bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/771220; this version posted September 16, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries Olga Krylova1,2, David J.D. Earn1,3,* 1 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1 2 Advanced Analytics, Canadian Institute for Health Information, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K2A 4H6 3 M.G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1 *
[email protected] Abstract Smallpox is unique among infectious diseases in the degree to which it devasted human populations, its long history of control interventions, and the fact that it has been successfully eradicated. Mortality from smallpox in London, England, was carefully documented, weekly, for nearly 300 years, providing a rare and valuable source for the study of ecology and evolution of infectious disease. We describe and analyze smallpox mortality in London from 1664 to 1930. We digitized the weekly records published in the London Bills of Mortality and the Registrar General's Weekly Returns. We annotated the resulting time series with a sequence of historical events that appear to have influenced smallpox dynamics in London. We present a spectral analysis that reveals how periodicities in smallpox dynamics changed over decades and centuries, and how these changes were related to control interventions and public health policy changes.