Would Terrorists Go Nuclear? Motivation and Strategy
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WOULD TERRORISTS GO NUCLEAR? MOTIVATION AND STRATEGY Robin Mark Frost B Joum. (Rhodes University) 198 1 B.A. (Hons.) (Rhodes University) 1982 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS In the Department of Political Science O Robin Mark Frost 2005 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring, 2005 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. Approval Name: Robin Mark Frost Degree: Master of Arts Title of Thesis: Would Terrorists Go Nuclear? Motivation and Strategy Examining Committee: Chair: Professor Alexander Moens Department of Political Science Professor Douglas Ross Senior Supervisor Department of Political Science Associate Professor Tsuyoshi Kawasaki Supervisor Department of Political Science Professor Brian Job External Examiner Department of Political Science University of British Columbia Director, Centre of International Relations, Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia Date DefendedIApproved: &r: 22/65 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY PARTIAL COPYRIGHT LICENCE The author, whose copyright is declared on the title page of this work, has granted to Simon Fraser University the right to lend this thesis, project or extended essay to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. The author has further granted permission to Simon Fraser University to keep or make a digital copy for use in its circulating collection. The author has further agreed that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by either the author or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for financial gain shall not be allowed without the author's written permission. \ Permission for public performance, or limited permission for private scholarly use, of any multimedia materials forming part of this work, may have been granted by the author. This information may be found on the separately catalogued multimedia material and in the signed Partial Copyright Licence. The original Partial Copyright Licence attesting to these terms, and signed by this author, may be found in the original bound copy of this work, retained in the Simon Fraser University Archive. W. A. C. Bennett Library Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC, Canada Abstract This thesis is an attempt to assess the likelihood that terrorist groups would use true nuclear weapons if they had them. It is highly unlikely, although not altogether inconceivable, that terrorists could obtain a hnctional nuclear weapon unless they were directly state-supported. However, non-nuclear radiological dispersion or emission devices could be used. A well-hnded terrorist religious cult, such as Aum Shinrikyo, would pose the greatest risk of nuclear terrorism because it would not be constrained by law or conventional morality and would be undeterrable. The next most dangerous would be a religiously-motivated transnational group, such as a1 Qa'ida, which claims a divine mandate, has no fixed homeland, and has a small, dispersed constituency. National- revolutionary or separatist groups would be least likely to use nuclear weapons because their homelands are vulnerable to retaliation and they could be constrained by their constituencies. Right-wing and single issue groups are 'wild cards'. Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my exceedingly patient wife, Tess, to our wonderful young sons, Griffin and Alric, five and nearly three years old respectively at the time of writing, and to the memory of my mother, Barbara Joan Frost, who died within weeks of my beginning this degree. I hope they are all pleased - and not too startled - to see me finish an M.A. Acknowledgements I must acknowledge first and foremost the the unflaggingly good-humoured and enthusiastic support provided by my senior supervisor, Prof. Douglas Ross of the Department of Political Science at Simon Fraser University, who stimulated my academic interest in security studies with an excellent graduate introduction to the field. That was followed by his supervision of a directed reading course that led to my initial paper on nuclear terrorism and eventually to this thesis. All of my refereed publications developed from courses taught or supervised by Prof. Ross. Prof. Tsuyoshi "Yoshi" Kawasaki, the Department's Graduate Chair and my second supervisor, also deserves my thanks for his friendly and gracious assistance, not to mention his considerable patience. I would also like to thank all the members of the Department, faculty and staff alike, who welcomed me into their academic home and made it possible for me to discover that nearly twenty years of relative intellectual torpor had not entirely eroded my abilities. My grateful thanks also go to the many academics and practitioners in the broad field of security studies, too many to name individually, who made me feel as though I might have something to offer the discipline, attended my presentations, corresponded with me, and bought me the odd beer. In particular, I must thank the Canadian Association of Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS) for sponsoring me to attend two of their outstanding annual conferences and for awarding me the 2004 graduate Weller Prize, and the Canadian Consortium for Asia-Pacific Security (CANCAPS) which likewise sponsored my attendance at two conferences, afforded me my first real academic speaking opportunity in lo these many years, and published my first peer-reviewed academic paper. Table of Contents . Approval .............................................................................................................................11 ... Abstract ..............................................................................................................................111 Dedication ..........................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................v Table of Contents ...............................................................................................................vi Chapter 1: Introduction .......................................................................................................1 Chapter 2: Nuclear Terrorism: An Overview .................................................................... 5 Nuclear Terrorism and the Temptations of Polemic .A Short Case Study .............. 17 Chapter 3: Terrorist Psychology and Motivation ..............................................................23 . Motivation and Constraints ........................................................................................32 Nationalists/Separatists ..............................................................................................34 Social-Revolutionaries............................................................................................... 41 Right-Wing Terrorism ........................................................................................42 Religious Terrorism ...................................................................................................45 Cults and new religions: The 'Rajneeshis' and the Aum Shinrikyo .................. 48 Single-issue terrorism ................................................................................................53 Chapter 4: Terrorism and Nuclear Deterrence .................... ..........................................56 Chapter 5: Is A1 Qa'ida a Nuclear Threat? ......................................................................66 A1 Qa'ida and Jihadist Strategy .................................................................................75 Chapter 6: Conclusion .......................................................................................................86 Appendix A: Selected Militant Organisations and the Nuclear Threat ............................ 91 Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement. acronym for Harakat al-Muqawamah al- Islamiyya) ...........................................................................................................91 Hezbollah (Party of God. Hizb'allah. Hizbollah. etc) ....................................93 Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ. Harakat al-Jihad al-Islami al-Filastini) .............. 95 Jemaah Islamiyah (Jamaah Islamiyah. etc.. J.I.) ................................................96 NationalistlSeparatist Terrorists ..............................................................................100 Ansar al-Islam (Partisans of Islam) ..................................................................100 Jamaat al-Tawhid wa'l-Jihad (Unity and Jihad Group. A1 Tawhid network) .. 107 Chechen Separatists ..........................................................................................108 Appendix B: Glossary .....................................................................................................115 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................121 Chapter 1 : Introduction Discussion about terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) typically begins, and even more frequently ends, with essentially technical