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Kordia Group 1 Kordia EQUITY RESEARCH – New Zealand ANALYST FIRST NZ CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED IS A NZX FIRM Gregory Main CFA +64 4 474 4061 [email protected] 31 October 2011 A valuation perspective PG 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Recent Performance.................................................................................................................................................................................3 Earnings Outlook ......................................................................................................................................................................................3 Base Case Valuation .................................................................................................................................................................................3 Comparison to Listed Market Peers .........................................................................................................................................................3 COMPANY BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................................ 4 Kordia Networks.......................................................................................................................................................................................5 Kordia Solutions .......................................................................................................................................................................................5 KS Australia...............................................................................................................................................................................................5 KS New Zealand (KS NZ) ...........................................................................................................................................................................6 Orcon ........................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Kordia Corporate ......................................................................................................................................................................................6 COMPANY PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................................................................... 7 Kordia Outlook – From Broadcast to Broadband and up the value chain.............................................................................................8 Earnings Model ............................................................................................................................................................... 9 Earnings Estimates....................................................................................................................................................................................9 Cash Flow Estimates ...............................................................................................................................................................................11 Balance Sheet .........................................................................................................................................................................................12 Valuation ASSUMPTIONS ADOPTED .............................................................................................................................. 13 General Assumptions..............................................................................................................................................................................13 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION .......................................................................................................................... 13 Cost of Capital Assumptions - Rf, Beta ...................................................................................................................................................13 Summary of DCF Valuation ....................................................................................................................................................................14 COMPARISON OF DCF VALUATION WITH MARKET BASED MULTIPLES ........................................................................... 14 Peer Company Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................................................14 Kordia Solutions .....................................................................................................................................................................................15 Orcon ......................................................................................................................................................................................................16 Kordia Networks.....................................................................................................................................................................................17 Kordia Group ..........................................................................................................................................................................................17 Valuation Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................................................18 PG 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recent Performance Kordia increased FY11 revenue by 14% to $294.5mn but EBITDA declined by 1% to $51.5m as Kordia’s transition from a broadcast transmission centric business to a company focused on broadband, communications and transmission moves is nearly complete and moves to the next phase. Kordia recognised an impairment charge of $21m post tax as it reduced the value of its broadcast assets due to the earlier switchover to digital transmission of television services than previously planned. This impending change has been the catalyst for Kordia to diversify its business over the past 5 to 6 years and expand into telecommunication and network consulting services. Earnings Outlook The impact of the digital switchover, expected to impact Kordia’s operating earnings by circa $10m, negatively weighs on Kordia’s operating earnings outlook to FY14. To offset this earnings impact, Kordia Solutions Australia is experiencing good demand for its services, Orcon continues to expand its revenue and Kordia is expanding its telecommunications offering. Thus while we forecast relatively flat EBITDA to FY13 and a decline in FY14 to $47mn from $53mn in FY13, we expect earnings to recover relatively quickly thereafter as the growth momentum in other parts of the business continues. We expect some compression in the EBITDA margin to occur over this period given the change in business mix. Base Case Valuation Given the different divisions which Kordia operates we have valued Kordia using a sum of the parts approach. While Kordia discloses divisional revenues in its result and Statement of Corporate Intent (SCI) it does not disclose any other divisional details. As such we have had to assume a breakdown between the divisions that has increased the subjectivity of the valuation. We have derived an enterprise valuation for Kordia Group of $215mn and an equity valuation of $137mn. Figure 1: Kordia Group DCF valuation summary $m WACC applied Valuation of Kordia Networks 76 9.9% Valuation of Kordia Solutions Aust 79 10.5% Valuation of Kordia Solutions NZ 11 10.6% Valuation of Orcon 59 12.6% Corporate Overhead adjustment (9) Enterprise valuation 215 Net Debt 78 Equity valuation 137 Source: Company data, FNZC estimates Our assessed valuation is toward the upper end of the range as stated in Kordia’s SCI for an enterprise valuation of $165mn to $221mn. The Board concluded that given current economic conditions a valuation range of $185mn to $200mn was reasonable. We note any payment Kordia may have received from Telecom NZ as part of a recent regulatory settlement would increase our valuation. Comparison to Listed Market Peers We have used listed industry peers to benchmark our divisional forecasts and as a basis to assessing how Kordia could be valued if it were a listed entity to provide a comparative value to our DCF assessed valuation. We believe it is likely Kordia would trade at a discount to our DCF assessed value if it were a listed entity. This discount would reflect current market conditions and where industry peers are currently trading. Further we expect a discount to our DCF valuation would apply until there is evidence of Kordia’s ability to execute with regard to growing its telecommunications earnings and managing its DSO decline and historic transmission business. PG 3 COMPANY BACKGROUND Kordia has its origins as the transmission operation for TVNZ which was put into a separate company in 2002 with the business focused around broadcast transmission services and the maintenance
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