FUTURE MOBILITY Special Report
Driverless cars and electric vehicles: Berlin: A city with a clear vision Interview with Sébastien Buemi: The trends shaping mobility. for urban mobility. The Formula E driver talks shop.
THE MOBILITY REVOLUTION
Flying taxis and fleets of driverless vehicles may not be a common sight just yet. But mobility as we know it is currently at a crossroads that is set to dramatically change how we get from A to B in the not too distant future.
he more than one billion cars Championship, with which Julius It is impossible to predict ex- on the road worldwide are Baer has partnered closely since actly where the changes we are wit- clogging our streets and the very first race back in 2014, are nessing in mobility will take us, but cities, giving rise to endless also helping to boost the popularity it is safe to say that technology is traffic jams and a chronic of these vehicles. set to make mobility cleaner, safer, Tlack of parking – daily headaches We believe that the true mo- and more accessible for everyone. experienced by many that cost the bility revolution, however, will take global economy billions every year. place in the autonomous driving Even more pressing, however, is the segment. Early predictions foresaw damage that these vehicles are un- these vehicles quickly becoming leashing on our health and the en- mainstream. Instead, we are seeing vironment. Mobility must therefore a somewhat delayed emergence change – and quickly. thereof, and primarily in niche seg- At Julius Baer, we are con- ments such as slow-speed shuttles vinced that this combination of and delivery vehicles. These niche factors means the future of mobili- applications are opening up oppor- ty is electric. For us, it is not a ques- tunities for exciting and entirely tion of if, but at what pace electric new services and markets. vehicles (EVs) will spread and even- In this report, we take a closer Norbert Rücker tually replace the traditional inter- look at the future of mobility, not Head of Economics & nal combustion engine vehicle. Al- only on land, but also in the air. Next Generation Research Julius Baer though EVs currently account for We explore how cities are adjusting only 3.5 per cent of global car sales, their transport models to accom- this is set to change as driving modate new, cleaner alternatives ranges increase, charging infrastruc- for their citizens and the environ- tures expand, and buyers have more ment, and how shared mobility ser- models to choose from. Initiatives vices are revolutionising the way such as the ABB FIA Formula E people get around.
Future Mobility 1 INSIGHTS
What’s going on in the markets? Which mega- trends impact your portfolio? And how can you connect the dots of your personal wealth? INSIGHTS, our digital thought leadership hub, provides answers.
www.juliusbaer.com/en/insights
IMPRINT
Publisher: Julius Baer Group Ltd. Photo Credits Editor-in-Chief: Corene Sullivan Front cover: Klaus Vedfelt Art Direction and Editorial Design: C3 Schweiz AG Pages 4–9: Saddington Baynes Proofreading: Supertext AG Pages 12–13: Shivraj Gohil / Spacesuit Media Image Editing: RTK Medientechnik AG Pages 14–15: Lou Johnson / Spacesuit Media Print: WOHLER Druck AG Page 16: Bettmann / Contributor Page 18 from left to right: Science Museum (The British Railway For more information about Julius Baer please visit: www.juliusbaer.com Locomotive, HMSO), via Wikimedia Commons; Unknown, © Julius Baer Group, 2020 via Wikimedia Commons; Unknown, via Wikimedia Commons Page 19 from left to right: JVillemard, via Wikimedia Commons; The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) is an independent non-profit JVillemard, via Wikimedia Commons; Nantucket Historical Association, organisation that promotes responsible forest management throughout Nantucket, US, via Wikimedia Commons (1918); NASA the world. Julius Baer cares for the environment and this publication Page 20 from left to right: America’s Electric Light and Power Companies; was therefore printed exclusively on FSC-certified paper and with Mike Lynch Cartoons. Painting by Fred Freeman (1906–1988) 100% renewable energy by WOHLER Druck AG (climate-neutral in Page 21 from left to right: Sunset Boulevard; cooperation with Foundation myclimate). jmortonphoto.com & otogodfrey.com Page 22: Hinterhaus Productions Page 23: Jean-François Page 24: Adam Berry Page 25: Ulrich Baumgarten neutral 01-19-172135 Printed Matter myclimate.org Pages 26–33: Shivraj Gohil / Spacesuit Media Page 33 bottom: Lou Johnson / Spacesuit Media Page 34: Matthieu Bourgois Pages 35–38: Thomas Eugster Page 40: e-volo GmbH Page 42: Volocopter; Nikolay Kazakov Page 43: Nikolay Kazakov Page 44: Sergio Mendoza Hochmann Pages 45–46: Scott McNamara Page 48: Didier Marti Page 49: Paulus Rusyanto Page 50: JOKO SL; Creativa Images Page 51: imagean
2 Future Mobility CONTENTS
4 Here comes the revolution 34 Champion and challenger: An in-depth look at the tranformation taking Two racing teams profiled place in personal mobility. Engineering students put their skills to the test in the Formula Student racing series. 10 Infographic: Making mobility move again Four major trends that are changing mobility 40 Urban mobility takes flight as we know it. Volocopter, the fully electric air taxi, is ready for take-off. 12 Sébastien Buemi: The high-voltage racer 44 Econduce: Sustainable mobility The Formula E driver talks about his career in Mexico City highlights and the future of mobility. Going green in the Latin American megacity with electric scooters. 16 10 mobility predictions that were dead wrong Some of the most preposterous ideas ever put 48 Changing gears in Jakarta forward about how people will get around in The metropolis is taking major steps to create the future. an efficient and sustainable urban transport system. 22 No car? No problem! Berlin is leading the charge when it comes to 52 Important legal information new urban mobility solutions.
26 Pioneering moments Key moments in Formula E’s history captured by photographer Shivraj Gohil.
Future Mobility 3 HERE
THE RE
4 Future Mobility COMES
Today’s car is on its way out. Petroleum fuels are yielding to electricity, private automobiles are being replaced by ‘mobility services’. Most importantly, human drivers are giving way to robots. Personal mobility, as we know it, will be radically transformed.
Author: Eric Johnson
VOLUTION
Future Mobility 5 t had to be Elon Musk, didn’t it? In November 2019, The message couldn’t be any clearer: the future of the serial entrepreneur, who has revolutionised one automobiles is electric. Moreover, it is just one part of industry after another, delivered to a conference the coming revolution in mobility that will continue of German automakers his latest sensation. Ever far beyond electrification. Let’s take a closer look. the showman, Musk theatrically revealed that his I company Tesla will soon be building cars just outside Mobility’s not moving Berlin. Electric cars, that is, right in the home and As most of us know first-hand, today’s transport has heartland of the internal combustion engine. its fair share of problems. So did the great and the good of Germany’s auto Gridlock is misery. Traffic jams waste time and en- manufacturers scoff at the outsized ambition and po- ergy. And more places are becoming more miserable – tential threat of this South African-born, American- world traffic keeps getting worse, say statistics from bred upstart? Hardly. The hall rang with cheers from TomTom, a company that monitors roads globally. auto bosses as the CEO of Volkswagen, the world’s Congestion in Western Europe, estimates a similar largest producer of conventional cars, hailed Musk as a company called Inrix, annually costs an average motor- pioneer, thanking him “for pulling, for pushing” electri- ist nearly USD 1,000 worth of time and money. Car fication. The very next day, subsidiary VW America’s pollution is problematic, too. Breathing urban air can CEO called electric vehicles “the future of mobility.” be similar to smoking cigarettes, aggravating lung ailments and even contributing to cancer. Smog also defaces property – just look at the blackened buildings in some inner cities. In the United Kingdom, for exam- ple, it causes hundreds of millions of pounds in prop- erty damage every year.
6 Future Mobility This is prodding some cities to sideline cars. Berlin, Electrified drive for example (see page 22), aims to eliminate private EVs have been welcomed by many governments with automobiles altogether. Other places are also head- subsidies, exemptions from taxes and fees, privileged ing in that direction, starting with eventual bans on parking and driving, and free recharging. This booster- conventional internal combustion vehicles. France, ism has ramped electrics’ sales from almost zero in Germany, Norway, and Sweden aim to phase them out 2010 to nearly 3 million in 2019. That’s only a bit less by 2030/2040. China’s province of Hainan is moving than 4 per cent of all cars, but the slope is steep. Julius right alongside: its phaseout will finish in 2030. This Baer expects that by 2025, EVs will capture up to 10 is red meat, of course, to Elon Musk and his fellow per cent of global auto purchases. electrifiers. Their coming growth will still be government- Electric vehicles (EVs) fix tailpipe pollution, be- helped, but the Bank expects the main magnet will be cause they have no tailpipe. They don’t solve gridlock the interest of ordinary motorists. This will bloom as it in the short term, but in the longer term, they will help. dawns on buyers that electrics are not just affordable, they can actually be cheaper than conventional cars. Yes, EVs tend to cost more at the dealership, but elec- tricity is priced far lower than petrol or diesel, and en- gines use it more efficiently. Moreover, electrics cost less to maintain: this seems obvious, considering that a typical combustion car’s drivetrain has 1,400 com- ponents while an EV’s has only 200. The message couldn’t Hop on board! be any clearer: the Meanwhile, we’re starting to see a redefinition of pub- lic transport, with the rise of what’s called ‘mobility future of automobiles services’. Not your typical bus, train, or tram following a set timetable, but ‘rides’ shared or rented on an indi- is electric. vidual scale.
Future Mobility 7 Ride-hailing – such as offered by Uber, Didi, Ola, and Lyft – was the first mobility service to tap public consciousness. Today, nearly a billion people worldwide make regular use of it. Essentially, this is a taxi opera- tion, except usually cheaper and more convenient. Then along came shared cars, which now number 1.5 million. These are parked near to their users, who hire them periodically at less cost and with more ease A dominance of than a conventional rental car. Alongside car services have come bike services: for-hire bicycles that quickly self-driving is unlikely became ubiquitous in the major cities of Europe, China, and the US. Piling in on the trend are bat- before 2040. tery-powered scooters – like the un-motorised ones that children propel with one leg – they too are for hire in cities around the world. The boom in mobility services is driven by two factors. The first is technology: without smartphones (and smart batteries in scooters), it could not happen. Second is cost: the average car spends 95 per cent of its time just sitting there. Add in traffic jams, scarce Auto-autos parking, and registration hassle – and soon the ex- The ultimate solution, and not just to bike/scooter- pense of a hail or share looks trivial. This is especially clog but mobility in general, is self-driving vehicles. true in pricey cities, which lead in both supply and de- These combine the benefits of electrification (fuel mand of mobility services. efficiency, reduced maintenance, and no tailpipe emis- There are side effects, both positive and ne ga- sions) with those of mobility services (shared costs tive. A thumbs-up comes from China: 1) short- dis- and less congestion). A bonus comes on top: we get tance car journeys in Beijing and Shanghai have rid of lousy drivers! Poor human driving accounts for dropped since the advent of bike sharing; 2) Shenzhen an estimated 94 per cent of serious accidents. And says its rental bikes have displaced 10 per cent of car they slow the flow: one study states that if all drivers travel and 13 per cent of gasoline consumption. Less were robots, fuel demand would fall by one-quarter, positive news comes from such cities as Amsterdam just because traffic would move smoothly. and Zurich: rental bikes and scooters can clog public The upshot is a huge drop in cost. If auto-autos spaces, particularly those meant for pedestrians. were shared for local transport, estimates a study from Columbia University’s Earth Institute, full costs per distance driven could be reduced five to tenfold. This heralds a golden age of robo-mobility. Self-driving cars that transport – with less congestion and cost – more people, including those currently immobilised by disability, age, or lack of funds. Who needs a private car if instead there are ‘universal taxis’ that are inex- pensive, safe, and easy? That new world will take time in coming. A domi- nance of self-driving is unlikely before 2040. Robots have a long way to go in mastering the ‘last mile’ of driving: bad roads, poor signage, walkers, bikers, and harsh weather. A new system of liability – who bears the costs (and how) in case of accidents – still needs to be worked out. Nonetheless, many insiders expect a broad presence of autonomous autos in dealer show- rooms by 2030.
8 Future Mobility Julius Baer is of the view that cyber-driven vehi- We are the revolutionaries cles will advance not in a big bang, but rather niche- As these trends show, mobility in 20 years is likely to by-niche. Robo-taxis have already debuted in Singa- be very different than today. The biggest change to pore and Phoenix. Self-driving shuttles are active in come might be in our mindsets – realising that trans- warehouses as well as in some slow-speed, off-road port can be done differently. This wouldn’t be the first areas (such as hospitals and other campus-style insti- time we’ve been disrupted: smartphones, for example, tutions). Truckers are automating parts of their jour- took over from ‘dumb phones’ only a decade ago, and neys, especially predictable pieces like motorways. now they’re everywhere, doing everything. Even private cars are part of the trend: it started with Although many details are still unclear, the rise anti-skid braking, went on to assisted parking, and now of electrification, mobility services, and autonomy are some models offer ‘the full robot’ (although the hu- inevitable. As one keen observer puts it, any future man passenger/driver must remain ready to take over, transport system without these “will be about as use- if necessary). ful as a horse.” That observer? It had to be – and of course it is – none other than Elon Musk.
The biggest change to come might be in our mindsets – realising that transport can be done differently.
Future Mobility 9 MAKING MOBILITY MOVE AGAIN
Laid-back motoring is so 20th century – in cities, at least. Today’s urban centres are too often clogged with cars and their exhaust fumes. Four major trends are contributing to a re-mobilisation of personal transport.
Collision stress
Approx. 1.35 million people die each year due to road accidents. Source: WHO
tomorrow’s Today’s solutions. problems …
Congestion
Major world cities where the average commuter spent Nearly 4 million pre- the most hours in congestion in 2018. mature deaths per year Air pollution are caused by pollution. Most vulnerable are Road transport accounts for the elderly, very young, some 15–25% of emissions. Key and poor with ailments pollutants are nitric oxides, such as asthma and unburnt hydrocarbons, and soot. 15–25% 272 254 246 237 227 226 223 218 210 emphysema. Damages Source: WHO á to buildings amount
Rome Paris Milan to billions of dollars Bogot Dublin Rostov-on-Don London Bordeaux annually. Mexico City Source: Statista
10 Future Mobility Rise of mobility services
Ride hailing: 1 billion users of services such as Uber, Didi, Ola, and Lyft.
Car sharing: 1.5 million cars operated by companies such as Mobility.
Bike and scooter sharing/rental offered by city governments and by private operators such as Bird, Lime, and Tier. Self-driving vehicles Source: Julius Baer Safer and cheaper than cars today. Niche-by-niche growth: robo-taxis, off-road shuttles, long-haul trucking, specific functions. Dominance unlikely before 2040. Source: Julius Baer
tomorrow’s Today’s solutions. problems …
Electric vehicles % new-car sales Restrictions on cars 30 4% of European new car sales in 2019, up from zero a decade 20 Berlin: private cars to be ago. Rising to 7–9% by 2030 10 eliminated. France, Germany, and 15–27% by 2040. 0 Source: Julius Baer Norway, Sweden, Hainan 2009 2019 2030 2040 (China) to phase out internal combustion vehicles. China is the largest market: in 2019, 6% of new Source: Atlantic Consulting sales, or 1.6 million cars. Total cost is less than 1.6 m that of conventional cars. Source: Julius Baer
Future Mobility 11 SÉBASTIEN BUEMI
Formula E is now in its sixth season – and Sébastien Buemi has been part of the all-electric championship since the very first race. The 31-year-old Swiss is also the driver with the most E-Prix victories under his belt. In a recent interview, the e-racing pioneer talked to Julius Baer about his Formula E career and reflected on the future of mobility.
Interview: Andreas Thomann
12 Future Mobility t isn’t uncommon for certain character traits to skip Buemi recalls. “Sometimes she was quicker, some- a generation. Georges Gachnang’s passion for rac- times I was.” While Natacha left motorsport in 2010, ing is one such example. The owner of a garage in after having competed in Formula Two and the GT1 the Swiss town of Aigle, who in the 1960s com- World Championship, her cousin made it all the way peted in several prestigious car races such as the to Formula One, where he drove for the Toro Rosso I24 Hours of Le Mans, witnessed two of his grandchil- team for three seasons, and finally to Le Mans, where dren grow up with the same passion for speed as their he claimed victory in 2018 and again in 2019, almost granddad. First it was Natacha, who at the young 60 years after his grandfather had hit the track there. age of five drove her first laps in a go-kart. About a Le Mans may have marked his biggest victory to year later, her younger cousin Sébastien followed suit: date, but history books will probably remember him “When the two of us started go-karting, my grand- better as the most successful driver in the early years father was actually against it,” remembers Sébastien of Formula E, where he scooped up a world champion- Buemi. “He had lost many friends to motorsport, so he ship title and three second-place finishes in the first was not that keen on us embarking on a racing career. five seasons. Buemi is a true pioneer who has become But he very quickly became a big fan.” a passionate ambassador of this game-changing series. The cousins both climbed the ranks of motor- We met Sébastien last October in Valencia, at the sport, even competing for a couple of years in the same Formula E pre-season tests, to hear first-hand how series – the German Formula BMW. “That was actually electric race cars are changing mobility. very good, because we were pushing each other,”
THE HIGH- VOLTAGE RACER
Future Mobility 13 Sébastien, do you remember how it felt the first time you jumped into an electric race car? That was in Donington, in the UK, in the first official test for the 2014/2015 season. Sitting in that car for the first time felt really good. I was really impressed by the performance we had with the 200 kW in the qualification mode. And since then, the performance has improved year by year.
What about the noise levels compared to a combustion engine? It was quite weird, actually. As soon as you exceed 100 kilometres per Buemi on the podium with his son after his 2019 third-place finish at the Julius Baer Swiss E-Prix in Bern. hour, all you hear is the wind. But it took me only three laps to get used to it.
Why did you decide to join this How big was the changeover it becomes very hard to keep up new series in the first place? from Formula One? the motivation. That happened in I was approached by Jean-Paul The main difference to any other the last season, where we had a lot Driot, the founder of the Renault series is the energy management of bad luck. In such a situation, you e.dams team, who sadly passed during the race. You don’t only have to keep working hard, know- away a couple of months ago. At have to be fast and push your car ing that it will pay off in the end. that time, I was racing in the to the limit. You also have to be And it did. At the end of the sea- En durance Championship, where I smart in saving and recovering en- son, I secured four podium finishes didn’t have many races. So I thought: ergy in order to finish the race. in a row, and I finished second in why not try Formula E? I loved the Finding the right balance is quite the championship. idea of racing in cities, but to be challenging. honest, I was also sceptical. Fortu- What has been your sweetest nately, the races turned out to be Since the start of the series, victory so far in Formula E? very entertaining from the very be- you have won 13 races and have That was probably at the end of ginning. finished on the podium in 12 the last season, when I won in New other races – more than any York. Our team head, Jean-Paul Did you foresee the dramatic other driver. How important is Driot, couldn’t attend because he growth of the series in only winning for you? was already in critical condition. So five years? Sometimes, I have the impression that victory was really for him. And I had no idea how the championship that it has become a bit too impor- it ended a dry spell of more than would evolve. Obviously, I expected tant. It is very difficult for me to two years during which I didn’t win it to get better every season. But I enjoy if I don’t win. That can be a anything. didn’t expect to see so many of the positive thing, because it constantly big manufacturers like Porsche, pushes me to improve, it pushes How important has Formula E Mercedes, BMW, or Audi getting the team. But when you’re having a become in promoting on board so quickly. difficult season and you don’t win, e-mobility?
14 Future Mobility strongest. Cities such as London, “I thought: why not try Paris, Berlin, or Zurich are very much pushing for electric mobility Formula E? I loved the idea – not only cars, but also other means of transport like bikes, scoot- of racing in cities.” ers, or buses. And the rest of the world will follow soon.
You have two little kids. Do you think they will even drive a car when they are old enough We cannot overstate its impor- they are the better option. Of course, to do so? tance. Until recently, many people technology needs to improve even I think they will – most probably an refrained from buying an electric further, especially the battery ca- electric car. I don’t expect driverless car because they were worried pacity and weight. And we need to cars to proliferate that quickly. But about the limited range, the relia- be able to produce enough energy who knows? Again, technology might bility, the performance, or the aes- to sustain that shift. But that’s just change faster than we expect. thetics. Formula E shows them that a matter of time. electric cars can drive fast and far Will they drive a race car? while looking cool. You spend a lot of time trav- I don’t know, to be honest. I’m not elling the world. Which cities going to push them, but I’m not What is your personal vision do you think are making the going to stop them either if they when it comes to future greatest headway in terms of want to do it. I’d rather try to sup- mobility? future mobility? port them in the best way I can. I’d I am very confident that in the next I would say that Europe is ahead feel bad if one day they look back 10 years, we will see a big shift to- of the curve, just because the regu- and regret their decision. So let’s wards electric cars – simply because lations on CO2 emissions are the see what the future brings.
Buemi celebrates after clinching a win at the New York City E-Prix in 2019.
Future Mobility 15 ‘Rocket Man’ Peter Kedzierski flies over the entrance of the California State Fair in 1964.
16 Future Mobility 10 MOBILITY PREDICTIONS THAT WERE DEAD WRONG
Humans are curious by nature. For decades, or even millennia, we have wanted to know what the future has in store for us. From undersea colonies to declaring automobiles a fad, here are some of the most interesting mobility predictions that would later prove false. At times, hilariously false.
Author: Nuria McCrea-Grifoll
Future Mobility 17 Built by Richard Trevithick in 1802, the Coalbrookdale Locomotive was the world’s first full-scale working railway steam locomotive.
In the early 1900s, a German company published images of how the world could look in the year 2000. Visionary artwork or just an attention- grabbing ad campaign?
aking predictions about 1823 Early 1900s the future is not limited Rail travel and high speed A German company’s take to great minds or repu- 1 won’t ever mix well 2 on the future of mobility table publications. Any- Before we had cars, planes, and At the beginning of the 20th cen- body can take a guess at space shuttles, there were trains. tury, the German confectionery Mwhat the future might look like, es- Rather slow trains, we might add, company Hildebrand Kakao- und pecially when it relates to a topic as the maximum speed in 1830 was Schokoladenfabrik GmbH took a that is so pertinent to everybody’s 48 km/h (30 mph). It comes as no stab at predicting the future in daily lives: mobility. For centuries, surprise then, that Dr Dionysius an advertising campaign. The ads people have wondered whether we Lardner, a professor of natural phi- showed what they envisaged the will find better, faster, or more ex- losophy and astronomy, did not world would look like in a hundred citing ways to travel. We have deem high-speed trains that carry years’ time. Walking on water with asked ourselves how to overcome passengers safely to be feasible: the help of ski-like footwear, am- distances and boundaries. And we “Rail travel at high speed is not pos- phibious trains (‘railway boats’), have envisaged living on other sible, because passengers, unable to and individualised flying machines planets. Are predictions only lucky breathe, would die of asphyxia.” If for everyone were just some of the guesses? Hindsight is 20/20, but it only he could see that nowadays, company’s visions of mobility. can be entertaining to look back on the maximum operating speed of a what was once predicted for the Japanese bullet train is 320 km/h future of mobility. (200 mph) – and passengers seem to be coping just fine.
18 Future Mobility Astronaut Edwin E. ‘Buzz’ Aldrin Jr. poses Initially created for the 1900 world exhibition beside the deployed United States flag in Paris, a series of postcards depicted the world during Apollo 11 extravehicular activity on as imagined in 2000. the lunar surface.
Clinton Folger’s ‘Horsemobile’ delivering mail, on South Beach Street, at Hayden’s Bath House entrance, Nantucket, US.
Early 1900s 1903 1920 French artists’ futuristic Horses vs Space travel was out 3 predictions for 2000 4 automobiles 5 of the question At around the same time that the “The horse is here to stay but the In 1920, a ‘New York Times’ article German ad campaign was running, automobile is only a novelty – a completely dismissing the possibil- several French artists created a se- fad.” The President of the Michigan ity of space travel stated: “A rocket ries of futuristic pictures that were Savings Bank did not know that in will never be able to leave the Earth’s initially enclosed in cigarette boxes the future, it would be exactly the atmosphere: after the rocket quits and were later sold as postcards. other way around: seeing a horse- our air and really starts on its longer Flying taxis – so-called aero cabs – drawn carriage these days is some- journey, its flight would be neither with corresponding docking sta- what of a novelty. Fortunately, Henry accelerated nor maintained by the tions were one of the predictions. Ford’s lawyer didn’t listen to this explosion of the charges it then An even more bizarre prediction advice and invested USD 5,000 in might have left.” When the Apollo was the whale bus, a submarine the newly formed motor company. 11 headed to the moon in 1969, the pulled by a whale. It looks like these The initial investment quickly turned paper issued a retraction of its orig- artists were pretty optimistic about into USD 12.5 million. inal article. Rightly so. our future whale-taming skills.
Future Mobility 19 In 1956, the Central Power and Light Company ran this inspired advertisement of a self-driving car in leading US newspapers.
A prediction from ‘Reader’s Digest’ of what life might look like in 1999.
Installation of a colony on the moon: at the 1964 World’s Fair in New York, visitors could hop on a ride to learn about General Motors’ vision of the future.
1939 1964 1966 Cars without Colonies on the moon, and ‘Reader’s Digest’ book 6 drivers 7 other visionary scenarios 8 predicts life in 1999 We are almost there, but not quite: Will we be living in colonies on the Moving sidewalks, climate-con- the prediction of the self-driving moon or underwater by 2024? trolled cities, and rocket belts ena- car has been on the table for al- Highly unlikely. Sponsored by Gen- bling people to fly: in 1966, ‘Read- most 80 years. And while cars are eral Motors and presented at the er’s Digest’ wooed readers with its undoubtedly getting smarter and New York World’s Fair of 1964, the spectacular vision of the future. A better, the day we buy a self-driv- Futurama 2 exhibition and ride section titled ‘When You Grow Up’ ing car is a lot further away than we showcased a possible vision of the explained in great detail what life probably think. An exhibitor’s pre- world 60 years into the future. might be like in 1999. It also proph- diction at the 1939 World’s Fair in Aquacopters and lunar rovers were esied high-speed transport – so at New York was not wildly wrong, but just two of the futuristic vehicles least one of the predictions came our expressways are not filled with that were featured in the undersea true. cars controlled by radio from a cen- and moon sets. Equally interesting tral tower, as they had envisaged it. was the idea that by 2024, we would At least not for now. be spending our holidays at Hotel Atlantis, at the bottom of the sea.
20 Future Mobility The DeLorean flying car and time machine from the movie ‘Back to the Future’.
British actress Margaret Tyzack on the set of ‘2001: A Space Odyssey’, written and directed by Stanley Kubrick.
1968 1989 aking predictions is in Space travel to become Flying cars should be our nature. Whether 9 the norm by 2001 10 the norm by now they are self-fulfilling The film industry has never shied Let’s stay with the Hollywood prophesies, lucky pun- away from predicting what the fu- theme: when Marty McFly and Doc ches, or well-thought- ture might hold for us. Some films Brown time-travelled from 1989’s Mout theories, people will always have done a better job of this than ‘Back to the Future Part II’ to save wonder what the future could look others – but the ones that got it the future Marty in 2015, flying like next year, in a decade, or a cen- wrong at least captivated their au- cars and skateboards – the famous tury. Especially people like tech dience with entertaining – albeit hoverboard – were some of the mogul Elon Musk. He predicts that ludicrous – visions of the future. main means of transport. What at his space company will take a mil- For example, Stanley Kubrick’s the time seemed for many people lion people to Mars by the end of ‘2001: A Space Odyssey’, which to be a prediction about the distant the century. Where will they work suggested that by the 21st century, future is now already several years and live? In a self-sustaining city, space travel and moon colonies in the past. And there are, as yet, of course. What do you think: will would be part of our everyday life. no flying cars or air skateboards in this bold prediction turn out to be sight. At all. wildly wrong or spot on?
Future Mobility 21 NO CAR?
NO PROBLEM!
22 Future Mobility Germany’s capital, Berlin, is planning a huge innovation: to eliminate private automobiles. Not by force, but by providing alternative mobility solutions such that people don’t want or need cars. Berlin’s public transport authority BVG is a key player.
Author: Eric Johnson
Future Mobility 23 Berlin senator for the environment, Regine Günther, Berlin senator for the economy, Ramona Pop, federal transport and digital infra- structure minister, Andreas Scheuer, CEO BVG, Sigrid Nikutta, and federal environment minister, Svenja Schulze (from left to right), at a presentation of the electric buses to be deployed by BVG in Berlin.
ould you go a month without using your car? Get rid of cars?! Marc Brüggemann did, along with other Eliminating private cars in Berlin packs a conceptual Berliners in June of 2018. Instead of getting punch. Germany is arguably the birthplace of automo- around in his trusty Toyota, the 22-year-old biles. The country’s Autobahns have, in principle, no aspiring marketing manager used other means speed limits. Germans are known for their interest in Cof transportation: ride sharing, car sharing, rental scoot- automotive technology and pride in their ride. But this ers, bus, tram, and train, not to mention an (also trusty) has its downsides. Traffic deaths, including those of bicycle he already owned. To prevent any possible cheat- pedestrians and cyclists. Stalled traffic is another head- ing, he agreed to keep his Toyota parked at a remote ache. Exhaust fumes are damaging. Finally, there is garage for the entire time. the issue of space. Car infrastructure – streets and Not that he paused driving out of pure selfless- parking – occupies 20–30 per cent of major European ness. For that month, his travel was free, paid for by cities’ land areas. an ongoing programme called ‘Summer Fleet’, spon- sored among others by Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe (BVG), Berlin’s public transport authority. Summer Fleet’s main aim is to show that, yes, ordinary Berliners can live without a car. And the premise was confirmed: as Brüggemann told news magazine Spiegel, the ex- “We want people to perience “opened my eyes to what I actually already knew: I don’t need my car.” So it’s true – life in Berlin get rid of their autos.” without a private automobile is possible. Regine Günther And if the Berlin government has its way, it will be done. “We want people to get rid of their autos,” states Regine Günther, who among the city’s eight rul- ing senators oversees transport. Welcome to Berlin’s innovative, carless version of future mobility.
24 Future Mobility Fortunately for Berlin, there are numerous motorists No sweat who would consider throwing away their keys. Some, In the past two years, BVG has backed several projects such as Martin Burt, a 59-year-old father living in the (including Summer Fleet) to draw drivers away from Klausenerplatz district, don’t like driving anyway. “If the wheel. The top headliners are: there were a car share parking spot within 50 metres of my flat, I would get rid of my car,” says the 8,000-km- per-year Opel driver. Then there are those such as Marc Brüggemann, who are keen to reduce their cost One-stop transport shop: Jelbi of mobility. Altogether, says a 2017 study by the Insti- You need to get from A to B. Wouldn’t it be nice to have an aid to tell you how to get there by tute for Transport Studies, nearly half of German driv- all possible means? Bus, tram, car share, kick- ers might be incentivised to give up their wheels. board – you name it. Oh, and then that aid would So Berlin is focused on doing just that: urging its not only book your journey, but also handle tick- eting and payment. Since mid-2019, Berlin has residents to ditch their cars. Leading and coordinating that aid – in the form of a smartphone app called the innovation is the city’s bus/tram/train operator, Jelbi, which has been downloaded by some BVG. One of BVG’s main missions, a spokesman con- 60,000 Berliners. It is unusual for a state-owned transport company to help its private competi- firms, “is to offer an alternative to the automobile.” tors, but BVG counters that an all-in-one app is How to do that: make public transport easier to use key to bringing travellers onto the public trans- port network – and it is steadily recruiting more than private cars. providers. Next up are the capital’s taxis.
Is it working? Ride-pooling: Berlkönig Statistics on Berlin’s success or failure are still thin on A bus is too inconvenient. A taxi costs too much. Hmmm – how about Berlkönig? Since 2018, the ground. BVG says it will take years to demonstrate the BVG-backed company has been sending the effectiveness of the innovations. Still, there is at six-seater minivans (now numbering around 160) around the city, around the clock, to provide an least one convert already, and he definitely expects ‘on-demand’ shuttle service. Passengers tell their an incentive. After his Summer Fleet experience, Marc smartphones (e.g. via Jelbi) that they are at A, Brüggemann says he would willingly go carless, but aiming to go to B. Berlkönig software matches them up with vans on the street to make it hap- under a key condition: that he be granted a free, life- pen. Users need to make some concessions: time pass for local journeys. in most cases, they must walk 100–200 metres to a pick-up point, wait 5–10 minutes, and they absolutely need to be on time, or the van will drive on. But the value for the price – typically EUR 4 a pop – is attractive enough to have drawn more than a million rides in the first year of operations.
Digital steward If I push myself to the upper deck of the bus, will there be a seat free? (Yes, Berlin has double- deckers.) Is there any space on the incoming metro, and if so, in which carriage? BVG has re- cently launched a platform signage system to let waiting passengers know. It’s powered by robotics that scan the vehicles for available capacity.
Driverless buses (but not yet trains) They have been described as ‘cool boxes on wheels’, but the driverless buses at Berlin’s Charité hospital boost transport capacity around its four enormous campuses. Driverless buses are possible, because they move slowly in a pre- defined, 3.5-km course with 26 stops. So far, critically, no accidents, although occasionally, a few of the buses have gone ‘on strike’. BVG says its trains and metros are for now too com- plex and varied for robot drivers, but in time it hopes to introduce them on quieter streets in A passenger boards one of the driverless minibuses being outlying areas, particularly near the end- stations tested for use on public roads in Berlin’s Tegel district. of its trains.
Future Mobility 25 The driver line-up for the first-ever Formula E race, Beijing Olympic Park, 2014.
PIONEERING MOMENTS
The idea for Formula E was born during a conversation between FIA President Jean Todt and Spanish businessman Alejandro Agag in Paris in 2011. And just a few years later, their vision came to life: in 2014, the ABB FIA Formula E Championship series was launched with the inaugural E-Prix in Beijing. Over the next few pages, we take a look through the lens of photographer Shivraj Gohil at some of the series’ pioneering moments.
26 Future Mobility Nicolas Prost takes to the track, Monaco, 2015. Lucas di Grassi clinches the series’ first victory, Beijing, 2014.
Nelson Piquet Jr., season one champion, racing for NEXTEV TCR in the first Monaco E-Prix. F1 legend Alain Prost, Team Principal Renault e.dams until season five. Simona de Silvestro: the only female to race a full season in Formula E.
Sam Bird’s Envision Virgin Racing car featuring the Union Jack at the London E-Prix in 2016. Simona de Silvestro in action, Berlin, 2016.
António Félix da Costa in Mexico City, March 2016. Sébastien Buemi, Formula E legend and driver with the most wins. Jérôme D’Ambrosio at the Formula E debut in Paris in 2016.
Envision Virgin Racing drivers Sam Bird and Jean-Éric Vergne, Berlin, 2016. Second win in Monaco: Sébastien Buemi, 2017. Nick Heidfeld swaps cars in Buenos Aires, February 2017.
Lucas di Grassi celebrates his victory at the Julius Baer Zurich E-Prix in 2018. Viewers cheer on Lucas di Grassi, Hong Kong, 2019. Edoardo Mortara wins his first Formula E race, Hong Kong, 2019.
DS Techeetah’s André Lotterer in New York, July 2019. The new Gen 2 car and BMW both make their Formula E debut in season five.
Venturi Racing’s Susie Wolff, first and only female team principal, and driver Felipe Massa. CHAMPION AND CHALLENGER
Students of the EPFL Racing Team preparing the car for a last test session prior to their departure for a race in Hockenheim, Germany.
34 Future Mobility AMZ students explaining the current car and the concepts behind it to new team members.
TWO RACING TEAMS PROFILED
Future Mobility 35 A pair of teams, a pair of views. One at the top of motor racing. The other lower down, but rising like a rocket. Both in a class you’ve never heard of.
Author: Eric Johnson
ormula what? You might know Formula 1 (plus acceleration, efficiency, and cornering, and teams are its variants 2, 3, and 4), and maybe Formula E, evaluated based on their designs, cost controls, and but this is different. Formula Student (FS) is business plans. a motor racing series between universities. It For student racers, FS is a labour of love. Although builds on a tradition of engineering competi- they usually gain some academic credits, they don’t Ftions: think of duels in concrete canoes or of battling earn money – and that in exchange for long, gruelling robots. The idea is to apply knowledge gained in the hours of design, build, test, and re-test. Technology is classroom to a practical challenge, in this case 1) build- a challenge, but equally so is management: of time, ing the best car and 2) getting to the finish line first. money, material, and team members. FS is a textbook FS flies under the radar of most racing fans, but it chance to learn what’s not in the textbooks. is large and well-established. The league counts about So it’s no wonder that FS does not fly under the 700 teams, mostly from Europe but also the US (where radar of auto makers and suppliers. Sponsors include it started in 1981), as well as Australia, Brazil, India, and the great and the good of those industries, not to Japan. They jam in three motor categories: internal mention a host of lesser-known names, looking to lo- combustion, electric, and driverless (i.e. no human cate their next generation of talent. There are also driver, the pilot is a computer). Competitions, which many sponsors outside of motoring, such as Julius take place during students’ summer breaks, are more Baer, which sponsors two FS teams in Switzerland ... than a dash from A to B. Cars also compete in tests of let’s take a look under their hoods.
Modelling work for the next cars is already underway at the AMZ offices in Zurich.
36 Future Mobility Dario Messerli, AMZ CEO and mechanical engineering student at ETH Zurich.
At the top but still being challenged: ids, which are as tricky to understand as they are to Academic Motorsports Club Zurich (AMZ) pronounce. “The first time we presented this concept,” In the offices and workshop of AMZ in Zurich’s Tech- Messerli says, “judges were scratching their heads about nopark, there’s an unmistakable atmosphere – of vic- them for two days.” tory. For good reason: in three years so far of FS’s driv- Still, hurdles remain. Most notable is the inverter erless racing, the team from Zurich’s Federal Institute that transmits electricity from the battery to the mo- of Technology (ETH) has won every time. In 2016, tors. Last year’s model turned out to be overambitious, they set the world record for acceleration of an electric looking great in theory but too often failing in prac- car: 0–100 km/h in 1.513 seconds. In their 13 years of tice. Getting it right will be a key issue this season. racing, they’ve achieved high rankings in competitions And that, with a complete turnover of team members. involving human-driven cars, with both electric and Other than Messerli, who last year was in operations combustion motors. and in charge of aerodynamics, the entire 2020 team So had success gone to their heads, when, last is different to 2019’s. “We intentionally start with a fresh year, they made public their know-how – algorithms, simulations, software, and all – of autonomous driving? No, says team CEO Dario Messerli, they gave away their hard-earned expertise to competitors because co-opetition is very much in the spirit of FS. Even at the hardest-fought competitions, teams openly share knowledge and often spare parts as well. “We think “We think that by that by helping each other, we will all get better,” says the third-year undergraduate student in mechanical helping each other, engineering. AMZ has already gotten better, if not best, in we will all get better.” several areas. Rather than running on a single engine Dario Messerli at the back, their cars have motors, developed by the team, that are built into each wheel. Top-flight aero- dynamics have been discussed with Formula 1 design legend Willem Toet, and materials are about as light as can be. Chassis suspension is adjusted continuously by shock absorbers based on magnetorheological flu-
Future Mobility 37 group every year,” he says: “This maximises innovation, we didn’t have any experience,” he says. But through but we have to be careful not to make the same mis- skill, persistence, and probably some luck, the team takes over and over.” came together. Which emboldened them to dream As for Messerli himself, after competitions finish grandly. They started by thinking outside the box, of next summer, his first aim is to finish his degree. Then incredible designs and innovations, but soon realised he hopes, as do many of his colleagues, to go profes- they first needed a box – and creating even that was not sional into racing or even aerospace. “Working with a easy. “Quite soon we realised the most important thing,” team to develop prototypes – that’s what I want for a Georges recalls. “The car has to work.” career.” With that practical focus, soon it did. Engineering started literally where the rubber meets the road – with From scratch to success: the tires, because that’s where propulsion happens. EPFL Racing Team (EPFLRT) The team purchased an off-the-shelf quartet of racing It all started in 2017 with an idea, and a rather vague slicks, the first of many make-or-buy decisions. Rims, one at that. In his third, final year of study for a Bach- buy; motor, buy; battery, make; the latter because a elor of Mechanical Engineering at Lausanne’s Federal team member swore he could do it. As the season wore Institute of Technology (EPFL), Pierre Georges faced on, this proved problematic: the battery was heavy and the usual question: what to do for a senior project? troublesome, and only one team member really knew He came to an unusual answer. After a bit of googling, how it worked. All told, management challenges prob- the motor racing-fan stumbled across FS. He figured ably outweighed technical ones. that if Zurich could do it, Lausanne could too, and so The car did indeed work, though, acquitting itself together with a colleague, he posted a message on modestly at two 2019 races. EPFLRT is now raising the Facebook, asking about any potential interest. When bar for 2020 and beyond. The organisation and its plans 30 fellow students had volunteered after only 24 hours, are tighter, more supporters and sponsors are on board, the plan suddenly grew legs. With another six months and the team has been busy learning from its friendly of organising, in early 2018, the EPFL Racing Team was competitors in Zurich and elsewhere. “We aim to catch born, with Georges as its CEO. up,” states Georges, “and to reach the top five in the What sounds like an easy start wasn’t really. “We next three to four years.” didn’t have a workshop, we didn’t have an organisation,
Switzerland’s speedster students Team: AMZ EPFLRT Location: Zurich Lausanne Staff: 80 40 Cars: Electric, Electric driverless Website: www.amzracing.ch www.lausanneracingteam.ch
There’s always room for improvement: AMZ team members discuss potential future upgrades in their workshop.
38 Future Mobility And the winner is …
In Formula Student, the electric and driverless winners are determined based on two event categories: static and dynamic. But there are some important differences when it comes to the individual events they participate in and how these are weighted. For electric cars, greater importance is given to the dynamic events, while for driverless cars, the static events are more heavily weighted. Here’s a breakdown:
Electric point system Driverless point system
100 75 75 75 100 100 100 100
75 75 150 75 75 300
200 325
Static events Dynamic events
Business plan Skid pad Endurance Each team presents a business plan for The vehicles must drive a figure-8 circuit. The cars are classified according to the their prototype to a panel of judges who The lap time provides a comparative value amount of energy consumed over a track play the role of potential investors. for the car’s maximum lateral acceleration. distance of 22 km.
Cost and manufacturing Acceleration Trackdrive The teams submit a cost assessment for The car’s acceleration is measured from The vehicles do 10 laps on a 300–500 m the production of the car, which, together a standing start over a distance of 75 m. course, where they have to navigate with the team’s understanding of the manu- around cones. facturing process, is evalu ated by the jury. Autocross In the autocross event, the vehicles must Engineering and design cover a 1 km track. The rankings determine Students submit a description of their car, the starting positions for the endurance outlining the objectives of the design and competition. the engineering behind it, and how these will be implemented. Efficiency The efficiency score is calculated based on fuel and energy consumption relative to speed.
Future Mobility 39 URBAN MOBILITY
The Volocopter VC200 takes to the skies in its first manned flight.
40 Future Mobility TAKES FLIGHT
Volocopter and its fleet of electric, fully autonomous air taxis promise to revolutionise urban air mobility.
Author: Adriana Wattengel
t all started with a yoga ball. In- copter made its first manned flight spired by recreational drones, over Singapore’s Marina Bay in software engineer Stephan Wolf October 2019. set out to prove that the same easy-to-use technology could be Bringing urban air mobility to life Iapplied to passenger aircraft. Once So what is the Volocopter exactly? he was sure the concept would work, It is a fully electric, emission-free he enlisted the help of his childhood VTOL aircraft. Nine batteries pow- friend Alexander Zosel, and Volo- er its 18 independent rotors, offer- copter was born. Powered by 16 elec- ing a high degree of redundancy tric rotors attached to a seat fitted and safety. And compared to its onto a yoga ball – which doubled as noisy, petrol-fuelled older cousin – the landing gear – the world’s first the helicopter – it is practically si - manned electric vertical take-off lent. “Based on all these features, we and landing (eVTOL) flight took think that this is the perfect air ve- place on an airstrip in southwestern hicle to be used within urban cen- Germany: it lasted 90 seconds. tres,” says Volocopter CEO Florian This seemingly crazy idea has Reuter, beaming. come a long way in the almost nine Imagine ordering your auton- years since that first flight in 2011. omous Volocopter via an app, being The yoga ball and the original seat whisked away by air, and arriving at have made way for a sleek two- your destination quickly and com- seater cabin. And thousands of fortably, while avoiding bumper- to- unmanned test flights and several bumper traffic below. That is pre- iterations of the aircraft later, Volo- cisely what Volocopter envisions.
Future Mobility 41 And what about range anxie- ty? Reuter is not too concerned, “This is the perfect air vehicle to given that the Volocopter is de- signed for short urban routes. Think be used within urban centres.” airport to city centre, business dis- Florian Reuter trict to train station, or hotel to shopping district. “The Volocopter can take us up to around 22 miles, or 35 kilometres, on a single charge, and 93 of the top 100 cities in the building entire rail networks in al- York, where everybody needs to get world have their major airport with- ready crowded city centres. to Manhattan from the airports and in that distance,” he explains. you have these bottlenecks at bridg- Of course, this futuristic vision Ideal for megacities es and tunnels.” But he believes that requires landing and take-off points. Which cities are likely to benefit forward-thinking, tech- oriented cit- “Clearly, we’ve set out to provide most from urban air taxis? Practical- ies such as Dubai and Singapore, mobility as a service. It’s not just ly any large, congested megacity both of which have already hosted about the vehicle; we need to pro- with little available space to build test flights (Volocopter’s first au- vide a whole ecosystem in order to new infrastructure, “in particular cit- tonomous unmanned test flight be able to provide that service,” ies where you have a lot of water- took place in Dubai in 2017), are says Reuter. So Volocopter has part- ways or topography-related obstruc- primed to embrace autonomous air nered with landing infrastructure tions such as mountains,” explains taxis before any other city. “Tech- provider Skyports to build specially Reuter. “A perfect example is New nology-wise, we are already there,” designed ‘VoloPorts’ in select loca- tions, the first prototype of which was unveiled in Singapore. As it turns out, building a series of stra- tegically placed VoloPorts is easier, faster, and more cost-effective than
The first prototype of the Volocopter was powered by 16 electric rotors and used a yoga ball as its landing gear.
A manned Volocopter soars above Singapore’s Marina Bay.
42 Future Mobility says Reuter, who expects commer- cial autonomous flights to take off within the next two to five years, pending regulatory approval. The VoloPort, a prototype for a Volocopter landing and take-off station, is unveiled in Singapore. Urban air mobility for all The concept of aerial ridesharing may not be entirely new – other companies such as Uber already operate air taxi helicopter services in Manhattan, for instance – but with trips priced at over USD 200 (and a huge carbon footprint) per
passenger, they are prohibitively city’s existing transportation net- expensive for most. Volocopter, work. “It has to be intermodal,” however, has an entirely different Reuter explains. Depending on the flight plan: “We would like to go user’s location, desired destination, beyond the niche of a transporta- and current traffic situation, this tion mode for the richest 5 per cent intermodal app will then suggest and become the perfect transpor- the optimal transportation mode tation mode for the most painful 5 for that trip. “And more often than per cent of our routes, where it ac- not, that can be – but doesn’t have tually makes sense to go into the to be – the Volocopter.” air,” Reuter explains. “And manu- factured and operated at scale,” he continues, “we can offer this at an attractive price so that a majority of people can afford these routes.”
Cities of the future All of this fits perfectly with Reu- ter’s personal vision for a future city: “My wish is that we get back to Article and video a city that is full of nature, that is To see the Volocopter in action, watch green, and that has a good quality our interview with Florian Reuter: of life. And the way to get there is www.juliusbaer.com/en/insights/future- mobility/urban-mobility-takes-flight by using mobility in the smartest way possible.” This means that ide- ally, Volocopter’s app and services would be fully integrated into a
Future Mobility 43 ECONDUCE:
SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY IN MEXICO CITY 44 Future Mobility In smog-ridden Mexico City, car ownership has been rising at an unprecedented rate. Econduce, a scooter- sharing platform, is socialising transportation in an eco-friendly, efficient, and sustainable way in a move to counteract this trend.
Author: Alan Grabinsky
Econduce’s Ariadna Saavedra demonstrates how the scooter-sharing platform works.
Future Mobility 45 During the second half of the twentieth century, Mexico An exception is Econduce, a fleet of electric scoot- City’s metropolitan population more than quadru pled ers that have become ubiquitous in the central city in size. As one of the first urban regions to reach the neighbourhoods. The project was conceived in 2010 20 million inhabitant mark, mobility has been a top when Eduardo Porta and Alejandro Morales – two child- concern for Chilangos (as the city’s residents are known) hood friends – ran into each other in England, where for decades. they were both studying Environmental Systems Engi- In the 1990s, the city was also one of the most neering (Morales at University College London and polluted in the world. Smog days, during which schools Porta at Cambridge). were closed and cars with certain licence plate num- After this first unexpected encounter in the UK, bers were banned from circulation, were a normal part they went on to meet frequently, and often found of everyday life. themselves talking about city life back home and how The causes of bad air quality are multiple, but traffic and air pollution decreased the quality of life. among the most significant emitters of pollutants are It was during these discussions that they came up with cars. Thanks to a shift in the type of gasoline used – the idea that led to the Econduce model: a socially and despite some setbacks – the city’s air quality has shared fleet of electrically chargeable, ion battery improved over the past two decades. But private car scooters that can reach up to 55 km/h and go as far as ownership is gaining ground, with the number of private 35 kilometres on a single charge. vehicles more than doubling during the same period (from 2.5 million in 2000 to over 5 million in 2017). Establishing the first scooter-sharing system in Latin America The push to socialise transportation At the time when the idea for Econduce was conceived, Despite these trends – or precisely because of them – a only one similar service existed – in San Francisco. So, number of initiatives have been launched that seek to when they introduced the idea back in Mexico in 2013, socialise transportation, especially for short-distance people were understandably sceptical. But, not to be commuting. One highly successful programme has stopped, Alejandro and Eduardo did a ‘friends and been Ecobici, a public bike sharing programme in Mexi- family’ investment round and were able to secure gov- co City consisting of docks from which one can borrow ernment funding. bicycles for a very low cost. However, when distances In 2015, Econduce, the first electric scooter-shar- become greater and a motorised vehicle is required, ing programme in Latin America, was inaugurated. At moving beyond a 5 kilometre range is still a hassle – un- the time, it consisted of 50 scooters docked in 10 sta- like in many European and American cities, motorised tions, mostly around the city’s central neighbourhoods. vehicle-sharing platforms have made little headway in All the platform technology was produced in-house, Mexico City, in part because of high car-theft rates. with radio frequency identification cards used as keys
An Econduce e-scooter recharges in central Mexico City.
46 Future Mobility The future: expansion in Mexico City and beyond “In the end, the goal is 2017 was also the year that Mexico City opened its parking regulations to the company and allowed it to to transform the city’s park its e-mopeds in designated neighbourhoods – so not only at docking stations – just like privately owned streets and create an scooters. Econduce thus became one of the first plat- forms to use this kind of free-floating model – which engaged community now can be found throughout the city for vehicles like bicycles and scooters of the non-motorised type. of citizens.” All in all, it is thanks to the exponential growth of Ariadna Saavedra its user base that the start-up has been able to impact how people move. On 19 May 2019, the company cel- ebrated its millionth trip, and to date, Econduce’s fleet has covered more than 6.5 million kilometres and saved more than 1,000 cubic tons of carbon dioxide from being released into the atmosphere. to unlock the vehicles and identify members. The scoot- Today, Econduce boasts a fleet of 700 e-mopeds ers were specially designed to be ecologically sound: (a new two-person model was recently introduced) and their motor efficiency is 80 per cent (gasoline motors: 40 dock-charging stations, with much more in store 20 per cent) and they produce zero carbon emissions. for the future. Yet, in an area as big and dynamic as “We want to elevate the quality of life in cities Mexico City, this still isn’t enough: “We plan to keep around the country, but especially in Mexico City,” growing,” says Saavedra. “We are almost going to says Ariadna Saavedra, Brand Manager of Econduce. double our fleet this year and expand so that we can “We do this by reducing sound and air pollution. In the further position ourselves in Mexico City. And we want end, the goal is to transform the city’s streets and cre- to operate in other cities in Mexico and Latin America ate an engaged community of citizens.” in the middle and long term.”
Following the market in its transition towards ‘digital’ To use Econduce, people must register both their age and driving licence, and download the Econduce app. In a next step, they go through an induction period – consisting of personal and online tutorials. Just like for other ride-sharing initiatives, people have expressed concerns over the safety of both passengers and pe- destrians. The scooters are insured in case of any mis- Article and video hap; but, according to Saavedra, since its launch, the To find out more about Econduce and accident rate has been below 1 per cent. its founders, watch our video at: www.juliusbaer.com/en/insights/ Two years after its inauguration in 2017, as cheap future-mobility/econduce-building- smartphones and affordable internet plans flooded sustainable-mobility-for-a-latin- the Mexican market, the Econduce staff decided to american-megacity migrate their services to a purely digital platform. That same year, the project won the prestigious FIA (Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile) Smart Cit- ies Global Start-Up Contest and was awarded USD 100,000 in funding to support the project implemen- tation. During the award ceremony, jury member and founding partner of Digital Leaders Ventures, Monty C.M. Metzger, stated: “What we are talking about here is about the future of new mobility.”
Future Mobility 47 CHANGING GEARS
Car-Free Days held on Sundays in Jakarta’s city centre attract throngs of pedestrians.
Turning Jakarta’s clogged and smog-filled streets into an efficient and sustainable urban transport system is no easy task. But the city is taking measures to counter the major congestion problem and breathe new life into how its people get around.
Author: Noor Amylia Hilda
48 Future Mobility magine getting up to go to work every day and of East Kalimantan in Borneo. But not all hope is lost for getting stuck in gridlock traffic for hours on end. Jakarta, as it is now pushing more than ever to embrace For the 1.4 million people who travel into central new ideas to become a healthier, more efficient city. Jakarta daily, the long and agonising commute is a reality of everyday life. As one of the most congest- Slow but steady steps Ied cities in the world, Jakarta is also notorious for high Congestion in high-density Jakarta is an issue the city’s air pollution levels. That’s not all; the megacity is also authorities have been grappling with for decades now. extremely vulnerable to climate change, with rising sea While a number of billion-dollar projects to build new levels making it one of the fastest sinking cities in the public transport infrastructure have been in the pipe- world. line for years, the city has also looked at improving The environmental crisis in Jakarta, which is home existing options. Most notably, it has expanded Trans- to over 10 million people, might sound dire. Its over- Jakarta, the bus rapid transit (BRT) system, which population problem is just one of the many issues that accommodates an average of over 800,000 users led to the Indonesian government’s decision to relo- daily, a figure that has doubled in the span of less than cate the nation’s capital to the less populated province three years. IN JAKARTA
Smog is only one of the adverse effects of the city’s congested streets.
Future Mobility 49 Jakarta’s Mass Rapid Transit system was Construction of the tracks for Jakarta’s Light Rail Transit system. inaugurated in March 2019.
To accommodate the influx of riders, minibus cent in 2017, showing the biggest improvement out of services have been integrated to complement the ex- all 403 cities ranked in the index. isting bus operations, connecting even more suburban On a bigger scale, the city’s new billion-dollar areas to the heart of the city. The move has earned Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) project aims to make a sig- Jakarta an honourable mention at the 2020 Sustain- nificant contribution to tackling the city’s crowded able Transport Award, where the city is also being highways. The MRT line, which had its fair share of applauded for its recent efforts to enhance pedestrian setbacks, was inaugurated in March 2019 and features facilities and develop hubs that incorporate different a 16 kilometre subway line running south to the city’s modes of transport for a more seamless mobility system. downtown area. Now it only takes a fraction of the However, improving the public transport infra- time to travel from the southern neighbourhood of structure is just one aspect of the overall situation. Lebak Bulus to downtown Jakarta. A second phase Another dilemma is the rising ownership of private with a further 8 kilometre line running northward is cars. To overcome this, restrictions have been placed underway and is set to launch in 2024. Additionally, on private vehicles, such as allowing vehicles with an ambitious plan for an expanded 44.4 kilometre odd- numbered registration plates on the streets on Light Rail Transit system (LRT) that is to connect the odd-numbered dates, and vice versa for even-num- Greater Jakarta metropolitan area is expected to be bered vehicles. The city has even adopted a Car-Free realised in 2021. Day held on Sundays on the main streets connecting to During the subway’s inauguration ceremony, the landmark roundabout Monumen Bundaran HI in Indonesian President Joko Widodo hailed the subway the city centre. line as representing a new culture of transportation These initiatives are likely to have played a pivot- and stressed how citizens needed to fully embrace the al role in the recent improvement in congestion levels. new concept in order for the city to further develop The TomTom Traffic Index reveals that Jakarta has up- into a sustainable hub. graded its ranking on the list of the most congested cities in the world. The city’s average congestion levels went down to 53 per cent in 2018, compared to 61 per
50 Future Mobility Electric racing in the heart of Jakarta
The city of Jakarta will be hosting a form the backdrop for the E-Prix. Formula E race for the first time in As an emerging market for electric June 2020, underlining its commit- vehicles, Indonesia, and Jakarta in ment to sustainable mobility. The particular, is a fitting location for circuit will be situated right in the the E-Prix, which is set to showcase heart of the city and will see the sustainable technology through a National Monument in Merdeka fully electric street racing spectacle. Square, a symbol of the republic’s success in gaining independence,
Electric dreams Anyone who has ever experienced the traffic in Jakarta knows it’s hard to miss the dizzying numbers of motor- cyclists weaving in and out of traffic. It is therefore high time that zero-emission modes of transport be considered as a means of reducing the city’s carbon footprint. And this is indeed the case. Indonesian ride- hailing start-up Gojek recently tested electric motor- bikes in their fleet. And another Southeast Asian ride- hailing company, Grab, is jumping on the e-scooter trend by introducing a new service called GrabWheels. As the first e-scooter rental service in Indonesia, it is proving to be a popular mode of transport for short- distance travel in the city. With President Widodo aiming for Indonesia to become the second biggest electric vehicle producer in Southeast Asia, green technology is certainly high on the city’s agenda. A presidential decree was signed to accelerate the development of electric vehicles in the country in a bid to boost greener transportation in the future. While Jakarta still has a long way to go before it fully develops and smoothens out the rough edges of its mobility solutions, there’s no denying that it is mov- ing in the right direction by setting priorities to benefit the people as they progress towards a cleaner and more liveable city.
Scooters and motorcycles are a popular mode of transportation for manoeuvring through the city’s crowded streets.
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