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Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Mushroom Production

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Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Mushroom Production MU17008: Understanding and managing the impacts of climate change on Australian mushroom production Desktop review APPLIED HORTICULTURAL RESEARCH ABN 58 134 308 982 Suite 340, Biomedical Building, 1 Central Avenue, Australian Technology Park, Eveleigh NSW 2015 [email protected] I +612 8627 1040 I www.ahr.com.au Author: Gordon Rogers Mobile: +61 418 51 7777 Email: [email protected] Date 30th May 2020 Disclaimer: Applied Horticultural Research Pty Ltd (AHR) makes no representations and expressly disclaims all warranties (to the extent permitted by law) about the accuracy, completeness, or currency of information in this report. Users of this material should take independent action before relying on its accuracy in any way. Reliance on any information provided by AHR is entirely at your own risk. AHR is not responsible for, and will not be liable for any loss, damage, claim, expense, cost (including legal costs) or other liability arising in any way (including from AHR or any other person’s negligence or otherwise) from your use or non-use of information in this report. APPLIED HORTICULTURAL RESEARCH ABN 58 134 308 982 Suite 340, Biomedical Building, 1 Central Avenue, Australian Technology Park, Eveleigh NSW 2015 [email protected] I +612 8627 1040 I www.ahr.com.au2 Contents Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 6 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 9 2 Australian Mushroom Industry ........................................................................................... 10 3 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Desktop review .................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Industry consultation .......................................................................................................... 11 4 Key findings from the industry consultation ........................................................................ 13 4.1 Climate Change Action Plan ................................................................................................ 13 4.2 Wheat Straw ........................................................................................................................ 13 4.3 Energy .................................................................................................................................. 14 4.4 Casing materials .................................................................................................................. 15 4.5 Water ................................................................................................................................... 16 4.6 Poultry Manure ................................................................................................................... 16 5 Climate change science ....................................................................................................... 17 5.1 Greenhouse gasses and climate .......................................................................................... 17 5.2 Global CO2 levels are rising ................................................................................................. 18 5.3 Greenhouse gas scenarios ................................................................................................... 19 What could happen ............................................................................................................ 19 Climate modelling ............................................................................................................... 20 5.4 Climate variability ................................................................................................................ 20 6 Changes that have already occurred in Australia.................................................................. 22 6.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 22 6.2 Air and sea temperature ..................................................................................................... 22 6.3 Rainfall ................................................................................................................................. 24 6.4 Extreme weather events ..................................................................................................... 24 Heatwave example – Sydney 2020 .................................................................................... 25 7 Predicted future changes in the Australian climate .............................................................. 26 7.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 26 7.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 27 7.3 Predicted climate changes .................................................................................................. 28 Brisbane, Queensland ......................................................................................................... 28 Sydney & Hunter Valley, NSW ............................................................................................ 29 Mildura, Victoria ................................................................................................................. 31 Melbourne, Victoria ............................................................................................................ 32 Adelaide, South Australia ................................................................................................... 34 Perth, Western Australia .................................................................................................... 35 7.4 Weather variability .............................................................................................................. 37 3 7.5 Rising temperatures ............................................................................................................ 37 7.6 Extreme weather events ..................................................................................................... 38 7.7 Understanding the likelihood of changes to key climate variables in a region .................. 40 Scientific uncertainties ....................................................................................................... 40 Policy and behavioural uncertainties ................................................................................. 40 How good have past climate change projections been?.................................................... 41 8 The impact of mushroom production on climate change ...................................................... 42 8.1 Greenhouse gas emissions from mushroom production.................................................... 42 Spanish study ...................................................................................................................... 42 USA study ............................................................................................................................ 43 West Australian study – Curtin University.......................................................................... 44 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 45 9 Mushroom pest ands diseases ............................................................................................ 46 9.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 46 9.2 The current disease status of the Australian industry ........................................................ 46 Established diseases ........................................................................................................... 46 New and emerging diseases ............................................................................................... 47 Susceptibility of Agaricus bisporus to exotic diseases........................................................ 48 The cost of disease ............................................................................................................. 49 9.3 Impact of climate change on pests and diseases ................................................................ 51 Expression of established diseases ..................................................................................... 51 Dispersal of established diseases ....................................................................................... 51 Invertebrate pests .............................................................................................................. 51 Weed moulds ...................................................................................................................... 52 9.4 Climate change and new and emerging pathogens ............................................................ 53 Introduction of new mushroom diseases to Australia ....................................................... 53 Establishment of emerging mushroom diseases in Australia ............................................ 54 References for the pest and disease
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