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Home , 1973 oil crisis, Democratic Russia, Dmitri Volkogonov, Dmitry Yazov, Joseph Stalin

Welcome Letter

Dear Delegates,

I am proud to welcome you to the 35th iteration of the North American Model at the world-renowned University of Toronto. I and the rest of our great crisis staff look forward to working with you and allowing you to demonstrate your research, teamwork, and negotiation skills through the medium of Model UN.

For a brief introduction of myself, I am pursuing a double major in International Relations and East Asian Studies. I have done Model UN for three years and this will be my first time chairing a committee. This background guide provides a (somewhat) brief overview of the historical situation and important issues to the committee. Also included is a short list of potential research material, but I still urge you to do your own research on the topic.

As you all know, the scenario that you will be dealing with is historically important as the Fall of the ended the and basically created the unipolar world that we now live in. But the USSR doesn’t have to fall, as you and other delegates will be given the reins of a weakened but still powerful . Will you give more power to local leaders and create a more federalized union? Or will you rule with an iron fist and usher in a new age of Soviet strength and control not seen since ? You might even concede to fate and work towards peaceful dissolution. Acting as a government bureaucrat, a military , or even a secret police chief, you must make a choice for the future of the union and then do everything possible to accomplish that. Afterall, politics in the Soviet Union is a blood sport. Whatever you choose, I look forward to meeting you all and I hope you enjoy NAMUN 2020.

Glory to the Eternal Socialist Revolution,

Comrade Nathan Ye

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Introduction

The Soviet Union. To some it is a ray of hope for exploited workers and disadvantaged peoples across the world. To others, it is an “evil empire”, as succinctly stated by President , an enemy of freedom determined to keep an iron grip over its own people. Whatever view you have of the USSR, it is undeniable that by 1990 the Union is in a state of danger not seen since in 1941. Plagued by longstanding economic problems, resurgent , elite infighting, and a general loss of confidence by its population, the future of the Soviet Union is dark and discouraging.

The notoriously lethargic Soviet economic system had begun to fail by the late and the young leader of Soviet Union, , attempted to fix it with a series of free- market-inspired reforms known as “.” These however failed to accomplish his goal and, in some ways, even made economic conditions worse. The second arm of Gorbachev’s reforms, “”, focused on liberalizing the Soviet social system, meaning increased , freedom of demonstration, and freedom of the press. However, this only allowed previously repressed nationalisms to break out and caused a widespread loss of confidence in the Soviet state. All the while, elites in the Soviet Union are divided between liberals who want more reforms, and conservatives who don’t.

In 1989, in Eastern fell, the came crashing down both literally and metaphorically. Depending on who you ask in the Soviet Union, the fall of their satellite states can be blamed on having too many reforms or not enough. Whatever the case is, something needs to be done or else it will soon join the likes of and East in the graveyard of perished states. The future of the Union and the reputation of is at stake.

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Definitions and other Useful facts

Eastern Bloc: Ambiguous term that describes the Soviet sphere of influence and states under Soviet influence. Some include Communist China or Vietnam in the “”, but for the purposes of this background guide it will refer to the communist nations in Eastern Europe (excluding and Albania) and the Soviet Union.

USSR: Stands for “Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.” Synonym for “Soviet Union.”

Russification: A process of integrating the various ethnic and national minorities into the majority . has been implemented before the Soviet Union as well. Russification includes forcing the on minority eras, the teaching of Russian history in schools, etc.

Iron Curtain: An imaginary line dividing the democratic-capitalist Europe and Communist Eastern Europe. Coined by British Prime Minister .

Soviet: A term referring to various types of national and social councils during the . Eventually became an adjective to describe things related to the Soviet Union.

What is a Soviet Republic? The Soviet Union is exactly as it sounds like, a collection of (nominally) independent Soviet Republics. It was the basic administrative unit of the Soviet Union. For example, there was a Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and a Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic. Later, when elections were held, they were held by each of the Soviet Republics, much like provincial elections in Canada.

Why do you not refer to Soviet Leaders by their official titles? Unlike the US leader, who is just called President, Soviet leaders often had many titles and titles changed after Gorbachev’s reforms. For clarity, it’s just easier to say “Soviet leader…”.

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Timeline of Key Events

1985- Gorbachev becomes General Secretary of the Soviet Union

1986- Gorbachev starts to implement “Glasnost” reforms

1987- Gorbachev starts second round of “Perestroika reforms” and the process of

1988- Beginning of

• Protests in Baltics against anniversary of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact • Ethnic violence in and Azerbaijan • Protests in • Demonstrations in • Protests in

1989- Fall of Eastern Europe

• Polish elections result in Communist Defeat • Hungary democratizes • Fall of East German regime and • Semi-peaceful protests lead to fall of Communist regimes in Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia • Violent revolution in and execution of Nicolae Ceaușescu • Further democratization of the USSR, with elections being held for the newly created Congress of People’s Deputies of the Soviet Union (basically a semi-independent parliament) • “Baltic Chain of Freedom” forms across the three Baltic States, increasing calls for full independence • Violent crackdown of students in China with the “ Square Massacre”, an example of a successful crackdown by a communist government

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Historical Background

Beginnings The birth of the Soviet Union can be traced back to 1917, in the midst of the First World War. was losing badly against the Germans and military incompetence was rife. This, along with widespread , corruption, and food , was all blamed on the Tsar.1 As a result, when food shortages hit the Russian capital of Petrograd, regular people began to , escalating into a general strike, which forced the Tsar to abdicate in favor of a provisional, and democratic, government.2 But this provisional government did little to solve Russia’s problems, and instead precipitated the rise of , a Bolshevik and a Marxist. His famous slogan was “Peace, Land, and Bread”, that is peace with the Germans, redistribution of land for the peasants, and bread for everyone.3 It was a potent solution, and soon another uprising was launched in October of 1917, overthrowing the Provisional government and establishing the world’s first . A brutal and bloody civil war would follow against loyalists of the Tsars as well as smaller wars against , Ukraine, etc, leading to the Union Treaty of 1922 creating a Union of nominally independent and ethnicity-organized states, known as the Soviet Union.4 These wars and Lenin’s reign laid the basis for the Soviet State as we know it, with the creation of the secret police, centralization of government, hyper-propagandization, and the militarization of society.5

Stalin and the Growth of the Succeeding Lenin was Joseph Stalin, a brutally authoritarian and decisive leader willing to do anything to shape the Soviet Union in his vision. With Stalin came the Five-Year Plans, plans dictated by Stalin that encompassed every aspect of society in order to modernize the Soviet Union, a symptom of ever greater centralization of power.6 Using the five-year plans, Stalin put a priority on heavy industry, resulting in the doubling of outputs in coal, iron, and the movement of millions of peasants to urban areas. This population shift combined with continuous draughts and the collectivization of agriculture resulted in a famine in 1932, which

1 Geoffrey Hosking, Russia and the : From the Earliest Times to the Present (London: Penguin Press, 2012), 390-391. 2 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 391. 3 , The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Empire: Political Leaders from Lenin to Gorbachev (London: HarperCollins, 1998), 27. 4 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 424-425. 5 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 410-415. 6 Volkogonov, Rise and Fall, 104-105.

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would kill upwards of 5 million people.7 Building on what Lenin already created, Stalin expanded the secret police and the repressive state, which he used to force the all aspects of Soviet society to conform to his thinking.8 For example, the “Great Terror” would see five million arrested and over a million shot.9 It was also under Stalin that we see both increased ethnic division as well as ethnic integration, with Stalin giving every nationality, regardless of size, its own republic or autonomous province but at the same time “Russifying” the Soviet Union,10 creating tension and resentment. After the brutal Second World War, during which the Soviets suffered 29 million dead, Stalin expanded the USSR’s borders to envelop most of Eastern Europe, overrunning and installing puppet communist regimes in countries such as Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Eastern Germany, in order to protect against feared Western encroachment,11 creating the so called “”.

Khrushchev and Brezhnev: Reform and Conservatism , Stalin’s successor, was notable for his attempt to give socialism a “human face.”12 In his “Secret Speech”, Khrushchev revealed the true extent of Stalin’s horrific actions, which lead to the release of millions of prisoners from Soviet .13 Overall, Khrushchev’s reformist vision for socialism “stamped an entire generation- a generation, led by Mikhail Gorbachev.”14 However, Khrushchev’s reforms also prompted the Hungarian uprising in 1956 which was only stopped when the invaded Budapest.15 The of 1968 was also impart caused by Khrushchev’s reforms (though it happened after his removal), and it too could only be solved with Soviet Military force.16 What’s important about these two events is how they impacted the attitudes and of future Soviet leaders. The Hungarian and Czech uprisings upset and terrified leaders such as Andropov and Brezhnev and pushed

7 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 454. 8 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 459-464. 9 Volkogonov, Rise and Fall, 105, 109. 10 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 428, 432. 11 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 499, 509-511. 12 , Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse 1970-2000 (New York: , 2008), 2-3. 13 Volkogonov, Rise and Fall, 201. 14 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 3. 15 Stephen Kotkin, Uncivil Society: 1989 and the Implosion of the Communist Establishment (New York: The Modern Library, 2009), 16-17. 16 , Postwar: A Since 1945 (New York: Penguin Press, 2005), 438, 443, 444.

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them away from reform for fear of more violence,17 but with Gorbachev, the uprisings convinced him that the USSR could not hold onto Eastern Europe by force.18

Stagnation Succeeding Khrushchev was , a naturally conservative person afraid of making any drastic changes to the system.19 Around the time that he took power, the Soviet Union was facing problems such as slowing economic growth, environmental pollution, decreasing birth rates, and an over-reliance on inefficient heavy industry, all of which would be temporarily solved by one event: the .20 With the increased , the Soviets were able to subsidize their worse performing allies by selling them oil and other raw materials at below market price in return for poorly-produced goods.21 But this was not enough to maintain levels of living sufficient to retain legitimacy for the ruling communist regimes, so they were forced to borrow money from the West.22 This borrowing was on based on the belief that the loans would pay for equipment which would then produce goods that could be exported. However, Soviet goods were often of low quality and incomparable to goods produced in the capitalist countries of Europe or Asia. As a result, these Eastern European states were forced to take on more loans to pay for their existing ones. In effect, “the [Eastern] bloc had become a Ponzi Scheme.”23 Unfortunately for the Soviet Union, oil prices began to fall in the 1980s and so the Soviet economy too resorted to borrowing.24 To make matters worse, Brezhnev was fervently opposed to any reforms and so were his two successors, both of whom were too ill and geriatric to do much anyhow.25

Gorbachev and Reforms In 1985 Mikhail Gorbachev, a politically divisive figure and the youngest Soviet leader since Joseph Stalin, came to lead the Soviet Union.26 Facing economic problems and decreasing living standards, Gorbachev set out to reform the sluggish Soviet economy, through efforts collectively known as Perestroika. These reforms allowed gave state ministries and factories more

17 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 17. 18 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 38. 19 Volkogonov, Rise and Fall, 262-263. 20 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted,15,17, 25. 21 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 26, 31. 22 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 28, 31, 49. 23 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 28-30. 24 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 31. 25 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 48-52. 26 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 56.

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autonomy, allowed Soviet citizens to open small service enterprises and companies, and decentralized the banking system.27 The problem was that these reforms tried to maintain the old Soviet Command system while injecting capitalist elements, resulting in what author Stephen Kotkin refers to as an “economic halfway house.”28 This “halfway house” system was the worst of both worlds and lead to massive shortages in basic goods.29 (For a much more detailed explanation on Perestroika and Soviet economic problems, see “Issues” section).

The second half of Gorbachev’s reforms were political and social in nature, termed collectively as Glasnost, or “openness.” The Soviet media and political system had always been hyper-confidential, leading to problems such as false data and disasters such as . Thus, Gorbachev judged that some reform of the media was needed.30 Previously banned books such as The Archipelago were allowed to be printed, the media was encouraged to cover problems such as the Afghan War, and information about the gulags and the suppression of entire nationalities were released.31 The hope was that the like Khrushchev’s Secret Speech, Glasnost would renew the Soviet people’s faith in socialism, in effect acting as a “pressure-release valve” that would stave off any further anger towards the system. The problem was the Secret Speech discredited only Stalin, but Glasnost went much further, in effect discrediting the entire socialist system.32 In addition, Glasnost allowed old nationalisms to reappear, such in Armenia and the Baltic states, as people could once again discuss their own local histories and crimes perpetrated against them by the Soviet State.33

The Fall of Communism in Eastern Europe There were many reasons why communist states began to fall to Eastern Europe. As mentioned previously, the communist powers of Eastern Europe were in severe economic decline and had taken on massive amounts of debt (total debt of Eastern Europe increased from $6 billion in 1970 to $90 billion in 1989), forcing austerity measures and cuts to quality of life.34 Another, less well-known reason, was that the East was gradually increasing its contact with the West. Soviet citizens had access to new and better versions of televisions and radios, from which they could tune into foreign programs and shows. They could see that they were living much

27 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 578. 28 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 67. 29 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 578. 30 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 67. 31 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 68-69. 32 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 68-69. 33 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 71-72. 34 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 29.

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worse than the West and gradually a culture of Western infatuation developed.35 Arguably the most important reason was perhaps Gorbachev’s repudiation of the . Following the Hungary Uprising in 1956 and the Prague Spring in 1968, the “Brezhnev Doctrine” was established, which stated that:

The peoples of socialist countries and the Communist parties have and must have freedom to determine their country’s path of development. Any decisions they make, however must not be harmful to socialism in their own country or to the fundamental interests of other socialist countries.

In other words, any attempt by a country to democratize or drastically reform will result in a Soviet invasion. Gorbachev refuted this policy. In a speech to the Council of Europe, Gorbachev declared that independence was “entirely a matter for the people themselves [to decide].”36 This refutation unleashed a wave of revolutions as the Soviet Military was the only thing keeping the regimes of Eastern Europe stable.37

The and the “Snowball Effect”38 The end of the Iron Curtain begins with Poland. In 1980 after the government raised the price of meat, to help pay off their outsized debts, triggering a general strike across the country and creating a union/anti-government group called “Solidarity”.39 While initially crushed by Polish secret police, Solidarity re-emerged in 1989 when economic reforms triggered further price increases.40 Solidarity received national attention when Polish member Miodowicz challenged Solidarity leader Walesa to a televised debate, in which Miodowicz was rhetorically crushed with the entire Polish population watching.41 With growing pressure and Gorbachev’s refutation of the Brezhnev Doctrine, the Polish communists agreed to a roundtable with Solidarity, where they agreed to hold democratic elections.42 The elections were a humiliating for the communists, losing ninety-nine percent of the Polish Senate and all the seats

35 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 41-42. 36 Judt, Postwar, 632. 37 Judt, Postwar, 632. 38 Keep in mind that the order is very general and specific dates of events are not mentioned. Also, there is debate to when each country truly “fell”. 39 Judt, Postwar, 587-589. 40 Judt, Postwar, 606. 41 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 125. 42 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 124-128.

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not reserved for Communist candidates in the lower house.43 After a few weeks of deliberation (and some prodding by Gorbachev), the Polish Communists gave up their power.44

Inspired by Poland’s example and Gorbachev’s democratization of the USSR, young communist reformers in Hungary started to democratize by recognizing the right to free assembly and allowing other parties. Free elections soon followed, and Hungary gradually transitioned away from Communism.45

The next to fall was . Following the example of other Eastern Bloc countries, protesters began to gather in the city of Leipzig, demonstrating for the right to immigrate to .46 When the newly democratized Hungarian government de- militarized its border with , East Germans, began crossing into Austria via Hungary by the thousands to declare asylum at West German embassies.47 With the ever-growing demonstrations in Leipzig and the continuing outflow of refugees, East German leader was determined to stop the bleeding with force, but the crackdown never came, in part due to Mikhail Gorbachev telling Honecker that “matters affecting the GDR are not decided in but Berlin,”48 meaning that Gorbachev would not support a use of force. A final blunder sealed the deal for East Germany. In one last desperate attempt to maintain power, East Germany liberalized its travel law with West Germany to relieve popular pressure. However, in a bungled press conference, party member Gunter Schabowski mistakenly declared that the law had already gone into effect and that East German citizens could cross the into the West at any time without a permit, leading to a mass exodus in Berlin.49 With a few nervous sentences, the Berlin Wall fell.

In Czechoslovakia, students and inspired by the Hungarian and Polish revolutions began to march in Prague in November of 1989. There was a brief confrontation, which only encouraged further protests, leading to the resignation of the entire of both the Czech and Slovak Communist parties.50 A multi-party cabinet was soon formed and with that, Czechoslovakia’s “” came to a peaceful and orderly end.

43 Judt, Postwar, 607. 44 Judt, Postwar, 608. 45 Judt, Postwar, 610. 46 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 55. 47 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 54-55. 48 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 58. 49 Judt, Postwar, 614. 50 Judt, Postwar, 618.

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The opposite was true of Romania. Romania also participated in the debt-splurge of Eastern Europe, but it was worse. Ceausescu, Romania’s communist , had used loans to expand their oil-refining capacity, so much so that they needed to import crude oil to refine in order to make a profit, just as crude oil prices skyrocketed in the 1970s.51 To pay for this debt, crippling austerity measures were implemented, including restrictions on electricity and hot water; meat, cheese, wheat, and dairy were exported for currency while the people of Romania starved.52 Therefore, one can see why in November of 1989, a small protest in the city of Timisoara rapidly transformed into a large demonstration against the Romanian regime. Soldiers were sent in and opened fire on the crowd, leading to further protests across the country as news spread.53 Ceausescu, in a bid to reassure the country and maintain control, tried to give a speech from the balcony of the Central Committee building in Bucharest. When he spoke however, gunshots and grenades went off in the crowd, causing the crowd to start chanting “Ceausescu the dictator” with Ceausescu responding with weak shouts of “what?” and “shut up!”54 Thus, Ceausescu was emasculated and humiliated on national television, forcing him to escape from Bucharest on a helicopter.55 Ceausescu and his wife were soon caught, and on Christmas Day, 1989, both were convicted of genocide and unceremoniously executed by firing squad.56 With the death of Ceausescu, so too came the death of communism in Eastern Europe.

51 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 80. 52 Judt, Postwar, 623. 53 Judt, Postwar, 625. 54 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 87. 55 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 87-88. 56 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 70-71.

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Issues

Economic Issues The design of the Soviet economic systems arose out of the planned, or command economic system that was dictated by Soviet doctrine. In a capitalist market system, the government has a limited number of ways it can control the economy: taxes, spending, legislation etc. But as a whole, market forces, private enterprises, and individual choices dictate the prices of goods, how much of each good is produced, as well as wages. Competition between private industries allows for innovation as companies fight to win over a greater share of the market, with inefficient companies going bankrupt, as process known as .57

In contrast, in the Soviet , the government, through legions of bureaucrats, controls every economic factor, including the price of goods, what goods are produced, and how goods are distributed. There are no private companies, as everything belongs to the state, meaning there is no competition between industries. It also means that there should be full employment (theoretically at least). The logic behind this system is that there is anarchy and exploitation in the capitalist market, with business owners taking advantage of the working class and competition destroying companies, leading to lost capital and unemployment.58 Theoretically, the planned economic system would solve all of those problems.

However, this was not simply not possible. Soviet economic planners had to set prices for millions of items, from to leather shoes, leading some products to be overpriced, resulting in a surplus, and some essential items being underpriced, causing shortages that were endemic to Soviet Union.59 Furthermore, since employment was guaranteed and factories faced no competition or need to make a profit, there was a disconnect between supply and demand. It didn’t matter what was sold, only how much the factories produced.60 Due to the way in which GDP was calculated in the Soviet Union, quantity was prioritized over quality by factory managers, resulting low quality products,61 which then had no export market. Factories hired more people than they needed, in order to provide full employment, which in turn resulted in low

57 David Lane, Soviet Society Under Perestroika (Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1990), 24-26. 58 Lane, Soviet Society Under Perestroika, 27-28. 59 Lane, Soviet Society Under Perestroika, 29. 60 Lane, Soviet Society Under Perestroika, 30. 61 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 64.

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labor productivity, as workers never had to worry about losing their jobs.62 If one were to describe the Soviet economic system in one word, it would be inefficient.

Initially, this system worked. Russia had been largely agricultural and through Stalin’s forced urbanization and industrialization, it was transformed into a modern industrial state. But this could not last, as the growth relied on ever-increasing economic inputs: labor, natural resources, and capital investment.63 Around the 1970s, there was no more land to cultivate, no more factories to be opened, no more peasants to be forcibly moved into the cities, and with the lack of innovation, the Soviet economy began to fail.

Gorbachev’s Perestroika reforms attempted to fix this system. For example, Gorbachev gave state ministries and factories more autonomy to set their prices and production targets, allowed Soviet citizens to open small service enterprises and companies, and legalized private banks.64 However, Gorbachev did not fully reform the system and kept much of the old restrictions because too much market liberalization would undermine the control of the communist party not only economically, but also politically.65 The new Soviet mixed economic system was the worst of both worlds as private firms raised prices on previously fixed-price goods and took away raw materials and labor from the state firms, leading to massive shortages in basic goods.66 It didn’t help that the Perestroika reforms depended on plant managers unaccustomed to independent thought and market forces as well as bureaucrats whose authority were threatened by economic reform.67 To top it all off, Gorbachev downsized the military and the arms industry along with it, one of the only profitable industries in the whole Soviet Union.68 Increasingly, local leaders and politicians began to break away from the central economic policy, hoarding and its resources for their own people and refusing to share, creating further division and within the Soviet Union.69

62 Lane, Soviet Society Under Perestroika, 33-35. 63 Robert C. Allen, “The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Economy,” The Canadian Journal of Economics 34, no. 4 (November 2001): 862, JSTOR. 64 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 578. 65 John Blaney and Mike Gfoeller, “Lessons from the Failure of Perestroika,” Political Science Quarterly 108, no. 3 (Autumn 1993): 486, JSTOR. 66 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 578. 67 Blaney and Gfoeller, “Lessons from Failure,” 489. 68 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 65-66. 69Blaney and Gfoeller, “Lessons from Failure,” 489.

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Popular Discontent As mentioned previously, the Soviet Union was formed through conquest, especially after the Second World War, when many countries were added by force. Many of these territories had had previous experience with independent government, such as the Baltics,70 and there were long-standing religious and ethnic conflicts, such as the tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.71 These previous “identities” had been repressed from the time of Stalin in favour of “Russification”, but they started to re-emerge starting with the events in Eastern Europe. This was in-part caused by Gorbachev’s policy of Glasnost, which revealed the extent to which the Soviet regime used terror and repression to suppress language and culture of the periphery Soviet States, leading to a loss of confidence in the entire Communist system.72 Encouraged by Gorbachev’s lack of action and his democratic reforms (more on that later), demonstrations began to in 1987 in all three Baltics states, gradually growing in size.73 Even in the supposedly more “stable” republics of Ukraine and Belarus, local nationalism began to reemerge, but it was also used by local elites to gather more power in their own hands in preparation for a possible Soviet collapse.74 Even in Russia, long considered to the “centre” of the USSR, nationalism was beginning to rise. There was a common sentiment in Russia that they were subsidizing the rest of the USSR and living worse off than their neighbors.75 Leading the charge for was , a former Communist party official turned Russian populist, who wanted greater autonomous for the Russian legislature.76

Elite Split While Gorbachev may have had the broad support of the people for his reforms, this sentiment was not reflected among the top Soviet leadership. The “leader” of the so-called hardliner movement was Yegor Ligachev, deputy Secretary of the Communist Party, who while supported reforms, thought Gorbachev went too far and too fast, putting the entire Soviet Union at risk of collapse.77 There was also an element of selfishness at play. Part of Gorbachev’s reforms was the democratization of first the Communist party, and then the legalization of multi-party elections in each of the Soviet States. Many Soviet officials, who never had to care about public

70 Judt, Postwar, 644. 71 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 88. 72 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 68-72. 73 Judt, Postwar, 645. 74 Judt, Postwar, 647. 75 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 140. 76 Judt, Postwar, 653. 77 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 73-74.

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opinion or votes were now faced with the possibility of losing their jobs.78 Among military and police officials, such as KGB head and Defence Minister , there was also resentment at Gorbachev for allowing East Europe to break away so easily and an impetus to not allow the same to happen to the USSR.79

State of Affairs

The loss of Eastern Europe, especially East Germany, was a major blow to the overall morale of the Soviet Union and only served to encourage further independence movements.80 The question of East Germany still remains to be solved, as the fall of communism does not necessarily have to mean reunification with West Germany. For reunification to occur, it would need the consent of the Soviet Union, both as a practical reason, due to the Soviet military presence in Germany, and legally as a result of the agreement that divided Germany post-World War Two.81 A reunified and NATO-aligned Germany could prove a danger for the USSR and would be virulently opposed by Soviet hardliners. In the Baltics, independence activists are gaining ground as they start to air their old grievances with the Soviet Union, as demonstrated by the “Baltic Wall of Freedom”, a human chain 650km in length to protest the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that gave the Baltics to the Soviet Union.82 In the Soviet elections in 1989, pro-independence leaders won massive majorities in all three Baltic states.83 Riding on this electoral victory, independence groups in the Baltics have begun to get bolder, with the Lativian openly declaring its goal of independence and a majority of the Lithuanian Communist Party declaring to be for independence.84 In Ukraine and Belarus, local power figures are fighting for more autonomy, but not yet outright independence.85 In central Asia, ethnic tensions are flaring up in Azerbaijan between Azeris and Armenians, as there are increasing calls by ethnic Armenians in the Azerbaijani province of Karabakh for separation.86 In nearby Georgia, there are protests by nationalists, who want the restoration of Georgian culture and separation from the Soviet Union.87 In Russia, Boris Yeltsin is leading a movement called “Democratic Russia” and is

78 Kotkin, Armageddon Averted, 75. 79 Judt, Postwar, 654. 80 Kotkin, Uncivil Society, 135. 81 Judt, Postwar, 640-641. 82 Judt, Postwar, 644-645. 83 Judt, Postwar, 645. 84 Judt, Postwar, 646-647. 85 Judt, Postwar, 648-650. 86 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 583. 87 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 584.

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becoming more and more prominent by the day.88 His democratic and nationalist faction looks set to make huge gains in the upcoming Soviet Russian elections in 1990, with Yeltsin potentially becoming a major rival of Gorbachev, which could create a “Union with two Presidents” and divide loyalties. By January 1st, 1990, the situation is grim: Eastern Europe is lost, multiple republics are close to independence, the economic reforms had failed to materialize into growth, there is increasing ethnic violence in Central Asia, and Gorbachev is stuck trying to reconcile liberal nationalists and conservative hardliners in order to preserve the union.

88 Hosking, Russia and the Russians, 586.

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Suggested Sources

Books

Kotkin, Stephen. Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse 1970-2000. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.

Kotkin, Stephen. Uncivil Society: 1989 and the Implosion of the Communist Establishment. New York: The Modern Library, 2009.

Websites https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union https://www.britannica.com/event/the-collapse-of-the-Soviet-Union https://www.britannica.com/story/why-did-the-soviet-union-collapse

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Bibliography

Allen, Robert C. “The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Economy.” The Canadian Journal of Economics 34, no. 4 (November 2001): 859-881. JSTOR.

Blaney, John, and Mike Gfoeller. “Lessons from the Failure of Perestroika.” Political Science Quarterly 108, no. 3 (Autumn 1993): 481-496. JSTOR.

Hosking, Geoffrey. Russia and the Russians: From Earliest Times to the Present. London: Penguin Press, 2012.

Judt, Tony. Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945. New York: Penguin Press, 2005.

Kotkin, Stephen. Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse 1970-2000. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.

Kotkin, Stephen. Uncivil Society: 1989 and the Implosion of the Communist Establishment. New York: The Modern Library, 2009.

Lane, David. Soviet Society Under Perestroika. Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1990.

Volkogonov, Dmitri. Rise and Fall of the Soviet Empire: Political Leaders from Lenin to Gorbachev. London: HarperCollins, 1998.

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