Latin American Outlook 2017.Pdf

CENTER FOR HEMISPHERIC DEFENSE STUDIES 2012 EDITION, NO. 1 (APRIL) Regional Insights L ATIN A MERICAN O UT loo K 2017 By R. Evan Ellis CHDS Associate Professor of National Security Affairs Abstract: This article addresses the major themes and pivot points of the defense and security environment of Latin America through the next five years. This analysis begins with the projection of nine major ongoing themes in the region: the rise of an Asia-oriented political economy; the expansion of Chinese defense engagement; a transformation from Bolivarianism to Chinese Clientelism; indigenous resistance to development and integration; the deepening of the Central American crisis; new technologies and patterns in drug trafficking; emerging Asia–Latin America criminal flows; and the competing concepts of regional integration, all themes that will play out throughout Latin America. The article then lists several issues that could change the direction in which the region is heading, including a catastrophic natural disaster, a significant external economic shock, and a terrorist attack or sustained U.S. military action in the region. Regarding emerging important actors, over the next five years several states will increase their economic and political ties to Latin America, including China, India, Russia, and Iran, while within the region Brazil will assume a central role. Latin American militaries will also continue to play an important role in combating transnational organized crime and internal security issues, and responding to natural disasters. The defense and security environment in Latin America is undergoing a significant transition. This article analyzes some of the current trends and how they might affect the region over the next five years, with a focus on four questions: • What will be the major themes/trends in the region in 2012 and through 2017? • What major issues/events could change the direction in which the region is heading? • Who will be the major actors in the region over the next five years? • What role will the military play in the region over the next five years? Because the forecast period is fairly close in, most of the trends that will impact the region during this time have their roots in dynamics that are playing out at the present time. Regional Insights is a publication of the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies. The views represented are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. Copies of CHDS publications can be obtained on the CHDS website at http://www.ndu.edu/chds. REGIONAL INSIGHTS Major Themes and Trends through 2017 goods and military vehicles, and more sales of end items including radars, armored vehicles, trainer and transport At the macro level, the next five years in Latin America aircraft, helicopters, and logistics vehicles, leveraging the are likely to be dominated by four interrelated influences: track record of its goods in the ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance China, organized crime, indigenous peoples, and the for the Americas) countries. physical and political integration of the region. The interaction of these with other dynamics of the region is Reaction to the Growing Chinese Physical Presence. likely to give rise to at least the following nine themes: The growing Chinese footprint in Latin America, including the increasing physical presence of Chinese companies Rise of an Asia-oriented Political Economy in South and workers, will increasingly impact the political dynamics America. Even more than before, South America’s trade of the region. Powerful and well-positioned interests in relationship with Asia will expand and deepen, along countries such as Brazil and Argentina will lobby for more with Chinese investments in the petroleum, mining, tariffs and barriers to the entry of Chinese goods, as well as and agricultural sectors, and select investments in restrictions on the ability of Chinese investors to purchase manufacturing, retail, and services. land and other assets. The PRC will increasingly become a dominant external Chinese projects are likely to face particular resistance from actor, at times receiving more attention from the region a combination of environmentalist and indigenous groups, than Europe and the United States, in defiance of the actual such as the current protests against the Sinohydro dam trade numbers. Pacific-facing countries such as Chile, Peru, project in Chone, Ecuador, complaints against Shougang Ecuador, and even Colombia will each continue to position and Shin Pe resources mining operations in Peru, or the themselves as gateways between Asia and Latin America, Rio Negro soy project in Argentina. and will dedicate significant time to their individual China strategies, their collective position through emerging blocs The expanding volume of Chinese projects and workers is such as the Pacific Alliance, and their membership in the likely to give rise to an growing number of violent incidents, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). such as the overrunning of the Andes-operated oilfield in Tarapoa, Ecuador, in November 2006, violent blockades In the Caribbean, China will have a particularly strong and against Petroriental in Orellana, Ecuador, in 2007, and the unique footprint, with thousands of Chinese construction kidnapping of a petroleum crew from Great Wall Drilling workers laboring on the region’s infrastructure and resort Company in Caquetá, Colombia, in June 2011. Such projects, including the Baha Mar gambling resort in the occurrences will require increasing coordination efforts Bahamas, Cable Bay in the Dominican Republic, and the between the Chinese government, its companies, and Latin Jamaica Development Infrastructure Program. These American governments and public security forces. workers are likely to be complemented by visits from thousands of Chinese tourists. Moreover, if the informal Transformation of Bolivarianism to Chinese truce between China and Taiwan breaks down after the Clientelism. In the ALBA countries, deepening recent Taiwanese elections, the Caribbean will receive dependence on loans and investments from the PRC will even more investment and diplomatic attention from the have a particularly striking impact in the coming years, PRC as it tries to change the diplomatic position of the transforming the Bolivarian movement into a species of six Caribbean states that continue to recognize Taiwan clientelism to the Chinese. In Venezuela, Hugo Chávez will diplomatically. either maintain sufficient health to win the 2012 elections, or pass the mantle to Diosdado Cabello, maintaining the Expanding Chinese Defense Engagement with beneficiaries of Chavismo in power. In either event, the Latin America. The PRC will also expand its defense PRC is likely to take on an increasing role in evaluating and relationships with the region, with increasing officer supervising projects paid for by Chinese loans, extracting, exchanges, more visits by Chinese hospital ships such as in turn, special consideration for Chinese companies, the 2011 visit by the Peace Ark to the Caribbean, more and, behind the scenes, a level of moderation toward bilateral humanitarian exercises such as Angel de Paz with Venezuelan neighbors where the more virulent strains of Peru in November 2010, and perhaps bilateral military Venezuelan radicalism could threaten Chinese interests. humanitarian assistance following the next major disaster in the region. Expanding PRC military engagement with the In Ecuador, although President Correa has publicly region will also likely include larger donations of non-lethal complained about the conditions under which Chinese 2 REGIONAL INSIGHTS credit is offered, his government will probably step up its making previously isolated parts of the continent much borrowing from Chinese banks beyond the $7.3 billion more accessible to a range of outsiders. Moreover, as that it has already received in the past two years. the January 2012 wildfires linked to protests by Mapuche Indians in Chile and unrest in the Caribbean coast of As they descend into dependence on the PRC, the ALBA Nicaragua further show, such dynamics will not necessarily states nonetheless remain wildcards in their potential be limited to the Andean region. to generate crises in the region. The potential death of Chávez in Venezuela could unleash a fluid situation, with In Ecuador, the opening of the Yasuni national park for Diosdado Cabello and other Chavistas vying to capture the drilling in 2013 and new open pit mining operations in state and maintain Chavismo, while the opposition’s search Zamora Chinchipe by the Chinese firm Tongling has the for issues leads them to publicly question the legitimacy potential to produce problems with indigenous peoples. In of loan obligations to the Chinese incurred by the Chávez Peru, problems are likely to escalate in at least one of the regime. In such circumstances, the PRC could effectively five major Chinese mining projects, although difficulties become the kingmaker if it negotiates with the opposition to date in Toromocho and Rio Blanco have not yet caused to safeguard its investments in the country. Bolivia, with problems on the scale seen in Bagua in 2009 or Cajamarca the ouster of the last of the Media Luna opposition currently. In Bolivia, the showdown between indigenous governors (Reuben Costas of Santa Cruz), appears to be groups and the Morales government over a highway consolidating itself as a leftist authoritarian

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