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A Nalysts Disagree About How to Frame the Recent ml-l ii FROM THE CENTER O UT The Evolution of Party Politics: The March of the GOP Continues in North Carolina by Mebane Rash Whitman In March, the Center released the tenth edition of A Reactionary , Revolutionary, or Article II: A Guide to the N.C. Legislature. Article Evolutionary Election? II is a comprehensive guide to the 1995-96 General A nalystsdisagreeabout howtoframe therecent Assembly, containing profiles of each member, ef- electoral wins of the GOP in North Carolina. fectiveness rankings, demographic trends since Were the wins reactionary, that is, were voters 1975, and committee assignments. The latest edi- reacting in an angry anti-incumbent, anti-Democrat, tion reveals three major trends: (1) the significant anti-tax, anti-big government manner? Were the gains of the Republican Party, which now holds 92 wins revolutionary, a changing of the guard in terms of 170 seats in the legislature; (2) women have of which party governs the state-from Democrats, more power in the 1995-96 General Assembly be- whose party has governed the state for almost all of cause they secured plum committee chairs; and (3) the 20th century, to Republicans, who hope to gov- African-American legislators lost the speakership ern much of the 21st century? Or were they evolu- and powerful committee chairs, so their influence tionary, a single step in the long march of the has declined. Republican Party toward true competitiveness in a two-party state? The results of most elections are to some extent elections in North Carolina should not reactionary, but 1994 was not a run-of-the-mill be underestimated. Newspaper head- election. "Voters ... revolted against Democratic- The linesimportance heralded "Tarheel of the Revolution,"November 1994and dominated national politics that seemed corrupt, election results surprised even Republicans.' The divisive and slow to address the needs of ordinary Grand Old Party's gains in elections at all levels of citizens," writes Stanley Greenberg, pollster for government-national, state, and local-were grand President Bill Clinton, in The Polling Report.' indeed. So grand that some think it could portend a "Many voted to change a government that spends 21st century of Republican dominance in North too much and accomplishes too little, and to shift Carolina state politics. the public discourse away from big government Information about the gains of the GOP in solutions ." Pollsters brought together after the North Carolina is available in Article II: A Guide to election "agreed that a lot of votes were cast Nov. 8 the 1995-96 N. C. Legislature, a report released by in opposition to something-whether it was an the N.C. Center for Public Policy Research in March individual, or the party in power, or even more 1995. Other important trends also are apparent from broadly, the idea of government intruding into the guide: women have more power in the 1995-96 people's lives."3 General Assembly, while African Americans have Hal Hovey, former Illinois budget director, less; there are many newcomers in the 1995-96 analyzed voters' desire for change in the 1994 elec- General Assembly, but not a record number; and the tions. In State Policy Reports, he writes, "If voters number of retirees in the legislature is up, while the number of lawyers continues to decline. Mebane Rash Whitman is the Center's policy analyst. SEPTEMBER 1995 81 N.C. House Speaker Harold Brubaker (R-Randolph) was among the big winners in the 1994 GOP landslide. were unhappy with their lives and disillusioned the N.C. Center for Public Policy Research, uses with government, they may have concluded that two television-based images to describe the reac- change was desirable-not change in a particular tionary nature of the 1994 election. "One is the Nike direction, just change. This theory is supported by athletic shoe commercial image of `Just Do It.' As a poll showing that 53% of respondents explained one voter put it, `Just do it. Do it now, do it quickly, election results as indicating `people wanted to see just do it.' The problem is, they disagree over what a change in Washington,' which far outdistanced `it' is. Nevertheless, a big theme of the last elections `voting against the President and his agenda' was change, since more than two-thirds of indepen- (19%), and `because people wanted a more conser- dent voters believe the country is on the wrong vative Congress' track. People want (12%)." Once vot- change and a gov- ers decide they want ernment that works change for change's well-one that de- sake,according to "Voters this year revolted livers services more this analysis, state against Democratic- efficiently and for policy does not mat- dominated national politics less money. The ter. "It's time for a second image that changethreatens in- that seemed corrupt, may capture the cumbents regardless divisive and slow to 1994 electorate is of what they do, so address the needs of that of the television they can'trespond ordinary citizens." remote control, as in to the mandate ex- `I believe I'll change cept by finding their -STANLEY GREENBERG stations-or politi- nextjob." POLLSTER FOR PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON, cal parties. And if Ran Coble, ex- IN THE POLLING REPORT Republicans don't ecutivedirector of produce, I'll switch 82 NORTH CAROLINA INSIGHT tury, North Carolina since 1966 has been trans- formed into a state with a new political balance. "lt was a very big victory Democrats still dominate politics at the state and at for the Republican Party. the local level, but Republicans regularly are win- We may well be looking at ning the big elections-and lately, more of the little ones, too. North Carolina has become a two-party the complete political re- state in theory and in fact. The evidence of the alignment of the once shifting of political winds abounds."8 Democratic South to the Thad Beyle, a professor of political science at now solidly Republican the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, also thinks that the Republican gains in November were South." evolutionary, and says that none of this is surpris- -CHARLES BULLOCK ing. "This was all happening prior to Watergate. In A PROFESSORAT THE UNIVERSITYOF the late 1960s, after the Democrats passed the Civil GEORGIA WHO STUDIESPOLITICS Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, the Republi- IN THE SOUTH can Party began to gain momentum. But Watergate undid Republican gains in the South, and in 1976, North Carolinians supported fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter, the Democratic presidential nominee again in 1996."' The long-term impact of the 1994 from Georgia," says Beyle. "It took the Reagan/ elections is unknown until the results of the next few Bush era to instill confidence in the Republican elections can be compared. party again." In 1973, there were 50 Republican The Republican Party hopes the 1994 elections legislators in North Carolina. After Watergate, there represented a permanent revolution, and some ana- were ten. When Reagan won a second term in 1984, lysts believe their hopes were realized. Prior to the the Republicans again held 50 seats in the 1985 state election, Tom Vass, in an essay published in The legislature. In 1995, they increased that number Charlotte Observer, proclaimed, "If ... the citizens to 92. of this state should happen to rouse themselves to "This potentially was one of the most signifi- political fury in order to deal the Democrats a death cant elections," says Beyle. He notes several rea- blow, it would be to a political oblivion that the sons for Republican gains. Low African-American Democrats richly deserve."5 Charles Bullock, a turnout made it difficult for Democratic candidates professor at the University of Georgia who studies politics in the South, says, "It was a very big victory for the Republican Party. We may well be looking at the complete political realignment of the once Democratic South to the now solidly Republican "We are not on the South." He cites North Carolina as an example of a precipice of shifting to a state that's moving back towards a one-party sys- one: party Republican tem, this time controlled by the Republicans. South . The two-party An editorial in The Chapel Hill Herald noted that "[flar from a ripple, the Nov. 8 election was a system is an ingrained revolution."6 Former Governor Jim Martin, in an institution in national article published in The Charlotte Observer shortly politics . I t would be very after the election, wrote, "In the political story of the hard for the Republicans to decade, voters swept out Democrat incumbents all across America. Power was purged.... Nowhere establish a monopoly like was this more dramatic than in North Carolina, the Democrats where the House was captured outright for the first enjoyed...." time since Reconstruction."' In 1987, the N.C. Center for Public Policy -DEWEY GRANTHAM Research released its report The Two-Party System PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT in North Carolina: Do We Have One? And What VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY AND Does It Mean? The report found that, "A state AUTHOROF THE SOUTH IN dominated by Democrats since the turn of the cen- MODERN AMERICA SEPTEMBER 1995 83 ". ., Many North Carolina whites have lost their commitment to the Democratic party but have not yet transferred their loyalty to the Republicans." REP. PAUL LUEBKE(D-DURHAM) ther political party, cannot easily see how they di- rectly benefit from state government policies that are passed by the Democratic majority, they will vote against the Democrats."11 Luebke says, "That's what happened in the 1994 election." It is one of the reasons he has pushed hard in the 1995 session for to win their elections.
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