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Tflllllll:. Journal O(Coastal Research, 18(3), 5~N-554

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Tflllllll:. Journal O(Coastal Research, 18(3), 5~N-554 Journal of Coastal Research 537-554 West Palm Beach, Florida Summer 2002 Recent Evolution of Surge-related Events in the Northern Adriatic Areal Paolo Antonio Pirazzoli] and Alberto Tomasinj i"CNRS-Laboratoire de tCNR Geographic Physique Istituto per 10 Studio della 1 Place Aristide Briand Dinamica delle Grandi 92195-Meudon, France Masse [email protected] Venezia and Universita di Venezia Venezia, Italy [email protected] ABSTRACT_••••••••••••••••••••••••••••_ PIRAZZOLI, P.A., and TOMASIN, A., 2002. Recent evolution of surge-related events in the Northern Adriatic area. ,tflllllll:. Journal o(Coastal Research, 18(3), 5~n-554. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. ~ The recent increase in the frequency of coastal flooding in Venice mainly depends on loss ofland elevation (subsidence euus~ :....I and eustasy) and man-induced hydrodynamic changes in the lagoon area, but can also be strengthened in the near ---=-=-­&--*" future by changes in climate. _+ In this paper, after a short review of recent changes in the relative mean and maximal levels of the sea and their causes, the main meteorological factors (atmospheric pressure and winds of sirocco and bora), which produce sea surges in the Gulf of Venice, are identified statistically. The recent evolution of these meteorological factors in the Adriatic area shows some favorable trends (the atmospheric pressure is increasing, thus provisionally masking eu­ static sea-level rise, and bora is sharply lessening). However, the effects of sirocco, which is increasing in frequency in the mid-Adriatic, seem to be prevailing. On the whole, the frequency of sea surges 2:5 em to 2:30 em, which are the most frequent, is increasing in the North Adriatic and this implies more "moderately high tide levels", which are however liable to flood the lowest parts of the city of Venice. Such increase in frequency seems related to recent climatic changes (possibly related to global warming) and may therefore be expected to worsen in the near future. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Lagoon hydrodynamics, flooding, surges, global warming. INTRODUCTION CHANGES IN LAND ELEVATION AND IN LAGOON HYDRODYNAMICS Flooding by sea surges (locally called "acqua alta", literally "high water") is a frequent phenomenon along the low coastal In the city of Venice the ground level is today very close to areas of the northern Adriatic. In lagoon areas, coastal flood­ sea level. Compared to the astronomical tidal range, that may ing is known to have occurred occasionally at least since the reach about one meter at spring tide, and to storm surges, descriptions by Cassiodorus (6th c. ADl, but in the city of which exceed a height of one meter once every five years on Venice the phenomenon has much worsened during the 20th average, the lowest point of the city (in St. Mark's Square, century. The worsening can be ascribed to the superposition just outside the basilica) is now only 40 cm above the present of several causes: lowering of the elevation of the land in re­ MSL (which is today about 23 cm above the local Datum). lation to the sea (BONDESAN et al., 1995); changes in the prop­ This means that all surges in the Adriatic, even moderate, agation ofthe sea (tide and surges) inside lagoon basins (PTR­ may produce some flooding. At street level, about :~O(Yr· of the AZZOLl, 1987, 1991); and possible changes in the climatic fac­ city is lower than the elevation of 120 ern (above Datum), tors which tend to produce surge events. In this paper, after which is reached by sea level (tide plus surge) 1.3 times per a briefsummary on some factors which have affected the land year on average. This makes that each centimeter of eleva­ elevation and the lagoon hydrodynamics, a statistical study tion is precious. All the events with tide level 2:110 cm are is presented of hourly surges (differences between the ob­ officially considered "acqua alta". served tide and the astronomical tide at the same moment) Regular tide-gauge records are available in Venice since and of the recent evolution of the meteorological factors 1872 (DoRIGo, 1961; PIRAZZOLI, 1982) and in Trieste (at the which contribute to surge development and to "acqua alta" northern end of the Adriatic, Figure 1) since 1890 (MOSETTJ, occurrences. 1961). In Figure 2 the MSL evolution in the two stations is compared. A 19-year running mean has been used to filter the effects of the astronomical cycles of lunar declination 01072 received 1 July 2001; accepted in revision .5 February 2002. I Invited paper presented orally at the AGU 2001 Spring Meeting, (18.6 years), Saros (18 years and 11 days) and Meton (about Boston, Ma., USA. 19 years). It can be observed that the 19-yr curves of Venice Pirazzoli and Tn mu siu o 75 150 km I I I Figun ' I . l.oca t iun map of' t ill' an':1 st udi erl . For mu rr- dt't ail :-: 0 11 ti ll' Ve-n ice Lagoon, :-'('P Fi gu n' ·t, a nd 'I'riestu a re a lmost parall el unti l th e firs t hal f of t he a lso been observed t hut during th e lust three decad es MSL I92()'; and th en aga in from t he second half ofthe 19(iO,;. Th e rem a in ed on avera ge ulmost. stuhle in both Triest e a nd Ven ­ difference in level th a t gra dua lly incr eases between Tri este ice, Thi s is in contrast not on ly with th e gradual sen-level a nd Veni ce, reaching about 10 em in th e la te 1960 s, is as­ rise of th e preceding decad es. but a lso with th e pres en t ly ex­ cribod mo,;t ly to la nd subs ide nce in th e Ven ice a rea , ca used pect ed globa l sea- Ieve ] rise. by r-xccs si v« pumping of g round wa te r, es pecia lly in th e in­ Th e recent a ppa re nt seu-Iovcl stubility at T ri este a nd du st ria l zuno of IV1a rghera ( C,\HB( )( ;" IN l'! (/1.. 1976 1, Signifi­ Ven ice may be s hort-livcd how ev er. T SI ~II' I. I S a nd B..\ KEH ca nt la nd si nkim; ph enomen a. due to methane ext ract ion . oc­ 1:2 00()I ha ve s uggested th at a recent sea-Icve l decr ea se in cur in ot he r coustul areas of' t hc nort.h crn Adriatic (Bi\lll'! (/1.. Mediterranean sta t inn s may be th e result of in cr ea ses in 2()OOI. rc- sultiru; in extensive lowla nds below lVISL ( B ONIlES,\N t e m pe ra t ure a nd sa lin ity of Moditorru ncnn Deep Water. l'! «t.. 199il I. How e ver, s ince th e no rt he rn Adriatic Sea is not deep I less From th e tidl'-gauge record s of th e period 1872- 2000. it t ha n fiO m : other ca uses for t ill' recent interruption in th e a ppea r,; th at tlu. tota l 10';'; in eleva tion of Venic e has been sea-Ievel ri ,;t, s hou ld be a d voca te d. It wi ll be shown below ab ou t :2 il em from 1HH1 to 1991 (wit h a mean running over (Fig ure 1:2 ) th at th ere hus been in th e Adriatic a rea an l~) yea r,;. th e first a nd th e last 9 yea rs of t he series a rc lost inc rea se in th e a ve rage su rfa ce uu nosphuric pressure of in a vera ging opernt ions r, of wh ich about 10 ern ca n be as­ a bo ut 2 h Pa during th e second part of the 20th century cri hcd to man -induced la nd subsidence a nd a bout I f) em (a t a nd that most of this i ncrcuse occu rred since t he 19605. Veni ce an d Tri esu» to eus tasy a nd regional tectonics, It has The hyd rosta ti c effect of s uch a n in crea se in pressure wa s .Iou rn ul of Coast ul Ik sl'ar l'h. Vol. IH. "'0,:l. ~() () ~ Surg'p Evolution in t.hc- Adriatic MSL at Venice (1872-2000) compared to MSL at Trieste (1890-2000) 30 , E 25 " " ~ E ,- " ..::J 20 ltl 'tl Ql ,-10 em o 'c 15 Ql "" > ,,' ... , r-­ 24,7 em 0) 10 • ',i " ....CIO ,IY ' Ql , ' .c:.. 5 '~', Ql o> .c , "'~':Y~'I ..ltl o ~.. .. , s: ;. Cl .. "Qj :I: -5 -10 " Time (years) Annual MSL at Venice -19-yr running mean of MSL at Venice -19-yr running mean of MSL at Trieste Figur« 2, MSL variations at Venice (thick lin« I,ll' the IH-yr running mean i and at Trn-stc-. The Trieste curve has be('n re-porte-d twice: close to till' oldor part of the Venice curve. at t.h« sanl(' scale. and displaced by about 10 em. in order to 1)(' closer to Ow most rece-nt part of tho Vr-nicc- curve. to depress sea level about 2 cm , thus explaining the recent They are here updated and corrected fill' 3-cm subsidence apparent sea-level stability. since 1969 at DSL that was revealed by a comparison of' In Figure 3 the maximal annual sea-level heights re­ MSLs at the two stations (CANESTHI';LLI and PII{J\ZZOLI.
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