FUTURE MOBILITY Special Report Driverless cars and electric vehicles: Berlin: A city with a clear vision Interview with Sébastien Buemi: The trends shaping mobility. for urban mobility. The Formula E driver talks shop. THE MOBILITY REVOLUTION Flying taxis and fleets of driverless vehicles may not be a common sight just yet. But mobility as we know it is currently at a crossroads that is set to dramatically change how we get from A to B in the not too distant future. he more than one billion cars Championship, with which Julius It is impossible to predict ex- on the road worldwide are Baer has partnered closely since actly where the changes we are wit- clogging our streets and the very first race back in 2014, are nessing in mobility will take us, but cities, giving rise to endless also helping to boost the popularity it is safe to say that technology is traffic jams and a chronic of these vehicles. set to make mobility cleaner, safer, Tlack of parking – daily headaches We believe that the true mo- and more accessible for everyone. experienced by many that cost the bility revolution, however, will take global economy billions every year. place in the autonomous driving Even more pressing, however, is the segment. Early predictions foresaw damage that these vehicles are un- these vehicles quickly becoming leashing on our health and the en- mainstream. Instead, we are seeing vironment. Mobility must therefore a somewhat delayed emergence change – and quickly. thereof, and primarily in niche seg- At Julius Baer, we are con- ments such as slow-speed shuttles vinced that this combination of and delivery vehicles. These niche factors means the future of mobili- applications are opening up oppor- ty is electric. For us, it is not a ques- tunities for exciting and entirely tion of if, but at what pace electric new services and markets. vehicles (EVs) will spread and even- In this report, we take a closer Norbert Rücker tually replace the traditional inter- look at the future of mobility, not Head of Economics & nal combustion engine vehicle. Al- only on land, but also in the air. Next Generation Research Julius Baer though EVs currently account for We explore how cities are adjusting only 3.5 per cent of global car sales, their transport models to accom- this is set to change as driving modate new, cleaner alternatives ranges increase, charging infrastruc- for their citizens and the environ- tures expand, and buyers have more ment, and how shared mobility ser- models to choose from. Initiatives vices are revolutionising the way such as the ABB FIA Formula E people get around. Future Mobility 1 INSIGHTS What’s going on in the markets? Which mega- trends impact your portfolio? And how can you connect the dots of your personal wealth? INSIGHTS, our digital thought leadership hub, provides answers. www.juliusbaer.com/en/insights IMPRINT Publisher: Julius Baer Group Ltd. Photo Credits Editor-in-Chief: Corene Sullivan Front cover: Klaus Vedfelt Art Direction and Editorial Design: C3 Schweiz AG Pages 4–9: Saddington Baynes Proofreading: Supertext AG Pages 12–13: Shivraj Gohil / Spacesuit Media Image Editing: RTK Medientechnik AG Pages 14–15: Lou Johnson / Spacesuit Media Print: WOHLER Druck AG Page 16: Bettmann / Contributor Page 18 from left to right: Science Museum (The British Railway For more information about Julius Baer please visit: www.juliusbaer.com Locomotive, HMSO), via Wikimedia Commons; Unknown, © Julius Baer Group, 2020 via Wikimedia Commons; Unknown, via Wikimedia Commons Page 19 from left to right: JVillemard, via Wikimedia Commons; The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) is an independent non-profit JVillemard, via Wiki media Commons; Nantucket Historical Association, organisation that promotes responsible forest management throughout Nantucket, US, via Wikimedia Commons (1918); NASA the world. Julius Baer cares for the environment and this publication Page 20 from left to right: America’s Electric Light and Power Companies; was therefore printed exclusively on FSC-certified paper and with Mike Lynch Cartoons. Painting by Fred Freeman (1906–1988) 100% renewable energy by WOHLER Druck AG (climate-neutral in Page 21 from left to right: Sunset Boulevard; cooperation with Foundation myclimate). jmortonphoto.com & otogodfrey.com Page 22: Hinterhaus Productions Page 23: Jean-François Page 24: Adam Berry Page 25: Ulrich Baumgarten neutral 01-19-172135 Printed Matter myclimate.org Pages 26–33: Shivraj Gohil / Spacesuit Media Page 33 bottom: Lou Johnson / Spacesuit Media Page 34: Matthieu Bourgois Pages 35–38: Thomas Eugster Page 40: e-volo GmbH Page 42: Volocopter; Nikolay Kazakov Page 43: Nikolay Kazakov Page 44: Sergio Mendoza Hochmann Pages 45–46: Scott McNamara Page 48: Didier Marti Page 49: Paulus Rusyanto Page 50: JOKO SL; Creativa Images Page 51: imagean 2 Future Mobility CONTENTS 4 Here comes the revolution 34 Champion and challenger: An in-depth look at the tranformation taking Two racing teams profiled place in personal mobility. Engineering students put their skills to the test in the Formula Student racing series. 10 Infographic: Making mobility move again Four major trends that are changing mobility 40 Urban mobility takes flight as we know it. Volocopter, the fully electric air taxi, is ready for take-off. 12 Sébastien Buemi: The high-voltage racer 44 Econduce: Sustainable mobility The Formula E driver talks about his career in Mexico City highlights and the future of mobility. Going green in the Latin American megacity with electric scooters. 16 10 mobility predictions that were dead wrong Some of the most preposterous ideas ever put 48 Changing gears in Jakarta forward about how people will get around in The metropolis is taking major steps to create the future. an efficient and sustainable urban transport system. 22 No car? No problem! Berlin is leading the charge when it comes to 52 Important legal information new urban mobility solutions. 26 Pioneering moments Key moments in Formula E’s history captured by photographer Shivraj Gohil. Future Mobility 3 HERE THE RE 4 Future Mobility COMES Today’s car is on its way out. Petroleum fuels are yielding to electricity, private automobiles are being replaced by ‘mobility services’. Most importantly, human drivers are giving way to robots. Personal mobility, as we know it, will be radically transformed. Author: Eric Johnson VOLUTION Future Mobility 5 t had to be Elon Musk, didn’t it? In November 2019, The message couldn’t be any clearer: the future of the serial entrepreneur, who has revolutionised one automobiles is electric. Moreover, it is just one part of industry after another, delivered to a conference the coming revolution in mobility that will continue of German automakers his latest sensation. Ever far beyond electrification. Let’s take a closer look. the showman, Musk theatrically revealed that his I company Tesla will soon be building cars just outside Mobility’s not moving Berlin. Electric cars, that is, right in the home and As most of us know first-hand, today’s transport has heartland of the internal combustion engine. its fair share of problems. So did the great and the good of Germany’s auto Gridlock is misery. Traffic jams waste time and en- manufacturers scoff at the outsized ambition and po- ergy. And more places are becoming more miserable – tential threat of this South African-born, American- world traffic keeps getting worse, say statistics from bred upstart? Hardly. The hall rang with cheers from TomTom, a company that monitors roads globally. auto bosses as the CEO of Volkswagen, the world’s Congestion in Western Europe, estimates a similar largest producer of conventional cars, hailed Musk as a company called Inrix, annually costs an average motor- pioneer, thanking him “for pulling, for pushing” electri- ist nearly USD 1,000 worth of time and money. Car fication. The very next day, subsidiary VW America’s pollution is problematic, too. Breathing urban air can CEO called electric vehicles “the future of mobility.” be similar to smoking cigarettes, aggravating lung ailments and even contributing to cancer. Smog also defaces property – just look at the blackened buildings in some inner cities. In the United Kingdom, for exam- ple, it causes hundreds of millions of pounds in prop- erty damage every year. 6 Future Mobility This is prodding some cities to sideline cars. Berlin, Electrified drive for example (see page 22), aims to eliminate private EVs have been welcomed by many governments with automobiles altogether. Other places are also head- subsidies, exemptions from taxes and fees, privileged ing in that direction, starting with eventual bans on parking and driving, and free recharging. This booster- conventional internal combustion vehicles. France, ism has ramped electrics’ sales from almost zero in Germany, Norway, and Sweden aim to phase them out 2010 to nearly 3 million in 2019. That’s only a bit less by 2030/2040. China’s province of Hainan is moving than 4 per cent of all cars, but the slope is steep. Julius right alongside: its phaseout will finish in 2030. This Baer expects that by 2025, EVs will capture up to 10 is red meat, of course, to Elon Musk and his fellow per cent of global auto purchases. electrifiers. Their coming growth will still be government- Electric vehicles (EVs) fix tailpipe pollution, be- helped, but the Bank expects the main magnet will be cause they have no tailpipe. They don’t solve gridlock the interest of ordinary motorists. This will bloom as it in the short term, but in the longer term, they will help. dawns on buyers that electrics are not just affordable, they can actually be cheaper than conventional cars. Yes, EVs tend to cost more at the dealership, but elec- tricity is priced far lower than petrol or diesel, and en- gines use it more efficiently.