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Using Local Knowledge to Understand Climate Variability in the Cook Islands

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Using Local Knowledge to Understand Climate Variability in the Cook Islands Using local knowledge to understand climate variability in the Cook Islands Prepared by: Teina Rongo and Celine Dyer Climate Change Cook Islands Office of the Prime Minister JANUARY 2015 Using local knowledge to understand climate variability in the Cook Islands Prepared by: Teina Rongo and Celine Dyer Climate Change Cook Islands Office of the Prime Minister This work was a collaboration between the Office of the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands (Climate Change Division), Secretariat of the Pacific Community, European Union, the Global Climate Change Alliance, the Adaptation Fund, and the United Nations Development Program. 1 How to cite this report: Rongo, T., and Dyer, C. 2014. Using local knowledge to understand climate variability in the Cook Islands. Government of the Cook Islands. 55 pp. *Corresponding author: Office of the Prime Minister, Private Bag, Avarua, Rarotonga, Cook Islands; [email protected]; [email protected]. Front cover photo: Lake Tiriara, Mangaia; taken by Teina Rongo in 2014. Back cover photo: Surgeonfish Acanthurus guttatus on the fore reef of Vaimaanga, Rarotonga; taken by Teina Rongo in 2009. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.1. INFLUENCE OF THE SPCZ IN THE COOK ISLANDS............................................................... 6 1.1.1. Pacific Decadal Variability.......................................................................................... 7 1.2. PRIMARY OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................ 9 1.3. MATERIALS AND METHODS..................................................................................................... 9 1.3.1. Data analysis.............................................................................................................. 9 2. RESULTS........................................................................................................................................................ 10 2.1. CLIMATE CHANGE AWARENESS............................................................................................. 10 2.2. RAINFALL PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1976/77 SHIFT.......................................... 11 2.3. INDICATORS............................................................................................................................... 13 2.3.1. Indicators associated with rainfall.............................................................................. 13 2.3.2. Indicators associated with climate change impacts................................................... 13 2.3.3. Other indicators.......................................................................................................... 13 3. DISCUSSION.................................................................................................................................................. 19 3.1. CLIMATE CHANGE AWARENESS............................................................................................ 19 3.2. CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.................................................. 19 3.2.1. Terrestrial floral and faunal changes in the southern Cook Islands.......................... 20 3.2.1.1. Changes in fruiting seasons.................................................................... 23 3.2.2. Terrestrial floral and faunal changes in the northern Cook Islands........................... 24 3.2.3. Changes in target marine resources.......................................................................... 26 3.2.3.1. Loss of whitebait...................................................................................... 29 3.2.4. Ciguatera poisoning................................................................................................... 30 3.3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS.................................................................................................... 32 3.3.1. Sea level rise............................................................................................................. 33 3.3.2. Oceanographic changes............................................................................................ 34 3.3.3. Ocean acidification..................................................................................................... 37 3.3.4. Coral bleaching.......................................................................................................... 37 3.3.5. Changes in reef health............................................................................................... 40 3.4. OTHER CHANGES...................................................................................................................... 42 3.4.1. Changes associated with air temperature variation................................................... 42 3.4.2. Terrestrial environment............................................................................................... 42 3.4.2.1. Introduced trees....................................................................................... 42 3.4.3. Marine environment.................................................................................................... 43 3.4.3.1. Changes in pelagic fisheries.................................................................... 43 3.4.3.2. Changes in shark populations................................................................. 45 3.4.3.3. Changes in spawning and recruitment activities..................................... 46 3.4.3.4. Pa`ua ...................................................................................................... 48 4. SUMMARY...................................................................................................................................................... 49 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................................................... 50 LITERATURE CITED.......................................................................................................................................................... 51 APPENDIX.......................................................................................................................................................................... 53 GLOSSARY......................................................................................................................................................................... 54 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change has been the topic of much research in the last few decades, however information on its impacts — particularly on remote small island nations — remain scant. Yet, through centuries of observation of their natural environment, Pacific islanders hold a wealth of knowledge of the sky, land, and sea. Sadly, with a shift towards a more western lifestyle on some of these islands in recent decades, this local knowledge is at risk of being lost because it is not passed down to younger generations; recognizing this, Climate Change Cook Islands of the Office of the Prime Minister conducted a questionnaire survey on most of the Cook Islands from January to April 2014. The aim of the survey was to collect information on changes in various biological and physical systems over people’s lifetimes to understand climate variability in this region. Causal factors for some changes recorded seem complex and difficult to explain with the limited information available. Nevertheless, a large number of changes seemingly coincided with hydroclimatic shifts associated with the well-documented phase shift of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (IPO/PDO) in 1976/77 that affected rainfall distribution in the region; this shift coincided largely with the loss or the decline of many important floral and faunal species on the islands in both the terrestrial and marine environment. We note that the recent shift in the IPO/PDO to the negative phase would bring less rainfall to the northern group, and therefore certain measures need to be taken to minimize the adverse impacts (e.g., water shortages) this shift may have on island communities there. It was difficult to link observed changes recorded in this survey to the effects of anthropogenic-driven climate change. However, some changes recorded may support the well-documented global sea level rise, such as the loss of salt crystals on reef flats and shorter low tide durations. The latter has negative repercussions on the livelihood of residents, especially in the outer islands of the southern group, because it limits people’s access to marine resources as most subsistence fishing is carried out during low tide. Rougher sea conditions and stronger ocean currents that have been observed by fishers may explain the decline in the ika tauira (new recruits of reef fishes) throughout the Cook Islands in recent years, which is a concern with regards to food security and reef health in general. The decline in pelagic fish stocks noted throughout the Cook Islands is also concerning, and managers need to take these observations seriously considering the lack of historical information on these fisheries in the Cook Islands, and the interest of the Government to increase offshore
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