Architects of a Safer World

ARCHITECTS OF A SAFER WORLD 2013–2014 ANNUAL REPORT CONTENTS 1 LETTER FROM OUR CO-CHAIRMEN 6 THE THREAT: COMPLACENCY IS THE ENEMY 8 SECURING NUCLEAR MATERIALS 12 THE VISION AND STEPS 20 BUILDING GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE 24 REFRAMING THE DEBATE 28 BOARD, STAFF AND FUNDING Photo credit: Associated Press Associated credit: Photo Months after Ukrainian unrest began, the ongoing conflict threatens security and stability throughout the Euro-Atlantic region. LETTER FROM OUR CO-CHAIRMEN It has been a challenging time for the risk reduction agenda. “NTIHASBEENREALLY We saw renewed global attention and progress on reducing the nuclear threat as a result of the third Nuclear Security Summit in the IMPORTANTTOOUR Netherlands, but we also saw serious setbacks to crucial cooperation WORK.INFACT,IT’SA between the United States, Europe and Russia because of the troubling and dangerous developments in eastern Ukraine. VERYPOWERFUL These developments, however, underscore the importance of our mission EXAMPLEOFTHEWAYS and inspire us to keep working. INWHICHTHOSE Fifty-three world leaders attended the March 2014 summit in the WHOGENERATEIDEAS Netherlands. Together, they recognized the shared responsibility of the CANHAVEAREAL nuclear security mission and called for key elements of a global nuclear materials security system that would hold all states accountable to IMPACTONPOLICY.” international standards and best practices. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, This outcome is especially positive from our perspective. We have White House National Security worked since 2012 to promote a global system to secure all materials, Council Official to employ international standards and best practices, to give states the capacity to assess nuclear security globally and hold each other accountable, and to develop consensus among world leaders on how the system would work. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) worked closely with the Dutch hosts, along with other governments, to advance this 1 Forty bishops, policy specialists, Catholic scholars and students explored policy and moral challenges in moving toward a world without nuclear weapons at a colloquium supported by NTI. agenda in the build-up to the 2014 summit. We are pleased that there is broader understanding of the need for a global system, and the concept now has the momentum to build wider support and implementation by the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit in the United States. Also positive from our perspective, many countries at the Netherlands Summit used the NTI Nuclear Materials Security Index to mark their progress and make new security commitments. Released in January 2014, the second edition of the NTI Index offers a public assessment 2 of nuclear materials security conditions in 176 countries. Our top recommendation—the need for a global system—was supported by strong editorials in both The New York Times and The Washington Post. “UKRAINEMUSTNOT CRISIS IN UKRAINE BECOMEANEWBERLIN In early 2014, Russia took over Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. In WALLINEUROPE.” addition to creating urgent dangers, the crisis further frayed relations between Russia and the West and undermined cooperation on our nuclear agenda. Statement from Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov, Sam Nunn and Adam Daniel Rotfeld These destabilizing events underscored the need for a new approach to Euro-Atlantic security, which was the subject of NTI’s 2013 report, Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region by NTI board members Des Browne, Igor Ivanov and Sam Nunn, along with former German Deputy Foreign Minister Wolfgang Ischinger. Briefed to top Russian, European and U.S. leaders, the report takes up the pivotal question of the post–Cold War era: How can Russia, the United States and Europe overcome the historical animosities of the Cold War and move decisively toward a new security strategy for the 21st century? Though written before Ukraine erupted, the report includes medium- and long-term approaches that we believe can contribute to solutions for the region. The 2014 NTI Nuclear Materials Security Index called for global action to secure dangerous materials from terrorists. CREATING NEW MOMENTUM At a time when governments are increasingly stuck in status quo policies, NTI has fostered action by states and organizations to reduce nuclear dangers. For example, in November 2013, NTI organized a meeting in Singapore with more than 30 high-profile global leaders from five continents to outline steps to develop consensus on “ POLAND HAS TAKEN responding to nuclear dangers. The meeting of members from four regional leadership networks supported by our Nuclear Security Project CONCRETE STEPS helped foster a sense of urgency to address nuclear issues. TO MINIMIZE THE We are heartened by the energy behind the series of global conferences THREAT OF NUCLEAR on the humanitarian consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. As Dr. TERRORISM AND TO Patricia Lewis of Chatham House has written, “The fact that it has taken decades to discuss the problems [nuclear weapons] create through a STRENGTHEN THE CHAIN humanitarian framework demonstrates how adept our societies are at OF NUCLEAR SECURITY, forgetting, disguising, and denying the overwhelming and the terrify- ing.” NTI’s ongoing support for the faith community’s important voice on WHICH IS ONLY these issues dovetails with these current moral and ethical discussions. AS STRONG AS ITS ACHIEVING GOALS IN BIOSECURITY WEAKEST LINK. THANKS NTI realized one of our priority goals to address the biological threat— TO THIS, POLAND establishing a global disease surveillance network to boost the world’s RANKED SIXTH IN ability for rapid detection and response to infectious disease outbreaks, whether natural or intentional. In January 2013, the new network, called THE NUCLEAR THREAT CORDS (Connecting Organizations for Disease Surveillance), was INITIATIVE INDEX.” launched as an independent organization, with significant support from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw the Skoll Global Threats Fund. Today, CORDS is helping its member Sikorski at the Nuclear Security Summit networks prepare for and manage the Ebola threat in Africa and throughout the world. 3 4 Photo credit: University of Indianapolis “ YOU COULD SENSE A HIGHER PURPOSE AND A SERIOUSNESS OF PURPOSE.” —Steve Inskeep, National Public Radio, moderating a panel celebrating the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program Left:At the University of Indianapolis, NPR’s Steve Inskeep interviewed Sam Nunn and NTI Board Member Richard Lugar on diplomacy in a dangerous world. Right:NTI Co-Chairmen Sam Nunn and Ted Turner lead an April 2014 board meeting as board member Michael Douglas looks on. PLANNING FOR OUR FUTURE In March of 2014, NTI board member and former UK Defense Minister Des Browne agreed to serve as NTI vice chairman. Des, together with NTI Chief Executive Officer Sam Nunn and Joan Rohlfing, NTI’s president, will help guide NTI’s long-term strategic direction and build NTI’s institutional sustainability. The road we are on—to reverse reliance on nuclear weapons globally as a vital contribution to preventing their proliferation into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately ending them as a threat to the world —is sometimes filled with moments of exhilaration and at other times, discouragement. Whether the day’s news is bright or dark, we are dedicated to reducing global threats and risks. We are encouraged by the positive and powerful impact of NTI and our tangible achievements. We owe much to our supporters, who have put their faith in us. We want to thank all of our funders, in particular our longstanding supporters Warren Buffett, Carnegie Corporation of New York, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Peter G. Peterson Foundation and George Russell. We also appreciate the thousands of individuals globally who support us with their words of encouragement and their contributions. We are honored and inspired to be your partners in building a safer world. Des Browne, former UK defense minister, became NTI vice chairman in March 2014. Sam Nunn Ted Turner 5 NUCLEAR TERRORISM: INTEREST AND ACCESS Al Qaeda has repeatedly tried to purchase nuclear material or weapons. U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel called the Al-Qaeda inspired group Islamic State, also known as ISIS and ISIL, “as sophisticated and well-funded as any organization we’ve seen.” ( 2,000 ) metric tons of weapons-usable nuclear materials are stored at hundreds of sites around the world— THE THREAT: some poorly guarded and vulnerable. COMPLACENCY MORE COUNTRIES IS THE ENEMY SEEK WEAPONS ( 9 ) IT IS A PARADOX OF THE POST–COLD WAR countries have WORLD THAT A MASSIVE NUCLEAR (16 ,300 ) 6 nuclear weapons, including North Korea. EXCHANGE IS LESS LIKELY, BUT A NUCLEAR Iran may be next. ATTACK IS MORE LIKELY. MANY SCENARIOS COULD LEAD TO A CATASTROPHIC EXPLOSION. ACCIDENTAL, MISTAKEN OR UNAUTHORIZED LAUNCH The United States and Russia keep (1 ,800 ) nuclear weapons on “hair trigger” alert, ready for immediate launch. In a crisis, leaders would have minutes to check facts and decide whether to launch them. Systems are not perfect. People make mistakes. Technology has flaws. Sabotage is possible. This is not theoretical; close calls have been documented. EROSION IN U.S. STEWARDSHIP ( 2012 ) In 2012 an 82-year-old nun and two others broke into the main U.S. storage vault for weapons-usable highly enriched uranium, spending two hours inside before they were caught. ( in 2013 and 2014 ) the Associated Press described a “string of recent training failures, security missteps, leadership lapses, morale problems and stunning CATASTROPHIC breakdowns in discipline” among Air Force nuclear personnel. SCENARIOS CYBER THREAT ( in 2013 ) Air Force Gen. C. Robert Kehler, then-head of America’s nuclear forces, said he was “very concerned with the potential of a cyber-related attack on our nuclear command- and-control system, or on the weapons themselves.” THE INDIA–PAKISTAN NUCLEAR RIVALRY These nuclear–armed nations harbor long-held hostilities, have fought each other in numerous wars and continue to face a bitter territorial dispute.

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