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Risk Analysis CMTV-Like Virus April 2013 1 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Risk analysis CMTV-like virus April 2013 1 This document should be referred to as: Rijks JM, Sptizen-van der Sluijs A, Leuven RSEW, Martel A, Kik M, Pasmans, F, Zollinger R, Verbrugge LNH, Gröne A (2012). Risk analysis of the common midwife toad-like virus (CMTV-like virus) in the Netherlands. NVWA, Min EZ report 60000784-2012 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Risk analysis CMTV-like virus April 2013 2 Table of contents Executive summary 5 Part 1 - General background information for risk analysis 9 Theme 1 - The virus 10 Theme 2 - Distribution of CMTV-like virus 12 Theme 3 - Known susceptible host species 14 Theme 4 - Host life stages affected 16 Theme 5 - Dispersal characteristics of host species 18 Theme 6 - Distribution of susceptible host species in the Netherlands 20 Theme 7 - Distribution of potential hosts across the border 22 Theme 8 - Accompanying amphibian species 24 Theme 9 - Water body types with CMTV-like virus 26 Theme 10 - Month of outbreak and water temperature 28 Theme 11 - Water quality at outbreak sites 30 Theme 12 - Inventory of trade of amphibians in Belgium 32 Theme 13 - Inventory of hobby kept amphibians in Belgium 34 Theme 14 - Legal re-introductions and translocations in the Netherlands 36 Theme 15 - Illegal introductions 38 Theme 16 - Flyways 39 Part 2 - Risk assessment 40 1. Method 40 2. Results 42 2.1 Probability of introduction 42 2.1.1 Introduction through human activities 42 2.1.1.1 Legal trade through Schiphol 42 2.1.1.2. Amphibian trade in Belgium 44 2.1.1.3 Entry of CMTV-like virus imported via live amphibians into nature 45 2.1.2. Introduction through natural dispersal 46 2.1.2.1 Introduction via infected amphibians crossing borders into the Netherlands 46 2.1.2.2 Introduction via migrating birds 46 2.2 Likelihood of establishment 47 2.2.1 Susceptible hosts are present 47 2.2.1.1 Susceptible species 47 2.2.1.2 Susceptible populations 47 2.2.1.3 Susceptible individuals 47 2.2.2 Dutch environment in general appears suitable 49 2.2.2.1 Temperature 49 2.2.2.2 Suitable sites 49 2.2.3 The virus has strategies to maintain itself 49 2.2.3.1 Probable lengthy survival outside the host 50 2.2.3.2 Reservoirs 50 2.3 Probability of spread 50 2.3.1 Spread through human activities 50 2.3.1.1 Legal re-introductions and translocations of threatened native species 50 2.3.1.2 Other human-mediated transfer of potentially infected hosts 52 2.3.1.3 Dispersal by fomites (equipment, transfer of water or sediment) 52 2.3.2 Natural spread 52 2.3.2.1 Dispersal of (sub-)clinically infected hosts 52 2.3.2.2 Birds or other animals 53 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Risk analysis CMTV-like virus April 2013 3 2.4 High risk areas 53 2.5 Impact 54 2.5.1 Ecological impact 54 2.5.1.1 Amphibians 54 2.5.1.2 Effects on biodiversity 55 2.5.2 Socio-economic impact 56 2.6 Risk classification using the ISEIA protocol 57 2.6.1. Expert consensus scores 57 2.6.2 Dispersion potential or invasiveness 57 2.6.3 Colonisation of high conservation value habitats 58 2.6.4 Adverse impacts on native species 58 2.6.5 Alteration of ecosystem functions 58 2.6.6 Risk classification 59 Part 3 - Risk management options 61 3.1. Prevention of introduction 61 3.1.1 Make sure that CMMTV-like virus can be detected in imported captive specimens at the border 3.1.1.1 Obtain sufficient sight on amphibians imported 61 3.1.1.2 Improve the capacity to detect CMTV-like virus in imported specimens at the border 61 3.1.2 Reduce the risk that CMTV-like virus enters nature via imported kept amphibians and their waste 63 3.1.2.1 Obtain good sight on amphibian and vivarium waste disposal behavior 63 3.1.2.2 Make sure that people are aware of risky behavior and know how to minimize it 63 3.1.3 Make sure that CMTV-like virus imported via natural dispersal can be detected early on at its site of introduction, before it occurs widespread 63 3.1.3.1 Obtain a better understanding of the relative importance of introduction via natural dispersal 63 3.1.3.2 Ensure monitoring for early detection and source tracing 63 3.2 Elimination 65 3.2.1 Assisted elimination – currently only applies to captive populations and small free-living populations 65 3.2 1.1 Encourage destocking and disinfection for elimination of infection in captive settings 65 3.2.1.2 Explore options for elimination in the case of (small) infected free-living populations 65 3.2.2 Natural elimination – learn from it for larger scale assisted elimination 66 3.3 Control 68 3.3.1 Prevent human mediated spread of virus within the Netherlands 68 3.3.1.1 Prevent inadvertent to new sites via re-introduction projects 68 3.3.1.2 Prevent inadvertent spread to new sites by public or field biologists 68 3.3.2 Explore the possibility to take advantage of natural barriers to limit natural dispersal 68 3.3.3 Try to avoid further impact on threatened species and high conservation value habitats 68 3.3.4 Make sure the correct data is collected to be able to predict the effectiveness of control And elimination measures 69 Glossary 71 List of abbreviations 72 Acknowledgements 73 References 73 Contributors 80 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Risk analysis CMTV-like virus April 2013 4 Executive summary The term CMTV-like virus is used to indicate the common midwife toad virus (CMTV, GenBank accession no. FM213466.1) and viruses with partial major capsid genes showing 99.8% to 100 % sequence homology. CMTV-like virus infection is an emerging infectious disease in wild amphibians in the Netherlands. One possibility is that CMTV- like virus is a recently introduced exotic pathogen. Study aim and set-up The aim of this study is to perform a risk analysis for CMTV-like virus in the Netherlands. General background information from the literature, field surveys and interviews, was compiled in 16 themes (Part 1). Subsequently, an assessment was performed to identify 1) the possible routes of introduction of CMTV-like virus into the Netherlands, 2) the likelihood of its establishment, 3) the likelihood of its spread, and 4) the possible ecological and social impact of CMTV-like virus. An ecological risk classification score was obtained using the Belgian Invasive Species Environmental Impact Assessment (ISEIA) protocol (Part 2). Finally, opportunities for management were evaluated, as well as aspects that require further understanding for appropriate decision-making (Part 3). Part 1 - General background information for risk analysis (themes 1-16) CMTV-like virus is an amphibian ranavirus (Th.1). The virus has been detected in restricted areas in Spain in 2007 and 2008, in Belgium in 2010, and in the Netherlands in 2010, 2011 and 2012. In the Netherlands, the virus was first detected in a high conservation value habitat, the National Park Dwingelderveld (Th.2). Ranaviruses infect amphibians, reptiles or fish, or several of these (Th.1). CMTV-like virus has caused disease and mortality in half of the amphibian species that are native to the Netherlands. Among these species is the vulnerable common spadefoot Pelobates fuscus . The susceptible amphibian species belong to the order of frogs ( Anura ) or salamanders ( Caudata). In addition, CMTV-like virus infections have been observed naturally in amphibian species exotic to the Netherlands, in particular the American bullfrog Lithobathes catesbianus and poison dart frogs Dendrobates spp. The infected amphibians can show disease, but infection can also be subclinical. Evidence for infection of fish is inconclusive: one specimen found dead tested positive by PCR but autolysis hampered pathological investigation. Therefore, it remains unclear whether this case represented a true infection or contamination from the aquatic environment (Th.3). Multiple life stages of amphibians were shown to be infected in the Netherlands. The fact that not only larvae and juveniles but also (sub-)adult amphibians died during outbreaks, is suggestive of disease emergence in immunologically naïve populations (Th.4). A number of the susceptible host species are common species found in most of the country (Th.5), as well as in the neighbouring countries Belgium and Germany (Th.6). Many are good dispersers, meaning they may move distances up to several kilometres per year (Th.7). This information is relevant to the potential of the virus to spread. Further, many of the susceptible host species are common and characteristic accompanying species for each other, suggesting frequent opportunity for inter-species exposure (Th.8). Themes 9 – 11 report environmental factors that are associated with disease occurrence. The water bodies where CMTV-like outbreaks have been detected are both natural and man-made and vary in soil type, size, altitude, and uses. However, they were generally permanent, small to medium sized and unconnected to other water bodies (Th.9). Mass mortalities due to CMTV-like virus occurred in the period May to September 2011. Monitoring at infected pools in the National Park Dwingelderveld showed that water temperature at monitored sites was on average ± 19°C, and it followed mean daily air temperature. However, mortality can also occur in water that is several degrees colder (Th.10). Measurements provided no clear evidence for poor water quality at sites with CMTV-like virus associated amphibian mortality (Th.11). Themes 12 – 16 cover aspects relevant to translocation of infection. For understanding of the ways how amphibians could enter the Netherlands via Belgium, data were obtained on amphibians provided for trade by importing dealers in Belgium.
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