(1,1) -1- NCCARF emergency brochure_G cover.indd 11/05/10 12:27 PM

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management (1,1) -2- NCCARF emergency brochure_G cover.indd 11/05/10 12:27 PM

Authors: Tony Pearce (Emergency Management Australia) (Chair, writing team) John Handmer (RMIT University) John Higgins (Department of Climate Change) David King (James Cook University) Jan McDonald (Griffi th University) Frank Pagano (Emergency Management Queensland) John Schneider (Geoscience Australia) Penny Whetton (CSIRO) NCCARF Secretariat: Marie Waschka (NCCARF) Frank Stadler (NCCARF) Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Email nccarf@griffi th.edu.au Website www.nccarf.edu.au The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility hosted by Griffi th University is an initiative of, and funded by, the Australian Government, with additional funding from the Queensland Government, Griffi th University, Macquarie University, Queensland University of Technology, James Cook University, The University of Newcastle, Murdoch University, University of Southern Queensland, and University of The Sunshine Coast. The role of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision-makers in government and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risks of climate change impacts. Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth, and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained within. This publication should be cited as: Pearce T, Handmer J, Higgins J, King D, McDonald J, Pagano F, Schneider J, Whetton P, 2009: National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency Management. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 44pp. ISBN 978-1-921609-02-2 © Copyright National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2010 NCCARF Publication 01/10 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Contents

Executive Summary 4

1. Context and objectives 6 1.1 Introduction 6 1.2 Context of this Plan 7 1.3 Scope 9 1.4 Links to, and synergies with, other National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans 10 2. Key stakeholders and their information needs 12

3. Existing knowledge and gap analysis 14 3.1 Climate change science 14 3.2 Risk analysis 14 3.3 Policy and practice 15 3.4 Information needs 15 4. Priority research topics 16 4.1 Understanding risk 16 4.1.1 Where and how are changes in climate going to put us at greatest risk? 17 4.1.2 What tools are needed to enable decision-making under future climate uncertainty? 20 4.2 Community and organisational resilience 20 4.2.1 What does community resilience mean in a changing climate? 21 4.2.2 What practices and processes promote community preparedness and preventive strategies in a changing climate? 22 4.2.3 What are the most effective strategies to ensure that individuals, governments and the private sector adopt better practices in preparing for the increased risk to communities, business operations or critical infrastructure arising from climate change? 24 4.3 Adaptive strategies 27 4.3.1 How will climate change affect the emergency management sector’s capacity to support preparedness, response and recovery? 27 4.3.2 What is the role of the private sector in adaptation through emergency management? 28 4.4 Regional implications 29 4.4.1 How will the climate change adaptive capacity of other countries, particularly those in the Pacifi c region, impact upon the Australian emergency management system and Australian fi re and emergency service organisations? 29 4.5 Research prioritisation 31

2 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 5. Implementation Plan 33 5.1 Existing research capacity 33 5.2 Potential collaborations 33 5.3 Additional funding sources 34 6. References and further reading 36

Appendix 1 Criteria for setting research priorities in National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans 39

Appendix 2 Research prioritisation matrix for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency Management 40

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 3 1. Background Executive Summary

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, including cyclones, storms, drought, heat waves, bushfi res and fl ooding, with varying degrees of uncertainty about projections for specifi c hazards. Emergency management organisations are on society’s front line in preparing for such events, in preventing the worst forms of damage and harm when they occur, and in managing the post-event recovery phase. A full understanding of – and preparation for – the risks from climate change, which would inform the adaptation options available to communities to reduce or recover from those risks, requires more than a simple multiplying of existing emergency management capabilities. When natural disasters occur, the consequences of damage and loss are a function of the effectiveness of the disaster mitigation strategies that have been implemented, the activities of the emergency services, and the resilience of the communities and economic sectors affected. Planning for the increased risks from climate change is still in its early stages within Australia’s emergency management sectors. Research is needed to inform the way in which the various sectors respond to climate change across the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) range of organisations and activities, whilst considering all hazards and key vulnerable groups. Some work has been done in this area, but adaptation research is not well developed in the fi eld of emergency management. The purpose of this Plan is to identify the research priorities that might help Australian governments and communities respond to extreme events for which disaster planning, preparedness and response may be required. In conjunction with National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans in other priority thematic areas, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency Management will guide researchers engaged in generating the information that Australia needs in order to develop an effective and equitable portfolio of adaptive strategies.The Plan identifi es three overarching strands to the research agenda for Emergency Management: 1. understanding the nature and location of the risks posed by climate change; 2. enhancing community and organisational resilience to climate change risks; 3. developing and implementing adaptive strategies. A number of critical information needs and research gaps are identifi ed under each sub-theme. Ranking research needs into high and low priority is diffi cult, given that many aspects of research are not directly comparable and time-frames vary. Priorities were developed using the following criteria:

Essential . severity of potential impact/degree of potential benefi t; . immediacy of required intervention/response; . need to change current intervention/practicality of intervention.

Desirable . potential for co-benefi ts; . potential to address multiple, including cross-sectoral, issues; . distribution and equity of the perceived benefi ts of any adaptation strategy. Applying these criteria, the following priorities were identifi ed around four themes:

4 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Priority research questions for Emergency Management

Understanding risk Priority . Where and how are changes in climate going to put us at greatest risk? Very High – High

. What tools are needed to enable decision-making under future High climate uncertainty?

Community and organisational resilience Priority . What does community resilience mean in a changing climate? Medium

. What behaviours promote community preparedness and preventive High – Medium strategies in a changing climate?

. What are the most effective strategies to ensure that individuals, governments Very High – High and the private sector adopt better practices in preparing for the increased risk to communities, business operations or critical infrastructure arising from climate change?

Adaptive strategies Priority . How will climate change affect the emergency management sector’s Very High – High capacity to support preparedness, response and recovery?

. What is the role of the private sector in adaptation through High emergency management?

Regional implications Priority . How will the climate change adaptive capacity of other countries, particularly Medium those in the Pacifi c region, impact upon the Australian disaster management system and Australian fi re and emergency service organisations?

Implementation A detailed Implementation Plan has been prepared outlining budget, research capability and resource issues, and funding opportunities relevant to the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan. The Adaptation Research Network for Emergency Management will play a critical role in implementing the Research Plan, and will contribute greatly to building collaboration, information-sharing and research capacity across the Australian research community.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 5 1. Context and objectives

1.1 Introduction vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risks of climate change impacts. There is now widespread acceptance that A key role of the Facility is to coordinate the human activities are contributing signifi cantly development of National Climate Change to climate change, and that this change is Adaptation Research Plans (NARPs) to identify producing signifi cant physical effects. It is also critical gaps in the information needed by generally acknowledged that some of these sectoral decision-makers and to set national effects are now either present or inevitable, research priorities. These Plans are being and that their impacts will become more severe developed in partnership with governments, if we do nothing to modify our behaviours. stakeholders and researchers. There are two main themes to such The objective of the National Climate Change modifi cation. Mitigation strategies involve Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency actions that are intended to reduce the Management is to identify priority research magnitude of our contribution to climate to enhance community and organisational change (primarily by reducing greenhouse gas resilience to the risks posed by climate emissions) or offset or reverse its effects (for change from the perspective of emergency example, by establishing and maintaining forest management. Three overarching strands of areas). Adaptation strategies involve actions in research are identifi ed to meet this objective: response to changes that are either inevitable or likely. Adaptation is clearly the overriding . understanding the nature and location priority for emergency service management of risks posed by climate change; organisations, to enable them to work with . identifying the most effective communities to manage these threats. means to enhance community and organisational resilience; A full understanding of the risks from climate change and the adaptation options available . developing adaptive strategies with which to communities to reduce or recover from those to respond to climate change for use by the community and emergency services. risks requires more than a simple multiplying of existing emergency management capabilities. The identifi cation of research priorities will enable Research will need to inform the way in which local, state and federal governments and other the sector responds to climate change across research investors to fund research over the the prevention, preparedness, response and next 5–7 years that can deliver maximum benefi t recovery (PPRR) range of organisations and to the Australian community and provide a activities, and the way it considers all hazards. broad framework for longer-term research Whilst some work has been done in this area, planning. The priority research needs for adaptation research is not well developed in emergency management are set out in the fi eld of emergency management. Section 4.5. The full prioritisation matrix The purpose of this Plan is to identify the is presented in Appendix 2. research priorities that might help Australian In conjunction with Research Plans in other governments and communities in responding priority thematic areas, this Plan will guide to extreme events for which disaster planning, researchers in generating the information that preparedness and response may be required. Australia needs in order to develop an effective The National Climate Change Adaptation and equitable portfolio of adaptive strategies. Research Facility, established by the Australian The Adaptation Research Network for Government and hosted by Griffi th University, Emergency Management will play a critical aims to lead the Australian research community role in implementing the Plan, and will in generating the biophysical, social contribute greatly to building collaboration, and economic information needed by information-sharing and research capacity decision-makers in government and in across the Australian research community.

6 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management The objective of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency Management is to identify priority research to enhance community and organisational resilience to the risks posed by climate change from the perspective of emergency management.

The development of the Plan for Emergency regulation sectors of society and government, Management was led by the writing team: rather than in emergency management itself. Tony Pearce (Chair) In urban development, it has become increasingly (Emergency Management Australia) common to trade off increased risks from climatic hazards, such as fl oods and fi re, against John Handmer (RMIT University) improved emergency management. John Higgins (Department of Climate Change) The increased risks from climate change arise David King (James Cook University) in the context of a range of other pressures Jan McDonald (Griffi th University) on, and drivers of change in, emergency Frank Pagano management which have not, to date, (Emergency Management Queensland) been consciously planned for. Some of this is John Schneider (Geoscience Australia) a result of uncertainty and lack of knowledge. Inevitably, fi re and emergency services agencies, Penny Whetton (CSIRO) the community and business sector, Frank Stadler (NCCARF – Secretariat) governments at all levels and the insurance Marie Waschka (NCCARF – Secretariat). industry must deal with these risks. The writing team developed this Plan following Emergency services have shown that they are a national workshop for key stakeholders and adaptive to change, both ongoing and projected. lead researchers, whose input provided valuable There has been signifi cant new emphasis on insights into the information needs and research training and up-skilling in areas outside of their priorities in the fi eld. direct experience, for instance for dealing with the consequences of security/terror events, based purely on revised threat assessments. 1.2 Context of this Plan Bushfi re management has progressed signifi cantly in the past decade, consequent This Plan refers to the emergency management upon several major events in south-eastern sector, including emergency service organisations, Australia, and with additional resourcing and encompassing prevention, preparedness, improved knowledge arising from research response and recovery. It adopts the defi nition and innovation. Some emergency services can of emergency management endorsed by respond to increased demand with their current Emergency Management Australia (EMA), namely: workforce. Where additional funding is provided Organisation and management of resources to enable emergency services to provide new or for dealing with all aspects of emergencies. expanded services, they have demonstrated a Emergency management involves the capacity to embrace change and expand their plans, structures and arrangements which capabilities accordingly. are established to bring together the Climate change creates new imperatives for normal endeavours of government, voluntary risk reduction and management. Governments and private agencies in a comprehensive already have powerful risk reduction tools and coordinated way to deal with the whole available to counter the most obvious risks that spectrum of emergency needs including climate change presents, including land-use prevention, response and recovery (EMA, 1998). planning and building control. Risk modelling When climatic phenomena occur, can highlight the need to amend or upgrade the consequences in damage and loss are these tools. Other well-understood adaptive a function of the effectiveness of the disaster mechanisms such as community skilling and reduction strategies that have been implemented, warning systems can be brought into play in the activities of the emergency services, and the new locations or with additional emphasis in resilience of the communities and economic existing locations. The implementation of such sectors affected. Much of the work in preventing strategies would also have the immediate benefi t disasters lies in the planning and building of reducing the existing risk of severe weather

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 7 1. Context and objectives

emergencies. New approaches and expertise Research is helping to reduce this uncertainty, should enhance this current suite of risk but we also need to understand how effective reduction strategies and allow us to identify decisions can be made in the presence of new ways of reducing the impacts of projected uncertainty, some of which is irreducible. changes in the frequency and severity of The use of socio-economic scenarios offers extreme weather events. one approach. Little work on developing Climate change increases the already socio-economic scenarios development has been pervasive uncertainty that confronts emergency done in Australia, so their use has been limited management arising from, among other things, compared with the UK’s Foresight Future Flooding high levels of inter-annual variability. There is study and some of the detailed sector studies considerable disparity in the certainty with carried out in northern Europe (Foresight, 2004). which various impacts are projected to occur: The issues of organisational capacity, response to . Heat waves: high level of certainty of existing risks, and dealing with uncertainty are set increased frequency and intensity. within a broader policy and research initiatives . Fire danger: strong evidence that south-eastern context that informs this Plan. The Council of Australia will experience an increase in Australian Governments (COAG) and other bodies frequency of high fi re risk days, with uncertainty have considered the potential impact of climate about the magnitude of change. change on future natural disasters (COAG, 2002, . Rising sea levels and storm surge events: 2004; Middelmann, 2007), and the potential for high level of certainty of some sea level rise catastrophic events caused by natural phenomena resulting from thermal expansion, but rate and (COAG, 2004). Adaptation initiatives have not extent of rise caused by ice melt uncertain. been a part of these analyses to any great extent. . Storm surge affected by intensity of storms: The work already done provides an existing less certainty over extent and frequency. knowledge base about natural hazard risks and . Rainfall events: high level of agreement that impacts upon which to build, but adaptation some areas will become drier, and some needs will be strongly place-based, requiring both areas will be likely to experience intensifi ed national- and state-level systems and institutional rainfall events and therefore suffer an arrangements, combined with location-specifi c increased risk of fl ooding, but uncertainty strategies and interventions. over which areas will be affected and how. . Tropical cyclones: considerable uncertainty There is considerable expertise and several remains over climate change impacts on the mechanisms addressing risks under current location, frequency and severity of tropical climatic conditions both nationally and in the cyclones; however, there are likely to be states and territories, but these need to be more intense events. augmented to capture the additional level of risk . Changes in hail: signifi cant uncertainty over associated with climate change. An indicative list the potential for hail events to increase in of policy and planning processes completed or some regions. under way is set out in Table 1.

This National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency Management identifi es critical gaps in the information needed by decision-makers, emergency management agencies and the community, sets research priorities based on these gaps, and identifi es capacity that could be harnessed to conduct priority research.

8 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Table 1. Policy and planning processes currently completed or under way in Australia Processes and organisational arrangements . Australian Emergency Management Committee (AEMC) National Risk Assessment Advisory Group . National Risk Assessment Guidelines Project for Emergency Management

Policies and plans . AEMC is initiating a process for the development of a Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the emergency management sector . National Risk Assessment Framework and Guidelines adopted by the (AEMC)

Risk assessments . Australian Government Natural Disaster Mitigation Program . First-pass National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment . South East Queensland Regional Plan: Climate Change Risk Assessment

Research initiatives . Australian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council: CRC1 Fire – Environment and Society . Five national research projects established under the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change ‘Impacts on Urban Settlements’ sub-program focused on climate change impacts and adaptation response

1.3 Scope . assist in understanding the trade-offs between options, ranging from warning systems and This National Climate Change Adaptation emergency responses to improved land-use Research Plan for Emergency Management planning and enhanced building design and identifi es critical gaps in the information needed by decision-makers, emergency management construction in prevention/reduction of risk, agencies and the community, sets research as well as the role of risk transfer alternatives priorities based on these gaps, and identifi es including insurance and government relief; capacity that could be harnessed to conduct . assist in understanding how hazard, priority research. vulnerability and exposure and related The Plan identifi es research topics aimed at psycho-social infl uences combine to informing emergency management planning for infl uence risk and how this understanding climate change adaptation across the range of can be used to develop the most effective PPRR organisations and activities. It identifi es risk reduction measures; research required to: . improve information about the impacts of . understand what changes are needed severe weather events (e.g., bushfi res and to improve the effectiveness of existing heat waves) on population and infrastructure, engagement strategies, including including through better understanding of understanding how communities arrive responsiveness and sensitivity of emergency at an ‘acceptable level of risk’; management decision-making to improved . communicate and characterise climate information, enhanced sharing and change in ways relevant to the sector; application of baseline data and changing . develop ideas, policies and options for risks due to climate change; adaptation in the context of disasters and . design better systems and mechanisms for emergencies, given the high level of uncertainty forecasting the impacts of severe weather of climatic projections and potential impacts; events to aid response and recovery activity; . inform the revision of building design and . develop mechanisms for integrating construction standards, particularly in areas where storm, fl ood frequency/magnitude, (‘mainstreaming’) adaptation considerations and bushfi res are most likely to increase; relevant to disaster and emergency . inform land-use planning strategies to reduce management across portfolios and agencies exposure to increased natural hazards, such of government; as in areas exposed to coastal storm surge . understand the implications for changes in and erosion, bushfi re and fl ooding; responsibilities and liabilities.

1 Cooperative Research Centre

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 9 1. Context and objectives

While enhanced understanding of these issues in the context of potential damage to buildings should assist emergency managers in making and infrastructure from severe storms, fl oods on-the-ground decisions, it must also be and bushfi res, and the need to put in place or acknowledged that the work of emergency improve efforts to minimise damage, including management is greatly affected by the activities early warning systems. To the extent that of other sectors. These include urban planning, the physical damage and cost of severe energy, transport and water infrastructure, and events (and ultimately the social impact) can public health strategies. This National Climate be reduced through better land-use planning, Change Adaptation Research Plan acknowledges building codes, and infrastructure design, the importance of close linkages with these other these two themes are complementary. sectors, but seeks to identify the research Social, Economic and Institutional priorities that are specifi c to the emergency Dimensions: Economic analyses that are used management domain. for disaster loss assessment and prediction need to capture the potential damage to 1.4 Links to, and synergies with, buildings and infrastructure, as well as potential casualties, crop damage, and other other National Climate Change environmental impacts. It is only through Adaptation Research Plans a holistic approach that we will be able to understand the implications of changes in Just as the work of emergency management magnitude and frequency of severe events organisations is strongly affected by the activities and develop the best adaptation strategies. of other sectors and agencies, so too are there clear overlaps between this and research Human Health: Ambulance services are part of the emergency services portfolio in some priorities in other National Climate Change Australian jurisdictions and of the health portfolio Adaptation Research Plan thematic areas. in others. Ambulance services and the broader Some potential areas of synergy or common health sector will be benefi ciaries of adaptation interest are set out below and will be developed research addressing risk reduction that might in the implementation of each NARP. reduce the potential for casualties in extreme (or Settlements and Infrastructure: There is severe) events, especially in coastal areas, where signifi cant synergy with this theme, particularly both the population at risk and the likelihood of

This National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan acknowledges the importance of close linkages with other sectors, but seeks to identify the research priorities that are specifi c to the emergency management domain.

10 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management such events are likely to increase, leading to both also critical to appropriate emergency response acute and chronic health effects. Heat stress and and recovery. Plant and animal pest/disease changed disease impacts on populations are also outbreaks can also be concerns of the concerns of the emergency management sector. emergency management sector. On the other The preparedness of Australia’s health systems hand, land management agencies have an for extreme weather events is a specifi c priority important role to play in leading adaptation in the of the NARP for Human Health. primary industries sector, including by minimising bushfi re risks and exposure to drought. Water Resources and Freshwater Biodiversity: The social and economic impacts Terrestrial Biodiversity: Natural systems of changes in water resources are issues for are especially vulnerable to the introduction and emergency management to the extent that these spread of invasive species following damaging issues are either exacerbated by severe events natural events such as bushfi res or cyclones. or make severe events more likely. For instance, A key recommendation of the Biodiversity while drought has historically been considered as Advisory Committee ’s 2008 report on Climate being part of natural variability (i.e., not a hazard), Change and Invasive Species (Low, 2008) the changes in frequency and distribution of was that policy frameworks be developed that drought are likely to fall outside the historically anticipate the invasive risks posed by cyclones, ‘normal’ range. This also has implications for fl oods and other extreme events. It suggested, specifi c emergency response functions such as fi rst, that scenario planning be used to predict the fi re-fi ghting, which can be severely compromised outcomes of different events on different regions when water supplies are depleted. Issues related to and, second, that planning activities consider fl ood management are also relevant in this context. which actions have the potential to promote invasions after extreme events, and generate Primary Industries: Severe storms and tropical plans to reduce the risks. Emergency plans for cyclones often damage agriculture. For example, cyclones and fl oods should include protocols for Tropical Cyclone Larry extensively wiped preventing the spread of weed seeds and other out crops in far north Queensland in 2006. invasive organisms during rescue and clean-up The impact analyses required for emergency operations. Pest control and hygiene practices of management can provide insights into potential fi re crews, especially when operating in national crop damage; knowledge of such damage is parks, are also relevant here.

Victorian emergency services plan strategies at the Kilmore East-Murrindindi bushfi re, February 2009. Image: CFA Public Affairs/Keith Pakenham.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 11 2. Key stakeholders and their information needs

There are two key groups of stakeholders . recovery agencies and non-government involved in the development of this organisations, such as the Red Cross, Research Plan. Salvation Army, Australian Emergency Management Volunteer Forum (AEMVF), The fi rst are the end-users of research volunteer agencies and community undertaken in accordance with the Plan. organisations; These are individuals and organisations . the Bureau of Meteorology, as the (including government agencies) who make predominant authority responsible for the or implement decisions relating to emergency development of effective warning systems management. This group includes: and the communication of warning messages . Commonwealth, state and territory to the community emergency management organisations; . managers of land and assets potentially . peak groups such as the Australian affected by extreme events, including national Emergency Management Committee parks and forestry services. and its Advisory Groups, the Australian These individuals, organisations and agencies Council of State Emergency Services, are likely to require, among other things, a better the Planning Institute of Australia, the Council understanding of: of Ambulance Authorities and the Police . the institutions, policies and practices Commissioners’ Conference; for emergency management that are . the insurance and re-insurance industry; more appropriate for a changing climate . local governments, and planning and regime, including the responsiveness development control agencies, including and sensitivity of their decision-making catchment management authorities; to improved information;

Task force briefi ng. Image: NSW State Emergency Service/Erin Pogmore.

12 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management . the probability of rare events (e.g. Category 5 A second major group are the researchers and cyclones) for Australian communities and how funding bodies that will undertake or fund the spatial patterns and frequencies may change; priority research identifi ed in the Plan, although . the vulnerability, resilience and adaptive it is highly likely that a large proportion of the capacity of communities (damage potential, research will be co-generated in partnership physical and psychological casualties, social with stakeholder agencies. and economic costs, environmental impacts, The role of the National Climate Change infrastructure system dependencies and Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency social networks); Management is to ensure that the target . the effects of climate change on existing audience can make decisions based on the risk profi les for events such as bushfi res, outcomes of appropriate and relevant research; fl ooding, cyclones, storm surges, wind for research investors to make informed and hail damage, particularly in and around research funding decisions; and for researchers major urban centres and areas of high to understand the broader context in which to biodiversity value; organise their research activities. . the compounding effects of sea level rise on coastal erosion and storm surge; . the compounding effects on climate change impacts of demographic, economic and social changes which are already increasing coastal exposure and vulnerability.

Queensland Fire & Rescue Service fi re training exercise. Image: Queensland Department of Community Safety/Michael Marston.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 13 3. Existing knowledge and gap analysis

No broad overview exists of the state of The major gap in climate change knowledge climate adaptation in emergency management. for adaptation policy and practice concerns There is now increasing interest and discussion the specifi cs of changes in location and about adaptation to climate change in likelihood (or frequency) of extremes, Australia, but actual implementation is very and the extent to which further science will limited. In general, it is fair to say that there is reduce these uncertainties in useful ways. relatively little treatment of the issue in the Climate change science and knowledge peer-reviewed literature – meaning that the of extremes will continue to be poorly quality assurance processes are uncertain for understood for the foreseeable future. much of the material. Research fi ndings are scattered and have not been synthesised. 3.2 Risk analysis This is partly because most studies have been done in a developing-country context, and Risk analysis and management is fundamental partly because different sectors and disciplines to emergency management. Following normal have undertaken their own work in isolation Australian practice in the emergency from others. management fi eld, risk is defi ned as a function One convenient way of considering adaptation of the hazard, exposure to that hazard, research in the emergency management and vulnerability or susceptibility to harm sector is to use a three-way classifi cation: and ability to recover. Most emergency (i) climate change science, (ii) risk analysis, management publications use the approach of and (iii) policy and practice. The fi rst category, Australian Standard 4360 Risk Management. climate change science, is the only area where Science provides information on the hazard there has been a strong national research (natural phenomenon), and a range of research effort in Australia. The second and third areas informs the issues of exposure and the are those where research and knowledge are vulnerability of communities and economies. more limited, especially when it is appreciated A long-running research program on that much of the published work refers to community risk is under way at Geoscience developing countries. Australia. Some of this work is summarised in The following summary draws on an their publication Natural Hazards in Australia: annotated bibliography prepared by the EMA Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements Institute (2008), literature from the Canadian (Middelmann, 2007). Other groups are also and Finnish adaptation research networks, active in documenting risk from natural and the knowledge of the writing team. hazards; for example, Macquarie University’s Risk Frontiers and James Cook University’s Centre for Disaster Studies and Cyclone 3.1 Climate change science Testing Station. Engineering groups and related organisations such as the Australian Building A thorough review of the state of the science Codes Board are actively involved in research coordinated by the IPCC suggests that further changes in climate are inevitable, regardless on structures and infrastructure. Many of any future success in controlling global government and research organisations are greenhouse gas emissions. Importantly for undertaking or coordinating research into the emergency management, we also know that risks associated with climate change; for small changes in average temperatures are example, the Department of Climate Change, likely to lead, and in many parts of the world the Council of Australian Governments (COAG), have already led, to substantial changes in the WA Fire and Emergency Services Authority, extremes, with fewer frosts, more heat the Bushfi re CRC and the NSW Fire Brigades. waves, droughts, bushfi res and storms. A detailed study has been produced on the A signifi cant scientifi c literature exists for likely impacts of climate change on bushfi re risk each type of climatic phenomenon and its (Lucas et al., 2007) and there are also reports negative impacts.

14 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management One convenient way of considering adaptation research in the emergency management sector is to use a three-way classifi cation: (i) climate change science, (ii) risk analysis, and (iii) policy and practice.

on the potential changes in risk from heat waves, than directly contributing to policy development droughts, sea level rise and cyclones. or implementation. An important exception is work on the economic and fi nancial aspects In spite of these and similar reports, knowledge of a carbon economy – but this is of limited of the risks remains limited. In particular, value for adapting to the implications of vulnerability assessment is at a relatively climate change for emergency management. early stage of development. While estimating Within this category, there is research directed exposure may appear straightforward, there is at adaptation for specifi c hazards, and research much room for improvement in terms of the supporting more generic approaches best consequences cascading through society. described as building resilient communities and Trends in how future climate change will affect sectors (e.g., Handmer and Dovers, 2007). the incidence and severity of disasters are poorly understood. This makes it risky to rely on the A major diffi culty is that most existing policy past as a guide to good practice. Much of the processes – including underlying institutional existing research is of limited use for policy. arrangements, statute law, policy instruments, Little of the research in these areas explicitly and public administration mechanisms – addresses climate change adaptation within the demand a sound knowledge base, so there is context of psychological, social, demographic a strong need for processes that can cope with and economic trends. An exception is the UK’s the very high levels of uncertainty associated Foresight Future Flooding study (Foresight, with climate change. 2004). Research reports from a Canadian climate change adaptation program examine 3.4 Information needs rural vulnerability in depth, as does an unpublished report for the Victorian Department Information management and a knowledge of Sustainability and Environment. In summary, management system, including relevant some material exists, but it is scattered databases, that allow for an integrated throughout different disciplines and sectors. assessment of issues, will enhance the capacity of emergency management organisations to 3.3 Policy and practice adapt effectively to the impact of climate change. Such an information management Even though there are many gaps and system would need to be compatible with weaknesses in research and knowledge in others that already exist, in order to allow for the categories set out above, they appear the effective sharing of information. to be relatively well covered compared with An important issue is who gathers, research to support adaptation policy and organises and imposes quality control and implementation instruments. Research that makes accessible (or not) information of is related to, or directly supports, policy and relevance to adaptation, especially when the actions to address the risks from general goal is coordination across sectors and climatic phenomena – in the absence of agencies. A mechanism is needed to ensure climate change – is very limited. However, that such a database is populated in a there is considerable literature in the social systematic way, so as to avoid having and health sciences dealing with psychological incomplete databases that are diffi cult to work and social adaptation, behavioural and lifestyle with. We cannot simply wait for research to adjustments, and psychosocial impact provide solutions for practitioners to apply. assessment and intervention (e.g., Evans, 2001; Rather, we need to accept that an adaptive and Evans and Stecker, 2004; Lima, 2004). iterative management approach is needed that Much of the research considered to be can utilise information as it becomes available. policy-relevant is more about revisiting the A consistent approach to the storage and science of climate change, and examining presentation of information will contribute to its implications in terms of likely impacts, this goal.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 15 4. Priority research topics

This section sets out the research priorities . the frequency and intensity of the hazard identifi ed by the writing team after consultation (including spatial extent and duration); with stakeholders and researchers. The section . community exposure and the relationship is organised around four sub-themes: with stressors such as demographic change; (i) understanding risk, (ii) community and . vulnerability related to socio-economic factors organisational resilience, (iii) adaptive strategies, such as future individual wealth, building and (iv) regional implications; followed by a discussion of the overarching issues that need stock and community awareness, and to be considered when setting research their interactions; priorities. Within each sub-theme, specifi c . impacts that result from the interaction research questions are articulated, followed of those components; by an explanation of the question and an . the resilience of communities, particularly elaboration of the research that will be needed vulnerable communities and groups, to plan in order to answer that question. for, prepare for, respond to, and recover from these impacts.

4.1 Understanding risk Measuring and communicating uncertainty in Risks associated with natural disasters will risk is also essential because we cannot provide change as the climate changes. This presents accurate projections of future climate change. a challenge to natural disaster managers and Moreover, uncertainty about the likelihood of emergency services. These must now adjust impacts changes the distribution of risk. to a constantly changing risk profi le and accept A range of factors infl uence how emergency that historical information about climate-related management agencies respond to risk. hazards is no longer an adequate basis for understanding current and future risk. One factor is their understanding of that risk. An appreciation of the risk from climate-related Properly used, better information about climate hazards requires an understanding of both the change risk can help inform the activities of current or baseline risk and how climate change organisations across the PPRR spectrum, varies that risk. Current risk from climate-related including the health system. This section hazards is derived from the following factors: considers the following questions:

Risks associated with natural disasters will change as the climate changes. This presents a challenge to natural disaster managers and emergency services.

16 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 1. Where and how are changes in climate going Understanding the changed risk of natural to put us at greatest risk? hazards will involve estimating how the 2. What tools are needed to enable frequency and intensity of climate events that decision-making under future climate give rise to natural hazards are likely to change. uncertainty? This, in turn, will require regional information about specifi c climate parameters, since Research questions related to community different risks are likely to arise in different and organisational resilience are discussed locations (e.g., cyclones in the north of Australia, in Section 4.2. or extreme heat in inland areas).

4.1.1 Where an d how are changes in The possibility that climate change will lead to climate going to put us at greatest risk? new risks must also be considered. New risks might arise through the extension of existing Context hazards to new locations. For example, the There is little argument today that atmospheric cyclone hazard along the Queensland coastline

CO2 levels and mean temperatures are rising, is expected to change in future, with increased but the extent to which this may affect the frequency of cyclones further south towards more frequency, magnitude and location of extreme populated areas (similarly in Western Australia at events (i.e., the hazard) remains unclear. higher latitudes). Although some research is Even less clear is how these changes in the directed towards these issues, we do not have hazard will lead to greater impact in terms of answers at present for this important new source physical, economic, social and environmental of risk to major urban areas. consequences (i.e., risk). Accordingly, New risks might also arise through the research is needed to enable us to translate signifi cantly increased probability of two our knowledge of climate change into an natural disasters occurring at the same understanding of the risk, to develop more time, exhausting the resources required for accurate estimates of the risk, with a focus on response and recovery. The implications of those elements where the level of risk is likely combined events must be considered when to exceed acceptable thresholds for emergency planning response strategies that assume an management and/or where the greatest ability to mobilise resources from neighbouring adaptation may be required. regions – or even overseas – to assist with emergency management.

North Eastern Victoria underwater in the fl oods of October 1993. Image: Sandi Mason.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 17 4. Priority research topics

The notion of what constitutes acceptable to better understand how basic information levels of risk must also be addressed in order about climate or weather can be translated to gauge trade-offs between economic costs into a spatial description of the distribution and social outrage. of hailstones, severe wind, storm waves or water depth. Research response . Impact domain: the direct damage to There are two strands to the research response, property or people and the resulting social both of which have relevance beyond the disruption and economic loss that constitute emergency management sector and can a disaster. For instance, we need to better contribute to policy- and decision-making understand (and develop predictive models across a range of thematic priority areas. for) the relationship between the physical description of a fl ood event and the resulting 1. Setting the baseline: assessing damages and losses. (This relationship current risk between the imposed hazard and the Firstly, our understanding of future risk can be resulting impact is referred to as vulnerability.) enhanced by a better understanding of current Better monitoring of hazard parameters risk (risk under current or historically recent (e.g., anemometers for wind, fl ow gauges for climate conditions). This may require water) and research into factors that contribute improvement to models to better understand to damage or loss will provide critical data to such factors as the relationship between wind assist in understanding these risks. speed and building damage, or the way in which wind speeds are modifi ed over complex terrain. 2. Climate change-induced risk This research strand needs to focus on With enhanced understanding of the current risk environment, research can be directed developing a better understanding of information to capture the additional risk associated with in the hazard and impact domains: climate change, as compounded by . Hazard domain: the detailed characteristics demographic and other changes in exposure of an event in terms of the spatial distribution or vulnerability. For example, in areas of and intensity of the attributes that cause high potential impact due to high population, damage to people or property. For instance, signifi cant infrastructure or vulnerable for a severe storm event, research is required communities, we need to understand

Dropping fi re retardant, Swifts Creek, Vic, February 2009. Image: CFA Public Affairs/Noel McWilliams.

18 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management the differential change in existing risk arising We can deepen our understanding of from changes in the severity, frequency and the vulnerabilities by analysing current or timing of extreme events, and combinations historical analogue events or scenarios and of extreme events. These include: by incorporating this information into an understanding of how our social, economic . compounding of fl ooding and coastal and physical systems behave when stressed or risks due to rising sea levels and intense compromised. This research should help identify rain events; the critical points of failure or vulnerability and . changes in bushfi re intensity and frequency what combinations of factors (and associated from anticipated increases in the number likelihoods) will lead to disastrous consequences. of extreme fi re weather days, decreases Examples include: in rainfall in southern Australia and changes to fuel loads and curing; . Examining the relationships between building codes, construction practice and . changes in wind loads, fl ooding and storm settlement patterns, and the maintenance surge due to changes in frequency and or degradation of structures over time. intensity of cyclones and East Coast Lows; Given this information, models can then be . increases in periods of extreme extended to capture the changing hazard high temperature. environment, and tools can be developed for assessing the cost–benefi t of adaptation Uncertainty exists and will continue to pervade measures such as improved building codes, climate projections and risk assessment, changes in construction materials and/or despite improvements in model performance. how other elements of PPRR (e.g., improved Indeed, some uncertainties are irreducible. warnings or evacuation procedures) might Part of this research task must be to gain a be brought to bear. better understanding of the probabilities and . Targeting specifi c regions such as those consequences related to climate change and adjacent to or on the southern boundary associated impact events in order to reduce of current cyclone regions (e.g., south-east the uncertainty; another part must be to Queensland) for special studies to assess consider tools and strategies to enhance the impacts of the increased cyclone decision-making under uncertainty. hazard under climate change and possible

Tarpaulins cover hailstorm damaged roofs, Blacktown, NSW, December 2007. Image: NSW State Emergency Service.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 19 4. Priority research topics

adaptation measures (such as retrofi tting from both sides, with scientists providing current structures) if required. information tailored to the needs of disaster . Examining the behaviour of critical managers, and managers using the best infrastructure as a system, in order information that science can provide. to understand how single or multiple The challenge is to take our improved infrastructure failures lead to complex or understanding of risk and translate it into cascading failures in our social, economic an emergency management strategy covering and physical infrastructure systems or the whole PPRR spectrum. networks, which in turn can lead to disasters on a local or regional scale. Research response In the context of climate change, the need The emphasis for research here is on for future research in this area lies in translating complementing the improved understanding of the consequence analysis approach described risk with better risk management, by developing above into a better understanding of risk. models of decision-making under uncertainty. For example, how do we translate knowledge of A considerable amount of research has been how fi re damage to electric power transmission done in the area of uncertainty analysis and its lines contributes to electric power blackouts, use in decision-making; now known as the fi eld and the downstream loss of income or social of decision analysis. Notable examples are the disruption to a community, into an research conducted in the context of nuclear understanding of the likelihood of this happening power plant safety in the 1970s and 1980s and, to any given community given potential changes more recently, research into the risk of terrorism. in storm frequency, magnitude and location? In both cases, there was a need to develop approaches to decision-making that A signifi cant enhancement of this type of incorporated a consensus around the available scenario modelling in priority areas is required knowledge in an environment of large in order to (i) provide advice to government uncertainty, where the consequences of a failure and industry regarding cost-effective changes to act must be weighed against a wide range of in the design and construction of infrastructure possible interventions. In the area of natural systems, and (ii) assess the adaptation/ hazard risks, the insurance industry has applied vulnerability implications of forthcoming major advanced natural hazard modelling methods investments in physical infrastructure. incorporating uncertainty analysis, but there has been little research into incorporating climate 4.1.2 What tools are needed to enable change uncertainty into this process. Moreover, decision-making under future climate models designed for insurance applications uncertainty? have not been extended into the broader Context context of PPRR in emergency management. Considering the uncertainty in climate change projections, it can be diffi cult for emergency 4.2 Community and service and disaster managers to make organisational resilience adaptation and resource allocation decisions. Mechanisms are needed to ensure that scientifi c Communities and individuals vary in their knowledge is translated into better risk capacity to prevent, prepare for, respond management practice. It is therefore important to and recover from natural disasters. for disaster managers and climate scientists Understanding the factors that contribute to to agree on climate change information that these variations and using these insights to build is both scientifi cally rigorous and useful for the resilience of communities is an important decision-making. This is likely to involve an effort objective of the emergency management

20 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Communities and individuals vary in their capacity to prevent, prepare for, respond to and recover from natural disasters. Understanding the factors that contribute to these variations and using these insights to build the resilience of communities is an important objective of the emergency management community. community. Climate change complicates this linkages, boost and protect social supports, task by adding an extra dimension to the and plan for not having a plan, which requires challenges for resilience – the capacity to deal fl exibility, decision-making skills, and trusted with expanding and changing risks in the future. sources of information that function in the face A number of questions need to be considered of unknowns (Norris et al., 2008). as part of this sub-theme. Specifi cally, in the Resilience also requires an understanding context of the capacity of communities to adapt of the psycho-social infl uences on human to the changes in emergency risk and impacts behavioural change. that climate change may bring, they can be Resilience is actively promoted by government summarised as follows: and the private and volunteer sectors. It is 1. What does community resilience mean diffi cult to measure or to judge whether policies in a changing climate? and programs are increasing or reducing 2. What practices and processes promote resilience. Factors broadly considered to community resilience in a changing climate? contribute to community resilience include 3. What strategies are most likely to promote knowledge and awareness of natural hazards, these practices and processes? effective governance, high social capital, and a range of behaviours related to hazard reduction 4.2.1 What does community resilience and hazard response. A changing climate is mean in a changing climate? likely to affect a number of these factors. Context For example, awareness of hazards may need to change because of a change in risk; The term ‘resilience’ is generally used to governance arrangements that served the describe the capacity of a community or community well in the past may no longer individual to resist the impacts of a disruption or be robust. adversity; the capacity to bounce back from the negative impacts of a disruption; or the capacity The challenge of understanding and building to adapt to those impacts. In the context of this community resilience varies somewhat with Plan, disruption or adversity means emergencies the size and type of the community. There is and disasters brought about by climate change. a critical role for all levels of government. Researchers in the community resilience fi eld The greater complexity of large urban centres broadly agree on what constitute the key requires the use of more complex research components of resilience, although precise analytical tools than those used for smaller defi nitions vary. Resilience comprises: communities. Rural, remote and Indigenous communities, however, may respond most . resources required to ensure safety and effectively to long-term relationships with service continuity of core functions/activities; providers. Cultural factors are also likely to be . competencies required to use resources important, and attention must be paid to to confront problems/adapt to hazard possible variations in particular groups consequences; distinguished by, for example, language. . mechanisms to integrate resources to ensure The resilience of communities to the impact of a coherent societal capacity; climate change is an important research priority . mechanisms to ensure sustained availability because building climate resilience will be an of resources/competencies (Paton, 2006). important complement to risk-based To build collective resilience, communities must approaches to climate adaptation. A key reduce risk and resource inequities, engage research challenge here will be the suitability, local people in mitigation, create organisational quality and accessibility of fi ne-scale data.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 21 4. Priority research topics

Research response population? How will climate change affect Research is needed to identify the this (e.g., by bringing communities closer characteristics and indicators of resilience to to the ‘tipping point’)? climate changes in a wide range of different . What is the success and effi cacy of hazard community types, and to determine whether awareness and preparedness strategies in resilience needs to be measured in different specifi c cultural communities and in a range ways in a changing climate. Resilience building of demographic and socio-economic groups? is most effective when it draws on existing . What policy, statutory and governance strengths within communities, particularly in arrangements are most benefi cial to enabling social capital and governance. Existing community adaptive capacity? characteristics of resilience must be identifi ed 4.2.2 What practices and processes in order to introduce intervention strategies for promote community preparedness a changing hazard environment (Gow and Paton, 2008). and preventive strategies in a changing climate? Research questions within the emergency management framework for this topic include: Context Climate change will affect community resilience . Are there particular features of a and preparedness in three key ways: ‘climate-resilient community’? Does resilience and adaptive capacity depend on the hazard . Groups that have hitherto not experienced to which people are exposed? Is it different severe weather events are likely to be in a changing rather than a static climate? exposed. In particular, more populous urban Do changes in exposure have a bigger centres may have increased exposure. impact on community resilience than changes . Climate change is likely to pose new risks in natural hazard intensity and frequency? to groups that might have preparedness . Is there a critical number of same-hazard – both physical and psychological – for or different-hazard events which result some existing risks, but not for those in a ‘tipping point’ for a community or created by climate change. It is critical

In order to defi ne what preparedness for climate change risk might mean, research needs to ascertain how unprepared people are for a range of climate-related hazards, and their level of understanding and acceptance of climate change and its implications for natural hazards.

22 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management The research challenge is to identify practices and outcomes that will promote preparation and preventive measures to enhance community resilience.

that we learn from and overcome past climate-related hazards, and their level of cases of limited community preparedness, understanding and acceptance of climate change especially in larger communities that may and its implications for natural hazards. Alongside be ill-prepared for major events. The potential this kind of study, research also needs to review for climate change to induce impacts from the portrayal of climate change and increased unfamiliar hazards on under-prepared hazard risk, as well as the general hazard risk communities is a signifi cant challenge facing and leadership attitudes portrayed in the media, disaster managers. literature and public policy. The research . Community awareness of the risks challenge is to identify practices and outcomes posed by climate change may provide that will promote preparation and preventive an opportunity to drive greater and more measures to enhance community resilience. inclusive preparedness, in which there It is a bottom-up emphasis that will identify is an ability to transfer preparedness elements existing behaviours that may be developed between events (i.e., ‘all hazards’ planning). further and new behaviours and attitudes that The design and effectiveness of warning can be promoted to increase resilience. systems may assist in this regard. There is an extensive literature giving examples Research response and guidelines for the dissemination of There is an extensive international literature that emergency warnings and information to covers ideas, examples and guidelines for the community (Davidson and Wong, 2005; promoting good community preparedness (Gow Elsberry, 1995; Falls, 2002; King, 2004; O’Neil, and Paton, 2008; Greene, 2002; Norman, 2000; 2004; Paton, 2000). Climate change does not Ronan and Johnston, 2005). However, it is necessarily require a change in these strategies, probable that a sizeable proportion of the public but research must identify what the trigger has not considered the implications of climate points are for the commencement of the change for natural hazards (WMO, 2007). In order dissemination of emergency warnings and to defi ne what preparedness for climate change information to the community about potential risk might mean, research needs to ascertain climate change impacts. There is a need to how unprepared people are for a range of understand the ability for existing warning

April 25, 2006, Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT, post Cyclone Monica. Image: Newspix

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 23 4. Priority research topics

system coverage to be expanded and the These include: necessary infrastructure and technology . providing information and education relating required to permit expansion. Existing warning to the impacts of climate change; systems are designed to target specifi c . creating fi nancial incentives to promote populations such as emergency response desirable adaptive behaviour, such as personnel or those defi ned by the reduced insurance premiums for less geographical area exposed to a hazard vulnerable structures; or via the communication method utilised, e.g., mobile phone, radio. . regulation of behaviour through prohibitions, licensing requirements and other legally Research is needed to develop practices enforceable mechanisms; and processes to promote community . policy processes, information fl ows through resilience in a changing climate, especially in public and private organisations, and clarity large communities that are likely to be exposed and coordination of roles and responsibilities. to new risks as a result of climate change. The key question is how we make or guide 4.2.3 What are the most effective individuals, governments and the private sector strategies to ensure that individuals, to adopt better practice in preparing for the governments and the private increased risk imposed by climate change. sector adopt better practices in A critical issue for adaptation is which preparing for the increased risk to mechanism, or combination of mechanisms, communities, business operations is likely to produce the best results in terms or critical infrastructure arising from of increasing resilience in any given situation. climate change? In a disaster context, one of the challenges is how to effect behavioural change before Context a community experiences a disaster, rather A number of mechanisms can be than as a response to it. How do we improve used to promote decisions that reduce voluntary ‘good behaviour’ and encourage vulnerability and discourage decisions best practice? Does the market support or that increase vulnerability. hinder this?

Australian Defence Force personnel, Innisfail, Qld, post Cyclone Larry, March 2006. Image: Commonwealth of Australia/Sgt John Carroll

24 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management One useful framework for considering an Research may be needed to develop a better appropriate mix of strategies to promote understanding of the process and instruments compliance with policy objectives is the that could be used in each category, and how compliance/enforcement pyramid which to coordinate them. promotes self-compliance as a starting point, with an emphasis on education and cooperative Providing information and education and assistance for those at the ‘bottom’ of the working with communities to develop pyramid. Should these strategies fail to achieve collaborative responses are the methods of compliance, a hierarchy of responses is choice for promoting better practices where available, escalating to deterrence through there are no signifi cant barriers to effective penalties at the ‘top’ of the pyramid (Figure 1). action by private actors.

Figure 1. Compliance and enforcement pyramid (after Ayres and Braithwaite, 1992). Hierarchy of regulatory strategies

Civil action Criminal prosecution

Active enforcement (lower level regulatory action)

Assisted self-regulation (warning letters, administrative responses)

Self-regulation (education, advice, persuasion)

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 25 4. Priority research topics

High-quality information and education that is jurisdiction to jurisdiction and serve multiple designed for specifi c age, ethnic and cultural purposes (for example, building codes set groups will allow individuals, communities and minimum construction standards, planning businesses to manage their own risks from regulations take account of matters such as climate change impacts, including changes in urban amenity, heritage values and transport natural hazards. All spheres of government also requirements as well as emergency require an adequate information base for management). Legislation in some states emergency management. Better information stipulates mandatory compliance with the could include improved disclosure of agreed Australian Building Code or Australian Standards climate change risks to community members to (such as the Risk Management Standard inform purchasing decisions and encourage AS4360). Regulation may suffer from a lack adaptive behaviour, and professional up-skilling of fl exibility and unresponsiveness to new to encourage better building design, planning science or understandings. Legal instruments decisions etc. are also subject to judicial interpretation, which often makes the precise operation of regulatory Financial incentives for better practice are likely measures uncertain until tested in court. to come mainly through the insurance market. For example, insurers may choose to offer Research response reduced insurance premiums for less vulnerable The objective of research under this sub-theme structures and locations. Regulation can be is to obtain information that will help important where there are signifi cant barriers decision-makers effect social change towards to effective private action or where there are climate-adaptive behaviour. This will involve important public goods to protect. The most identifying the mix of information, incentives signifi cant regulations for emergency and regulatory arrangements that will be most management are local guidelines or local effective in promoting behaviour that increases planning instruments. Regulatory strategies communities’ resilience to climate change risks. aimed at promoting community preparedness Developing this mix may involve identifying and response to natural disasters vary from theoretical models of social change that can

The Gap, Brisbane, November 2008. Image: NSW State Emergency Service, Erin Pogmore.

26 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management be adapted or applied to the study of natural land and property sales provide revenue for hazard impacts and climate change, and local governments and insurance premiums incorporated into tools of social impact analysis. for insurance companies); Assessing post-disaster experience may also . the role of insurance markets in encouraging provide valuable insights into the best adaptive behaviour and the possible design techniques and tools for promoting adaptive of insurance products to achieve these behaviour (King, 2002). Ideally, any analysis objectives; of policy instruments should be comparative, . public perceptions of climate change risk and so that the strengths and weaknesses of the implications for acceptance and tolerance different policy options are analysed relative of risk (Norman, 2000; Pearce, 2003; United to other options. In order to measure progress Nations, 2005); and behavioural change, data collection . mechanisms by which to ensure that new and analysis needs to occur on an ongoing, property developments and infrastructure cyclical basis. Action research and longitudinal are constructed in a risk-appropriate manner studies can contribute to the frameworks in consistent with local hazards. which to study change in the lives of organisations and institutions as well as the community. Action research and longitudinal 4.3 Adaptive strategies studies also facilitate collaboration between Strategies to prepare for and respond to the research agencies and clients. impacts of extreme events resulting from climate Whatever techniques are used, it will be crucial change will need to be implemented at the to understand how best to promote climate individual, household, community, agency change preparedness in specifi c cultural and business level. This section examines communities such as Indigenous, refugee what capacity-building measures will be and other non-English-speaking communities, required by the emergency management as well as in a range of demographic and sectors and the potential role of the private socio-economic groups, by measuring the sector in supporting disaster response initiatives. success and effi cacy of other hazard awareness 4.3.1 How will climate change affect and preparedness strategies. the emergency management sector’s Potential research topics include: capacity to support preparedness, . assessment of the effi cacy and cost–benefi t response and recovery? of different options for promoting climate Context change adaptive behaviour, taking into The emergency management sector already consideration the risks in specifi c locations, faces considerable strain from current risks and the cultural and other characteristics and hazards during periods of high storm, of particular communities; rainfall and bushfi re activity. The sector relies . assessment of the effi cacy of collaborative heavily on volunteers and non-government practices that are already occurring, such organisations for prevention, preparedness, as cooperative emergency management response and recovery, and attempts to spread planning, and whether regulation may be the risk across Australian society. There are needed to encourage better long-term about 500,000 volunteers in the sector, planning for the impacts of climate change with approximately 350,000 involved in where the market operates on short-term response and recovery activities. The full-time gains (for example, development is continuing and volunteer resource is already suffering in high-risk locations such as low-lying signifi cant stress. Recent research has coastal and fi re-prone bush areas because concluded that many volunteers are struggling

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 27 Fire near Townsville. Image: Wally Irwin.

to balance full-time paid work and family Possible research questions include: responsibilities with higher expectations of . To what extent will climate change limit the compliance and associated training, as well ability of state agencies to draw on resources as emergency callouts (Aitken, 2000; Evans from other jurisdictions? What alternatives and Saxton, 2003; Institute for Volunteering must be developed to ensure adequate Research, 2004; McLennan, 2006; Parkin, resourcing when multiple events coincide? 2008; Paul, 2001; Reinholtd, 2000; Woodward and Kallman, 2001). . What is the capacity of the current emergency management model to adapt An increased frequency and severity of to anticipated climate change impacts and disasters from climate change is expected how can this be improved? to create additional pressure. The likelihood . How can emergency management agencies of simultaneous events may limit the capacity ensure adequate resourcing in times of of each jurisdiction to draw on resources from climate-related disasters, both through paid interstate or the wider region, although and volunteer personnel? the sharing of resources across jurisdictions is still relatively recent and its limits have not 4.3.2 What is the role of the private yet been tested. sector in adaptation though Research response emergency management? The structure and delivery of emergency Context management agencies and services will be As climate change increases the frequency and affected by a range of factors over the coming severity of extreme weather events, the private decades, including demographic shifts, rural sector must be engaged across the PPRR adjustment and broader business development. spectrum, including by contributing to broader Research is required in order to assess the societal resilience. How and to what extent this implications of increased demands specifi cally can be done is not clear. In recent years, many arising from climate change on full-time of the resources and services provided by local and volunteer emergency service personnel government and utilised by emergency service and non-government organisations, and to organisations for response to emergencies at determine whether the current resourcing the local level have been outsourced to mix is the most appropriate for a future the private sector. In some cases, therefore, changing climate. business may become (or may need to become) a contributor to or partner in emergency response. The private sector also plays a critical role in releasing staff to perform volunteer duties, often at times when they are most needed

28 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Flooding, Coraki, NSW. Image: NSW State Emergency Service.

at work. It is not clear to what extent this issue Research is needed to determine: has been accounted for in emergency response . how businesses can best support planning processes or whether this will further emergency management organisations in affect resource availability. In some adapting to climate change, and contribute circumstances, business may be a benefi ciary to community resilience (this may require of emergency management efforts. better understanding of which sectors Research response and industries are more sensitive to climate change-induced disaster and There is little research – peer-reviewed or emergency demands); otherwise – that considers the role that businesses can play in assisting emergency . whether contemporary commercial management organisations to respond to the management systems enhance or reduce changing occurrence of natural hazards linked community resilience and adaptive capacity; to climate change. Likewise, it is not clear that . what specifi c role business could play to assessment of potential climate change impacts enhance emergency preparedness and on the business sector itself (other than possibly response capacity; in the critical infrastructure area) has been . the effectiveness of emergency relief and seriously considered, even as a part of a other special economic support mechanisms, broader business resilience context. This makes including insurance, to enhance the adaptive it diffi cult to analyse adequately the ability of capacity of private enterprise. the business sector to play a part in the preparedness for, response to, and recovery 4.4 Regional implications from climate change impacts on communities. 4.4.1 How will the climate change In order to ascertain how prepared the business adaptive capacity of other countries, sector is to respond to the impacts of climate particularly those in the Pacifi c region, change, it is important that business impact upon the Australian emergency understands the risk it faces. As with the management system and Australian fi re broader community, it is not clear that business and emergency service organisations? does in fact understand its risk, let alone factors it into planning. It is only recently that some Context institutions, such as the Australian Strategic This Research Plan is focused specifi cally on Policy Institute, have commenced dialogue emergency services and disaster/emergency with the business sector about the potential management research needs in an Australian for public–private partnerships in emergency context. There is, however, a need to management, albeit not specifi cally related understand the potential for climate change to climate change. impacts affecting our near neighbours to produce fl ow-on effects for Australia, in order

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 29 4. Priority research topics

to assess what impact this may have on The broader region encompasses the USA, emergency management in Australia. especially California. There is an increasing There are two strands to this issue: the fi rst exchange of personnel and equipment between relates to the strain likely to be placed on the hemispheres (especially between Australia Australia’s emergency management capacity and the USA). It is likely that the partial if it is increasingly called on to assist its near dependence on fi re-fi ghting equipment in the Pacifi c Island and South-East Asian neighbours; northern off-season will become increasingly the second is how climate change may alter untenable as fi re seasons lengthen and overlap. the current capacity and equipment-sharing arrangements that Australia currently enjoys, Research response especially with the USA. Research is needed into how Australian agencies can best enhance the capacity of Australia typically takes the lead in the nearby countries to deal with the increased humanitarian response when natural disasters challenges of climate change, in order to reduce strike the south-west Pacifi c. It is generally the potential for community destabilisation and agreed that it is in our strategic interest to for consequential ‘fl ow-on’ impacts to our take a leading role, since it will place additional emergency management system pressure on Australian emergency services and and emergency service organisations. drive calls for migration if countries in the region become more crisis-prone. Recently, Australia Research is also needed to understand how has been active in the region to encourage local the Australian sector could use its strong resilience – in addition to providing strong international industry links to enhance domestic support for enhancing emergency management and regional capacity. capacity. Less obvious and less formal has been A better understanding is also needed of how the high degree of engagement by Australian fi re Australia would manage without international agencies in the region. These agencies work assistance, should available resources become with local fi re services in Pacifi c Island countries depleted due to the increasing frequency to improve their training and equipment, and of concurrent climate-driven emergencies work to reduce fi re disasters, thereby enhancing occurring here and overseas. local capacity to deal with the increased risks posed by climate change.

Image: Newspix/Brad Fleet.

30 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 4.5 Research prioritisation Ranking areas for research into high and low priority is diffi cult, given that many aspects of Since resources and capacity currently available research are not directly comparable and in Australia for adaptation research are limited, time-frames for research vary. Nonetheless, the National Climate Change Adaptation an attempt has been made to apply the Research Facility has developed a set of six six priority criteria to the summary list of priority criteria to be used for prioritising research topics questions identifi ed under each of the four within each thematic Research Plan (see sub-themes in Section 4. From this, the following Appendix 1 for details). These criteria are being list of priority topics emerged (Table 2). The full used for all the Research Plans and consist of assessment matrix is presented in Appendix 2. three critical (essential) considerations: . severity of potential impact/degree of potential benefi t; . immediacy of required intervention/response; . need to change current intervention/ practicality of intervention. There are three additional desirable criteria: . potential for co-benefi ts; . potential to address multiple, including cross-sectoral, issues; . distribution and equity of the perceived benefi ts of any adaptation strategy.

Clearing storm damage in The Gap, Brisbane, 2008. Image: Commonwealth of Australia/Graham McBean.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 31 4. Priority research topics

Table 2. Research priorities for emergency management Understanding risk Priority

. Where and how are changes in climate going to put us at greatest risk? Very High – High . What tools are needed to enable decision-making under future climate uncertainty? High Priority Community and organisational resilience

. What does community resilience mean in a changing climate? Medium . What practices and processes promote community preparedness and preventive High – Medium strategies in a changing climate? . What are the most effective strategies to ensure that individuals, governments Very High – High and the private sector adopt better practices in preparing for the increased risk to communities, business operations or critical infrastructure arising from climate change? Adaptive strategies

. How will climate change affect the emergency management sector’s capacity to Very High – High support preparedness, response and recovery? . What is the role of the private sector in adaptation through emergency management? High Regional implications

. How will the climate change adaptive capacity of other countries, particularly those Medium in the Pacifi c region, impact upon the Australian disaster management system and Australian fi re and emergency service organisations?

32 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 5. Implementation Plan

A detailed Implementation Plan has been low-carbon economy and related trading developed to acompany this National issues. The establishment of the CSIRO Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Climate Adaptation Flagship and the National for Emergency Management. This section Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility therefore provides a broad overview of the has signifi cantly strengthened and improved resourcing issues that are likely to arise in the the coordination of research capacity in implementation of this Research Plan. this area. There are small policy research groups and 5.1 Existing research capacity individuals operating largely in isolation across Australia. Bringing these together would help Research capacity is a function of the availability assess capacity. But it is likely that capacity of the needed expertise. In the case of this is lacking, especially in the areas of policy, theme, key expertise includes interdisciplinary law, sociology and institutional studies. and inter-sectoral skills. There is scope to The research capacity gaps are likely to enhance Australian adaptation research capacity be largest in the policy and practice areas. through international collaboration, as has Issues include the need to identify specifi c happened with climate change science. areas of weakness, and the value of Taking each of the three areas of adaptation international collaboration. research in emergency management in turn: Australia is already served by a number Climate change science of information dissemination channels for Australia has signifi cant research capacity in emergency management-related research, climate change science through the Bureau including the Australian Disaster Information of Meteorology, CSIRO, and some state Network, the Australian Journal of Emergency government agencies and university research Management, Geoscience Australia’s Natural groups. These are well linked in terms of sharing Hazards Online, and the Australasian Fire research capacity and tools globally, largely and Emergency Services Authority Council’s through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Knowledge Web Network. There are also Change (IPCC). state-based networks and conferences, but there is scope for increasing the Risk analysis opportunity for direct contact between Substantial technical capacity exists, in researchers and practitioners. particular at Geoscience Australia and many fi re and emergency service organisations and universities, especially Macquarie University’s 5.2 Potential collaborations Risk Frontiers. In stating that technical capacity Given that research funding is limited, it is large, there is an assumption that existing is critical that new activities should avoid work on natural hazards meshes well with work duplicating other initiatives. Valuable linkages on adaptation questions; this is not necessarily can be made with state-based projects which the case. Capacity appears to be much less in will have some congruent outcomes, such as non-technical areas that are relevant for Victoria’s Future Coasts and the Queensland vulnerability assessment. There is also little Future Coastlines projects. agreement on suitable measures of vulnerability. To ensure that research outputs are capable Adaptation policy and practice of easy and prompt uptake, it is essential that Australia is well served by policy research the needs of end-users be taken into account groups within and outside the public sector, early in the design of priority research. but most of these groups do not work in Understanding the context and manner emergency management and, until very recently, in which research will be used will help paid little attention to climate change adaptation determine what modes of dissemination in any context other than the economics of a and uptake are most appropriate. Very few

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 33 5. Implementation Plan

end-users will access research through research with local governments can attract traditional academic publications, preferring local government co-funding. Furthermore, instead toolkits, presentations and workshops, the insurance industry has a strong interest interactive web-based material, CDs and DVDs in this research. It is already engaged in a range and so on. of related research activities, and may contribute A critical starting point in deciding how best further to the research effort both fi nancially to disseminate information and promote uptake and through in-kind support such as knowledge will be to identify relevant primary and secondary exchange. There may also be opportunities end-users for particular research priorities. for collaborative funding with R&D corporations Some work, for example, may directly inform (e.g., the CLIMAG program) and the National the operational decisions of emergency services Health and Medical Research Council. agencies. Other research, however, may speak There are two government grant schemes directly to policy-makers, informing their choice addressing both ends of the disaster/emergency of policy intervention. This highlights the need research spectrum. The Natural Disaster for bottom-up approaches to research that use Mitigation Program funds mitigation and qualitative and quantitative research methods preventive projects while also providing to gather valuable existing knowledge from money for disaster risk management studies. local stakeholders and experts from the very Australian Disaster Research Grants, on the beginning of the implementation process. other hand, enable researchers to study natural This is particularly important considering that disasters in Australia at fi rst hand by visiting emergency issues are geographically diverse. disaster areas post-impact. A bottom-up approach engages emergency workers or practitioners, provides the Funding and resources may also be accessed opportunity to identify local research needs, through Cooperative Research Centres (CRCs) and ensures that the research is accessible with research agendas relevant to climate and relevant for emergency practitioners. change adaptation research in line with this Support from local emergency organisations Research Plan. will be vital for harnessing and increasing For adaptation studies with a focus on impacts specifi c knowledge. on Indigenous cultural heritage, funding may There are already a number of key industry groups be obtained through the Indigenous Heritage and peak bodies supporting the work of the Program. Research undertaken by Indigenous stakeholders who will need to use the research Australian students or early-career scientists outputs of this Research Plan. The Facility may also attract funding from the ARC will work with these groups as well as the Discovery Indigenous Researchers Development research networks for emergency services and Grant Program. emergency management to ensure that existing Generally, the Australian Research Council mechanisms are used as much as possible. Grants Program would be the fi rst port of call for many researchers and research institutions that 5.3 Additional funding sources seek additional support. Relevant grants offered by the ARC include: In order to fully address the key research objectives outlined in this Research Plan and to . Discovery Projects: A variety of fellowships undertake essential research programs, it will be are offered under the scheme to nurture necessary to look for additional funding sources the talents of Australia’s most promising other than those made available through early-career researchers and to support NCCARF. Particularly relevant to the National established researchers. Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for . Discovery Future Fellowships: Future Emergency Management are key government Fellowships are offered to promote research organisations such as Emergency Management in areas of critical national importance by Australia (EMA) and state and territory giving world-class researchers incentives to departments. Likewise, collaborative conduct their research in Australia.

34 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management . Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment and . Linkage International Projects: The scheme Facilities: The scheme fosters collaboration encourages networks and collaborations through its support of the cooperative use between researchers, research teams and of national and international research facilities. research centres of excellence in Australia Essentially, the scheme provides funding for and overseas. Researchers awarded large-scale cooperative initiatives so that Linkage International funding may participate expensive infrastructure, equipment and in national and international exchanges facilities can be shared by researchers in between research organisations. partnered organisations. The ARC may also fund single-organisation proposals in some circumstances. . Linkage Projects: The scheme supports collaborative research and development projects between higher education organisations and other organisations, including within industry, to enable the application of advanced knowledge to problems. Typically, research projects funded under the scheme involve risk. In recommending funding for proposals under Linkage Projects, the ARC may take into consideration the likely benefi t of the research to Australian regional and rural communities.

February 7, 2009, Labertouche, Vic. Image: Newspix/Alex Coppel.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 35 6. References and further reading

Adler G (2004) Volunteers – hard to attract, hard to COAG (2004) Australia’s Ability to Respond to keep, easy to lose: does it have to be so? Paper and Recover from the Impact of a Catastrophic presented at the 11th Annual Australasian Fire Disaster. Report for the Council of Australian Authorities Council Conference, October, Perth. Governments by a Working Group of the Australian Emergency Management Committee. Aitken A (2000) Identifying key issues affecting the retention of emergency service volunteers. Cottrell A (2007) What is the thing called Aust J Emerg Manage 15(2), 16–23. ‘community’? An example in far north Queensland. In: King D, Cottrell A (eds) Communities Living With Aldridge M (2003) The Way Ahead: Development Hazards. Townsville: Centre for Disaster Studies, of Effective Recruitment and Retention Strategies James Cook University, Townsville, 6–17. for Volunteer Fire Services. AFAC VOLUNTEER Management Paper. Fire and Emergency Services Cuskelly G, Brosnan PA (2001) Volunteers and Authority of Western Australia, Perth. employment relations issues in the not for profi t sector. Aust J Volunteer 6(2), 99–107. Anderson-Berry L, King D (2005) Mitigation of the impact of tropical cyclones in northern Australia Davidson J, Wong MC (2005) Guidelines on through community capacity enhancement. Integrating Severe Weather Warnings into Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Risk Management. WMO/TD No. 1292. WMO, Change 10, 755–758. Geneva, Switzerland. Ayres I, Braithwaite J (1992) Responsive Elsberry R (ed) (1995) Tropical Cyclone Regulation: Transcending the Deregulation Debate. Disaster Mitigation: Global Perspectives on Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. Tropical Cyclones. WMO/TD No. 693, Tropical Cyclone Programme Report No. TCP-38. WMO, Bridgman P, Davis G (2004) The Australian Policy Geneva, Switzerland. Handbook, 2nd edition. Allen and Unwin, Sydney. EMA (Emergency Management Australia) (1998) Buckle P (1999) Redefi ning community and Australian Emergency Management Glossary. vulnerability in the context of emergency Australian Emergency Manuals Series Part I: management. Aust J Emerg Manage 13(4), 21–26. The Fundamentals Manual 3. Commonwealth Buckle P (2001) Managing community resilience Government of Australia. in a wide-area disaster. Aust J Emerg Manage 16, EMA Institute (2008) Annotated Bibliography on 13–18. Emergency Management and Climate Change. Childs IRW, Auliciems A, Hundloe TJ, McDonald Commonwealth Government of Australia. GT (1988) Socioeconomic impacts of climate Evans E, Saxton J (2003) Five key trends and change: potential for decision-making. In: Pearman their impact on the voluntary sector. NFP Synergy, GI (ed) Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change. London [available at http://e-volunteerism.com/ CSIRO, East Melbourne / EJ Brill, Leiden, the quarterly/03oct/03oct-saxton.php]. Netherlands, 648–664. Evans G, Stecker R (2004) Motivational Childs IRW, Hastings PA, Auliciems A (1996) consequences of environmental stress. Redcliffe ten years on: a longitudinal study of policy J Environ Psychol 24, 143–165. response to potential greenhouse-induced storm surge in a local government area. In: Heathcote Evans GW (2001) Environmental stress and RL, Cuttler C, Koetz J (eds) Conference on Natural health. In: Baum A, Revenson T, Singer JE (eds) Disaster Reduction 1996: Conference Proceedings. Handbook of Health Psychology. Wiley, New York, 211–222. Barton, ACT. Institution of Engineers, 365–385. Australia. National conference publication (Institution Fahey C (2003) ‘Working with communities’ to of Engineers, Australia): no. 96/10. ‘build social capital’: refl ecting on old and new COAG (2002) Natural Disasters in Australia: thinking about volunteers. Aust J Emerg Manage Reforming Mitigation, Relief and Recovery 18(4), 12–17. Arrangements. Report to the Council of Australian Governments by a High-Level Offi cials’ Group.

36 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Falls R (2002) Tropical Cyclone Impacts. Keys CL (1991) Community analysis: some Proceedings of the Fifth WMO International considerations for disaster preparedness Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-V), Cairns, and response. Macedon Digest 6(2), 13–16. Australia. WMO Report/TD No. 1136. WMO, King DC (2002) Post-disaster surveys: experience Geneva, Switzerland. and methodology. Aust J Emerg Manage 17(3), Fitch J (1994) Endangered species: volunteers. 1–13. Emerg Med Serv 23, 38–46. King DC (2004) Understanding the message: social Foresight (2004) Foresight Future Flooding Study. and cultural constraints to interpreting weather Offi ce of Science and Technology, London, UK. generated natural hazards. Int J Mass Emerge Disasters 22(1), 57–74. Fothergill A, Maestas EGM, Darlington JADR (1999) Race, ethnicity and disasters in the United King DC, MacGregor CJ (2000) Using social States: a review of the literature. Disasters 23(2), indicators to measure community vulnerability 156–173. to natural hazards. Aust J Emerg Manage 15(3), 52–57. Garnaut R (2008) The Garnaut Climate Change Review. Commonwealth of Australia. Cambridge Lima ML (2004) On the infl uence of risk perception University Press [available at http://www. on mental health: living near an incinerator. garnautreview.org.au/domino/Web_Notes/ J Environ Psychol 24, 71–84. Garnaut/garnautweb.nsf]. Low T (2008) Climate Change and Invasive Gow K, Paton D (eds) (2008) The Phoenix Species: A Review of Interactions. Biological of Natural Disasters: Community Resilience. Diversity Advisory Committee, Commonwealth Nova Science Publishers, New York, USA. Government of Australia, Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. Greene RR (2002) Resiliency: An Integrated Approach to Practice, Policy, and Research. Lucas C, Hennessy K, Mills G, Bathols J (2007) NASW Press, Washington, DC, USA. Bushfi re Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change Impacts. Handmer J (2003) Adaptive capacity: what does Consultancy Report prepared for the Climate it mean in the context of natural hazards. In: Institute of Australia, 84pp. Smith JB, Klein RJT, Huq S (eds) Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development. Imperial McLennan J (2006) Survey of New Volunteers at College Press, London, UK, 51–70. Six Months: April–September 2005 Entry Cohorts. Bushfi re Cooperative Research Centre, School of Handmer J, Dovers D (2007) The Handbook of Psychological Science, La Trobe University. Disaster and Emergency Policies and Institutions. Earthscan, London, UK. Middelmann MH (ed) (200 7) Natural Hazards in Australia: Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements. Hastings PA, Childs IRW (2009) Adapting Geoscience Australia, Canberra. to sea-level rise: lessons for the future from Redcliffe, Queensland. In: Paton D, Gow K (eds) Mileti D (1999) Disasters by Design: A Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Other Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United Catastrophes: Fears and Concerns for the Future. States. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, Nova Science Publishers, New York, USA. DC, USA. I nstitute for Volunteering Research (2004) Research Norman E (2000) Resiliency Enhancement: Bulletin: 1997 National Survey of Volunteering Putting the Strengths Perspective into Social in the UK [available at http://www.ivr.org.uk/ Work Practice. Columbia University Press, researchbulletins/bulletins/1997-national-survey-of- New York, USA. volunteering-in-the-uk.htm]. Norris FH, Stevens SP, Pfefferbaum B, Wyche KF, Izadkhah YO, Hosseini M (2005) Towards resilient Pfefferbaum RL (2008) Community resilience as a communities in developing countries through metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy education of children for disaster preparedness. for disaster readiness. Am J Comm Psychol 41, Int J Emerg Manage 2(3), 138–148. 127–150.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 37 6. References and further reading

O’Neil P (2004) Why don’t they listen? Reinholtd S (2000) Managing change within Developing a risk communication model to the emergency services to ensure the long-term promote community safety behaviour. The viability of volunteerism. Aust J Emerg Manage International Emergency Management Society 15(1), 6–9. 11th Annual Conference Proceedings, May 18–21, Ronan KR, Johnston DM (2005) Promoting 2004. Melbourne. Community Resilience in Disasters: The Role Parkin D (2008) Future challenges for volunteer for Schools, Youth and Families. Springer, based emergency services. Aust J Emerg Manage New York, USA. 23(2), 61–67. Salter J (1995) Disasters as manifestations of Passerini E (2000) Disasters as agents of social vulnerability. Aust J Emerg Manage 10, 9–10. change in recovery and reconstruction. Natural Sullivan M (2003) Communities and their Hazards Review 1(2), 67–72. experience of emergencies. Aust J Emerg Manage Paton D (2000) Emergency planning: integrating 18(1), 19–26. community development, community resilience Tobin GA (1999) Sustainability and community and hazard mitigation. J Am Soc Prof Emerg resilience: the holy grail of hazards and planning. Managers 7, 109–118. Environ Hazards 1, 13–26. Paton D (2006) The dynamics of societal resilience. United Nations (2005) Draft Hyogo Declaration. Powerpoint presentation in Canberra during a World Conference on Disaster Reduction, January Small Group Meeting at The Defence Science and 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan [available at http:// Technology Organisation, Canberra, 22–23 May. www.unisdr.org/wcdr/]. Paton D, Johnston D (eds) (2006) Disaster Wisner B (1993) Disaster vulnerability: scale power Resilience: An Integrated Approach. and daily life. Geo J 30(2), 127–140. Charles C Thomas Publisher, Springfi eld, IL, USA. WMO (2007) Climate Information for Adaptation Paul L (2001) Volunteering issues and challenges. and Development Needs. WMO-No. 1025. World Aust J Volunteer 6(2), 30–36. Climate Programme and the World Climate Pearce L (2003) Disaster management and Research Programme, WMO, Geneva. community planning, and public participation: Woodward A, Kallman J (2001) Why volunteers how to achieve sustainable hazard mitigation. leave: volunteer exit survey in the emergency Natural Hazards 28, 211–222. services. Aust J Volunteer 6(2), 91–98. Penner L (2002) Dispositional and organizational infl uences on sustained volunteerism: an interactionist perspective. J Social Iss 58, 447–467.

38 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Appendix 1 Criteria for setting research priorities in National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans

The Department of Climate Change and Desirable the National Climate Change Adaptation 4. Potential for co-benefi ts Research Facility are developing a series of National Climate Change Adaptation Will the research being considered produce Research Plans for identifi ed priority theme any benefi ts beyond informing climate areas. The Research Plans will identify critical adaptation strategies? gaps in the information needed by sectoral 5. Potential to address multiple, including decision-makers, set research priorities based cross-sectoral, issues on these gaps, and identify capacity that could Will the research being considered address more be harnessed to conduct priority research. than one issue, including cross-sectoral issues? The criteria listed below will guide the research planning process to set research priorities in 6. Distribution and equity of the perceived the priority theme areas. benefi ts of any adaptation strategy Will research priorities recognise the special Essential needs of particular groups in Australia? 1. Severity of potential impact/degree of potential benefi t What is the severity of the potential impact to be addressed or benefi t to be gained by the research? Potentially irreversible impacts and those that have a greater severity (in social, economic or environmental terms) will be awarded higher priority.

2. Immediacy of required intervention/response Research will be prioritised according to the timeliness of the response needed. How immediate is the intervention or response needed to address the potential impact or create the benefi t? Research that must begin now in order to inform timely responses will receive a higher priority than research that could be conducted at a later date and still enable a timely response.

3. Need to change current intervention/ practicality of intervention Is there a need to change the intervention used currently to address the potential impact being considered? If yes, what are the alternatives and how practical are these alternative interventions? Research that will contribute to practicable interventions or responses will be prioritised. Does research into the potential impact of the intervention being considered contribute to the knowledge base required to support decisions about these interventions?

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 39 Appendix 2 Research prioritisation matrix for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Emergency Management

Critical Severity or Benefi t Immediacy Need to change intervention / Practicality 4.1 Understanding risk

4.1.1. Where and how are High High High–Medium changes in climate going to Information is needed for High probability that better put us at greatest risk? increased understanding information will infl uence of current risks and to current practice (increased inform ongoing planning understanding of risk is capable of informing Probably of longer-term decisions, but will not importance necessarily do so)

4.1.2. What tools are needed High Medium High to enable decision-making Unless the risk profi le shows Need better models which under future climate uncertainty? dramatic change, generally incorporate climate change of longer-term importance and address the needs of decision-makers 4.2 Community and organisational resilience

4.2.1. What does community High–Medium High High resilience mean in a changing Concept of community Building resilience is Reason to believe that climate? resilience comparatively generally a medium– targeted interventions new to the emergency long-term strategy, so can help enhance management sector, but planning needs to community resilience many current activities commence as soon as contribute to resilience. possible, informed by Research in the area of agreement on what the community resilience may objective of a ‘resilient identify additional strategies community’ means in the climate change context

4.2.2. What practices and As above As above As above processes promote community preparedness and preventive strategies in a changing climate?

4.2.3. What are the most Very High–High High High effective strategies to ensure Strong need to identify Techniques and Reason to believe that individuals, governments best techniques for understanding needed that interventions will and the private sector adopt mobilising community now in order to implement be practicable better practices in preparing for to adopt positive behaviours long-term strategies of the increased risk to communities, and enhance resilience social change business operations or critical infrastructure arising from climate change?

40 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Desirable Overall Potential Cross-sectoral Equity considerations Priority ranking co-benefi ts relevance

Low Mapping of risk will Very High–High Priority contribute to adaptation planning in other National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans, e.g., Settlements and Infrastructure

High Priority

Benefi ts likely to extend Relevant across social/ Strategies aimed at enhancing Medium Priority to other aspects of economic sectors community resilience generally communities if start with the least resilient resilience is ‘generic’ segments of the community

High–Medium Priority

Benefi ts likely to enhance Strategies aimed at Very High–High Priority community resilience promoting adaptive more generally behaviour should reduce the vulnerability of most vulnerable groups

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 41 Appendix 2 continued

Critical Severity or Benefi t Immediacy Need to change intervention / Practicality 4.3 Adaptive strategies

4.3.1. How will climate change Very High High High affect the emergency management Emergency services already Need information now to Reason to believe that sector’s capacity to support under strain; climate change plan for the future emergency management preparedness, response will exacerbate this agencies would implement and recovery? resourcing changes

4.3.2. What is the role of the High High High private sector in adaptation The private sector Signifi cant scope for through emergency management? owns signifi cant critical enhanced engagement with infrastructure and is a private sector ‘missing link’ in disaster preparedness, response and recovery 4.4 Regional implications

4.4.1. How will the climate change Moderate Medium Medium adaptive capacity of other But increasing with time Not immediately a Need to change in the case countries, particularly those in large-scale problem, but of off-season agreements, the Pacifi c region, impact upon the there is the possibility that but it is not clear what they Australian emergency management equipment might become should be, given resource system and Australian fi re and unavailable at very short limitations. There is less emergency service organisations? notice certainty about engagement with our region – but it is likely that it should be much broader to foster local resilience.

42 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management Desirable Overall Potential Cross-sectoral Equity considerations Priority ranking co-benefi ts relevance

Enhanced resourcing of Very High–High Priority emergency management sectors will assist with non-climate emergencies /disasters

High Priority

Addressing these regional No specifi c equity issues Medium Priority implications should help lift resilience for all types of crises. Potential for solutions in this area to assist regional neighbours – cross-sectoral developmental benefi ts.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management 43 Acknowledgements

The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility gratefully acknowledges the considerable time and effort invested by the writing team, and by the many individuals and organisations in the development of this plan.

44 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Emergency Management (1,1) -1- NCCARF emergency brochure_G cover.indd 11/05/10 12:27 PM

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