PCCSP End of Program Report
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End of Program Report July 2009–December 2011 Authors Copyright and Disclaimer Important Disclaimer Gillian Cambers (CSIRO) Gillian Cook (Bureau of Meteorology) © 2012 CSIRO and the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology advise that the Lily Jade Frencham (Bureau of Meterology) Bureau of Meteorology. information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader needs Jill Rischbieth (CSIRO) To the extent permitted by law, Kevin Hennessy (CSIRO) to be aware that such information may be incomplete or all rights are reserved and no unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance part of this publication covered Enquiries or actions must therefore be made on that information Kevin Hennessy by copyright may be reproduced without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research or copied in any form or by any technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO Private bag 1 means except with the written and the Bureau of Meteorology (including their employees Aspendale, 3195, Victoria permission of CSIRO and the and and consultants) exclude all liability to any person for any Australia Bureau of Meteorology. consequences, including but not limited to all losses, [email protected] damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part Reviewers or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Tom Beer (CSIRO) Ian Cresswell (CSIRO) Peter May (Bureau of Meteorology) Bryson Bates (CSIRO) Contents Executive Summary . 2 List of Abbreviations . 4 1 . Introduction . 5 1.1 International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative 5 1.2 Pacific Climate Change Science Program 5 1.2.1 Vision statement 5 1.2.2 Objectives 5 1.2.3 Partner countries 5 1.2.4 Program components 5 1.2.5 Management framework 6 2 . Addressing the Program’s Objectives . 6 2.1 Provision of scientific information 6 2.1.1 Management of climate data and analysis of data 7 2.1.2 Extreme events 7 2.1.3 Understanding large-scale climate features 9 2.1.4 Climate projections 10 2.1.5 Ocean processes and changes 11 2.2 Building capacity of partner countries in climate change science 12 2.2.1 Process for engagement 12 2.2.2 Regional workshops, conferences and events 13 2.2.3 In-country training 15 2.2.4 Attachments 17 2.3 Information dissemination 18 2.3.1 Preparation and publication of Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research 18 2.3.2 Launch and distribution of Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research 18 2.3.3 Preparation of brochures in English and local languages 19 2.3.4 Launching PCCSP tools 20 2.3.5 Media coverage and capacity building 21 2.3.6 Website and e-newsletter 22 3 . The way forward . 22 Appendix 1: List of PCCSP Publications . 23 Appendix 2: Media Coverage Summary – Launch of Climate Change in the Pacific . 25 Appendix 3: Pacific Climate Change Science Program media coverage during Greenhouse 2011 . 26 Appendix 4: Project Reports . 28 1 Executive Summary The International Climate Change 1. Provision of scientific • The future is expected to be warmer Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI) is a five-year information with more extremely hot days and investment of $328.2 million by Australia warm nights, a general increase in The PCCSP was designed to address to meet high priority climate adaptation annual mean rainfall and the number major gaps in climate change science, needs in vulnerable countries in of heavy rain days, fewer droughts including understanding the drivers the Asia-Pacific region. There are and tropical cyclones, more sea-level of climate variability, analysis of four components to the ICCAI: rise and more ocean acidification. observed trends, country-specific • Improved science and understanding; climate projections, sea-level rise 2. Capacity building • Strategic planning and and ocean acidification. The main Ongoing engagement with the vulnerability assessment; findings of the PCCSP research were partner countries and regional documented in a 530 page peer- • Implementing, financing organisations was an important reviewed report Climate Change in and coordinating adaptation part of capacity building under the the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and measures; and PCCSP. Direct engagement took New Research, Volume 1: Regional place during in-country visits and • Multilateral support. Overview; Volume 2 Country Reports. regional workshops, with frequent This was published in hard copy and The Pacific Climate Change Science remote engagement via e-mail and online in November 2011. Country- Program (PCCSP) was the primary telephone. Strong relationships were specific brochures were also published. input to the first component and will developed with key contacts. inform the other components. This In addition, at the conclusion of the Over 500 people were reached $20 million program ran from July Program 26 peer-reviewed journal through five climate change science 2009 to December 2011. The Manager papers and four book chapters were workshops, and training activities was Gillian Cambers. The three published or in press, five papers across all 15 partner countries. objectives of the PCCSP were to: were submitted to journals and • Conduct a comprehensive climate 23 papers were in preparation. Four tools were developed change science research program Key findings 1. The Pacific Climate Change Data aimed at providing in-depth Portal provides access to historical • The climate of the 15 partner information about past, present and climate trends and basic climate countries in the western tropical future climate in 15 partner countries; information from more than 90 Pacific is strongly influenced by one • Build the capacity of partner individual observation sites across or more of the following features: the country scientific organisations, the Pacific Islands and East Timor; South Pacific Convergence Zone, where feasible, to undertake the West Pacific Monsoon, and the 2. The Pacific Tropical Cyclone scientific research to support the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone; Data Portal provides access to provision of this information; and detailed information and data • Mean temperatures in the region • Disseminate the information to partner on historical tropical cyclones have increased by 0.08 to 0.20°C/ countries and other stakeholders. for the Southern Hemisphere; decade since 1960. Sea level in the region has risen by 2 to 10 mm/year 3. The Tropical Cyclone Wind from 1993-2009, with significant Risk Model estimates the wind year-to-year variability. The global hazard from tropical cyclones; average rate of rise over the same 4. The Pacific Climate Futures web- period is 3.2 mm/year. Rainfall data tool provides national and some since 1960 show large interannual sub-national projections. Across variability due to such factors as the all 15 countries, over 350 people El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and were trained in the Basic interface, large decadal variability due to the and over 100 people were trained Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. There in the Intermediate and Advanced has been no significant change in interfaces. Over 95% of participants tropical cyclone frequency or intensity who completed the Intermediate since 1981 (the satellite era); and Advanced training felt confident using the tool to provide projections to stakeholders, e.g. 2 “Knowing how to use Climate Futures and understanding was a huge “Thanks so much to the team for your is a big plus for us as advisors to boost for my future work as far as assistance throughout the years in government’s key policymakers networking is concerned” – Papua preparing this, it is a very excellent on planning, development, New Guinea National Weather Service piece of work and good to use Nauru infrastructure, agriculture and zoning” for awareness purposes” – Nauru – Federated States of Micronesia 3. Information dissemination “There were some positive feedback “PCCSP Climate Futures will help us At least 219 media items were from people from different sectors to access and provide better scientific published or broadcast as a result of – they find the information very information need for Palau to plan the PCCSP activities. The focus of useful, ideal for sector planning. for future climate change” - Palau these falls into three broad categories: A Land Management Officer of media as result of the two launches of A database named CliDE (Climate Data MNRE thought it was an excellent Climate Change in the Pacific (154), for the Environment) was developed publication. It was one of the most the Greenhouse 2011 conference (24) for the National Meteorological popular brochure on the day since and in-country visits (at least 41). Service (NMS) in each country. It was we have about a few left at the end of successfully installed in 14 partner The report Climate Change in the the day from the 100 we received. So countries and 83 people were trained. Pacific was launched in Australia on we might need some more in future. Over 95% of the trainees reported 25 November 2011. On 6 December We like to thank you for the support feeling comfortable or very comfortable 2011, the report was highlighted again extended to us thus far” - Samoa with operating the database. During at a joint Australian Government / 4. The way forward the in-country visits, the PCCSP Secretariat of the Pacific Environment team organised climate science Programme (SPREP) event at the 17th A gaps and needs analysis of climate workshops that reached over 150 Conference of the Parties (COP17) change science in the region was people. This significant capacity- to the United Nations Framework conducted with partner countries building activity was well received, e.g. Convention on Climate Change and regional organisations in 2010. (UNFCCC) in Durban, South Africa. See The top seven priorities are: “It is so vital because it assists to www.pacificclimatechangescience.org store important data and helps me to • Broader communication of search for data needed from people.