likelihood of occurrence: high Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, forecast (april-June 2020): There will be sufficient maize to Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to sustain high FAW populations. be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in Context: In Rwanda, the pest has infested all 30 districts of the Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread country. In agricultural season B (from March to June), maize is of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and grown in some parts of the country. in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD has also been observed in small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade.

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rWANdA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The potential risk of RVF occurrence forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the Context: The disease is present in the country on a limited scale. presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) is considered one of the most amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of damaging diseases of cassava in Africa. It is caused by a virus, infected animals. which causes chlorosis and distortions of the leaves that reduce Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks yields. It is transmitted by infected cuttings and whiteflies. occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal marketing of infected animals as well as current and forecasted sENEgAl suitability for vector amplification, the whole region remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. Considering that Rwanda threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases has vaccinated 67% of livestock, the risk can be considered Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) moderate. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily likelihood of occurrence: Moderate affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. RVF-infected livestock. Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa (with more threat category: Forest pests and diseases than 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Threat name: Bronze bug Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to likelihood of occurrence: Moderate be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in forecast (april-June 2020): The Bronze bug insect pest is likely Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread to spread in eucalyptus plantations. of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and Context: The results of a survey conducted to identify damage in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against caused by the Bronze bug indicate that this insect pest poses this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk a serious threat to eucalyptus forestry in Rwanda. Bronze bug factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD has also been (Thaumastocoris peregrinus) is a sap-sucking insect pest native observed in small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). to Australia. It is currently infesting eucalyptus plantations in FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, Europe, southern Africa and South America. Severe infestations sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat of this pest result in leaf senescence, leaf loss, thinning tree production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the canopies and branch dieback. most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. threat category: Forest pests and diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Blue gum chalcid Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Blue gum chalcid is likely to spread forecast (april-June 2020): The potential risk of RVF occurrence further in eucalyptus nurseries and young plantations. is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the Context: The pest is currently causing severe damage presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector in eucalyptus nurseries, woodlots and plantations. Pest amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of management options are being provided to farmers. These infected animals. include good nursery hygiene practices to reduce the pest Context: According to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning population. Blue gum chalcid (Leptocybe invasa) is a major tool, the areas suitable for RVF vector amplification are in insect pest of young eucalyptus trees and seedlings. central Mali, along the Senegal River between Mauritania and Senegal, in small localized areas of the Niger, and in southern Senegal. These areas may be at low to moderate risk of RVF occurrence in the next three months. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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sENEgAl soMAliA threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The maize season is expected to forecast (april-June 2020): FAW will therefore have access to start in May. Therefore, the likelihood of FAW attacking maize in maize and sorghum in almost all growing areas of the country the vegetative stage will be high. during the forecast period, and infestation is expected to be Context: Maize is not particularly important in Senegal. high. However, the country’s capacity for surveillance of FAW must be Context: FAW is now fully established across the country; developed, as the pest may infest other cereal crops that are of however, farmers have neither adequate knowledge nor importance for the country. resources to manage the pest in their crops. In mid-April, planting will commence in the southern part of the country siErrA lEoNE (Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Southwest State), which is a major rainfed-maize and sorghum-growing area. Irrigated crops will threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases also be available. Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. likelihood of occurrence: high Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype EA-3) has been circulating widely since July 2018 in West and Central Africa (with more forecast (april-June 2020): The potential risk of RVF occurrence than 230 outbreaks reported in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, is considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger, presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone). The virus observed seems to amplification, animal movement and informal marketing of be genetically very close to the virus that has been circulating in infected animals. Algeria since 2014 (serotype O, topotype EA3). Further spread Context: During the last three months, above-average and heavy of the disease is likely to occur within the infected countries and rainfall and flash floods occurred in the region, particularly in in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against November 2019. The precipitation forecasts predict this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk above-average rains for the coming period (April–June 2020) factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD has also been for Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, observed in small ruminants (Mali, Mauritania and Senegal). Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania and, to a lesser FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, extent, for the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool, there are large production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the areas at risk of RVF vector amplification in Burundi, Eritrea, most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. southern Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia (large areas in the south and small hotspots in the north), southern Sudan, southeastern South Sudan, northeastern Uganda and the threat category: Plant pests and diseases eastern part of the United Republic of Tanzania. Considering the Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) past and recent RVF outbreaks occurring in the region, animal likelihood of occurrence: high movement and the informal marketing of infected animals, forecast (april-June 2020): The maize season will start in May as well as current and forecasted suitability of environmental (in the uplands). Thus, the likelihood of FAW amplification is conditions for vector amplification, the entire region remains expected to be high. at high risk of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity The country’s capacity for FAW management and Context: to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to surveillance must be strengthened. death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.livestock.

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soMAliA threat category: Locusts threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: Desert Locust Threat name: Polyphagous shothole borer (PSHB) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Swarms will continue to breed in forecast (april-June 2020): The Polyphagous shothole borer northern and central areas, supplemented by swarms coming (PSHB) insect pest is likely to have low levels of activity in fruit from the south. orchards, urban landscapes and plantation forests, due to the Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) low temperatures prevailing in the winter. populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, Context: PSHB is an ambrosia beetle in the Curculionidae family. the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food The insect pest has a mutualistic relationship with the fungal security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s pathogen species Fusarium euwallace, which is introduced by population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert female beetles into the larval gallery and acts as the primary Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to food source of both adults and larvae. F. euwallaceae and other swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. fungi cause dieback of host trees due to clogging of the xylem vessels. PSHB is a highly polyphagous species and has a wide south AFriCA range of host trees and shrubs. The most severe economic impact has been seen in avocado production in Israel, where threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases PSHB is now described as a serious threat to the industry. The threat category: Rift Valley fever (RVF) pest was reported for the first time in South Africa in early 2017, likelihood of occurrence: Moderate and by July 2018 it was reported to have spread to all major forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is cities of South Africa and to neighbouring southern African considered moderate in some localized areas, due to the countries. Early survey and destruction of heavily infested trees presence of suitable environmental conditions for vector would help to reduce local populations of PHSB and its spread. amplification. Context: The FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool highlights south sudAN some hotspots at risk of RVF vector amplification in South Africa, threat category: Plant pests and diseases Botswana, Namibia and eastern Angola. Small localized risk Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) areas for vector amplification are also predicted in Madagascar likelihood of occurrence: high and malawi. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect forecast (april-June 2020): Maize and sorghum will be widely humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and cultivated, and FAW infestation is expected to be high. abortion of RVF-infected livestock. Context: In South Sudan, the pest has been reported in all 10 states of the country. April to June is the main crop-growing season in the country threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be in the vegetative stage. Therefore, there will be a possibility of FAW re-emergence and likelihood of occurrence: high amplification as well as spread at the end of season, in June. forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable 2016/2017 season. The pest continued to cause serious damage environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal to the maize crop during the 2017/2018 production season. movement and informal marketing of infected animals. (November to March). South Africa has institutional response Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks capacities that are expected to moderate the impact of the pest occurring in the region, animal movement and the informal in the short term. marketing of infected animals, as well as current and forecasted suitability of environmental conditions for vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of RVF-infected livestock.

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south sudAN threat category: Locusts threat category: Locusts Threat name: Desert Locust Threat name: Desert Locust likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Swarms may invade the country forecast (april-June 2020): Locusts will shift from the Red Sea to from Kenya and Uganda and probably transit northwards. the Nile Valley, where small-scale breeding may occur. However, some may remain, mature, lay eggs that would hatch A potential swarm invasion from the south could occur in June. and form hopper bands. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. sWAzilANd sudAN (the) threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be in the vegetative stage. forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence Therefore, there will be a possibility of FAW re-emergence and is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable amplification as well as spread at the end of season, in May. environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the movement and informal marketing of infected animals. 2016/2017 season. The pest caused serious damage to sorghum, Context: In October–November 2019, cases of RVF in humans millet and maize across the country, into the 2017/2018 season. and animals were confirmed in River Nile and Red Sea States (northeastern Sudan), and sporadic cases in humans were togo reported in White Nile, Gedaref, Kassala and Khartoum States. threat category: Plant pests and diseases Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects threat category: Fall armyworm (FAW) animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of likelihood of occurrence: high RVF-infected livestock. forecast (april-June 2020): FAW is likely to re-emerge and amplify, as in some zones, the main maize season started in March. Context: In 2016, FAW was detected in samples from Togo. It is threat category: Plant pests and diseases currently present in all maize-growing regions of the country. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: high tuNisiA forecast (april-June 2020): The growing season of the main host threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases crops – maize and sorghum – has started in the Sudan, which Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) increases the possibility of pest spread. In addition, the warm weather conditions prevailing during April–May will encourage likelihood of occurrence: Moderate the reproduction cycle of the pest. forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth Context: The pest was officially reported in the Sudan in disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. 2017, and has spread to all locations with suitable hosts and Context: FMD, serotype O, circulated widely in 2018 and 2019 in favourable climatic conditions. The pest can attack more than North African countries (with more than 350 outbreaks reported in 100 plant species. However, it can cause significant losses Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia). The virus has been circulating particularly in maize and sorghum crops. The Sudan cultivates in Algeria since 2014 (topotype EA3). Further spread of the disease more than 7 million ha of sorghum every year. is likely to occur within the infected countries and in the entire region, where livestock is not immunized against this particular strain of the virus. Animal mobility is the main risk factor in the spread of FMD in the region. FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade.

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tuNisiA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence considered very likely, given animal movement and informal is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable marketing of infected animals from neighbouring countries. environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal Context: In December 2019, RVF was reported for the first time movement and informal marketing of infected animals. in southern Libya, mostly due to movement of infected animals Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks in from neighbouring countries. This event is of concern, because the region, animal movement and the informal marketing of the disease can spread to other North African countries (such infected animals, as well as current and forecasted suitability as Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia) through movements of infected for vector amplification, the whole region remains at high risk animal. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans, primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect causing significant economic losses due to death and abortion of humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and RVF-infected livestock. abortion of RVF-infected livestock. threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Locusts Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Desert Locust likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the forecast (april-June 2020): Swarms may invade the country pest being introduced into Tunisia because no neighbouring from the east and probably transit to the north. However, a few North African country has reported it. The pest has particular swarms may remain, mature, lay eggs that would hatch and biological and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread form hopper bands. and cause damage as soon as it is introduced. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) Context: The pest has not been reported in Tunisia yet, or in populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, any neighbouring country. The pest has a wide host range, but the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food causes particularly high damage to maize and sorghum crops. security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s The high migratory ability of the pest allows the adult moth to population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert fly over 100 km per night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to cultivation of maize and other crops, especially for small holder swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. farmers. threat category: Plant pests and diseases ugANdA Threat name: Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) threat category: Plant pests and diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. likelihood of occurrence: high Context: The disease is already present in the country. forecast (april-June 2020): Given the widespread availability of The disease can cause brownish rots in tubers that make the maize crop, it is forecasted that FAW infestation will be high them inedible. This leads to a severe loss of economic value. in all districts. Farmers may be unaware that cassava crops are infected until Context: In Uganda, the pest has been confirmed in all 121 they harvest and see the tuber lesions, as leaves may appear districts, that is, 100 percent of the territory. Within the first asymptomatic. The virus is transmitted through infected cuttings week of March, most parts of the country have received rain. and whiteflies. Use of virus-free planting materials and the By April, many farmers will have planted maize, which is the adoption of integrated management is therefore essential for preferred crop for FAW control.

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ugANdA threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Anthracnose disease Threat name: Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Further spread of the Anthracnose forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. disease on banana is likely Context: Cassava brown streak virus disease (CBSD) is already Context: Anthracnose disease, caused by fungal agents present in the country. The disease can cause brownish rots in belonging to the Colletotrichum species, has recently been tubers that make them inedible. This leads to a severe loss of reported in Ntungamo and Kabarole Districts especially. The economic value. Farmers may be unaware of infections until fungus causes brownish-red lesions on fruit peels, reducing their they harvest and see the tuber lesions, because the leaves may market quality. The disease may develop as a problem in banana appear asymptomatic. The virus is transmitted through infected production, in addition to Xanthomonas wilt disease. cuttings and whiteflies. Use of virus-free planting materials and the adoption of integrated management is therefore essential uniTed RePuBliC of TanZania for control. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases zAMBiA Threat name: Rift Valley fever (RVF) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) forecast (april-June 2020): The risk of RVF occurrence is considered very likely, given the presence of suitable likelihood of occurrence: Moderate environmental conditions for vector amplification, animal forecast (april-June 2020): The further spread of Foot-and-mouth movement and informal marketing of infected animals. disease (FMD), serotype O, is likely to occur within the country. Context: Considering the past and recent RVF outbreaks in Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in the region, animal movement and the informal marketing of Zambia until July 2019 and may sporadically re-emerge in infected animals, as well as current and forecasted suitability non-vaccinated areas. These events are of concern because for vector amplification, the entire region remains at high risk the disease may spread into Southern Africa (for example, of RVF occurrence. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that in Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe, which has never been primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect affected by this particular serotype). FMD is a highly contagious humans, causing significant economic losses due to death and disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a abortion of RVF-infected livestock. sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Fall armyworm (FAW) threat category: Plant pests and diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be in the vegetative and harvesting stages in some areas. Therefore, there will be a likelihood of occurrence: Moderate possibility of FAW spread, re-emergence and amplification. forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be at the end of the Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the vegetative, and then of the harvesting, stage. Therefore, there 2016/2017 season, and the pest continued to cause damage will be a possibility of FAW re-emergence and amplification, as to maize during the 2017/2018 production season well as spread. (November–March). Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the 2016/2017 season. The pest continued to cause damage to maize during the 2017/2018 production season (November–March). threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: Blue gum chalcid likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Blue gum chalcid is likely to spread further in eucalyptus nurseries and plantations. Context: This pest continues to cause damage in eucalyptus nurseries, woodlots and plantations. Blue gum chalcid (Leptocybe invasa) is a major insect pest of young eucalyptus trees and seedlings.

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zAMBiA ziMBABWE threat category: Forest pests and diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Blue gum chalcid Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the Blue gum chalcid forecast (april-June 2020): Foot-and-mouth disease, serotype insect pest is likely to continue in eucalyptus nurseries and O, is likely to occur in the country through introduction from a plantations. neighbouring country. Context: Pest management activities based on silvicultural Context: FMD, serotype O outbreaks have occurred in practices, breeding programmes and quarantine measures are Zambia until July 2019 and may sporadically re-emerge in in progress to reduce insect populations. Biological control non-vaccinated areas. These events are of concern because agents to reduce Blue gum chalcid populations are currently the disease may spread into Southern Africa (for example, being introduced. Blue gum chalcid (Leptocybe invasa) is a major in Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe, which has never been insect pest of young eucalyptus trees and seedlings. affected by this particular serotype). FMD is a highly contagious disease affecting cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production, in addition to mortality threat category: Forest pests and diseases in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for Threat name: red gum lerp psyllid livestock trade. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of Red gum lerp psyllid is threat category: Plant pests and diseases likely to continue in eucalyptus plantations. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Context: Pest management activities based on silvicultural Moderate practices are in progress. Red gum lerp psyllid (Glycaspis likelihood of occurrence: brimblecombei) nymphs and adults feed on sugar-rich forecast (april-June 2020): Maize will be at the end of phloem. Excessive feeding pressure causes premature leaf vegetative stage, and then in the harvesting stage. Therefore, drop. Extensive and repeated defoliation events caused by there will be a possibility of FAW re-emergence and psyllid weaken trees and cause premature death in the highly amplification, as well as spread. susceptible eucalyptus species. Context: The presence of FAW was first reported during the 2016/2017 season. The pest continued to cause damage to maize during the 2017/2018 production season (November–March). threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) threat category: Forest pests and diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: red gum lerp psyllid forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) poses a major challenge for cassava production in the country. CMD is considered one forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of Red gum lerp psyllid is of the most damaging diseases of cassava in Africa. It is caused likely to continue in eucalyptus plantations. by a virus that causes chlorosis and distortions of the leaves, Context: Pest management activities based on the application reducing yields. In addition, Cassava brown streak virus has of biological control agents to reduce pest populations are in recently been detected, and may escalate. Both viruses are progress. Blue gum chalcid (Leptocybe invasa) is a major insect transmitted by infected cuttings and whiteflies. Use of virus-free pest of young eucalyptus trees and seedlings. planting materials in sowing is therefore critical.

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AMEriCAs

CANAdA guAtEMAlA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: Bark beetles likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very forecast (april-June 2020): Bark beetles (mainly Dendroctonus likely to spread from affected countries. frontalis) are likely to continue causing damage to pine Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. plantations. The high temperatures and low precipitation levels However, a risk of ASF spread in the Americas from Asian or during April–June are likely to weaken pine trees and make them European infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk susceptible to Bark beetle attacks. is from moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant Context: Silvicultural practices to reduce pest populations are in to broad ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it progress. Training of foresters on prevention and management survives in the environment and pork products (and can remain practices is ongoing. The adults and larvae of Dendroctonus spp. viable in raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition are bark-feeding. The flight activities of D. frontalis are almost to the progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak continuous throughout the year in Mesoamerica. Generally, the border inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some pest attacks stressed trees. countries in the Americas must be noted. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high hoNdurAs mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. threat category: Forest pests and diseases ColoMBiA threat category: Bark beetles threat category: Plant pests and diseases likelihood of occurrence: high threat category: Banana fusarium wilt disease forecast (april-June 2020): Bark beetles (mainly Dendroctonus likelihood of occurrence: Moderate frontalis) are likely to continue causing damage in pine plantations. The increasing temperatures and low precipitation forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is possible. levels prevailing from April to June are likely to weaken the pine Context: The most recent race of the causal fungus of the disease trees and make them susceptible to Bark beetle attacks. (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) has been detected in the northern region Context: Bark beetles affect approximately 500 000 ha of conifer of La Guajira, in northern Colombia. This was the first report of forests in Honduras. Training of foresters on prevention and the disease in the continent. Banana fusarium wilt disease is management practices is in progress. The adults and larvae soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes established of Dendroctonus spp. are bark-feeding. The flight activities in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all ages, initially of D. frontalis are almost continuous throughout the year in appearing with yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting Mesoamerica. Generally, the pest attacks stressed trees. and plant death. Infected planting materials and water, and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil MExiCo for decades and containment and management are challenging. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate El sAlVAdor forecast (april-June 2020): H7N3 Highly pathogenic avian threat category: Plant pests and diseases influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are expected to continue to occur. Threat name: Citrus greening disease/Huanglongbing disease (HLB) Context: H7N3 HPAI has been sporadically reported in Mexico since 2012. In 2019, starting in April, 26 H7N3 HPAI outbreaks likelihood of occurrence: high were reported, affecting domestic birds in the central-southern forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the Citrus greening part of the country. Due to the approaching cold season, disease (HLB) is very likely additional outbreaks are likely to be reported. HPAI is a highly Context: The Citrus greening disease (also known as contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. Huanglongbing, – HLB), which is caused by the bacterium It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export Candidatus liberibacter, has spread widely, prompting markets and drastic disease control measures that include announcement of an emergency. The bacterium is spread by culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on physillids and causes the greening of fruits, severely reducing food security and trade. Some avian influenza viruses can affect their quality. Control is challenging and crop hygiene, vector humans. control and tolerant varieties can be considered as responses to address the disease.

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NiCArAguA VENEzuElA threat category: Forest pests and diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Bark beetles Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): It is highly likely that Bark beetles forecast (april-June 2020): Further spread of Foot-and-mouth (mainly Dendroctonus frontalis) will continue to cause damage disease (FMD) is likely to occur within the country. in pine plantations. Context: The circulation of FMD in Venezuela, also due to the Context: Pest management activities based on silvicultural lack of adequate veterinary control and biosecurity caused by practices are in progress. The adults and larvae of Dendroctonus the political instability faced by the country in 2018–2020, is a spp. are bark-feeding. The flight activities of D. frontalis are potential reservoir for incursions into neighbouring countries, almost continuous throughout the year in Mesoamerica. In and a potential source for free zones in central and southern general, the pest attacks stressed trees. America. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and uNitEd stAtEs oF AMEriCA meat production, in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for livestock trade. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very likely to spread from affected countries, Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. However, a risk of ASF spread in the Americas from Asian or European infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak border inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries in the Americas must be noted. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available.

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AsiA

AFghANistAN BAhrAiN threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Wheat rust Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the wheat yellow rust forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the disease is likely as per the seasonal pattern pest being introduced into Bahrain because no neighbouring Context: Wheat rust diseases, particularly yellow rust, are countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological recurrent threats to wheat. It infects especially the leaves, and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause reducing photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains damage as soon as it is introduced. support disease development. Regular surveys and timely Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly actions are essential. high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize threat category: Locusts and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. Threat name: Moroccan Locust likelihood of occurrence: Moderate BANglAdEsh forecast (april-June 2020): Hopper development and fledging threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases should occur in April and some adult groups and swarms may Lumpy skin disease (LSD) form in May. The scale of infestations is expected to be similar to Threat name: that of 2019. likelihood of occurrence: high Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants forecast (april-June 2020): Lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, are likely to occur. jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural Context: In September 2019, LSD was reported for the first time populations. This species is one of the three locust pests in in Bangladesh, in Chittagong District. This was also the first time Central Asia. The Italian Locust is also present in the country; the disease has been reported in a South Asian country. As of however, it has not been reported as a pest for the last two November 2019, the disease has also spread to Dhaka District. years.

threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases AzErBAiJAN Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) threat category: Locusts likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Moroccan Locust forecast (april-June 2020): H5N1 Highly pathogenic avian likelihood of occurrence: Moderate influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are likely to occur. forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching will occur in April and will Context: The country is considered endemic for H5N1 HPAI. be followed by hopper development and fledging, with the likely Events can occur in domestic or wild birds. HPAI is a highly formation of adult groups. The scale of infestations is expected contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. to be similar to that of 2019. It generally results in severe production losses, loss of export Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants markets and drastic disease control measures that include in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, culling of infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural food security and trade. Some avian influenza viruses can affect populations. The Moroccan Locust is one of the two locust pests humans. in Caucasus.

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BhutAN ChiNA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): H5N1 Highly pathogenic avian forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are likely to occur. are very likely to continue to occur. Context: H5N1 HPAI has been reported in Bhutan since 2010. Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Asia in China, The last event of H5N1 HPAI in domestic birds occurred in in domestic pigs, in August 2018. As of 4 March 2020, 166 ASF August 2019. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing outbreaks have been reported in 32 provinces/administrative high mortality in domestic birds. It generally results in severe divisions out of 34. In addition, the disease has also been production losses, loss of export markets and drastic disease detected in wild boar in Jilin province, close to the borders with control measures that include culling of infected and in-contact the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, in Heilongjiang, birds. This has an impact on food security and trade. Some avian in Shaanxi and, in February 2020, in Hubei province. This fact influenza viruses can affect humans. enhances the likelihood of spread of ASF to neighbouring countries due to wild boar movement, in addition to the risks CAMBodiA posed by illegal imports of possibly contaminated pork products from China. An African Swine Fever Contingency Plan and threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Emergency Response Level II is under implementation in the Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) country. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both likelihood of occurrence: high domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are very likely to continue to occur. Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Cambodia on threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases 3 April 2019. As of 4 March 2020, 11 outbreaks have been Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) reported in five of the country’s 25 provinces. ASF is a highly likelihood of occurrence: Moderate contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. To date, no effective treatment nor forecast (april-June 2020): H5 and H7 HPAI and LPAI virus vaccine is available. outbreaks in poultry, as well as cases in humans (although sporadic), are expected to continue. Context: Several serotypes of HPAI and LPAI viruses are threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases circulating and being detected in China. In particular, H5N1 Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) HPAI and H5N6 HPAI can occur in the country. HPAI is a highly likelihood of occurrence: Moderate contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses that have an impact on food security forecast (april-June 2020): H5N1 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are likely to occur. and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. Context: In 2018, seven outbreaks caused by the virus were reported, in six different provinces; the latest outbreak occurred threat category: Plant pests and diseases in March 2019. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses that likelihood of occurrence: Moderate have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. forecast (april-June 2020): Further spread of the disease is likely. Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) was recently threat category: Plant pests and diseases reported in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium threat category: Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) wilt disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it likelihood of occurrence: Moderate becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and Context: The disease is present in the northern part of the water, and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools country, on a limited scale. Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) is and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain considered an emerging threat to cassava in the region. It is viable in soil for decades and containment and management are caused by a virus that causes chlorosis and distortion of the challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. leaves, resulting in reduced yields. The disease is transmitted by infected cuttings and whiteflies. Thus, avoiding sharing of infected materials and use of clean cuttings is key for prevention.

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ChiNA gaZa sTRiP threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Wheat rust Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of yellow rust disease is forecast (april-June 2020): The pest may be able to spread from likely. the location where it was reported in Egypt (Suhag Governorate) Context: Wheat yellow rust is a recurrent threat to wheat in to farms in the Gaza Strip (approximately 800 km away), through the country. It has appeared in Gansu, Ningxia and Shaanxi the Nile Valley and then to the Mediterranean coast, towards Provinces in northwest China. The disease infects especially the Sinai. This is more likely to happen because of the wind direction leaves, reducing photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive (north and northwest). However, the khamasen wind blowing rains support disease development. Regular surveys and timely in April/May (towards south and southeast) may hinder pest actions are essential. spread to the Gaza Strip. Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory threat category: Plant pests and diseases ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize likelihood of occurrence: high and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. forecast (april-June 2020): FAW migration from the southern part of the country to the north is expected. Further areas of gEorgiA crop field are also expected to be affected by FAW. threat category: Forest pests and diseases Context: On 20 February 2020 the Ministry of Agriculture and Threat name: Boxwood blight Rural Affairs issued a contingency plan for FAW control in the country. To date, 113 counties have reported cases of FAW likelihood of occurrence: Moderate occurrence. Compared to 2019, in 2020, China will witness a forecast (april-June 2020): Boxwood blight will continue to be larger base of FAW population sources, both from the southern present and is likely to show high levels of activity, due to the part of the country and introduced from neighbouring countries. increasing temperatures prevailing from April to June. Context: Monitoring of the spread of the disease is in deMoCRaTiC PeoPle’s RePuBliC of KoRea progress. Boxwood blight (also known as box blight) is a widespread fungal disease caused by the pathogen Calonectria threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases pseudonaviculata, affecting boxwood trees. Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high threat category: Forest pests and diseases forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks Boxwood moth are very likely to continue to occur. Threat name: likelihood of occurrence: high Context: ASF was reported for the first time in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on 23 May 2019, in Chagang forecast (april-June 2020): The moth has three to four province. Since then, no other ASF events have been reported generations per year in Georgia. The larvae will continue in the country. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, feeding on leaves, and these repeated attacks will lead to total both domestic and wild, which cause high mortality. No effective defoliation of the trees. The first flight of the season is likely to treatment nor vaccine is available. take place in April/May. Context: As part of the Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programme, the biopesticide Btk (Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki) and pheromone traps are being used to protect the native boxwood species. Boxwood moth (Cydalima perspectalis), which is native to eastern Asia, is highly destructive and defoliates boxwood trees. When the day length drops below approximately 13.5 hours, the larvae will “diapause” (enter the dormant stage of a developing insect) so that they can overwinter in a web spun on Buxus leaves. In this state, the pest can survive temperatures as low as - 30°C.

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gEorgiA threat category: Locusts threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Italian Locust Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching, followed by hopper forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. development, should start by mid-May. The scale of infestations Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana is expected to be higher than that of 2018. fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) is present in Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants northern parts of the country and can spread further. Banana in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, fusarium wilt disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural it becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana populations. The Italian Locust is one of the two locust pests in plants of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the Caucasus. leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and water, and movement of infested soil particles iNdiA with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) of spread is crucial. likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks threat category: Plant pests and diseases are likely to occur. Threat name: Wheat rust Context: In November 2019, LSD was reported for the first time likelihood of occurrence: Moderate in India, in Orisha State. The onset date of the outbreaks was August 2019. LSD was first reported in South Asia in Bangladesh, forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of wheat yellow rust is likely, in September 2019. LSD is a severe disease, transmitted by as per the seasonal pattern. vectors, that affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and Context: The disease is a recurrent threat to wheat. It has milk production losses. recently appeared in the northern parts of Haryana State. The disease infects especially the leaves, reducing photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains support disease threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases development. Regular surveys and timely actions are essential. Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Plant pests and diseases forecast (april-June 2020): H5N1 Highly pathogenic avian Threat name: Rice blast disease influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are likely to occur. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: The country is considered endemic for H5N1 HPAI. Events can occur in domestic or wild birds. HPAI is a highly forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the Rice blast disease is contagious disease causing high mortality in domestic birds. It likely. generally results in severe production losses, loss of export markets Context: Rice blast disease, which is caused by Pyricularia oryza, and drastic disease control measures that include culling of gave rise to problems in Rajanna and Karimnagar Districts in infected and in-contact birds. This has an impact on food security Hydarabad. The disease infects most parts of the plant, including and trade. Some avian influenza viruses can affect humans. panicles; in particular, it causes blast on leaves and reduces yields. Crop hygiene, the use of disease-free seeds and resistant varieties are key disease management strategies. threat category: Locusts Threat name: Desert Locust likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): A swarm invasion from the Islamic Republic of Iran/Pakistan and the Horn of Africa towards Gujarat and Rajasthan could occur in June, followed by breeding. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances.

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iNdiA iRan (islaMiC RePuBliC of) threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) threat category: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): The pest is very likely to spread to forecast (april-June 2020): Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), regions other than the currently infested area. Its occurrence serotype O, outbreaks are likely to spread from infected in neighbouring countries such as Nepal and Bangladesh, countries along with the long dry spell in the current season, have been Context: FMD, serotype O, was last reported in the region favouring its rapid spread. in August 2019, in Israel. FMD is a highly contagious disease Context: The pest appeared relatively early, on 30 June 2018. among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp There are a national-level task force and a response team. drop in milk and meat production in addition to mortality in Despite the training, monitoring through pheromones and young animals. It is the most disruptive animal disease for provision of recommendations on safe chemical compounds, livestock trade. the chances of pest spread to the northern part of the country is very high. Dry environment conditions and cropping patterns favour further spread. Several research institutes threat category: Locusts (ICAR, University, NBAIR and the Indian Institute of Maize Threat name: Desert Locust and Millet Research) are also working on the pest. FAO India likelihood of occurrence: high is implementing TCP/IND/3709(E): Time-critical measures forecast (april-June 2020): Spring breeding will cause hopper to support early warning and monitoring for sustainable bands and swarms to form along the southern coast and management of Fall Armyworm in India. adjacent interior areas. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) iNdoNEsiA populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert likelihood of occurrence: high Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. are very likely to continue to occur. Context: In December 2019, ASF was confirmed in the country. In addition, in October–November 2019, several pig mortalities threat category: Forest pests and diseases were reported in the North Sumatra Province. On 25 February Threat name: Boxwood blight 2020, it was also confirmed in East Nusa Tenggara Province, in likelihood of occurrence: Moderate ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, West Timor. forecast (april-June 2020): Boxwood blight will continue to both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No be present; its spread will increase from April to June due to effective treatment nor vaccine is available. increasing temperatures and high humidity. Context: In the country, Boxwood blight was reported for threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases the first time in 2012. Currently, approximately 50 000 ha of Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) boxwood forest are affected by the disease. Pest management activities in selected areas are in progress. Boxwood blight (also likelihood of occurrence: Moderate known as box blight) is a widespread fungal disease caused by forecast (april-June 2020): H5N1 Highly pathogenic avian the pathogen Calonectria pseudonaviculata, affecting boxwood influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry may occur. trees. Context: The country is endemic for H5N1 HPAI. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans.

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iRan (islaMiC RePuBliC of) threat category: Forest pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Boxwood moth Threat name: Wheat rust likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): In Iran, the moth has three to four forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the wheat yellow rust generations per year. The larvae will have high levels of activity disease is likely, as per the seasonal pattern. from April to June. The moth’s flight season is likely to start in Context: Wheat rust diseases, particularly yellow rust, are late April/mid-May. recurrent threats to wheat. It infects especially the leaves, Context: The first introduction of Boxwood moth was reported reducing photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains in August 2016; since then, the native boxwood forests have support disease development. Regular surveys and timely been under threat. Early action, such as pheromone trapping actions are essential. for monitoring and treatment using the biopesticide Btk (Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki), is required to reduce further JaPan spread. FAO organized a visit from Georgia to the Islamic Republic of Iran to share experiences on Btk application and threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases on the use of pheromone traps. When the day length drops Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) below approximately 13.5 hours, the larvae will “diapause” likelihood of occurrence: high (enter the dormant stage of a developing insect) so that it can forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very overwinter in a web spun on Buxus leaves. In this state, it can likely to occur, through possible introduction from affected survive temperatures as low as - 30°C. Boxwood moth (Cydalima countries in the region. perspectalis), native to eastern Asia, is highly destructive and defoliates boxwood trees. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. However, it continues to occur in other Asian countries, from which it could be imported. ASF is a highly contagious viral threat category: Plant pests and diseases disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high Threat name: Wheat rust mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the wheat yellow rust JordAN disease is likely as per the seasonal pattern threat category: Plant pests and diseases Context: The disease is a recurrent threat to wheat in the Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) country. Wheat rust infects especially the leaves, reducing likelihood of occurrence: Moderate photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains support disease forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the development. Regular surveys and timely actions are essential. pest being introduced into Jordan because no neighbouring countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological irAq and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause threat category: Plant pests and diseases damage as soon as it is introduced. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory likelihood of occurrence: Moderate ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize pest being introduced into Iraq because no neighbouring and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause damage as soon as it is introduced. kAzAkhstAN Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly threat category: Locusts high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory Threat name: Italian Locust ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per likelihood of occurrence: Moderate night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching, followed by hopper and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. development, should start in late April. The scale of infestations is expected to be similar to that of 2019. Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present in Central Asia and in the country.

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kAzAkhstAN threat category: Locusts threat category: Locusts threat category: Migratory Locust Threat name: Italian Locust likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching and hopper development forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching, followed by hopper should start in May. development, should start in late April. Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present in Central Asia and in the country. in Central Asia and in the country. threat category: Locusts threat category: Locusts Threat name: Moroccan Locust Threat name: Moroccan Locust likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching should occur in April and forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching, hopper development and will be followed by hopper development. Attention should be fledging will successively occur during the forecast period. given to the southern oblasts of the country. The scale of infestations is expected to be similar to that of 2019. Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present in Central Asia and in the country. in Central Asia and in the country. kuWAit lao PeoPle’s deMoCRaTiC RePuBliC threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks pest being introduced into Kuwait because no neighbouring are very likely to continue to occur. countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Lao People’s and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause Democratic Republic (PDR) on 20 June 2019, in Salavan damage as soon as it is introduced. Province. As of 4 March 2020, Lao PDR has reported at least Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly 170 outbreaks in all 18 provinces of the country. ASF is a highly high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per which causes high mortality. To date, no effective treatment nor night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize vaccine is available. and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. threat category: Plant pests and diseases kyrgyzstAN Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease threat category: Plant pests and diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Wheat rust forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana forecast (april-June 2020): Wheat yellow rust is likely to spread fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) was recently and cause damage. reported in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium Context: The disease is a recurrent threat to wheat in the wilt disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it country. Wheat rust infects especially the leaves, reducing becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains support disease of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then development. Regular surveys and timely actions are essential. causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and water, and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial.

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lEBANoN MoNgoliA threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks pest being introduced into Lebanon because no neighbouring are very likely to continue to occur. countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological Context: In January 2019, the first outbreaks of ASF in Mongolia and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause were reported. Since then, a total of 11 ASF outbreaks have damage as soon as it is introduced. been confirmed in 7 out of 21 regions of the country. There is Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly no information concerning surveillance in wild boar, although high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory it is well known that wild boars have an extensive presence in ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per infected areas. It is unknown whether the virus is present in the night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize wild boar population in the country. On 27 March 2019, country and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. authorities declared the end of the ASF epidemic in the country. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic threat category: Forest pests and diseases and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. Threat name: Dry cone syndrome likelihood of occurrence: Moderate MyANMAr forecast (april-June 2020): Dry cone syndrome will continue in pine plantations (Pinus pinea) due to frequent rainfall from April threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases to June. Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Context: Reduction in the yield of pine nuts has been reported likelihood of occurrence: high throughout the country. Silvicultural practices to strengthen the forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks trees are in progress. are very likely to continue to occur. Context: ASF was reported for the first time on 14 August 2019 threat category: Forest pests and diseases in Myanmar. Since then, and as of 4 March 2020, a total of 6 ASF threat category: Western conifer seed bug outbreaks have been reported in Shan State and Kachin State. likelihood of occurrence: high ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment forecast (april-June 2020): Western conifer seed bug is likely nor vaccine is available. to display high levels of activity due to increasing temperatures from April to June. Oviposition on stone pines will start in late spring and the first generation will experience the larval stage threat category: Plant pests and diseases until late June to early July. Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Context: Monitoring of the pest population using traps is in likelihood of occurrence: high progress. Western conifer seed bug (Leptoglossus occidentalis) is an invasive insect pest that feeds mainly on conifer seeds. forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. The nymphs and adults spend the summer on pine trees, where Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana they use their piercing-sucking mouthparts to feed on twig and fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) was recently green pinecone sap. The adults will also eat fruits, seed pulp and reported in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium flowers. wilt disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana MAlAysiA plants of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases materials and water, and movement of infested soil particles Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The likelihood of occurrence: high disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is likely to occur through possible introduction from affected crucial. countries in the region. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. However, it continues to occur in neighbouring countries. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available.

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MyANMAr oMAN threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low likelihood of FAW forecast (april-June 2020): Oman shares a border with Yemen, threat during April and May. This likelihood will rise to moderate where the pest has been reported. The humid-hot and semi-arid in June 2020. climatic areas along the coast of the Gulf of Aden and of the Context: Fall Armyworm (FAW) was confirmed in August 2018 Arabian Sea are a highly probable route of introduction. In Myanmar. There are two main maize-growing seasons in the Context: The border between Oman and Yemen has a country, monsoon and post-monsoon. Most of the areas are continuous range of vegetation, as well as the presence of grown during the post-monsoon season, except Shan State, host plants. This may favour pest spread to farms in Dhofar where growing starts from end May-early June. Therefore, there Governorate in Oman from Al Mahrah Governorate in Yemen. is a low likelihood of FAW threats emerging during April and May The conflict in Yemen is limiting the official controls possible, because almost no maize is growing during this period. However, including the collection of accurate data on pest monitoring. there is a moderate likelihood of threats in end May-early June However, it is likely that pest prevalence will expand to the 2020. maximum natural range. nePal threat category: Locusts threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Desert Locust Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Breeding could cause hopper forecast (april-June 2020): There are very high chances of the groups, bands, adult groups and small swarms to form in the pest spreading to other provinces and districts of the country, north. as it has been favoured by rainfall patterns and monocropping Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) in the most infested area. It is therefore necessary to remain on populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, high alert. the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food Context: The pest occurred in a low-hill district on 12 August security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s 2019, in maize. Since then, it spread to other crops such as population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert sorghum, rice and other cereals. A national-level task force Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to team, including staff from the Government, FAO, the U.S. Agency swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. for International Development (USAID), non-governmental organizations and the private sector, is working on response PaKisTan to the pest. Protocol development and work on early warning, monitoring and management activities are being undertaken. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) threat category: Plant pests and diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Coffee disease forecast (april-June 2020): Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), serotype O, outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: FMD, serotype O (topotype ME-SA/Ind-2001e) has forecast (april-June 2020): Further spread of the coffee disease been reported in three provinces of Pakistan in December 2019. is likely. Emergency and preventive vaccinations were carried out. Context: Coffee crops in Gandaki Province have encountered These outbreaks raise concern because they were the first time an undiagnosed disease, with symptoms of drying and wilting that this lineage has been detected in a West Eurasian country; similar to those of the coffee wilt and rust diseases. The cause it has the potential for onward spread into countries such as Iran can be a complex of pathogens and needs to be studied further. and Turkey. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat production in addition.

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PaKisTan PHiliPPines (the) threat category: Locusts threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Desert Locust Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Spring breeding will cause hopper forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks bands and swarms to form along the southwest coast and are very likely to continue to occur. interior; a swarm invasion from the Islamic Republic of Iran and Context: ASF was reported for the first time on 9 September the Horn of Africa could occur in June, followed by summer 2019 in the Philippines. As of 4 March 2020, at least 180 ASF breeding. outbreaks have been reported in 16 out of the 81 administrative Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) divisions in the country. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to threat category: Plant pests and diseases swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Plant pests and diseases forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease Context: Tropical Race 4 (TR4) of the causal fungus is present likelihood of occurrence: Moderate in Mindanao. It is likely to spread from the plantations where it is present. Banana fusarium wilt disease is soilborne and forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. cannot be eradicated once it becomes established in the soil. Context: The new race of the fungus causing the disease The disease attacks banana plants of all ages, initially appearing (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) is present in one location in the country with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt disease is death. Infected planting materials and water, and movement of soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes established infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all ages, role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing and containment and management are challenging. Thus, wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and water, prevention of spread is crucial. and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are threat category: Plant pests and diseases challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Plant pests and diseases forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low likelihood of FAW Threat name: Wheat rust threat during April and May. This likelihood will rise to moderate in June 2020. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: The Government’s Crop Pest Management Division forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. received reports from Regional Crop Protection Center 2 Context: The disease is a recurrent threat to wheat in the (RCPC 2) on a suspected incidence of Fall Armyworm (FAW) in country. Wheat rust infects especially the leaves, reducing Piat, Cagayan. FAW damages several stages of the corn, feeding photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains support disease on the corn from seedling stage up to maturity stage. development. Regular surveys and timely actions are essential. The damages reported are the following: cuttings (chewed stems) of seedlings at ground level; defoliating of corn leaves at whorl stage through feeding; feeding and damage on the corn tassel; feeding and burrowing in the corn ear cobs, causing damage to the grains that can lead to rot.

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PHiliPPines (the) sAudi ArABiA threat category: Aquatic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): During the forecast period, the forecast (april-June 2020): Saudi Arabia shares an extensive production cycle of tilapia will be active. border with Yemen, where the pest has been reported. The Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between climatic region and the presence of host plants favour pest 22°C and 32°C. It has also been observed in farms with spread to farms in Saudi Arabia. large-sized fish and a high stocking density. TiLV is already present Context: The pest has been reported in Yemen, a neighbouring in the country. It was first observed in May 2017. Monitoring and country. The pest is likely to spread from Yemen to Saudi Arabia active surveillance systems have been established. (in particular, the Jazan, Najran and Asir regions). Hot, humid and semi-arid climatic regions form a continuous range between qAtAr Yemen and Saudi Arabia, with an abundance of host plants on both sides. This increases the likelihood of pest introduction. threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) threat category: Locusts likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Desert Locust forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the pest being introduced into Qatar because no neighbouring likelihood of occurrence: high countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological forecast (april-June 2020): Breeding may cause hopper groups, and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause bands, adult groups and small swarms to form in the northern damage as soon as it is introduced. interior areas of the country. This could be supplemented by Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly additional locusts coming from Yemen. high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert RePuBliC of KoRea Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) syRian aRaB RePuBliC likelihood of occurrence: high threat category: Plant pests and diseases forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) are very likely to continue to occur. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: On 17 September 2019, ASF was reported for the first time in the Republic of Korea, near the North Korean border. forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the A total of 14 ASF events were confirmed in domestic pigs until pest being introduced into Syria because no neighbouring 9 October 2019, affecting four administrative divisions in the countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological country. As of 4 March 2020, 298 dead wild boar has found and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause infected with ASF in two provinces of the country. ASF is a damage as soon as it is introduced. contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, that Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory currently available. ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize and other crops, especially for small holder farmers.

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tAJikistAN tiMor lEstE threat category: Locusts threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Moroccan Locust Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching, hopper development and forecast (april-June 2020): The chance of pest spread is very fledging will successively occur during the forecast period. high, as the country has reported its presence along the border The scale of infestations is expected to be lower than that of 2018. with Australia. Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants Context: FAW appeared in the country in early February 2020. in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, Approval of financing for SFERA funds and training planned for jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural mid-March is pending. Approval of SFERA request is also pending. populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present in Central Asia and in the country. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases thAilANd Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks likelihood of occurrence: high are very likely to continue to occur. forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Timor-Leste on likely to occur, through possible introduction from affected 27 September 2019, with a total of 100 outbreaks in smallholder countries in the region. pig farms in the capital city, Dili. Additional ASF outbreaks have Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. been reported in the districts of Baucau, Covalima, Ermera, However, it continues to occur in neighbouring countries. Lautein, Liquiça, Maliana, Mantutu, Manufahi, and Viqueque. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic More than 1 600 pigs have died as a result of ASF spread. and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic nor vaccine is available. and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available.

threat category: Aquatic diseases turkEy Threat name: Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) forecast (april-June 2020): During the forecast period, the production cycle of tilapia will be active. Additionally, the likelihood of occurrence: Moderate permissive temperature range for TiLV outbreaks will be present. forecast (april-June 2020): Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), Context: TiLV occurs when the water temperature is between serotype O, outbreaks are likely to spread from infected 22°C and 32°C; it has also been observed in farms with countries. large-sized fish and a high stocking density. TiLV is already Context: FMD, serotype O, was last reported in the region in present in the country. Monitoring and active surveillance August 2019, in Israel. The last occurrence in the West Bank systems have been established. was recorded in April 2019; however, the serotype was not noted. FMD is a highly contagious disease among cattle, buffalo, sheep and pigs that can cause a sharp drop in milk and meat threat category: Plant pests and diseases production in addition to mortality in young animals. It is the Threat name: Banana fusarium wilt disease most restrictive animal disease for livestock trade. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Further spread of the disease is likely. Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) was recently reported in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and water, and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial.

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turkEy uNitEd ArAB EMirAtEs threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases threat category: Banana fusarium wilt disease Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the Context: Tropical Race 4 (TR4) of the causal fungus has recently pest being introduced into the UAE because no neighbouring been reported in the protected production areas on the countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological southern coast of the country. Spread of the fungus from the and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause initial areas where it was reported is likely. Banana fusarium wilt damage as soon as it is introduced. disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize water, and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are uzBEkistAN challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial. threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Wheat rust threat category: Plant pests and diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Threat name: Wheat rust forecast (april-June 2020): Wheat yellow rust is likely to spread Moderate likelihood of occurrence: and cause damage. forecast (april-June 2020): Wheat yellow rust is likely to spread Context: The disease is a recurrent threat to wheat in the and cause damage. country. Wheat rust infects especially the leaves, reducing Context: Wheat rust diseases, particularly yellow rust, are photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains support disease recurrent threats to wheat. It infects especially the leaves, development. Regular surveys and timely actions are essential. reducing photosynthesis and grain weight. Excessive rains support disease development. Regular surveys and timely actions are essential. threat category: Locusts Threat name: Italian Locust turkMENistAN likelihood of occurrence: Moderate threat category: Locusts forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching, followed by hopper Threat name: Moroccan Locust development, should start in April. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, forecast (april-June 2020): Hopper development and fledging jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural should occur in April and some adult groups may form in May. populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present The scale of infestations is expected to be similar to that of in Central Asia and in the country. 2019.

Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, threat category: Locusts jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural Threat name: Migratory Locust populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present likelihood of occurrence: Moderate in Central Asia and in the country. forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching and hopper development should start in May in the Aral Sea area, in the western part of the country. Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present in Central Asia and in the country.

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uzBEkistAN WEst BANk threat category: Locusts threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: Moroccan Locust Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching, hopper development and forecast (april-June 2020): There is a low probability of the pest fledging will successively occur during the forecast period. being introduced into the West Bank because no neighbouring The scale of infestations is expected to be higher than that of 2019. countries have reported it. The pest has particular biological Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants and behavioural characteristics that allow it to spread and cause in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, damage as soon as it is introduced. jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory in Central Asia and in the country. ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize ViEt NAM and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) yEMEN likelihood of occurrence: high threat category: Plant pests and diseases forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) are very likely to continue to occur. likelihood of occurrence: high Context: ASF was reported for the first time in Viet Nam in forecast (april-June 2020): The pest was officially reported in February 2019, in domestic pigs. As of 4 March 2020, the disease Yemen in 2018, and has spread to all locations with suitable continues to occur in the country. ASF is a highly contagious hosts and favourable climatic conditions. The pest can attack viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which cause high more than 100 plant species. However, it can cause significant mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. losses particularly in maize and sorghum crops. Yemen cultivates more than 400 000 ha of sorghum every year. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Context: The pest has a wide host range, but causes particularly Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) high damage to maize and sorghum crops. The high migratory likelihood of occurrence: Moderate ability of the pest allows the adult moth to fly over 100 km per forecast (april-June 2020): H5 Highly pathogenic avian influenza night. The pest’s behaviour threatens the cultivation of maize (HPAI) outbreaks are likely to occur. and other crops, especially for small holder farmers. Context: H5N1 and H5N6 HPAI outbreaks were reported in the country in 2017. A new reassortant strain of H5N6 HPAI has been threat category: Locusts circulating in the region (Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan, Threat name: Desert Locust Province of China) since November 2017. The last occurrences of high this strain in the country were in February 2020. HPAI is a highly likelihood of occurrence: contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in forecast (april-June 2020): Breeding will occur in coastal and severe production losses that have an impact on food security and interior areas, causing locusts to increase and form groups, trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. bands and small swarms. Context: Numerous Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria) threat category: Plant pests and diseases populations are a threat to agricultural production in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and have a negative impact on food threat category: Banana fusarium wilt disease security. The livelihoods of at least one tenth of the world’s likelihood of occurrence: Moderate population may be affected by this voracious insect. Desert forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely Locusts are potentially the most dangerous locust pests due to Context: The most recent race of fungus causing the Banana swarms’ ability to fly quickly over long distances. fusarium wilt disease (Tropical Race 4 – TR4) was recently reported in the country and can spread further. Banana fusarium wilt disease is soilborne and cannot be eradicated once it becomes established in the soil. The disease attacks banana plants of all ages, initially appearing with a yellowing of the leaves, then causing wilting and plant death. Infected planting materials and water, and movement of infested soil particles with shoes, tools and vehicles play a major role in spread. The disease can remain viable in soil for decades and containment and management are challenging. Thus, prevention of spread is crucial.

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euRoPe

AlBANiA BElArus threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks might occur as the disease is present in the region. are likely to occur. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, Context: ASF was last officially reported in the country in 2013. ASF was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia and in February ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic 2020 in Greece, thus increasing the risk for the region. ASF is a and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: Bark beetles threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) forecast (april-June 2020): Bark beetles (mainly Ips spp.) may likelihood of occurrence: Moderate have up to three generations per year in the warmer sites of forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur Europe. From mid-April, bark beetles start to fly and may infest because the weather conditions during the forecast period are weakened trees. favourable to the vectors. Context: Bark beetles are causing severe damage in pine Context: Observed for the first time in June 2016, LSD has plantations in Belarus. Sanitary felling and other silvicultural caused almost 850 outbreaks, affecting 32 counties. Throughout practices are in progress to reduce the insect populations. 2017, outbreaks continued to be detected but were not officially The adults and larvae of Ips spp. are bark-feeding, mainly reported. An emergency vaccination campaign has been attacking declining trees and freshly cut wood. Outbreaks can implemented, and regular vaccination campaigns are carried cause heavy tree losses and have a significant economic impact out. LSD is a severe disease transmitted by vectors which affects on plantations. mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses. BElgiuM threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Forest pests and diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: Pine processionary moth likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): Pupation processions occur in early are likely to continue to occur. spring and pupate in the soil. The emergence of the adult moth Context: In September 2018, dead wild boars in Luxembourg occurs from early June. Province were found positive to ASF. As of February 2020, a Context: The life cycle of the pine processionary moth is total of 831 wild boars were found to be infected in Luxembourg typically annual but may extend over two years at high altitudes. Province alone. The most recent findings occurred in August Mechanical removal of nests is in progress, to manage pest 2019. Wild boar population density is the most important factor populations. in the spread of the disease. The disease may become endemic only in wild boar, even in the absence of pigs. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available.

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BosNiA ANd hErzEgoViNA CroAtiA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to occur through possible virus introduction from are likely to occur through possible virus introduction from neighbouring countries. neighbouring countries. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, ASF was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia and in February ASF was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia and in February 2020 in Greece, thus increasing the risk for the region. ASF is a 2020 in Greece, thus increasing the risk for the region. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available.

BulgAriA CzEChiA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. are likely to occur, through possible introduction from Context: ASF was first reported in the country in August 2018. neighbouring countries. Since then, additional events have been reported in wild boar Context: ASF was first reported in the country in July 2017. (most recently, February 2020). ASF is a highly contagious viral In February 2019, Czechia was the first country in the EU to be disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high officially declared free from ASF after it had been infected in mortality. No vaccines are available. previous years. As no outbreak has been found in Czechia since April 2018, the country received the support of the EU Member States in lifting all restrictions in the country. ASF is a highly threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases because the weather conditions during the forecast period are Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) favourable for the vectors. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate Context: The last reported outbreak of LSD in Bulgaria was in 2016. No new outbreaks were observed after these events, but forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian the disease may spread from neighbouring affected countries. influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. Regular vaccination campaigns are carried out. LSD is a severe Context: The H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) disease transmitted by vectors which affects mainly cattle, subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In late December causing important meat and milk production losses. 2019, a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. To date, the disease has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight European countries, including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite increasing Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) temperatures, additional outbreaks may still be observed during likelihood of occurrence: Moderate the forecast period. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. Context: The country is endemic for H5N1 HPAI. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans.

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EstoNiA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. are likely to continue to occur. Context: The H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) Since the first introduction of ASF into the country in Context: subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In late December September 2014, the disease continued to be regularly reported 2019, a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. To date, the in wild and domestic pigs. The disease is considered endemic in disease has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight European the country and disease reports are provided only on a countries including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, six-monthly basis. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite increasing swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. temperatures, additional outbreaks may be observed during No vaccines are available. the forecast period. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses FrANCE that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases viruses can affect humans. Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high grEECE forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases are likely to occur, through possible introduction from Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) neighbouring countries. likelihood of occurrence: high Context: In September 2018, two dead wild boars were found forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks positive to ASF in Étalle (Luxembourg Province), where the are likely to continue to occur. disease continued to be reported until August 2019. Context: ASF was officially reported for the first time in the This represented the first introduction of the disease into country in February 2020, in domestic pigs. ASF is a highly Western Europe of genotype 2 during the current epidemic. contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which Wild boar population density is the most important factor in causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. the spread of the disease in the country. ASF is most likely to persist and become endemic due to the presence of wild boar populations. In particular, the French territory close to infected threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases areas in Belgium presents a high density of wild boars. ASF is a Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, likelihood of occurrence: Moderate which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur because the weather conditions during the forecast period are gErMANy favourable for the vectors. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Context: The last observed outbreaks of LSD in Greece were in Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) February 2017, in Kerkyra, an Ionian island, and in August 2017, likelihood of occurrence: high in Thessalia Region. No new outbreaks have been observed after these events. An emergency vaccination campaign has been forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks implemented, and regular vaccination campaigns are carried out. are likely to occur through possible introduction from LSD is a severe disease transmitted by vectors which affects mainly neighbouring countries. cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses. Context: In September 2018, two dead wild boars were found positive to ASF in Étalle (Luxembourg Province), where the huNgAry disease continued to be reported until August 2019. This threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases represented the first introduction of the disease into Western Europe of genotype 2 during the current epidemic. Wild boar Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) population density is the most important factor in the spread likelihood of occurrence: high of the disease in the country. ASF is most likely to persist and forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks become endemic due to the presence of wild boar populations. are likely to continue to occur. In particular, the French territory close to infected areas in Context: ASF was officially reported for the first time in the country Belgium presents a high density of wild boars. ASF is a highly in April 2018, in wild boar. The disease continues to be reported. contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available.

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huNgAry lAtViA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. are likely to continue to occur. Context: The H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) Context: ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In late December 2019, in wild and domestic pigs. The disease continues to be reported. a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. To date, the disease ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight European countries and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite increasing temperatures, additional outbreaks may be observed during the forecast period. HPAI is lithuANiA a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases resulting in severe production losses that have an impact on food Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. likelihood of occurrence: high itAly forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. threat category: Plant pests and diseases Since the first ASF introduction in the country in Threat name: Xylella fastidiosa Context: January 2014, the disease continued to be regularly reported Moderate likelihood of occurrence: in wild and domestic pigs. The disease is considered endemic forecast (april-June 2020): Spread of the disease is likely. in the country and disease reports are provided only on a six- Context: Olive decline caused by Xylella fastidiosa has caused monthly basis. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, significant damage to olives in the Puglia Region. The bacterium both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. is transmitted by insects. Immediate eradication and quarantine No vaccines are available. practices are critical to prevent spread. luxEMBourg kosoVo threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): are likely to occur through possible virus introduction from are likely to occur, through possible virus introduction from neighbouring countries. neighbouring countries. Context: In September 2018, two dead wild boars were found Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, positive to ASF in Étalle (Luxembourg Province), where the ASF was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia and in February disease continued to be reported until August 2019. 2020 in Greece, thus increasing the risk for the region. ASF is a This represented the first introduction of the disease into highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, Western Europe of genotype 2 during the current epidemic. which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. Wild boar population density is the most important factor in the spread of the disease in the country. ASF is most likely to threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases persist and become endemic due to the presence of wild boar Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) populations. In particular, the French territory close to infected ASF is a likelihood of occurrence: Moderate areas in Belgium presents a high density of wild boars. highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. because the weather conditions during the forecast period are favourable for the vectors. Context: In June 2016, LSD was first observed in a backyard farm in Pcinja District, in neighbouring Serbia. Since then, 223 outbreaks have been officially reported, the last of which was observed in October 2016. An emergency vaccination campaign has been implemented. LSD is a severe disease transmitted by vectors which affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses.

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MoNtENEgro Poland threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to occur, through possible virus introduction from are likely to continue to occur. neighbouring countries. Context: ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, in wild and domestic pigs. The disease continues to be reported. ASF was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia and in February ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic 2020 in Greece, thus increasing the risk for the region. ASF is a and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur because the weather conditions during the forecast period are Context: The H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) favourable for the vectors. subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In late December 2019, Context: The disease was first observed in April 2016. Since a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. To date, then, LSD has spread throughout the country, causing at least the disease has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight 60 outbreaks in seven municipalities. The last observed outbreak European countries including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, occurred in October 2017. An emergency vaccination campaign has Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite been implemented, and regular vaccination campaigns are carried increasing temperatures, additional outbreaks may be observed out. LSD is a severe disease transmitted by vectors which affects during the forecast period. HPAI is a highly contagious disease mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses. causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian North MACEdoNiA influenza viruses can affect humans. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases RePuBliC of MoldoVa threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: Moderate African swine fever (ASF) forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur Threat name: because the weather conditions during the forecast period are likelihood of occurrence: high favourable for the vectors. forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks Context: Observed for the first time in July 2016, LSD caused are likely to continue to occur. almost 170 outbreaks, affecting 21 municipalities. After the Context: Since ASF was first introduced into the country in outbreak in September 2016, two outbreaks were observed November 2016, the disease continues to be reported. ASF is a in northern municipalities of the country in February and highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, April 2017. No new outbreaks were observed after those events. which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. An emergency vaccination campaign has been implemented, and regular vaccination campaigns are carried out. LSD is a roMANiA severe disease transmitted by vectors which affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks likelihood of occurrence: high are likely to continue to occur. forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks Context: Since ASF was first introduced into the country in July are likely to occur, through possible virus introduction from 2017, ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country in neighbouring countries. wild and domestic pigs. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease Context: ASF has not been reported in the country. However, of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. ASF was confirmed in August 2019 in Serbia and in February No vaccines are available. 2020 in Greece, thus increasing the risk for the region. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available.

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roMANiA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Locusts Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Threat name: Italian Locust likelihood of occurrence: Moderate likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching and hopper development influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. should start in May. The scale of infestations is expected to be Context: The H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) higher than that of 2019. subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In late December 2019, Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. To date, the disease in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight European countries jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite increasing temperatures, additional in Central Asia and in the country. outbreaks may be observed during the forecast period. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses that have an impact on food threat category: Locusts security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. Threat name: Moroccan Locust likelihood of occurrence: Moderate russiAN FEdErAtioN (the) forecast (april-June 2020): Hatching should occur in May and threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases will be followed by hopper development. threat category: African swine fever (ASF) Context: Locust pests attack a wide range of cultivated plants likelihood of occurrence: high in Caucasus and Central Asia and can cause severe damage, forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks jeopardizing the food security and livelihoods of the rural are likely to continue to occur. populations. This species is one of the three locust pests present Context: ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country in in Central Asia and in the country. wild and domestic pigs. The last events occurred in February 2020. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and sErBiA wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks likelihood of occurrence: Moderate are likely to continue to occur. forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur Context: ASF was first confirmed in domestic pigs, close to the because the weather conditions during the forecast period are capital Belgrade, in August 2019. The disease continues to be favourable for the vectors. reported. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both Context: After its re-emergence in May 2016 in the country, domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are LSD has spread north-, east- and westwards, affecting 20 available. administrative subjects and causing almost 500 outbreaks. Several outbreaks were reported in July and August 2018. threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases The most recent events were reported in October 2019. LSD is Threat name: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) a severe disease, transmitted by vectors which affects mainly cattle, causing important meat and milk production losses. likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): LSD outbreaks are likely to occur because the weather conditions during the forecast period are threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases favourable for the vectors. Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) Context: In June 2016, LSD was first observed in a backyard farm likelihood of occurrence: Moderate in Pcinja District. Since then, 223 outbreaks have been officially forecast (april-June 2020): H5 Highly pathogenic avian influenza reported in 12 districts. The last observed outbreak occurred in (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. October 2016; since then, no new outbreaks have been reported. Context: H5 HPAI events may occur in the country, despite An emergency vaccination campaign has been implemented, and increasing temperatures, and additional outbreaks may be regular vaccination campaigns are carried out. LSD is a severe observed during the forecast period. HPAI is a highly contagious disease transmitted by vectors which affects mainly cattle, causing disease causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe important meat and milk production losses. production losses that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans.

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sloVAkiA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) threat category: Avian influenza (AI) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: Moderate forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian are likely to continue to occur. influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. Context: ASF was first confirmed in the country on 23 July 2019. Context: The H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) Since then, ASF has been reported both in wild and domestic subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In late December 2019, pigs in Kosice Region (most recently in October 2019). ASF is a a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. To date, highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, the disease has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available. European countries including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite increasing temperatures, additional outbreaks may be observed threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases during the forecast period. HPAI is a highly contagious disease Threat name: Avian influenza (AI) causing high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production likelihood of occurrence: Moderate losses that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza viruses can affect humans. forecast (april-June 2020): H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry or wild birds may occur. Context: The H5N8 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) threat category: Forest pests and diseases subtype continues to circulate in Europe. In late December Threat name: Bark beetles 2019, a new H5N8 HPAI epizootic started in Europe. To date, the likelihood of occurrence: high disease has affected mainly domestic poultry in eight European countries including Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, forecast (april-June 2020): Bark beetles (mainly Ips spp.) may Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Despite increasing have up to three generations per year in the warmer sites of temperatures, additional outbreaks may be observed during Europe. The flight of the first generation is likely to start in the forecast period. HPAI is a highly contagious disease causing May/June. From mid-April, bark beetles start to fly and may high mortality in poultry, resulting in severe production losses infest weakened trees. that have an impact on food security and trade. Avian influenza Context: Bark beetles cause severe damage in pine plantations. viruses can affect humans. Sanitary felling and other silvicultural practices are in progress to reduce the insect populations. The adults and larvae of Ips spp. are bark-feeding, mainly attacking declining trees and freshly ukrAiNE cut wood. Outbreaks can cause heavy tree losses and have a threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases significant economic impact on plantations. Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are likely to continue to occur. Context: ASF continues to be regularly reported in the country in wild and domestic pigs. The last events occurred in January 2020. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No vaccines are available.

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oCEANiA

AMEriCAN sAMoA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Plant pests and diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) Threat name: Fall armyworm (FAW) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very forecast (april-June 2020): FAW was first detected on two likely to spread from affected countries. islands in the Torres Strait, before reaching the mainland, where Context: ASF was reported for the first time at the end of it was found in Bamaga. It is expected to continue spreading September in Timor-Leste and in December 2019 in Indonesia. up towards the northern regions and could attack sugar cane. In February 2020, ASF was reported in East Nusa Tenggara Georgetown is the latest location to be affected by the invasive Province, in Timor island, Indonesia. Because of the value-chain FAW pest. links of swine and their products among the countries in the Context: Fall armyworm (FAW) was detected in pest-specific region (for example through associated routes (TARs), illegal traps on the islands of Saibai and Erub in Torres Strait, Australia, imports of food, movement of people), there is a high risk of in late January 2020, as reported by the IPPC Contact Point on the disease spreading towards the Pacific Islands and Australia. 7 February 2020. The specimens were confirmed to be FAW by Further spread of ASF within the region would have devastating means of morphological and molecular diagnostics. consequences for animal health, food safety and food security, There is no evidence of an established FAW population in Torres. especially in those countries where biosecurity in pig farming Surveillance and trapping is under way to delimit risk of FAW is low, and compensation to farmers for depopulation of pigs is spread. Regulatory measures are in place to contain the pest, questionable. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, including the Biosecurity Act 2015. FAW has not been detected both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. on mainland Australia. Commercial crops in North Queensland No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. and mainland Australia are grown a significant distance from the detection sites. AustrAliA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases FiJi threat category: African swine fever (ASF) threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases likelihood of occurrence: high Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very likelihood of occurrence: high likely to spread from affected countries. forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. likely to spread from affected countries. However, a risk of ASF spread in Oceania from Asian or European Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from However, a risk of ASF spread in Oceania from Asian or European moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak border raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak border in the Americas must also be noted. ASF is a highly contagious inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes in the Americas must also be noted. ASF is a highly contagious high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available.

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NEW CAlEdoNiA soloMoN islANds threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: African swine fever (ASF) threat category: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very likely to spread from affected countries. likely to spread from affected countries. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. However, a risk of ASF spread in Oceania from Asian or European However, a risk of ASF spread in Oceania from Asian or European infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak border progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak border inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries in the Americas must also be noted. ASF is a highly contagious in the Americas must also be noted. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available.

PaPua neW guinea VANuAtu threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) threat category: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very likely to spread from affected countries. likely to spread from affected countries. Context: ASF was never reported in the country so far, but a Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. risk of ASF spread in Oceania from Asian or European infected However, a risk of ASF spread in Oceania from Asian or European countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from moderate infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from to high, the ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad ranges of moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives in the ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives environment and pork products (and can remain viable in raw in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the quite weak border progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak border inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries in Americas has to be noted. ASF is a highly contagious viral in the Americas must also be noted. ASF is a highly contagious disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available. sAMoA threat category: Animal and zoonotic diseases Threat name: African swine fever (ASF) likelihood of occurrence: high forecast (april-June 2020): African swine fever (ASF) is very likely to spread from affected countries. Context: ASF has not been reported in the country to date. However, a risk of ASF spread in Oceania from Asian or European infected countries cannot be excluded. The level of risk is from moderate to high. The ASF virus is extremely resistant to broad ranges of temperatures and pH (acidic or basic), and it survives in the environment and pork products (and can remain viable in raw pork or cured meats for several months). In addition to the progressive spread of the virus in Asia, the rather weak border inspection, surveillance and control capacities in some countries in the Americas must also be noted. ASF is a highly contagious viral disease of swine, both domestic and wild, which causes high mortality. No effective treatment nor vaccine is available.

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glossAry

FCC threat Food chain crisis (FCC) threats are transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases, including forest pests and aquatic diseases, and food safety threats, that can affect any step of the food chain, with a potential high impact on food and nutrition security. FCC threats may reach epidemic proportions by spreading within a country and to a number of countries, necessitating control/management cooperation between several countries.

forecasting Ability to predict future condition or occurrence of an FCC threat for the upcoming three months.

likelihood of introduction Chances of introduction of an FCC threat into a country, across border or to a specific area for the upcoming three months.

likelihood of occurrence Chances of an FCC threat to happen for the upcoming three months.

likelihood of spread Chances of geographical spread of an FCC threat within a country beyond its original introduction for the upcoming three months.

likelihood of Chances of re-emergence/amplification (increase, breeding, etc.) of a threat re-emergence/amplification already existing within a country for the upcoming three months.

Biosecurity All the cumulative measures that can or should be taken to keep disease (viruses, bacteria, fungi, protozoa, parasites) from a farm and to prevent the transmission of disease (by humans, insects, rodents and wild birds and animals) within an infected farm to a neighbouring farm (FAOTERM).

incursion An isolated population of a pest recently detected in an area, not known to be established, but expected to survive for the immediate future (FAOTERM).

outbreak A recently detected pest population, including an incursion, or a sudden significant increase of an established pest population in an area (FAOTERM).

zoonosis Any disease or infection which is naturally transmissible from animals to humans (FAOTERM).

65 Food ChAiN Crisis EArly WArNiNg BullEtiN april–June 2020 no. 35 iNForMAtioN sourCEs trANsBouNdAry ANiMAl ANd AquAtiC disEAsEs African swine fever risk assessment available at: http://www.fao.org/3/i8805en/I8805EN.pdf Avian influenza - Risk assessment: http://www.fao.org/3/i8705en/I8705EN.PDF - EMPRES - I: http://empres-i.fao.org/eipws3g/ - OIE/FAO Network of Expertise on animal influenzas (OFFLU):www.offlu.net ECDC - Communicable disease threats report (CDTR) available at: https://ecdc.europa.eu/en/threats-and-outbreaks FMD Situation Reports available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/commissions/eufmd/commissions/eufmd-home/fmd-surveillance/situation-reports/en/ Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES-i) available at: http://empres-i.fao.org/eipws3g/ Global Early Warning System (GLEWS) at FAO OIE World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID) Interface available at: http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Wahidhome/Home Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) disease card available at: http://www.oie.int/fileadmin/Home/eng/Internationa_Standard_Setting/docs/pdf/A_TiLV_disease_card.pdf dEsErt loCust FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) available at: www.fao.org/ag/locusts Locusts (three species) in Caucasus and Central Asia Regional monthly bulletins on locust situations in CCA available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts-CCA/en/1014/index.html Reports of the annual Technical Workshop on Locusts in CCA available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts-CCA/en/index.html

FAll ArMyWorM http://www.fao.org/food-chain-crisis/how-we-work/plant-protection/fallarmyworm/en/ WhEAt rust disEAsE Global wheat rust monitoring system

WEAthEr ForECAst https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ http://www.noaa.gov/weather thrEAts to Food sECurity FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation – Quarterly Global Report – No.1, March 2020 glossAry FAO Term portal: http://www.fao.org/faoterm/en/ IPPC Glossary: https://www.ippc.int/en/publications/glossary-phytosanitary-terms/ FAO Food Safety and Quality website - A-Z index: http://www.fao.org/food/food-safety-quality/a-z-index/ biosecurity/en/ ACAPS: https://www.acaps.org/

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