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The Economy of Catalonia Questions and Answers on the Economic Impact of Independence

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The Economy of Catalonia Questions and Answers on the Economic Impact of Independence The Economy of Catalonia Questions and answers on the economic impact of independence Comissió d’Economia Catalana O. Amat, N. Bosch, A. Castells, X. Cuadras, M. Espasa, R. Fatjó, J. Galí, A. Gasol, F. Granell, M. Guinjoan, À. Hermosilla, O. Martinez, V. Pastor, J. Pedrol, M. Puig, F. Raventós, D. Ros i X. Segura PROFIT editorial The Economy of Catalonia Questions and answers on the economic impact of independence Oriol Amat, Núria Bosch, Antoni Castells, Xavier Cuadras, Marta Espasa, Roger Fatjó, Jordi Galí, Anton Gasol, Francesc Granell, Modest Guinjoan, Àngel Hermosilla, Oriol Martinez, Vicent Pastor, Josep Pedrol, Miquel Puig, Francesc Raventós, David Ros and Xavier Segura Comissió d’Economia Catalana The Economy of Catalonia Questions and answers on the economic impact of independence This is a free copy and may be distributed without restriction. It may also be reproduced provided the source is quoted. © Comissió d’Economia Catalana, Col·legi d’Economistes de Catalunya www.profiteditorial.com Cover Design: XicArt Print Design: eximpre sl Contents Preface to the English Edition. David Ros .................. 7 Preface. Joan B. Casas. (Translated by Jordi Vilanova) .......... 9 Introduction. Oriol Amat and Modest Guinjoan (Translated by Jordi Vilanova) . 11 1. The position of an independent Catalonia in the international context. Oriol Martinez Alòs-Moner and Vicent Pastor (Translated by Mike Holt) ........................... 13 2. Six comments on the economic viability of independence and two preliminary remarks. Antoni Castells (Translated by Miquel Strubell)........................ 31 3. In or out of the European Union . 53 3.1. Catalonia and the European Union. Francesc Granell (Translated by Àngela Pous) ...................... 53 3.2. In or out of the European Union. What we have said about this. Miquel Puig (Translated by Àngela Pous) ...................... 69 5 4. In or out of the euro .............................. 83 4.1. An independent State and the euro. Jordi Galí (Translated by Miquel Strubell) .................... 83 4.2. In or out of the euro: certainties and uncertainties. Miquel Puig (Translated by Miquel Strubell)............ 93 5. The financial system of an independent Catalonia. Anton Gasol and Xavier Segura (Translated by Jana Graham) ......................... 103 6. Structures of state and their impact on labour. Josep Pedrol (Translated by Josep Pedrol and M. Eugènia Bentanachs)....... 117 7. Tax revenue and public spending. Núria Bosch and Marta Espasa (Translated by M. Eugènia Bentanachs) .................. 131 8. Debt and the distribution of assets. Does freedom have a price? David Ros and Roger Fatjó (Translated by Phillip Ortega) . 147 9. Pensions in an independent Catalonia. Núria Bosch and Marta Espasa (Translated by Miquel Strubell)........................ 175 10. Independence and boycott. Xavier Cuadras Morató and Modest Guinjoan (Translated by Jana Graham) ......................... 181 11. Impact on the number of companies and multinationals. Francesc Raventós (Translated by Jacqueline Hall) ........................ 191 12. Impact of an independent Catalonia: the economists’ view. Àngel Hermosilla (Translated by Monika Ferré) ......................... 205 13. Conclusions: economic certainties and political question marks. Oriol Amat and Modest Guinjoan (Translated by Mike Holt) ........................... 223 Information about the authors .......................... 231 6 The Economy of Catalonia Preface to the English edition This English translation of the original Catalan book* went to the publishers days after the mass celebration of Catalonia’s national day on 11 September, when hundreds of thousands of men, women and children of all ages, backgrounds and beliefs, and from all economic sectors – workers, business people, pensioners, self-employed, unemployed - took to the streets, joyfully, enthusiastically and full of hope, creating a human mosaic of the Catalan flag in the form of a “v” to demonstrate their wish for Catalans to be able to vote to become a new State within Europe. The emotive images were seen worldwide. But what is the viability of an independent Catalonia? The wish of the people can only be realised within a framework which is both juridically and economically viable. Alongside the mobilisation of the Catalan people many professionals are rigorously analysing this viability. This book forms part of that process, addressing some key economic issues. Juridically too, an independent Catalonia would fit into EU legislation and International law, but addressing this goes beyond the scope of the book. * Original Catalan version “Economia de Catalunya. Preguntes i respostes sobre l’impacte econòmic de la independència.” Comissió d’Economia Catalana. Profit Editorial. 2014. 7 As a member of the Catalan Economy Committee of the Association of Economists of Catalonia and Coordinator of the Economists’ Sector of the ANC (Assemblea Nacional Catalana) it is my pleasure to introduce this English edition, which will only be published electronically. It is an initiative of two sections of the ANC: Economists and Translators. It has been undertaken in the firm belief that answers to questions on the economic implications and viability of an independent Catalonia should reach as wide an audience as possible. It is a privilege for an economist to witness the commitment of so many people working in many economic areas, wanting to spread their knowledge to contribute to the understanding of how we have reached the current situation, and the opportunities of Catalonia as an independent state. I would like to end by thanking the following people for their goodwill, hard work and commitment in translating and/or reviewing a chapter or chapters: M. Eugènia Bentanachs (coordinator economists), Georgina Bryan- Brown, Monika Ferré, Jana Graham (coordinator translators), Jacqueline Hall, Mike Holt, Phillip Ortega, Josep Pedrol, Àngela Pous, Miquel Strubell, Jordi Vilanova. The images of the “V” for voting and victory are very photogenic but this book adds professional rigour to the will of the people. David Ros Serra Member of the Catalan Economy Committee of the Association of Economists of Catalonia and Coordinator of the Economists’ Sector of the ANC. 8 The Economy of Catalonia Preface (Translated by Jordi Vilanova) This collection of papers reflects the will of the Catalan Association of Economists and its members to participate actively in the debates in soci- ety and to do so from an open, plural, constructive perspective. I sin- cerely believe it is a responsibility we cannot eschew, and that, as econo- mists and social analysts, the problems and concerns of society affect us very directly, especially since they are largely related to the economy. Collectively, this is not an easy task because of the difficulties inherent in the social sciences in presenting indisputable, unalloyed alternatives. Any contribution to the debate must therefore consider the diversity of out- looks and assume that, despite all efforts, the diagnosis of conflicts in so- ciety is often conditioned by ideological approaches. This should not imply a limitation to the determination of economists as a whole to col- laborate, within their area of expertise, so that discussions are based on information which is as objective as possible, although we must admit there are uncertainties that cannot be elucidated, and can only be defined and contextualised imperfectly. There is no doubt that one of the great debates in Catalan society today revolves around the so-called sovereignty process and the consequences of eventual statehood for Catalonia. Although it is essentially a problem 9 that lies in the political sphere, it is clear that the economy, or rather the economic consequences, whether positive or negative, draw much of the debate. That is why it is perfectly rational that the Catalan Economy Committee of the Association should echo the debate and, within the Corporation’s own pluralistic approach and broader economic disci- pline, participate in the discussion addressing the major issues generated by the process from an economic perspective. It is clear that throughout the text the central points of debate are: eco- nomic viability, the European Union, the Euro, the impact on trade, fi- nance, business, debt and so on. Notwithstanding the range of topics covered and the number of economists who participated, it is hoped the conclusions set out here may be verified or challenged by contributions of others, with the conviction that the whole should be improved in the process. In this regard, I must sincerely thank the authors for the clarity of their positions, allowing the reader unversed in the field of economics to follow the reasoning and form an opinion on each of the topics cov- ered. As the Dean of the Association of Economists of Catalonia, I ex- tend my thanks for two reasons. Firstly, the willingness of the authors to participate in the Catalan Economy Committee’s initiative, contributing with their knowledge to make the debate more rational, and secondly because, although the opinions included are obviously attributable only to the authors, I am convinced their quality and rigour lend prestige to the Association and benefit the whole of Catalan society. Joan B. Casas Dean of the Association of Economists of Catalonia 10 The Economy of Catalonia Introduction (Translated by Jordi Vilanova) Through this publication, which is an initiative of the Catalan Economy Committee, the Association of Economists
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