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Australian Climate Change Science Program Annual Report 2010-2011

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Australian Climate Change Science Program Annual Report 2010-2011 Australian ClimateChange ScienceProgram Annual Report 2010—2011 The Australian Climate Change Science Program – An Australian Government initiative. Annual Report 2010—2011 a ISBN 978 0 642 70625 5 The results and analyses contained in this publication are based on a number of technical, circumstantial or otherwise specified assumptions and parameters. To the extent permitted by law, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO exclude all liability to any party for expenses, losses, damages and costs arising directly or indirectly from using this publication. b Australian Climate Change Science Program Contents Foreword . 1. Vision . .2 About . .2 Working together . .2 National climate science priorities . 3 International collaboration . 3 Activities at a glance . 4. Science highlights at a glance . 4 The year in review . 7 Key climate challenge: Greenhouse gases . 7 Atmosphere . .9 Oceans and coasts . 11. Water . .15 An Australian climate modelling system . 19 Extremes . 21. Communication . .27 Appendix 1: Project list . 31. Appendix 2: Other partners . .32 Appendix 3: Peer-reviewed publications . 33 Appendix 4: Other publications . 40 Index . 43 This report was produced by Kathy Pullman and edited by Imogen Jubb, Communication Advisers, Australian Climate Change Science Program The Australian Climate Change Science Program – An Australian Government initiative. Annual Report 2010—2011 III IV Australian Climate Change Science Program Foreword The Australian Climate Change In 2010-11, more than 100 climate scientists throughout Australia worked on more than Science Program (ACCSP) has a 30 projects across seven program areas that major role in informing Australia’s addressed national climate priorities. As well key decision makers and as carrying out climate change research, the scientists presented their findings improving our understanding at workshops, conferences and many of the causes, nature, other local and international events. They timing and consequences published their findings in 147 peer-reviewed papers in Australian and international of climate change. publications and 45 other publications for workshops, conferences, and other events. The science undertaken by the ACCSP in the reporting year addressed the following themes: greenhouse gases, atmosphere, oceans and coasts, water, an Australian climate modelling system, extremes and communication. Outcomes of the science provided new, or supported existing, scientific evidence for human- induced climate change and improved our understanding of climate change. As well as undertaking world-class research, communicating the outcomes of climate science is an important objective of the ACCSP. This annual report includes a list of peer-reviewed publications from research conducted under the auspices of the ACCSP, along with media releases, Australia’s climate change websites and climate change video clips answering some commonly asked questions about climate change. We would like to acknowledge the key people and organisations that have made it possible for the ACCSP to deliver world-class climate change science for Australia. We thank our scientists and other staff who are passionate about what they do and who are committed to improving our understanding of climate change and the challenges ahead. We would also like to acknowledge the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, which has supported CSIRO and Mr Paul Holper Dr Robert Colman the Bureau of Meteorology as the providers of the climate science undertaken by the Manager, Climate Variability and Change Program, ACCSP. This collaboration has been critical in CSIRO, Australian Climate Centre for Australian Weather and helping Australia to understand the impacts Change Science Program Climate Research, of climate change, develop ways to adapt Bureau of Meteorology and to manage its carbon emissions. Annual Report 2010—2011 1 Vision About Working together To be a world-class provider of science- The Australian Climate Change Since 1989, the Australian Government based knowledge on climate change Science Program (ACCSP) is the has supported climate change research in the Southern Hemisphere. key Australian Government climate undertaken by CSIRO, the Bureau of change science program. Meteorology and other agencies. The world-class science carried out It does this mainly through the ACCSP, by the ACCSP informs Australia’s key which is a partnership between the decision makers and improves our Department of Climate Change and understanding of the causes, nature, timing Energy Efficiency (DCCEE), CSIRO and and consequences of climate change. the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The ACCSP plays a significant role in With co-investment by CSIRO and BoM, contributing to, and informing, public the ACCSP represented investment of policy and debate in climate change. approximately $15m in 2010-11 in research directed to meet the shared goals and Climate change science priorities of CSIRO, BoM, and DCCEE. These goals and priorities were advanced by the Science undertaken by the ACCSP focuses joint research program between CSIRO on the Southern Hemisphere because and BoM through the Centre for Australian most other climate change science is Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR). generated in the Northern Hemisphere and does not provide all the information needed for Australian decision making. In 2010-11, the ACCSP comprised 33 projects across the following program areas: 1. Global and regional carbon budgets 2. Land and air (observations and processes) 3. Oceans and coasts 4. Modes of climate variability and change 5. Earth system modelling and data integration 6. Predicting Australia’s future climate and its extremes 7. Communication and co-ordination. See Appendix 1 for a list of the ACCSP projects carried out in 2010-11. 2 Australian Climate Change Science Program National climate International science priorities collaboration Projects conducted under the ACCSP The Framework comprises The ACCSP ensures that Australian in 2010-11 aligned with the Australian four main elements: climate change science continues to Government’s priorities for climate system be recognised internationally by: • challenges (what we need to understand science. The Australian Government’s and predict future climate changes) • Investing in high-quality climate change National Framework for Climate Change research that contributes to high- Science (the Framework) describes national • capabilities (what we need to maintain quality peer-reviewed publications in climate science priorities needed to address or develop to meet the challenges) national and international journals; the climate change issues facing us over • people and infrastructure (what the coming decades. The Framework • Citation of our publications in the skills and infrastructure we need to guides climate change research so that it Assessment Reports produced support the capabilities); and can help Australia understand the impacts by the Intergovernmental Panel of climate change, develop ways to adapt • implementation (national co- on Climate Change (IPCC); and manage its carbon emissions. ordination and investment). • Funding scientists to contribute to important More information about The Framework can bilateral and multilateral relationships be found at www.climatechange.gov.au. between Australia and other countries; • Supporting Australia’s participation in international research, and our influence in international research priorities through such bodies as the World Climate Figure 1. The Australian Research Programme and the International Government’s National Geosphere-Biosphere Programme; and Framework for Climate Change Science is designed • Supporting the Global Carbon Project, to address the climate which aims to develop a comprehensive change issues facing us policy-relevant understanding over the coming decade. of the global carbon cycle. Annual Report 2010—2011 3 Activities at a glance Table 1. ACCSP activities in 2010-11 What How many Page Key climate change challenges 7 31 Program areas 7 31 Projects 33 32 Other partners – national 12 33 Other partners – international 21 33 Peer-reviewed publications 147 35 Other publications 45 42 Media releases 24 29 Websites 7 30 Video clips 6 31 Science highlights at a glance Table 2. In 2010-11, the ACCSP delivered outcomes that addressed the key national climate change challenges: Key climate Research Target outcomes Highlights Pages challenge program area Greenhouse Global & regional • A synthesis of the Australian • Carbon budget modelling has 7-8 gases carbon budgets terrestrial carbon balance found that Australia’s plant carbon • Monitoring of the evolution of multiple uptake is highly variable Quantifying sources and sinks of carbon dioxide • Revised and new data show a 20% decrease changes to the and the permissible emissions to of net emissions from land use change carbon cycle in the achieve given temperature targets Australian region • Measurements of ice cores from Law Dome and globally • Measurements of greenhouse in Antarctica show significant changes gases and their tracer during the Little Ice Age cool period (about compounds back in time 1600 -1800 AD), implying that a small • Upgrading of the models of air component (about 20 ppm) of the carbon movement and enclosure in the dioxide increase over the past century firn (compacted snow) and ice was due to climate-carbon feedbacks • Interpretation of the measured changes by developing the CSIRO climate and carbon models Atmosphere Land and air • Research programs at the
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