IV Annexes I to IV

ANNEX I Authors and Expert Reviewers

This annex should be cited as: IPCC, 2012: Authors and expert reviewers annex. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 545-553.

545 Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

Argentina Lieven Bydekerke, VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research Vicente Barros, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires Cathy Clerbaux, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CNRS France Ines Camilloni, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires Luc Feyen, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Hernan Carlino, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Leen Gorissen, VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research Mario Nunez, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires Julien Hoyaux, Agence Wallonne de l’Air et du Climat Matilde Rusticucci, Universidad de Buenos Aires Philippe Marbaix, Université Catholique de Louvain Haris Eduardo Sanahuja, Senior Consultant Anne Mouchet, Universite de Liege Pablo Suarez, Boston University, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre Andrea Tilche, European Commission Directorate Carolina Vera, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires Hans van de Vyvere, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Université Catholique de Louvain Australia Martine Vanderstraeten, Belgian Federal Science Policy Jonathan Abrahams, World Health Organization Patrick Willems, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Lisa Alexander, The University of New South Wales Julie Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Australian Bureau of Botswana Meteorology Pauline Dube, University of Botswana Jon Barnett, Melbourne University Ian Carruthers, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Brazil Bob Cechet, Geoscience Australia Andre Odenbreit Carvalho, Environmental Policy and Sustainable Development Lynda Chambers, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Jose Marengo, National Institute for Space Research, Earth System Science Centre John Church, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Jose Domingos Gonzales Miguez, Tecnologia Commission for Global Climate Change Paul Della-Marta, Partner Reinsurance Company Carlos Nobre, Ministry of Science and Technology Amy Dumbrell, Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Vinicius Rocha, Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico Efficiency Maria Assuncao Silva Dias, University of Sao Paulo Jill Edwards, Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council Ailie Gallant, University of Melbourne Canada John Handmer, Centre for Risk and Community Safety, RMIT University Heather Auld, Environment Canada Mark Hemer, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Anik Beaudoin, Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Adriana Keating, RMIT University Peter Berry, Climate Change and Health Office, Health Canada Monique Ladds, RMIT University Marie Boehm, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Padma Narsey Lal, International Union for Conservation of Nature-Oceania Roy Brooke, United Nations Yun Li, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Ross Brown, Environment Canada at Ouranos Kathleen McInnes, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Stephen Burridge, Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Marine and Atmospheric Research Ian Burton, University of Toronto Neville Nicholls, Monash University, School of Geography and Environmental Science Elizabeth Bush, Environment Canada Lauren Amy Rickards, University of Melbourne John Clague, Simon Fraser University Anthony Swirepik, Australia Government Department of Climate Change and J. Graham Cogley, Trent University Energy Efficiency Neil Comer, Environment Canada Frank Thomalla, Macquarie University John Cooper, Health Canada Richard Thornton, Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre Thea Dickinson, Burton Dickinson Consulting Blair Trewin, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Karen Dodds, Environment Canada Anya M. Waite, University of Western Australia Jimena Eyzaguirre, National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy Xiaoming Wang, Commonwealth Scientifc and Industrial Research Organisation Donald Forbes, Natural Resources Canada Penny Whetton, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Jim Frehs, Health Canada Joshua Whittaker, RMIT University Nathan P. Gillett, Environment Canada Sunling Gong, Environment Canada Austria Christian Gour, Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Stefan Hochrainer, International Institute for Applied System Analysis Patrick Hebert, Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Helmut Hojesky, Bundesministerium fur Land-und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Ole Hendrickson, Environment Canada Wasserwirtschaft Matt Jones, Environment Canada Klaus Radunsky, Umweltbundesamt GmbH Dan Jutzi, Environment Canada Petra Tschakert, Pennsylvania State University Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Environment Canada Grace Koshida, Environment Canada Bangladesh Paul Kovacs, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Md. Siarjul Islam, North South University Beth Lavender, Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Tarik ul Islam, United Nations Development Programme-Bangladesh Donald Lemmen, Natural Resources Canada Alimullah Miyan, South Asian Disaster Management Centre, International University Guilong Li, Environment Canada of Business, Agriculture, and Technology Brad Little, Environment Canada Ainun Nishat, BRAC University John Loder, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Ataur Rahman, Centre for Global Environmental Culture, International University of Heather Low, Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Business, Agriculture, and Technology Katie Lundy, Environment Canada Gordon McBean, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Belgium Brian Mills, Environment Canada Johan Bogaert, Flemish Government Seung-Ki Min, Environment Canada

546 Annex I Authors and Expert Reviewers

Monirul Mirza, Environment Canada Jet-Chau Wen, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology Niall O’Dea, Natural Resources Canada Xiangyang Wu, Research Centre for Sustainable Development Michael Ott, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Liyong Xie, Shenyang Agricultural University William Perrie, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Wei Xu, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Paul Pestieau, Environment Canada Yinlong Xu, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Caroline Rodgers, Clean Air Partnership, Toronto Zheng Yan, Institute of Urban and Environmental Studies Slobodan Simonovic, University of Western Ontario Saini Yang, Beijing Normal University Sharon Smith, Natural Resources Canada Tao Ye, State Key Lab of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Ronald Stewart, University of Manitoba Yi Yuan, National Disaster Reduction Center of China John Stone, Carleton University Yin Yunhe, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences Roger B. Street, UK Climate Impacts Programme Panmao Zhai, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Kit Szeto, Environment Canada Chenyi Zhang, China Meteorological Administration Richard Tarasofsky, Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Zhao Zhang, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Martin Tremblay, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada Zong-Ci Zhao, National Climate Center Liette Vasseur, Brock University Guangsheng Zhou, China Meteorological Administration Elizabeth Walsh, Natural Resources Canada Hongjian Zhou, Nationals Disaster Reduction Center of China Xiaolan Wang, Environment Canada Tao Zhou, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Bin Yu, Environment Canada Tianjun Zhou, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics Xuebin Zhang, Environment Canada Furong Zhu, Ningxia Economic Research Center Francis Zwiers, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria Xukai Zou, China Meteorological Administration

Chile Colombia Paulina Aldunce, University of Chile Ana Campos-Garcia, Consultant Daniel Barrera, Ministry of Agriculture Omar-Dario Cardona, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Gonzalo Leon, Ministry of Environment Carmen Lacambra, Cambridge Coastal Research Unit Alejandro León, Universidad de Chile Pedro Simon Lamprea Quiroga, Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Sebastian Vicuna, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile Environmental Studies Walter Vergara, Inter-American Development Bank China Gustavo Wilches-Chaux, Universidad Andina Simon Bolivar Xing Chen, Nanjing University Ying Chen, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Cook Islands Qin Dahe, China Meteorological Administration Arona Ngari, Cook Islands Meteorological Service Shibo Fang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Qiang Feng, Chinese Academy of Sciences Costa Rica Ge Gao, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration Allan Lavell, Programme for the Social Study of Risk and Disaster Daoyi Gong, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Roberto Villalobos Flores, Instituto Meteorologico Nacional Anhong Guo, Agrometeorological Center of National Meteorological Centre Tong Jiang, China Meteorological Administration Cuba Jianping Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Raul J. Garrido Vazquez, Ministry Science, Technology and Environment Jing Li, Beijing Normal University Tomas Gutierrez Perez, Instituto de Meteorologia Ning Li, Beijing Normal University Avelino G. Suarez, Institute of Ecology and Systematic, Cuban Environmental Agency Erda Lin, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Hongbin Liu, China Meteorological Administration Cyprus Xinhua Liu, Severe Weather Prediction Center of National Meteorological Center Silas Michaelides, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Environment Houquan Lu, National Meteorological Center Xianfu Lu, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Denmark Yali Luo, Chinese Academy of Sciences Kirsten Halsnaes, Risø DTU Wenjun Ma, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Torkil Jonch Clausen, DHI Huixin Meng, Institute for Urban and Environment Studies Anne Mette Jorgensen, Centre Danish Meteorological Jiahua Pan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Karen G. Villholth, GEUS, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Gubo Qi, College of Humanities and Development Studies Fumin Ren, China Meteorological Administration Egypt Guoyu Ren, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Fatma El Mallah, League of Arab States WU Shaohong, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences Wadid Fawzy Erian, Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands Shangbai Shi, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Amal Saad-Hussein, National Research Centre Ying Sun, China Meteorological Administration Adel Yasseen, Ain Shams University, Institute of Environmental Research and Studies Changke Wang, China Meteorological Administration Dongming Wang, Policy Study El Salvador Jianwu Wang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Luis Ernesto Romano, Centro Humboldt Nicaragua Ming Wang, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Xiaoyi Wang, Institute of Sociology Finland Yongguang Wang, China Meteorological Administration Timothy Carter, Finnish Environment Institute Fengying Wei, China Meteorological Administration Hilppa Gregow, Finnish Meteorological Institute

547 Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

Simo Haanpää, Aalto University Nicolas Taillefer, Centre Scientifique et Technique de Batiment Pirkko Heikinheimo, Prime Minister’s Office of Finland Jean-Philippe Torterotot, Cemagref Susanna Kankaanpää, HSY Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority Robert Vautard, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et Sanna Luhtala, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry de l’Environnement Markku Niinioja , Ministry for Foreign Affairs Jean-Philippe Vidal, Cemagref Hannu Raitio, Finnish Forest Research Institute Vincent Viguié, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Karoliina Saarniharo, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Développement Kristiina Säntti, Finnish Meteorological Institute Pascal Yiou, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement Heikki Tuomenvirta, Finnish Meteorological Institute Elina Vapaavuori, Finnish Forest Research Institute Germany Hanna Virta, Finnish Meteorological Institute Gotelind Alber, Women for Climate Justice Christoph Bals, Germanwatch France Hubertus Bardt, Cologne Institute for Economic Research Franck Arnaud, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and Housing Andreas Baumgärtner, Project Management Agency of DLR, German IPCC Slimane Bekki, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire Atmospheres, Milieux, Coordination Office Observations Spatiales Paul Becker, German Weather Service Nicolas Beriot, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and Housing Joern Birkmann, UN University Institute for Environment and Human Security Olivier Bommelaer, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and Hans-Georg Bohle, University of Bonn Housing Hans Gunter Brauch, Freie Universitaet Berlin Olivier Boucher, Met Office Hadley Centre Michael Bründl, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF Paul-Henri Bourrelier, French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction Achim Daschkeit, German Federal Environment Agency Jean-Marie Carriere, Meteo-France Carmen de Jong, University of Savoy Fabrice Chauvin, Meteo-France Thomas Deutschländer, German Meteorological Service Chantal Claud, Institute Pierre-Simon, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Paul Dostal, Project Management Agency of DLR Fabio D’Andrea, Institute Pierre-Simon, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Dirk Engelbart, Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development Sylvie de Smedt, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport and Housing Eberhard Faust, Munich Reinsurance Company Henri Decamps, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Roland Fendler, German Federal Environment Agency Pascale Delecluse, Meteo-France Tobias Fuchs, German Weather Service Michel Deque, Meteo-France Hans-Martin Fuessel, European Environment Agency Pierre-Yves Dupuy, Service Hydrographique et Oceanographique de la Marine Stefan Goessling-Reisemann, University of Bremen Nicolas Eckert, Cemagref Robert Grassmann, Deutsche Welthungerhilfe e.V. Rene Feunteun, French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction Edeltraud Guenther, Technische Universität Dresden JC Gaillard, The University of Auckland Josef Haider, KfW Development Bank Francois Gerard, French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction Angela Michiko Hama, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Marc Gillet, Meteo-France Sven Harmeling, Germanwatch Pascal Girot, IUCN Fred Fokko Hattermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Frederic Grelot, Cemagref Gabriele Hegerl, University of Edinburgh Delphine Grynszpan, UK Health Protection Agency Hans-Joachim Herrmann, German Federal Environment Agency Eric Guilyardi, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire D’Oceanographie et du Climat Anne Holsten, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research Stephane Hallegatte, CIRED and Meteo-France Anke Jentsch, University of Koblenz-Landau Sylvie Joussaume, Paris Consortium on Climate Marcus Kaplan, German Development Institute Reza Lahidji, Groupement de Recherches en Gestion a HEC Christina Koppe-Schaller, Deutscher Wetterdienst Michel Lang, Cemagref Christoph Kottmeier, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Goneri Le Cozannet, Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres Frank Kreienkamp, Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH Jean-Michel Le Quentrec, French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction Christian Kuhlicke, Helmhotz Centre for Environmental Research Antoine Leblois, CIRED Birgit Kuna, Project Management Agency of DLR Alexandre Magnan, Institute fior Sustainable Development and International Relations Nana Künkel, German Agency for International Development Eric Martin, Meteo-France Michael Kunz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Olivier Mestre, Meteo-France Ole Langniss, Fichtner GmbH & Co KG David Meunier, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and Housing Rocio Lichte, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Hormoz Modaressi, Bureau of Geological and Mining Research Petra Mahrenholz, German Federal Environment Agency Roland Nussbaum, Mission Risques Naturels Reinhard Mechler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Sylvie Parey, EDF-France University of Economics Cedric Peinturier, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and Housing Bettina Menne, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe Michel Petit, Conseil General de L’industrie, de L’energie et des Technologies Annette Mohner, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Pierre Picard, Ecole Polytechnique Guido Mücke, German Federal Environment Agency Serge Planton, Méto-France Christian L.C. Müller, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Valentin Przyluski, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le and Nuclear Safety Developpement Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Jean-Luc Salagnac, Centre Scientifique et Technique de Batiment Osnabruck Bernard Seguin, INRA Gertrude Penn-Bressel, German Federal Environment Agency Karen Sudmeier-Reiux, University of Lausanne, IUCN Commission on Ecosystems Jurgen Pohl, University of Bonn Management Joerg Rapp, Deutscher Wetterdienst

548 Annex I Authors and Expert Reviewers

Markus Reichstein, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Mihir Bhatt, India Disaster Mitigation Institute Joachim Rock, Johann Heinrich von Thuenen-Institute Amit Garg, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Benno Rothstein, University of Applied Forest Sciences Rottenburg B.N. Goswami, Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology Peter Rottach, Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe Consultant Manu Gupta, SEEDS Julia Rufin, Federal Minitry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Umesh Haritashya, University of Dayton Safety Ritesh Kumar, Wetlands International - South Asia Evelina Santa, Federal Ministry of Education and Research Pradeep Mujumdar, Indian Institute of Science Philipp Schmidt-Thome, Geological Survey of Finland Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Gudrun Schütze, German Federal Environment Agency Apurva Sanghi, The World Bank Reimund Schwarze, Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research Akhilesh Surjan, United Nations University Joachim H. Spangenberg, Sustainable Europe Research Institute Frank Sperling, World Wildlife Fund, Norway Indonesia Jochen Stuck, Project Management Agency of DLR Edvin Aldrian, Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Swenja Surminski, Association of British Insurers Christiane Textor, Project Management Agency of DLR, German IPCC Coordination Iran Office Rahman Davtalab, Ministry of Energy Annegret Thieken, University of Potsdam Saeid Eslamian, Isfahan University of Technology Uwe Ulbrich, Freie Universitat Berlin Mahnaz Khazaee, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center Martine Vatterodt, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development Mohammad Rahimi, Semnan University Monika Vees, German Federal Environment Agency Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center Gottfried von Gemminingen, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Saviz Sehat Kashani, Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorological Research Center Development Hans von Storch, GKSS Research Center Ireland Martin Voss, Katastrophenforschungsstelle Berlin Ian Bryceson, Norwegian University of Life Sciences Koko Warner, United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security Noel Casserly, Department of the Environment Juergen Weichselgartner, GKSS Research Center Johanna Wolf, Memorial University of Newfoundland Italy Sabine Wurzler, North Rhine Westphalia State Environment Agency Marina Baldi, National Research Council, Institute of Biometeorology Karl-Otto Zentel, Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge e.V. Roberto Bertollini, World Health Organization Francesco Bosello, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan University Ghana Stefano Bovo, ARPA Piemonte Seth Vordzorgbe, United Nations Development Programme Carlo Giupponi, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice and Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change Greece Georg Kaser, University of Innsbruck Christina Anagnostopoulou, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Valentina Pavan, ARPA Emilia-Romagna Helena Flocas, University of Athens Roberto Ranzi, University of Brescia Panagiota Galiatsatou, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Carlo Scaramella, World Food Programme Antonis Koussis, National Observatory of Athens Rodica Tomozeiu, ARPA Emilia-Romagna Aristeidis Koutrouli, Technical University of Crete Athanasios Louka, University of Thessaly Japan Petroula Louka, Hellenic National Meteorological Service Shiho Asano, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute Dimitrios Melas, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Fumiaki Fujibe, Meteorological Research Institute Panayotis Prinos, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Koji Fujita, Nagoya University Ioannis Tsanis, Technical University of Crete Masahiro Hashizume, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University Adonis Velegrakis, University of the Aegean Yasushi Honda, University of Tsukuba Christos Zerefos, Academy of Athens Shinjiro Kanae, Tokyo Institute of Technology Takehiro Kano, Division Ministry of Foreign Affairs Guatemala Miwa Kato, UNFCCC Secretariat Edwin Castellanos, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala Hiroyasu Kawai, Port and Airport Research Institute So Kazama, Tohoku University Hungary Akio Kitoh, Meteorological Research Institute Joseph Feiler, Ministry of National Development Masahide Kondo, University of Tsukuba Ferenc L. Tóth, International Atomic Energy Agency Kazuo Kurihara, Meteorological Research Institute Shoji Kusunoki, Meteorological Research Institute Iceland Takao Masumoto, National Institute for Rural Engineering, National Agriculture and Halldor Bjornsson, Icelandic Meteorological Office Food Research Organization HalldorSigrun Karlsdottir, Icelandic Meteorological Office Nobuo Mimura, Ibaraki University Arni Snorrason, Icelandic Meteorological Office Hisayoshi Morisugi, Nihon University Toshiyuki Nakaegawa, Meteorological Research Institute India Elichi Nakakita, Kyoto University Unnikrishnan Alakkat, National Institute of Oceanography Motoki Nishimori, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences Subbiah Arjunapermal, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center Taikan Oki, University of Tokyo Suruchi Bhadwal, The Energy and Resources Institute Rajib Shaw, Kyoto University

549 Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

Hideo Shiogama, National Institute for Environmental Studies Oyvind Christophersen, Climate and Pollution Agency Yasuto Tachikawa, Kyoto University Solveig Crompton, Ministry of the Environment Kiyoshi Takahashi, National Institute for Environmental Studies Linda Dalen, Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management Izuru Takayabu, Meteorological Research Institute Lars Ingolf Eide, Det Norske Veritas Kuniyoshi Takeuchi, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management Siri Eriksen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences Tadashi Tanaka, University of Tsukuba Christoffer Grønstad, Climate and Pollution Agency Makoto Tani, Kyoto University Hege Haugland, Climate and Pollution Agency Tsugihiro Watanabe, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature Hege Hisdal, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate Hiroya Yamano, National Institute for Environmental Studies Dag O. Høgvold, Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning Linn Bryhn Jacobsen, Climate and Pollution Agency Kenya Vikram Kolmannskog, Norwegian Refugee Council Peter Ambenje, Kenya Meteorological Department Ole-Kristian Kvissel, Climate and Pollution Agency Samwel Marigi, Kenya Meteorological Department Farrokh Nadim, International Centre for Geohazards Charles Mutai, Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources Lars Otto Naess, Institute of Development Studies Christopher Oludhe, University of Nairobi, Department of Meteorology Karen O’Brien, University of Oslo Ellen Øseth, Norwegian Polar Institute Latvia Marit Viktoria Pettersen, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Olga Vilima, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Asgeir Sorteberg, University of Bergen Linda Sygna, University of Oslo Malaysia Kirsten Ulsrud, University of Oslo Joy Jacqueline Pereira, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Vigdis Vestreng, Climate and Pollution Agency Salmah Zakaria, United Nations Economic and Social Commission Pakistan Mauritania Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal, Global Change Impact Studies Centre Gueladio Cisse, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Jawed Ali Khan, Ministry of Environment Maira Zahur, Women for Climate Justice Mexico Victor Cardenas, Climate Change and Natural Disaster Risk Management Palestinian National Authority Tereza Cavazos, El Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Nedal Katbeh-Bader, Environment Quality Authority Ensenada Carolina Neri, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Peru Ursula Oswald-Spring, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Eduardo Calvo, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos Ricardo Zapata-Marti, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and Encinas Carla, Intercooperation the Caribbean Silvia Llosa, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

Mongolia Philippines Ravsal Oyun, JEMR Consulting Company Imelda Abarquez, Oxfam Hong Kong Sanny Jegillos, United Nations Development Programme Morocco Rosa Perez, Manila Observatory Abdalah Mokssit, Direction de la Météorologie Nationale Poland Mozambique Janusz Filipiak, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Felipe Lucio, Global Framework for Climate Services Office, WMO Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Polish Academy of Sciences Zbigniew Ustrnul, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Jagiellonian New Zealand University Reid Basher, Secretariat of the High-Level Taskforce on the Global Framework for Joanna Wibig, University of Lodz Climate Services Leonard Brown, Ministry for the Environment - Manatu Mo Te Taiao Republic of Korea John Campbell, University of Waikato So-Min Cheong, University of Kansas John Hay, University of the South Pacific Tae Sung Cheong, National Emergency Management Agency Glenn McGregor, University of Auckland Soojeong Myeong, Korea Environment Institute Matthew McKinnon, DARA Helen Plume, Ministry for the Environment - Manatu Mo Te Taiao Republic of Maldives David Wratt, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Amjad Abdulla, IPCC Vice Chair WG II, Climate Change Energy Department, Ministry of Housing and Environment Niger Abdelkrim Ben Mohamed, University of Niamey Romania Roxana Bojariu, National Meteorological Administration Norway Sorin Cheval, National Meteorological Administration Torgrim Asphjell, Climate and Pollution Agency Rasmus Benestad, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute Russian Federation Tor A. Benjaminsen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences E. M. Akentyeva, Main Geophysical Observatory Elzbieta Maria Bitner-Gregersen, Det Norske Veritas AS Sergey Borsch, Hydromet Center of Russia

550 Annex I Authors and Expert Reviewers

N. V. Kobysheva, Main Geophysical Observatory Paul Della-Marta, Partner Reinsurance Company Boris Porfiriev, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences Andreas Fischlin, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Systems Ecology Vladimir Semenov, A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Markus Gerber, University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics Boris Sherstyukov, All Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Peter Greminger, Federal Office for Environment Information World Data Center Christian Huggel, University of Zurich Matthias Huss, University of Fribourg Senegal Daniel Kull, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Cherif Diop, Senegalese Meteorological Agency Juerg Luterbacher, Justus Liebig University Joy Muller, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies South Africa Urs Neu, Swiss Academy of Sciences Reinette (Oonsie) Biggs, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University Boris Orlowsky, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich Bruce Glavovic, Massey University Pascal Peduzzi, United Nations Environment Programme Bettina Koelle, Indigo Development and Change Gian-Kasper Plattner, IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit Noel Oettle, Environmental Monitoring Group Dieter Rickenmann, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Coleen Vogel, University of Witwatersrand Stephan Rist, Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern Gina Ziervogel, University of Cape Town Jose Romero, Federal Office for the Environment Sonia Seneviratne, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich Spain Andreas Spiegel, Swiss Re Enric Aguilar, Universitat Rovira i Virgili Thomas Stocker, University of Bern Gerardo Benito, Spanish Council for Scientific Research Philippe Thalmann, EPFL Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne Jorge Bonnet Fernandez Trujillo, Government of the Canary Islands Heinz Wanner, University of Bern Francisco Garcia Novo, University of Seville Andre Wehrli, European Environment Agency José Manuel Gutiérrez, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Heini Wernli, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid Irina Zodrow, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction José Antonio López-Díaz, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología Concepcion Martinez-Lope, Spanish Bureau for Climate Change Tanzania José Moreno, University of Castilla-La Mancha Emmanuel Mpeta, Tanzania Meteorological Agency Francisco Pascual, Spanish Bureau for Climate Change Khamaldin Daud Mutabazi, Sokoine University of Agriculture Jose Ramon Picatoste-Ruggeroni, Spanish Bureau for Climate Change Pius Zebhe Yanda, University of Dar es Salaam Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino, Spanish Meteorological Agency Sabater Sergi, University Girona Thailand Seree Supratid, Rangsit University Sudan Ismail Fadl El Moula Mohamed, Sudan Meteorological Authority The Netherlands Balgis Osman-Elasha, African Development Bank Frans Berkhout, Vrije University Laurens Bouwer, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije University Sweden Hein W. Haak, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Cecilia Alfredsson, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency Albert Klein Tank, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Lars Barring, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Irene Kreis, Health Protection Agency Sten Bergstrom, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Adriaan Perrels, Finnish Meteorological Institute Pelle Boberg, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre Henrik Carlsen, Swedish Defence Research Agency Bart van den Hurk, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Carl Folke, The Beijer Institute, Stockholm University Henny A.J. van Lanen, Wageningen University Clarisse Kehler Siebert, Stockholm Environment Institute Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Carina Keskitalo, Umea University Jeroen Warner, Wageningen University Richard Klein, Stockholm Environment Institute Georg Lindgren, Lund University Trinidad and Tobago Elin Lovendahl, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Veronica Belgrave, Ministry of Planning, Housing, and the Environment Barbro Naslund-Landenmark, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency Carin Nilsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Turkey Ulrika Postgard, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency Salahattin Incecik, Istanbul Technical University Markku Rummukainen, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Johan Schaar, Ministry of Foreign Affairs United Kingdom Lisa Schipper, Stockholm Environment Institute Neil Adger, Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia Ake Svensson, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency Alex Arnall, University of Reading Nigel Arnell, University of Reading Switzerland Victoria Bell, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Simon Allen, IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit Enrico Biffis, Imperial College, London Walter J. Ammann, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Katrina Brown, University of East Anglia Neville Ash, United Nations Environment Programme Simon Brown, Met Office Hadley Centre Stefan Brönnimann, University of Bern Sal Burgess, UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs Carlo Casty, Partner Reinsurance Company Harriet Caldin, Health Protection Agency Nicole Clot, Intercooperation Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, World Health Organization

551 Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

Catriona Carmichael, Health Protection Agency United States of America Amanda Charles, UK Government Office for Science David Allen, US Global Change Research Program Declan Conway, University of East Anglia Tom Armstrong, US Global Change Research Program Tim Conway, UK Department for International Development Jeff Arnold, US Army Corps of Engineers Anita Cooper, Health Protection Agency Margaret Arnold, The World Bank Geoff Darch, Atkins Consultants and University of East Anglia Bilal Ayyub, University of Maryland Ian Davis, Cranfield University Donald Ballantyne, MMI Engineering Ken De Souza, UK Department for International Development Ko Barrett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Andrew Dlugolecki, Climatic Research UnitUniversity of East Anglia Stephen Bender, Organization of American States (retired) Maureen Fordham, Northumbria University Lisa M. Butler-Harrington, The Wharton School, Kansas State University Tim Forsyth, London School of Economics and Political Science JoAnn Carmin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Clare Goodess, University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit Edward Carr, US Administration for International Development Jim Hall, Newcastle University DeWayne Cecil, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Lucy Hayes, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change Christina Chan, US Department of State Clare Heaviside, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Health David Cleaves, US Forest Service Protection Agency Thomas Cronin, US Geological Survey Debbie Hillier, Oxfam International Susan Cutter, University of South Carolina Robert Hodgson, University of Exeter Kirstin Dow, University of South Carolina Sari Kovats, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine David Easterling, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Bo Lim, United Nations Development Programme Climatic Data Center Andrew Maskrey, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Kristie Ebi, IPCC WGII Technical Support Unit Michael McCall, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Barbara Ellis, Center for Disease Control William McGuire, University College London Christopher Emrich, University of South Carolina Thomas Mitchell, Overseas Development Institute Sandy Eslinger, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration John Morton, Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich Ross Faith, US Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction Alessandro Moscuzza, UK Department for International Development Christopher Field, Carnegie Institution for Science Robert Muir-Wood, Risk Management Solutions Stephen Gill, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Virginia Murray, Health Protection Agency Justin Ginnetti, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Katherine Nightingale, Christian Aid William Gutowski, Iowa State University Geoff O’Brien, Northumbria University D.E. (Ed) Harrison, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Phil O’Keefe, Northumbria University Environmental Laboratory Jean Palutikof, Griffith University Jerry Hatfield, US Department of Agriculture Mark Pelling, King’s College London Robert Heilmayr, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program for Environment and Resources, Emily Polack, Institute of Development Studies Stanford University Ben Ramalingam, Overseas Development Institute Molly Hellmuth, International Research Institute for Climate and Society Nicola Ranger, London School of Economics Jeremy Hess, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention John Rees, Natural Environment Research Council, UK Robert Hirsch, US Geological Survey Hannah Rowlatt, Health Protection Agency and University of Sheffield Robert Jarrett, US Geological Survey Sohel Saikat, Health Protection Agency Terry Jeggle, University of Pittsburgh David Satterthwaite, International Institute for Environment & Development Mark Keim, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chris Sear, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change Paul Knappenberger, New Hope Environmental Services A. Simmons, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Thomas Knutson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Robert Siveter, International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation James Kossin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Association Data Center David Smith, University of the West Indies Howard Kunreuther, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Stephen Smith, UK Committee on Climate Change David Lea, US Department of State David Stephenson, University of Exeter Arthur Lee, Chevron Services Company Peter Stott, Met Office Hadley Centre Robin Leichenko, Rutgers University Robert Sykes, International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Maria Carmen Lemos, University of Michigan Association Robert Lempert, RAND Corporation Thomas Tanner, Institute of Development Studies David Levinson, US Forest Service Addis Taye, Health Protection Services Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Emma Tompkins, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus Peter Liotta, Independent Scholar John Twigg, University College London Chris Little, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton Sotiris Vardoulakis, Health Protection Agency University Emma Visman, Humanitarian Futures Programme, King’s College, London David Lobell, Stanford University Tim Waites, UK Department for International Development Pat Longstaff, Syracuse University David Warrilow, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change Alexander Lotsch, The World Bank Paul Watkiss, Paul Watkiss Associates Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute Robert Wilby, University of Loughborough Katharine Mach, IPCC WGII Technical Support Unit Michelle Winthrop, UK Department for International Development Simon Mason, Columbia University Philip Woodworth, National Oceanography Centre Michael Mastrandrea, IPCC WGII Technical Support Unit Ronald Young, Young International Ltd / Knowledge Associates International Ltd Sabrina McCormick, US Environmental Protection Agency

552 Annex I Authors and Expert Reviewers

Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Elke Weber, Columbia University Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Chris Milly, US Geological Survey Jason Westrich, University of Georgia, Odum School of Ecology James Mitchell, Rutgers University Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Marcus Moench, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition Benjamin Wisner, Aon-Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College Susanne Moser, Susanne Moser Research and Consulting London Meredith Muth, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Richard Wright, American Society of Civil Engineers Robert J Naiman, University of Washington Donald Wuebbles, University of Illinois Robert O’Connor, National Science Foundation Tingjun Zhang, University of Colorado National Snow and Ice Data Center Ian O’Donnell, Asian Development Bank Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University Venezuela Jacob Park, Green Mountain College Maria Teresa Abogado, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Roger Pielke Jr., University of Colorado Jose Azuaje, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs David Pierce, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Salvano Briceno, United Nations Mark Powell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Claudia Salerno Caldera, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Michael Prather, University of California, Irvine Isabel Di Carlo Quero, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Roger Pulwarty, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rafael Hernandez, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs David Reidmiller, US Department of State Federico Lagarde, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Dian Seidel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Alejandro Linayo, Research Center on Disaster Risk Reduction Emil Simiu, National Institute of Standards and Technology Luis Jose Mata, International Monetary Fund Anthony-Oliver Smith, Emeritus, University of Florida Yessica Pereira, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting Reina Perez, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Susan Solomon, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rafael Rebolledo, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Doreen Stabinsky, College of the Atlantic Dirk Thielen, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs Amanda Staudt, National Wildlife Federation Ronald Stouffer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Vietnam Trigg Talley, US Department of State Mai Trong Nhuan, Vietnam National University Wassila Thiaw, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Bach Tan Sinh, National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy John Tiefenbacher, Texas State University Studies Sezin Tokar, US Agency for International Development Kevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research Zambia Thomas Wagner, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Raban Chanda, University of Botswana Robert Webb, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

553 Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

554 ANNEX II Glossary of Terms

This annex should be cited as: IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.

555 Glossary of Terms Annex II

Abrupt climate change Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) The nonlinearity of the climate system may lead to abrupt climate A multi-decadal (65- to 75-year) fluctuation in the North Atlantic, in change, sometimes called rapid climate change, abrupt events, or even which sea surface temperatures showed warm phases during roughly surprises. The term abrupt often refers to time scales faster than the 1860 to 1880 and 1930 to 1960 and cool phases during 1905 to 1925 typical time scale of the responsible forcing. However, not all abrupt and 1970 to 1990 with a range of the order of 0.4°C. climate changes need be externally forced. Some changes may be truly unexpected, resulting from a strong, rapidly changing forcing of a Atmosphere nonlinear system. The gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing ratio) and Adaptation oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of trace In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected gases, such as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium, and radiatively climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035% volume mixing opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual ratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains the greenhouse climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to gas water vapor, whose amounts are highly variable but typically expected climate. around 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds and aerosols. Adaptation assessment The practice of identifying options to adapt to climate change and Available potential energy evaluating them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, costs, That portion of the total potential energy that may be converted to effectiveness, efficiency, and feasibility. kinetic energy in an adiabatically enclosed system.

Adaptive capacity Baseline/reference The combination of the strengths, attributes, and resources available to The baseline (or reference) is the state against which change is measured. an individual, community, society, or organization that can be used to It might be a ‘current baseline,’ in which case it represents observable, prepare for and undertake actions to reduce adverse impacts, moderate present-day conditions. It might also be a ‘future baseline,’ which is a harm, or exploit beneficial opportunities. projected future set of conditions excluding the driving factor of interest. Alternative interpretations of the reference conditions can give rise to Aerosols multiple baselines. A collection of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical size between 0.01 and 10 μm, that reside in the atmosphere for at least Capacity several hours. Aerosols may be of either natural or anthropogenic The combination of all the strengths, attributes, and resources available origin. Aerosols may influence climate in several ways: directly through to an individual, community, society, or organization, which can be used scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud to achieve established goals. condensation nuclei or modifying the optical properties and lifetime of clouds. Carbon cycle The term used to describe the flow of carbon (in various forms, e.g., as Albedo carbon dioxide) through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or object, often and lithosphere. expressed as a percentage. Snow-covered surfaces have a high albedo, the surface albedo of soils ranges from high to low, and vegetation- Carbon dioxide (CO2) covered surfaces and oceans have a low albedo. The Earth’s planetary A naturally occurring gas fixed by photosynthesis into organic matter. albedo varies mainly through varying cloudiness, snow, ice, leaf area, A byproduct of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, it is also and land cover changes. emitted from land use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas that affects the Earth’s radiative Anthropogenic balance. It is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases Resulting from or produced by human beings. are measured, thus having a Global Warming Potential of 1.

Anthropogenic emissions Catchment Emissions of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas precursors, and aerosols An area that collects and drains precipitation. associated with human activities. These activities include the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes, livestock, fertilization, etc., Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (or equation) that result in a net increase in emissions. The differential equation relating the pressure of a substance (usually

556 Annex II Glossary of Terms

water vapor) to temperature in a system in which two phases of the components a spectrum or hierarchy of models can be identified, differing substance (water) are in equilibrium. in such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical, or biological processes are explicitly represented, or Climate the level at which empirical parameterizations are involved. Coupled Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs), also referred to as more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, provide a representation variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months of the climate system that is near the most comprehensive end of the to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging spectrum currently available. There is an evolution toward more complex these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological models with interactive chemistry and biology. Climate models are Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables applied as a research tool to study and simulate the climate, and for such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal, and interannual climate is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. In predictions. various chapters in this report different averaging periods, such as a period of 20 years, are also used. Climate projection A projection of the response of the climate system to emissions or Climate change concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission/ decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal concentration/radiative-forcing scenario used, which are based on processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes assumptions concerning, e.g., future socioeconomic and technological in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.1 See also Climate developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore variability and Detection and attribution. subject to substantial uncertainty.

Climate extreme (extreme weather or climate event) Climate scenario The occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that observed values of the variable. For simplicity, both extreme weather has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential events and extreme climate events are referred to collectively as ‘climate consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input extremes.’ The full definition is provided in Section 3.1.2. to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw material for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require Climate feedback additional information such as about the observed current climate. An interaction mechanism between processes in the climate system is called a climate feedback when the result of an initial process triggers Climate system changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial one. A The climate system is the highly complex system consisting of five major positive feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback components: the atmosphere, the oceans, the cryosphere, the land reduces it. surface, the biosphere, and the interactions between them. The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own internal dynamics Climate model and because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, solar A numerical representation of the climate system that is based on the variations, and anthropogenic forcings such as the changing composition physical, chemical, and biological properties of its components, their of the atmosphere and land use change. interactions, and feedback processes, and that accounts for all or some of its known properties. The climate system can be represented by models Climate threshold of varying complexity, that is, for any one component or combination of A critical limit within the climate system that induces a non-linear response to a given forcing. See also Abrupt climate change.

______Climate variability 1 This definition differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change is defined as: “a change of climate Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability the climate at all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual observed over comparable time periods.” The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes. within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural

557 Glossary of Terms Annex II

or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also Climate Disaster change. Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social Cold days/cold nights conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, Days where maximum temperature, or nights where minimum or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to temperature, falls below the 10th percentile, where the respective satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for temperature distributions are generally defined with respect to the recovery. 1961-1990 reference period. Disaster management Community-based disaster risk management Social processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, See Local disaster risk management. policies, and measures that promote and improve disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices at different organizational and societal Confidence levels. Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence and on the degree of agreement. Disaster risk Confidence is expressed qualitatively. The likelihood over a specified time period of severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous Control run physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to A model run carried out to provide a ‘baseline’ for comparison with widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental climate change experiments. The control run uses constant values for effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical the radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic human needs and that may require external support for recovery. aerosols appropriate to pre-industrial conditions. Disaster risk management (DRM) Convection Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, Vertical motion driven by buoyancy forces arising from static instability, policies, and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, usually caused by near-surface cooling or increases in salinity in the case foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous of the ocean and near-surface warming in the case of the atmosphere. improvement in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices, At the location of convection, the horizontal scale is approximately the with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, well-being, same as the vertical scale, as opposed to the large contrast between quality of life, and sustainable development. these scales in the general circulation. The net vertical mass transport is usually much smaller than the upward and downward exchange. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) Denotes both a policy goal or objective, and the strategic and Coping instrumental measures employed for anticipating future disaster risk; The use of available skills, resources, and opportunities to address, reducing existing exposure, hazard, or vulnerability; and improving manage, and overcome adverse conditions, with the aim of achieving resilience. basic functioning in the short to medium term. Diurnal temperature range Coping capacity The difference between the maximum and minimum temperature The ability of people, organizations, and systems, using available skills, during a 24-hour period. resources, and opportunities, to address, manage, and overcome adverse conditions. Downscaling Downscaling is a method that derives local- to regional-scale (up to Detection and attribution 100 km) information from larger-scale models or data analyses. The full Climate varies continually on all time scales. Detection of climate definition is provided in Section 3.2.3. change is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that Drought change. Attribution of causes of climate change is the process of A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some hydrological imbalance. Drought is a relative term (see Box 3-3), defined level of confidence. therefore any discussion in terms of precipitation deficit must refer to the particular precipitation-related activity that is under discussion. For Diabatic example, shortage of precipitation during the growing season impinges A process in which external heat is gained or lost by the system. on crop production or ecosystem function in general (due to soil moisture

558 Annex II Glossary of Terms

drought, also termed agricultural drought), and during the runoff and of uncertainty. Ensembles made with the same model but different percolation season primarily affects water supplies (hydrological drought). initial conditions only characterize the uncertainty associated with Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected by internal climate variability, whereas multi-model ensembles including increases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reductions in simulations by several models also include the impact of model precipitation. A period with an abnormal precipitation deficit is defined as differences. Perturbed parameter ensembles, in which model parameters a meteorological drought. A megadrought is a very lengthy and pervasive are varied in a systematic manner, aim to produce a more objective drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more. estimate of modeling uncertainty than is possible with traditional multi- model ensembles. Early warning system The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and Evapotranspiration meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, and The combined process of evaporation from the Earth’s surface and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately transpiration from vegetation. and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. Exposure El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) The presence of people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; The term El Niño was initially used to describe a warm-water current infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could that periodically flows along the coast of Ecuador and Peru, disrupting the be adversely affected. local fishery. It has since become identified with a basin-wide warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean east of the dateline. This oceanic event is External forcing associated with a fluctuation of a global-scale tropical and subtropical External forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate system surface pressure pattern called the Southern Oscillation. This coupled causing a change in the climate system. Volcanic eruptions, solar variations, atmosphere-ocean phenomenon, with preferred time scales of 2 to and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere and about 7 years, is collectively known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. land use change are external forcings. It is often measured by the surface pressure anomaly difference between Darwin and Tahiti and the sea surface temperatures in the central and Extratropical cyclone eastern equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO event, the prevailing trade Any cyclonic-scale storm that is not a tropical cyclone. Usually refers to winds weaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents such a middle- or high-latitude migratory storm system formed in regions of that the sea surface temperatures warm, further weakening the trade large horizontal temperature variations. Sometimes called extratropical winds. This event has a great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature, storm or extratropical low. and precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of the world, Extreme coastal high water (also referred to as extreme sea level) through global teleconnections. The cold phase of ENSO is called La Niña. Extreme coastal high water depends on average sea level, tides, and regional weather systems. Extreme coastal high water events are Emissions scenario usually defined in terms of the higher percentiles (e.g., 90th to 99.9th) A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of of a distribution of hourly values of observed sea level at a station for a substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse gases, given reference period. aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as technological change, demographic and Extreme weather or climate event socioeconomic development) and their key relationships. Concentration See Climate extreme. scenarios, derived from emissions scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate projections. In the IPCC 1992 Supplementary Famine Report, a set of emissions scenarios was presented, which were used as Scarcity of food over an extended period and over a large geographical a basis for the climate projections in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. area, such as a country. Famines may be triggered by extreme climate These emissions scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In the events such as drought or floods, but can also be caused by disease, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, new emissions scenarios, the war, or other factors. so-called SRES scenarios, were published. SRES scenarios (e.g., A1B, A1FI, A2, B1, B2) are used as a basis for some of the climate projections Flood shown in Chapter 3 of this report. The overflowing of the normal confines of a stream or other body of water, or the accumulation of water over areas that are not normally Ensemble submerged. Floods include river (fluvial) floods, flash floods, urban A group of parallel model simulations used for climate projections. floods, pluvial floods, sewer floods, coastal floods, and glacial lake Variation of the results across the ensemble members gives an estimate outburst floods.

559 Glossary of Terms Annex II

Frozen ground concentration of greenhouse gases leads to an increased infrared Soil or rock in which part or all of the pore water is frozen. Perennially opacity of the atmosphere and therefore to an effective radiation into frozen ground is called permafrost. Ground that freezes and thaws space from a higher altitude at a lower temperature. This causes a annually is called seasonally frozen ground. radiative forcing that leads to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect, the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect. Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) Flood associated with outburst of glacial lake. Glacial lake outburst Greenhouse gas floods are typically a result of cumulative developments and occur (i) Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, only once (e.g., full breach failure of moraine-dammed lakes), (ii) for the both natural and anthropogenic, which absorb and emit radiation at first time (e.g., new formation and outburst of glacial lakes), and/or (iii) specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiation repeatedly (e.g., ice-dammed lakes with drainage cycles, or ice fall). emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapor (H2O), carbon Glacier dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and ozone (O3) are A mass of land ice that flows downhill under gravity (through internal the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, deformation and/or sliding at the base) and is constrained by internal there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the stress and friction at the base and sides. A glacier is maintained by atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine- accumulation of snow at high altitudes, balanced by melting at low containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Besides altitudes or discharge into the sea. CO2, N2O, and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons Global climate model (also referred to as (PFCs). general circulation model, both abbreviated as GCM) See Climate model. Hazard The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event Global surface temperature that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as The global surface temperature is an estimate of the global mean surface damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, air temperature. However, for changes over time, only anomalies, as and environmental resources. departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area-weighted global average of the sea surface temperature anomaly Heat wave (also referred to as extreme heat event) and land surface air temperature anomaly. A period of abnormally hot weather. Heat waves and warm spells have various and in some cases overlapping definitions. See also Warm spell. Governance The way government is understood has changed in response to social, Holocene economic, and technological changes over recent decades. There is a The Holocene geological epoch is the latter of two Quaternary epochs, corresponding shift from government defined strictly by the nation-state extending from about 11.6 thousand years before present to and to a more inclusive concept of governance, recognizing the contributions including the present. of various levels of government (global, international, regional, local) and the roles of the private sector, of nongovernmental actors, and of Human security civil society. Human security can be said to have two main aspects. It means, first, safety from such chronic threats as hunger, disease, and repression. And Greenhouse effect second, it means protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the Greenhouse gases effectively absorb thermal infrared radiation, emitted patterns of daily life – whether in homes, in jobs, or in communities. by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself due to the same gases, Such threats can exist at all levels of national income and development. and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted to all sides, including downward to the Earth’s surface. Thus, greenhouse gases trap heat Hydrological cycle (also referred to as water cycle) within the surface-troposphere system. This is called the greenhouse The cycle in which water evaporates from the oceans and the land effect. Thermal infrared radiation in the troposphere is strongly coupled surface, is carried over the Earth in atmospheric circulation as water to the temperature of the atmosphere at the altitude at which it is vapor, condenses to form clouds, precipitates again as rain or snow, is emitted. In the troposphere, the temperature generally decreases with intercepted by trees and vegetation, provides runoff on the land surface, height. Effectively, infrared radiation emitted to space originates from infiltrates into soils, recharges groundwater, and/or discharges into an altitude with a temperature of, on average, -19°C, in balance with streams and flows out into the oceans, and ultimately evaporates again the net incoming solar radiation, whereas the Earth’s surface is kept at from the oceans or land surface. The various systems involved in the a much higher temperature of, on average, 14°C. An increase in the hydrological cycle are usually referred to as hydrological systems.

560 Annex II Glossary of Terms

Impacts change lying in a given range. Likelihood may be based on statistical or Effects on natural and human systems. In this report, the term ‘impacts’ modeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative is used to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physical analyses. events, of disasters, and of climate change. Local disaster risk management (LDRM) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) The process in which local actors (citizens, communities, government, Large-scale interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the non-profit organizations, institutions, and businesses) engage in and Indian Ocean. This pattern manifests through a zonal gradient of tropical have ownership of the identification, analysis, evaluation, monitoring, sea surface temperature, which in one extreme phase in boreal autumn and treatment of disaster risk and disasters, through measures that shows cooling off Sumatra and warming off Somalia in the west, reduce or anticipate hazard, exposure, or vulnerability; transfer risk; combined with anomalous easterlies along the equator. improve disaster response and recovery; and promote an overall increase in capacities. LDRM normally requires coordination with and Insurance/reinsurance support from external actors at the regional, national, or international A family of financial instruments for sharing and transferring risk among levels. Community-based disaster risk management is a subset of a pool of at-risk households, businesses, and/or governments. See Risk LDRM where community members and organizations are in the center transfer. of decisionmaking.

Landslide Mass movement A mass of material that has moved downhill by gravity, often assisted Mass movement in the context of mountainous phenomena refers to by water when the material is saturated. The movement of soil, rock, different types of mass transport processes including landslides, or debris down a slope can occur rapidly, or may involve slow, gradual avalanches, rock fall, or debris flows. failure. Mean sea level Land surface air temperature Sea level measured by a tide gauge with respect to the land upon which The air temperature as measured in well-ventilated screens over land at it is situated. Mean sea level is normally defined as the average relative sea 1.5 to 2 m above the ground. level over a period, such as a month or a year, long enough to average out transients such as waves and tides. See Sea level change. Land use and land use change Land use refers to the total of arrangements, activities, and inputs Meridional overturning circulation (MOC) undertaken in a certain land cover type (a set of human actions). The Meridional (north-south) overturning circulation in the ocean quantified term land use is also used in the sense of the social and economic by zonal (east-west) sums of mass transports in depth or density layers. purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction, In the North Atlantic, away from the subpolar regions, the MOC (which and conservation). Land use change refers to a change in the use or is in principle an observable quantity) is often identified with the management of land by humans, which may lead to a change in land thermohaline circulation, which is a conceptual interpretation. However, cover. Land cover and land use change may have an impact on the it must be borne in mind that MOC can also include shallower, wind- surface albedo, evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhouse driven overturning cells such as occur in the upper ocean in the tropics gases, or other properties of the climate system and may thus have and subtropics, in which warm (less dense) waters moving poleward are radiative forcing and/or other impacts on climate, locally or globally. transformed to slightly denser waters and subducted equatorward at deeper levels. Lapse rate The rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature, Mitigation (of disaster risk and disaster) with height. The lapse rate is considered positive when the variable The lessening of the potential adverse impacts of physical hazards decreases with height. (including those that are human-induced) through actions that reduce hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Latent heat flux The flux of heat from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere that is Mitigation (of climate change) associated with evaporation or condensation of water vapor at the A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of surface; a component of the surface energy budget. greenhouse gases.

Likelihood Modes of climate variability A probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an Natural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal and outcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected longer time scales, predominantly occurs with preferred spatial patterns

561 Glossary of Terms Annex II

and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric of the data set values that is equal to or below it. The percentile is often circulation and through interactions with the land and ocean surfaces. used to estimate the extremes of a distribution. For example, the 90th Such patterns are often called regimes, modes, or teleconnections. (10th) percentile may be used to refer to the threshold for the upper Examples are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North (lower) extremes. American pattern (PNA), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM; previously called the Arctic Oscillation, Permafrost AO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; previously called the Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that remains Antarctic Oscillation, AAO). at or below 0°C for at least 2 consecutive years.

Monsoon Predictability A monsoon is a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in both the The extent to which future states of a system may be predicted based surface winds and associated precipitation, caused by differential on knowledge of current and past states of the system. heating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean. Monsoon rains occur mainly over land in summer. Probability density function (PDF) A probability density function is a function that indicates the relative Nonlinearity chances of occurrence of different outcomes of a variable. The function A process is called nonlinear when there is no simple proportional integrates to unity over the domain for which it is defined and has the relation between cause and effect. The climate system contains many property that the integral over a sub-domain equals the probability that such nonlinear processes, resulting in a system with a potentially very the outcome of the variable lies within that sub-domain. For example, complex behavior. Such complexity may lead to abrupt climate change. the probability that a temperature anomaly defined in a particular way See also Predictability. is greater than zero is obtained from its PDF by integrating the PDF over all possible temperature anomalies greater than zero. Probability North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) density functions that describe two or more variables simultaneously The North Atlantic Oscillation consists of opposing variations in barometric are similarly defined. pressure near Iceland and near the Azores. It therefore corresponds to fluctuations in the strength of the main westerly winds across the Projection Atlantic into Europe, and thus to fluctuations in the embedded cyclones A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of with their associated frontal systems. quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projections Northern Annular Mode (NAM) involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and A winter fluctuation in the amplitude of a pattern characterized by low technological developments that may or may not be realized, and are surface pressure in the Arctic and strong mid-latitude westerlies. NAM therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. See also Climate projection has links with the northern polar vortex into the stratosphere. Its and Climate prediction. pattern has a bias to the North Atlantic and has a large correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Proxy climate indicator A proxy climate indicator is a local record that is interpreted, using Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) physical and biophysical principles, to represent some combination of The pattern and time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of climate-related variations back in time. Climate-related data derived in sea surface temperature over the North Pacific north of 20°N. PDO this way are referred to as proxy data. Examples of proxies include broadened to cover the whole Pacific Basin is known as the Inter-decadal pollen analysis, tree ring records, characteristics of corals, and various Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The PDO and IPO exhibit virtually identical data derived from ice cores. The term ‘proxy’ can also be used to refer temporal evolution. to indirect estimates of present-day conditions, for example, in the absence of observations. Parameterization In climate models, this term refers to the technique of representing Radiative forcing processes that cannot be explicitly resolved at the spatial or temporal Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, resolution of the model (sub-grid scale processes) by relationships irradiance (expressed in W m–2) at the tropopause due to a change in between model-resolved larger-scale flow and the area- or time-averaged an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change in effect of such sub-grid scale processes. the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric properties held fixed at their Percentile unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, A percentile is a value on a scale of 100 that indicates the percentage if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative

562 Annex II Glossary of Terms

forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperature from projections, but are often based on additional information from is accounted for. For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing is other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. See also further defined as the change relative to the year 1750 and, unless Climate scenario and Emissions scenario. otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value. Radiative forcing is not to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, a similar Sea level change terminology for describing an unrelated measure of the impact of Changes in sea level, globally or locally, due to (i) changes in the shape clouds on the irradiance at the top of the atmosphere. of the ocean basins, (ii) changes in the total mass and distribution of water and land ice, (iii) changes in water density, and (iv) changes in Reanalysis ocean circulation. Sea level changes induced by changes in water Reanalyses are atmospheric and oceanic analyses of temperature, wind, density are called steric. Density changes induced by temperature current, and other meteorological and oceanographic quantities, created changes only are called thermosteric, while density changes induced by by processing past meteorological and oceanographic data using fixed salinity changes are called halosteric. See also Mean sea level. state-of-the-art weather forecasting models and data assimilation techniques. Using fixed data assimilation avoids effects from the Sea surface temperature (SST) changing analysis system that occur in operational analyses. Although The sea surface temperature is the temperature of the subsurface bulk continuity is improved, global reanalyses still suffer from changing temperature in the top few meters of the ocean, measured by ships, coverage and biases in the observing systems. buoys, and drifters. From ships, measurements of water samples in buckets were mostly switched in the 1940s to samples from engine intake Relative sea level water. Satellite measurements of skin temperature (uppermost layer; a See Mean sea level. fraction of a millimeter thick) in the infrared or the top centimeter or so in the microwave are also used, but must be adjusted to be compatible Resilience with the bulk temperature. The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a Sensible heat flux timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, The flux of heat from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere that is not restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions. associated with phase changes of water; a component of the surface energy budget. Return period An estimate of the average time interval between occurrences of an Significant wave height event (e.g., flood or extreme rainfall) of (or below/above) a defined size The average height of the highest one-third of the wave heights (trough or intensity. to peak) from sea and swell occurring in a particular time period.

Return value Soil moisture The highest (or, alternatively, lowest) value of a given variable, on Water stored in or at the land surface and available for evapotranspiration. average occurring once in a given period of time (e.g., in 10 years). Southern Annular Mode (SAM) Risk transfer The fluctuation of a pattern like the Northern Annular Mode, but in the The process of formally or informally shifting the financial consequences Southern Hemisphere. of particular risks from one party to another whereby a household, community, enterprise, or state authority will obtain resources from SRES scenarios the other party after a disaster occurs, in exchange for ongoing or See Emissions scenario. compensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party. Storm surge Runoff The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of the sea That part of precipitation that does not evaporate and is not transpired, due to extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressure but flows through the ground or over the ground surface and returns to and/or strong winds). The storm surge is defined as being the excess bodies of water. See Hydrological cycle. above the level expected from the tidal variation alone at that time and place. Scenario A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may Storm tracks develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions Originally, a term referring to the tracks of individual cyclonic weather about driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived systems, but now often generalized to refer to the regions where the

563 Glossary of Terms Annex II

main tracks of extratropical disturbances occur as sequences of low Uncertainty (cyclonic) and high (anticyclonic) pressure systems. An expression of the degree to which a value or relationship is unknown. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from Streamflow disagreement about what is known or even knowable. Uncertainty may Water flow within a river channel, for example, expressed in m3 s-1. A originate from many sources, such as quantifiable errors in the data, synonym for river discharge. ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by Subsidiarity quantitative measures, for example, a range of values calculated by The principle that decisions of government (other things being equal) are various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the best made and implemented, if possible, at the lowest most decentralized judgment of a team of experts. See also Likelihood and Confidence. level closest to the citizen. Subsidiarity is designed to strengthen accountability and reduce the dangers of making decisions in places Urban heat island remote from their point of application. The principle does not necessarily The relative warmth of a city compared with surrounding rural areas, limit or constrain the action of higher orders of government, it merely associated with changes in runoff, the concrete jungle effects on heat counsels against the unnecessary assumption of responsibilities at a retention, changes in surface albedo, changes in pollution and aerosols, higher level. and so on.

Surface temperature Vulnerability See Global surface temperature, Land surface air temperature, and Sea The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. surface temperature. Warm days/warm nights Sustainable development Days where maximum temperature, or nights where minimum Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising temperature, exceeds the 90th percentile, where the respective the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. temperature distributions are generally defined with respect to the 1961-1990 reference period. Transpiration The evaporation of water vapor from the surfaces of leaves through Warm spell stomata. A period of abnormally warm weather. Heat waves and warm spells have various and in some cases overlapping definitions. See also Heat Transformation wave. The altering of fundamental attributes of a system (including value systems; regulatory, legislative, or bureaucratic regimes; financial institutions; and technological or biological systems).

Tropical cyclone The general term for a strong, cyclonic-scale disturbance that originates over tropical oceans. Distinguished from weaker systems (often named tropical disturbances or depressions) by exceeding a threshold wind speed. A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with one-minute average surface winds between 18 and 32 m s-1. Beyond 32 m s-1, a tropical cyclone is called a hurricane, typhoon, or cyclone, depending on geographic location.

564 ANNEX III Acronyms

565 Acronyms Annex III

AAO Antarctic Oscillation GEC global environmental change ADAPT Assessment & Design for Adaptation to Climate GEF Global Environment Facility Change: A Prototype Tool GFCS Global Framework on Climate Services AMO Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery AO Arctic Oscillation GHG greenhouse gas AR5 Fifth Assessment Report GIS geographic information system CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy GLOF glacial lake outburst flood CAT catastrophic risk GNCSODR Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for CBA cost-benefit analysis or community-based adaptation Disaster Reduction CBD Convention on Biological Diversity GPS Global Positioning System CBDR common but differentiated responsibilities and GSDI Global Spatial Data Infrastructure respective capabilities H2O water CBO community-based organization HARS Heat Action Response System CCA climate change adaptation HDI Human Development Index CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility HEP hydroelectric power CCSP Climate Change Science Program (US) HFA Hyogo Framework for Action CDD Consecutive Dry Days HFC hydrofluorocarbon CDM Clean Development Mechanism HWDI Heat Wave Duration Index CEE Centre for Environment Education HWS Heat Warning System CEI Climate Extremes Index IADB Inter-American Development Bank C-ERA-40 Corrected ERA-40 reanalysis IAM integrated assessment model CFR case fatality rate ICSU International Council for Science CH4 methane ICT information and communication technology CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 ICZM integrated coastal zone management CO2 carbon dioxide IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre COP Conference of the Parties IDNDR International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction CPP cyclone preparedness program IDP internally displaced person CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters IDRL International Disaster Response Law CSA Canadian Standards Association IHL international humanitarian law CSO civil society organization IOD Indian Ocean Dipole CSR corporate social responsibility IPO Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation DDI Disaster Deficit Index IRDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk program DFID Department for International Development (UK) ISSC International Social Science Council DJF December-January-February ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone DRM disaster risk management IWRM integrated water resource management DRR disaster risk reduction JJA June-July-August DRRM disaster risk reduction management LA RED Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en EbA ecosystem-based adaptation América Latina EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development LDC least-developed country EDI Ethiopia Drought Index LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund ELF Emergency Liquidity Facility LDRM local disaster risk management EM-DAT Emergency Events Database LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts MDGs Millennium Development Goals 40-year reanalysis MFI micro-finance institution EVT extreme value theory MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation EWS early warning system MLP multi-level perspective FAO Food and Agriculture Organization MME Multi-Model Ensemble (CMIP3) FONDEN Fund for Natural Disasters MOC meridional overturning circulation GAR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction MPBI Indonesian Society for Disaster Management GCM global climate model MSLP mean sea level pressure GDP gross domestic product N2O nitrous oxide

566 Annex III Acronyms

NAM Northern Annular Mode SDLE Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early NAO North Atlantic Oscillation SDMP School Disaster Management Plans NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action SECO Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs NaTech Natural Hazard Triggering a Technological Disaster SF6 sulfur hexafluoride NDMO National Disaster Management Office SHELDUS Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the NECJOGHA Network of Climate Journalists of the Greater Horn of United States Africa SIDS small island developing states NGO nongovernmental organization SIS small island states NHC National Hurricane Committee SMA soil moisture anomaly NIDM National Disaster Management Institute SMEs small- and medium-sized enterprises NMHS national meteorological and hydrological service SOI Southern Oscillation Index NTR non-tide residuals SPA Strategic Priority ‘Piloting an Operational Approach to NU Nunavut Adaptation’ NWP Nairobi Work Programme SPEI Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index NWT Northwest Territories SPI Standard Precipitation Index O3 ozone SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of SST sea surface temperature Humanitarian Affairs SWH significant wave height ODA official development assistance UN United Nations OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme OFDA Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate OLR outgoing longwave radiation Change PAR pressure and release UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster PDF probability density function Reduction PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation WDSI Warm Spell Duration Index PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index WFP World Food Programme PESETA Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in WHO World Health Organization Sectors of the European Union based on boTtom-up WMO World Meteorological Organization Analysis YT Yukon Territory PFC perfluorocarbon PICs Pacific Island Countries and Territories PNA Pacific North American pattern POPs persistent organic pollutants PPEA Precipitation Potential Evaporation Anomaly PPP public-private partnership Pr precipitation PSNP Productive Safety Net Programme PTSD post-traumatic stress disorder PVI Prevalent Vulnerability Index RAC Regional Adaptation Collaborative RANET RAdio and InterNET RCM regional climate model REDD reduced carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation REDD+ reduced carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, maintaining/enhancing carbon stocks, and promoting sustainable forest management RMI Republic of the Marshall Islands SAM Southern Annular Mode SAMS South American Monsoon System SCCF Special Climate Change Fund

567 Acronyms Annex III

568 ANNEX IV List of Major IPCC Reports

569 List of Major IPCC Reports Annex IV

Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment Technologies, Policies, and Measures Report of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group for Mitigating Climate Change 1990 IPCC Technical Paper I 1996 Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment Report of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group An Introduction to Simple Climate Models 1990 used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report IPCC Technical Paper II Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies 1997 Report of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group 1990 Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Biological, and Socio-Economic Implications Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report IPCC Technical Paper III to the IPCC Scientific Assessment 1997 Report of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group

1992 Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations IPCC Technical Paper IV Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report 1997 to the IPCC Impacts Assessment Report of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group The Regional Impacts of Climate Change 1992 IPCC Special Report 1998 Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments – IPCC First Assessment Report Overview and Policymaker Aviation and the Global Atmosphere Summaries, and 1992 IPCC Supplement IPCC Special Report 1992 1999

Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology Transfer and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios IPCC Special Report IPCC Special Report 2000 1994 Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change IPCC Special Report Contribution of Working Group I 2000 to the IPCC Second Assessment Report 1996 Emissions Scenarios IPCC Special Report Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation 2000 of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses Contribution of Working Group II Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis to the IPCC Second Assessment Report Contribution of Working Group I 1996 to the IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001 Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group III Contribution of Working Group II to the IPCC Second Assessment Report to the IPCC Third Assessment Report 1996 2001

Climate Change 1995: IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis Climate Change 2001: Mitigation of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Contribution of Working Group III Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to the IPCC Third Assessment Report 1996 2001

570 Annex IV List of Major IPCC Reports

Climate Change 2001: IPCC Third Assessment Synthesis Report 2001

Climate Change and Biodiversity IPCC Technical Paper V 2002

Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons and Perfluorocarbons IPCC Special Report 2005

Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage IPCC Special Report 2005

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007

Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change Contribution of Working Group III to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report 2008

Climate Change and Water IPCC Technical Paper VI 2008

Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation IPCC Special Report 2011

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation IPCC Special Report 2012

Enquiries: IPCC Secretariat, c/o World Meteorological Organization, 7 bis, Avenue de la Paix, Case Postale 2300, CH - 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland

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