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INSIDE Summit of the Americas April 17-19 in Trinidad and Tobago, Two U.S Vol. XI, No. 4 www.cubatradenews.com April 2009 IN: Raúl’s Reshuffle OUT: Trying to stamp his mark of pragmatic problem solving Carlos Lage, 57 General and teamwork on government, Raúl Castro presided over José Amado Ricardo Guerra the biggest government restructuring in Cuba since the lost his job crisis year 1994. of cabinet secretary Cabinet secretary On March 2, the Council of State announced the release ? of 10 ministers, appointment of eight new ministers, and expansion of portfolios for two ministers. As part Felipe Pérez Roque, 43 Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, 51 of the reshuffle, the ministries of foreign trade a n d f o r e i g n lost his job Foreign minister investment were merged, as were of foreign minister those of the food i n d u s t r y a n d fishing. Otto Rivero Torres, 41 Rodrigo Malmierca Diaz, 52 The majority of the appointees — including at least two of the three military men — can be considered technocrats with ample lost his leadership Foreign investment of the “Battle of Ideas” and trade minister experience in their fields. After adding three soldiers to his cabinet, 10 military men are now in top positions. According to official communication, the cabinet Marino Murillo Jorge, 48 reshuffle is part of an effort to make government more José Luis Rodríguez, 63 efficient and distribute functions more evenly. The most Economy minister tangible result of the recent changes is the elimination of lost his job and vice president parallel structures within the institutions of the state. of economy minister With the release of Otto Rivera, who had been in Continued on next page Obama may ease travel, permanently President Barack Obama is pondering whether to ease Cuba travel restrictions via executive order, before facing anti- embargo pressure from Latin American heads of state at the INSIDE Summit of the Americas April 17-19 in Trinidad and Tobago, two U.S. newspapers reported. Oil: Offshore activity speeding up.........................page 7 A travel-easing law passed in early March by Congress is Cupet, on its own, says it’s coping OK..................page 7 only temporary and leaves restrictions intact (see page 9). Anti-travel ban bill gets big send-off.....................page 8 Citing “senior administration officials,” both the Washington Cuba cuts spending.............................................page 10 Post and Wall Street Journal said Obama is considering instructing the Department of Treasury to provide “more Opinion: Embargo easing poses challenge..........page 3 leeway to ease the licensing requirements.” Analysis: U.S. tourism scenarios..........................page 3 The “decision is not yet final,” one official said, according to the Washington Post. By the Numbers: Cuban tourism........................page 14 The executive order would allow Cuban Americans to visit family as often as they want, and lift limits on remittances, according to the Wall Street Journal. But the Washington Continued on page 8 ‘Raúl’s Reshuffle,’ from previous page OUT: IN: charge of Fidel Castro’s “Battle of Ideas,” the future of José M. Myiar Barrueco that program is cloudy. The “Battle” has been a richly Raúl de la Nues Science minister, funded program that superseded ministries. Also, the now also in chage new science minister is now in charge of Cuba’s biotech lost his job of Scientific Pole “Scientific Pole,” which had previously reported directly of foreign investment to the Council of Ministers. minister Lina Pedraza Rodríguez One foreign observer in Havana interpreted the changes as an expression of “Raúl’s different style of governing.” Minister of finance “In Fidel’s system, only one person and prices Georgina Barreiro Fajardo took all the decisions. Until maybe mid- 2006, Fidel and his shadow cabinet lost her job micromanaged many aspects of the María del Carmen of minister of finance Concepción González economy. Now, you have ministers that and prices are really in charge of their portfolio.” Minister of food Many of the new faces are fairly unknown, even to industry and fishing Cubans. The biggest question mark is General José Amado Ricardo Guerra, who replaces the popular Carlos Lage Fernando Acosta Santana, 47 as cabinet secretary. Little more is publicly known than General Salvador Pardo Cruz the fact that he was secretary of the current minister of lost his job defense, and that he worked under Raúl when the younger of iron, steel and Minister of iron, Castro was defense minister. heavy machine steel and heavy minister machine industries Former President Fidel Castro supported his brother’s moves by defenestrating two well-known politicians continued on page 5 Note from the Publisher Congress is awakening to the reality that the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba hurts ordinary Americans more than it does the Castro government. As the new administration Cuba Trade & Investment News is a monthly publica- considers revising the hardline position of the Bush tion of Trade & Investment Publications LLC (TIPs), Administration, a bipartisan group of U.S. representatives Tampa, FL, USA. CTIN is distributed to subscribers via and senators, plus important Cuban American leaders within mail or e-mail. the Cuban-American community, staged a noteworthy press Publisher Andrew Goddard conference in Washington (see news on page 8). The Cuban- P.O. Box 13752 Americans “hit it out of the park,” leaving little doubt about Tampa, FL 33681-3752 USA the support for “travel for all” from the Cuban-American Tel: 813 839 6988 community to travel to Cuba without U.S. restrictions. Fax: 813 831 3811 Foreign visitors are central for the Cuban economy, and [email protected] their growing numbers positively affects all other areas. The www.cubatradenews.com “Florida Strait” column on p. 3 shines a light on the role U.S. Editor Johannes Werner visitors may play in easing Cuba’s cash crunch. But with the Tel: 941 330 0303 waning embargo, as the column points out, U.S. policy makers [email protected] must think about how to extend credit to Cuba. Editorial Advisors If you have already peeked at the back of the book, you Chris Aberle, FCStone, Des Moines may have discovered the “By the Numbers” section. This Kirby Jones, US-Cuba Trade Assn., Wash. DC feature is our response to requests from readers whose job David Lyons, Daily Bus. Review, Miami requires recent, relevant and reliable statistics. Finally, I wish John McAuliff, FFRD, New York to welcome our growing readership in Canada, the United Phil Peters, Lexington Institute, Washington Kingdom, Europe and Latin America. SUBSCRIPTIONS Call 813 839 6988. One year $350. In Canada and Mexico, add $15 postage. COPYRIGHT NOTICE No part of this publication Andrew Goddard — [email protected] may be copied, photographed or duplicated without TIPs’ consent. 2 Florida Strait Analysis Easing the travel ban: The impact The easing of U.S. travel restrictions is imminent. Below, we are compiling news and perspectives on the economic impact. Most Cuba travel players believe Very timely, Cuba almost finished an that U.S. travel will pick up in the near expansion of Terminal 2 and customs future. facilities at José Martí International An official of Havanatur Airport in Havana, the building told Reuters that Cuba’s main where all U.S. flights arrive By Johannes Werner tour operator for U.S. tourists and leave. expects “a good influx of But, although much of the Embargo easing U.S. visitors” as a result of recent tourism infrastructure on poses challenge relaxing travel restrictions in the island was built with U.S. the United States. Meanwhile, tourism in mind, the Cuban Congress’ passing of a temporary Rob Hodel, owner of Tico government is downplaying travel-easing law in March is only a Travel in Fort Lauderdale, Rep. Kathy its preparations for a possible baby step. But it is the first indication went through the expense of Castor: Free tourism boost from the United of something bigger: A U-turn in issuing a press release via PR family visits States. Washington’s Cuba politics. Newswire, saying he expects would triple The tourism ministry “is That’s, of course, great news. a rush of travelers. travel volume preparing to be able to respond However, the unfreezing of U.S.- What triggers this optimism to the market,” Deputy Tourism Cuban relations also has tricky is the sharpest U-turn in U.S. Minister María Elena López consequences for U.S. companies politics on Cuba in decades. Once we recently told reporters in Havana. Current already doing business on the island. accept the tidal change in politics as a projections, however, are solely based on That’s because, once the United fact, the question is for what kind of Cuba’s traditional feeder markets, she States definitely eases payment growth to plan. said. Cuba continues to project Canada restrictions, they will lose their cash- Of course, it all depends on politics. as the No. 1 source of tourism. in-advance privilege, the unusually The travel-ban easing law passed Given that much depends on how comfy cushion the Cubans were in early March allows family visits Cuba reacts to changes on the U.S. forced to provide their U.S. suppliers once a year instead of every three side, we decided to be as cautious as the due to U.S. restrictions. years. This will sure produce a rise in Cubans. The most likely scenario for U.S. exporters, let’s be frank: travel. However, since the law only the industry over the mid-term seems Thanks to this cash privilege, temporarily blocks enforcement of to be a return to Clinton era-style your sales to Cuban state importer restrictions that will otherwise remain restrictions, allowing limited travel for Alimport have been almost eerily on the books, and since travel agencies all Americans.
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