Growth and Diversity of the Population of the

By BARBARA A. ANDERSON and BRIAN D. SILVER

ABSTRACT: The most remarkable feature of the Soviet Union’s demography is its ethnic diversity. More than 90 ethnic groups are indigenous to the territory of the Soviet Union. Ethnic composed only 50.8 percent of the population according to preliminary 1989 census results. The article examines official Soviet statistics for the period 1959 to 1989 to illustrate some of the risks in describing Soviet demographic behavior. Is fertility in the Soviet Union high or low? Answer: both. Is the Soviet population growing rapidly or slowly? Answer: both. The changing ethnic composition of the population of the USSR as a whole reflects large differences in growth rates of ethnic groups; the changing composition of the USSR by region also reflects differences in migration by . Differences in growth rates are reshaping the ethnic composition of the Soviet labor force. For the USSR as a whole between 1979 and 1989, three-fourths of the net increment to the working ages was contributed by the one-sixth of the population in 1979 that was traditionally Muslim in religion.

Barbara A. Anderson is professor of sociology at the University of Michigan and research scientist and associate director for training at the university’s Population Studies Center. She holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton University. She is the author of Internal Migration and Modernization in Late Nineteenth-Century and coauthor ofHuman Fertility in Russia. Brian D. Silver is professor and chairperson of the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University and a research affiliate of the Population Studies Center of the University of Michigan. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin. He is coeditor of Soviet Asian Ethnic Frontiers.

NOTE: The authors share equal responsibility for this article. The research was supported by NICHD grant nos. ROl HD-19915 and P30 HD-10003. 155 156

Soviet Union has the third-largest Perhaps the most remarkable feature of THE-L population of any country in the the Soviet Union’s demography is not its world. The 1989 census counted 286.7 mil- size or the state of its public health but its lion people.’ Developments in the Soviet ethnic diversity. Members of more than population have been of great interest be- ninety ethnic groups that are indigenous to cause of its size and because of the impor- the territory of the Soviet Union were tance of the Soviet Union in world affairs. counted in the 1989 census. Twenty-two In addition, reports of unfavorable demo- ethnic groups-&dquo;,&dquo; in com- graphic features of the Soviet population, mon Soviet usage-had populations of 1 such as high rates of infant mortality and million or more. Ethnic Russians com- adult mortality, have been cited within the posed 50.8 percent of the population in country and abroad as evidence of the low 1989 and they will fall below 50 percent of quality of life in the Soviet Union com- the Soviet population before the middle of pared to other industrial countries. The in- the 1990s.~ In addition to 145 million eth- fant mortality rate, for example, was 25.4 nic Russians in 1989, the Soviet population infant deaths per 1000 live births in 1987; had 56 million members of other Slavic life expectancy at birth for Soviet males nationalities, 56 million members of na- was 65.0 years and for females, 73.8 years, tionalities whose traditional religion is in 1986-87.’ Islam, and another 29 million people who are neither Slavs nor Muslims. Moreover, 1. This is the total of the de facto or present (in the Muslim population is growing rapidly. in the USSR accord- Russian, nalichnoe) population only one-sixth of the ing to preliminary figures from the 1989 census. The Though comprising of the USSR in Muslims de jure or permanent (postoiannoe) population is 1 population 1979, million less: 285.7 million. The State Committee on contributed 50 percent of the increase in Statistics of the USSR-formerly the Central Statis- the Soviet population between 1979 and tical Board - has changed the way in which it reports 1989. most data in the censuses. Barbara A. population It should be difficult for observers of the Anderson and Brian D. Silver, "’Permanent’ and ’Present’ Populations in Soviet Statistics," Soviet Soviet Union today to ignore the multi- Studies, 37:386-402 (July 1985). Accordingly, unless ethnic character of that country, as the noted otherwise, all data in this article from the 1959 non-Russian nationalities seek greater and 1970 Soviet censuses refer to the present popula- economic, cultural, and political auton- tion, and all data from the 1979 and 1989 censuses sometimes their feel- refer to the permanent population. omy, manifesting in 2. All of these reported figures are subject to ings large-scale public demonstrations. error. Infant deaths appear to be underreported sub- There have been many reported inci- stantially, especially in the regions with high rates; dents of violence between ethnic groups- and Soviet definitions of "infant death" and "live not only, as might be commonly supposed, birth" differ from those proposed by the World Health Organization. We estimate that the reported infant ment of age in Soviet censuses. Idem, "The Changing mortality rates for the Soviet Union need to be inflated Shape of Soviet Mortality, 1958-85: An Evaluation of by at least 22 percent to make them comparable with Old and New Evidence," Population Studies, 43:243- World Health Organization definitions. Barbara A. 65 (July 1989). Anderson and Brian D. Silver, "Infant Mortality in the 3. For further discussion of the changing ethnic Soviet Union: Regional Differences and Measure- composition of the Soviet population, see Barbara A. ment Issues," Population and Development Review, Anderson and Brian D. Silver, "Demographic Sources 12:705-38(Dec. 1986). Life expectancy at birth is of the Changing Ethnic Composition of the Soviet probably overestimated, due to underreporting of Union," Population and Development Review, Dec. deaths, overstatement of age at death, and overstate- 1989, vol. 15. 157 between Russians and non-Russians, but ranges from a low of 39.5 percent in also between members of non-Russian Kazakhstan to a high of 93.9 percent in nationalities. Armenia. Consequently, statistics for the But even today one often reads of Soviet SSRs do not reflect only the demographic public health, Soviet mortality, and Soviet behavior of the titular . Never- population growth, as if the range of demo- theless, differences in the behavior of the graphic experience in the USSR were titular nationalities are the main source of small. In this article we highlight the mag- differences in most demographic behaviors nitude of the demographic differences as- of the populations of the SSRs. We shall sociated with the ethnic diversity of the use demographic statistics on ethnic USSR, while describing trends in some of groups when they are available. the main indicators of demographic change. SOVIET DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOR Our analysis is based on official Soviet AS A COMPOSITE OF population statistics.’ Although ethnic dif- THE BEHAVIOR OF ITS PARTS ferences in demographic behavior are very Change in the behavior of a population important in the Soviet Union, we cannot often reflects different rates of change in conduct our entire analysis on this basis, different subpopulations. For example, because very few data by ethnic group have from 1971 to 1976, the infant mortality rate been published. Thus part of our analysis (IMR) in the Soviet Union rose from 22.9 relies on examination of regional patterns. infant deaths per 1000 live births to 31.4, The Soviet Union has a federal political an increase of 37 percent. This increase system. Most major types of demographic was much larger in the rural areas: the IMR data are published both for the Soviet in rural areas rose from 24.3 to 37.8-an Union as a whole and for the 15 major increase of 56 percent-while the IMR in constituent union republics-also known the urban areas increased 24 percent, from as Soviet Socialist Republics (SSRs)-but 21.6 to 26.7. By 1987, the IMR of the not for ethnic groups. The 15 SSRs are as a whole had fallen to in the listed in Table 1. country 25.4; urban areas it was 21.1, and in the rural The SSRs are the traditional homelands areas it was 31.5. Thus the only reason the of major ethnic groups. These ethnic IMR in the USSR as a whole was higher in groups are the titular nationalities of these 1987 than in 1971 is that the rural IMR was regions in the sense that the areas are higher in 1987 than it had been in 1971. named after the ethnic group - Kazakhstan Social scientists sometimes use the term after the , after the Ukrai- &dquo;compositional effect&dquo; to describe situa- nians, and so on. But none of the areas is tions in which changes in the behavior of ethnically homogeneous. As shown in the whole population are a result of Table 1, the percentage of a republic’s pop- changes in the composition of that popula- ulation that is of the titular nationality tion rather than changes in the behavior of 4. These data have appeared in a variety of the constituent parts. For example, if a sources and are on based either Soviet censuses-of population consists of two subpopulations, 1959, 1970, 1979, and 1989-or on vital registration one with a crude birth rate of 20 live statistics. The data on ethnic groups for 1989 come (CBR) from preliminary unpublished official data from the births per 1000 population and another 1989 . with a CBR of 40, then the CBR of the Y L

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FIGURE 1 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SOVIET POPULATION AMONG REGIONS, 1987

combined population would depend on the Regional components of distribution of the population between the Soviet demographic behavior two groups. The CBR for the entire popu- Let us examine some data on the Soviet lation would fall somewhere between 20 population in 1987.~ Figure 1 shows the and 40. If the shares of the population that shares of the Soviet population that belong belonged to each group changed over time, to each of five regional groupings of 15 while the CBRs of each subpopulation re- SSRs: Russia, or the Russian Soviet Feder- mained the same, then the change in the ated Socialist Republic (RSFSR); Baltic, CBR of the entire would be a population composed of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithua- compositional effect. nia ; the West, comprising Belorussia, Mol- Of course, in real populations, change davia, and the Ukraine; Armenia-Georgia, in the whole population usually involves comprising Armenia and Georgia; and the both compositional changes and changes Muslim SSRs, which are Kaz- in the behavior of the sub- Azerbaijan, separate akhstan, Kirghizia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmen- populations. In a population as diverse as that of the Soviet Union, the contribution of to the in compositional changes changes 5. We use this year because it is the latest year statistics for the population as a whole is for which we have data on all of the indicators for often very large. which the following comparison is to be made. 160 istan, and Uzbekistan.’ A slight majority of This illustrates some of the risks in de- the population, 51.6 percent, lived in the scribing Soviet demographic behavior. Is RSFSR. Only about 3 percent of the popu- fertility in the Soviet Union high or low? lation lived in the Baltic or in Armenia- Answer: Both. It is low in the non-Muslim Georgia. Another 23 percent lived in the republics and very high in the Muslim re- three republics of the Soviet West, and 19 publics. Is the Soviet population growing percent lived in the six Muslim republics. rapidly or slowly? Answer: Both. It is Since these groupings exhaust the popula- growing rapidly in the Muslim republics, tion of the USSR, the weighted average of at 2.0 percent per year, and slowly in the the demographic behavior of the parts rep- non-Muslim republics at less than 1 per- resents the demographic behavior of the cent per year. USSR as a whole. Therefore, when one speaks of Soviet Now let us examine the share of births demographic behavior, one is speaking of and deaths that occurred in each region in an average of behaviors that differ greatly 1987. We pay particular attention to the across regions and ethnic groups. This av- shares contributed by the RSFSR and the erage reflects the behavior of some of the six Muslim republics. Figure 2a shows that parts better than others, depending on the 45 percent of all births occurred in the demographic indicator referred to. More- the does not RSFSR and 32 percent in the Muslim re- over, average necessarily publics. Figure 2b shows that 55 percent of mainly reflect the behavior of the largest all deaths occurred in the RSFSR, and only ethnic segments of the population, such 14 percent in the Muslim republics. Fig- as Russians or the Slavic groups taken ure 2c shows that while 34 percent of all together. infant deaths occurred in the RSFSR, 51 percent occurred in the Muslim republics. Ethnic components of Finally, Figure 2d shows that while 35 per- Soviet demographic behavior cent of the natural increase -births minus Data for Soviet are an deaths - occurred in the RSFSR, 50 per- regions imperfect cent occurred in the Muslim republics. surrogate for data on ethnic groups. Fortu- The shares contributed by each of the nately, for some demographic indicators we have direct data on ethnic All population subgroups vary greatly from groups. Soviet citizens have a one demographic indicator to the next be- nationality (in Rus- cause of differences between the sub- sian, natsional’nost’).’ After they receive their internal at Soviet groups in fertility, mortality, and age struc- passport age 16, citizens have an official ture. The shares of demographic events for nationality, which the Muslim republics differ from their is listed on their identity papers, employ- share for the Soviet population because the ment records, military records, and so Muslim republics have high fertility, high forth. It is difficult or impossible for an individual to this official national- infant mortality, and a young population change compared to the rest of the Soviet Union. 7. For a discussion of the terminology used in 6. This is a conventional grouping of the So- Soviet statistics on ethnic groups, see Brian D. Silver, viet republics, except for our placing of Azerbaijan "The Ethnic and Language Dimensions in Russian with the other Muslim republics rather than with the and Soviet Censuses," in Research Guide to the Rus- two other Transcaucasian republics of Armenia and sian and Soviet Censuses, ed. Ralph S. Clem (Ithaca, Georgia. NY: Cornell University Press, 1986), pp. 70-97. 161 162

FIGURE 3 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SOVIET POPULATION AMONG NATIONALITY GROUPINGS, 1989

ity. Nationality in the Soviet censuses, therefore not simply a result of fertility, however, is a subjective phenomenon, mortality, and international migration. based on the self-report of the individual. Based on projections of the population in Even if there were no emigration from 1989 from earlier data, whether ethnic the Soviet Union, ethnic groups would not Russians remained a majority of the popu- be closed populations, since people can lation of the USSR in 1989 depended sub- migrate into or out of a given nationality stantially on the extent of ethnic reidentifi- by changing their self-reported ethnic cation of the population between the identity from one census to the next. We censuses of 1979 and 1989. Some people refer to this process as ethnic reidentifica- who identified as a member of a non- tion. There is evidence of substantial ethnic Russian nationality in 1979 could have reidentification among Soviet non-Russian called themselves Russian in 1989, and nationalities in the past.8 some who identified as Russian in 1979 Change in the number of people belong- could have identified with a non-Russian ing to the different Soviet nationalities is nationality in 1989.’ Figure 3 shows the share of the popula- 8. For a summary of the evidence, as well as a tion that belonged to four groupings of discussion of methods of measuring ethnic reidentifi- Soviet to cation, see Barbara A. Anderson, "Some Factors Re- nationalities, according prelimi- lated to Ethnic Reidentification in the Russian Repub- nary data from the 1989 Soviet census: lic," in Soviet Nationality Policies and Practices Russians constituted 50.8 percent; non- (New York: Praeger, 1978), pp. 309-33; Barbara A. Russian Slavs, 19.5 percent; other non- Anderson and Brian D. Silver, "Estimating Russifica- tion of Ethnic Identity among Non-Russians in the 9. For further discussion, see Anderson and Sil- USSR," Demography, 20:461-89 (Nov. 1983). ver, "Demographic Sources." 163

Muslims, 10.3 percent; and Muslims, 19.4 last four census dates. Most noticeable are percent. The number of people that this the relative contributions of Muslims and represents is given in panel A of Table 2. Russians. Between 1959 and 1970 Mus- These figures are based on the entire Soviet lims contributed 31.7 percent of the popu- population, not only the titular nationalities lation growth of the USSR and Russians of the 15 union republics.&dquo; contributed 45.4 percent, but by 1979-89 In 1989, Russians remained a bare ma- this contribution had reversed: Muslims jority of the Soviet population. We think contributed 49.7 percent and Russians, the number of Russians is somewhat 32.6 percent. This reversal reflects the con- smaller than might have been expected, tinuing high fertility rates of Muslim na- due to a decrease in the tendency of non- tionalities and the low fertility rates of Rus- Russians to change their identification to sians, other Slavs, and other non-Muslims. Russian and perhaps to a return by some The differences in the growth rates of self-declared Russians to an earlier non- nationalities underlie the differences in the Russian ethnic identity. But with the avail- natural increase of Soviet regional popula- able data, we cannot measure the extent of tions depicted in Figure 2d.’2 But a com- ethnic reidentification between 1979 and parison of growth rates by region and by 1989.’1 nationality -compare panel C of Table 2 Panel B of Table 2 shows that Russians with panel C of Table 3 - also makes clear that use of data in of ethnic compose a decreasing share of the Soviet regional place population between the last four census group data often reduces the magnitude of dates, from 54.7 percent in 1959 to 50.8 the differences in demographic behavior.13 In for the percent in 1989. Muslims, on the other the period 1979-89, example, Muslim at an an- hand, constitute an increasing share, from population grew average 11.8 percent in 1959 to 19.4 percent in nual rate of 2.4 percent, while the popula- 1989. Non-Russian Slavs decreased their tion of the six Muslim republics grew at an share from 22.5 percent to 19.5 percent, annual rate of 2.0 percent. Similarly, the while other non-Muslims decreased from number of Russians grew at an average 11.0 percent to 10.3 percent. All four annual rate of 0.5 percent, while the popu- lation of the RSFSR at a rate of 0.7 groupings, however, grew in absolute size grew in each intercensal period. percent. The regional difference is smaller Panel D of Table 2 shows how much each of the four groupings of nationalities 12. In Figure 2d, we are able to depict rates of contributed to the overall population natural increase—births minus deaths—by region, growth of the Soviet Union between the because birth and death rates are reported for SSRs. In Table 2, we are not able to depict rates of natural 10. The Muslim population of the USSR, for increase of ethnic groups because birth and death rates example, consists of-in addition to the titular nation- are not reported for nationalities. But the growth rates alities of the six Muslim SSRs - the VolgaTatars, with given in the table’s panel C closely approximate the 6.6 million people in 1989; the Peoples of , rates of natural increase, since only a few nationalities with 2.1 million; the , with 1.0 million; and have experienced substantial international migration 21 more Muslim nationalities. in recent decades. 11. Estimation of the amount of ethnic reidentifi- 13. For further illustrations of this general point, cation requires data on the age distribution of the see Brian D. Silver, "Levels of Sociocultural Devel- population by nationality. To date—Dec. 1989-no opment among Soviet Nationalities: A Partial Test of data on age by nationality have been published for the Equalization Hypothesis," American Political either the 1979 or 1989 Soviet censuses. Science Review, 68:1618-37 (Dec. 1974). E cD 00

3~cj Wy~JLO m E M t- H W L W$ 2 #ZY FLU ,UO 0 x U H ’j LL .0C 0 O N © D Q) OL u t 0 N N cc ZL C.flD > N > U) q~ W Q) C. u ? S < m« . cc co 4 CY) 0) 0 x ’C N u C L W d 2 0 l~>-0 0 E CL 0 N cn c: +-Q~S-i a cn 0 E t; ca ?’ m S &dquo; E Nc w E CC CL D .M° a~ cn Cs:3 c:3 CO 164 165 166

FIGURE 4 ESTIMATED RATES OF NET INTERCENSAL IN-MIGRATION OF RUSSIANS TO REGIONS, 1959-89

NOTE: This figure shows the estimated amount of Russian net in-migration to the region between censuses divided by the number of Russians in the region at the first census.

than the ethnic group difference because We can refer to this as a net migration rates regions are not ethnically homogeneous Between 1959 and 1970, as well as be- and because of different migration patterns tween 1970 and 1979, there was net migra- by ethnic group. In particular, between tion of Russians into the Muslim republics. 1979 and 1989, on balance, Russians mi- Most of this migration was to the Virgin grated out of the Muslim republics and the Lands territory of Kazakhstan,’6 but there net migration of Russians out of the net number of Russian migrants into a region was RSFSR was close to zero. estimated as the difference between the number of 4 the estimated net num- Figure shows Russians in the region at the second date and the ber of Russian migrants into each region number of Russians there would have been in the between recent census dates divided by the region if the Russian population had grown between censuses to the Russian in number of persons in the region at the proportionately population the entire Soviet Union. For more discussion of these initial date. Thus it shows the proportion estimates, see Anderson and Silver, "Demographic by which the population of the region Sources." would have increased or decreased in the 15. Strictly speaking, there can be no net migra- period due to the migration of Russians.14 tion rate because there is no population at risk of net migration; however, such a measure is conventionally 14. Russians experienced very little international referred to as a net migration rate. migration. Thus their growth in the Soviet Union as a 16. In 1959-70, an estimated 69 percent of the net whole is primarily the result of natural increase. The Russian migration to the Muslim republics was to 167

was a net influx of Russians into five of the the adverse consequences of this policy- six Muslim republics in both the 1959-70 in particular, its threat to the preservation and 1970-79 intercensal periods-the ex- of ethnic distinctiveness and its exacerba- ception was Azerbaijan, from which there tion of interethnic tensions.’8 was net out-migration of Russians in both Between 1979 and periods. 1989, however, DIFFERENCES IN REGIONAL AND there was net out-migration of Russians ETHNIC DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS from all six Muslim republics.&dquo; Figure 4 also shows that there was net In the remainder of this article, we ex- out-migration of Russians from Armenia plore several dimensions of Soviet demo- and Georgia in all three intercensal periods graphic behavior by region and by ethnic as well as net in-migration of Russians to group. We turn now to infant mortality. both the Baltic and the Soviet West in all three periods. Russians were not the only Infant mortality internal migrants; however, Russians, , and Belorussians composed The IMR is often interpreted as an indi- the bulk of those Soviet citizens who cator of the quality of life in a society. It moved across union-republic boundaries reflects the effects of personal health and in response to new jobs. hygiene, diet, public health and sanitation In the 1950s and 1960s, a policy of the programs, and the quality and availability intermixing of different nationalities was of medical services. Figure 5 shows the endorsed openly by central authorities, and differences in the average IMRs for the relocation of labor was one method of republics in each group at five-year inter- achieving such mixing. This policy has vals from 1960 to 1985. The IMR for the long been controversial in the non-Russian USSR as a whole in 1985 was about the republics. The net result of the migration same as it was in 1965. This contrasts with patterns by different ethnic groups in re- the trend toward improvement in infant cent decades has been the increasing ethnic mortality in most other countries of the homogenization and, one might say, in- industrial world. digenization, of the Muslim republics, Ar- The data for separate regional group- menia, and Georgia, and the decreasing ings show different levels and trends in homogenization - increasing Russianiza- infant mortality. In the RSFSR and the tion-of the Baltic and the Soviet West. In Baltic, the IMR declined in each five-year September 1989, the Central Committee of interval except 1970-75. In the West also the Communist Party of the Soviet Union the IMR rose between 1970 and 1975 and for the first time formally acknowledged was lower in 1985 than in 1960 and 1965, but between 1965 and 1985 there was little Kazakhstan; in 1970-79, an estimated 44 percent of decline. The in Armenia and Geor- the net Russian migration to these republics was to pattern Kazakhstan. gia is similar to that found in the West, 17. For further details on the ethnic patterns of except that the IMR in 1985 was much migration, see Brian D. Silver, "Population Redistri- lower than the IMR in 1965. In general, the bution and the Ethnic Balance in Transcaucasia," in patterns of in the IMRs in the Nationalism and Sacial Change in Transcaucasia, ed. change Ronald G. Suny (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan 18. See "Party’s Draft Platform on Nationalities Press, 1983), pp. 376-96; Anderson and Silver, "De- Policy," Current Digest of the Soviet Press, 13 Sept. mographic Sources." 1989, pp. 1-8. 168

FIGURE 5 INFANT MORTALITY RATE FOR USSR AND SOVIET REGIONS, 1960-85

RSFSR, Baltic, West, and Armenia- of the USSR.19 That the IMR in 1960 re- Georgia were similar to one another be- ported for the Muslim republics was lower tween 1960 and 1985. than the IMRs reported for other regions The most distinctive pattern appears in undoubtedly reflects underreporting of in- the Muslim republics. There the reported fant deaths in the Muslim republics. This IMR in 1960 was, on average, lower than does not mean that all infant deaths were that found in the USSR as a whole and in reported in other regions, but the extent of the other four regions. It then rose to a peak the underreporting was probably much in the mid-1970s and subsequently de- greater in the Muslim areas.2° The rise in IMR clined. The average in 1985, however, 19. We have heard reports of IMRs of over 100 was substantially higher than the IMR in for some remote parts of , within the RSFSR. 1960, 1965, and 1970, and it was much No IMRs that high have been officially published for higher than the IMR in the other Soviet any region of the Soviet Union in recent years, how- ever. regions. 20. Elsewhere we estimated the IMRs for the Why the distinctive pattern among indigenous nationalities of the Muslim republics. We Muslim republics? The figures for 1960 found that in 1959, the IMRs of people belonging to tell part of the story. Medical services, the indigenous nationalities were lower than the IMRs of the European-background population—such as health care, and public sanitation are of Russians and Ukrainians—living in the Muslim re- lower and more limited quality availability publics. This is implausible. See Barbara A. Ander- in the Muslim republics, especially those son, Brian D. Silver, and Jinyun Liu, "Mortality of in , than in most other regions Ethnic Groups in Soviet Central Asia and Northern 169 the IMRs in the Muslim republics in later some of the increase in infant mortality was years probably reflects mostly improve- also real. There are many reports, for ex- ments in the reporting of infant deaths, not ample, of poor water quality in Central worsening actual infant mortality. In other Asia, perhaps intensified by the increasing words, the actual IMRs in the Muslim re- population density in rural areas. publics in 1960 were probably higher than the rates in the mid-1970s and reported Fertility rates later. Elsewhere we have argued that the rise Part of the explanation of the high rates in reported infant mortality in the Soviet of infant mortality among Soviet Muslim Union in the early 1970s was mostly an populations may be high fertility. When artifact of improvements in statistical re- women have many children, especially in cord keeping and the completeness of re- the context of limited availability of pre- porting of infant deaths, especially in So- natal care or limited possibility of using the viet Central Asia. Both in Central Asia and available services, then newborns are likely elsewhere in the Soviet Union, new proce- to be at high risk of dying. Among some dures introduced in the early 1970s for Muslim populations, such as Tadzhiks and tabulating infant deaths, along with in- Turkmenians, the frequency of marriages creasing incentives for registering infants between cousins is also a special risk factor who were at high risk of dying in infancy, for infant mortality. could have raised the reported IMRs even Figure 6 shows the average total fertility if the actual IMRs remained the same or rate (TFR) for the titular nationalities of the five of declined.2’ We think these new procedures regions the USSR at three dates, and incentives would have had this effect 1958-59, 1969-70, and 1978-79, as re- not only in the Muslim republics but also ported by Soviet demographers.23 The TFR in other parts of the Soviet Union. is the number of children that a woman This does not mean that all increases in would have in her reproductive life if she mortality reported in the 1960s and 1970s followed a given age-specific fertility such as that of women a in the Soviet Union were an artifact of schedule, all in 6 shows that the TFR of improved reporting. The increase in re- given year. Figure ported mortality of working-age males be- the Muslim groups is much higher than that of the others. On as late as 1978- ginning in the mid-1960s probably re- average, flected real worsening of the health of 79, Muslim women could expect to bear Soviet males.22 Moreover, it is possible that 5.6 children, while non-Muslim women could expect to bear between 1.8 and 2.3 ," Research Reports (University of Michigan, children. Population Studies Center), Sept. 1989, no. 89-158. The low of non- 21. See Anderson and Silver, "Infant Mortality in comparatively fertility the Soviet Union." Muslim women is not a result of a high 22. For further discussion, see Barbara A. Ander- incidence of childlessness; in fact, very son and Brian D. Silver, "Sex Differentials in Mortal- high proportions of non-Muslim women ity in the Soviet Union: Regional Differences in marry and have at least one child. High Length of Working Life in Comparative Perspective," Population Studies, 40:191-214 (July 1986); idem, 23. G. Bondarskaia and L. Darskii, "Etnicheskaia "Changing Shape"; idem, "Patterns of Cohort Mortal- differentsiatsiia rozhdaemosti v SSSR" (Ethnic dif- ity in the Soviet Population," Population and Devel- ferentiation of fertility in the USSR), Vestnik statistiki, opment Review, 15:471-501 (Sept. 1989). Dec. 1988, no. 12, pp. 16-21. 170

FIGURE 6 AVERAGE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE OF TITULAR NATIONALITY IN UNION REPUBLICS WITHIN REGIONS, 1958-79

fertility of Soviet Muslim women has per- from more complete reporting of births.24 sisted despite their high levels of education It has been estimated, for example, that in compared to Muslim women in other coun- Tadzhikistan 23 percent of the births in the tries. For example, in the rural population latter 1950s were not reported .15 Un- of Tadzhikistan in 1979, 48 percent of fe- 24. A real increase in fertility between 1959 and 10 or over at least seven males aged had 1970 could have occurred as a result of a reduction in years of education; and of the six Muslim the proportion of women of childbearing ages who are republics, the population of Tadzhikistan married to much older men. See Barbara A. Anderson, had the lowest level of educational attain- "Male Age and Fertility: Results from Ireland prior to 1911," Population Index, 41:561-66 (1974). ment in 1979. In contrast, in in Egypt 1976, 25. See Ansley J. Coale, Barbara A. Anderson, only 15 percent of females aged 10 or over and Erna Härm, Human Fertility in Russia since the had at least primary education. Nineteenth Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univer- The rise in the reported TFR among sity Press, 1979); Anderson and Silver, "Estimating Muslims between 1958-59 and 1969-70 Russification." For indirect evidence of improvement in registration of births, see idem, "The Effects of the was the result of a combination probably Registration System on the Seasonality of Births: The of some real increase in fertility and an Case of the Soviet Union," Population Studies, artifactual increase in fertility resulting 42:303-20 (July 1988). 171 derregistration persisted into the 1960s births in the Muslim republics was fifth and 1970s but probably diminished in order or higher.&dquo; prevalence. 16 The percentage of high-order births has The strong ethnic differences in the dropped at successive dates in every re- TFRs illustrate why the answer to the ques- gion, except for the increase between 1965 tion, Is fertility in the Soviet Union high or and 1970 in the Muslim SSRs. This is low? is, Both. At the same time, it is clear consistent with the pattern of change in the that the rates are changing. As shown in TFRs during the same time span. Figure 6, they declined for all ethnic group- between 1969-70 and 1978-79. In ings Distribution by age later years, for which we have data by region but not by ethnic group, the TFRs of A major consequence of the differences Muslim areas continued to decline through in fertility between regions and ethnic the 1980s, but they rose slightly in the groups is differences in the age distribu- non-Muslim areas. As a result, the TFR of tions of the population as well as differ- the USSR population in 1986-87 was 2.51, ences in the growth of segments of the age compared to 2.27 in 1978-79. structure. Of special interest is the size of the working-age population, as well as the population below and above the working High-order births ages. By convention in Soviet labor statis- Another indicator of differences in fer- tics, the working ages are 16-59 for men tility behavior within the Soviet Union is and 16-54 for women, although this does the prevalence of high-order births. Fig- not mean that all people enter the labor force at 16 and retire at 55 ure 7 shows the percentage of births that exactly age age or 60. are of fifth or higher order for various Panels A C of Table 4 show for years for which data are available for So- through viet republics. each regional grouping the number of per- sons in the three at the time If any single measure could testify to the age categories sharp difference in the life situations of of the censuses of 1959,1970, and 1979, as well as in which is not a census women, and the comparative risks of infant 1987, mortality between regions and ethnic year.28 The data from these panels are sum- marized in 8. We use data on groups, it is this one. In the 1960s and early Figure regions 1970s, more than 30 percent of all births 27. This measure actually understates the differ- were of fifth or higher order in the Muslim ence between Muslim and non-Muslim fertility, be- cause it does not take into account differences in the republics. Even in 1986, one of every six age structures of the regional populations. Since the 26. Coale, Anderson, and Härm, Human Fertil- age distribution of women in the Muslim republics is ity in Russia; Barbara A. Anderson and Brian D. much younger than the age distribution of women in Silver, "Estimating Census Undercount from School- other regions, proportionately fewer Muslim women Enrollment Data: An Application to the Soviet Cen- would be near the end of their childbearing years. suses of 1959 and 1970," Demography, 20:461-89 28. The latest date for which age data for the (Nov. 1983); W. Ward Kingkade, An Evaluation of Soviet population have been published is 1987, a Selected Soviet Population Statistics, CIR Staff Paper noncensus year. Age distributions in Soviet censuses no. 9, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the are subject to error caused by undercounting of young Census, Center for International Research, Nov. 1985. children, older adolescents, and young adults, as well 172

FIGURE 7 PERCENTAGE OF BIRTHS THAT WERE ORDER FIVE OR HIGHER FOR USSR AND SOVIET REGIONS, 1965-86

rather than ethnic groups because statistics In the fifth region - the Muslim SSRs - on the age distributions of ethnic groups the number of persons below working ages have not been published since the 1970 more than doubled between 1959 and census. 1987, from 10.1 million to 21.1 million. Four of the regions - RSFSR, Baltic, This is not surprising in light of the differ- West, and Armenia-Georgia -experienced entials in fertility observed earlier. More- little change between 1959 and 1987 in the over, the Muslim populations of Soviet number of persons under the working ages. Central Asia did not suffer losses in World The dip between 1970 and 1979 in the War II as severe as those suffered by the RSFSR is an echo of the small size of the Russians, Balts, Ukrainians, and Belorus- cohort of women born during World War sians and hence do not show a decline II, which resulted in a small cohort being between 1970 and 1979 in the number of bom during the 1970s. A similar, though people below the working ages.&dquo; weaker, pattern appears also in the West All of the regions experienced growth and the Baltic. in the number of persons in the working as age misstatement, including age exaggeration, by 29. For further discussion of the demographic old people. For further discussion, see Anderson and impact of World War II on Soviet nationalities, see Silver, "Estimating Census Undercount"; Lea Keil Barbara A. Anderson and Brian D. Silver, "Demo- Garson, "The Centenarian Question: Old Age Mortal- graphic Consequences of World War II on the Non- ity in the Soviet Union 1897-1970" (Ph.D. diss., Russian Nationalities of the USSR," in The Impact of Princeton University, 1986). We do not have enough World War II on the Soviet Union (Totowa, NJ: Row- information to correct the age distributions for each man & Allanheld, 1985), pp. 207-42; idem, "Patterns region. of Cohort Mortality in the Soviet Population." ë- 0) E N 0 T! ê3 c .s 3 Q) c 0 N 5 .5 e ’0 1 C 0 .2 ;S Y 3 L CL Y 0 ’5 a Q) oo fez Z 6 Q) COIt) U 0 N c. 2E 0 O_ L V111 3 UJ o ec LIf) ’5 m C M 0 z 0 Q) 3 G 5 s a v~ C) 0IL e: W 8 ,o 1 LU . 3 J (~ 0 m Z 2 H Q M 0’ o 8 % (¡) a 9 z ’5 < H z z W E (3 flc Z W 0 a .5 W c Q Q) # 0 m H u Q) z ’d ui ’s 2 C W a « If) 0 a z I m a Q) z < L Y^‘W LL M 0 3 z u 0 .02 P a) ~ ..: m o Q) E i1 lil E H r > 5 O C +’&dquo; 8 u. o g.- If)£ e: 9 173 174 175 ages in each interval. The largest absolute ages between 1979 and 1987 lived in a growth occurred in the RSFSR-15.2 mil- Muslim republic.3° The net increment to lion. The sharpest rise in the RSFSR oc- the working ages from a given region is the curred between 1970 and 1979. The in- difference between the number of people crease in population in the working ages in in that region entering the working ages the Muslim republics between 1959 and and the number leaving the working ages, 1987 -14.4 million - nearly equaled that whether through reaching pension age or of the RSFSR. In relative terms, the growth through death. The relatively young age of the working-age population in the composition of the populations of the Muslim republics-105.8 percent-far Muslim republics means that they account outstripped the growth in the RSFSR- for a very substantial share of the new 22.2 percent. entrants plus survivors in the working ages, Every region experienced growth in the even larger than their contribution of 50 number of persons above the working ages. percent of the net increment to the Soviet In both absolute and relative terms, the population as a whole between 1979 and largest increase - 12.8 million, or 92.3 per- 1989. cent - occurred in the RSFSR. But the rel- Another source of the increasing contri- ative growth was quite substantial in all bution of the Muslim republics to the work- regions except the Baltic. Even in the ing ages and to the population over the Muslim republics the number of persons working ages is high and increasing adult above working age increased by 77.2 per- male mortality in the European part of the cent between 1959 and 1987. The growth USSR, especially between age 40 and 60. of this number in the Baltic was probably Adult male mortality was especially high held down by the fact that its population in the RSFSR. In 1969-70, a male in the was relatively old even in 1959. RSFSR who had survived to age 40 had The Muslim republics are the only re- only a 75 percent chance of surviving to gion to experience substantial growth in all age 60. In Soviet Central Asia and Trans- three age segments between 1959 and caucasia, a 40-year-old man in 1969-70 1987. As a result, they are becoming an had an 86 percent chance of living to age increasingly large contributor to the net 60. The level of adult male mortality in the increments to the Soviet population in the RSFSR in 1969-70 was higher than in any working ages and above the working ages. other developed country. In 1985-86, the As shown in panel E of Table 4, in the chance that a 40-year-old male in the 1959-70 and 1970-79 intercensal periods, RSFSR would live to his sixtieth birthday the Muslim SSRs contributed about a third was still only 75 percent; however, the of the net additions to the working-age earlier worsening of adult male mortality population of the USSR. Between 1979 in the RSFSR had stopped. and 1987, however, the Muslim SSRs con- In contrast, in 1985-86 males in Arme- tributed three-fourths of the net increment nia experienced the lowest mortality of any to the working-age population of the republic population in the 40-60 age range. USSR. In that year, a 40-year-old male in Armenia This does not mean that three of every 30. Recall that, as shown in Figure 2a, only 32 four workers first the labor force entering percent of births in 1987 occurred in the Muslim comes from a Muslim republic. Only about republics. Moreover, only 25 percent of the 15- to one-fourth of new entrants to the working 19-year-olds in 1987 resided in the Muslim republics. 176 had an 86 percent chance of living to age Muslim republics. This presents certain 60. The reported mortality in Armenia for problems for the development of the Soviet adult males between the ages of 40 and 60 economy. The main problem is not the was comparable to that in the Federal Re- education and skill levels of population public of Germany in 1981-82 or Japan in from these republics. New entrants to the 1969-70, although it was lower than that of working ages from the Muslim republics American men in 1981-82.3’ are probably, on average, better educated than the workers who are leaving the labor CONCLUSION force through retirement or death. Instead, the problems relate to the location and mo- One lesson from this analysis is that the bility of the indigenous populations of the study of Soviet demographic behavior re- Muslim SSRs. The populations show little quires sensitivity to differences in behavior inclination to move from their traditional between regions and ethnic groups. These regions of settlement to areas that are ex- differences must be an important aspect of periencing labor shortages, and they usu- any attempt to explain the trends in the ally have poor command of the Russian behavior and composition of the Soviet language and hence cannot move to just population. any job for which their technical or other The ethnic differentials in rates of pop- skills qualify them. Moreover, since non- ulation growth that we have shown make indigenous populations seem to be depart- clear why so many issues in social policy ing from the Muslim republics, there is in the Soviet Union have different implica- even less incentive for the members of the tions for different ethnic groups. Pronatal- titular nationality to leave their home re- in ist policies the USSR, aimed primarily public in search of work or career opportu- at the non-Muslim groups, exist alongside nities or to improve their facility in the programs to reduce fertility among Muslim . women. School enrollments are holding The changing ethnic composition of So- steady or increasing moderately in much of viet regions - toward greater Russianiza- the USSR but growing rapidly in the tion of the European republics and greater Muslim areas. Increasing shares of con- indigenization of the non-European the of new scripts to armed forces and ones - is also important for understanding entrants to the labor force come from the the ethnic politics of the Soviet Union. In Muslim populations; decreasing shares the Baltic republics and Moldavia, leaders come from Russians and other non- of the Communist Party and of popular- Muslims. front movements have sought to limit the a of the net incre- Furthermore, majority in-migration of Russians in order to pre- ment to the labor force comes from the serve the culture and language of the titular 31. For further discussion, see Anderson and Sil- nationality and to assert greater local con- ver, "Sex Differentials"; idem, "Changing Shape." trol over the future economic and political The Central Asian republics report fairly low adult development of their republics. If the pol- male We think that this is a result mortality. partially of economic and of underreporting of mortality and overstatement of icy political continues to evolve to- age in Central Asia. See Anderson and Silver, "Chang- (&dquo;restructuring&dquo;) ing Shape." ward greater local autonomy, then these 177 non-Russian republics are likely to become indigenous nationalities was under way less hospitable to in-migrants from nontitu- well before Mikhail Gorbachev came to lar nationalities than they have been in the power in 1985. Further implementation of past. In most non-European republics, out- perestroika is likely to help sustain that migration of Russians and other non- tendency.