End of Program Report July 2009–December 2011 Authors Copyright and Disclaimer Important Disclaimer Gillian Cambers (CSIRO) Gillian Cook (Bureau of Meteorology) © 2012 CSIRO and the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology advise that the Lily Jade Frencham (Bureau of Meterology) Bureau of Meteorology. information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader needs Jill Rischbieth (CSIRO) To the extent permitted by law, Kevin Hennessy (CSIRO) to be aware that such information may be incomplete or all rights are reserved and no unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance part of this publication covered Enquiries or actions must therefore be made on that information Kevin Hennessy by copyright may be reproduced without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research or copied in any form or by any technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO Private bag 1 means except with the written and the Bureau of Meteorology (including their employees Aspendale, 3195, Victoria permission of CSIRO and the and and consultants) exclude all liability to any person for any Australia Bureau of Meteorology. consequences, including but not limited to all losses, Kevin.Hennessy@csiro.au damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part Reviewers or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Tom Beer (CSIRO) Ian Cresswell (CSIRO) Peter May (Bureau of Meteorology) Bryson Bates (CSIRO) Contents

Executive Summary ...... 2 List of Abbreviations ...... 4

1 . Introduction ...... 5 1.1 International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative 5 1.2 Pacific Climate Change Science Program 5 1.2.1 Vision statement 5 1.2.2 Objectives 5 1.2.3 Partner countries 5 1.2.4 Program components 5 1.2.5 Management framework 6

2 . Addressing the Program’s Objectives ...... 6 2.1 Provision of scientific information 6 2.1.1 Management of climate data and analysis of data 7 2.1.2 Extreme events 7 2.1.3 Understanding large-scale climate features 9 2.1.4 Climate projections 10 2.1.5 Ocean processes and changes 11 2.2 Building capacity of partner countries in climate change science 12 2.2.1 Process for engagement 12 2.2.2 Regional workshops, conferences and events 13 2.2.3 In-country training 15 2.2.4 Attachments 17 2.3 Information dissemination 18 2.3.1 Preparation and publication of Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research 18 2.3.2 Launch and distribution of Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research 18 2.3.3 Preparation of brochures in English and local languages 19 2.3.4 Launching PCCSP tools 20 2.3.5 Media coverage and capacity building 21 2.3.6 Website and e-newsletter 22

3 . The way forward ...... 22 Appendix 1: List of PCCSP Publications ...... 23 Appendix 2: Media Coverage Summary – Launch of Climate Change in the Pacific ...... 25 Appendix 3: Pacific Climate Change Science Program media coverage during Greenhouse 2011 ...... 26 Appendix 4: Project Reports ...... 28

1 Executive Summary

The International Climate Change 1. Provision of scientific • The future is expected to be warmer Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI) is a five-year information with more extremely hot days and investment of $328.2 million by Australia warm nights, a general increase in The PCCSP was designed to address to meet high priority climate adaptation annual mean rainfall and the number major gaps in climate change science, needs in vulnerable countries in of heavy rain days, fewer droughts including understanding the drivers the Asia-Pacific region. There are and tropical cyclones, more sea-level of climate variability, analysis of four components to the ICCAI: rise and more ocean acidification. observed trends, country-specific • Improved science and understanding; climate projections, sea-level rise 2. Capacity building • Strategic planning and and ocean acidification. The main Ongoing engagement with the vulnerability assessment; findings of the PCCSP research were partner countries and regional documented in a 530 page peer- • Implementing, financing organisations was an important reviewed report Climate Change in and coordinating adaptation part of capacity building under the the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and measures; and PCCSP. Direct engagement took New Research, Volume 1: Regional place during in-country visits and • Multilateral support. Overview; Volume 2 Country Reports. regional workshops, with frequent This was published in hard copy and The Pacific Climate Change Science remote engagement via e-mail and online in November 2011. Country- Program (PCCSP) was the primary telephone. Strong relationships were specific brochures were also published. input to the first component and will developed with key contacts. inform the other components. This In addition, at the conclusion of the Over 500 people were reached $20 million program ran from July Program 26 peer-reviewed journal through five climate change science 2009 to December 2011. The Manager papers and four book chapters were workshops, and training activities was Gillian Cambers. The three published or in press, five papers across all 15 partner countries. objectives of the PCCSP were to: were submitted to journals and • Conduct a comprehensive climate 23 papers were in preparation. Four tools were developed change science research program Key findings 1. The Pacific Climate Change Data aimed at providing in-depth Portal provides access to historical • The climate of the 15 partner information about past, present and climate trends and basic climate countries in the western tropical future climate in 15 partner countries; information from more than 90 Pacific is strongly influenced by one • Build the capacity of partner individual observation sites across or more of the following features: the country scientific organisations, the Pacific Islands and East Timor; South Pacific Convergence Zone, where feasible, to undertake the West Pacific Monsoon, and the 2. The Pacific Tropical Cyclone scientific research to support the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone; Data Portal provides access to provision of this information; and detailed information and data • Mean temperatures in the region • Disseminate the information to partner on historical tropical cyclones have increased by 0.08 to 0.20°C/ countries and other stakeholders. for the Southern Hemisphere; decade since 1960. Sea level in the region has risen by 2 to 10 mm/year 3. The Tropical Cyclone Wind from 1993-2009, with significant Risk Model estimates the wind year-to-year variability. The global hazard from tropical cyclones; average rate of rise over the same 4. The Pacific Climate Futures web- period is 3.2 mm/year. Rainfall data tool provides national and some since 1960 show large interannual sub-national projections. Across variability due to such factors as the all 15 countries, over 350 people El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and were trained in the Basic interface, large decadal variability due to the and over 100 people were trained Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. There in the Intermediate and Advanced has been no significant change in interfaces. Over 95% of participants tropical cyclone frequency or intensity who completed the Intermediate since 1981 (the satellite era); and Advanced training felt confident using the tool to provide projections to stakeholders, e.g.

2 “Knowing how to use Climate Futures and understanding was a huge “Thanks so much to the team for your is a big plus for us as advisors to boost for my future work as far as assistance throughout the years in government’s key policymakers networking is concerned” – Papua preparing this, it is a very excellent on planning, development, New Guinea National Weather Service piece of work and good to use Nauru infrastructure, agriculture and zoning” for awareness purposes” – Nauru – Federated States of Micronesia 3. Information dissemination “There were some positive feedback “PCCSP Climate Futures will help us At least 219 media items were from people from different sectors to access and provide better scientific published or broadcast as a result of – they find the information very information need for Palau to plan the PCCSP activities. The focus of useful, ideal for sector planning. for future climate change” - Palau these falls into three broad categories: A Land Management Officer of media as result of the two launches of A database named CliDE (Climate Data MNRE thought it was an excellent Climate Change in the Pacific (154), for the Environment) was developed publication. It was one of the most the Greenhouse 2011 conference (24) for the National Meteorological popular brochure on the day since and in-country visits (at least 41). Service (NMS) in each country. It was we have about a few left at the end of successfully installed in 14 partner The report Climate Change in the the day from the 100 we received. So countries and 83 people were trained. Pacific was launched in Australia on we might need some more in future. Over 95% of the trainees reported 25 November 2011. On 6 December We like to thank you for the support feeling comfortable or very comfortable 2011, the report was highlighted again extended to us thus far” - Samoa with operating the database. During at a joint Australian Government / 4. The way forward the in-country visits, the PCCSP Secretariat of the Pacific Environment team organised climate science Programme (SPREP) event at the 17th A gaps and needs analysis of climate workshops that reached over 150 Conference of the Parties (COP17) change science in the region was people. This significant capacity- to the United Nations Framework conducted with partner countries building activity was well received, e.g. Convention on Climate Change and regional organisations in 2010. (UNFCCC) in Durban, South Africa. See The top seven priorities are: “It is so vital because it assists to www.pacificclimatechangescience.org store important data and helps me to • Broader communication of search for data needed from people. It The PCCSP-sponsored partner country climate change science to has improved my knowledge on how participants at the Greenhouse 2011 partner country stakeholders; to store and output data” – Kiribati conference were offered the opportunity • Further capacity building to undertake an interview to camera. In 2011, three scientists from Samoa, and education; Many of the participants found this Papua New Guinea and Fiji worked an excellent learning opportunity in • Reducing uncertainty in atmospheric with PCCSP scientists for two to six building their communication skills. and oceanic projections; weeks to build climate science research Some of these interviews were used • Robust attribution of climate capacity. Participants were required to produce a short video that was change to natural and/or to produce agreed outputs, ranging played during the COP17 side-event. anthropogenic factors; from presentations to colleagues at the Bureau of Meteorology and In response to the need to provide • Updated regional and country CSIRO, to co-authored papers scientific information to different specific projections for 2020 and oral presentations to be given audiences, a series of brochure to 2100 and beyond; products were developed over the at international conferences. • More detailed projections course of the PCCSP. This included two Feedback was very positive, e.g. for extreme events; and regional brochures and 15 individual “I can say with great confidence that brochures summarising the current and • Detailed projections for selected the attachment has greatly enhanced future climate of each partner country. economic sectors and regions. my professional career development. In-country launches of the brochures Addressing each of these has been built Even though I enjoyed all the aspect were held in Kiribati and Samoa into the new Pacific-Australia Climate of the attachment, the actual analysis and the brochures were launched Change Science and Adaptation of the data and conducting statistical alongside the report in Vanuatu Planning (PACCSAP) program, which analysis was the one that stood in November 2011. The country runs from July 2011 to June 2013. out for me personally. The benefit brochures were very well-received. of working with respected Bureau scientists and creating that bond

3 List of Abbreviations

AusAID GCOS PACC Australian Agency for Global Climate Observing System Pacific Adaptation to Climate International Development ICCAI Change Project BoM International Climate Change PASAP Bureau of Meteorology Adaptation Initiative Pacific Adaptation Strategy CAWCR IPCC and Assistance Program Centre for Australian Weather Intergovernmental Panel PCCSP and Climate Research on Climate Change Pacific Climate Change CCAM IPCC AR4 Science Program Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model Intergovernmental Panel on Climate SOI CCiP Change Fourth Assessment Report Southern Oscillation Index Climate Change in the Pacific IPCC AR5 SPC CDMS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Secretariat of the Pacific Community Climate data management system Change Fifth Assessment Report SPCZ CliDE ITCZ South Pacific Convergence Zone Climate Data for the Environment Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone SOPAC COP LSE Pacific Islands Applied Conference of Parties to the Large Scale Environment Geoscience Commission United Nations Framework MIT SPREP Convention on Climate Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology Secretariat of the Pacific Regional CSIRO MSLP Environment Programme Commonwealth Scientific and Mean sea level pressure SST Industrial Research Organisation NCEP Sea surface temperature DCCEE National Centre for TCLV Department of Climate Change Environmental Prediction Tropical cyclone-like vortex and Energy Efficiency NIWA TCRM ENSO National Institute of Water and Tropical Cyclone Risk Model El Niño-Southern Oscillation Atmospheric Research (New Zealand) USP ERA NMS University of the South Pacific European Centre for Medium-range National Meteorological Service WMO Weather Forecasts Reanalysis NMHS World Meteorological Organization GA National Meteorological and WPM Geoscience Australia Hydrological Service West Pacific Monsoon GCM NOAA Global Climate Model National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA)

4 1. Introduction

The Pacific Climate Change Science • Enhance partner country capacity • Build the capacity of partner Program (PCCSP) was developed to to assess key climate vulnerabilities country scientific organisations, assist decision makers and planners and risks, formulate appropriate where feasible, to undertake in 14 Pacific island countries and adaptation strategies and plans, scientific research to support the East Timor to understand better and mainstream adaptation provision of this information; and how their climate and oceans have into decision making; and • Disseminate the information changed and how they may change • Identify and finance priority to partner countries and in the future. The Program was set adaptation measures that other stakeholders. up to deliver early results in priority can immediately increase the knowledge areas while providing the resilience of partner countries to 1.2.3 Partner countries base upon which longer-term climate the impacts of climate change. The 15 PCCSP partner countries are: change science outcomes could be delivered. The $20 million PCCSP, There are four components • Cook Islands a part of the International Climate to the ICCAI: • East Timor • Federated States of Micronesia Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI), • Improved science and understanding; ran from July 2009 to December 2011 • Fiji • Strategic planning and (although some activities started earlier • Kiribati vulnerability assessment; than this date). The PCCSP is being • Marshall Islands followed by the Pacific-Australia Climate • Implementing, financing • Nauru Change Science and Adaptation and coordinating adaptation • Niue Planning (PACCSAP) Program, which measures; and • Palau • Papua New Guinea commenced in July 2011 - the two • Multilateral support. programs ran in parallel during the six • Samoa The PCCSP was the primary input to month period July-December 2011. • Solomon Islands the first component and will inform This report covers the outcomes of • Tonga the other components. The Pacific the PCCSP between 2009 and 2011. • Tuvalu Adaptation Strategy Assistance • Vanuatu 1.1 International Climate Program (PASAP) was the primary input to the second component. 1.2.4 Program components Change Adaptation Initiative The PCCSP consists of five The ICCAI is a five-year, $328.2 million 1.2 Pacific Climate Change components, four of which investment by Australia, to meet high Science Program cover research, and the fifth priority climate adaptation needs in focuses on science information 1.2.1 Vision statement vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific synthesis and communication: region. The focus is on Pacific island The PCCSP is a partnership between countries and East Timor, however, Australian science agencies and Pacific • Component 1: Current targeted policy and technical assistance island countries and East Timor, carried and recent climate; will also be available for other out in collaboration with Pacific regional • Component 2: Regional drivers; countries in the Asia-Pacific region. organisations, with the objective being • Component 3: Climate The ICCAI is jointly managed by the to conduct a comprehensive climate change projections; Australian Agency for International change science research program to • Component 4: Oceans and Development (AusAID) and the provide better information about the sea-level rise; and Department of Climate Change and likely impacts of climate change to Energy Efficiency (DCCEE). The stakeholders in participating countries. • Component 5: Science information synthesis and communication. objectives of the ICCAI are to: 1.2.2 Objectives The components interact with each • Establish a sound policy, scientific The objectives of the PCCSP were to: and analytical basis for long- other and involve research, training term Australian action to help • Provide meteorological, climatological and capacity building, and information partner countries adapt to the and oceanographic (physical and sharing. The schematic on the next impacts of climate change; chemical) information, particularly page shows a framework for how in areas where there are identified the components work together • Increase understanding in partner gaps in partner country knowledge; towards producing the final outputs. countries of the impacts of climate change on their natural and socio-economic systems;

5 Framework for the Pacific Climate Industrial Research Organisation’s Change Science Program: (CSIRO) Climate Adaptation Flagship 2. Addressing and the Deputy Director (Research) of the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). the Program’s Retrieving, managing and analysing Operating by consensus, these five Objectives climate data, and understanding members provided direction to the This section discusses how the major climate phenomena such as PCCSP Management Committee on Program addressed the three the El Niño-Southern Oscillation matters relating to the management, objectives: (a) filling identified scientific implementation and review of gaps in the existing knowledge the PCCSP. Two meetings of the base; (b) building capacity of partner Senior Officials Group were held countries in climate change science; during the course of the PCCSP. Analysing and downscaling and (c) disseminating the information. global climate models to prepare A PCCSP Management Committee, projections of how the atmosphere comprising the Director of the Pacific 2.1 Provision of scientific and oceans may change around Adaptation Team (DCCEE), the Director information 2030, 2055 and 2090 Climate Resilience and Water Section The PCCSP was designed to (AusAID), and one representative address the following major gaps each from CSIRO and the Bureau of in climate change science: Meteorology, appointed by the Director • Management of climate data of CSIRO’s Climate Adaptation Flagship and analysis of data trends; Partner Country engagement to build and the Deputy Director (Research) of local capacity in climate science, BoM respectively, were responsible • Extreme events, including and atmosphere and oceans for oversight and administration of the tropical cyclones; projections; and the preparation PCCSP. The PCCSP Program Manager • Understanding of large-scale of a scientific assessment, country was an ex officio member of this climate features in the Pacific reports, brochures and posters Committee. Terms of reference were region, including the main driver approved for the PCCSP Management of climate variability – the El Niño- Committee. The PCCSP Management Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Committee met at approximately • Climate projections for the region quarterly intervals between July 1.2.5 Management framework and for specific countries; and 2009 and December 2010; this was The PCCSP Management Framework reduced to semi-annually in 2011. • Understanding of ocean was a three-tiered structure comprising processes and how they may Implementation of the PCCSP the ICCAI Senior Officials Group, change in the future under global was undertaken by the Project PCCSP Management Committee and warming, especially sea-level Implementation Team. This consisted the Project Implementation Team. rise and ocean acidification. of the five Component Leaders and The ICCAI Senior Officials Group was chaired by the Program Manager, Within the time frame of two and a half comprised the First Assistant Secretary who was also leader of Component years, the PCCSP made significant Adaptation and Land Management 5. The Program Manager reported to progress in filling these gaps. As of (DCCEE), and the Assistant Director the PCCSP Management Committee. 31 December 2011, 26 peer-reviewed General Sustainable Development Terms of reference prepared for journal papers and three book chapters Group (AusAID). For the purposes the Project Implementation Team had been published or were in press, of managing the PCCSP, the ICCAI were approved by the PCCSP five papers had been submitted and Senior Officials Group was joined Management Committee. The Project 23 were in preparation. The complete by the Director of the Centre for Implementation Team met monthly list is presented in Appendix1. The Australian Weather and Climate between its inception in November main findings of the PCCSP research Research (CAWCR), the Director of 2009 and December 2011. were included in the 530 page peer the Commonwealth Scientific and reviewed report Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research, Volume 1: Regional Overview; Volume 2 Country Reports. This was published in hard copy and online in November 2011. The PCCSP consisted of four research components including 16 projects (see Table 1).

6 Table 1: List of 2.1.1 Management of climate rainfall patterns continue to be strongly Research Projects data and analysis of data influenced by natural climate variability. Climatic data were generously provided As part of the research a Pacific Climate Component 1 by the National Meteorological Service Change Data Portal was developed. Current and recent climate from each partner country. These data This user-friendly web-tool provides 1.1 Rehabilitation of meteorological data were quality-checked at a workshop access to historical climate trends 1.2 Data rescue and data in Darwin. Adjustments were made to and basic climate information from management including CliDE correct for any spurious records – this more than 90 individual observation is called homogenization. The updated sites across the Pacific Islands and 1.3 Improving the understanding of homogeneous records indicate that East Timor. It is freely available for tropical cyclone climatology mean temperatures have increased anyone to explore climate trends at at all available Pacific island stations www.bom.gov.au/climate/pccsp. Component 2 over 1960-2010, with rates ranging A database management system using Regional drivers of from +0.08 to +0.20ºC/decade. The open source software was developed. climate variability strongest warming trends are found The database, named CliDE (Climate 2.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Papua New Guinea and French Data for the Environment), was 2.2 South Pacific Convergence Zone Polynesia. None of the updated developed after significant research into homogeneous records show cooling the current operating systems being 2.3 West Pacific Monsoon and the over the past 70, 50 or 30 years. used by the countries and with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone Trends in maximum and minimum collaboration and input of the partner temperatures are very similar to those countries’ NMS. It was successfully Component 3 of mean temperature at most stations. installed in 14 partner countries and Climate projections The updated rainfall series clearly 83 people were trained. It will be 3.1 Global climate model projections show the large interannual variability installed in Nauru under the PACCSAP 3.2 Tropical cyclones experienced in the tropical Pacific program. CliDE has greatly improved which is linked to such factors as the usability and accessibility of NMS 3.3 Dynamical downscaling the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and data archives. It allows them to improve 3.4 Additional downscaling large decadal variability due to the their services and undertake more climate research in future years through 3.5 Statistical downscaling Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. This variability is large compared with the significant capacity building in data 3.6 Tailored projections magnitude of long-term rainfall trends, management including reducing risk making them less spatially coherent in loss/destruction of paper records. Component 4 than those for temperature. Trends 2.1.2 Extreme events Oceans and sea-level rise in total annual rainfall for the longest 4.1 ENSO variability and climate change available rainfall records indicate a Tropical cyclones are among the most general increase in rainfall totals north- destructive natural hazards, affecting 4.2 Sea level projections for the east of the South Pacific Convergence millions of people around the world Pacific Islands’ region Zone over the past 50 years, with each year. There is some uncertainty 4.3 Ocean acidification mainly declines to the south-west of the as to how climate change influences tropical cyclones as detecting trends 4.4 Effects of climate variability South Pacific Convergence Zone, and in tropical cyclones requires long, and climate change on north of the Inter-Tropical Convergence accurate data records. Changes in extreme sea level events Zone just west of the International Date Line. This pattern of change is recording practices can influence generally reflected in both wet and the analysis of tropical cyclone The following sections, 2.1.1 to dry seasons. Analysis of the last two trends. For example, since the early 2.1.5, describe how these projects decades reveals a marked reversal of 1970s there has been an increase in contributed to addressing the major earlier trends, consistent with a shift of available data with the introduction of gaps. Appendix 2 presents a summary the South Pacific Convergence Zone satellites. A rigorous analysis of the of the scientific methodology and back to its climatological position since data was undertaken by the PCCSP. outcomes of each project. Section 1990 with increase in the south-west A tropical cyclone archive for the 2.1.6 describes the major gaps still Pacific and decreases to the north- Southern Hemisphere has been revised to be addressed, and these have east of the South Pacific Convergence and now consists of tropical cyclone been incorporated into the design Zone. Unlike changes in temperature, best track data for the “satellite era” of the follow-up Pacific-Australia which are dominated by background i.e. the tropical cyclone seasons Climate Change Science and global warming, the lack of a sustained from 1969/70 to 2009/10. Analyses Adaptation (PACCSAP) program. trend in rainfall suggests that Pacific

7 have been undertaken to understand Results from three different methods develop the extreme sea level annual the variability in tropical cyclone used to analyse the global climate climatologies. Results showed that occurrences across the Southern models showed that the methods tidal extremes clustered around either Hemisphere (south of the equator, 30°E are able to reproduce the climatology the solstices or the equinoxes were to 120°W). Much of the variability of of tropical cyclones for the current fairly uniform throughout the year due tropical cyclones can be understood climate. There is, however, considerable to the differences in the dominant tidal (and even predicted in advance) using variation between the three techniques characteristics at each location. The broad-scale indices which describe the in the projected changes. Projections analysis also showed the relationship El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based upon these different modelling between higher than normal sea phenomenon. For the 1981/82 to systems and analysis techniques show levels and the La Niña/El Niño cycle. 2006/07 tropical cyclone seasons, that tropical cyclone frequency in the To investigate storm surges along there are no apparent trends in the PCCSP region is likely to decrease the entire Fiji coastline, a synthetic total numbers of tropical cyclones, by the late 21st century. There is a tropical cyclone and storm surge nor in numbers of 970 hPa tropical moderate level of confidence in this modelling study was undertaken. cyclones (such tropical cyclones projection, with little consistency found Tropical cyclones that have affected being called severe in the Southern in the magnitude of the projected Fiji were characterised in terms of Hemisphere). The quality of best track changes between either the models intensity, track and frequency for all tropical cyclone data in the Southern or the analysis methods. Most CCAM years and La Niña and El Niño years. A Hemisphere was examined in detail and simulations project an increase in population of 1000 plausible cyclones it was concluded that issues with the the proportion of the most severe for that region were sampled. The data homogeneity limit our ability at the storms in the southwest Pacific and synthetic cyclone modelling showed present time to answer the important a poleward movement in the latitude that the north-western coastlines of question of how tropical cyclone at which maximum intensity occurs. Viti Levu and Vanua Levu experienced activity in the Southern Hemisphere is Storm surges cause elevated sea the highest storm surges because changing and its possible relationship to levels which can result in flooding and they face the most common direction global climate change more generally. coastal erosion. As sea level rises, the of approach for tropical cyclones. To provide access to detailed impact of extreme sea level events, The one in one-hundred year storm information and data on historical due to storm surges and high tides, surge heights on northwest coasts tropical cyclones for the Southern will become more severe. A review were found to be around twice the Hemisphere, a specialised website of literature relevant for sea level values at locations in the southwest. was developed using an OpenLayers extremes was carried out and published Due to differences in tropical cyclone platform. The Pacific Tropical Cyclone (Walsh et al, 2012). An analysis of paths and frequencies, the northern Data Portal can be used to plot tide gauge data was undertaken to island was slightly more at risk of tracks of cyclones in the South Pacific storm surges during El Niño years. between 1969 and 2010, allowing users to see the characteristics and paths of past tropical cyclone events. Meteorologists and stakeholders can use this tool to analyse the tracks of historical tropical cyclones and relate them to the impact on lives and infrastructure recorded on the ground. The Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal is freely available at www. bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks. The Tropical Cyclone Wind Risk Model estimates the wind hazard from tropical cyclones. It uses a statistical model to generate thousands of years’ worth of storms that are similar to the observed cyclone track data and a parametric wind field and boundary layer model to simulate the storm winds. It also incorporates downscaled climate model projections.

8 2.1.3 Understanding large- and La Niña events for some partner Evaluation of 24 global climate models scale climate features countries due to errors in how they showed that whilst 20 models simulate simulate ENSO. Twenty-first century a distinct SPCZ, four models incorrectly The climates of partner countries are interannual variability in the region merge the ITCZ and SPCZ rainfall. strongly influenced by one or more of will continue to be largely driven by The majority of models simulate the following features of the climate: ENSO. Unfortunately, climate models an SPCZ with an overly east-west the South Pacific Convergence Zone do not provide consistent projections orientation, rather than extending in (SPCZ), the West Pacific Monsoon of changes in the frequency, intensity a diagonal band into the southeast (WPM), the Inter-Tropical Convergence and patterns of future El Niño and La Pacific as observed. The response Zone (ITCZ) and El Niño-Southern Niña events. As the climate changes, of the SPCZ to climate change was Oscillation (ENSO). These features however, some aspects of the climate examined using simulations from 16 can ‘drive’ rainfall, winds, tropical experienced in some regions during climate models under the A2 (high) cyclone tracks, ocean currents, El Niño and La Niña events may emissions scenario. The majority of nutrients and many other aspects change (e.g. future El Niño events models simulate a future increase in of the environment. Despite their will tend to be warmer than El Niño the area of the SPCZ and in mean and fundamental importance to the region, events experienced in the past). maximum precipitation within the SPCZ, there are still major deficiencies in consistent with increased moisture understanding the properties and The PCCSP organized the first ever convergence in a warmer climate. impacts of these climate features. international conference dedicated to examination of the SPCZ in The impact of the ITCZ and the WPM ENSO is associated with large rainfall observations and in climate model on climate in the partner countries variations in many partner countries. simulations of the 20th and 21st was documented. The year-to-year Countries east of 160ºE and close to centuries. This was held in Samoa in variability in the extent of the monsoon- the equator experience above-average August 2010. The PCCSP research affected region is significant, especially rainfall during an El Niño, while other documented the main features of on the eastern edge, where it varies by countries experience drier than normal the SPCZ and both its seasonal and more than 5000 km between maximum conditions. CMIP3 models vary in interannual variability, developed and minimum extent. The two most their ability to reproduce the strength methods to characterise major features extreme maximum eastern extents and frequency of ENSO events. Many of SPCZ (e.g. latitude and spatial of the monsoon domain occurred models may not simulate the correct orientation) and examined changes during the strong El Niño years of changes in rainfall during El Niño in the SPCZ under global warming. 1983/84 and 1997/98. The north- N H o N 20 o Federated States of Micronesia Palau Marshall Islands o n e I n t e r t r o p i c a l C o n v e r g e n c e Z Kiribati 10 o W a Nauru 0 r m p Tra de W inds o o l S o Papua New Guinea u M o t h Tu valu n Solomon Islands S s o P o East Timor o n a c i f i c C o n v e Samoa r g Vanuatu Fiji e n Niue c e

S 10

Z o o To nga Cook Islands n e S 20 H o

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 30 Kilometres o E E E E E E E W W W W o o o o o o o o o o o 0 180 11 12 0 13 0 14 0 15 0 16 0 17 0 17 0 16 0 15 0 14 0

The main climate features in the western tropical Pacific region.

9 south variability of the westerly wind 2.1.4 Climate projections small increases in the south. There are domain is much less pronounced. relatively small changes in humidity and Prior to the work of the PCCSP, limited solar radiation, generally with increasing Seasonal and year-to-year variability information was available on climate humidity and decreasing solar radiation. in the position and intensity of the projections for the Pacific. The IPCC Potential evapotranspiration is projected ITCZ can have significant impacts Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to increase except along the equator on low latitude Pacific nations due provides annual and seasonal average and over Papua New Guinea and the to its north-south narrowness and temperature and rainfall projections frequency of droughts is projected to large rainfall gradients. As the mean for the whole Pacific divided into only generally decrease. Country-specific seasonal shift of the ITCZ is only 2° two regions (north and south) and results are detailed in Volume 2 of of latitude in the central Pacific, even projections of global average sea- Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific small shifts in overall location can level. The PCCSP provided more Assessment and New Research. result in large impacts. The latitude detailed atmospheric and ocean of the ITCZ varies from year-to-year. projections for each partner country. Dynamical downscaling (using finer For example, during 1979-1999 the resolution climate models), combined Twenty-four global climate models ITCZ tended to be approximately with statistical downscaling for selected were evaluated by comparing the 3° closer to the equator during El regions, was also undertaken to present-day climate simulations against Niño conditions than during La Niña provide more detailed information. historical observations, and 18 were conditions. Rainfall amounts in the ITCZ considered suitable for projections. The Conformal Cubic Atmospheric are also strongly influenced by ENSO. Projections were developed for three Model (CCAM) was used to provide Overall, with only a few exceptions, 20-year periods (centred on 2030, 60 km downscaled projections for the CMIP3 climate models capture 2055 and 2090) and three emissions the PCCSP region. Six global climate the major climatic features of the scenarios (low-B1, medium-A1B and models were selected for dynamical monsoon, including the seasonal high-A2). Projections were presented downscaling using the A2 (high) reversal of the surface winds and for the whole region and for individual emissions scenario. The results from the dominance of summer rainfall partner countries. Higher temperatures the CCAM 60 km downscaling are over winter rainfall. Similarly, climate are very likely with more extremely hot broadly consistent with those of the models on average reproduce the days and warm nights. Annual mean global climate models. However, some seasonal cycle of ITCZ rainfall amounts rainfall generally increases, and there differences between the global climate reasonably well. Projections for the is an increase in the number of heavy model projections and the CCAM 21st century show a general tendency rain days (20-50 mm) and the intensity projections are noted, such as bands of for an amplification of the seasonal of extreme rainfall events (occurring rainfall decrease around latitudes 8°N cycle of rainfall in the West Pacific once in 20 years). Surface wind speed and 8°S. Seven countries were chosen Monsoon region and in the ITCZ region. decreases slightly in the equatorial to downscale to 8 km resolution: East and northern parts of the region, with Timor, Papua New Guinea, Solomon

Nov-Apr May-Oct

5°N

10°S

25°S 120°E 135°E 150°E 165°E 180° 165°W 120°E 135°E 150°E 165°E 180° 165°W

-0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 mm per day

The 18-model average change in rainfall for 2080-2099, relative to 1980-1999, under the A2 (high) emissions scenario. Regions where at least 80% of models agree on the direction of change are stippled.

10 Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa and the projections from different models. Work was undertaken showing how Federated States of Micronesia. The The Pacific Climate Futures web-tool ocean temperature and salinity have CCAM 8 km downscaled projections was developed in collaboration with changed over the past 60 years. show regional-scale variations of the the partner countries and involved Observational data sets of salinity were climate change signal, largely related to extensive testing. The web-based tool compiled and analysed for trends over the topography of partner countries. is available at a basic, intermediate the past 50 years. These showed a In collaboration with other international and advanced level. The Basic freshening trend in the western Pacific. organisations, five additional regional interface is freely available at www. Extensive work was undertaken to climate models were used to provide pacificclimatefutures.net, while the understand and analyse past changes 60 km downscaled projections. Intermediate and Advanced interfaces in the oceans and atmosphere and The main research finding was are also freely available for those how the global climate models perform. that although the various models who have undergone training. In particular, significant attention was used different dynamics, physics Pacific Climate Futures has been given to addressing climate model and model set-ups, the climate very well received by the partner drift, which is a spurious trend in change signal was broadly similar. countries as well as at the UNFCCC global-mean climate that can occur in 17th Conference of the Parties in some models without any change in A new methodology for statistical external forcing of the climate system. downscaling that provides improved Durban, South Africa. Training has been provided in all 15 countries and, based One model was rejected because forecast accuracy compared to other the drift was considered excessive. standard approaches was developed on the training evaluations, almost and validated. The methodology was half of those trained to Advanced Many partner countries are already applied to 17 climate stations in the level indicated they are now confident experiencing sea-level rise. The Pacific to provide projected daily climate in their ability to produce tailored observed sea-level rise since 1972 can data for 2021-2040 as well as the projections for impact assessments in be well explained by ocean warming corresponding base-period simulations their country. This is a very significant and glacier melt with additional (1981-2000). Projections were also outcome as, for many participants, contributions from the ice sheets and prepared for the period 2046-2065 for this was their first exposure to climate changes in terrestrial storage. Sea level 12 locations. The countries for which projections work. The PCCSP has in the region has risen by 2 to 10 mm/ statistical downscaling was performed succeeded in developing a tool that year from 1993-2009, which is up to were Cook Islands, Federated States simplifies the communication of three times the global average of of Micronesia, Fiji, Marshall Islands, climate projections and provides the 3.2 mm/year. Regional sea-level change Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. functionality needed by the impacts can be significantly affected by low- Climate data from other islands were of and adaptation communities in frequency (interannual to interdecadal) insufficient quality to produce reliable the PCCSP partner countries. modes of climate variability. The statistical downscaled projections. The The PCCSP has provided advice PCCSP prepared projections for results of the statistical downscaling on the most robust and up-to- the region based primarily on the generally supported the results from date projections available for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. the global climate models and show development of AusAID’s country- Model projections were compared a projected increase in average daily specific climate change profiles. with observational estimates where rainfall in most locations for most available, and model calculations were host models. Average maximum and 2.1.5 Ocean processes undertaken to determine how long minimum temperature are consistently and changes it takes for a melting ice sheet signal projected to increase in all locations The atmosphere and the ocean are to be experienced in the Pacific. The regardless of which global climate closely linked, so it is vital to understand results showed that regional projections model predictors are used to drive the nature of the interaction and how of sea-level rise in the PCCSP region the statistical downscaling. it will change with global warming. are close to the global averaged rise Changes in the ocean will also directly for three different emissions scenarios The PCCSP applied a new approach affect biological systems including and three different time periods. called Climate Futures to deliver fisheries and coral reefs. The PCCSP Projections for the period 2081-2100 projection information to partner worked with partner countries to for the A1B (medium) emissions countries. This approach groups the understand how the increased heat scenario are shown in the figure on projections from individual models entering the ocean will change ocean page 12. Ice sheet contributions to form a set of internally consistent currents, salinity, temperatures are very uncertain at this stage. climate futures, which is a more and the supply of nutrients. scientifically robust method than mixing

11 20 20 20 Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia 24 22 10°N Palau 24 22 20 22 20

Nauru Kiribati 0°

20

Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Tuvalu

East Timor 20 10°S Samoa 20 Vanuatu Fiji Cook Islands Tonga Niue 20 20 20°S 0 250 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Kilometres 20 20 22

130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E 180° 170°W 160°W 150°W

35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 cm Sea-level rise projections for the A1B (medium) emissions scenario for the average over 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 are indicated by the shading, with the estimated uncertainty in the projections indicated by the contours (in cm).

The ocean is a major sink for are considered marginal for supporting specific scientific and data requests, atmospheric carbon dioxide. It absorbs healthy reefs (Ω < 3.5) will occur in the there was direct contact between about one quarter of the carbon Central Equatorial Pacific in the next PCCSP scientists and government dioxide emissions resulting from human few decades. The reef ecosystems officers. The communication process activities each year. This helps to in the region of the South Equatorial was endorsed by each country and slow the rate of atmospheric carbon Current will be the last to experience worked well. Strong relationships dioxide increase but results in ocean these conditions. All reefs in the were developed with key contacts. acidification. This in turn decreases Pacific Island region are predicted Ongoing engagement with the partner the capacity of reef building corals, to be exposed marginal growing countries and regional organisations calcareous algae and many other key conditions (Ω < 3.5) by about 2050, was an important part of the capacity species in tropical ecosystems to grow with the lowest values of Ω expected building under PCCSP. Direct calcium carbonate skeletons and shells. for the highest emissions scenario. engagement took place during in- Historical data were compiled for the country visits and regional workshops 2.2 Building capacity Pacific Island region and were used to and at other times engagement calculate the aragonite saturation state of partner countries in was via e-mail and telephone. The (Ω) of the seawater. An offline carbonate climate change science countries were kept informed about chemistry model coupled to IPCC AR4 2.2.1 Process for engagement significant milestones in the Program model projections was used to project and their feedback was actively With a Program involving more changes in aragonite saturation state encouraged as PCCSP research than 60 research scientists, and for the period 2010-2090. An ensemble continued and tools and products stakeholders in 15 partner countries, of six models under high, medium and were produced. For example, partner it was important to establish a clear low emissions scenarios was used. country representatives provided method of engagement. PCCSP Results showed the mean value of Ω feedback and input to the design of Focal Points were established in each in surface waters of the study region the Pacific Climate Futures web-based country - for the most part, these were has declined from about 4.6 in pre- tool and CliDE, the climate database representatives from agencies charged industrial times to present day values management system, and their input with the environment portfolio. PCCSP of about 3.7. Surface seawater Ω was also sought in the preparation Technical Representatives were also varies spatially and temporally. Some of products such as the PCCSP identified and these were generally from countries are surrounded by waters brochures and the final publication the NMS. Communication was usually with Ω fluctuating seasonally between Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific directed to the Focal Point and copied 3.5 and 3.9. Regionally, conditions that Assessment and New Research. to the Technical Representatives. For

12 Recognising that air travel contributes Table 2: Collaboration with regional organisations a significant amount of carbon dioxide Organisation Examples of collaboration into the atmosphere, the additional carbon generated by all PCCSP related SPREP • Joint regional workshop on ‘Interim Climate air travel and events was offset through Projections’ held in Cairns, March 2010 tree planting programs in Western • PCCSP presentations on ‘Climate Projections’ at SPREP- Australia. Similar programs have not yet PACC regional workshop, held in Samoa, April 2010 been identified in the partner countries. • Involvement of SPREP in the PCCSP sessions Collaboration with regional at Greenhouse 2011, Cairns, April 2011 organisations was also another • Showcasing of PCCSP’s main publication Climate major focus during the PCCSP. This Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and was extremely important for building New Research at a SPREP- sponsored side event at sustainability and regional ownership COP17 in Durban, South Africa, December 2011 of the PCCSP. Important collaborative relationships were established USP • Collaboration with the USP Conference on ‘Future with the Secretariat of the Pacific challenges, ancient solutions’ held in Suva, Fiji, December Community (SPC), Pacific Islands 2010: PCCSP sponsorship and presentations Applied Geoscience Commission (SPC-SOPAC), Secretariat of the Pacific • Presentation of the PCCSP interim results at a Regional Environment Programme Training & Capacity Building Regional Workshop on (SPREP), United Nations Development ‘Climate Variability and Change in PICs: Impacts, Programme (UNDP), University of Vulnerability and Adaptation, November 2010’ Hawai’i, University of the South Pacific • Attachment of USP graduate student to PCCSP to (USP), National Institute of Water and undertake joint work on ocean acidification Atmospheric Research (NIWA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency NIWA • Joint input to the Samoa Climate Early Warning System (NOAA) and Environment Canada. Table with the establishment of CliDE, November 2010 2 provides some examples to illustrate • Collaboration with further applications of CliDE the varied nature of the collaboration. and development of a CliDEsc application that Within the framework of the ICCAI, will be led by NIWA, mid 2011 onwards the PCCSP has also collaborated directly with PASAP, e.g. in the Developing fair and secure data • PCCSP Climate Data, Variability implementation of the PCCSP Climate sharing arrangements between PCCSP and Change Research and and Ocean Projections Workshop, scientists and partner countries has Training Workshop, Darwin, held in Cairns, 22-26 March 2010. The been a key priority that was first 31 May – 9 June 2010. PCCSP is represented on the PASAP discussed at the PCCSP Regional • International Scientific Research Management Committee and this has Workshop held in Vanuatu, October Workshop on the South Pacific improved connections between the 2009. As a result of those discussions, Convergence Zone, Samoa, two Programs, highlighted synergies an Interim Agreement on Data Security 23-26 August 2010; and and limitations, and led to modification Arrangements was prepared and sent of some PCCSP milestones so to partner countries in November 2009. • PCCSP Climate Futures Workshop, that the scientific findings could This was followed by a Memorandum 31 March – 1 April 2011, Cairns better inform adaptation planning of Understanding for longer-term data and partner country involvement in work. Interim projections from the sharing arrangements that was sent the Greenhouse 2011 conference, Pacific Climate Futures tool were to partner countries in March 2011. Cairns 4-8 April 2011. provided to PASAP in May 2011. The workshop in Vanuatu was attended 2.2.2 Regional workshops, Presentations on the PCCSP were by 35 participants, of which 16 were conferences and events made at several international events, from PCCSP’s partner countries’ NMS. e.g. the Pacific Climate Change Round Five PCCSP regional workshops Representatives from DCCEE, SPC and Table held in the Marshall Islands, have been conducted: the World Meteorological Organization October 2009, and in Niue, 2011. • PCCSP Regional Workshop, (WMO) also attended. The workshop More than 70 presentations on the Vanuatu, 12-16 October 2009; achieved its three main objectives: PCCSP science were made by PCCSP • PCCSP Climate and Ocean • Partner country representatives scientists at regional and international Projections Workshop, Cairns, described their country’s current conferences and workshops between 22-26 March 2010; climate, how their climate is July 2009 and June 2011. changing, climate data management status, and climate change issues;

13 • PCCSP scientists introduced the national planning, resource allocation, • Interim projections for climate and detailed components of the PCCSP and/or mainstreaming of climate ocean changes across the whole and obtained feedback; and change and environment issues across PCCSP region were presented • Progress was made on creating government. Representatives from and feedback received; and a sense of ownership of the AusAID, DCCEE, NIWA, SPC and • The prototype of the Pacific PCCSP among partner countries SPREP also attended the meeting. Climate Futures software tool so as to encourage their active The first four days of the program for creating national and some and ongoing participation. were devoted to PCCSP and the sub-national projections was fifth day to PASAP. The workshop tested and feedback received. The March 2010 workshop in Cairns achieved its three main objectives: was conducted in partnership with After the success of the workshop SPREP and PASAP. This five-day • Participants’ knowledge of in Cairns, partners at SPREP invited workshop was attended by a total of observed climate trends, drivers the PCCSP to give a one-day 63 participants, of which 25 were from of climate variability, global presentation on climate and ocean the PCCSP’s 15 partner countries. climate model applications and projections at the Pacific Adaptation The majority of the partner country their reliability, and the benefits of to Climate Change (PACC) Project representatives came from their downscaling was enhanced; Workshop held in Samoa from country’s administration engaged in 10-14 April 2010. Three PCCSP scientists conducted the session and again there was considerable interest among the Pacific country representatives in the preliminary atmospheric and oceanic projection information that was presented. The workshop in Darwin was attended by 54 participants, 29 of whom were from NMS and related agencies in all 15 partner countries. This workshop was also attended by representatives from DCCEE, Environment Canada, NOAA, NIWA and SPREP.

Pacific Climate Futures training in the Cook Islands.

Pacific Climate Futures training in Papua New Guinea.

Greenhouse 2011: Poster presentation training.

14 The Darwin workshop program workshop which brought the world’s The partner country representatives introduced concepts relating to climate leading experts on the SPCZ together wrote and submitted abstracts for data management, data quality control, with representatives from the NMS in a scientific poster on the climate, trend analysis and correlation with those partner countries impacted by climate variability and change of climate driver indices. Participants the SPCZ. This workshop was the first their country. The participants then were introduced to a newly designed international meeting on the SPCZ presented these posters at two poster climate database management system and was endorsed by World Climate sessions during the conference. and two data analysis web portals, Research Programme on Climate Three participants also submitted and feedback was obtained. Global Variability and Predictability International abstracts for verbal presentations climate models, and climate and ocean Pacific Implementation Panel. The which they presented during the projections, were also introduced and workshop was sponsored by the Pacific sessions at the conference. the climate futures tool for country- PCCSP and several other international Overall this program provided an specific projections was demonstrated. organisations. The objectives of opportunity for representatives from The highlight of the last three days of the workshop were to advance the PCCSP’s 15 partner countries to the workshop was the preparation of the understanding of the structure, work with PCCSP scientists to build country-specific climate summaries, physics, properties and impact of the capacity in communicating climate accompanied by PowerPoint SPCZ together with its simulation. The science through the development presentations by each partner country. workshop was extremely successful of their poster. It also encouraged During the following months, partner and achieved its objectives. participants to liaise, collaborate countries and PCCSP scientists further In April 2011, a two-day workshop and further their understanding of developed these summaries to form on the Pacific Climate Futures web- climate science by taking part in a the basis of part of the Country Reports tool was combined with participation conference attended by internationally in Volume 2 of Climate Change in the at the Greenhouse 2011 conference. renowned climate scientists. Pacific and the country brochures. One participant from each PCCSP Follow-up with the participants after The high standard of these summaries partner country and the climate at Darwin was a clear indication of the Greenhouse 2011 conference change focal point from SPREP, were showed that resources and skills the benefits of the PCCSP’s capacity invited to attend the Greenhouse building and training activities. fostered under this (and other) PCCSP 2011 conference with the support capacity-building initiative continue to An international workshop on the SPCZ of the PCCSP. Thirteen Pacific be utilised in partner countries beyond was held in Samoa from 24-26 August island representatives attended, the point of their initial introduction. 2010. Thirty participants attended the plus two Pacific island journalists. 2.2.3 In-country training

Utilisation of PCCSP resources and skills after participating in regional workshops Towards the end of 2010, the focus of the PCCSP’s capacity building turned 80% from regional events to in-country visits for the purposes of installing CliDE and Pacific Climate Futures and providing training in their use, 60% as well as communication of other PCCSP findings to partner countries. CliDE was successfully installed in 14 PCCSP partner countries and the 40% PCCSP trained 83 people in the tool. It will be installed in Nauru under the PACCSAP program. Over 95% of the trainees reported feeling comfortable 20% or very comfortable with operating the database. During these visits, the PCCSP team organised climate science workshops that reached over 150 0% people. These visits assisted in bringing

Used the poster Used the abstract from the poster from the abstract Used the information Used the information Presented the poster Prepared a similar posterPresentedcontained on information in the poster

15 3 CliDE location Marshall Islands 33 Federated States of Micronesia 33 3 Climate Futures

Palau 33 10ºN

3 Kiribati

Nauru 0º

Papua New Guinea 33 Kiribati 33 Kiribati

Solomon Islands 33 Tuvalu 33

East Timor 33 10ºS Samoa 33 Vanuatu 33 Fiji 33

Cook Islands 33 Tonga 33 Niue 33

0 250 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 20ºS Kilometres 130ºE 140ºE 150ºE 160ºE 170ºE 180º 170ºW 160ºW 150ºW In-country training visits for CliDE and Pacific Climate Futures. climate change stakeholders in partner Pacific Climate Futures training was their work. Over 95% of participants countries together. In particular they successfully provided by 37 scientific who completed the Intermediate and helped to promote the role of the NMS and coordination officers to a diverse Advanced Climate Futures training in managing and providing climate data range of stakeholders in 15 PCCSP felt confident using the tool to provide that are vital to understanding climate partner countries, with over 350 people projections to stakeholders. change and to informing adaptation trained in the Basic interface and over projects being undertaken by different 100 people trained in the Intermediate “Knowing how to use Climate Futures sectors. CliDE was very well received: and Advanced interfaces. Training in is a big plus for us as advisors to the Basic interface was preceded by an government’s key policymakers “It is so vital because it assists to introduction to climate change science on planning, development, store important data and helps me to workshop, attended by participants infrastructure, agriculture and zoning” search for data needed from people. It from a number of government sectors – Federated States of Micronesia has improved my knowledge on how (including NMS), NGOs and regional to store and output data” – Kiribati organisations - this enhanced their “My project will benefit greatly as understanding of climate variability and the information that will be provided “For me, I am personally proud climate change, climate projections and will ensure better and informed because it is for the first time to other areas of interest such as extreme project management giving a have such training” – East Timor sea level and tropical cyclones. Over better direction on infrastructure 95% of participants who attended resources to capitalize on” – Nauru this workshop found it to be useful for

Pacific Climate Futures training in Nauru. CliDE training in Vanuatu.

16 During the in-country visits to install Special Services from the Papua New Participants were very positive CliDE and Pacific Climate Futures Guinea National Weather Service each about their attachments in the several other capacity building spent six weeks working with their evaluations, highlighting the clear activities were conducted, including: PCCSP colleagues at the Bureau of link between the work they were • Scientists from the PCCSP Meteorology. A Masters student from doing and the strengthening of conducted seminars on topics the University of the South Pacific their capacity to complete their of particular relevance to specific in Fiji spent two weeks working with duties in their home countries. countries, such as: climate PCCSP colleagues at CSIRO Hobart. “The attachment has been extremely features; tropical cyclones; extreme The participant from Samoa focused beneficial. It was provided the sea level; the South Pacific on documenting the trends in observed exposure to the experts, the tools and Convergence Zone; climate change and modelled air temperature over working conditions in which assists and oceans and climate data the South Pacific region, assigning in the professional development management, tools and trends; statistical significance to this and of Samoa’s representative. The determining the extent to which the • Liaison, relationship building and experience gained from the pattern of observed trends resembles promotion of PCCSP: Consolidating attachment has allowed for reflection the pattern of modelled trends. The and building stronger relationships and to explore avenues through participant from Papua New Guinea with partners in government, innovative thinking for which research focussed on relating the drivers of the regional organisations and development activities in Samoa climate of Papua New Guinea with other climate related projects Meteorology can be initiated” – observed station data and will present in partner countries; and Samoa Meteorology Department this research in an oral presentation • Many articles were published at the 10th International Conference “I can say with great confidence that and interviews conducted as a on Meteorology and Oceanography in the attachment has greatly enhanced result of media alerts written and Noumea in April 2012. The participant my professional career development. disseminated to local media from Fiji worked on observations of Even though I enjoyed all the during the visits. This helped build the carbonate system and ocean aspect of the attachment, the actual the PCCSP and the Australian acidification in the Western Pacific analysis of the data and conducting Government’s profile, as well and will also present this work at the statistical analysis was the one that as promote the profile of the conference in Noumea in April 2012. NMS and other local agencies. stood out for me personally. The Each attachment included site-visits benefit of working with respected 2.2.4 Attachments to CSIRO in Aspendale and Hobart to Bureau scientist and creating that In 2011, three Pacific islanders meet with PCCSP scientists working in bond and understanding was a huge were seconded to the PCCSP with other areas of the program. Participants boost for my future work as far as the purpose of building the climate were required to produce certain networking is concerned” – Papua science research capacity. The outputs, ranging from presentations New Guinea National Weather Service Principal Scientific Officer of Climate to colleagues at the Bureau of and Ozone Services from the Samoa Meteorology and CSIRO, to co- Meteorology Department and the authored papers and oral presentations Assistant Director of Climate and to be given at international conferences.

Pacific Climate Futures training in Palau.

17 2.3 Information dissemination Data, Variability and Change Research 1000 other contacts. It was also sent and Training Workshop, Darwin, to the UN Small Islands List Serve, 2.3.1 Preparation and 31 May – 9 June 2010 wrote. These the UN Climate List Serve and the publication of Climate Change summaries formed the basis for Pacific Climate group email list. in the Pacific: Scientific these reports and partner countries This event and subsequent media Assessment and New Research provided significant contribution release resulted in substantial media Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific to Volume 2 as it developed. The coverage across a range of outlets. Assessment and New Research was Volume 2 report also formed the basis Analysis indicated there were 141 published at the end of 2011. This for the summary brochures which pieces of coverage. This was made two-volume 530 page report provides representatives from each partner up of 95 stories by Australian media the most extensive compilation of country extensively reviewed. outlets and 46 from overseas including: climate change science research The report was laid out and • Print in Australia – 4 ever undertaken for the Pacific. designed by CSIRO designers. • National Radio – 1 The report development followed the Editing and proof reading was IPCC model of a series of drafts starting undertaken by a combination of • Overseas Radio – 6 internal and external contractors. with a Zero Order Draft (completed July • Online Australian – 90 2010), a First Order Draft (completed As of 31 December 2011, 26 peer • Online overseas – 40 February 2011) and a Second Order reviewed papers and three book Draft (completed July 2011), with the chapters had been published or were The release and findings ofClimate final version completed in October in press in academic journals, five Change in the Pacific (CCiP) were 2011. The report was coordinated by papers had been submitted and 23 covered in several Australian daily a group of nine lead authors, three were in preparation. Many of these newspapers including The Age scientific editors and small coordination papers are cited in the report, further (Page 5), The Sydney Morning Herald, and communication team. The supporting the robust nature of the The Australian, and The Advertiser. coordinating lead authors met monthly. science contained in the report. Scott Power was interviewed for The report also had ten other lead segments on the ABC Radio’s The 2.3.2 Launch and distribution authors, over 100 contributing authors World Today and Pacific Beat. Kevin of Climate Change in the from CSIRO, BoM, Pacific government Hennessy was also interviewed live on Pacific: Scientific Assessment agencies and regional organisations. Radio Australia. There was also some and New Research The First Order Draft and Second international coverage ranging from Order Draft of the report were peer- The report was released in Australia the UK’s Telegraph, Scoop in New reviewed by Dr Graeme Pearman on 25 November 2011 and two of the Zealand, and Samoa’s Talamua. A (Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd) scientific editors, Scott Power (Bureau short story which focused on the ocean and Dr Anthony Chen (University of of Meteorology) and Kevin Hennessy related findings of CCiP aired on the the West Indies). Partner countries (CSIRO) were delegated spokespeople. Australia Network’s ABC news which and regional organisations, in addition The launch involved a 45-minute online broadcasts to over 40 countries across to DCCEE and AusAID, also reviewed media briefing hosted by the Australian Asia and the Pacific. Subsequent news and provided feedback on the drafts. Science Media Centre. Scott Power stories were also seen promoted on All reviews were documented in and Kevin Hennessy presented for twitter.com. Radio Australia, Pacific comments registers and authors were 10 minutes, highlighting key findings Beat, ABC Environment and 14 other asked to address the comments via from Climate Change in the Pacific. A users ‘tweeted’ links to articles written this system. The three scientific editors question and answer session followed. about the Climate Change in the as well as peers within CSIRO and Twenty journalists attended along with Pacific release. It should be noted that BoM also provided extensive internal ten other attendees. This included all Pacific coverage is likely to be an peer review to ensure the scientific a number of Pacific journalists who underestimate due to the difficulty in integrity and rigour of the report. were in Australia as part of an Asia evaluating local media in the Pacific. Pacific Journalism Centre Program. Volume 2 of the report contains On 6 December 2011, the report individual country reports on the Immediately following this event, a was highlighted at a joint Australian current and future climate of each media release was sent via the CSIRO Government / Secretariat of the of the 15 partner countries. These media database reaching over 2800 Pacific Environment Programme Event reports were developed from the contacts. This media release was held at the 17th Conference of the country climate summaries that also sent out to all PCCSP media and Parties (COP17) to the United Nations participants at the PCCSP Climate general contacts reaching more than Framework Convention on Climate

18 Change (UNFCCC) in Durban. The • John Moffat Fugui, Minister A distribution and dissemination plan event was opened by the Australian for the Environment, Climate was developed for all publications. Minister for Climate Change, the Change, Disaster Management, Implementation of this plan Honourable Greg Combet, and also Solomon Islands. commenced in November/December included opening remarks from the The event was promoted via fliers 2011. As a show of recognition to Honourable Ronald Aisiki, Papua New distributed widely at the venue, an the partner countries and as a way Guinea’s Vice Minister for Climate entry submitted to the COP17 daily to facilitate the sharing of these Change and Forestry. The Master of program, UN email list serves, Pacific publications with local audiences, in- Ceremonies was Netatua Pelesikoti, email list serve, distribution of fliers country contacts were encouraged to Director of the Climate Change Division to media and personal invitations. hold national launches of the brochures in SPREP. Presentations included: and reports. This key component of Minister Combet’s office issued • Climate Change in the Pacific the ongoing dissemination strategy a media release which created commenced with a launch in Vanuatu – Scientific Assessment and additional media interest. New Research: Scott Power held simultaneously with the Australian Channel 10’s the 7pm Project media launch. The in-country launches • Climate science needs in the highlighted CCiP and some of its will continue during 2012. This Pacific: Ms Rossylynn Pulehetoa- key findings as a lead-in to the involves working with the partner Mitiepo, Coordinator Niue Climate program’s story on COP17: countries to not only facilitate and Change Project, Department of support a launch event, but also to Meteorology and Climate Change “New research today has spelled actively support their plans to share • Pacific Climate Futures: Making disaster for some of our Pacific the research with their stakeholders. climate projections accessible for neighbours. The CSIRO and Bureau The reports have been well-received adaptation planning, Mr Salesa of Meteorology has confirmed in-country and also amongst Kaniaha, Vanuatu Meteorology what Pacific nations have known researchers in the Pacific: and Geo-hazard Department, for years, which is that their islands Ministry of Infrastructure and are being swallowed by the ocean. “I am finding the report very Public Utilities, Vanuatu Fiji, Papua New Guinea, the Cook very useful. Besides the work in Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu and many • The Secretariat of the Pacific Pacific Islands, I do a lot of work more, are facing increased extreme Community’s New Book on Climate in the Coral Triangle region with rainfall, hotter days, warmer nights Change, Brian Dawson, Senior climate adaptation and we are and rising sea levels. For countries Climate Change Advisor, SPC using and guiding people to the like Tuvalu, gardens no longer grow report constantly. Really nice • Pacific overview and vote and it may be the first country work, we joke that we wish you of thanks, David Sheppard, to be eradicated as a result of guys would do the same thing Director General SPREP. climate change...” – 7pm Project for the US States, Territories and The event was very well attended Freely Associated States in the by many Pacific Islanders including This story was syndicated on 29 Pacific” –Lead Coordinating Editor several UNFCCC National Focal points. stations across Australia. This story of the Pacific Islands, Regional The demand to attend the event represents a notable inclusion in Climate Assessment (PIRCA) effort outweighed the capacity of the venue. Australian mainstream media. for the Marine, Freshwater and Although the venue only allowed for Gillian Cambers did two interviews in Terrestrial Ecosystems on Pacific 50 seats, during Minister Combet’s relation to the PCCSP side event at Islands in the Assessment, NOAA speech over 70 people were present. COP17, including one live with ABC’s Other high-level attendees included: the World Today and one with ABC 2.3.3 Preparation of brochures in English and local languages • Ewen McDonald, AusAID Radio’s Pacific Beat. Subsequent print Deputy Director General stories were also produced across In response to the need to provide ABC’s online platforms. One of the scientific information to different • Dr Subho Banerjee, Deputy ABC stories was also syndicated audiences, a series of brochure Secretary of the Adaptation, in the Solomon Star newspaper. products were developed over the International & Regulatory Group course of the PCCSP. This included two A complete list of media coverage from • Julia Feeney, Director in the UN regional brochures and 15 individual the Climate Change in Pacific launch Security Council Taskforce Department brochures summarising the current and events is provided at Appendix 2. of Foreign Affairs and Trade future climate of each partner country. • Louise Hand, Australia’s Climate Change Ambassador

19 The two regional brochures were Following the release, electronic through the ICCAI Platform. developed in response to requests versions of the brochures were made Each country brochure is being for specific events. The first of these available on the PCCSP website and an translated into one local language per was a six-page brochure, which announcement was provided to partner country for release early next year. targets leaders or the PCCSP partner countries, people on the PCCSP Translations are being managed by countries. This brochure outlined contacts database, the United Nations the University of the South Pacific’s the purpose and objectives of the Small Islands States List Serve, the Language Centre, checked by PCCSP and some background to United Nations Climate List Serve, the national meteorological services and climate change in the Pacific. This was Pacific Network email list and the Red departments of language in partner distributed to Pacific Island country Cross regional newsletter. In addition, countries, and sent to contacts at leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum brochures were distributed to all partner AusAID Posts before printing. held in Port Vila from 3-6 August 2010. countries, regional organisations and The second regional product was an internal stakeholders with a distribution 2.3.4 Launching PCCSP tools eight-page brochure about Climate survey for monitoring and evaluation Two web-based climate tools (the Variability and Change in the Pacific purposes and to encourage the in- Pacific Tropical Cyclone data portal islands and East Timor. This was country launch process. The brochures and the Pacific Climate Change Data distributed to participants at side events were also widely distributed and Portal) and the climate database at the 16th Conference of the Parties highlighted at the side-event at COP17. management system (CliDE) (COP 16) in Cancun in December In-country launches of the brochures were launched at the Regional 2010. Both of these brochures were were held in Kiribati and Samoa and Meteorological Services Directors also used extensively on in-country the brochures were launched alongside Meeting in Majuro, Republic of the visits as awareness raising resources. the report in Vanuatu in November Marshall Islands on 10 August 2011. The individual country brochures 2011. The country brochures were A media release was distributed to that summarise the climate of the 15 very well-received. Some examples of the PCCSP media contacts database partner countries were developed feedback from the countries include: on the morning of the launch. This with extensive input provided by “Thanks so much to the team for your included over 100 contacts from local representatives from each of the assistance throughout the years in media organisations from partner partner countries. These also preparing this, it is a very excellent countries, Pacific-wide media as well underwent internal review and piece of work and good to use Nauru as Australian and New Zealand Pacific- drafts were reviewed by the PCCSP for awareness purposes” – Nauru focused media. Nanette Woonton Management Committee. The (SPREP) distributed our media release brochures summarise the findings for “There were some positive feedback to SPREP’s contact database. On each country contained in Volume 2 from people from different sectors 11 August, an updated media release of the report in a user-friendly format – they find the information very and an accompanying photo from the suitable for a wider audience. useful, ideal for sector planning. launch was sent to meteorological The timing of these brochures was A Land Management Officer of departments of all partner countries. advanced in response to a request MNRE thought it was an excellent This included a vote of thanks for to have them ready in time to be publication. It was one of the most support as well as a suggestion to launched at the 2011 Pacific Islands popular brochure on the day since pass the release on to local media Forum. This proved challenging as we have about a few left at the end of contacts. The media release was the brochure summaries needed the day from the 100 we received. So published in the 12 August issue of to be developed in parallel with the we might need some more in future. the Marshall Islands Journal as was a completion of the Climate Change in We like to thank you for the support follow up article on the launch in the the Pacific report. Unfortunately the extended to us thus far” – Samoa 19 August issue. An announcement launch did not occur at the Pacific was also sent to the PCCSP database Islands Forum. The brochures were In response to requests from partner of over 800 Pacific contacts. countries, as well as part of a continued later released and highlighted in the The Pacific Climate Futures tool was effort to share the comprehensive Australian Foreign Minister Kevin officially launched and highlighted research and engage with regional Rudd’s opening remarks to a meeting at the joint Australian Government- audiences, each country brochure will of Commonwealth and Developing SPREP side-event at COP17 in be translated into a local language. As Small States’ Foreign Ministers held December 2011. Salesa Kaniaha funding was not available through the in Perth on 25 October 2011 in from the Vanuatu Meteorology and PCCSP for this, additional funding to the lead up to the Commonwealth Geo-hazard Department presented complete this activity was approved Heads of Government Meeting. an overview presentation of the tool

20 and demonstrated how it could be which was lacking in the past… her networks with Pacific scientists. used to inform adaptation planning Now with the availability of these She recommended further training and risk management. There tools and information, we can now was needed for journalists from was an overwhelmingly positive improve on our climate services, the 15 PCCSP partner countries. response to the tool with a member not only providing information Following her attendance at of the audience from the Caribbean on the current climate but also Greenhouse 2011, Rozalee was requesting the tool be developed what is the likely future climate awarded the Solomon Islands for other regions of the world. scenario” – Solomon Islands RAMSI Special Coordinators Media Encouragement Award, particularly 2.3.5 Media coverage Local media were very responsive to for her reporting on environmental and capacity building media alerts issued jointly with the issues such as climate change. The PCCSP media strategy focused local contact agency in each country. Five other programs broadcast or particularly on the release of the new Almost all visits have seen coverage in published stories on climate change research towards the end of 2011. local media, usually print media. Media in the Pacific or the Pacific Climate However, opportunistic activities were monitoring in the Pacific is extremely Change Science Program during the also pursued with a particular emphasis challenging so exact numbers are hard conference, including the lead story on media in partner countries. At least to ascertain; a minimum estimate would on AM-ABC Radio National on 4 April 219 media items were published or be 41 items of coverage. However, 2011, the first day of the conference. broadcast as a result of the PCCSP many local radio stations for example Four of these were radio and one was activities. The focus of these falls would air the story five to ten times in a print and one was a New Zealand radio into three broad categories: media day increasing the audience reached. program. Several participants from as a result of the two launches of During the Greenhouse 2011 PCCSP partner countries attending Climate Change in the Pacific (154), conference, the PCCSP team sought the conference were interviewed for the Greenhouse 2011 conference (24) the opportunity to raise the profile of stories. Four of these stories were and in-country visits (at least 41). the PCCSP in the lead up to the release the result of a PCCSP media alert or Visits to PCCSP partner countries of research results later in the year. As proactive contact by the PCCSP. have been highlighted by local media a result of PCCSP efforts, 24 media Due to the difficulty in monitoring on many occasions. PCCSP teams stories were published or broadcast media in the Pacific countries, it is were briefed on the local media and during the conference (Appendix 3). hard to establish if they were published techniques for engaging with the media Many of these were produced by more widely. However, some of the before departing and were provided the two Pacific journalists who were stories were picked up by at least with a media alert and local media sponsored to attend the conference six other Pacific news/websites. contacts. Media alerts were typically as part of a PCCSP capacity building bolstered with quotes from PCCSP program conducted in partnership The PCCSP-sponsored partner partner country representatives, e.g. with SPREP. The sponsored journalists country participants at Greenhouse were Pita Liguala, a Fijian print 2011 were also offered the opportunity “PCCSP Climate Futures will help us journalist from the regional service to undertake an interview to camera to access and provide better scientific PACNEWS and Rozalee Nongebatu during the conference. Many of the information need for Palau to plan from Solomon Islands Broadcasting participants found this an excellent for future climate change.” – Palau Corporation (SIBC). Twelve stories were learning opportunity in building their written by Pita Liguala and published communication skills. Some of these “The PCCSP tool will enhance by PACNEWS. Rozalee Nongebatu interviews were used to produce our ability to include climate broadcast seven stories on SIBC a short video that was played change considerations in radio during the conference and two during the COP17 side-event. This national development plans and follow-up stories after the conference. video has been extremely useful strategies” – Papua New Guinea at a range of outreach events. A report by Rozalee about how she benefited from the experience Over the course of the PCCSP, a media “I think Climate Futures is one of at Greenhouse 2011 and her contacts database was established the highlights of the Pacific Climate recommendations for future similar and relationships developed with Change Science Program… Basically, activities indicated that she found it media across the Pacific. The PCCSP information on the future climate or a great opportunity that broadened media database contains 112 Pacific- future climate scenarios is something her knowledge base and developed focused and based journalists.

21 In November 2011 PCCSP scientists 2.3.6 Website and e-newsletter did a one day climate change science The PCCSP website www. 3. The way workshop for 14 Asia Pacific editors pacificclimatechangescience.org and senior journalists. The journalists forward was written and designed in the were in Australia as part of an During 2010, a gaps and needs second half of 2010 and went live in AusAID supported a five-week Asia analysis of climate change science December 2010. Visitor tracking did Pacific Journalism Centre program in the region was conducted. This not commence until August 2011. on reporting climate change and was based on feedback from partner the environment. The journalists Media releases, launch events countries and regional organisations were very receptive and particularly and subsequent media coverage during three regional workshops interested in the new information generated significant activity on the and several in-country visits. The available about their countries in PCCSP website. During the seven- analysis highlighted areas that need the country-specific brochures. week period encompassing the three to be addressed after the PCCSP launches (27 October – 15 December has been completed, namely: In addition to the media database, 2011), the PCCSP website had a emphasis was also placed on • Broader communication of total of 4751 visits. This was a 550% establishing a contact database in order climate change science to increase in visits when compared to to continue to effectively communicate partner country stakeholders; the seven-week period immediately with stakeholders. The country preceding (7 September – 26 October). • Further capacity building engagement activities and workshops During the launch period, visitors and education; which helped communicate the basics from 109 different countries accessed • Reducing uncertainty in atmospheric of climate change science and the the website. The majority of visitors and oceanic projections; tools also provided an opportunity to accessed the site from Australia build this extensive contacts database. • Robust attribution of climate (46%), the USA (12%) and Fiji (9%). This database of 877 contacts was change to natural and/or used to communicate all major During the period Nov 25 – Dec 9 anthropogenic factors; 2011, the PCCSP website received announcements and used to track • Updated regional and country 6141 page views. Sixty percent of all our engagement with stakeholders. specific atmospheric and ocean page views were to the publications An extensive photo database was projections for 2020 to 2100 and page, which contains the CCiP also established under the PCCSP beyond for new Intergovernmental report and the Country Brochures to consolidate and manage images Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and facilitate use of images for An e-newsletter was designed with Fifth Assessment emission publications. This database contains the same look and feel of the website scenarios and climate simulations; and two editions were sent during the nearly 4000 images from the Pacific. • More detailed projections for course of the PCCSP. Unfortunately extreme events including co- resourcing did not allow for this to incident extreme events; and continue, but positive feedback was received on editions sent. • Detailed atmospheric and oceanic projections for selected economic sectors and regions. This analysis formed the basis for the follow-up climate change science, communication and capacity-building included in the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, which runs until June 2013.

22 Appendix 1: List of PCCSP Publications

Published Church, J.A. and White, N.J. 2011. Kuleshov, Y., De Wit, R., Schweitzer, Sea-level rise from the late 19th M., Phan, J., Dowdy, A. and Jones, D. Brown, J. R., Power, S. B., Delage, F. P., to the early 21st Century. Surveys 2011. Pacific Climate Change Science Colman, R. A., Moise A. F. and Murphy B. in Geophysics 32, 585-602, Program: Tropical Cyclone Data Portal F. 2011. Evaluation of the South Pacific DOI:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1. for the Southern Hemisphere, IUGG Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 climate 2011. Feature article published in July Clarke J.M., Whetton, P.H. and Hennessy, model simulations of the 20th century, issue of the Bulletin of the Pan Ocean K.J. 2011. Providing Application-specific Journal of Climate, Volume 24 (6), 1565- Remote Sensing Conference (PORSEC) Climate Projections Datasets: CSIRO’s 1582 doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1192-0. Association at: http://porsec.nwra.com/ Climate Futures Framework. In F. Chan, bulletins/PORSEC_Bulletin_v5_2.pdf Church, J. A., Aarup, T., Woodworth, P. D. Marinova and R.S. Anderssen (eds) L., Wilson, W. S., Nicholls, R. J., Rayner, MODSIM2011, 19th International McInnes, K.L., O’Grady, J.G., Walsh, R., Lambeck, K., Mitchum, G. T., Steffen, Congress on Modelling and Simulation. K.J.E. and Colberg, F. 2011. Progress K., Cazenave, A., Blewitt, G., Mitrovica, Perth, Western Australia. December towards quantifying storm surge risk in J. X. and Lowe, J. A. 2010. Chapter 13: 2011 pp. 2683-2690. (Modelling and Fiji due to climate variability and change. Sea-level Rise and Variability – Synthesis Simulation Society of Australia and J. Coastal Res. SI64. 1121-1124. and Outlook for the Future, in: J. A. New Zealand). www.mssanz.org.au/ Moise, A.F. and Delage, F.P. 2011. New Church, P. L. Woodworth, T. Aarup and modsim2011/D10/wongsosaputro.pdf. W. Stanley (Eds.), Understanding Sea- climate model metrics based on object- level Rise and Variability. Wilson. Wiley- Durack, P.J. and Wijffels, S. 2010. orientated pattern matching of rainfall. Blackwell Publishing, Chichester, UK. Fifty-year trends in global ocean Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, salinities and their relationship to broad- D12108, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015318. Church, J. A., Roemmich, D., Domingues, scale warming, Journal of Climate, Nguyen, K.C., Katzfey, J.J., and C. M., Willis, J. K., White, N. J., Gilson, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1 J. E., Stammer, D., Köhl, A., Chambers, McGregor, J.L., 2011. Global 60 km D. P., Landerer, F. W., Marotzke, J., Irving, D.B., Perkins, S.E., Brown, simulations with CCAM: evaluation Gregory, J., Suzuki, T., Cazenave, A. and J.R., Sen Gupta, A., Moise, A.F., over the tropics. Climate Dynamics, Traon, P.-Y. L. 2010. Chapter 6. Ocean Murphy, B.F., Muir, L., Coleman, R.A., Doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1197-8 Power, S.B., Wijffels, S.E. and Delage, temperature and salinity contributions to Perkins, S. 2011. Biases and model F.P. 2011. Selecting Global Climate global and regional sea-level change, in: J. agreement in projections of climate Models for regional climate change A. Church, P. L. Woodworth, T. Aarup and extremes over the tropical Pacific, projections: a case study for the Pacific W. Stanley (Eds.), Understanding Sea- Earth Interactions, 15, 1–36. doi: http:// island region, Climate Research, 49, level Rise and Variability. Wilson. Wiley- dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011EI395.1 Blackwell Publishing, Chichester, UK. 169-187. doi: 10.3354/cr01028. Perkins, P., Irving, D.B., Brown, J.R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S. and Howden, M. Church, J. A., Woodworth, P. L., Power, S.B., Murphy, B.F., Moise, 2011. Forecasting climate variables Aarup, T. and Wilson, W. S., Eds. A.F., Colman, R.A. and Delage, F.P. using a mixed-effect state-space 2010. Understanding Sea-level Rise 2011. CMIP3 ensemble climate model, Environmetrics. 22, 409-419 and Variability. Chichester, UK, Wiley- projections over the western tropical Blackwell Publishing, 427 pp. Knutson, T.R., McBride, J.L., Chan, Pacific based on model skill.Climate http://www.springerlink.com/ J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, Research, doi: 10.3354/cr01046. C., Held, I., Kossin, J.P., Srivastava, openurl.asp?genre=article&id=d Power, S., 2011. Understanding the A.K., and Sugi, M. 2010. Tropical oi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1 South Pacific Convergence Zone and cyclones and climate change: Nature its impacts, Eos Trans. AGU, 92(7), Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., White, N.J., Geoscience, v. 3, p. 157-163. Platten, S.M. and Mitrovica, J.X. 2011. 55, doi:10.1029/2011EO070006. Kuleshov, Y., Fawcett, R., Qi, L., Understanding and projecting sea level Power, S.B., Schiller, A., Cambers, G., Trewin, B., Jones, D., McBride, J. and change. Oceanography 24(2):130–143, Jones, D. and Hennessy, K. 2011. The Ramsay, H. 2010. Trends in tropical doi:10.5670/oceanog.2011.33. Pacific Climate Change Science Program. cyclones in the South Indian Ocean and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Church, J.A. White, N.J., Konikow, L.F., the South Pacific Ocean,Journal of Society, 92, 1409-1411, doi:http://dx.doi. Domingues, C.M., Cogley, J.G., Rignot E. Geophysical Research, 115, D01101, org/10.1175/BAMS-D-10-05001.1. and Gregory, J.M. 2011. Revisiting the doi:10.1029/2009JD012372 Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets for Walsh, K.J.E., McInnes, K.L. and Kuleshov, Y. Qi, L., Jones, D., Fawcett, 1961 to 2008. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, McBride, J.L. 2012. Climate change R., Chane-Ming, F., McBride J. and L18601, doi:10.1029/2011GL048794. impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme Ramsay, H. 2010: On developing a http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/ sea levels in the South Pacific – a regional tropical cyclone archive and climatology gl1118/2011GL048794/ assessment. Global and Planetary for the South Indian and South Pacific Change, 149-164, DOI information: Oceans, in book “Indian Ocean Tropical 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.006 Cyclones and Climate Change”, Ed. Y. Charabi, Springer, 189-197, doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-3109-9_23.

23 Woodworth, P.L., Church, J.A., Aarup, Zhang, X. and Church, J.A. Linear Lenton A. Projected changes in pH T. and Wilson, W.S. 2010. Chapter 1: trend of regional sea-level change and aragonite saturation state in the Introduction. In: Understanding Sea-level in the Pacific Ocean and its Western Pacific, in preparation for Rise and Variability, Eds. John A. Church, relationship with background decadal Geophysical Research Letters. Philip L. Woodworth, Thorkild Aarup oscillation. Journal of Climate. McGree, S., Collins, D., Jones, D., and W. Stanley Wilson. Wiley-Blackwell Campbell, B., Akapo, A., Diamond, Publishing, Chichester, UK. (427 pp; In preparation H., Fa’Anunu, O., Hiriasia, D., Hugony, ISBN: 978-1-4443-3452-4 (paperback); Brown, J.N., Brown, J.R., Muir, L., S., Inape, K., Jacklick, L., Moniz, T., 978-1-4443-3451-7 (hardback). Murphy, B., Risbey, J., Sen Gupta, A., Ngemases, M., Peltier, A., Porteois, Wijffels S.E. and Zhang X. Implications of A., Samson, P., Seuseu, S., Skilling, In press / accepted CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for E., Tahani, L., Talagi, F., Teimitsi, F., Brown, J.R., Moise, A.F. and climate projections in the western Pacific. Toorua, U., Vaiimene, M., Vuniyayawa Delage, F.P. 2011. Changes in the To be submitted to Journal of Climate. V. and Vavae H. An updated analysis of homogeneous rainfall trends at SPCZ in IPCC AR4 future climate Chand, S.S, McBride, J.L., Tory K.J. Pacific Island stations and East Timor. projections. Climate Dynamics. and Walsh K.J.E. Contrasting austral Likely to submit to Climatic Change. Dowdy, A., and Kuleshov, Y. 2011. An summer ENSO regimes and their analysis of tropical cyclone occurrence impacts on tropical cyclones over McInnes, K.L., O’Grady, J.G., Walsh in the Southern Hemisphere derived the central southwest Pacific. K.J.E. and Colberg F. Progress towards quantifying storm surge risk in Fiji due from a new satellite-era dataset, Chattopadhyay, M. and Abbs, D. to climate variability and change, Paper International Journal of Remote Sensing. Influence of large scale circulation on TC for International Coastal Symposium Kuleshov, Y., De Wit, R., Phan, J., variability in GCM and RCM simulation which will be published in special issue Schweitzer, M., Dowdy, A. and Jones, D. Clarke, J., Erwin, T., Cook, G., of Journal of Coastal Research. 2011. Pacific Climate Change Science Frencham, L. and Hennessy, K. Nguyen, K.C., Katzfey, J.J., and Program: Improving the understanding Building capacity in the Climate Futures McGregor, J.L. Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone climatology. tool in Pacific island countries. Bulletin of PORSEC, Vol. 5.2, 2-5. of future circulation and rainfall Clarke, J., Erwin, T., Hennessy, K. and changes over the tropics. To be Kuleshov, Y., 2011. Tropical cyclone Whetton, P. Technical aspects of the submitted to Climate Dynamics. climatology, in book “Climatology”, Climate Futures web-based tool. Intech, ISBN 979-953-307-337-7. Sen Gupta, A. et al. Climate drift in the Collins, D., McGree, S., Jones, D.A., CMIP 3 coupled climate models. Journal Lenton A, Metzl, N., Takahashi, T., Skilling, E., H. Diamond, Ofa Fa’anunu, of Climate or Climate Dynamics. Kuchinke, M., Matear, R.J., Roy, T., D. Hiriasia, S. Hugony, R. Hutchinson, Smith, I. and Moise, A. West Pacific Sutherland, S.C., Sweeney, C. and K. Inape, L. Jacklick, T. Moniz, M. Monsoon in current and future Tilbrook, B. 2011. The observed Ngemaes, A. Porteous, P. Samson, climate, journal still to be selected. evolution of oceanic pCO2 and its drivers S. Seuseu, L. Tahani, F. Talagi, F. over the last two decades, GBC Teimitsi, U. Toorua, M. Vaiimene, V. Summons, N., Arthur, C., and Power, S.B., Delage, F., Colman, R. Vuniyayawa and H. Vavae. An updated Abbs, D. Tropical Cyclone Wind and Moise, A. 2011. Consensus on analysis of homogeneous temperature Hazard in the West Pacific. 21st century rainfall projections in trends at Pacific Island stations. Likely Tory, K.J., Dare, R.A., Davidson, climate models more widespread than to submit to Climatic Change. N.E., McBride J.L. and Chand S.S. previously thought. Journal of Climate. Hoeke, R. and McInnes, K.L. The importance of low-deformation Extreme water level climatologies vorticity in tropical cyclone formation. Submitted for Pacific Islands. Tory, K.J., Chand, S.S., Dare, R.A. Chattopadhyay, M. and Abbs, Katzfey, J., Chattopadhyay, M., and McBride J.L. The development D., (2012), On the Variability of McGregor,J., Nguyen, K. and and assessment of a model-, grid- Projected Tropical Cyclone Genesis Thatcher, M. Evaluation of 8 km and basin-independent tropical in GCM Ensembles. Tellus A downscaled simulations for the cyclone detection scheme. Dowdy, A., Qi, L., Jones, D., Ramsay, Tropical Pacific: Current Climate. Tory, K.J., Chand, S.S., Dare, R.A. H., Fawcett R. and Kuleshov, Y. Tropical Kokic, P. Jin, H. and Crimp S. Bootstrap and McBride J.L. Assessment of a cyclone climatology of the South simulation of climate variables using model-, grid- and basin-independent Pacific Ocean and its relationship quantile matching methods. Likely tropical cyclone detection scheme to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to submit to Environmetrics. in selected CMIP3 models. submitted to Journal of Climate. Kokic, P. and Jin, H. Parameter Wijffels, S. and Muir, L.. The anatomy Lorbacher, K., Marsland, S.J., estimation in a mixed-effect state-space of ocean warming 1950-2000. Church, J.A. and Griffies, S.M. model with missing data. Likely to submit Rapid barotropic sea-level rise from Zhang, X., Church, J., Platten S. to Statistics & Probability Letters. simulated ice-sheet melting scenarios. and Monselesan, D. Projection of Journal of Geophysical Research. Kuchinke, M., Tilbrook, B. and subtropical gyre circulation change Lenton, A. Ocean Acidification and associated sea-level change in Smith, I.N., Moise, A.F. and Colman, R.A. and the Aragonite Saturation State the Pacific Ocean based on CMIP3 2011. Large scale features in the western in the Pacific Island Region, in climate models. Under preparation, to Pacific and their representation in climate preparation for Marine Chemistry. be submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. models. Journal of Geophysical Research.

24 Appendix 2: Media Coverage Summary – Launch of Climate Change in the Pacific

Print: (4) Get Sustainable AllVoices Weekend Australian Gippsland Times Agrometerology.org Sydney Morning Herald Goondiwindi Argus AndhraNews.net The Age Goulburn Post Asian News International Herald Sun Herald Sun Bright Surf Hills News Climatepasifika.blog Wires: (1) Hume Weekly Climate Desk PACNEWS Inverell Times Conserve online The Lowyinterpreter China National News Overseas Radio: (6) Latrobe Valley Express Daily Telegraph Radio NZ Wellington (2 articles) Mandurah Mail Democratic Underground Radio NZ Auckland (2 articles) Mudgee Guardian Environment Business Week Radio NZ Christchurch (2 articles) Muswellbrook Chronicle Environmental Research Web Naracoorte Herald National Radio: (2) Eurekalert Narooma News ABC World Today (2 Stories) Global Maritime Social Network Narromine News Pacific Islands Forum Sec Television: (2) News.com.au Hamara Photos The Australia Channel Northern Argus Honolulu Star-Advertiser Channel Ten- The Project Nyngan Observer Independent Media Center Pacific Beat IndyBay Australia Online: (89) Parkes Champion-Post Japan Herald ABC (2 articles) Parramatta Sun MedIndia ABC [World Today] (2 articles) Peninsula Weekly Mena Fn ABC Asia Pacific (2 articles) Port Lincoln Times Middle East North Africa Financial Network ABC Radio Australia News Port Macquarie News Net India123 Ararat Advertiser Queensland Country Life New Zealand Energy & Armidale Express Rousehill-Stanhope Gardens News NewKerala.com Augusta Margaret River Mail Science in Public News Track India Australian Network News Southern Highland News North Korea Times Avon Valley Advocate Southern Weekly Philippine Times Baird Maritime St Marys-Mt Druitt Star PhysOrg.com Banyule and Nillumbik Weekly Stock and Land Proplanta.de Bay Post Stock Journal GRAND TOTAL: 154 Bendigo Advertiser Sunraysia Daily Blayney Chronicle Tenterfield Star Blogs Courier Mail The Advertiser Radio NZ Boorowa News The Age RxPG News Braidwood Times The Armidale Express San Francisco Bay Area Brisbane Times The Avon Valley Advocate Relief Web Bunbury Mail The Border Mail Science Codex Camden Haven Courier The Canberra Times Science Daily Casey Weekly Berwick The Courier Science newsline Central Midland & Coastal Advocate The Islander Scoop NZ Coastal Times The Macleay Argus Scottrade Cowra Community News The Medical News Solomons Star (2 articles) Daily Liberal The Newcastle Herald (2 articles) Solomons Times Eastern Riverina Chronicle The Rural Talamua- Samoa Eco Voice The Sydney Morning Herald (2 articles) Telegraph.co.uk Eco News The Times Terra Daily The Wimmera Mail-Times Webindia123.com WA Today Yahoo! India Warrnambool Standard Western Advocate Whyalla News Wollondilly Advertiser Overseas Online: (50)

25 Appendix 3: Pacific Climate Change Science Program media coverage during Greenhouse 2011 Table 1: Coverage by Pacific island journalists

PACNEW – Pita Liguala 1. Pacific Climate Change Science Program explains role 12 stories 2. Australian government committed in tackling climate change: Combet 3. Scientific evidence proves that impacts of climate change is real: Dr Garnaut 4. Latest climate change information captured in new CSIRO book 5. Tuvalu not comfortable with environmental refugees status 6. Sea level rise in the Pacific will contribute to environmental refugees 7. Scientist warn of social unrest in Pacific river deltas in future 8. Adaptation in many river deltas in Pacific islands is short term 9. Dredging only a short term solution for flooding in Fiji 10. Rainfall patterns changing in the Pacific 11. Ocean depth and ice no longer a barrier to Climate change 12. Humidity increases will make more places inhabitable in the future

Rozalee Nongebatu from Solomon 1. 03/04/2011 Hiriasia Solomon poster presentation 2011 Islands Broadcasting Corporation 2. 04-04-2011 Australian Minister For Climate Change And Energy Efficiency 7 stories and 2 follow-up stories 3. 04/04/2011 Dr Roemich – Scripps Institution of Oceanography 4. 04/04/2011 Environmental Refugees 5. 05/04/2011 PCCSP Head On Climate Change In The Pacific 6. 07/04/2011 River Deltas and Relocation 7. 08/04/2011 Advantages and risks in advancing climate change science in small tropical islands – by Dr Gillian Cambers

Post conference follow-up stories 8. CliDE Software For Met Service 9. Hirisia on PCCSP Honiara Workshop

Table 2: Coverage by Australian and New Zealand media

ABC Radio Nation-AM Program 08:00 04/04/2011 Pacific scientists say sea levels affect farming Researchers from 14 Pacific countries as well as East Timor share their latest research into the impact of climate change at a week-long conference in Cairns. Some are reporting that sea level rises are causing erosion and affecting fishing and farming. Included interviews with Netatua Pelesikoti, Climate Change focal point, SPREP, Gillian Cambers, PCCSP Program Manager, Kevin Hennessy, Principal Scientist, ‘Ofa Fa’anunu, Director of Meteorology, Tonga Meteorology Service.

Radio Australia – Pacific Beat No solid scientific data on Pacific climate change No solid scientific data on Pacific climate change. … Reporter: Joanna McCarthy. Speakers: Gillian Cambers, program manager, Pacific Climate Change Science, CSIRO; David Hiriasia, director, Solomon Islands Meteorological Service.

Radio Australia – Clement Paligaru Interviews with Gillian Cambers, Program Manager about the PCCSP and Patrick Nunn, School of Behavioural, Cognitive and Social Sciences, The University of New England, Armidale. http://blogs.radioaustralia.net.au/english/2011/pacific/ the-pacifics-forgotten-climate-refugees

Cairns Post Story about Climate Change refugees and Tuvalu- interview with Hilia Vavae, Chief Meteorological Officer, Tuvalu Meteorology Services –full article atAppendix 3

Pacific Radio News – New Zealand Ruci Jean Farrell News producer interviewed Gillian Cambers, PCCSP Program Manager, and Hilia Vavae, Chief Meteorological Officer, Tuvalu Meteorology Services

26 Table 3: Links to re-publication of stories by other Pacific news agencies/website

Samoa Observer ABC AM story: http://samoaobserver.ws/index.php?option=com_content&view=article &id=32387:pacific-scientists-&catid=55:pacific-region&Itemid=65

Ran PACNEWS story –Rainfall patterns changing in the Pacific http://www.samoaobserver.ws/index.php?option=com_content&view=arti cle&id=32525:rainfall-patterns-&catid=64:sunday-reading&Itemid=82

Samoa.news.com Ran PACNEWS story –Rainfall patterns changing in the Pacific http://www.samoanews.com/viewstory.php?storyid=25355& edition=1302170400&newssection=RegionalNews

Islands Business Ran PACNEWS story on the PCCSP: http://www.islandsbusiness.com/news/index_dynamic/containerName ToReplace=MiddleMiddle/focusModuleID=130/focusContentID=23402/ tableName=mediaRelease/overideSkinName=newsArticle-full.tpl

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Assist America website Ran PACNEWS story about PCCSP: http://assistamerica.countrywatch.com/rcountry.aspx? vcountry=172&topic=CBWIR&uid=5083849

Pacific Immigration directors website Ran PACNEWS story on Tuvalu not comfortable with environmental change refugees status http://www.pidcsec.org/news.asp?pageID=2145885662&RefID=2141740514

27 Appendix 4: Project Reports

1 .1 Rehabilitation of meteorological data

Program Main Research Findings annual rainfall for the longest available Pacific Climate Change Science Program rainfall records, indicate a general • The following summarises the increase in rainfall totals north-east of Component key results for temperature. the South Pacific Convergence Zone Component 1: Current and recent climate • There has been a widespread warming. over the past 50 years, with mainly Project Title declines to the south-west of the South • The updated homogeneous records 1.1 Rehabilitation of meteorological data Pacific Convergence Zone, and north indicate that mean temperatures of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone Project Leader have increased at all available Pacific just west of the International Date Line. David Jones island stations over 1960-2010, with This pattern of change is generally rates ranging from +0.08 to +0.20ºC/ Researchers reflected in both wet and dry seasons. decade. The strongest warming trends Simon McGree, Dean Collins (deceased), are found in Papua New Guinea and • Analysis of the last two decades reveals David Jones, numerous participants from French Polynesia. None of the updated a marked reversal of earlier trends, Partner Countries (see authors of papers). homogeneous records show cooling consistent with a shift of the South over the past 70, 50 or 30 years. Pacific Convergence Zone back to Methodology its climatological position since 1990 • Trends in maximum and minimum • Extraction of historical data from with increase in the south-west Pacific temperatures are very similar to those Partner Country meteorological and decreases to the north-east of of mean temperature at most stations, archives and international archives. the South Pacific Convergence Zone. apart from in Fiji, Tonga and Niue Complete data for 68 rainfall, Unlike changes in temperature, which where there is a tendency for greater 37 temperature and 3 pressure are dominated by background global warming in the daytime. The amount of stations across the study region. warming, the lack of a sustained warming in the wet and dry seasons is trend in rainfall suggests that Pacific • Temporal aggregation (monthly, also similar at most stations, although rainfall patterns continue to be strongly seasonal and annual averages) and stations in Fiji, Tonga and Niue display influenced by natural climate variability. quality control for outliers and errors. a bias toward greater warming during Comparison with independent data the wet. A simple regional mean of Papers: Published and in press Pacific island series shows a sustained sources, including NOAA, NIWA Substantial contributions to “Climate trend of +0.16°C/decade over 1960- and Australian data archives. Change in the Pacific: Scientific 2010 and indicates that 2010 was Assessment and New Research. • Aggregation of station metadata the warmest year on record averaged Volume 1: Regional Overview. 2011” (station histories etc) for stations to across the stations. This regional mean and “Climate Change in the Pacific: support homogeneity assessments station series compares favourably with Scientific Assessment and New Research. and subsequent adjustments. a regional mean series extracted from Volume 2: Country Reports. 2011” • Homogeneity testing using F a global gridded dataset. Overall, the (difference of slopes) and T (difference background warming in Pacific Island Papers: Under preparation of means) statistics drawing heavily temperature records over the past half- and submitted century is consistent with that expected on the RHtest methodology. D. Collins, S. McGree, D.A. Jones, E. from human-induced global warming. • Adjustment of time series for detected Skilling, H. Diamond, Ofa Fa’anunu, D. and corroborated inhomogeneities • The following summarises the Hiriasia, S. Hugony, R. Hutchinson, K. (“step changes”) in time series. key results for rainfall. Inape, L. Jacklick, T. Moniz, M. Ngemaes, A. Porteous, P. Samson, S. Seuseu, L. • The study of rainfall has confirmed • Calculation of trends (point and Tahani, F. Talagi, F. Teimitsi, U. Toorua, M. the homogeneity of most rainfall gridded data) and spatial averages Vaiimene, V. Vuniyayawa and H. Vavae. series as supported by statistical from point and gridded data. 2012. An updated analysis of homogeneous analyses of time series and careful temperature trends at Pacific Island stations. • Statistical significant testing of trends and analysis of metadata from sites. variations. Comparison with independent Likely to submit to Climatic Change. • The updated rainfall series clearly variables such as measures of the S. McGree, D. Collins, D. Jones, B. show the large interannual variability South Pacific Convergence Zone. Campbell, A. Akapo, H. Diamond, O. experienced in the tropical Pacific which Fa’Anunu, D. Hiriasia, S. Hugony, K. Inape, • Development of online data store is linked to such factors as the El Nino- L. Jacklick, T. Moniz, M. Ngemases, A. including data upload, interactive Southern Oscillation, changes in the Peltier, A. Porteois, P. Samson, S. Seuseu, analysis and graphing tools. South Pacific Convergence Zone and E. Skilling, L. Tahani, F. Talagi, F. Teimitsi, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. U. Toorua, M. Vaiimene, V. Vuniyayawa • This variability is large compared with the and H. Vavae. 2012. An updated analysis magnitude of long-term rainfall trends, of homogeneous rainfall trends at making them less spatially coherent than Pacific Island stations and East Timor. those for temperature. Trends in total Likely to submit to Climatic Change.

28 1 .2 . Data rescue and data management including CliDE

Program • Database is designed to be highly • In addition there is anecdotal evidence Pacific Climate Change Science Program scalable and expandable into to suggest that miss-keying may have the future by not being tied to taken place, and thus quality control Component particular operating systems. processes should be introduced using Component 1: Current and recent climate statistical techniques to find the most • The system is intended to assist with Project Title likely errant data and cross checking data management, help maximise the 1.2 Data rescue and data those with the original record. quality of the observation data and the management including CliDE value that can be obtained from the • Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands Project Leader observations and station metadata.. data up to independence is retained David Jones the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s • The database is a web browser based “ADAM” dataset. Most of it is key- Researchers application and does not require any entered from observation booklets and Rod Hutchinson, Andrew Howard, special software apart from a modern rainfall registers which are retained in Simon McGree, Matthew Bastin, David operating system and browser. the National Archives of Australia at John Martin, D. Collins, numerous • Analysis has been undertaken of Burwood. ADAM probably contains participants from Partner Countries: current data available in Partner the most reliable pre-independence E. Skilling, H. Diamond, Ofa Fa’anunu, Countries, in international databases electronic holdings. Post independence D. Hiriasia, K. Inape, L. Jacklick, T. including NIWA (New Zealand), NOAA electronic data have been lost in PNG Moniz, M. Ngemaes, A. Porteous, P. (U.S.A) and Bureau of Meteorology. but extensive paper record remains. Samson, S. Seuseu, L. Tahani, F. Talagi, F. Teimitsi, U. Toorua, M. Vaiimene, V. • International data has been collated and • The project has identified substantial Vuniyayawa and H. Vavae. 2012. provided to Partner Countries for those outstanding data holdings on paper situation where international holding which could be digitised to advance climate knowledge in the region. Methodology go beyond local digital data holdings. Activities in this area have commenced; • Examination of existing Climate Main Research Findings for example in Vanuatu a project has Data Management applications • Most small National Meteorological commenced which will digitise the lead to a decision towards Open Services (NMS) use spreadsheets remaining 40% of undigitised climate Source software in lieu of proprietary to manage their climatological data, thereby providing a complete software and solutions. observations and produce reports. climate record for this nation. • Hardware was selected on the basis • In nearly all countries spreadsheets are Papers: Published and in press that the provider would guarantee duplicated and changes, corrections the technical capability to withstand Major contributions to “Climate Change in and updates are not audited or recorded fluctuations in temperature, the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New in any way. They are not managed at humidity, and electricity, and to Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview. a corporate level but are dependent reduce the probability of the system 2011” and “Climate Change in the Pacific: on individuals for successful operation, being subject to viruses, software Scientific Assessment and New Research. introducing substantial key person risk. changes and accidental deletion. Volume 2: Country Reports. 2011”. • This project has greatly improved the • Development of database was modelled Papers: Under preparation usability and accessibility of NMS on the Australian Data Archive of and submitted data archives, allows them to improve Meteorology (ADAM) databases with their services and undertake more A number of technical documents modifications to fit the local conditions. climate research in future years through have been prepared on CliDE. • The database was provided to each significant capacity building in data recipient in an operating condition which management including reducing risk included a station catalogue and a in loss/destruction of paper records. basic climate data set where available. • Most of NMS electronic records • The database design included provision are available in three data sets. to fulfill the requirements of the The National Institute of Water and World Meteorological Organisation’s Atmospheric research (NIWA) in New ‘Global Framework for Climate Zealand, and from NOAA. However, Services’, thereby providing the while some of these datasets the basis for future climate services and fine level quality control normally science for Partner Countries. associated with indigenous data management is uncertain and there appears to be extensive periods of missing and/or erroneous data and disagreement between datasets. However, many datasets do not cover the full range of stations available or the complete record length.

29 1 .3 Improving the understanding of tropical cyclone climatology

Program Main Research Findings Papers: Published and in press Pacific Climate Change Science Program • A TC archive for the Southern Kuleshov, Y., 2011: Tropical cyclone Component Hemisphere (SH) has been revised and climatology, in book “Climatology”, Intech, Component 1: Current and recent climate it now consists of TC best track data ISBN 979-953-307-337-7 (in press). for the “satellite era” i.e. the TC seasons Project Title Kuleshov, Y., R. de Wit, M. Schweitzer, from 1969/70 to 2009/10. Based on SH 1.3 Improving the understanding J. Phan, A. Dowdy, D. Jones, 2011: TC archive data, analyses have been of tropical cyclone climatology Pacific Climate Change Science undertaken to understand the variability Program: Improving the understanding Project Leader and change in TC occurrences across of tropical cyclone climatology, Yuriy Kuleshov the SH (area south of the equator, 30°E Bulletin of PORSEC, Vol. 5.2, 2-5. to 120°W). Much of the variability of TCs Researchers can be understood (and even predicted Dowdy, A., and Y. Kuleshov, 2011: An Andrew Dowdy, Roald de Wit in advance) using broad-scale indices analysis of tropical cyclone occurrence in which describe the El Niño-Southern the Southern Hemisphere derived from Methodology Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. a new satellite-era dataset, International Journal of Remote Sensing (accepted). The statistical significance of the linear • TC trends in the SH have been trends in the various tropical cyclone (TC) examined. For the 1981/82 to 2006/07 Kuleshov, Y. L. Qi, D. Jones, R. Fawcett, F. time series was assessed in two ways. TC seasons, there are no apparent Chane-Ming, J. McBride and H. Ramsay, • We have calculated the statistical trends in the total numbers of TCs, 2010: On developing a tropical cyclone significances by Monte Carlo simulation nor in numbers of 970 hPa TCs (such archive and climatology for the South Indian (10,000 iterations) involving re-sampling TCs being called severe in the SH). In and South Pacific Oceans, in bookIndian the time series with and without the Pacific region, no significant trends Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate replacement and forming a sampling in the total numbers of TCs, or in the Change, Ed. Y. Charabi, Springer, 189-197, distribution of the linear trend from which proportion of the most intense TCs, have doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-3109-9_23. been found. Quality of best track TC we determine the significance level. Kuleshov, Y., R. Fawcett, L. Qi, B. Trewin, data in the SH was examined in detail D. Jones, J. McBride and H. Ramsay, • We have also subjected the TC time and it was concluded that issues with 2010: Trends in tropical cyclones in series to a single breakpoint testing the data homogeneity limit our ability at the South Indian Ocean and the South procedure. This is a nonparametric the present time to answer the important Pacific Ocean,J. Geophys. Res. 115, procedure on the basis of the question of how TC activity in the SH is D01101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012372. Mann-Whitney statistic. changing and its possible relationship to global climate change more generally. Papers: Under preparation and submitted • To provide means for accessing detailed information and data on Dowdy, A., L. Qi, D. Jones, H. Ramsay, R. historical TCs for the SH, a specialized Fawcett and Y. Kuleshov. Tropical cyclone website for disseminating results climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and data was developed using and its relationship to the El Niño-Southern OpenLayers platform, allowing Oscillation, submitted to Journal of Climate. dynamic map navigation of detailed information for user-selected regions.

30 2 .1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Program Main Research Findings Papers: Published and in press Pacific Climate Change Science Program • ENSO is associated with large rainfall Irving, D.B., Perkins, S.E., Brown, J.R., Sen Component variations in many Partner Countries. Gupta, A., Moise, A.F., Murphy, B.F., Muir, 2. Understanding large scale Countries east of 160ºE and close to L., Coleman, R.A., Power, S.B., Wijffels, climate features the equator experience above-average S.E., Delage, F.P. 2011. Selecting Global rainfall during an El Niño, while other Climate Models for regional climate change Project Title countries experience drier than normal projections: a case study for the Pacific 2.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. The average response in island region. Climate Research in press. Project Leader wet season rainfall is generally in the Perkins, S.E., D.B. Irving, J.R. Brown, Scott Power same direction for both canonical S.B. Power, A.F. Moise, R.A. Colman, and El Niño Modoki events, but Researchers and I. Smith, 2011: CMIP3 ensemble weaker for El Niño Modoki, except Brad Murphy, Scott Power, François Delage climate projections over the western Nauru and Tarawa (Kiribati) where tropical Pacific based on model skill. the Modoki response is greater. Methodology Climate Research, (in press). • CMIP3 models show varying degrees • Documented impact of ENSO on climate Power, S.B., F. Delage, R. Colman, and of skill in reproducing the strength and A. Moise, 2011: Consensus on 21st in the partner countries and both its frequency of ENSO events, from very seasonal and interannual variability. century rainfall projections in climate weak to overly strong canonical and models more widespread than previously • Explained inter-annual climate Modoki events. In general, models thought. J. Climate, (accepted). variations in partner countries due with excessively strong canonical to ENSO with respect to changes ENSO variability also have excessively in large-scale climate features (e.g. strong Modoki variability, or too weak SPCZ, West Pacific Monsoon). for both. Most of the CMIP3 models reproduce the canonical ENSO pattern • Examined variations in ENSO impacts on is reasonably well, but most don’t partner country between different types reproduce the Modoki pattern well. of El Niño events (classical and Modoki). • Many models may not simulate the • Evaluated ENSO in Intergovernmental correct changes in rainfall during El Niño Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth and La Niña events for some Partner Assessment Report (AR4) climate Countries due to errors in how they model simulations of the 21st Century. simulate ENSO. As the line between • Examined changes in ENSO under regions of warmer and cooler water global warming through investigation during ENSO events is shifted too far of IPCC AR4 climate model west in many models, countries may projections for the 21st century have the wrong temperature anomaly during El Niño and La Niña events. The pattern of rainfall response to ENSO events is also shifted too far west in many models, and is too strong or too weak in some models. • 21st century interannual variability in the region will continue to be largely driven by ENSO. Unfortunately, climate models do not provide consistent projections of changes in the frequency, intensity and patterns of future El Niño and La Niña events. As the climate changes, however, some aspects of the climate experienced in some regions during El Niño and La Niña events may change (e.g. future El Niño events will tend to be warmer than El Niño events experienced in the past).

31 2.2 South Pacific Convergence Zone

Program Main Research Findings westward contraction of the SPCZ is Pacific Climate Change Science Program associated with a strengthening of the • The simulation of the SPCZ in 24 trade winds in the southeast Pacific Component coupled model simulations of the and an increased zonal sea surface 2. Understanding large scale twentieth century was examined. The temperature gradient across the South climate features models and simulations are those used Pacific. The majority of models simulate for the (AR4) of the IPCC. The seasonal Project Title an increase in the area of the SPCZ and climatology and interannual variability of 2.2 South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) in mean and maximum precipitation the SPCZ is evaluated using observed within the SPCZ, defined by a 6 mm/ Project Leader and model precipitation. Twenty models day precipitation threshold, consistent Scott Power simulate a distinct SPCZ, while four with increased moisture convergence models merge intertropical convergence Researchers in a warmer climate. Changes in the zone and SPCZ precipitation. The Jo Brown, Scott Power, Francois SPCZ response to ENSO are examined majority of models simulate an SPCZ Delage, Brad Murphy, Aurel Moise, using ENSO precipitation composites. with an overly zonal orientation, rather Rob Colman, Christine Chung The SPCZ has a reduced slope and is than extending in a diagonal band into shifted towards the equator in the A2 the southeast Pacific as observed. Two- multi-model mean El Niño composite. Methodology thirds of models capture the observed • Initiated, organised and ran first ever meridional (north-south) displacement Papers: Published and in press international conference dedicated to of the SPCZ during El Niño and La Brown, J. R., Scott B. Power, Francois P. examination of the SPCZ in observations Niña events. The four models that use Delage, Robert A. Colman, Aurel F. Moise, and in climate model simulations ocean heat flux adjustments simulate a Bradley F. Murphy, 2011: Evaluation of of the 20th and 21st centuries. better tropical SPCZ pattern because the South Pacific Convergence Zone in of a better representation of the Pacific IPCC AR4 Climate Model Simulations • Documented main features of sea surface temperature pattern and of the Twentieth Century. J. Climate, the SPCZ and both its seasonal absence of cold sea surface temperature 24, 1565–1582. doi: http://dx.doi. and interannual variability. biases on the equator. However, the org/10.1175/2010JCLI3942.1 • Developed method to characterise flux-adjusted models do not show Brown, J.R., A.F. Moise, and F.P. major features of SPCZ (e.g. greater skill in simulating the interannual Delage, 2011: Changes in the SPCZ in latitude and spatial orientation). variability of the SPCZ. While a small subset of models does not adequately IPCC AR4 future climate projections. • Examine changes in the SPCZ reproduce the climatology or variability Climate Dynamics, (in press). under global warming. Evaluation of the SPCZ, the majority of models Irving D, Perkins S, Brown JR, Sen Gupta of the South Pacific Convergence are able to capture the main features of A, Moise A, Murphy B, Muir L, Colman R, Zone in Intergovernmental Panel SPCZ climatology and variability, and Power S, Delage F, & Brown JN, 2011: on Climate Change IPCC Fourth they can therefore be used with some Evaluating global climate models for the Assessment Report AR4 Climate Model confidence for future climate projections. Pacific Island region.Climate Research, 49, Simulations of the Twentieth Century • The response of the SPCZ to climate 169-187. doi:10.3354/cr01 http://www. • Understanding how the SPCZ may change is examined using simulations int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c049p169.pdf. change in the future requires the use from 16 coupled climate models under Moise, A.F., and F.P. Delage, 2011: of global coupled atmosphere–ocean the A2 emission scenario carried out for New climate model metrics based on models. It is therefore important to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate object-orientated pattern matching of evaluate the ability of such models Change Fourth Assessment Report. rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12108, to realistically simulate the SPCZ. Characteristics of the austral summer doi: 10.1029/2010JD015318. We examined changes in the SPCZ in the late twenty-first century SPCZ in IPCC AR4 climate model are compared with the late twentieth Perkins, S.E., D.B. Irving, J.R. Brown, projections for the 21st century century: the orientation and latitude of S.B. Power, A.F. Moise, R.A. Colman, the SPCZ precipitation band; the area and I. Smith, 2011: CMIP3 ensemble and intensity of precipitation within the climate projections over the western SPCZ; and the eastern extent of the tropical Pacific based on model skill. SPCZ. Changes in the SPCZ position Climate Research, (in press). are examined using a simple linear fit to Power, S., 2011, Understanding the the band of maximum precipitation and South Pacific Convergence Zone and using a ‘‘pattern matching’’ technique. its impacts, Eos Trans. AGU, 92(7), Both techniques find no consistent 55, doi:10.1029/2011EO070006. shift in the slope or mean latitude of the austral summer SPCZ. However, many Power, S.B., F. Delage, R. Colman, and models simulate a westward shift in the A. Moise, 2011: Consensus on 21st eastern edge of the SPCZ in austral century rainfall projections in climate summer, with reduced precipitation models more widespread than previously to the east of around 150ºW. The thought. J. Climate, (accepted).

32 2.3 Western Pacific Monsoon (WPM) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Program • Year-to-year variability in the extent • Climate models on average reproduce Pacific Climate Change Science Program of the monsoon-affected region is the seasonal cycle of ITCZ rainfall significant, especially on the eastern amounts reasonably well, although Component edge, where it varies by more than 5000 uncertainties in the observations are 2. Understanding large scale km between maximum and minimum large in this region, precluding stronger climate features extent. The two most extreme maximum conclusions. On interannual time scales, Project Title eastern extents of the monsoon domain most models are able to reproduce 2.3 Western Pacific Monsoon (WPM) and occurred during the strong El Niño years the equatorward shift under El Niño the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of 1983/84 and 1997/98. The north- conditions and the poleward shift south variability of the westerly wind under La Niña conditions found in the Project Leader domain is much less pronounced. observations, except for those models Rob Colman not showing significant ENSO variability. • Overall, with only a few exceptions, Researchers the CMIP3 climate models capture the • 21st century changes in rainfall Rob Colman, Aurel Moise, Francois Delage major climatic features of the monsoon, averaged over the ITCZ show a general including the seasonal reversal of the increase in June-August, with little Methodology surface winds and the dominance of change in December-February, thereby amplifying the current seasonal cycle. • Documented impact of the ITCZ and summer rainfall over winter rainfall. There is an increase in the area of the the WPM on climate in the partner • 21st century projections: There is a ITCZ in all models in June-August, countries and both its seasonal general tendency for an amplification and nearly all models in December- and interannual variability. of the seasonal cycle of rainfall in the February. Models suggest the ITCZ • Evaluation of the WPM and the ITCZ West Pacific Monsoon region. Westerly may shift equatorward in March-May in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate winds over the region show a relatively and June-August by a small amount. Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment weak enhancement in December- • The ramification of these and related Report (AR4) Climate Model February, while in June-August there projected changes are discussed Simulations of the Twentieth Century are enhanced westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere contrasting with weaker in Volumes 1 and 2 (BoM-CSIRO • Understanding how the ITCZ and the westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere. 2011) and in the country reports of WPM may change in the future requires the affected partner countries. the use of global coupled atmosphere– Intertropical Convergence Zone Papers: Published and in press ocean models. It is therefore important • Seasonal and year-to-year variability to evaluate the ability of such models in the position and intensity of the Irving D, Perkins S, Brown J.R, Sen Gupta to realistically simulate the ITCZ and ITCZ can have significant impacts on A, Moise A, Murphy B, Muir L, Colman R, the WPM. We examined changes in the low latitude Pacific nations due to its Power S, Delage F, & Brown JN, 2011: ITCZ and the WPM in IPCC AR4 climate meridional (north-south) narrowness Evaluating global climate models for the model projections for the 21st century. and large rainfall gradients. As the Pacific Island region. Climate Research, 49, 169-187. doi:10.3354/cr01 http://www. Main Research Findings mean seasonal shift of the ITCZ is only 2° of latitude in the central Pacific, int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c049p169.pdf. The Western Pacific Monsoon even small shifts in overall location can Moise, A.F., and F.P. Delage, 2011: • The Western Pacific Monsoon is result in large impacts. The PCCSP New climate model metrics based on associated with a seasonal reversal of Partner Countries affected by the ITCZ object-orientated pattern matching of winds that brings heavy rainfall to the are Palau, the Marshall Islands and rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12108, region north of Australia. Variations in the Federated States of Micronesia. doi: 10.1029/2010JD015318. the timing, position, intensity, longevity • The latitude of the ITCZ varies from year- Perkins, S.E., D.B. Irving, J.R. Brown, and extent of the monsoon account to-year. For example, during 1979-1999 S.B. Power, A.F. Moise, R.A. Colman, for much of the rainfall variability in this the ITCZ tended to be approximately and I. Smith, 2011: CMIP3 ensemble region. East Timor, Papua New Guinea 3° closer to the equator during El climate projections over the western and the Solomon Islands are within the Niño conditions than during La Niña tropical Pacific based on model skill. monsoon region for all or most years. conditions. Rainfall amounts in the ITCZ Climate Research, (in press). Vanuatu, Tuvalu and parts of Kiribati lie are also strongly influenced by ENSO. outside the average monsoon domain Power, S.B., F. Delage, R. Colman, and but nonetheless are affected by the • A small downward trend in total rainfall is A. Moise, 2011: Consensus on 21st monsoon during some years. In the apparent over the 1979–1999 period for century rainfall projections in climate Northern Hemisphere, Palau lies within this region, and the trend is stronger in models more widespread than previously the westerly domain during most years, December‑February than June-August. thought. J. Climate, (accepted). while parts of the Federated States of Micronesia and Marshall Islands are only Papers: Under preparation affected by the monsoon in some years. and submitted Smith, I.N., A.F. Moise, and R.A. Colman, 2011: Large scale features in the western Pacific and their representation in climate models. J. Geophys. Research, (submitted).

33 3 .1 Global Climate Model Projections

Program Temperature Wind Pacific Climate Change Science Program • 2030: 0.5 to 1.0ºC warmer, regardless • Wind speed decreases slightly in the Component of the emissions scenario equatorial and northern parts of the 3. Climate Projections region, with small increases in the south • 2055: 1.0 to 1.5oC warmer with Project Title regional differences depending Humidity and solar radiation 3.1 GCM projections on the emissions scenario • Relatively small changes, generally Project Leader • 2090: 1.5 to 2.0oC for B1 (low with increasing humidity and Kevin Hennessy emissions), 2.0 to 2.5oC for A1B decreasing solar radiation (medium emissions) and 2.5 to Researchers Potential evapotranspiration 3.0oC for A2 (high emissions) Damien Irving, Sarah Perkins, • Increases except along the equator Penny Whetton • More extremely hot days and over Papua New Guinea and warm nights Methodology Droughts Rainfall • In consultation with Components 2 and • Decrease in frequency • Annual mean rainfall generally increases 4, evaluate the reliability of 24 global Papers: Published and in press climate models and identify models • 2030: increases 0–0.3 mm per suitable for use in climate projections day throughout most of the region, Perkins, S. 2011. Biases and model rising to 0.3–0.6 mm per day agreement in projections of climate • Calculate projected changes in between latitudes 5°N and 10°S, extremes over the tropical Pacific, temperature, rainfall, wind, humidity, for all emissions scenarios Earth Interactions, 15, 1–36. doi: http:// solar radiation, evaporation and drought dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011EI395.1 • 2055: the increases are generally • Describe projections in a technical similar to 2030, but reach 0.9–1.2 Irving, D.B., Perkins, S.E., Brown, J.R., report “Climate Change in the Pacific: mm per day between latitudes 5°N Sen Gupta, A., Moise, A.F., Murphy, B.F., Scientific Assessment and New and 10°S, with decreases of 0–0.3 Muir, L., Coleman, R.A., Power, S.B., Research”, respond to comments from mm per day between Vanuatu and Wijffels, S.E., Delage, F.P. 2011. Selecting peer-review, use results in brochures, Tonga in the B1 (low) and A1B Global Climate Models for regional climate presentations and media interviews (medium) emissions scenarios. change projections: a case study for the • Contribute to assessment of Pacific island region,Climate Research, • 2090: the increases are generally downscaled projections 49, 169-187. doi: 10.3354/cr01028. similar to 2055, but reach 1.2–1.5 Main Research Findings mm per day for B1 (low) emissions Perkins, P., Irving, D.B., Brown, J.R., Power, and 1.5–1.8 mm per day for A1B S.B., Murphy, B.F., Moise, A.F., Colman, After assessing the performance of (medium) and A2 (high) emissions R.A., Delage, F.P. 2012. CMIP3 ensemble 24 global climate models, 18 were between latitudes 5°N and 10°S climate projections over the western considered suitable for projections. tropical Pacific based on model skill. Projections were developed for three • An increase in the number of heavy Climate Research, doi: 10.3354/cr01046. 20-year periods (centred on 2030, 2055 rain days (20-50 mm) and the and 2090) and three emissions scenarios intensity of extreme rainfall events (low-B1, medium-A1B and high-A2). (occurring once in 20 years)

34 3 .2 Tropical cyclones

Program Main Research Findings Papers: Published and in press Pacific Climate Change Science Program • The analysis of the global models Knutson, T.R., McBride, J.L., Chan, Component using the CVP and CDD techniques J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, 3. Climate projections shows that they are able to C., Held, I., Kossin, J.P., Srivastava, reproduce the climatology of tropical A.K., and Sugi, M., (2010), Tropical Project Title cyclones for the current climate. cyclones and climate change: Nature Project 3.2 Tropical cyclones Geoscience, v. 3, p. 157-163. • Application of these 2 techniques and Project Leader the GPI method to the outputs from Papers: Under preparation Debbie Abbs CMIP3 models shows considerable and submitted Researchers variability in the projected changes Chattopadhyay, M. and Abbs, D., Debbie Abbs, Craig Arthur, Mohar between both the global models (2012), On the Variability of Projected Chattopadhyay, Savin Chand, and the three techniques. Tropical Cyclone Genesis in GCM John McBride, Tony Rafter, Nick • When the CDD technique is applied to Ensembles. Tellus A (submitted) Summons, Kevin Tory CCAM outputs the projected changes Chattopadhyay, M. and Abbs, D., show little variability between the 6 Methodology (2012), Influence of large scale simulations considered and may be due circulation on TC variability in GCM • Application of the Genesis Potential to the use of a single modelling system and RCM simulation. (in preparation) Index (GPI) to CMIP3 outputs over for the downscaled runs analysed. the South Pacific to infer changes Importantly, the CCAM simulations Summons, N., Arthur, C., and Abbs, D., in the formation frequency and the under-estimate the occurrence of (2012), Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard Maximum Potential Intensity of tropical tropical cyclones occurring east of 180°E in the West Pacific. (in preparation) cyclones and to infer the changes • Projections based upon these different Tory, K. J., R. A. Dare, N. E. Davidson, J. in the large-scale environment modelling systems and analysis L. McBride and S. S. Chand (2012). The underlying these changes. techniques show that tropical cyclone importance of low-deformation vorticity in • Development of a new tropical cyclone frequency in the PCCSP region is tropical cyclone formation. (in preparation) likely to decrease by the late 21st detection scheme (the curvature Tory, K. J., S. S. Chand, R. A. Dare, and century. There is a moderate level of vorticity parameter – CVP) and the J. L. McBride (2012). The development confidence in this projection, with little application of that scheme to a and assessment of a model-, grid- and consistency found in the magnitude of subset of CMIP3 models to provide basin-independent tropical cyclone the projected changes between either projected changes in the formation detection scheme. (in preparation) frequency of tropical cyclones. the models or the analysis methods. Tory, K. J., S. S. Chand, R. A. Dare, and • Most CCAM simulations project an • Application of the CSIRO Direct J. L. McBride (2012). Assessment of a increase in the proportion of the Detection Scheme (CDD) to CMIP3 model-, grid- and basin-independent most severe storms in the Southwest outputs and 60-km CCAM simulations to tropical cyclone detection scheme in Pacific and a southward movement provide projected changes in formation selected CMIP3 models. (in preparation) frequency and tracks of TCs in the in the latitude at which maximum South Pacific. The CCAM tracks were intensity occurs. This coincides with Chand, S. S, J. L. McBride, K. J. Tory further analysed to provide guidance on a reduction in cyclonic wind hazard and K. J. E. Walsh (2012). Contrasting likely changes in the intensity of tropical north of 20°S and regions of increased austral summer ENSO regimes and their cyclones affecting the South Pacific. wind hazard south of 20°S. impacts on tropical cyclones over the central southwest Pacific. (in preparation) • TC tracks from the CCAM outputs • In the Northern basin (0N-15N), most were further scaled for use in the simulations project an increase in the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model to provide proportion of storms occurring in the information on current and future climate weaker categories. For the North Pacific TC-related wind hazard for the region. region, there is a general reduction in cyclonic wind hazard between the current and future climate simulations as a result of a decrease in storm frequency close to the equator.

35 3 .3 Dynamical downscaling

Program Methodology Main Research Findings Pacific Climate Change Science Program • Select six GCMs to downscale, only The CCAM 60 km simulations reproduce Component A2 emissions scenario used. the current climate generally better than the 3. Climate projections host GCMs, more for temperatures, but also • CCAM run on global even grid of to some extent for rainfall. The CCAM 8 km Project Title approximately 60 km, using only bias- simulations captured the effects of the local 3.3.Dynamical downscaling corrected sea surface temperatures from topography on the climate and its change. the GCMs and sea ice concentrations. Project Leader Papers: Published and in press Jack Katzfey • Simulations were from 1961-2100. Nguyen, K. C., Katzfey, J., and Researchers • Seven countries were chosen to McGregor, J. L., 2011: Global 60 km Jack Katzfey, John McGregor, Kim Nguyen, downscale to 8 km resolution simulations with CCAM: evaluation Marcus Thatcher, Mohar Chattopadyhay – East Timor, Papua New Guinea, over the tropics. Climate Dynamics, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1197-8 Federated States of Micronesia Papers: Under preparation – Only three of the CCAM and submitted 60 km simulations were Nguyen, K.C., Katzfey, J. J., and downscaled (UKHadCM3, McGregor, J. L. Ensemble prediction GFDLCcm21 and ECHAM5) of future circulation and rainfall – Only three time slices were completed: changes over the tropics. To be 1980-2000, 2045-2065, 2080-2099 submitted to Climate Dynamics. • A second set of 60 km and 8 km simulations were completed using a mixed-layer ocean spectrally nudged to the host SSTs

3 .4 Additional Downscaling

Program Methodology Main Research Findings Pacific Climate Change Science Program • Use additional regional climate models The main research finding was that although Component to downscale over the Pacific the various models used different dynamics, 3. Climate projections physics and model set-ups, the climate • Used WRF (UNSW), RegCM change signal was broadly similar. Only Project Title and MM5 (IOWA), PRECIS slight degradation of the current climate 3.4 Additional downscaling (NIWA) and Zetac (UMelb) results was noted when models were Project Leader • Used the GFDLCM21 60 km CCAM nested within CCAM versus NCEP2. Jack Katzfey simulation for the A2 scenario Papers: Published and in press Researchers • Time periods simulated: None as yet Jack Katzfey, Kim Nguyen, Jason Evans 1980-2000, 2045-2065 (UNSW), Kevin Walsh (UMelb), Jim • Also each group ran a simulation Renwick (NIWA), Ray Arritt (IOWA State) nested within NCEP2 reanalyses

36 3 .5 Statistical downscaling

Program Main Research Findings Papers: Published and in press Pacific Climate Change Science Program • We applied the statistical downscaling Kokic, P, Crimp, S., & Howden, M. Component method to 17 climate stations in the 2011. Forecasting climate variables 3. Climate projections Pacific. Produced projected daily using a mixed-effect state-space climate data for 2021-2040 for all 17 model. Environmetrics, 22, 409-419 Project Title locations as well as the corresponding 3.5 Statistical downscaling Papers: Under preparation base-period simulations (1981-2000). and submitted Project Leader Also generated projected climate data Philip Kokic for 2046-2065 for 12 locations. Kokic, P. Jin, H. & Crimp S. Bootstrap simulation of climate variables using Researchers • The countries for which downscaling quantile matching methods. Likely Steven Crimp, Warren Jin was performed were Cook, Islands, to submit to Environmetrics. Micronesia, Fiji, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Methodology Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Climate Kokic, P. & Jin, H. Parameter estimation data from other islands was judged to be in a mixed-effect state-space model • Developed effective climate of insufficient quality to produce reliable with missing data. Likely to submit data editing tools. statistical downscaled projections. to Statistics & Probability Letters • Developed methodology for statistical • Downscaling was performed using downscaling that improves on standard predictors derived from 3 global existing approaches in terms of forecast climate models: UK HadCM3, ECHAM accuracy (Kokic, Crimp & Howden, 5 and GFDLCM 2.1 all using the 2011 & Kokic, Jin and Crimp). Method A2 midrange emission scenario accounts for seasonality, cross-variables and temporal dependencies in the data • The results of statistical downscaling and utilizes predictors from GCMs show a projected increase in average daily rainfall in most locations for most • Undertook out-of-sample validation host models, except for the Marshall of the downscaling methodology Islands, where average daily rainfall is (Kokic, Jin and Crimp). Assessment projected to decline in two out of the was made in terms of out-of-sample three cases. In some locations, the predictive accuracy accounting range of rainfall projections is quite wide, for forecast error, and testing of e.g., in Micronesia and the Marshall spatial, temporal and cross-station Islands, which indicates that rainfall is consistency of the forecasts projected with less certainty in these • Developed an effective estimation locations. Average maximum and method in the present of partially missing minimum temperature are consistently data using the Estimate-Maximise projected to increase in all locations (EM) algorithm (Kokic & Jin). This was regardless of which GCM predictors are important for the project as most climate used to drive the statistical downscaling. station data has partially missing data • Developed software systems to automate the statistical downscaling methodology

37 3 .6 Tailored Projections

Program • Install in country where required Papers: Published and in press Pacific Climate Change Science Program • Assist Component 5 with planning The Pacific Climate Futures Component for in-country training web-tool is referred to in: 3. Climate projections • Conduct in-country training in each Clarke JM, Whetton PH, Hennessy KJ Project Title of the 15 partner countries (2011) ‘Providing Application-specific 3.6 Tailored Projections Climate Projections Datasets: CSIRO’s • Evaluate the training through Climate Futures Framework.’ In F Chan, Project Leader user surveys while in country. D Marinova and RS Anderssen (eds) John Clarke • Plan for follow-up visits MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress Researchers on Modelling and Simulation. Perth, Tim Erwin and Kevin Hennessy Main Research Findings Western Australia. December 2011 pp. • The web-tool, called Pacific Climate 2683-2690. (Modelling and Simulation Methodology Futures has been very well received Society of Australia and New Zealand). by the partner countries as well as www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/ • Identify tailored products needs through at the UNFCCC 17th Conference of D10/wongsosaputro.pdf. (Note that in-country meetings and workshops the Parties in Durban, South Africa. this is a peer-reviewed publication). • Development of prototype • Based on the training evaluation Papers: Under preparation climate futures tool results, all participants attained new and submitted • Staged process of cyclical road skills as a direct result of the in-country We are in the early stages of testing and further development training. Almost half of those trained planning two papers: (road-testing was conducted on to Advanced level indicated they three separate occasions) are now confident in their ability to 1. On the capacity building aspects produce tailored projections for impact of delivering the web-tool and • In-country testing of connectivity and assessments in their country. This is a associated training. We intend to identification of countries that required very significant outcome as, for many invite Gillian Cook, Lily Frencham and local installation (all other countries participants this was their first exposure Kevin Hennessy to be co-authors. to access the tool via the internet) to climate projections work. Further, in 2. On the technical aspects of the web-tool • Define appropriate country regions several countries there is at least one itself. We intend to invite Penny Whetton and sub-regions based on EEZs participant who has indicated they and Kevin Hennessy to be co-authors. and major climate driver locations are confident they can train others. in consultation with researchers • We have succeeded in developing a from Components 2 and 3. tool that simplifies the communication • Establish CSIRO server of climate projections and provides and migrate software the functionality needed by the impacts and adaptation communities • Develop final version of the web-tool in the PCCSP partner countries. • Develop training materials and evaluations

38 4 .1 ENSO variability and climate change

Program for model evaluation paper • Model biases – Journal paper (Brown Pacific Climate Change Science Program J.N. et al). Comprehensive review • Determine confidence levels for regional and discussion of model biases in Component climate projections in country reports in CMIP3 relevant to making climate 4. Oceans and sea level rise collaboration with other components. projections in the PCCSP region. Project Title • Create projection information • Model selection – Journal paper (Irving 4.1 ENSO variability and climate change from CMIP3 model output for et al). Contribution of ocean model ocean climate out to 2100. Project Leader analysis for model selection in PCCSP Jaclyn Brown / Susan Wijffels • Assess models for model biases in the report and subsequent journal paper. PCCSP region and write journal paper. Researchers Papers: Published and in press Jaclyn Brown, Les Muir, Alex Sen • Write contribution to PCCSP Irving, D.B., Perkins, S.E., Brown, J.R., Gupta, Susan Wijffels, Paul Durack report Vol 1 & 2. Sen Gupta, A., Moise, A.F., Murphy, Main Research Findings B.F., Muir, L., Coleman, R.A., Power, Methodology S.B., Wijffels, S.E., Delage, F.P. 2011. • Climate trends in PCCSP • Use latest available salinity observations Selecting Global Climate Models for region – PCCSP report Vol 1. and statistical techniques to develop regional climate change projections: a Contributed to report showing observed trend data of salinity changes in case study for the Pacific island region, climate change, likely changes to PCCSP region. Write journal paper. Climate Research, doi: 10.3354/cr01028 climate in the PCCSP region (such as • Use an array of available observations SST warming) and communicating Durack, P.J., Wijffels, S. 2010. Fifty- to determine ocean climate trends uncertainty where relevant. year trends in global ocean salinities over last 50 years where possible. and their relationship to broad- • Climate projections at island scale – scale warming, Journal of Climate, • Explore the ability to use a multi- PCCSP report Vol 2. Provided country doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1 parametric analysis method specific climate projections with a to reconstruct climate trends discussion of uncertainty for each. Papers: Under preparation in observations compared to and submitted • Model drift. – Journal paper models. Write Journal paper. (Sen Gupta et al.). Dedrifted the ocean Sen Gupta, A. et al. Climate drift in • Analyse control runs of CMIP3 components of the CMIP3 models. the CMIP 3 coupled climate models. output to determine if and where Found regions and variables where drift Journal of Climate or Climate Dynamics, model drift becomes significant. became important in the long term trend early 2011. (under review). and adjusted projections accordingly. • Design a method to quantify model Wijffels, S. and L. Muir. The Anatomy of drift. Write journal paper on drift. • Observed salinity data set. – Journal ocean warming 1950-2000. In prep. paper. (Wijffels and Durack). • Adjust model output for drift. Brown J.N.et al. Implications of CMIP3 Observational data sets of salinity was model biases and uncertainties for • Compare observed trends with compiled and analysed for trends over climate projections in the western Tropical detrended model output over same the last 50 years. Found a freshening Pacific. To be submitted to special issue period for model evaluation. trend in the western Pacific. of Climatic Change in December. • Analyse performance of models • Trend analysis in ocean warming data. – Journal paper (Wijffels and Muir). • Multi-parametric analysis was adopted to identify warming trends in the ocean and how these compare to model simulations.

39 4.2 Sea level projections for the Pacific Islands’ region

Program Papers: Published and in press Church, J.A. and White, N.J. 2011. Sea- Pacific Climate Change Science Program level rise from the late 19th to the early Church, J.A., Woodworth, P.L., Aarup, 21st Century. Surveys in Geophysics Component T and Wilson, Editors, W.S. 2010. 32, 585-602, DOI:10.1007/s10712- 4. Oceans and sea level rise Understanding Sea-level Rise and 011-9119-1. http://www.springerlink. Variability, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Project Title com/openurl.asp?genre=article&id= Chichester, UK. (427 pp; ISBN: 4.2 Sea-level projections for doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1 978-1-4443-3452-4 (paperback); the Pacific Islands’ region 978-1-4443-3451-7 (hardback). Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., White, N.J., Project Leader Platten, S.M., and Mitrovica, J.X. 2011. Woodworth, P.L., Church, J.A., Aarup, John Church Understanding and projecting sea level T. and Wilson, W.S. 2010. Chapter 1: change. Oceanography 24(2):130–143, Researchers Introduction. In: Understanding Sea-level doi:10.5670/oceanog.2011.33. Xuebin Zhang, Skye Platten, Neil Rise and Variability, Eds. John A. Church, White; Katja Dommenget Philip L. Woodworth, Thorkild Aarup Church, J.A. White, N.J., Konikow, L.F., and W. Stanley Wilson. Wiley-Blackwell Domingues, C.M., Cogley, J.G., Rignot E. and Gregory, J.M. 2011. Revisiting the Methodology Publishing, Chichester, UK. (427 pp; ISBN: 978-1-4443-3452-4 (paperback); Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets for • Analysis of sea level projections 978-1-4443-3451-7 (hardback). 1961 to 2008. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, and associated processes, L18601, doi:10.1029/2011GL048794. primarily of the AR4 simulations. Church, J.A., Roemmich, D., Domingues, http://www.agu.org/journals/ C.M., Willis, J.K., White, N.J. Gilson, J.E., gl/gl1118/2011GL048794/ • Comparison of model projections with Stammer, D., Köhl, A., Chambers, D.P., observational estimates where available. Landerer, F.W., Marotzke, J., Gregory, J., Papers: Under preparation

• Model calculations to determine how Suzuki, T., Cazenave, A. and Le Traon, P.-Y. and submitted long it takes for a melting ice sheet 2010. Chapter 6. Ocean temperature and Lorbacher, K., Marsland, S.J., Church, signal to be experienced in the Pacific. salinity contributions to global and regional J.A. and Griffies, S.M. In revision. sea-level change. In: Understanding Sea- Rapid barotropic sea-level rise from Main Research Findings level Rise and Variability, Eds. John A. simulated ice-sheet melting scenarios. • The observed sea level rise since Church, Philip L. Woodworth, Thorkild Journal of Geophysical Research. 1972 can be well explained by ocean Aarup and W. Stanley Wilson. Wiley- Zhang, X., and Church, J., Linear trend warming and glacier melt with additional Blackwell Publishing, Chichester, UK. (427 of regional sea-level change in the Pacific contributions from the ice sheets pp; ISBN: 978-1-4443-3452-4 (paperback); Ocean ad its relationship with background and changes in terrestrial storage. 978-1-4443-3451-7 (hardback). decadal oscillation. Earlier manuscript was • Sea level in the region has risen Church, J.A., Aarup, T., Woodworth, P.L., rejected by Journal of Climate, and it’s by 2 to 10 mm/year from 1993- Wilson, W.S., Nicholls, R.J., Rayner, R., now under revision to be resubmitted. 2009, which is up to three times the Lambeck, K., Mitchum, G.T., Steffen, K., Zhang, X., Church, J., Platten, S. and global average of 3.2 mm/year. Cazenave, A., Blewitt, G., Mitrovica, J.X. and Lowe, J.A. 2010. Chapter 13: Sea- Monselesan, D., Projection of subtropical • Regional sea level change can be level Rise and Variability – Synthesis and gyre circulation change and associated sea- significantly affected by low-frequency Outlook for the Future. In: Understanding level change in the Pacific Ocean based on (interannual to interdecadal) modes Sea-level Rise and Variability, Eds. John CMIP3 climate models. Under preparation, of climate variability. Ice sheet A. Church, Philip L. Woodworth, Thorkild to be submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. contributions to the ocean are felt Aarup and W. Stanley Wilson. Wiley- rapidly in the PCCSP region. Blackwell Publishing, Chichester, UK. (427 • Regional projections of sea level pp; ISBN: 978-1-4443-3452-4 (paperback); rise in the PCCSP region are close 978-1-4443-3451-7 (hardback). to the global averaged rise.

40 4.3 Ocean acidification

Program Main Research Findings • Regionally, conditions that are Pacific Climate Change Science Program considered marginal for supporting • Aragonite saturation state (Ω) is a proxy healthy reefs (Ω < 3.5) will occur Component for estimating calcification rates in corals. in the Central Equatorial Pacific 4. Oceans and sea level rise Values above 4 are considered optimal in the next few decades. The reef for supporting healthy reef ecosystems Project Title ecosystems in the region of the South with values below 3.5 considered 4.3 Ocean Acidification Equatorial Current will be the last marginal. Coral reefs are usually not to experience these conditions. Project Leader found where surrounding waters have Bronte Tilbrook Ω values below about 3, although local • All reefs in the Pacific Island region short-term variability can occur within are predicted to be exposed Researchers lagoons, and other environmental marginal growing conditions (Ω Mareva Kuchinke, Andrew Lenton variables like temperature can also < 3.5) by about 2050, with the influence the distributions of reefs. lowest values of Ω expected for Methodology the highest emission scenario. • The mean value of Ω in surface waters • Historical data for total alkalinity (TA) of the study region has declined from Papers: Published and in press and dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2) about 4.6 in pre-industrial times to Lenton A, N. Metzl, T. Takahashi, M. were compiled for the Pacific Island present day values of about 3.7. region (120°E -140°W and 38°S-30°N). Kuchinke, R. J. Matear, T. Roy, S.C. • Surface seawater Ω varies spatially Sutherland, C. Sweeney, and B. Tilbrook, • The historical data were used to and temporally. Some countries are in press. The observed evolution of oceanic derive a TA-salinity relationship. This surrounded by waters with Ω fluctuating pCO2 and its drivers over the last two relationship was used to calculate seasonally between 3.5 and 3.9. decades, Global Biogeochemical Cycles monthly TA values from surface salinity. • The Western Pacific will continue to Papers: Under preparation • The calculated monthly TA values, see significant increases in the rate of and submitted and pCO2 data from the Takahashi ocean acidification, with decreases climatology, were then used to calculate Kuchinke, M., B. Tilbrook, and A. Lenton in pH and aragonite saturation state 2011 Ocean Acidification and the Aragonite the aragonite saturation state (Ω) of the occurring under all emission scenarios. seawater. Aragonite is the major mineral Saturation State in the Pacific Island form of carbonate precipitated by corals • Ocean acidification in the future Region, in preparation for Marine Chemistry and other important reef species. The will be driven primarily by the Lenton A. (2011) Projected changes saturation state of aragonite in seawater increase in atmospheric CO2, while in pH and aragonite saturation state is related to coral calcification rates. ocean temperature and salinity in the Western Pacific, in preparation changes play only a minor role for Geophysical Research Letters • An offline carbonate chemistry model in modulating the change. coupled to IPCC AR4 model projections was used to project changes in • As atmospheric CO2 levels are driving aragonite saturation state for the acidification change, the rate of change period 2010-2090. An ensemble of is linked to the emission scenario. six models under high, medium and • The rate of ocean acidification is similar low emission scenarios was used. for the low, mid and high emission • The model outputs were assessed scenarios until about 2050 and against the observations described diverges for the different scenarios in above and a multi-model mean and the second half of the 21st century statistics for seawater carbonate due to differences in rates of increase chemistry were calculated from of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. the model projections. • Worked with Sri Nandini, a Master’s Student from the University of the South Pacific, on projected changes in ocean acidification.

41 4 .4 . Effects of climate variability and climate change on extreme sea level events

Program Main Research Findings Papers: Published and in press Pacific Climate Change Science Program • To communicate the specific issues McInnes, K.L., O’Grady, J.G., Walsh, Component relating to extreme sea levels in the K.J.E. and Colberg, F. 2011: Progress 4. Oceans and sea level rise Pacific, a review paper was prepared at towards quantifying storm surge risk in the outset of the PCCSP project (Walsh Fiji due to climate variability and change Project Title et al., 2011) which explained the role of J. Coastal Res. SI64. 1121-1124. 4.1 Effects of climate variability and climate ENSO, tropical cyclones, waves, surges change on extreme sea level events Walsh, K.J.E., McInnes, K.L. and McBride, and their interaction with island geometry J.L. 2011: Climate change impacts Project Leader in contributing to extreme sea levels. on tropical cyclones and extreme sea Kathleen McInnes • From the recommendations in the review levels in the South Pacific – a regional Researchers article, extreme water climatologies assessment. Global and Planetary Change, Kathleen McInnes, Ron Hoeke, Julian were prepared for each tide gauge doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.006. O’Grady, Kevin Walsh, Frank Colberg location showing the average variation Papers: Under preparation throughout the year of the 95th and submitted Methodology percentile tide height, the seasonal and short term contributions, how Hoeke, R., McInnes, K.L. 2012: • A review of literature relevant for sea level they vary between La Niña and El Niño Extreme water level climatologies extremes was carried out and published. phases of the ENSO cycle and their for Pacific Islands (in prep). • An analysis of tide gauge data was contribution to total water levels. These undertaken to develop the extreme sea were evaluated for each of the PCCSP level annual climatologies. The hourly countries tide gauges for the Volume 2 total water levels were deconstructed country summaries. They showed that into their component parts comprising tidal extremes clustered around either astronomical tides, non-tidal low the solstices (June and December) frequency fluctuations in the sea surface for countries such as Papua New (e.g. seasonal and ENSO variations) and Guinea and eastern Federated States the short term fluctuations due to local of Micronesia, the equinoxes (March winds, waves and barometric pressure. and October) for the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Palau and southern • To investigate storm surges along the Cook Islands and showed fairly uniform entire Fiji coastline, a synthetic tropical annual variation in countries such as cyclone and storm surge modelling Nauru, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, northern study was undertaken. Tropical Cook Islands. These differences were cyclones that have affected Fiji were due to the differences in the dominant characterised in terms of intensity, tidal characteristics at each location. track and frequency for all years and La The summaries also showed that Niña and El Niño years. A population higher than normal sea levels occurred of 1000 plausible cyclones for that in La Niña years in Palau, Papua New region were sampled. Temporally and Guinea, Federated States of Micronesia, spatially varying wind and pressure fields Tuvalu, Samoa, Solomon Islands and arising from each synthetic cyclone Marshall Islands, and during El Niño were modelled using an analytical in the Cook Islands, Fiji and Kiribati. cyclone model and a hydrodynamic The short term signal was strongest in model simulated the sea level response Fiji, Tonga, Cook Islands and Samoa, over Fiji. The modelled surge heights particularly during the cyclone season. were then analysed statistically to evaluate storm surge return periods. • The synthetic cyclone modelling showed that the north-western coastlines of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu experienced the highest storm surges because they face the most common direction of approach for tropical cyclones. The 1 in 100 year storm surge heights on northwest coasts were found to be around twice the values at locations in the southwest. Due to differences in tropical cyclone paths and frequencies, the northern island was slightly more at risk of storm surges during El Niño years.

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