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Upper Svaneti Adaptation Strategy to the Climate Change

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Upper Svaneti Adaptation Strategy to the Climate Change Tbilisi 2014 1 The present report is drafted in the process of preparation of Georgia’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. The preparation process involved a large group of specialists, representing: the Ministry of Environment and National Resources Protection of Georgia; the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia; the Ministry of Energy of Georgia; the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia; the Ministry of Labor, Health and Social Affairs of Georgia; the Ministry of Regional Development and Infrastructure of Georgia; the Ministry of Education and Science of Georgia; Georgian National Agency of Cultural Heritage Protection; National Environmental Agency; Institute of Geography; individual academic institutes; representatives of local government of Mestia municipality and local consultants engaged in tourism, health and agriculture, independent experts and NGOs. Published with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Georgia "The views expressed in this publication belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the United Nations or the United Nations Development Programme“ © UNDP Georgia 2014 Copyright Published in Georgia 2 Abbreviations ADA - Austrian Development Agency CDM - Clean Development Mechanism CTCN – Climate Technology Centre and Network CVD- Cardiovascular Diseases ENVSEC -Environmental Security Initiative EU –European Union EWS – Early Warning Systems GCF - Green Climate Fund GDP –Gross Domestic Product GEF - Global Environment Facility GIZ -German Agency for International Cooperation GoG – Government of Georgia GWP- Global Warming Potential HDRMP – Health Disaster Risk Management Plan HI – Heat Index IOM -International Organization for Migration IPCC -Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UNISDR – United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction KfW-German Government Owned Development Bank LEPL -Legal Entity of Public Law LNG – Liquefied Natural Gas MENRPG - Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia MLHSAG- Ministry of Labour Health and Social Affairs of Georgia MoA - Ministry of Agriculture NAMA-Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions ND – Natural Disasters NEA - National Environmental Agency PHCU - Primary Health Care Unit SPI - Standardized Precipitation index TCI- Tourism Climate Index UNDP - United Nations Development Programme UNEP –United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID - United States Agency for International Development 3 Table of Contents Introduction 1 Climate in Upper Svaneti ........................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Ongoing Climate Change in Upper Svaneti ...................................................................... 11 1.2 Expected Climate Change on the Territory of Upper Svaneti ......................................... 19 2 Impact of Climate Change on Mestia Municipality ................................................................. 22 2.1 Impact of Climate Change on Glaciers in Enguri Basin ................................................... 22 2.1.1 General Description of Glaciers in Enguri River Basin ............................................. 22 2.1.2 Impact of Global Warming on Glaciers in Enguri Basin ............. Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.1.3 Impact of Ongoing Warming on Enguri River Runoff Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.2 Impact of Climate Change on Agroclimatic Zones in the Mestia Municipality ...........Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.3 Impact of Climate Change on Forests in Mestia MunicipalityError! Bookmark not defined. 2.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Activation of Extreme Geological Events in Mestia Municipality.............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.5 Impact of Climate Change on Historical Monuments in Upper Svaneti ......................... 68 2.6 Impact of Climate Change on the Health Sector .............................................................. 79 2.7 Climate Change and Tourism in Mestia ............................................................................ 92 3 Production of Renewable Resources (Biogas) and Organic Fertilizer in Mestia District ...... 94 3.1 Energy Consumption ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.2 Biogas Production and Usage Potential ............................................................................. 96 3.3 Bio-Fertilizer ....................................................................................................................... 99 3.4 Existing Situation and Problems Regarding the use of Biogas Potential in Mestia Municipality......................................................................................................................... 100 3.5 Existing Legislative Framework for the Development of the Renewable Energy Sector 100 3.6 Specific Recommendations for the Development of Biogas in Georgia and Namely, in Mestia District ..................................................................................................................... 102 4 Mestia Municipality Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change .... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.1. Vulnerable system …………………………………………………………………………...…..104 4.2. Mestia Municipaliti Adaptation strategy to climate change ……………………………..114 5 Project Proposals ........................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.1 Planting Soil-Protective Forest on the Eroded Slopes and Establishment of Forest Nurseries in Upper Svaneti ...................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.2 Minimizing the Risk of Damaging Lakhamula Village of Mestia Municipality and Lakhamula Section of Zugdidi-Mestia Motor Road with Landslide and Mudflow Processes ................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.3 Assessing Mudflow Hazard to Nakra Village in Mestia Municipality and Recommendations for Implementing Protective Measures ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4 5.4 Project Proposal on the Preservation and Rehabilitation of the Cultural Heritage in Upper Svaneti (Hadishi Village)................................................................................................................. 134 5.5 Project Proposal on the Preservation and Rehabilitation of the Cultural Heritage in Upper Svaneti (Zhamushi Village) ..................................................................................... 161 5.6 Reducing Climate Change Risks in the Healthcare Sector of Mestia Municipality .....Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.7 Offering Thermophile and Mezophilic Biogas Devices to Hadishi and Ushguli Villages of Mestia Municipality ................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Annexes ................................................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Annex 1: Climate Data ....................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.0 Annex 2. Results of the Research Conducted on Chalaati Glacier in Different Years ...........Error! Bookmark not defined. Annex 3. Potential of Using Renewable Resources ......................... Error! Bookmark not defined.8 Annex 4. Afforestation and Forest Management ............................................................................ 200 Tables Table 1.1. Seasonal Characteristics of the Climate Change in Upper Svaneti Region between the Periods of 1961-1985 and 1986-2010 Years ........................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 1.2. Actual and Forecasted Change of Climate Parameters in Mestia for Different Maximum Temperatures between Various Periods of the 1961-2050 YearsError! Bookmark not defined. Table 1.3 Forecast of Climate Parameters for Mestia Generated with Models Ensemble ........... 20 Table 1.4 Forecast of Climate Parameters for Khaishi Village Generated with Models Ensemble ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 Table 1.5 Forecast of Climate Parameters for Zugdidi Generated with Models Ensemble…….21 Table 2.1 Enguri River Basin Glacier Distribution by Area ............... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 2.2 Enguri River Basin Glacier Distribution by Morphological Types Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 2.3. Characteristics of Glaciers in Enguri River Basin.............. Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 2.4. Dynamics of Chalaati Glacier Tongue by Years with the Marking Method ..........Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 2.5. Superficial Melting of Chalaati Glacier Surface Calculated with the Ablation Lath Network Data ..................................................................................................................................... 30 Table 2.6. Distribution of Areas on Chalaati Glacier according to the Height Zones and Ablation Volume ............................................................................................................................................... 31 Table 2.7. Distribution of Shares of Full Annual River Streamflow Components in Enguri River
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