PoS(sps5)007

http://pos.sissa.it s in science in the esses, comparing the esses, comparing ries resulting in Nobel Nobel in ries resulting which makes our field so which makes e. I will show how the ce' and 'Big Science' as part of his as part of his Science' and 'Big ce' all other areas of science, so growth inall other areas of science, so growth ed the discovery proces t and explanation. Finally I comment on t and explanation. Finally I comment is of discoveries in radio astronomy shows is of discoveries in radio astronomy see this in the discove look at how science progr culture in Physics and in Astronomy. culture in Physics and in Astronomy. l stream of new discoveries l stream eative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike Licence. Licence. Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike eative

exponential growth in scienc

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Accelerating the Rate of Astronomical Discovery - sps5 sps5 - Discovery of Astronomical Accelerating the Rate Brazil de Janeiro, Rio August 11–14 2009

1960s and he introduced the terms 'Little Scien the terms 'Little 1960s and he introduced of of the role discussion Science' 'Little trend from this same has followed facilities astronomical of development can We matures. as a field Science' to 'Big Abstract as in Technology leads discovery in astronomy, technology leads to the continua a digression to effect. I include the same R D Ekers CSIRO-ATNF Australia Sydney, NSW, [email protected] E-mail: Big and Small Big and Small had analys Price fascinating. Derek de Solla A more detailed analys Prizes in astronomy. measuremen roles of prediction, serendipity, Science' the differences between the 'Big

PoS(sps5)007 Ekers Ekers an increase in energy (2 years) and internet hosts is that any which has not maintained field His analysis showed that the normal also most most advancesscientific technical follow of Singapore) in 1948 and it was there that it and in 1948 Singapore) of g times are: power consumption (10 years), (10 times are: power consumption g rrent active research areas are all still in an th up to a ceiling when a new technology was th echnology appears, and usually within 5 years and usuallyyears within 5 appears, echnology ndefinitely and when it reaches ndefinitely and when a ceiling de d by Riesselmann Large Hadron to include the of the complete set Philosophical Transactions Transactions of the complete set Philosophical technology which results in a new period of period of which results in a new technology th, originally presented byhas Fermi in 1954, discoveries are often built bydiscoveries are often observer. the He metrics) and reachedmetrics) most the conclusion that rsities founded in Europe. Some more recent more Some Europe. in rsities founded itself an exponential with

intain the exponential the continual introduction the continual introduction intain the exponential owth of science [2]. The idea occurred to him The idea occurred to owth of science [2]. nd Blewett [5]. Starting in 1930, each particle es of exponential growth included the rate of rate of the included growth es of exponential 2 1960 de Solla Price [2] Price 1960 de Solla applied quantitative [2] e underlying growth rates such as population (50 such as population rates growth e underlying refining existing technology plateaus out. plateaus out. technology refining existing particle accelerator beam energy

in 60 years. 60 This has been recently in update 1. Progress in this area of development becomes1. Progress in this area of development chaotic, 2. The area of research dies out, change in 3. There is a reorganization or this A rather simplified conclusion to draw from Such exponential growth cannot continue i cannot growth Such exponential which example illustrates this veryA famous is the rate of increase of well operating It had already that been well established Harwit [1] showed that most important discoveries in astronomy result from technical 10 Solla Price [4] noted three possible consequences: exponential growth and research flourishes. years),years). GNP (20 growth has now died out, so cu an exponential to ma exponential growth phase. Furthermore, since just is required of new technology Curve Livingstone 1.1 energyparticle accelerators in by Livingston a he formulated his theory on the exponential gr exponential on the his theory he formulated in stacks when he noticed the exponential growth while Raffles his home College he had in which 1850, Society 1665 and between of the Royal Historical exampl [3]. built had its library of unive elements and the number discovery of year).(1 These are all faster than th much accelerator technology provided exponential grow introduced. The envelope of the set of curves is of 10 measurement to the progress of science (sciento scientific advances follow laboratory experiments. had worked as a teacher Derek de Solla Price of growth of science is exponential. of mode applied mathematics at Raffles (University College doublin their and growth exponential of examples overseas telephone calls (5 years), of the technical capability. Instruments used for also noted that new astronomical phenomena are more frequently found byresearchers trained outside astronomy. in other areas of science. In innovation innovation. The discoveries peak soon The after new t innovation. 1. Exponential Growth in Science Growth 1. Exponential Big and Small and Big Collider [6]. of exponential grow Collider [6]. This example Curve'. the 'Livingstone known as become PoS(sps5)007

Ekers Ekers crease in sensitivity : Radio Telescope Sensitivity vs. time. 1-2 years1-2 Figure 1, later refined[7], to in this case we can see particular radio transistor amplifiers and their large scale and their large scale transistor amplifiers e out. On the other hand, if we can e out. On the shift to for radio astronomy since the discovery of th has been maintained for the last 40 years years the last 40 for has been maintained th a ceiling discoveries will the rates of new en exponential with an in new technologies being introduced e.g., the new technologies being introduced e.g., Figure 2 Pointsrelative continuum are the sensitivity when thewere built, telescopes upgrades.or after major VLA*EVLA upgrade. is the proposed SKA is the sensitivity for a telescope which has not yet been built.

new technology to continue the exponential the exponential new technologyto continue 3

: Microprocessor performance, performance, : Microprocessor since 1940, doubling every years. three doubling Also since 1940, 5 If the improvement in sensitivity in has reached If the improvement Figure 2 plots the Figure 2 plots sensitivity of telescopes used To this we can add the now famous To this we can add the now famous 'Moore's Law' devices (more forprecisely computing original Moore’s Law plot [7] [7] plot Law Moore’s original Figure 1 improvement? In radioastronomy the combination of the combination In radioastronomy improvement? telescope technologies reaching ceilings and 1980s. dishes in the single dishes to arrays huge of smaller transition from Growth? Exponential 1.4 How to Maintain uninteresting and di decline and the field will become new technology or find new ways to organize our resources the exponential increase in Do we have such sensitivity can continue.

extra-terrestrial radio emission in 1940. It has be extra-terrestrial radio emission in 1940. 1.3 Radio telescopes of 10 1.2 Moore's Law 1.2 Moore's the transistor that noted Intel) (co-founder of Moore Gordon 1965 In a chip). for transistors on density roughly every of semiconductor chips doubled grow and this exponential 18 months every doubling [8]. Big and Small and Big PoS(sps5)007 Ekers Ekers benchmarked against base and provide cross users who can provide valuable feed- research on a scale which no individual research on a scale which no individual le research on a scale which no single hnology used will be easing big science component, this doesn't this doesn't easing big science component, the big national and international facilities the big ce limitation ceiling. He ce limitation the termscoined of international facilities we have important titute to National Facility and, finally, to titute to National Facilityand, finally, itely without hitting the ceiling on cost or on cost or hitting the ceiling itely without ys not previously conceivable. Finally,ys previously not conceivable. the l facilities is an excellent way for all of us to In most nations government funding will be nations government In most from different backgroundswill also interact n access facilities to showcase technology in the previous section, sometimesin the previous technical duplicated inexpensively provides one of the inexpensively duplicated provides nd as discussed in the following sections, it is

oposed SKA will also be needed to avoid the the also be needed to avoid oposed SKA will ng processes suchng processes beam adaptive as multiple tworking can now provide access to the facility broaden our knowledge 4 lth creation through industry involvement. Large involvement. industry lth creation through Science: Big Science to can afford. Institutional Facilities areInstitutional built to enable on a scale which no single institute National Facilities are built to enable research can afford. International Facilities are built to enab nation can afford. Industries or nations can use the ope Industries or means the tec International involvement international standards end Astronomers are seen as sophisticated back and incentives for the technology development development technology back and incentives for the

Little • • • • • • Exponential growth cannot continue indefin growth Exponential

In addition to the direct scientific advantages In addition to the obvious resource advantage, the obvious to In addition While the progression clearly an incr While the progression involves resource ceiling. 2. From 2. From keys for change. The other key technology is the computing capacity to apply digital capacity computing apply digital is the to key The other technology keys for change. realizi thereby atprocessing high bandwidth interferenceformation and active rejection in wa as the pr to international facilities such move Big and Small and Big systems be which can into complex integration available resources As discussed to continue. role played to the rescue but de Solla Price comes by important also recognized the innovation Individual Researcher to Ins the transition from International Facility, step removing each a resour to describescience' the two extremes. science' and 'big 'little fertilisation between diverse communities. Ne together. learn to play for a wide community users and these users of of internationawith each other. The development important that it doesn't disappear. Provided that it doesn't activeimportant a field there will beremains a rich diversity of the scale of the facilities. Big Science 2.1 The global linkages have other advantages. mean the small science role has to disappear, a astronomy facilities can achieve this in a number of ways: number a facilities can achieve this in astronomy indirect advantages from the global collaboration. indirect advantages from wea to directly or indirectly, linked, either PoS(sps5)007 Ekers Ekers

telescopes to do small telescopes to do small een organisations in a non-competitive in a non-competitive een organisations facilities are expensive so they need to be facilities need to be so they are expensive and even predicted eclipses While this[3]. lly we can still use big echanism. A centuryechanism. of a strange ago, pieces ians of science was an concluded that this structures and funding support to the maintain will create more opportunities andeducational aller, specialized instruments are more which looking into de Solla Price's scientometricslooking into I g facilities are used by huge teams focussed on s an extraordinary technology development for development s an extraordinary technology overed from an ancient shipwreck on the island acility designers. Big projects necessarilyBig projects have acility designers. membership in a big team will be as rewarding in a big team membership

se common-user facilities and small groupsse common-user can facilities and small as triggered a vigorous ongoing debate on this debate on this as triggered a vigorous ongoing lated and illustrated astronomical information, information, lated and illustrated astronomical agile; small teams can move fast and adapt to teams fast and adapt small can agile; move eative entrepreneurship, innovative ideas and eative entrepreneurship, innovative r a millennium, a sobering reminder that our r a a sobering reminder millennium, 5 projects and cannot support a large community of nguishing characteristics of the astronomy culture culture of the astronomy characteristics nguishing exponential growth is not guaranteed. growth is not exponential team environment can be very environment satisfying. team ill stimulate innovation innovation ill stimulate environment environment Industry betw links will be developed w transfer Technology

• •

Horace Walpole coined the word serendipity to describe the discoverya book or of Multiple small teams or individualsu can Multiple small teams However it is not all good news - big science all good However it is not Compromise andis possible we plan if carefu information that you that were not seeking. While information 3.1 Antikythera Machine 3. Evidence for the Impact of Instrumental Development on Advances in on Development of Instrumental the Impact 3. Evidence for Astronomy discovered his early research on the Antikythera M mechanism with bronze gears and dials were rec of Greece. off the coast Histor of Antikythera calcu in 80 B.C, instrument that, originating particularly phases of the Moon, planetary motions be classified as big science it wa might not quite fo This technologythe time. disappeared backwards and that can also go technology Big and Small and Big cost effective will onlycost effective will useful for special be users. In comparison, small projects can be projects changing circumstances. Multiple small large bureaucracies which cr tend to crush is also less likely It that individuals. innovative common-user facilities to justify their cost. Sm their cost. facilities to justify common-user next generation of big f the will be essential for the for others although to all individuals, 2.2 The Continuing Case for Small Science 2.2 The Continuing 2.3 Small Science on Big Telescopes build instruments and develop and specialised softwarebuild instruments packages processing techniquesand big for requires appropriate management This facilities. a small number of problems. Simon a small numberWhite h of problems. Simon topic [6]. groups. small science. In fact this is one of the disti science. In fact this is one of the compared to the particle physics culture where bi PoS(sps5)007

Ekers Ekers

ich have resulted in Nobel prizes. In resulted in Nobel ich have Victor Franz Hess (shared) Victor Franz Hess Chandrasekhar Subrahmanyan Alfred Fowler William Sir Martin Ryle Sir Martin Antony Hewish Russell A. Hulse, Joseph H. Taylor, Jr. Davis, Jr., Masatoshi Raymond Koshiba Riccardo Giacconi John C. Mather, George F. Smoot Arno A. Penzias, Robert W. Wilson with an indicationof theof relative the scale

t the and a subjective indication discovery date

h group involved. It is quite clear from Figure 3 It is quite clear from h group involved.

6

ng discoveries increases in importance with time. in importance ng discoveries increases

: Nobel Prizes for astronomy astronomy : Nobel Prizes for

Nobel Prizes vs.date astronomy in discovery of 1974-78 Gravitational Radiation Neutrinos 1974-78 Gravitational X-rays 1987 Cosmic 1962,70 Cosmic 1989 CMB 1960 Aperture Synthesis Evolution 1960 Aperture Elements 1967 Pulsars 1965 CMB 1931 Stellar 1950 Chemical 1912 Cosmic Rays 1912 Cosmic Table1 Table 1 lists the 10 astronomical discoveries wh discoveries lists the 10 astronomical Table 1

experiment

1993 2002 2002 2006 Figure 3 I have plotted these discoveries agains discoveries these Figure 3 I have plotted Science facilities in maki that the role of Big 1974 1974 1978 1983 1983 Prize Experiment Subject Experiment Prize 1936 Laureates of the relative scale instrument of the or researc Big and Small and Big Prize3.2 Nobel Discoveries 3: Figure PoS(sps5)007 Ekers Ekers llent examples of discoveries llent examples made by Hess, of the Vienna University, flew in a flew in a the Vienna University, Hess, of d in the award of the 1978 Nobel Prize d in the award of the 1978 to d to John Mather for the spectrum and d to John Mather for the spectrum to ace telescope built by a large team ace telescope had and built by a large team made with special purpose instruments with since then but is now very since then but is much alive with and Bell in 1968 was made with a modest being built in Utah to search for the highestUtah to search for the in being built e Big Bang radiation with the Bell Telephone Bell Telephone e Big Bang radiation with the from outside our atmosphere. In 1936, Hess Hess In 1936, atmosphere. from outside our included a tabulation of the key discoveries in included a tabulation of the key It was clearly a small science experiment. The about 16,000 ft. He discovered evidence of a 16,000 ft. about It is of discoveriesclear that the number made the binary pulsar by1974 binary pulsar Hulse and Taylor in the

The initial discovery was made by a small team acilities,in Auger Observatory the Pierre built 1978 required the Arecibo telescope which is required the 1978 7 ope at the Bell Telephone Laboratory. The follow- largest aperture telescope ever built. largest aperture telescope ever built. inception of a new branch of science. of a new inception as declined Figure with time. 4 (b) shows that serendipitous

The beginning of radio astronomy provides exce provides of radio astronomy The beginning The initial discovery of pulsars by Hewish Cosmic rayCosmic research Victor began in 1912 when As discussed by Kellermann et al [11], the discoveryof the CMB was a serendipitous exploring the unknown [11]. Wilkinson et al [12] [11]. unknown exploring the onthose facilities. made the larger general user with special purpose instruments h discoveries are prevalentmore at the radio astronomy since the beginning of the field in Figure 4 beginning of since the 1933 to 2000. radio astronomy (a) plots these the discoveries comparing discoveries against time, and its use to detect gravitational radiation in radiation detect gravitational and its use to operated as a US national facility and is the clearly era. 'Big Science' entered the Radiation Pulsars and Gravitational 3.5 (institute scale)discoveryof but the telescope up observation was made with a NASA funded sp 4. Discoveries in Radio Astronomy Astronomy 4. Discoveries in Radio George Smoot for the anisotropy of the CMB. for the anisotropyGeorge Smoot of the but veryusing a state-of-the-art modest telesc very penetrating radiation (cosmic rays) coming (cosmic very penetrating radiation was awarded the Nobel Prize for this discovery. with sporadic bursts of activity field has prospered counterpart hemisphere northern Argentina and its discovery of th 1965 Penzias and Wilson for their the microwave COBE satellite measured 1989 the properties of In horn. Laboratory Nobel Prize 2006 and the was background awarde balloon with his electroscope to an altitude of his balloon with the creation science f of the international big energy rays.. cosmic the Cosmic3.4 Discovery of CMB Microwave Background, which resulte a predicted observation of phenomenon Big and Small and Big of Cosmic Discovery Rays 3.3 PoS(sps5)007

Ekers Ekers understanding of the r Hulst in 1944 and detected by Ewen & Ewen & and detected by r Hulst in 1944 es are mostly In used as analytic tools. we design to maintain the flow of new the we design to maintain ither confirmed by an observation or are ither confirmed a known class of object works. For these ticipated) are found. This requires new are found. This requires new ticipated) at the criteria used to design new telescopes, at the criteria used to design new telescopes, This requires stable observational tools and ng prediction. There are also serendipitous There are also prediction. ng still be made but good still be made eal events from instrumental errors which are diation predicted by Einstein was observed by mena. Can we optimise our telescopes to do Can we optimise mena.

on of an old one. Sometimes predictions are Sometimes on of an old one. they had discovered in 1974 and for which they w and expanded understanding. These are oftenw and expanded understanding. 8 technology developments which open up other technology developments which open up other : KeyDiscoveries in Radio Astronomy from [12] (a) Type of instrument, of instrument, (a) Type v Serendipity Predicted (b)

Figure 4 The preceding examples focus on the discoveryThe preceding examples of new phenomenaastronomical but most

Measurements are made to way understand the There are predicted new phenomena which are e There are predicted new phenomena New phenomena (either predicted, or unan Hydrogen was predictedvan de Line The 21cm by research the analysis involves of known pheno both? We have a similar We have both? dilemma when we look or do do we base designs on the known phenomena discoveries? [11]. Known Phenomena Analysis of 5.1 5. The Analysis vs. Discovery dilemma The 5. Big and Small and Big observational approaches, and expanded parameter space. observational approaches, and expanded parameter Prediction or Serendipity? 5.2.1 still confirm an existi observed accidentally but instrument is to separate important unexpected r cause of an unusual result. common the most 5.2 Discovery of New Phenomena discoveries of the unexpected which lead to ne the trigger for a new theory, or the resurrecti triggers for other discoveries or lead to observational opportunities. The gravitational ra Purcell at Harvard in 1951. Hulse and Taylor using a binary pulsar which were awarded a Nobel prize in 1993. the research involves explaining and measuring. the research and involves explaining user facilitisteps. Common progresses by incremental maythis process discoveries of the unexpected PoS(sps5)007 Ekers Ekers tions and is making om inom a theory be only will few a there equently they are less In this case valuable. equently they es will decrease and the field will die. Big ilities as research areas become more mature foster networking and cross fertilization, but foster networking and cross observational constraint will be important, e.g. will be important, observational constraint differences especially as big physics projects acted from discussionacted from at the "Great Surveys"

y small number of observa y small number a work environment which increases the chance a work environment courage individual freedom to explore, provide to explore, provide freedom individual courage 9 void the over protection of information, over void the over protection of information, bate around the big science physics culture and bate around the big science whether it guide the interpretation. level of bureaucracy. Small science will still prosper in the big science will still prosper in the level of bureaucracy. Small

: Physics and Astronomy Culture: Physics and Astronomy There is an increasing need for big science fac

We have a vigorous ongoing de We have a vigorous ongoing you that noted 1950s (& New Mexico Tech) in the General Electric, Irving Langmuir, When there are many degrees of freedom in a complex phenomenon there are many phenomenon there are in a complex many of freedom are degrees many When there When there When there are only degrees a few of freed

Table 2

this is offset bythis is offset the increased meeting in Santa Fe in 2008, summarises of the differences. some big science facilities new discoveri the and without facilities add international extra value because they will have a good or a bad influence on the astronomy culture [9]. culture [9]. astronomy Leaving aside the question of influence on the will have a good or a bad the to recognise what is best, it is important 2, extr increasingly Table involve astronomy. the observations will generally the observations will Scientific Research 5.3 Managing plan plan to make discoveries but you can can't youthat need to en He argued of discovery. Large teams structures Formal lists pre-agreed author Formal credited All participants 7. Conclusions PI first author experimentalists for credit Lack of structures Informal teams Individuals or small Physics Astronomy Observatories Experiments Few big questions Diverse range of studies testable predictions about the CMB structure. about the testable predictions solutions so that are possible, predictions many cons contacts outside the field. encourage and for discussion in an open environment opportunities He also arguedis necessary to a that it management, and lack of time to pursue other ideas. Astronomy Physics vs. 6. Big Science Culture: The CMB theory is constrained by a relativel Big and Small and Big v Explaining Predicting 5.2.2 solutions. Predictions are possible and anythen solutions. Predictions PoS(sps5)007 , Ekers Ekers The explorationof , Reports on. , Reports , Basic Books Inc., New Inc., New , Basic Books The exploration of the unknown the of exploration The , 38, no 8, April Electronics, Vol. Mechanism, a Calendar Computer Calendar a Mechanism, , Columbia University, Columbia Press, 1986. , McGraw, Hill Book 1962. Co., , Symmetry,, 6, Vol. p30, October2009. ng new areas of parameter space and providing space and providing of parameter ng new areas

portant that little science be maintained, and not little science be portant that not maintained, and overy – SPS5, IAU GA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil, Janeiro, de GA, Rio – SPS5, IAU overy , Columbia University Press 1963. , Columbia 10 onto integrated circuit integrated onto , IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 28, no. 3, no. 28, Vol. of Computing, History of the Annals , IEEE Ekers, J. Lazio, P. Wilkinson, Lazio, P. Wilkinson, Ekers, J. Particle Accelerators Particle the big science era. the big science Gears from the Greeks: the Antikythera the Greeks: the from Gears Little science, big science - andbigLittle science, beyond science - Little science, bigLittle science, science , Arrow Books Ltd., 2008. Ltd., Books , Arrow Deconstruction: Livingstone Plot , Trans. Am. Phil., Trans. Soc.,partAm. 7,64, 1974. Vol. FundamentalistDark physics: Energy why is bad for astronomy Decoding the Heavens: A 2,000-Year-Old Computer--and the Century-Long Search to to Search Century-Long the Computer--and 2,000-Year-Old A Heavens: the Decoding New Astronomy Reviews, Vol. 48, Issue 11-12, p. 1551-1563, 2004. Cramming more components Establishing Moore's Law Moore's Establishing Cosmic Discovery - The Search, Scope & Heritage of of Astronomy Heritage & Scope - Search, The Discovery Cosmic

P.N Wilkinson, K.I. Kellermann, R.D. Ekers, J.M. Cordes, T. Joseph W. Lazio, W. T. Joseph Cordes, J.M. Ekers, R.D. Kellermann, K.I. Wilkinson, P.N unknown, the K.I. Kellermann, J.M. Cordes, R.D. R.D. Cordes, J.M. Kellermann, K.I. August 11-14,2009. in Accelerating the Rate of Astronomical Disc Astronomical of the Rate in Accelerating D. J. dePrice, SollaD. J. from ca. 80 80 BC ca. from Progress in Physics, Vol. 70, pp 883-897, 2007. 2007. 883-897, pp 70, Vol. Physics, in Progress S.D.M. White, pp. 62-75, July-Sept. 2006. 2006. July-Sept. 62-75, pp. E. Mollick, G.E. Moore, Moore, G.E. 19, 1965. K. Riesselmann, K. Riesselmann, M.S. Livingston and J.P. Blewett, Jo Marchant, Jo Marchant, Discover Its Secrets Its Discover D. J. dePrice, SollaD. J. D. J. dePrice, SollaD. J. York 1981. M Harwit,

[9] [8] [7] [6] [5] [3] [4] [2] [1] [12] [11] [10] References References Big and Small and Big playscience openi and will still era a critical role broader educational opportunities. It is also im opportunities. broader educational bydisplaced in big science,