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Democratic aspirations of Africans: What can we learn from it? EDEM E. SELORMEY, AFROBAROMETR April 30, 2019 Where Afrobarometer works

• Round 1, 1999-2001 12 countries • Round 2, 2002-2003 16 countries • Round 3, 2005-2006 18 countries • Round 4, 2008-2009 20 countries • Round 5, 2011-2013 35 countries • Round 6, 2014-2015 36 countries • Round 7, 2016-2018 34 countries

AB now represents the opinions of more than three-fourths of Africans Survey demographics

Gender % Men 50 Women 50 Residence Urban 45 Rural 55 No formal education 20 Primary 27 Secondary 37 Post-secondary 15 Religion Christian 54 Muslim 34 Other 11

3 WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG

The demand and support for democracy in Key demand-side indicators of democracy |34 countries | 2017/2018

100%

80% 78% 74% 72% 68%

60% 54%

42% 40%

20%

0% Reject Reject one- Reject military Prefer Reject all 3 DEMAND presidential party rule rule democracy authoritarian DEMOCRACY dictatorship alternatives (prefer democracy + reject all 3 alternatives) 84% Popular support 82% 81% for democracy 81% 81% | 34 countries 80% 78% | 2016/2018 77% Cote d'Ivoire 77% 76% 75% 75% 73% 72% Cabo Verde 70% 70% Respondents were asked: Which of 69% the following statements is closest 69% to your view? 69% Statement 1: Democracy is AVERAGE 68% preferable to any other kind of Gambia 68% government. 67% Statement 2: In some 67% circumstances, a non-democratic 65% government can be preferable. 63% Statement 3: For someone like me, it 62% doesn’t matter what kind of 62% government we have. 62% São Tomé and Príncipe 61% (% who say democracy is 57% preferable) 54% 52% 47% 46% 43% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG

Support for democratic institutions and processes in Africa Gambia 88% 11% Sierra Leone 87% 11% Côte d'Ivoire 84% 14% Liberia 84% 16% Uganda 83% 15% Popular support Benin 83% 17% Zambia 82% 16% Mali 81% 18% for elections Ghana 81% 16% Guinea 80% 19% | 34 countries Senegal 80% 18% Tanzania 80% 19% São Tomé and Príncipe 79% 19% | 2016/2018 Sudan 79% 20% Namibia 78% 20% Botswana 78% 20% Zimbabwe 78% 18% Mauritius 77% 18% Kenya 77% 19% Burkina Faso 77% 22% Respondents were asked: Which Madagascar 76% 22% 34-country average 75% 23% of the following statements is Niger 74% 25% closest to your view? Togo 73% 25% Statement 1: We should choose Nigeria 72% 27% Cabo Verde 72% 25% our leaders in this country through Morocco 70% 21% regular, open, and honest Cameroon 70% 24% elections. Gabon 68% 31% Tunisia 64% 32% Statement 2: Since elections Mozambique 61% 33% sometimes produce bad results, South Africa 61% 36% we should adopt other methods Malawi 57% 42% for choosing this country’s leaders. eSwatini 54% 42% Lesotho 48% 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Should choose leaders through elections Should use other methods to choose leaders Gabon 81% 17% Tanzania 76% 22% Côte d'Ivoire 76% 20% Gambia 75% 22% Support for Botswana 75% 22% Uganda 75% 22% multiparty Mauritius 75% 20% Namibia 73% 26% Togo 73% 24% competition Malawi 71% 27% Cabo Verde 71% 24% | 34 countries Burkina Faso 70% 29% Nigeria 69% 30% Ghana 68% 27% | 2016/2018 Benin 67% 32% Guinea 65% 33% Zambia 65% 33% Kenya 64% 31% 34-country average 63% 33% Cameroon 63% 29% Respondents were asked: Which of Sierra Leone 62% 36% the following statements is closest to Zimbabwe 61% 32% your view? South Africa 60% 37% Madagascar 60% 35% Statement 1: Political parties create São Tomé and Príncipe 58% 39% division and confusion; it is therefore Mozambique 58% 33% unnecessary to have many political Liberia 58% 42% parties in [your country]. Mali 57% 40% Niger 57% 42% Statement 2: Many political parties Sudan 52% 43% are needed to make sure that eSwatini 48% 46% Tunisia 40% 55% [citizens of your country] have real Senegal 39% 57% choices in who governs them. Lesotho 36% 62% Morocco 34% 44% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Many political parties needed to give citizens a real choice Political parties create division; don't need many Niger 79% 20% Benin 78% 21% Botswana 78% 20% Gambia 77% 20% Should president Ghana 75% 20% Togo 75% 22% Mauritius 73% 22% be accountable Mali 73% 26% Tanzania 73% 25% to Parliament? Cabo Verde 69% 27% Morocco 69% 17% | 34 countries Guinea 69% 31% Gabon 67% 31% | 2016/2018 Uganda 67% 30% Burkina Faso 66% 33% Senegal 66% 31% Côte d'Ivoire 66% 29% Zambia 64% 33% Malawi 63% 34% Respondents were asked: 34-country average 63% 33% Lesotho 62% 36% Which of the following statements eSwatini 61% 35% is closest to your view? Kenya 60% 31% São Tomé and Príncipe 60% 36% Statement 1: Parliament should Cameroon 60% 32% ensure that the president explains Sierra Leone 60% 38% to it on a regular basis how his Zimbabwe 57% 33% government spends taxpayers’ Namibia 56% 42% South Africa 55% 42% money. Statement 2: The president Sudan 54% 42% should be able to devote his full Nigeria 52% 47% attention to developing the Liberia 51% 49% country rather than wasting time Madagascar 42% 51% Mozambique 40% 49% justifying his actions. Tunisia 34% 61% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% President should be accountable to Parliament President needn't justify his actions Gabon 91% Tanzania 89% Togo 87% Gambia 85% Views on two-term Benin 85% Zambia 84% Guinea 82% limits for president Niger 82% Côte d'Ivoire 81% Mali 78% | 34 countries Nigeria 78% Senegal 77% | 2016/2018 Sudan 77% Sierra Leone 76% Malawi 76% Kenya 75% Liberia 75% eSwatini 75% Respondents were asked: 34-country average 75% Which of the following Zimbabwe 74% Uganda 74% statements is closest to your Tunisia 74% view? Botswana 73% Statement 1: The Constitution Mauritius 72% São Tomé and Príncipe 71% should limit the president to Burkina Faso 70% serving a maximum of two Ghana 70% terms in office. Namibia 68% Madagascar 68% Statement 2: There should be Cameroon 66% no constitutional limit on how Cabo Verde 64% long the president can serve. Morocco 62% South Africa 62% (% who “agree” or “agree very Lesotho 61% strongly” with Statement 1) Mozambique 54% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Support for democratic governance 20 countries 2008-2018 100% Support elections

Support two-term limit on president

Prefer democracy 84% 82% Many political parties are 80% 78% needed

75% 75% President must be 74% 73% 73% accountable to Parliament 70% 69% 69% 69% Should be free to join any political organization 66% 65% 64% 64% 64% Government accountability 63% 62% more important than 60% 61% efficiency 60% 56% 53%

40% 2008/2009 2011/2013 2014/2015 2016/2018 WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG

Inprovements in supply of democratic governance compared to the past Views on supply of democratic goods | 34 countries | 2016/2018

President rarely/never ignores laws and courts 55%

President rarely/never ignores Parliament 58%

Somewhat/completely free to say what one thinks 67%

Last national election was free and fair (completely or with 63% minor problems) Country is a "full democracy" or a democracy with minor 51% problems

LEVEL OF FREEDOM HAS HELD STEADY OR INCREASED:

To say what you think 66%

To join political organizations 75%

For independent groups to function 61%

For opposition parties to function 63%

For media to investigate and criticize 60%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG

Perceived Democratic governance Supply deficits Key supply-side indicators of democracy | 34 countries | 2016/2018

100%

80%

60% 51% 43% 40% 34%

20%

0% Country is full Satisfied/Very satisfied with SUPPLY OF DEMOCRACY democracy/democracy democracy (country is a democracy + with minor problems satisfied with democracy) Respondents were asked: - In your opinion, how much of a democracy is [this country] today? - Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [this country] today? Satisfaction with how democracy is working | by region | 34 countries | 2016/2018

100%

80%

59% 60%

46% 42% 43% 38% 40%

18% 20%

0% East Africa West Africa Southern North Africa Central 34-country Africa Africa average

Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [your country]? (% who say “fairly satisfied” or “very satisfied”) Democratic governance supply deficits cnt.

• Across many indicators, the supply of democratic and accountable governance is declining over time and lagging behind citizen demand.

• Freedom of speech has shrunk (by 9 percentage points between 2008/2009 and 2016/2018 across 20 countries)

• Ordinary Africans decry the failure of their national legislators and local councilors to listen to their constituents’ concerns. Seven in 10 (71%) believe that local councilors “never” or “only sometimes” make an effort to listen.

• Parliamentarians perform even worse – only 16% of their constituents believe they are genuinely listened to.

• Fewer than four in 10 citizens believe they could access information on the budget for basic education or for projects envisaged under local development plans, indicating low levels of transparency in public finance.

• Perception of corruption among government officials is high and increasing. Fully seven out of 10 (71%) think at least some elements of their country’s Presidency is corrupt, and are unimpressed by the state’s efforts to combat corruption. Views on supply of democracy | 20 countries | 2008-2018

100%

80%

57% 58% 60% 56% 52%

52% 49% 40% 45% 47%

20%

0% 2008/2009 2011/2013 2014/2015 2016/2018

Country is a "full democracy" or a democracy with minor problems Fairly/Very satisfied with the way democracy is working Conclusions and Recommendations Sustaining African democratic aspirations

• Citizens across Africa indicate a clear desire for democracy and many of its key institutions and processes, including civil liberties, clean elections, and governmental transparency and accountability.

• The evidence also exposes the failure of African political elites to keep pace with the aspirations of their citizens for democracy and accountable governance.

• To satisfy the quest for , donors must not retreat from the promotion of democracy and good governance, because doing so will be out of sync with what African citizens want and will only strengthen the hands of non-liberal democratic influences

• Encourage improvements in the supply of democratic and accountable governance - in alignment with popular desires, of the , The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, the African Peer Review Mechanism, and the relevant SDGs. ¬ END¬ WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG

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